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MLN – March 2023 monthly update

Operational Update9 March 2023MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for February was down

2.2%, while the adjusted NAV return was down 1.8%. This

compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid

Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was

down 0.6%.

In February, global and US equities gave back some of the

January gains and were down -2.2% and -2.4%, respectively.

European equities were up +1.9%, whilst emerging market

equities were down -6.5%.

The story for the month was simple and all too familiar.

Inflationary drivers, such as a tight US labour market, are

proving sticky. Hence, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s)

language and actions remain hawkish. The market was

pricing a peak Fed funds interest rate of 4.9% as at the

end of January and by the end of February, the market was

pricing 5.4%. US 10-year bond yields, as a proxy for global

interest rates, rose +50bps for the month and are now higher

than the end of December 2022.

Portfolio

Alphabet (-9%), also known as Google, reported stable

earnings in February. However, its shares traded down due

to concerns that Microsoft Bing (in partnership with artificial

intelligence (AI) chatbot ChatGPT) will take market share

away from Google Search and thereby reduce Google’s

profitability. While it’s early days in the new tussle for market

share, StatCounter, a web traffic analysis website, found

that Google’s share of search actually increased by 50bps

(to 93.4%) in February, while Bing’s share decreased by

20bps (to 2.8%). Several news articles pointing out a

wrong answer by Bard (Google’s version of ChatGPT) also

weighed on sentiment. However, there has been plenty of

news on incorrect answers and ‘rogue’ conversations from

the ChatGPT-powered Bing chatbot (codenamed Sydney).

Google has been using AI in its products such as Google

Search and Google Maps for many years. And the company

is one of the few with the resources to spend on AI research

and development. This gives us confidence in the company’s

longer-term value proposition of providing users with faster

and more relevant search responses.

Amazon (-9%) gave back some of the strong gains it made

in January. The earnings result was mixed. On the positive

side, the number and value of third-party sellers on the

e-commerce platform was strong, +13% vs expectations.

This is important because third party sellers come with higher

margins and drive volume through Amazon’s vast logistics

network. And they also drive advertising dollars. Probably

as a result, advertising growth was better than expected

at +23.0% (constant currency) vs 21.5% expected. This

was overshadowed by weaker than expected Amazon Web

Services (AWS) revenue growth of 20.0% (constant currency)

vs 23.5% expected. As a result of the revenue miss in AWS

and inline expenses, the AWS operating profit margin was

weaker than expected. AWS revenue growth further slowed

in January to mid-teens growth. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy

expects the slowdown in AWS revenue lasting for at least

another quarter or two.

Floor and Décor (+1%) reported earnings in February.

The company reported weaker than expected revenues

but stronger than anticipated earnings.The gross profit

margin was better than expected as supply chain costs

and congestion eased. Guidance for 2023 came in slightly

weaker than expected. However, given the muted home sales

environment in the US due to rising interest rates, it wasn’t

that surprising. Floor and Décor continue to take market

share and grow store count quickly which will continue in

2023. Store count is expected to grow by another 32 to 35,

on top of the current 191 store base.

Meta (+17%) reported earnings in February. Management

reduced 2023 expenditure guidance and announced an extra

US$40bn of share repurchases, which is equivalent to circa

9% of Meta’s market capitalisation. It was good to see the

clear focus on cost discipline. And the increased buybacks

show confidence in the long-term value offered by the shares

currently. Meta has 3.7bn monthly active users across its four

apps (Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, and WhatsApp), up

+4% compared to the prior year.

1

Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

March 2023

$

0.94

Share Price

MLN NAVPREMIUM

1

$

0.87 8.0

%


as at 28 February 2023

Warrant Price

$

0.02

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 28 February 2023

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.13

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

204m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$191m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

PayPal (-10%) reported results in February. New account

adds and revenues were weaker than expected given

continued post-pandemic e-commerce normalisation and

increasing competition. PayPal increased capital returns

to shareholders through share buybacks. 2023 is off to a

stronger start than expected indicating PayPal is gaining

market share, particularly when merchants are implementing

PayPal’s latest payment checkout technology. We reduced

our target weighting in PayPal in recent months as the

industry has become more competitive.

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 28 February 2023

30

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

7

%

HEALTH CARE

22

%


FINANCIALS

24

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT

as at 28 February 2023

7

%

WEST

EUROPE

79

%

NORTH

AMERICA

2

%


CASH &

DERIVATIVES

15

%

10

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES


ASIA

2

%

CASH &

DERIVATIVES

2

%


SOUTH AMERICA

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

Portfolio Changes

There were no substantive changes to the portfolio in the

month.

3
FEBRUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

during the month

META PLATFORMS

+17

%

FIRST REPUBLIC BANK

SAN FRANCISCO

-13

%

ALIBABA GROUP

-20

%

STONECO

-22

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 28 February 2023

META PLATFORMS

8

%

AMAZON

8

%

ALPHABET

7

%

FLOOR & DECOR

7

%

ICON

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 28 February 2023

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+1.9%+2.5%(22.2%)+7.8%+12.3%

Adjusted NAV Return(1.8%)+3.1%(13.4%)+4.6%+7.5%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (2.2%)+3.6%(12.3%)+7.7%+10.2%

Benchmark Index^(0.6%)+1.6%(2.4%)+8.8%+6.8%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

MEITUAN

-24

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 28 February 2023

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.00

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

4.00

$

5.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2020

Nov

2021

Nov

2022

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-

issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants

(MLNWF) on 18 October 2022

»Information pertaining to the warrants was

mailed/emailed to all shareholders on 25 October

2022

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every

four Marlin shares held based on the record date

of 2 November 2022

»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on

3 November 2022 and listed on the NZX Main

Board from 4 November 2022

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.99,

adjusted down for the aggregate amount per

Share of any cash dividends declared on the

shares with a record date during the period

commencing on the date of allotment of the

warrants and ending on the last Business Day

before the final Exercise Price is announced by

Marlin

»The Exercise Date for the new warrants is 10

November 2023


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated to

it from the Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement and other

written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is

managed by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio

Manager), Chris Waters (Senior

Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang

and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)

have prime responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together they

have significant combined experience

and are very capable of researching

and investing in the quality global

companies that Marlin targets. Fisher

Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.