MLN – June 2022 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for May was down (2.9%), while
the adjusted NAV return was down (3.2%). This compared with
our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was down (0.3%).
Global markets saw significant intra-month volatility in May before
ending broadly flat for the month, as macro concerns including
inflation, tightening monetary policy, China COVID restrictions,
and the conflict in Ukraine continue to weigh on sentiment. US
headline inflation hit 8.3% in April, and the US Federal Reserve
increased rates by 50bps in May, its biggest hike in 22 years.
Developed market equities were modestly up 0.2% (year to date
down 13%). Value stocks continues to fare better than growth,
with the MSCI World Value index up 2% in the month while the
MSCI World Growth Index declined 2%.
US wrapped up its first quarter (Q1) earnings season in May, and
earnings performance continued to be robust with 76% of S&P
500 companies beating expectations. These companies reported
average Q1 revenue growth of 14.6% and net income growth of
8.5%, however investors remain unimpressed, with average post-
reporting price performance just 0.2% better than the market.
Concerns around slowing economic growth and low consumer
sentiment continue to pressure market expectations and share
prices.
Portfolio News
Hexcel (+6%) continued its strong performance of recent months
as exceptionally high demand for global travel is driving increased
expectations for new plane orders, which benefits Hexcel as a
leading manufacturer of composite parts for new aircraft.
Signature Bank (-11%) shares fell on the collapse of
algorithmically backed stablecoins such as Terra. The bank has
circa US$30bn in digital asset deposits which are related to
cryptocurrencies. While Signature Bank holds these deposits, the
bank has no exposure to price swings in cryptocurrency. Of the
US$30bn, around US$7bn of deposits are related to stablecoins.
Given the volatility, management provided a mid-quarter update
where they confirmed their stablecoin deposits relate only to
coins that are 100% backed by US dollars or equivalent. While
deposits are down around 1% this quarter, as participation in
cryptocurrencies has fallen with volatility, management still expects
to grow interest-earning assets at the mid-teens level as they
deploy some of the US$30bn cash on their balance sheet.
Gartner (-10%) was down following an earnings announcement,
despite another quarter of strong results and guidance ahead of
expectations. While demand remains high for Gartner’s research
products, the market is concerned around their ability to grow
their sales force in a tough hiring environment, which could impair
future growth. From our conversations with the company, they are
confident in their ability to meet their hiring targets and we believe
the sell-off was unwarranted.
Salesforce (-9%) declined during the month, likely due to
concerns that broader macro weakness would see slowing
demand for Salesforce’s front office product suite. Salesforce
reported Q1 earnings after market close on 31 May (US time), with
the stock rising 9% in after-hours trading on increased margin and
non-GAAP earnings guidance.
Floor and Décor (-5%) reported robust 1Q earnings at the start
of the month. The company continues to execute on their strong
nationwide store roll out, with 166 warehouse store locations
currently and 400 as their long-term target. Existing stores are also
growing, as they mature and contribute meaningfully to revenue
growth. Floor and Décor continues to see strength in their Pro
customer segment, with Pro customers still benefiting from a solid
pipeline of work ahead, which keeps them coming back to Floor
and Décor stores. The company also reiterated their previously
provided FY22 guidance which the market liked, given current
macroeconomic concerns.
Shares in US discount retailers Dollar Tree (-1%) and Dollar
General (-7%) headed sharply lower in the middle of the month
on weak earnings reports from large US retailers Walmart and
Target, which the market extrapolated to the dollar stores. Both
companies subsequently reported better than expected Q1
earnings and outlook, on which shares rebounded. Dollar Tree’s
profitability benefited, as it increased prices from US$1 on all
items, to its new US$1.25 price point, across all 8,000+ Dollar
Tree banner stores. Meanwhile, Dollar General reiterated its full
year earnings guidance as the company’s product expansion
and cost saving initiatives helps offset profit margin headwinds
from inflation and supply chain cost pressures. Both companies
upgraded sales guidance – we believe this demonstrates the
defensive nature of dollar stores in the current inflationary
environment, as consumers seek value for money and record
high gas prices drive them to shop closer to home. Dollar General
and Dollar Tree have a combined 34,000 stores located within
convenient distance of the majority of US consumers.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
June 2022
$
1. 2 7
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
0.95 33.0
%
as at 31 May 2022
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 May 2022
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.20
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
199m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$253m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
China tech companies Alibaba (-1%) and Tencent (-4%) also
reported March quarter results in the month. Earnings per share
at both companies declined 23% year-on-year as they cycle
regulatory restrictions and face headwinds from slowing economic
growth and COVID lockdowns in China. While the decline was
disappointing, this appears largely priced in by the market going
into earnings, and with lockdowns easing and the government
introducing economic stimulus, we see the operating environment
improving from here. After a period of heightened regulatory
oversight, government officials and regulators have also taken
a more supportive tone around China’s tech industry. Both
companies are focused on managing costs and streamlining non-
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
core businesses to improve margins going forward. We maintain
confidence in Alibaba and Tencent’s market dominant positions in
their key business segments, and positively view their long-term
prospects.
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 May 2022
31
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
7
%
HEALTH CARE
22
%
FINANCIALS
23
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 31 May 2022
8
%
ASIA
76
%
NORTH
AMERICA
2
%
INDUSTRIALS
1
%
SOUTH AMERICA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
11
%
11
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
WEST
EUROPE
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.00
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
4.00
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
Nov
2021
3
MAY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
STONECO
+7
%
DOLLAR GENERAL
-7
%
SALESFORCE INC
-9
%
SIGNATURE BANK
-10
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 May 2022
META PLATFORMS
8
%
ALPHABET
8
%
AMAZON
7
%
PAYPAL
6
%
FLOOR & DECOR
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 May 2022
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+9.5%(1.1%)(11.4%)+25.0%+21.2%
Adjusted NAV Return(3.2%)(11.3%)(17.3%)+10.0%+10.7%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (2.9%)(11.0%)(16.3%)+13.5%+14.0%
Benchmark Index^(0.3%)(3.9%)(3.4%)+10.3%+8.8%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
GARTNER
-11
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 May 2022
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Warrants put Marlin in a better position to grow
further, operate efficiently, and pursue other
capital structure initiatives as appropriate
»A warrant is the right, not the obligation, to
purchase an ordinary share in Marlin at a fixed
price on a fixed date
»There are currently no Marlin warrants on issue
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest
according to the Management
Agreement and other written
policies. Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters
and Harry Smith (Senior Investment
Analysts) have prime responsibility
for managing the Marlin portfolio.
Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based
in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.