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UBS Australasia Conference Presentation

Investor Presentation13 November 2022CENUtilities

1
1

UBS Australasia

Conference

November 2022

22
Disclaimer and important information

While all reasonable care has been taken in compiling this presentation,

neither Contact nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any

other person gives any representation as to the accuracy or completeness

of this information or accepts any liability for any errors or omissions.

This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with

respect of a variety of matters. All such forward-looking statements involve

known and unknown risks, significant uncertainties, assumptions,

contingencies, and other factors, many of which are outside the control of

Contact, which may cause the actual results or performance of Contact to

be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or

implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking

statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Except as

required by law or regulation (including the NZX Listing Rules and the ASX

Listing Rules), Contact undertakes no obligation to update these forward-

looking statements for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to

the date of this presentation or to update or keep current any of the

information contained herein. Any estimates or projections as to events that

may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net

income and performance) are based upon the best judgement of Contact

from the information available as of the date of this presentation.

EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash flow are financial measures that are “non-GAAP (generally

accepted accounting practice) financial information” under Guidance Note 2017: ‘Disclosing non-GAAP

financial information’ published by the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority, “non-IFRS financial

information” under ASIC Regulatory Guide 230: ‘Disclosing non-IFRS financial information’ and “non-GAAP

financial measures” within the meaning of Regulation G under the U.S. Exchange Act of 1934.

Such financial information and financial measures (including EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash

flow) do not have standardised meanings prescribed under New Zealand equivalents to International Financial

Reporting Standards (“NZ IFRS”), Australian Accounting Standards (“AAS”) or International Financial

Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and therefore, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by

other entities, and should not be construed as an alternative to other financial measures determined in

accordance with NZ IFRS, AAS or IFRS accounting practice) measures. Information regarding the usefulness,

calculation and reconciliation of these measures is provided in the supporting material.

This presentation does not constitute financial or investment advice. This presentation does not constitute an

offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, Contact securities and may not be relied on in connection with

any purchase of a Contact security.

Numbers in the presentation have not all been rounded and might not appear to add.

All references to $ are New Zealand dollar unless stated otherwise.

Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company,

product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names,

trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and

reflectspublic announcements of intention only.

33
Presenters

Dorian Devers

Chief Financial Officer

Dorian joined Contact in December 2018 as Contact’s Chief Financial Officer.

Dorian is experienced in business transformations having led successful turnarounds of businesses in both the UK and South

Africa. He has successfully delivered several acquisitions including ones in the Australian and New Zealand energy sector. Hehas

governance experience having served on the Board of Afrox a publicly listed company and the largest industrial gases businessin

Africa, as well as being a previous Board member of Liquigasa New Zealand LPG infrastructure business.

Mike Fuge

Chief Executive Officer

Mike Fuge was appointed CEO in September 2019 and joined Contact in February 2020.

Mike was previously the chief executive of Refining New Zealand and has a long history in the energy sector, both in New

Zealand and internationally. He has previously been the chief executive of global renewable energy owner operator and

developer Pacific Hydro in Australia and held senior roles at Genesis Energy and Royal Dutch Shell Group.

3

44
<IR>

ESG CREDENTIALS

The investment opportunity in our core market is largeand in line with our unique capability which will deliver cash

flow growth ultimately flowing through to dividends

Resilient generation portfolio: Strong cash flow

generation and operational performance with

best-in-class commodity risk management

Strong balance sheet to support growth investment;

with clear distribution policy to reward shareholders

Shares offer relative value and liquidity when

benchmarked against peers

Unique geothermal expertise

Inflationary cost pressures recoverable

Committed to decarbonising

our generation portfolio and

New Zealand

Why invest in Contact?

