Marlin Global Limited logo

MLN – September 2022 monthly update

Operational Update11 September 2022MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for August was down

(2.2%), while the adjusted NAV return was down (2.1%).

This compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid

Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was

down (1.9%).

Economic data during the month continued to highlight a

slowing global economy, with global manufacturing activity

reaching a 22-month low. Macro uncertainty remains

elevated. On a positive note, inflationary pressures began

easing in the month with lower commodity prices, and the

US employment data appeared strong. The Federal Reserve

continues to be committed to reining in inflation, with the

market now generally expecting another 75bp rate increase in

September.

Developed market equities were down 4.1% in the month

(calendar year-to-date down 17.5%), while emerging markets

were up 0.5% (year-to-date down 17.2%). Value stocks again

fared better than growth stocks, with the MSCI World Value

Index down only 3% in the month (year-to-date down 10.5%)

while MSCI World Growth Index declined 5% (year-to-date

down 24.7%).

Portfolio News

Paypal (+8%) reported quarterly earnings that exceeded

expectations, announcing a cost savings program and

US$15bn of share repurchases (equivalent to c.14% of

market cap). The company also announced a new CFO.

We believe these initiatives put Paypal on a solid footing

for growing margins and earnings going forward. The core

online checkout business continued to gain market share

this quarter as Paypal’s strong value proposition and higher

conversion rates resonate with merchants and consumers.

Alibaba (+7%) and Tencent (+7%) both rose on improved

sentiment around Chinese stocks, with consumer spending

showing signs of recovery despite ongoing lockdowns.

Sentiment was also buoyed by an agreement between the

SEC

2

and China regulators over long-standing differences

around audit requirements for US-listed stocks, setting

a path to removing this risk for these names. Tencent

reported quarterly results in the month that exceeded market

expectations, and company management emphasised

their confidence in growing earnings despite a weak macro

backdrop as they continue to rationalise costs and focus

investment into core growth areas.

Gartner (+7%) posted another above-expectation quarterly

result. Demand for its core research products remain strong,

reinforcing the high value proposition of this research for

businesses as they navigate challenges around digital

transformation, inflation, and supply chains. Margin guidance

was again raised as the company optimises its cost base

post-COVID. Lastly, the company’s in-person conference

business is set to return to a more normal cadence in the

latter half of this year, creating a further tailwind to earnings

growth.

Dollar Tree (-18%) declined after reporting quarterly results

that were within market expectations and a reduced full

year earnings outlook. The company operates Dollar Tree

and Family Dollar stores, with the reduction mainly driven

by lowering prices at Family Dollar to close its price gap

with competitors as well as absorbing inflationary cost

increases. Dollar Tree stores continue to benefit from the

banner increasing its fixed price point from US$1 to US$1.25,

with segment margin improving year-over-year. We remain

confident in Dollar Tree’s value proposition as higher income

consumers trade down in the face of inflationary cost

pressures and expect Family Dollar’s pricing move will help

drive sales productivity and margin improvement over time.

Salesforce (-15%) declined on its quarterly update where

the company lowered its full year revenue outlook, primarily

due to sales contracts taking longer to close as customers

become more cautious given broader macro weakness.

Despite these macro headwinds, Salesforce still expects to

grow revenue by 17% this year, and we are encouraged by

continued margin expansion, with the company maintaining

expectations for full year margin improvement despite

slower growth. Salesforce also announced a US$10bn

1

Share Price Premium to NAV (using net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

2

US Securities and Exchange Commission.

MONTHLY UPDATE

September 2022

$

1. 1 0

Share Price

MLN NAVPREMIUM

1

$

0.94 17.4

%


as at 31 August 2022

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 31 August 2022

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.17

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

201m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$221m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

share repurchase program (equivalent to c.6.5% of market

cap), which we consider to be a sensible move as current

share price levels do not adequately reflect the company’s

business-critical value proposition and long growth runway,

in our view.

Portfolio Changes

There were no substantive changes to the portfolio in August.

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 August 2022

30

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

9

%

HEALTH CARE

23

%


FINANCIALS

25

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

GEOGRAPHICAL

SPLIT

as at 31 August 2022

8

%

ASIA

79

%

NORTH

AMERICA

2

%


SOUTH AMERICA

12

%

11

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES


WEST

EUROPE

1

%

CASH

Nov
2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.00

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

4.00

$

5.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2020

Nov

2021

3

AUGUST’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

during the month

DOLLAR TREE

-18

%

SALESFORCE

-15

%

ICON

-13

%

GREGGS

-10

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 August 2022

AMAZON

8

%

PAYPAL

8

%

META PLATFORMS

8

%

ALPHABET

8

%

FLOOR & DECOR

6

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 August 2022

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(2.7%)(11.8%)(25.5%)+16.0%+18.0%

Adjusted NAV Return(2.1%)+0.3%(22.4%)+6.5%+9.9%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (2.2%)+0.0%(21.8%)+9.7%+13.0%

Benchmark Index^(1.9%)(1.8%)(10.2%)+7.8%+7.8%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

EDWARDS

LIFESCIENCES

-10

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 August 2022

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-

issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Warrants put Marlin in a better position to grow

further, operate efficiently, and pursue other

capital structure initiatives as appropriate

»A warrant is the right, not the obligation, to

purchase an ordinary share in Marlin at a fixed

price on a fixed date

»There are currently no Marlin warrants on issue


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated to

it from the Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement and other

written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is

managed by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters

and Harry Smith (Senior Investment

Analysts), and Lily Zhuang and Daniel

Moser (Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing the Marlin

portfolio. Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in

Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.