Investor Update
11
Investor presentation
27 March 2023
Contact Energy Limited
Investor update for proposed bond offer
2
Disclaimer and important information
While all reasonable care has been taken in compiling this presentation, neither Contact
nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any other person gives any
representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this information or accepts any
liability for any errors or omissions.
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to a
variety of matters. All such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks,
significant uncertainties, assumptions, contingencies, and other factors, many of which
are outside the control of Contact, which may cause the actual results or performance of
Contact to be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or
implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements speak only
as of the date of this presentation. Except as required by law or regulation (including the
NZX Listing Rules and the ASX Listing Rules), Contact undertakes no obligation to
update these forward-looking statements for events or circumstances that occur
subsequent to the date of this presentation or to update or keep current any of the
information contained herein. Any estimates or projections as to events that may occur in
the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net income and performance) are
based upon the best judgement of Contact from the information available as of the date
of this presentation.
EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash flow are financial measures that are
“non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting practice) financial information” under
Guidance Note 2017: ‘Disclosing non-GAAP financial information’ published by the New
Zealand Financial Markets Authority, “non-IFRS financial information” under ASIC
Regulatory Guide 230: ‘Disclosing non-IFRS financial information’ and “non-GAAP
financial measures” within the meaning of Regulation G under the U.S. Exchange Act of
1934.
Such financial information and financial measures (including EBITDAF, free cash flow
and operating free cash flow) do not have standardised meanings prescribed under New
Zealand equivalents to International Financial Reporting Standards (“NZ IFRS”),
Australian Accounting Standards (“AAS”) or International Financial Reporting Standards
(“IFRS”) and therefore, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by
other entities, and should not be construed as an alternative to other financial measures
determined in accordance with NZ IFRS, AAS or IFRS accounting practice) measures.
Information regarding the usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of these measures is
provided in the supporting material.
This presentation does not constitute financial or investment advice. This presentation
does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, Contact securities
and may not be relied on in connection with any purchase of a Contact security.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been rounded and might not appear to add.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollar unless stated otherwise.
Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyof their respective
owners. All company, product and service names used in this presentation are for
identification purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands does not imply
endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and reflectspublic
announcements of intention only.
33
Matthew Forbes
Head of Corporate Finance
Contact
Presenters
Will Thomson
Corporate Treasurer
44
Agenda
Electricity Market Overview
Contact Energy Strategy
Financial Performance Update
Capital Structure & Funding
5- 8
9- 15
16
17-20
55
Presented by
Matthew Forbes
Head of Corporate Finance
Electricity Market Overview
Contact Energy Strategy
Financial Performance Update
Introduction to Contact
66
Sources: New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2020 snapshot, 2022 Inventory, TeRārangi
HaurehuKati Mahanaa Aotearoa 1990-2020 - He whakarāpopotoNew Zealand
Meaningful reductions in carbon emissions are possible with
renewable electricity displacing carbon intensive fuels
With New Zealand's high renewable penetration, electricity is the solution to reducing carbon emissions, not
the problem
Paris agreement target, Mt CO2e
(Transpower, 2020)
52
16
17
21
Net zero
2050
Gross
emissions
ex biogenic
methane
2
Net
growth
Other
abatement
required
Electri-
fication
Forestry
carbon
capture
0
Electrification will reduce carbon emissions
Our future energy profile
(Climate Change Commission, 2021)
29
35**
Renewable
electricity as % of
total energy use
2
Source: Climate Change Commission2021 final advice
2
Based on Consumer Energy use rather than Primary Energy use
Greenhouse gas emissions by sector
(Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2020)
2022
2035
Total
electricity
(TWh)
41
51
To meet this annual emissions reduction,
Transpowerestimates 70% more renewable
generation is required to electrify heat and
decarbonisetransportation. This amounts to
~23TWh p.a.
This is the equivalent investment of around
$690m every year for 27.5 years
1
2050
Source: Whakamanai TeMauri Hiko- Empowering our Energy Future,
March 2020 (Transpower)
1
Based on the cost of the Meridian Harapakiwind farm as per August
2022 NZX announcement ($448m, 542GWh p.a.)
**Transpowerand Climate Change Commission
analysis preceded the Government’s first
Emissions Reduction Plan, which targets an even
more ambitious trajectory with renewables at
50% of total energy consumption by 2035
58-75
>50
7
The New Zealand regulatory framework is being adapted to deliver on this societal imperative. There is political consensus to
deliver net zero by 2050 and on the emissions reductions budgets needed to get there
Society is demanding action on climate change, with clear progress expected.