Delivering for

shareholders

World class geothermal resources being developed, committed to deliver 1.9TWh

p.a. of renewable baseload by end of 2024

55
Sources: New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2020 snapshot, 2022 Inventory, TeRārangi

HaurehuKati Mahanaa Aotearoa 1990-2020 -He whakarāpopotoNew Zealand

Meaningful reductions in carbon emissions are possible with renewable

electricity displacing carbon intensive fuels

With New Zealand's high renewable penetration, electricity is the solution to reducing carbon emissions, not

the problem

Paris agreement target, Mt CO2e

(Transpower, 2020)

52

16

17

21

Net zero

2050

Gross

emissions

ex biogenic

methane

2

Net

growth

Other

abatement

required

Electri-

fication

Forestry

carbon

capture

0

Electrification will reduce carbon emissions

Our future energy profile

(Climate Change Commission, 2021)

29

35**

Renewable

electricity as % of

total energy use

2

Source: Climate change commission 2021 final advice

2

Based on Consumer Energy use rather than Primary Energy use

Greenhouse gas emissions by sector

(Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2020)

2022

2035

Total

electricity

(TWh)

41

51

To meet this annual emissions reduction,

Transpowerestimates 70% more renewable

generation is required to electrify heat and

decarbonisetransportation. This amounts to

~23TWh p.a.

This is the equivalent investment

of around $690m every year for

27.5 years

1

2050

Source: WhakamanaiTeMauri Hiko-Empowering our Energy Future,

March 2020 (Transpower)

1

Based on the cost of the Meridian Harapakiwind farm as per August

2022 NZX announcement ($448m, 542GWh p.a.)

**Transpowerand Climate Change Commission

analysis preceded the Government’s first

Emissions Reduction Plan: Targeting an even

more ambitious trajectory with renewables at

50% of total energy consumption by 2035

58-75

>50

66
The New Zealand regulatory framework is being adapted to deliver on this societal imperative. There is political consensus to

deliver net zero by 2050 and on the emissions reductions budgets needed to get there

Society is demanding action on climate change, with clear progress expected.

¹ While the government’s first Emissions Reduction Plan has now been released, there is ongoing work on implementation and furtherplanning

2

Coveringelectricity, hydrogen, and industry decarbonization. Terms of Reference have been released

3

Government is consulting on recommendations by the Climate Change Commission on the unit limit and price control settings of the ETS

4

Including BCG’s “The Future is Electric”; EA/Transpower’s“Future Security and Resilience Project”; EA’s Market Development Advisory Group; Wholesale Market Review (EA currently consulting on proposals)

Government

Energy

Strategy

2

Current

Tiwai

contract

ends 2024

Gas

Transition

Plan

Transport

policies

Net zero

New

Zealand

carbon

emissions

by 2050

Government

Procurement

Market

reviews to

support

highly

renewable

market

4

Significant

increase in

GIDI

subsidies

Resource

consenting

reform

Transmission

pricing and

grid

upgrades

Emissions

Reduction

Plan

1

Emission

Trading

Scheme

review

3

Potential electricity demand impactPotential renewable generation impactPotential wider electricity sector impact

In progress

Announced

New

Zealand

Battery

Project

feasibility

Climate change and regulation

7
7

Government support for decarbonisation

The Government has recently released its first Emissions Reduction Plan in response to the Climate Change

Commission recommendations

An economy-wide plan to meet New Zealand’s net zero emissions target by 2050. It includes specific actions government will undertake, as well as policies and strategies to influence

emissions from private firms. There are three key impacts for Contact Energy:

1. Target of reaching 50%

total energy consumption

from renewable sources

by 2035

Government developing an ‘Energy

Strategy’ by the end of 2024

Strategy will include an action plan

for decarbonising industry

Strategy will also consider how to

make it easier to gain consents for

renewable generation

2. A large boost in financial support for decarbonisation3. New Zealand carbon prices expected to

continue to rise, further incentivising switching

Carbon priced at $85per unit at September2022 auction. Price

is expected to rise as number of auctioned credits reduces

which is creating demand for increased electrification

Government has allocated a further $200m+ to decarbonise the public

sector, focussing on replacing coal boilers

Government has committed $650m+ over the next four years to

contribute to the costs of industry decarbonisation projects

$27.8m

$28.0m

$13.0m

$69.6m

$151.4m

$207.4m

$223.8m

$68.7m funded to date

$652.2m allocated

2019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/26

GIDI¹ Fund commitment

Carbon Price Trajectory: Estimate of the carbon

price required to achieve net zero target

New Zealand Climate Change Commission, 2021

¹ GIDI: Government Investment in DecarbonisingIndustry

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2020202520302035204020452050

