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MLN – February 2023 monthly update

Operational Update12 February 2023MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for January was 12.8%, while

the adjusted NAV return was up 12.0%. This compared with our

global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index

(50% hedged to NZD), which was up 6.9%.

Global equities were up +7.1%. US and European equities

both had a positive start to the year, up +6.3% and +6.8%,

respectively. Global emerging market equities also had a strong

January (+7.9%).

The big drivers of the game have changed. Remember, 2022

was defined by three big headwinds - global inflation, Chinese

growth risk, and soaring European gas and energy prices which

bled into soaring European and UK power prices. Global inflation

peaked at 10.5% last year and is now at 9%. US inflation is

rapidly coming off its highs, it peaked at 9% and is now at

6%. The Chinese government did a U-turn which started in

November last year – where they rapidly unlocked the population

and started re-stimulating growth. The China stock market has

reacted and is up almost 50% from its lows in October last year.

European gas prices faced the perfect storm last year with the

threat of Russian supplies being cut off and a lack of alternatives.

Since then, gas prices have fallen 80% from their peaks.

Portfolio

Floor & Decor (+30%) had a strong start to the year driven

by improved sentiment on US housing and the related flooring

market. Investors are beginning to look through the current

housing slump and expect housing markets to improve from

here. For example, home builder KB Homes reported its fourth

quarter 2022 earnings in January, announcing it missed new

home order expectations by more than 60%, and new home

orders were down 80% in the quarter versus the prior year.

Regardless, KB’s stock was up 21% for the month, a sign of how

negative sentiment had become on companies involved in the

US housing complex.

Cost discipline continues apace in the tech sector. The market

responded positively to approximately 50,000 total layoffs

announced in the month across Salesforce (+27%), Amazon

(+23%), Paypal (+14%), Alphabet (+12%) and Microsoft

(+3%). This amounts to a 5~10% workforce reduction for each

company. Meta (+24%) previously announced a 13% workforce

reduction in November 2022. These actions put these tech

companies in better shape to weather a possible macro-driven

downturn in revenue this year.

Activist investor Elliott Management (Elliott) took a stake in

Salesforce (+27%) during January. Elliott owns a stake in

another one of our portfolio companies – Paypal – where the

activist is driving Paypal to simplify its business strategy to

focus on core operations, rationalise costs, and return capital to

shareholders. We expect Elliott to employ a similar playbook for

Salesforce, and it is encouraging that they have taken a stake –

activist investors are frequently drawn to companies with good

business models and strong financial positions that have lost

their way a little bit.

Alibaba (+25%) and Tencent (+20%) benefited from the end

to China’s zero-Covid policy which is driving expectations for a

strong economic recovery in 2023, with the MSCI China Index

up +12% in the month. As with Europe and the US, China

consumers have excess savings and pent-up demand from the

numerous lockdowns in the past few years, and Alibaba and

Tencent’s businesses are well-positioned to benefit.

Netflix (+20%) reported significantly higher than expected net

subscriber additions and free cash flow at its fourth quarter 2022

update. Netflix ended 2022 with 230 million paid subscribers.

Netflix continues to roll out its new ad-supported tier and paid

account sharing options in 2023, which will contribute to robust

free cash flow growth in the long term by monetising non-paying

Netflix users (estimated at 100 million households globally and

30 million in North America alone), attracting new users, and

retaining existing users (reducing churn).

Portfolio Changes

There were no substantive changes to the portfolio in the month.

1

Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

February 2023

$

0.92

Share Price

MLN NAVPREMIUM

1

$

0.89 4.1

%


as at 31 January 2023

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

Warrant Price

$

0.03

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 31 January 2023

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.13

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

204m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$187m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 January 2023

30

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

7

%

HEALTH CARE

22

%


FINANCIALS

24

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

GEOGRAPHICAL

SPLIT

as at 31 January 2023

8

%

WEST

EUROPE

78

%

NORTH

AMERICA

3

%


CASH &

DERIVATIVES

14

%

9

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES


ASIA

3

%

CASH &

DERIVATIVES

2

%


SOUTH AMERICA

3
JANUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

during the month

FLOOR & DECOR

+30

%

SALESFORCE

+27

%

ALIBABA

+25

%

AMAZON

+24

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 January 2023

AMAZON

8

%

META PLATFORMS

7

%

ALPHABET

7

%

FLOOR & DECOR

6

%

PAYPAL

6

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 January 2023

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+2.5%(5.4%)(26.0%)+3.9%+12.2%

Adjusted NAV Return+12.0%+7.0%(20.2%)+4.2%+7.6%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +12.8%+9.2%(18.6%)+7.2%+10.5%

Benchmark Index^+6.9%+5.9%(4.6%)+6.7%+6.4%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

META PLATFORMS

+23

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 January 2023

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.00

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

4.00

$

5.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2020

Nov

2021

Nov

2022

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-

issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants

(MLNWF) on 18 October 2022.

»Information pertaining to the warrants was

mailed/emailed to all shareholders on 25 October

2022.

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every

four Marlin shares held based on the record date

of 2 November 2022.

»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on

3 November 2022 and listed on the NZX Main

Board from 4 November 2022.

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.99,

adjusted down for the aggregate amount per

Share of any cash dividends declared on the

shares with a record date during the period

commencing on the date of allotment of the

warrants and ending on the last Business Day

before the final Exercise Price is announced by

Marlin.

»The Exercise Date for the new warrants is

10 November 2023.


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated to

it from the Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement and other

written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is

managed by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio

Manager), Chris Waters (Senior

Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang

and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)

have prime responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together they

have significant combined experience

and are very capable of researching

and investing in the quality global

companies that Marlin targets. Fisher

Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.