Quarterly Operational Update
QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 31 December 2022
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01
WETTEST FIRST HALF EVER. Q2 HYDRO
GENERATION UP 38% ON PCP
ELECTRICITY SPOT PRICES COLLAPSE
DURING Q2, BUT FUTURES PRICES AT
OR ABOVE $190/MWh OUT TO CY26
35,000 NEW CONNECTIONS IN Q2.
NOW BROADBAND ACQUSITION LIFTS
TELCO CONNECTIONS BY 24,000
>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
WET WET
WET!
ELECTRICITY
FUTURES
PRICES HIGH
CONNECTION
GROWTH
ACROSS ALL
PRODUCTS
>> COMMENTARY
WETWET WET
Weather patterns across the Waikato catchment were very wet, almost the wettest second quarter since records began, extendingthe wet
trend from the start of the financial year which is now ranked as the wettest July to December period on record. This is a marked change
from the prior year where inflows trended around the lower quartile. Accordingly hydro generation was 1,281GWh for the threemonths ended
31 December 2022, up 352GWh (or 38%) on the prior comparable period, reflecting these very wet conditions. Hydro spill was significant at
386GWh for the quarter and 675GWh over the half year to maintain lakes within operating levels.
ELECTRICITY SPOT PRICES WEAK OVER QUARTER, BUT FORWARD PRICES HIGH
National inflows for the last quarter were also wet, around the upper tercile and very wet for the first half of the financial year. This reflected in
relatively low electricity spot prices over the quarter and half, averaging $47/MWh and $59/MWh in Auckland respectively. However, forward
electricity prices remain high with calendar years 2023 to 2026 around or above $190/MWh in Auckland reflecting high thermal generation
costs.
NATIONAL DEMAND GROWTH MODEST
National demand growth remains modest up only 0.5% on the prior comparable period but 1.2% lower than the same period 2 yearsago with
lower industrial demand driven mainly by reduced electricity consumption by Channel Infrastructure at Marsden Point.
GENERATION PRODUCTION LIFTS STRONGLY
As noted, hydro generation was strong due to very wet weather. Geothermal generation for the quarter of 606GWh was 61GWh lower than
on for the
last quarter was 9% higher than the prior comparable period due mostly to commissioning of Turitea North wind farm in 2021. Forthe
financial year, we are forecasting hydro generation of 4,700GWh with much of this additional generation being sold at lower spotprices over
the quarter.
CONNECTION GROWTH CONTINUES, MERCURY ACQUIRES OUTSTANDING SHARES IN NOW NZ LIMITED
ket
connections, volumes, and prices versus the prior comparable period. In December 2022, Mercury acquired the outstanding interestof 52% in
the NOW broadband business with 24,000 residential and commercial broadband connections. Mercury saw connection growth across all
product lines, lifting total connections by 11,000 over the quarter (excluding NOW acquisition). Commercial & Industrial yields(physical and
end-user CfDs) rose by $13/MWh to almost $107/MWh versus the prior comparable period, reflecting the rising electricity forward curve
repricing contract renewals.
579327
9847
146
15
18347
VolumeVolumeVolumeVolume
(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)
2,4551,9225,3213,998
1,5901,1173,5222,419
2
9625842,2871,373
3
6285331,2351,046
8252173114
4
1,6721,1693,6952,533
8658051,7991,579
301270605562
5645351,1941,017
28315961
5
4492251,227620
Gas purchases ($/GJ, TJ)
5
4532291,239632
TELCO SALES ($/month/connection)
6
Telco costs ($/month/connection
6
2,9842,2176,4004,464
2,2741,9504,8173,745
128192927351,883
7
60666712941,275
Wind Spot11692234105
Wind PPA271262554482
Financial7102671583719
Buy CfDs
8
7102671583719
Spot Settlement of CfDs
Net Position
9
176-19352-130
1
For electricity and gas, VWAP is the volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees
2
Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers
3
Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers
4
Excludes spot customer purchases
5
Includes LPG
6
Includes mobile connections, excludes NOW connections
7
8
9
Includes all physical and financial buys and sells except spot customer purchases and wind ppa
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02
Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 December 2022 and 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 31
December 2021 and of 302 GWh for the 6 months ended 31 December 2022 and 302 GWh for the 6 months ended 31 December 2021.