$ per tonne CO

2

e (real 2019 NZD)

CCC’s 2022 cost

containment

recommendation

2

2

In July 2022 the Commission recommended a step-up in the ETS cost

containment trigger price: $171 in 2023; $214 in 2027

EU CP

8
Our strategy to lead NZ’s decarbonisation

Enablers

Transformative ways of working:

create a flexible and high-performing

environment for New Zealand’s top talent

Outcomes

Growth

Pivot our business to a new growth era that

captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation

Resilience

Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,

aligned with our ESG commitment

Performance

Realise a step-change in performance, materially

growing EBITDAF through strategic investments

Strategic

theme

Objective

Grow

demand

Attract new industrial demand with

globally competitive renewables

Grow renewable

development

Build renewable generation and

flexibility on the back of new demand

Decarbonise

our portfolio

Lead an orderly transition

to renewables

Create outstanding

customer experiences

Create NZ's leading energy and services brand to

meet more of our customers’ needs

Operational excellence:

continuously improving our operations

through innovation and digitisation

ESG: create long-term value through our strong

performance across a broad set of environmental,

social and governance factors

9
9

Positive outlook for demand

New data centre build

Data centres proposed by the following companies

Data centres looking to enter New Zeland, and energy intensive industries looking to sign up long-term renewable energy

agreements

Several credible data centre owners have publicly announced they

are planning to invest in New Zealand

The baseload characteristics of data centres make them attractive

Hyperscale

data centres

Edge data

centres

20222024

2023

DataGrid

Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names,

trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and reflectspublic announcements of intention only.

Tiwai smelter (NZAS) extension beyond 2024 appears likely:

•Aluminium economics materially improved

•Rio Tinto carbon reduction targets aligned with extension

of the renewably powered NZAS smelter, without

significant renewable energy investment

•Reduced international aluminium smelting capacity

•Strong long-term demand outlook for aluminium

A

B

C

•Transpower competed the Clutha Waitaki

Lines Project in April 2022, allowing an

additional 400 MW of electricity to flow north

Three major electricity users signed to long-term Tauhara

backed electricity signed (PPA). Genesis contract

beginning 2025 and the other two in April 2024:

15 MW / 10 years

10 MW / 10 years

62.5 MW / 15 years

Energy intensive industries

2,470

2,826

3,949

NZAS notice of

termination (Jul 20)

NZAS extension

(Jan 21)

+1,123

(+40%)

Al (US$)Al (NZ$)

Aluminium price

(/tonne)

Current

(Nov-22)

Electric vehicle uptake

Increasing uptake of EVs: 16% of all registrations in August 2022

1

¹ Ministry of Transport

10
10

Baseload thermal substitution

Despite higher expected long run electricity prices, the economics of baseload

thermal generation remains challenged with fuel costs expected to continue to

remain above estimated long run, renewable backed PPA pricing¹. The break

even gas cost reduces as carbon costs rise (as expected)

39

37

41

65

68

81

76

77

83

81

Jan-21Jan-22Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22

50

NZ carbon price ($/unit)

11

18

38

63

74

102

67

42

120

Carbon

Carbon at $85/unit2020

Gas

2021Carbon at $140/unit

85

105105

$8.9/GJ

2022 real

Thermal fuel costs at average market prices

This issue is more acute when fixed operating costs and return on capital requirements are

considered

Rising carbon costs

(+124% on Jan 2021) are

at thermal / electricity switching

points for new

boiler investments if electricity

supplied long-term through Power

Purchase Agreements (PPA)

Current

carbon price

CCC 2030

estimate

$5.6/GJ

2022 real

$/MWh

Average market prices

Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company,

product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names,

trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and reflects

public announcements of intention only.

Economic switching

range

Equivalent gas

prices implied

by long-run price

expectation

Process heat conversion and baseload thermal substitution

Positive outlook for demand

Process heat conversion

Since 2020, there has been $69m in confirmed GIDI funding for process heat conversion

projects

The Government has allocated an additional $650m over four years, with a commitment to

allocate a further $330m for industrial decarbonization post 2026/27

Application of funding will drive conversions to new electric boilers (~50MW). These

projects are expected online by April 2024

Each for

13MW

boilers

¹ Ultimate pricing for renewable PPAs will include consideration of the offtake credit rating and credit support, the location of

take, firming commitments and outage cover and term.

