MLN – March 2023 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for February was down
2.2%, while the adjusted NAV return was down 1.8%. This
compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid
Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was
down 0.6%.
In February, global and US equities gave back some of the
January gains and were down -2.2% and -2.4%, respectively.
European equities were up +1.9%, whilst emerging market
equities were down -6.5%.
The story for the month was simple and all too familiar.
Inflationary drivers, such as a tight US labour market, are
proving sticky. Hence, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s)
language and actions remain hawkish. The market was
pricing a peak Fed funds interest rate of 4.9% as at the
end of January and by the end of February, the market was
pricing 5.4%. US 10-year bond yields, as a proxy for global
interest rates, rose +50bps for the month and are now higher
than the end of December 2022.
Portfolio
Alphabet (-9%), also known as Google, reported stable
earnings in February. However, its shares traded down due
to concerns that Microsoft Bing (in partnership with artificial
intelligence (AI) chatbot ChatGPT) will take market share
away from Google Search and thereby reduce Google’s
profitability. While it’s early days in the new tussle for market
share, StatCounter, a web traffic analysis website, found
that Google’s share of search actually increased by 50bps
(to 93.4%) in February, while Bing’s share decreased by
20bps (to 2.8%). Several news articles pointing out a
wrong answer by Bard (Google’s version of ChatGPT) also
weighed on sentiment. However, there has been plenty of
news on incorrect answers and ‘rogue’ conversations from
the ChatGPT-powered Bing chatbot (codenamed Sydney).
Google has been using AI in its products such as Google
Search and Google Maps for many years. And the company
is one of the few with the resources to spend on AI research
and development. This gives us confidence in the company’s
longer-term value proposition of providing users with faster
and more relevant search responses.
Amazon (-9%) gave back some of the strong gains it made
in January. The earnings result was mixed. On the positive
side, the number and value of third-party sellers on the
e-commerce platform was strong, +13% vs expectations.
This is important because third party sellers come with higher
margins and drive volume through Amazon’s vast logistics
network. And they also drive advertising dollars. Probably
as a result, advertising growth was better than expected
at +23.0% (constant currency) vs 21.5% expected. This
was overshadowed by weaker than expected Amazon Web
Services (AWS) revenue growth of 20.0% (constant currency)
vs 23.5% expected. As a result of the revenue miss in AWS
and inline expenses, the AWS operating profit margin was
weaker than expected. AWS revenue growth further slowed
in January to mid-teens growth. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy
expects the slowdown in AWS revenue lasting for at least
another quarter or two.
Floor and Décor (+1%) reported earnings in February.
The company reported weaker than expected revenues
but stronger than anticipated earnings.The gross profit
margin was better than expected as supply chain costs
and congestion eased. Guidance for 2023 came in slightly
weaker than expected. However, given the muted home sales
environment in the US due to rising interest rates, it wasn’t
that surprising. Floor and Décor continue to take market
share and grow store count quickly which will continue in
2023. Store count is expected to grow by another 32 to 35,
on top of the current 191 store base.
Meta (+17%) reported earnings in February. Management
reduced 2023 expenditure guidance and announced an extra
US$40bn of share repurchases, which is equivalent to circa
9% of Meta’s market capitalisation. It was good to see the
clear focus on cost discipline. And the increased buybacks
show confidence in the long-term value offered by the shares
currently. Meta has 3.7bn monthly active users across its four
apps (Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, and WhatsApp), up
+4% compared to the prior year.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
March 2023
$
0.94
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
0.87 8.0
%
as at 28 February 2023
Warrant Price
$
0.02
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 28 February 2023
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.13
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
204m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$191m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
PayPal (-10%) reported results in February. New account
adds and revenues were weaker than expected given
continued post-pandemic e-commerce normalisation and
increasing competition. PayPal increased capital returns
to shareholders through share buybacks. 2023 is off to a
stronger start than expected indicating PayPal is gaining
market share, particularly when merchants are implementing
PayPal’s latest payment checkout technology. We reduced
our target weighting in PayPal in recent months as the
industry has become more competitive.
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 28 February 2023
30
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
7
%
HEALTH CARE
22
%
FINANCIALS
24
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 28 February 2023
7
%
WEST
EUROPE
79
%
NORTH
AMERICA
2
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
15
%
10
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
ASIA
2
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
2
%
SOUTH AMERICA
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
Portfolio Changes
There were no substantive changes to the portfolio in the
month.
3
FEBRUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
META PLATFORMS
+17
%
FIRST REPUBLIC BANK
SAN FRANCISCO
-13
%
ALIBABA GROUP
-20
%
STONECO
-22
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 28 February 2023
META PLATFORMS
8
%
AMAZON
8
%
ALPHABET
7
%
FLOOR & DECOR
7
%
ICON
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 28 February 2023
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+1.9%+2.5%(22.2%)+7.8%+12.3%
Adjusted NAV Return(1.8%)+3.1%(13.4%)+4.6%+7.5%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (2.2%)+3.6%(12.3%)+7.7%+10.2%
Benchmark Index^(0.6%)+1.6%(2.4%)+8.8%+6.8%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
MEITUAN
-24
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 28 February 2023
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.00
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
4.00
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
Nov
2021
Nov
2022
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants
(MLNWF) on 18 October 2022
»Information pertaining to the warrants was
mailed/emailed to all shareholders on 25 October
2022
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every
four Marlin shares held based on the record date
of 2 November 2022
»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on
3 November 2022 and listed on the NZX Main
Board from 4 November 2022
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.99,
adjusted down for the aggregate amount per
Share of any cash dividends declared on the
shares with a record date during the period
commencing on the date of allotment of the
warrants and ending on the last Business Day
before the final Exercise Price is announced by
Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the new warrants is 10
November 2023
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated to
it from the Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement and other
written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is
managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio
Manager), Chris Waters (Senior
Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang
and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)
have prime responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together they
have significant combined experience
and are very capable of researching
and investing in the quality global
companies that Marlin targets. Fisher
Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.