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MLN – November 2022 monthly update

Operational Update10 November 2022MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for October was down (1.8%),

while the adjusted NAV return was down (2.3%). This compared

with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap

Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was up 5.1%.

Global equities (MSCI World) were up +7.2%. US equities

slightly outperformed (+8.1%), while European equities

slightly underperformed (+6.4%) and global emerging market

equities sharply underperformed (-3.1%). The global emerging

markets weakness was entirely driven by Chinese market

underperformance.

The strong market performance was in spite of a fairly lacklustre

US reporting season. Around 65% of S&P 500 companies have

reported by early November, and excluding the energy sector,

reported sales growth is reasonably solid at +8%. However,

earnings growth is weak at -6%. Generally, the materials, large

tech and financial sectors have dragged down the reported

growth. These results are however backward looking. Analysts

have downgraded the year ahead earnings by 2% since the

earnings season began and earnings have been downgraded by

3.5% for the tech heavy Nasdaq.

So, why was the US market so strong? As has been the case

for most of the year, interest rates have driven the direction of

equity markets. The FED remains hawkish

2

and has signalled

that interest rate increases still have some way to go and that the

ultimate rate level maybe higher than was previously expected.


Portfolio

Alphabet (-1%), Google’s parent company, fell after its quarterly

update on revenue and margins disappointed the market. The

main drivers were softer online advertising (ad) spend, and

double-digit percentage growth in headcount as Alphabet

continues to invest in technical talent. Positively, core Search

ad revenue was resilient, growing modestly in the quarter vs

a strong prior period. Alibaba (-21%) and Tencent (-23%)

declined again in the month, alongside the wider Chinese

market. Sentiment further soured as although President Xi’s

reappointment at the 20th Party Congress was expected, other

changes in party leadership came as a surprise and fuelled

concerns that Chinese state objectives will be prioritised to the

detriment of the private sector. Ongoing COVID restrictions,

property slowdown and geopolitical tensions also continued to

depress market sentiment.

Amazon (-9%) and Microsoft (flat) were also weaker on the

back of worse than expected forward guidance. The key focus

here was cloud growth. Amazon’s cloud business (AWS)

was expected to grow at +29% in the upcoming December

quarter and the company guided to around +25%. Microsoft’s

cloud business (Azure) was expected to grow at +40% in the

December quarter and the company guided to +37%. Microsoft

cited customers “optimising” their cloud spend, while AWS said

they had seen an increase in customers focused on controlling

costs. We see the +25% and +37% growth forecast by the

two companies as reasonable, especially given the wider macro

slowdown that we’re seeing.

Edwards Lifesciences (-12%) share price fell because the

reported earnings growth in its core TAVR medical device

business came in below expectations. While the company

pointed to ongoing hospital staffing shortages in the US and a

resurgence of COVID in markets like Japan, these results fed into

concerns that the TAVR market is maturing, and growth will be

lower going forward. While we agree that the very high growth

of recent years is likely behind us, structural heart disease is still

a largely under-treated disease, and as the market leader in this

space Edwards’s has a long runway of strong market growth

ahead as it continues to drive innovation in the treatment of this

disease.

First Republic (-8%) reported a fairly sharp shift in their deposit

base from non-interest-bearing deposits to interest earning

deposits. This was not surprising given how sharply interest rates

have risen but the pace of the shift was quicker than expected.

First Republic and other higher growth banks are choosing to

continue their growth trajectory, but they are having to pay up to

fund that growth.

Mastercard (+16%) isn’t seeing weakness from its credit card

customers. And the company are on stand-by to aggressively

cut costs if the macro-outlook weakens. Both reported revenues

and earnings per share beat the markets expectations.


Meta Platforms (-31%) share price fell as the 2023 guidance

issued by management was less than what the market had

expected. Despite slower revenue, primarily driven by weaker

digital ad income, the company guided to double digit cost

growth and much higher than expected capital expenditure. The

volume of ads served grew strongly but most of this benefit was

offset by lower ad prices due to Apple’s ad-tracking changes and

mix/shift to lower priced markets and lower ad load products

1

Share Price Premium to NAV (using net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

2

Central banks are described as “hawkish” when they support the raising of interest rates to fight inflation, even to the detriment of economic growth.

MONTHLY UPDATE

November 2022

$

1. 0 0

Share Price

MLN NAVPREMIUM

1

$

0.85 17.5

%


as at 31 October 2022

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 31 October 2022

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.15

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

202m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$202m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

such as Instagram Reels. The increase in spend reflects a

combination of investments into Meta’s core advertising business

(Reels, AI infrastructure) as well as non-core Reality Labs

metaverse spend.

Netflix (+24%) rose on its quarterly update, with revenue and

subscriber numbers beating expectations and better-than-

expected subscriber outlook for the next quarter. Netflix ended

the quarter with 223m paid subscribers. On an FX-neutral basis,

average revenue per subscriber grew strongly across three out of

four regions – North America (+12% year-on-year), EMEA (+7%),

and Latin America (+16%) – regions that together contribute

88% of group revenue. Netflix continues to be a top streaming

provider in the US and UK, with 8% share of TV viewing time,

which we see as supportive of the company’s value proposition.

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

Netflix launches a new ad-supported tier in early November and

continues to roll out paid account sharing. We expect these

options to contribute robust free cash flow growth in the long-

term, by monetising non-paying Netflix users (estimated at 100m

households globally), attracting new users for whom Netflix may

previously have been too expensive, and reducing subscriber

churn.

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 October 2022

30

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

8

%

HEALTH CARE

19

%


FINANCIALS

26

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

GEOGRAPHICAL

SPLIT

as at 31 October 2022

8

%

WEST

EUROPE

75

%

NORTH

AMERICA

5

%


CASH &

DERIVATIVES

12

%

9

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES


ASIA

5

%

CASH &

DERIVATIVES

3

%


SOUTH AMERICA

3
OCTOBER’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

during the month

NETFLIX INC

+24

%

GREGGS PLC

+18

%

ALIBABA GROUP

HOLDING

-21

%

META PLATFORMS

-23

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 October 2022

ALPHABET

7

%

PAYPAL

7

%

AMAZON

7

%

FLOOR & DECOR

6

%

BOSTON

SCIENTIFIC CO

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 October 2022

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(2.9%)(9.9%)(31.9%)+11.8%+14.8%

Adjusted NAV Return(2.3%)(9.3%)(26.9%)+3.7%+7.1%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (1.8%)(9.8%)(27.1%)+6.4%+9.8%

Benchmark Index^+5.1%(3.7%)(11.4%)+5.9%+5.9%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

TENCENT HOLDINGS

-31

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 October 2022

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.00

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

4.00

$

5.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2020

Nov

2021

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-

issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants

(MLNWF) on 18 October 2022

»Information pertaining to the warrants was

mailed/emailed to all shareholders on 25 October

2022

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every

four Marlin shares held based on the record date

of 2 November 2022

»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on

3 November 2022 and listed on the NZX Main

Board from 4 November 2022

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.99,

adjusted down for the aggregate amount per

Share of any cash dividends declared on the

shares with a record date during the period

commencing on the date of allotment of the

warrants and ending on the last Business Day

before the final Exercise Price is announced by

Marlin

»The Exercise Date for the new warrants is

10 November 2023


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated to

it from the Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement and other

written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is

managed by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio

Manager), Chris Waters (Senior

Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang

and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)

have prime responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together they

have significant combined experience

and are very capable of researching

and investing in the quality global

companies that Marlin targets. Fisher

Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.