11
11

Market leading development pipeline

1.4

Current generation (p.a.)

0.2

0.3

Te Huka 3

(under construction)

Potential generation

under current consents

2.8

0.3

GeoFutures

(net of Wairakei retirement*)

Tauhara

(under construction)

0.4

1.41.1

0.7

Tauhara (remaining)

2.83.1

3.3

0.4

6.2

+3.0

Geothermal generation potential (TWhp.a.)

Geothermal field responses to extraction and

injection will determine the ultimate geothermal

generation potential beyond current consents.

Wairakei field

Tauhara field

Ohaakifield

*Expected enthalpy decline at Wairakei is expected to be offset through continuous improvement projects

2021

Potential geothermal development projects

2025

Tauhara

(174MW)

Investment

approved

Under

construction

TeHuka

(51.4MW)

Investment

approved

Under

construction

GeoFutures

(168MW)

Development

option currently

being assessed

Potential generation

impact

2022202320242026

>2027

Tauhara

Tauhara

stage 2

(90MW)

Remaining

capacity

TeHuka

GeoFutures

All uncommitted investment /

closures are subject to Board

investment decisions

Wairakei

closure

(115MW)

Net addition

In line with core markets and capability

12
12

Strategic acquisitions and partnerships

to build capability

Solar: LightsourceBP partnership adds solar development capability

Wind: Roaring40s adds wind development capability

Capability and resourcing to accelerate Contact’s position in grid-scale solar

Immediate access to world-leading solar development. Strong connections

into solar supply chains and dedicated procurement functions to source solar

components for LSBP’s projects around the globe

Extensive experience, legal documentation and processes for establishing

special purpose vehicles (SPV) and undertaking project financing activities

Likely will provide on-going operations and maintenance (O&M) services to

any developed solar farms

Creditworthy counterparty to support a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

which is a major hurdle to securing project finance and de-risking a project

Significant experience in the New Zealand electricity market for both trading

and development, providing assurances to LSBP on risks associated with

entering a new market

Strong stakeholder relationships

Immediate wind development

experience having been involved in

~70% New Zealand wind projects

Deep knowledge of New Zealand’s

undeveloped wind sites, giving us a

head start

Strong balance sheet to support build

of renewable generation

Ability to incorporate and trade wind

developments into market

Strong consenting and community

relationships

Assessment and consenting of low-cost wind sites

in an exclusive partnership until April 2026

Exclusive partnership to deliver series of grid-scale solar generation projects initially targeting 250MWp by 2026

Status of wind under development

»Commenced consenting of priority South Island site

»Land access secured for a further 450MW of wind

development potential

Status of solar under development

»Commenced consenting of priority North Island site

»Land access secured for a further 55MWp of solar development potential

55

185

240

MWp

450

220

Land access securedConsenting underway

670

MW

»Contact only includes indications of capacity that are sufficiently progressed (land access secured at a minimum)

»Advanced land access negotiations are under way for additional wind and solar sites

13
13

Decarbonising our portfolio: Leading an

orderly transition to renewables

Key outcomes:

•Act on our commitment to ESG, contributing to better outcomes for our communities and the

environment

•Support secure 24x7 electricity supply for Contact’s customers and all other market

participants

•Capture the value flexibility offers to the electricity market

•Provide an integrated system to support the transition to renewables by providing risk-

coverage to the market and reducing price volatility

•Reduce fixed costs by finding cost reductions, synergies and highest-value ownership

Other external commitments

Our targets have been approved by the Science-based targets

initiative (1.5 degreewarming)

Reduce Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions 45% compared to 2018

baseline by 2026

30% reduction of 2018 Scope 3 GHG emissions by 2026

2021

2022

2023

2012 emissions

450

FY21

1,046

Closure of

Te Rapa

200

Closure of TCC

106

Geothermal

additions

37

2025 emissionsReduced

Thermal

Peaker

generation

465

648

SBTI target

2026

Thermal review announced

ThermalCodiscussion paper released

Closure of TeRapa announced

Risk management product sold to Meridian

Geothermal carbon reinjection trial on track

TCC closure once operating hours end (est2024)

