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MLN – May 2022 monthly update

Operational Update12 May 2022MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for April was down (7.1%), while

the adjusted NAV return was down (6.5%). This compared with our

global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50%

hedged to NZD), which was down (3.9%).

Global equity markets dropped in April, given headwinds from

numerous ongoing factors including inflation, rising interest rates,

and growth and supply chain concerns stemming from COVID

lockdowns in China. Developed market equities were down 8% in the

month, bringing year-to-date losses to 13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq

Composite Index fell 14% for the month and is down 21% year-to-

date.

In contrast to falling share prices, corporate fundamentals still appear

to be strong. As an example, the US market is seeing a strong

start to Q1 earnings season, with 76% of companies so far beating

expectations. Companies that have reported so far have reported

average earnings growth of 8%, with continued growth expected

throughout the year despite the economic headwinds.

Portfolio Changes

Earnings season has begun, with 14 portfolio companies reporting

during the month. The results highlighted solid underlying growth

and execution by most of our companies, although Netflix results

were disappointing, and Amazon’s results showed that its rapid

infrastructure expansion and cost inflation are posing near-term

challenges.

Mastercard, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and our

bank holdings First Republic and Signature Bank all delivered

solid results. As did homebuilder NVR and aerospace composites

manufacturer Hexcel.

Positive contributors to performance in the month included Dollar

General (+7%) and Dollar Tree (+1%). While there has been

limited new news for these companies, we expect that as inflation

bites, consumers will trade down with value for money increasing

in importance. This should benefit Dollar General and Dollar Tree

which operate more than 18,000 and 16,000 stores across the US

respectively, all within convenient distance of the majority of American

consumers.

Tencent (+1%) recovered towards the end of the month, as

sentiment improved on news signalling a pullback of government

crackdowns on the industry. Regulatory scrutiny has been a

persistent overhang to market sentiment for China’s tech industry

during the past year, as a raft of regulatory announcements were

issued to rein in monopolies and promote common prosperity in the

country. Tencent (and our other Chinese holding Alibaba) are more

aligned with policymakers’ new goals as they play an important role

in the digitalisation of commerce and industry in China. We remain

confident in the long-term prospects for both Tencent and Alibaba.

Mastercard (+2%) reported strong earnings and continues to

execute well. Payment volumes saw impressive growth driven by

pent-up demand for travel and leisure and remained strong during

the quarter despite rising inflation. The company is likely to benefit

from higher prices due to inflation, although this may eventually affect

consumer spending if it becomes too high or persistent.

Detractors from performance in the month included PayPal, Netflix

and Amazon.

PayPal (-24%) sold off significantly at the start of April along with

growth and technology stocks more generally. PayPal partially

rebounded towards the end of the month after reporting earnings

that were better than feared. After a period of rapid investment over

the last two years to attract new customers as ecommerce growth

surged, PayPal has experienced slower growth in recent quarters.

In response to this PayPal has reduced its growth guidance and is

refocusing on a return to cost control and measured expansion as

was the focus pre-pandemic. We believe PayPal remains very well

positioned to take share in the fast-growing e-commerce and digital

payments segments. Despite the recent headwinds, they are still

expected to grow revenue (ex-eBay) by 15%+ this year.

Netflix (-49%) fell materially in the month after reporting earnings and

providing weaker than expected guidance. Shares are now trading at

late-2017 levels, despite the company having doubled its subscriber

base and is generating 2.6-times the revenue back then. Netflix

lost 0.2mn subscribers in Q1 – the first time in over a decade the

streaming service has seen a net loss – and expects a further 2mn

losses in Q2. The company attributes subscriber headwinds primarily

to macroeconomic pressures, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and

competition – but no doubt recent subscription price hikes are also

having an impact. We continue to believe Netflix is a quality business,

with dominance in global streaming and content spend leverage,

and is advantageously positioned in the structurally growing SVOD

(streaming video-on-demand) industry. Netflix is a new holding which

we initiated at a small position. It currently has a small 1.5% weight in

1

Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

May 2022

Warrant Price

$

0.00

$

1. 1 6

Share Price

MLN NAVPREMIUM

1

$

0.98 18.5

%


as at 30 April 2022

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 30 April 2022

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.20

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

194m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$225m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

the portfolio and as with any company that delivers a disappointing

result of this magnitude, we are undertaking a detailed review of our

investment thesis.

Amazon (-24%) reported its first operating profit loss in seven years

at its quarterly earnings update. Inflation and capacity expansion

added $6 billion in costs, weighing on profitability. Over the last two

years, Amazon has been through a significant investment cycle,

doubling the size of operations and workforce. These investments

contributed two-thirds of the additional cost. We are confident

Amazon will return to profitability as the company grows into this

newly created capacity and as the company’s sales mix continues to

shift towards the highly profitable segments of Amazon Web Services

(cloud computing) and Amazon Marketing Services.

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

Meta (-10%) had a similar theme to PayPal going into earnings. With

sentiment negative on the stock, the earnings and guidance were not

as bad as feared and Meta rose c.18% after its results. The company

noted that Reels now makes up more than 20% of user time on

Instagram and is growing quickly. While currently under-monetised,

demand to date is very positive for Reels and we expect Meta will be

able to monetise short-form videos successfully in the future

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 30 April 2022

31

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

7

%

HEALTH CARE

21

%


FINANCIALS

24

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

GEOGRAPHICAL

SPLIT

as at 30 April 2022

8

%

ASIA

77

%

NORTH

AMERICA

3

%

INDUSTRIALS

1

%


SOUTH AMERICA

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

12

%

12

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY


WEST

EUROPE

Nov
2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.00

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

4.00

$

5.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2020

Nov

2021

3

APRIL’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

during the month

NETFLIX

-49

%

PAYPAL

-24

%

AMAZON

-24

%

ALPHABET

-19

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 30 April 2022

META PLATFORMS

(Previously FACEBOOK)

9

%

ALPHABET

7

%

TENCENT

7

%

PAYPAL

6

%

ALIBABA

6

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 30 April 2022

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(5.8%)(12.5%)(15.3%)+20.8%+20.0%

Adjusted NAV Return(6.5%)(17.1%)(15.5%)+9.5%+11.7%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (7.1%)(16.8%)(14.5%)+12.8%+15.2%

Benchmark Index^(3.9%)(6.3%)(2.7%)+8.5%+8.8%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

STONECO

-18

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 30 April 2022

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-

issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»On 19 April 2021 a new issue of warrants

(MLNWE) was announced

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every

four Marlin shares held

»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on 17

May 2021 based on a 14 May 2021 Record Date

and were listed on the NZX Main Board from 18

May 2021. (Information pertaining to the warrants

was mailed/emailed to shareholders in early May

2021)

»The final Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.18

»The Exercise Date for the warrants (MLNWE) is

20 May 2022


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated

to it from the Board to invest

according to the Management

Agreement and other written

policies. Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters

and Harry Smith (Senior Investment

Analysts) have prime responsibility

for managing the Marlin portfolio.

Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based

in Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Alistair

Ryan (Chair), Carol Campbell,

Andy Coupe and David

McClatchy.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.