Kingfish Limited/Announcement
Kingfish Limited logo

KFL – December 2022 Quarterly Newsletter

Quarterly Update24 January 2023KFLFinancials

In the December quarter, Kingfish delivered a Gross Performance Return of 2.8%
and an Adjusted NAV return of 2.6%, versus the 3.7% return of the benchmark

(S&P/NZX50G) index. The Adjusted NAV return for calendar 2022 was a

disappointing -16.1%.

It is important to reflect on why the 2022 outcome occurred. For quality growth

companies including those in Kingfish, it was largely because valuations had

become elevated, against the backdrop of low interest rates. For instance,

Mainfreight was trading at 29 times forward earnings, versus its 10 year average

of around 20 times. This is now at around 16 times. This dynamic has generally

not played out to the same degree for New Zealand’s defensive companies or

those with lower growth prospects.

With other companies in a similar situation, Kingfish now looks more attractive

on this basis than for quite some time. Plus, history tells us that the ability of

companies to grow earnings over time will drive share prices and returns to

shareholders.

Kingfish’s companies are focused on fostering successful cultures, delivering for

their customers, taking market share and sustainably becoming larger and more

profitable in future years. This came through loud and clear when we visited

companies and met their management teams numerous times over the quarter.

They are certainly not pessimistic about the future!

Mainfreight is more confident than ever on fulfilling its long-term global

growth potential

With its share price down -28% for the year, you would be forgiven for

thinking that Mainfreight had a terrible year. In fact, over the course of the

year, expectations for profit in the current and next year have increased by

double-digit percentages. All of their share price fall (and then some) is down

to a combination of the valuation becoming cheaper than historical averages,

as discussed above, and general concerns about the global macroeconomic

outlook.

At its investor day in October, Mainfreight discussed its ongoing strategy of

growing and intensifying its network through adding new branches across all

products and in all regions. This is simply a continuation of the same successful

strategy that has seen it grow its branch network to over 300 branches globally,

adding around 70 branches over the past 5 years.

Investment into new facilities is improving quality and efficiency. This assists with

customer wins and retention and therefore boosts profitability. The new facilities

include purpose-built transport (trucking) cross-docks and larger warehouses,

including in Europe and the US. The company has historically been hesitant to

invest in those regions because performance has lagged expectations. Now they

are seeing signs of real traction emerging in terms of sales, customer wins, and

profitability, which makes them confident to invest in those large and lucrative

markets.

Mainfreight's management team and board has a fantastic track record of

profitable growth. They turn up to work every day very much aligned and

hungry to grow the business in spite of a potentially tougher environment. It is

encouraging to see multiple executives add to their significant shareholdings

recently, underscoring how strongly they believe in the future prospects of the

business.

Infratil continues to benefit from strong demand for secure outsourced

data centres

During the quarter we visited the facilities of Infatil’s largest business – Canberra

Data Centres (CDC) – in both Sydney and Auckland. It was impressive to see first-

hand the calibre of CDC’s management team and their comprehensive approach

to building data centres.

Their focus on being the most secure, cost effective, and environmentally

responsible data centre offering has seen it become a market leader in Australia.

CDC’s new Auckland data centres have opened almost full, with 82 megawatts

of capacity recently added to its pipeline in Auckland (compared to 28

megawatts currently). By leveraging its Australian experience, CDC has attained

first mover advantage in the New Zealand hyperscale datacentre market.

In Sydney, CDC’s CEO Greg Boorer highlighted the company's strong growth

trajectory and confirmed that he expects to maintain earnings growth at

around 25% annually over the medium term. This is supported by CDC's

pipeline and significant customer demand, backed by continuing mega trends

including increasing data usage, increasing security requirements, and elevated

cybersecurity risks.

Infratil shares were broadly unchanged over the quarter but delivered a +11%

return in 2022.

The retirement sector is firmly out of favour as investors fixate on house

prices

During the quarter retirement village operators Ryman (-37%) and Summerset

(-18%) saw continued weakness in their share prices. For most prospective

residents the decision to move into a retirement village is a decision prompted

by changing personal circumstances and will not be delayed by house prices.

However, selling their home in a soft market is taking longer which drags on the

completion of retirement unit sales.

Ryman raised a small amount of equity for the first time in 23 years by

introducing a dividend reinvestment plan. This was in response to a surprising

increase in net debt by $400 million to $3.0 billion as at its half year. Ryman’s

debt is a key reason why we have reduced Kingfish’s position size over time

(including recently), favouring Summerset instead (which has considerably lower

gearing: 29% versus 45%).