Complete review of thermal assets

Scope 1 & 2 GHG emissions (ktCO

2

e)

2,698

1

1

Contact’s annual emissions return to the Environmental Protection Authority for calendar year 2012. Reflects scope 1 emissions ex diesel

14
14

Aluminium

Demand

Short-term external factors that

can influence the market

Changes as at end October 2022

in comparison to Jan 2021

Source: ASX

Short-term

wholesale

electricity

prices

There is currently extreme volatility across commodity markets, driven by a combination of global energy supply and security concerns, exacerbated by the impact of theRussian invasion of Ukraine, with subsequent

unprecedented increases in international energy prices including coal, gas and oil. Domestically, gas field outages and highcoal and gas prices have contributed to a steep escalation in wholesale electricity prices.

Gas available for

thermal generation –

Contact expected

delivery from

Pohokuraand Maui

contracts over the next

12 months down by

24% vs.6 months ago

Carbon prices up

124% to $85/New

Zealand Unit

Methanol pricing

at US$361/t

(up 4%)

Demand in line with expectation

Aluminium prices higher

(+$1,123/t, up 40%).

Increase in coal prices

+US$300/t (375%)

Wholesale risks remain elevated

Volatile hydro storage in last

6 months. Controlled

storage at ~140% of mean

(900GWh above mean) in

October.Was at ~80% of

mean (500GWh below

mean) in June

Forward wholesale pricing reflects current market conditions, includingfuel cost and availability risks

300

50

100

150

200

250

Q3

24

Q4

2022

Q4

24

Q1

23

Q4

23

Q2

23

Q3

23

Q1

24

Q2

24

Q2

26

Q1

25

Q4

25

Q2

25

Q3

25

Q1

26

Q3

26

Q4

26

Elevated wholesale pricing out to 2026

ASX Futures (Quarterly, base period)

$/MWh

Wholesale market conditions are volatile:

»Q4 2022 impacted by high hydro storage following 95

th

percentile hydro inflows in Q3 2022

»Winter 2023 impacted by lower expected gas availability, high coal and carbon costs and the

end of the ‘swaption’ contracts

»Wholesale prices reduce as new renewable generation is brought online despite the expected

closure of thermal generation capacity

2023 average

$207/MWh

2024 average

$193/MWh

2025 average

$179/MWh

2026 average

$178/MWh

15
Long-term pricing is linked to the long-run marginal costs (LRMC) of new renewable projects to meet

demand plus costs associated with firming renewable intermittency

Long run pricing expected to revert to $100 –

$110/MWh from $85/MWh previously

Previous (~2019/20)Current (2022)

Capex

$m/MW

Sector

WACC

1

LRMC

2

($/MWh)

Capex

$m/MW

Sector

WACC

1

LRMC

2

($/MWh)

Geothermal

3

4.46.5%$55 to $655.87.5%$70 to $80

Wind

4

2.26.5%$65 to $752.77.5%$85 to $95

Solar

5

Project capex up ~20% driven by higher commodity and shipping costs

HydroNot considered due to environmental limitations of new hydro development

1

Weighted Average Cost of Capital taken from broker ranges across MCY, MEL, GEN and CEN at ~6-7% in 2019/20 and

~7-8% in 2022

2

LRMC = Long run marginal cost of new renewable generation (before firming). Electricity price (real) to deliver NPV = 0

3

Announced capital costs of Tauhara (early 2021) and TeHuka(2022)

4

Announced capital costs on Turitea(2019) and KaiweraDowns (2022)

5

International Energy Agency; Analyst estimates

Variable costs($/MWh)

Variable

costs($/MWh)

Fixed cost pa

(100MW)

Gas

6

$120 to $140$200 to $220$30-35m

Coal

7

$150 to $200$400 to $450$13m

Biomass

Indicative assessment: At current carbon and fuel pricing, biomass appears

competitive to coal

8

Contact’s current view of long-run wholesale price $100-110/MWh

Historic view of long run wholesale price $80-90/MWh

Indicatve

LRMC (pre

-

firming)

Cost of firming

6

Based on heat rate and carbon intensity of Peaking plant; Capacity cost includes storage, operating costs and return on capital

