MLN – November 2022 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for October was down (1.8%),
while the adjusted NAV return was down (2.3%). This compared
with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap
Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was up 5.1%.
Global equities (MSCI World) were up +7.2%. US equities
slightly outperformed (+8.1%), while European equities
slightly underperformed (+6.4%) and global emerging market
equities sharply underperformed (-3.1%). The global emerging
markets weakness was entirely driven by Chinese market
underperformance.
The strong market performance was in spite of a fairly lacklustre
US reporting season. Around 65% of S&P 500 companies have
reported by early November, and excluding the energy sector,
reported sales growth is reasonably solid at +8%. However,
earnings growth is weak at -6%. Generally, the materials, large
tech and financial sectors have dragged down the reported
growth. These results are however backward looking. Analysts
have downgraded the year ahead earnings by 2% since the
earnings season began and earnings have been downgraded by
3.5% for the tech heavy Nasdaq.
So, why was the US market so strong? As has been the case
for most of the year, interest rates have driven the direction of
equity markets. The FED remains hawkish
2
and has signalled
that interest rate increases still have some way to go and that the
ultimate rate level maybe higher than was previously expected.
Portfolio
Alphabet (-1%), Google’s parent company, fell after its quarterly
update on revenue and margins disappointed the market. The
main drivers were softer online advertising (ad) spend, and
double-digit percentage growth in headcount as Alphabet
continues to invest in technical talent. Positively, core Search
ad revenue was resilient, growing modestly in the quarter vs
a strong prior period. Alibaba (-21%) and Tencent (-23%)
declined again in the month, alongside the wider Chinese
market. Sentiment further soured as although President Xi’s
reappointment at the 20th Party Congress was expected, other
changes in party leadership came as a surprise and fuelled
concerns that Chinese state objectives will be prioritised to the
detriment of the private sector. Ongoing COVID restrictions,
property slowdown and geopolitical tensions also continued to
depress market sentiment.
Amazon (-9%) and Microsoft (flat) were also weaker on the
back of worse than expected forward guidance. The key focus
here was cloud growth. Amazon’s cloud business (AWS)
was expected to grow at +29% in the upcoming December
quarter and the company guided to around +25%. Microsoft’s
cloud business (Azure) was expected to grow at +40% in the
December quarter and the company guided to +37%. Microsoft
cited customers “optimising” their cloud spend, while AWS said
they had seen an increase in customers focused on controlling
costs. We see the +25% and +37% growth forecast by the
two companies as reasonable, especially given the wider macro
slowdown that we’re seeing.
Edwards Lifesciences (-12%) share price fell because the
reported earnings growth in its core TAVR medical device
business came in below expectations. While the company
pointed to ongoing hospital staffing shortages in the US and a
resurgence of COVID in markets like Japan, these results fed into
concerns that the TAVR market is maturing, and growth will be
lower going forward. While we agree that the very high growth
of recent years is likely behind us, structural heart disease is still
a largely under-treated disease, and as the market leader in this
space Edwards’s has a long runway of strong market growth
ahead as it continues to drive innovation in the treatment of this
disease.
First Republic (-8%) reported a fairly sharp shift in their deposit
base from non-interest-bearing deposits to interest earning
deposits. This was not surprising given how sharply interest rates
have risen but the pace of the shift was quicker than expected.
First Republic and other higher growth banks are choosing to
continue their growth trajectory, but they are having to pay up to
fund that growth.
Mastercard (+16%) isn’t seeing weakness from its credit card
customers. And the company are on stand-by to aggressively
cut costs if the macro-outlook weakens. Both reported revenues
and earnings per share beat the markets expectations.
Meta Platforms (-31%) share price fell as the 2023 guidance
issued by management was less than what the market had
expected. Despite slower revenue, primarily driven by weaker
digital ad income, the company guided to double digit cost
growth and much higher than expected capital expenditure. The
volume of ads served grew strongly but most of this benefit was
offset by lower ad prices due to Apple’s ad-tracking changes and
mix/shift to lower priced markets and lower ad load products
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (using net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
2
Central banks are described as “hawkish” when they support the raising of interest rates to fight inflation, even to the detriment of economic growth.
MONTHLY UPDATE
November 2022
$
1. 0 0
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
0.85 17.5
%
as at 31 October 2022
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 October 2022
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.15
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
202m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$202m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
such as Instagram Reels. The increase in spend reflects a
combination of investments into Meta’s core advertising business
(Reels, AI infrastructure) as well as non-core Reality Labs
metaverse spend.
Netflix (+24%) rose on its quarterly update, with revenue and
subscriber numbers beating expectations and better-than-
expected subscriber outlook for the next quarter. Netflix ended
the quarter with 223m paid subscribers. On an FX-neutral basis,
average revenue per subscriber grew strongly across three out of
four regions – North America (+12% year-on-year), EMEA (+7%),
and Latin America (+16%) – regions that together contribute
88% of group revenue. Netflix continues to be a top streaming
provider in the US and UK, with 8% share of TV viewing time,
which we see as supportive of the company’s value proposition.
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
Netflix launches a new ad-supported tier in early November and
continues to roll out paid account sharing. We expect these
options to contribute robust free cash flow growth in the long-
term, by monetising non-paying Netflix users (estimated at 100m
households globally), attracting new users for whom Netflix may
previously have been too expensive, and reducing subscriber
churn.
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 October 2022
30
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
8
%
HEALTH CARE
19
%
FINANCIALS
26
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 31 October 2022
8
%
WEST
EUROPE
75
%
NORTH
AMERICA
5
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
12
%
9
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
ASIA
5
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
3
%
SOUTH AMERICA
3
OCTOBER’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
NETFLIX INC
+24
%
GREGGS PLC
+18
%
ALIBABA GROUP
HOLDING
-21
%
META PLATFORMS
-23
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 October 2022
ALPHABET
7
%
PAYPAL
7
%
AMAZON
7
%
FLOOR & DECOR
6
%
BOSTON
SCIENTIFIC CO
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 October 2022
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(2.9%)(9.9%)(31.9%)+11.8%+14.8%
Adjusted NAV Return(2.3%)(9.3%)(26.9%)+3.7%+7.1%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (1.8%)(9.8%)(27.1%)+6.4%+9.8%
Benchmark Index^+5.1%(3.7%)(11.4%)+5.9%+5.9%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
TENCENT HOLDINGS
-31
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 October 2022
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.00
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
4.00
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
Nov
2021
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants
(MLNWF) on 18 October 2022
»Information pertaining to the warrants was
mailed/emailed to all shareholders on 25 October
2022
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every
four Marlin shares held based on the record date
of 2 November 2022
»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on
3 November 2022 and listed on the NZX Main
Board from 4 November 2022
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.99,
adjusted down for the aggregate amount per
Share of any cash dividends declared on the
shares with a record date during the period
commencing on the date of allotment of the
warrants and ending on the last Business Day
before the final Exercise Price is announced by
Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the new warrants is
10 November 2023
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated to
it from the Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement and other
written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is
managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio
Manager), Chris Waters (Senior
Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang
and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)
have prime responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together they
have significant combined experience
and are very capable of researching
and investing in the quality global
companies that Marlin targets. Fisher
Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.