MLN – September 2022 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for August was down
(2.2%), while the adjusted NAV return was down (2.1%).
This compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid
Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was
down (1.9%).
Economic data during the month continued to highlight a
slowing global economy, with global manufacturing activity
reaching a 22-month low. Macro uncertainty remains
elevated. On a positive note, inflationary pressures began
easing in the month with lower commodity prices, and the
US employment data appeared strong. The Federal Reserve
continues to be committed to reining in inflation, with the
market now generally expecting another 75bp rate increase in
September.
Developed market equities were down 4.1% in the month
(calendar year-to-date down 17.5%), while emerging markets
were up 0.5% (year-to-date down 17.2%). Value stocks again
fared better than growth stocks, with the MSCI World Value
Index down only 3% in the month (year-to-date down 10.5%)
while MSCI World Growth Index declined 5% (year-to-date
down 24.7%).
Portfolio News
Paypal (+8%) reported quarterly earnings that exceeded
expectations, announcing a cost savings program and
US$15bn of share repurchases (equivalent to c.14% of
market cap). The company also announced a new CFO.
We believe these initiatives put Paypal on a solid footing
for growing margins and earnings going forward. The core
online checkout business continued to gain market share
this quarter as Paypal’s strong value proposition and higher
conversion rates resonate with merchants and consumers.
Alibaba (+7%) and Tencent (+7%) both rose on improved
sentiment around Chinese stocks, with consumer spending
showing signs of recovery despite ongoing lockdowns.
Sentiment was also buoyed by an agreement between the
SEC
2
and China regulators over long-standing differences
around audit requirements for US-listed stocks, setting
a path to removing this risk for these names. Tencent
reported quarterly results in the month that exceeded market
expectations, and company management emphasised
their confidence in growing earnings despite a weak macro
backdrop as they continue to rationalise costs and focus
investment into core growth areas.
Gartner (+7%) posted another above-expectation quarterly
result. Demand for its core research products remain strong,
reinforcing the high value proposition of this research for
businesses as they navigate challenges around digital
transformation, inflation, and supply chains. Margin guidance
was again raised as the company optimises its cost base
post-COVID. Lastly, the company’s in-person conference
business is set to return to a more normal cadence in the
latter half of this year, creating a further tailwind to earnings
growth.
Dollar Tree (-18%) declined after reporting quarterly results
that were within market expectations and a reduced full
year earnings outlook. The company operates Dollar Tree
and Family Dollar stores, with the reduction mainly driven
by lowering prices at Family Dollar to close its price gap
with competitors as well as absorbing inflationary cost
increases. Dollar Tree stores continue to benefit from the
banner increasing its fixed price point from US$1 to US$1.25,
with segment margin improving year-over-year. We remain
confident in Dollar Tree’s value proposition as higher income
consumers trade down in the face of inflationary cost
pressures and expect Family Dollar’s pricing move will help
drive sales productivity and margin improvement over time.
Salesforce (-15%) declined on its quarterly update where
the company lowered its full year revenue outlook, primarily
due to sales contracts taking longer to close as customers
become more cautious given broader macro weakness.
Despite these macro headwinds, Salesforce still expects to
grow revenue by 17% this year, and we are encouraged by
continued margin expansion, with the company maintaining
expectations for full year margin improvement despite
slower growth. Salesforce also announced a US$10bn
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (using net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
2
US Securities and Exchange Commission.
MONTHLY UPDATE
September 2022
$
1. 1 0
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
0.94 17.4
%
as at 31 August 2022
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 August 2022
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.17
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
201m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$221m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
share repurchase program (equivalent to c.6.5% of market
cap), which we consider to be a sensible move as current
share price levels do not adequately reflect the company’s
business-critical value proposition and long growth runway,
in our view.
Portfolio Changes
There were no substantive changes to the portfolio in August.
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 August 2022
30
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
9
%
HEALTH CARE
23
%
FINANCIALS
25
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 31 August 2022
8
%
ASIA
79
%
NORTH
AMERICA
2
%
SOUTH AMERICA
12
%
11
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
WEST
EUROPE
1
%
CASH
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.00
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
4.00
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
Nov
2021
3
AUGUST’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
DOLLAR TREE
-18
%
SALESFORCE
-15
%
ICON
-13
%
GREGGS
-10
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 August 2022
AMAZON
8
%
PAYPAL
8
%
META PLATFORMS
8
%
ALPHABET
8
%
FLOOR & DECOR
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 August 2022
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(2.7%)(11.8%)(25.5%)+16.0%+18.0%
Adjusted NAV Return(2.1%)+0.3%(22.4%)+6.5%+9.9%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (2.2%)+0.0%(21.8%)+9.7%+13.0%
Benchmark Index^(1.9%)(1.8%)(10.2%)+7.8%+7.8%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
EDWARDS
LIFESCIENCES
-10
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 August 2022
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Warrants put Marlin in a better position to grow
further, operate efficiently, and pursue other
capital structure initiatives as appropriate
»A warrant is the right, not the obligation, to
purchase an ordinary share in Marlin at a fixed
price on a fixed date
»There are currently no Marlin warrants on issue
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated to
it from the Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement and other
written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is
managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters
and Harry Smith (Senior Investment
Analysts), and Lily Zhuang and Daniel
Moser (Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.