7

Applies the Genesis MSO calculation in both periods (2019 being an illustration of the current MSO structure

on 2019 underlying pricing)

8

Genesis Energy Insights on Biofuels (Presentation, May 2022)

9

Differences between 2022 and 2019 averages in NZD

Inflationary conditions

(over last 3 years)

Current broker views $85-115/MWh (average $98/MWh)

»Capacity factors of solar, wind and geothermal are around 20%, 40% and 95%

respectively in New Zealand

»Any renewables being built therefore require firming. This firming can come from thermal

generation, batteries, demand response or overbuilding of renewables, but comes at a

cost

Coal

+376%

9

Gas

+40%

9

Variable

costs of

coal-

backed

firming

+140%

Variable

costs of

gas-

backed

firming

+60%

New

renewables

capex

+20-30%

Industry

funding

costs

+15%

New

renewables

LRMCs

+20-30%

(pre -

firming)

Carbon

+213%

9

16
16

Schedule

Cost

Resource / capacity

Project returns remain strong. Key

drivers have moved favourably

since FID:

✓Overall capacity increase of

14%

✓Higher electricity futures pricing

from contracted Tauhara

generation indicated by futures

prices

✓Longer term wholesale price

expectations have increased,

reflecting higher costs of

developing and firming new

generation

Translating to:

✓Higher recovery through

inflation linkages on PPA or

market pricing

Tauhara will deliver more

renewable generation than

originally expected

Expected project costs of $880m¹. This is $62m higher than previously

expected, equating to an increase of 4% on a $/MW basis

Cost increase of $202m since final investment decision (FID):

1.27% increase for marginal capacity expansion of power station, drilling

and the steam field to deliver higher output

2.39% of increase due to scope definition of the separation plant and plant

complexity both being beyond expectations

3.34% of increase associated with COVID

Estimated sources of cost increase

7%

5%

39%

Contingency

27%

10%

Commodity

prices

NZ construction

Capacity

increase

De-risk schedule

Scope definition maturity & complexity

12%

On track for first steam supplied

to power station in Q2 of

calendar 2023

Have stepped up mitigations to

de-risk the schedule

»Established project

acceleration office

»Enhanced monitoring and

performance practices

»Scaled up project team

expertise and capacity for

managing interface with

contractors

¹ Total estimated construction costs related to this phase of development (2008 –2024). Excludes capitalised interest. This will be reduced by up to $20m of commissioning revenue which reduces capital costs

Targeting 4Q of calendar

year 2023 for station on-

stream date

Capital cost up reflecting capacity addition, inflationary environment and initiatives to de-risk the schedule

Tauhara capacity further increased

Returns

Tauhara station capacity upgrade

The additional capacity

wasachieved at an

incrementalcapital cost of

~$2.5m/MW (thisis 51%

below the all-in capitalcost)

$202m

152

168

174

Feb-21Feb-22Nov-22

+22

1.26

1.40

1.45

TWhpa

Confidence on cost forecast driven by all aspects of design complete, 90% of

go forward costs contracted, a contingency of 13% on go-forward non EPC

capex, and expecting ~$20m of commissioning revenue to be capitalised

which provides a further contingency

MW

17
17

Contact indicative EBITDAF after completion of

announced investment programme

480480

520

550

720

40

88

57

41

Thermal fuel

substitution²

FY21

guidance

Normalised

EBITDAF

uplift

FY20

guidance

FY23

guidance

1

Normalised

EBITDAF

uplift

FY22

guidance

30

Tauhara-back

long-term

agreements³

15

Merchant

strip

4

Net operating

costs

5

Cal year 2025Potential re-

pricing

opportunity

of long-term

channels, net

of operating

cost inflation

1.825 TWhp.a. of new base load geothermal from

Tauhara and TeHuka expected to be generating by

2025

¹ See slide 28 of FY22 results presentation for assumptions underpinning FY23 normalisedand expected earnings

² Substitution of around 875GWh of thermal generation from TCC and TeRapa at the expected FY23 fuel cost of $115/MWh less net revenue from Fonterra linked to TeRapa (steam and electricity sales)