Summerset continues to grow its unit sales year on year as it builds out its

pipeline of new villages. It is on track to increase the number of new units built

annually from 600 to 800 over time. This will be achieved in part via its fledgling

Australian operations, which will commence unit deliveries in 2023 after years

of sourcing and consenting sites. An ageing population and an increase in the

popularity of retirement living in both markets will also continue to assist over

time. In 2023 construction is likely to be at the lower end of this range, but

Summerset’s landbank and sites already underway support the medium-term

ambition.

Despite the subdued near-term outlook we think both companies are offering

attractive value as investments over the medium term.

Negative sentiment can turn into a positive

It has been reinforced this year that when market sentiment becomes particularly

negative towards a company or sector, the turning point can be very powerful.

a2 Milk has endured a tough time in recent years, but delivered solid business

performance in 2022 against low expectations. It returned +21% during the

quarter and +24% for the year.

Last quarter we flagged that Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s (FPH) recent

underperformance has largely been a result of the market’s focus on short

term risks, including a transient destocking cycle that was suppressing sales

of its nasal high flow oxygen hospital consumables. The big picture remains

attractive. During the quarter, the company delivered its half year result ahead

of expectations, as this dynamic faded away. The company then saw sequential

improvement in hospital consumables sales every month since May,


which is unseasonably strong. During the quarter FPH shares

returned +23%.

1

Share price premium to NAV (using the net asset value per share, after expense, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER

1 October 2022 – 31 December 2022

KFL NAV

$

1. 3 7

$

1. 3 8

Share Price

PREMIUM

1

0.5

%


as at 31 December 2022

Matt Peek

Portfolio Manager

16 January 2023

1

2
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is

by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or

completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial

adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund

performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

3 Months

3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(5.4%)+4.5%+10.8%

Adjusted NAV Return+2.6%+2.8%+8.5%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +2.8%+4.3%+10.7%

S&P/NZX50G Index+3.7%(0.1%)+6.4%


Non-GAAP Financial Information

Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross

performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures

is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital

allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV value,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection,

before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price

performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to

shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment

plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant

expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total

shareholder return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-

GAAP measures are described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the

policy is available at http://kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies/

LISTED COMPANIES% Holding

Auckland Intl Airport7.9%

Contact Energy3.0%

Delegat Group2.8%

EBOS Group2.3%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare15.5%

Freightways3.3%

Infratil16.5%

Mainfreight16.7%

Meridian Energy1.6%

Port of Tauranga2.4%

Pushpay Holdings2.0%

Ryman Healthcare2.0%

Summerset9.2%

The a2 Milk Company5.7%

Vista Group International3.5%

Equity Total94.4%

New Zealand dollar cash5.6%

TOTAL100.0%

PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY

as at 31 December 2022

COMPANY NEWS

Dividend Paid 16 December 2022

A dividend of 2.86 cents per share was paid to Kingfish shareholders on 16 December 2022 under the quarterly distribution policy. Interest in

Kingfish’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high with 41% of shareholders participating in the plan. Shares issued to DRP participants are at

a 3% discount to market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar, Computershare on (09) 488 8777.

PERFORMANCE

as at 31 December 2022

Kingfish Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand

Phone: +64 9 489 7094 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz

If you would like to receive future

newsletters electronically please email

us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz

SIGNIFICANT RETURNS

IMPACTING THE PORTFOLIO

DURING THE QUARTER

FISHER & PAYKEL

HEALTHCARE

+ 23

%

THE a2 MILK

COMPANY

+ 21

%

EBOS GROUP

+17

%

SUMMERSET

GROUP

-18

%

RYMAN

HEALTHCARE

- 37

%

FOREIGN TAX COMPLIANCE ACT (FATCA) AND COMMON REPORTING

STANDARD (CRS)


As a result of the New Zealand Government agreeing to participate in the exchange of information with other jurisdictions under the Foreign Tax

Compliance Act (FATCA) and Common Reporting Standard (CRS), Financial Institutions are required to undertake due diligence to determine the

account holders’ jurisdiction of tax residence. If shareholders have not previously self-certified, they will receive a Tax Residency Self-Certification form

from Computershare depending on when they first purchased their securities. Please ensure you complete and return this important document if you

have not already done so. For more information please visit the IRD website: https://www.ird.govt.nz/international-tax/exchange-of-information/

crs/registration-and-reporting or contact Computershare if you are unsure of whether you have completed your form.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.