Also includes the Manawa CFD volumes relating to the Trustpower retail transaction since May 2022
114.63
53.7093.24
41.5757.45
62.6861.51
45.79104.52
60.84102.03
65.49120.84
Geothermal (consolidated)68.7241.64
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
43.8865.73
95.45117.47
95.45117.47
58.00107.91
58.73108.65
57.31
110.9794.38
104.6790.81
114.1696.35
13.238.70
81.14
119.27108.01
66.06114.53
127.09
153.83141.61
VWAPVWAP
($/MWh)($/MWh)
Six months ended
31 December 2022
Six months ended
31 December 2021
Spot Customer Purchases
83.5752.16 Hydro
37.4374.93
49.1273.67Physical
58.82
69.7347.26
12.479.26
81.48
73.48
71.54
99.22
95.25
90.48
Other Sell CfDs
91.87Financial
96.6992.57
Commercial & Industrial
Network Losses
End User CfDs
Physical Purchases
Spot Settlement of CfDs
OPERATING INFORMATION
Three months ended
31 December 2022
Three months ended
31 December 2021
Customers with two or more products
Telecommunication customers
Mobile connections
Gas connections
ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS
('000s ICPs)
Electricity connections
VWAP
1
VWAP
120.39135.60
($/MWh)($/MWh)
Physical
58.05
GAS SALES ($/GJ, TJ)20.9914.0519.9214.22
Mass Market
ELECTRICITY SALES
54.77
57.74
33.31
58.24
93.78
93.78
84.14
84.14
153.55
108.08
103.95
52.86
143.34
45.82
>> OPERATING STATISTICS
> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER
Source: Electricity Authority
> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER (EXCLUDING CFDs)
Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03
23%
36%
19%
12%
3%
7%
Financial Year Q2 2023
MERCURY
MERIDIAN ENERGY
CONTACT ENERGY
GENESIS ENERGY
MANAWA ENERGY
OTHER
>> MARKET DATA
19%
38%
21%
13%
3%
6%
Financial Year Q2 2022
18%
82%
Financial Year Q2 2023
MERCURY
OTHER
13%
87%
Financial Year Q2 2022
> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)
> TAUPO STORAGE
Source: NZX Hydro
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
$/MWh
GWh
AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2022 NATIONAL STORAGE
FY2023 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE
AVERAGE MONTHLY OTA PRICE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
GWh
AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2022FY2023
> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05
$143.93
$128.46
$113.30
$192.99
$182.64
$164.13
$155.02
$203.41
$181.55
$134.49
$196.21
$189.00
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
FY23FY24FY25
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2021AS AT 30 JUNE 2022AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2022AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2022
$121.24
$105.13
$88.23
$170.06
$157.75
$137.19
$134.88
$176.05
$150.58
$111.18
$160.46
$152.14
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
FY23FY24FY25
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2021AS AT 30 JUNE 2022AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2022AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2022
> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange
> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)
FINANCIAL YEAR
Q1Q2Q3Q4
202312.917.2--
202212.217.820.815.1
202112.316.919.514.8
202012.316.719.514.4
201912.116.320.214.1
Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.219.514.2
Source: Met Service
> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)
Source: Electricity Authority
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06
8,541
8,270
8,481
8,506
8,327
8,364
1,263
1,316
1,310
1,248
1,262
1,273
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q2 2018Q2 2019Q2 2020Q2 2021Q2 2022Q2 2023
GWh
NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
% Churn
Monthly ICPs
NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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- MEL — Meridian Energy Limited: Meridian Energy monthly operating report for January 20232023-02-16
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