³ Expected revenue from long-term PPA electricity sales already signed

4

Additional sales above the FY23 contracted position (250GWh) at the 2025 ASX average price of $162/MWh (as at 11 August 2022). Estimate not revised for current ASX pricing (2025 average of

$179/MWh) or the extra 50GWh p.a. of generation now expected from Tauhara

5

Geothermal operating costs for new stations net of reduction in operating costs following the closure of thermal assets

Long-term channel

netbacks remain

below wholesale

market expectations

788T

of C02e

~450T

of C02e

Scope 1 and 2 emissions

Growth investmentDriven by pricing and channel management

922T

of C02e

446

553

537

Actual

Normalisedand expected EBITDAF ($ million)

1,046T

of C02e

1818
Appendix

19
57

43

50

48

70

942

852

-258

-252

-258

-265

-304

-51

-46

-76

-85

-80

-184

-152

-230

-185

-168

FY22FY23

normalised

and

expected

FY19

1,023

FY20FY21

1,068

1,031

Electricity

sales revenue

537

Other gross

margin

Fixed operating

costs

550

Location losses

Variable

fuel costs

505

446

553

Operating earnings (EBITDAF)

103

105

108

106

110

3.70

0.81

3.79

FY19

3.61

1.33

3.74

FY20

0.83

FY21

3.69

1.39

FY22

1.45

FY23*

4.94

4.59

4.57

5.08

5.15

RetailLong-term sales

84

83

101

117

122

1.13

1.67

1.44

0.25

1.50

0.63

FY19

0.34

FY20

2.14

FY22

0.55

1.77

FY21

0.39

1.05

2.23

FY23*

1.52

1.30

ThermalAcquired

Electricity sales

Variable fuel costs

11111

4.23

6.81

3.26

FY19

3.75

3.33

FY20

3.11

3.70

FY21

3.94

3.28

FY22

3.90

3.25

FY23*

7.49

7.08

7.22

7.15

HydroGeothermal

(i) Renewables

(ii) Thermal and acquired

93

87

131

133

141

3.02

0.86

1.04

2.10

0.93

2.17

FY19FY20

0.97

1.26

1.23

0.50

0.94

1.94

FY21

0.63

FY22

5.03

1.20

1.60

3.30

FY23*

4.29

4.10

3.66

Commercial and IndustrialSpot salesCFDs

(i) Long-term channels

(ii) Market channels

Price

($/MWh)

Volume

(TWh)

Price

($/MWh)

Volume

(TWh)

Fuel cost

($/MWh)

Volume

(TWh)

Fuel cost

($/MWh)

Volume

(TWh)

Integrated portfolio performance

Continuing operations ($m)

1

EBITDAF

5

1

5

*FY23 normalised and expected provides an indication of the expected FY23 performance from Contact in a mean hydrological year. If hydro inflows are below mean, then more thermal generation will be required to support the fixed sales position

increasing costs and reducing operating earnings in line with the thermal and acquired fuel cost. There remans price risk in forward projections. See slide 28 of FY22 results presentation for details around the contractual sales position

Actual Forecast

Actual Forecast

98

96

118

117

122

9.04

9.62

8.868.74

8.45

Price ($/MWh)

Volume (TWh)

Electricity revenue: Electricity sales (net of network,

meters costs) for all sales channels

•Pricing: Long-term channels linked to inflation, market

channels are linked to futures pricing

•Volumes: Variable, dependant on hydrology and fuel

Other gross margin: Steam sales revenue, retail gas

gross margin, broadband gross margin and other

income

•Growing broadband contribution offsetting gas retail

margin decline

Fixed operating costs: Electricity and gas

transmission, gas storage costs and other operating

costs (includes labour, maintenance expenses, cost

to serve, cost to acquire and development)

•Inflation linked

Location losses: Difference between wholesale

revenue from generation assets and costs to

purchase electricity to support sales

•Expected to approximate ~6 to 7% of electricity sales

revenue

Variable fuel costs: Gas, carbon and acquired

generation to manage risk

•Cost: Thermal generation costs continue to rise on

higher gas and carbon costs

•Volumes: Variable, dependant on hydrology and

wholesale prices vs fuel costs

1

3

4

5

2

Annual sensitivities

2

3

4

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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