¹ While the Government’s first Emissions Reduction Plan has now been released, there is ongoing work on implementation and furtherplanning. Work on the next Emissions Reduction Plan will also start in 2023.
2
Covering electricity, hydrogen, and industry decarbonisation. Terms of Reference have been released.
3
Including BCG’s “The Future is Electric”; EA/Transpower’s“Future Security and Resilience Project”; EA’s Market Development Advisory Group; Wholesale Market Review (EA currently consulting on proposals).
Government
Energy
Strategy
2
Current
Tiwai
contract
ends 2024
Gas
Transition
Plan
Transport
policies
Net zero
New
Zealand
carbon
emissions
by 2050
Government
Procurement
Market
reviews to
support
highly
renewable
market
3
Significant
increase in
GIDI
subsidies
Resource
consenting
reform
Transmission
pricing and
grid
upgrades
Emissions
Reduction
Plan
1
Potential electricity demand impactPotential renewable generation impactPotential wider electricity sector impact
In progress
Announced
New
Zealand
Battery
Project
feasibility
Climate change and regulation
8
Topical regulatory matters
Medium term spot and hedge market prices continue to
be higher than long term averages due to coal prices,
gas availability and the cost of carbon. This is increasing
pressure on unhedged energy intensive industries.
The industry, Transpowerand the EA are paying close
attention to capacity in winter 2023. The industry CEO
forum is working closely with the EA to minimisethe risk
of any shortage in 2023.
Wholesale
market
security
Contactis exploring further renewable generation opportunities across geothermal, wind and
solar to reduce future impacts from thermal fuel volatility.
Contactis working with customers to smooth out pricing volatility through long-term contracts.
Contactis leading the development of the demand response market for C&I customers, and
has introduced time-of-use offerings for retail customers, helping to reduce load during peak
periods.
Contactis continuing to engage with the EA on the longer-term impacts of market volatility.
The sector is now entering a period of intense investment to both decarboniseexisting
generation and build new generation to meet future demand.
Key themes
What Contact is doing
NZ Battery
Project
The Government is assessing options to address
New Zealand’s dry year risk with 100% renewable
generation. This includes assessing its initially
preferred solution of pumped hydro at Lake
Onslow.
In October 2022, Boston Consulting Group
released a report “The Future Is Electric” which
showed that a range of industry-led solutions were
available to address the dry-year risk without the
need for the proposed Lake Onslow project.
Contactsupports further analysis to address dry year risk. Multiple options exist that will require
careful evaluation, including interruptible green hydrogen, interruptible load for other major
customers and grid-scale batteries.
Contactcontinues to assess low cost, low capital options to support decarbonisationthrough
market-led thermal solutions.
9
Our strategy to lead New Zealand’s
decarbonisation
Enablers
Transformative ways of working
Createa flexible and high-performing
environment for New Zealand’s top talent
Outcomes
Growth
Pivot our business to a new growth era that
captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation
Resilience
Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,
aligned with our ESG commitment
Performance
Realise a step-change in performance, materially
growing EBITDAF through strategic investments
Strategic
theme
Objective
Grow
demand
Attract new industrial demand with
globally competitive renewables
Grow renewable
development
Build renewable generation and
flexibility on the back of new demand
Decarbonise
our portfolio
Lead an orderly transition
to renewables
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Create New Zealand's leading energy and services
brand to meet more of our customers’ needs
Operational excellence
Continuouslyimproving our operations
through innovation and digitisation
ESG
Createlong-term value through our strong
performance across a broad set of environmental,
social and governance factors
10
Contact believes it is well positioned to
enableNew Zealand’s decarbonisation
1/ Distinctive capabilities
Deep understanding of energy applications
Unique in
-house geothermal capability
Wind capability
Solar
joint venture
3/ Leading New Zealand's thermal
generation transition
We have led the economic substitution of almost
3TWh of thermal generation over the last 15 years
(twice as much as all of our peers combined), while
developing advanced trading capabilities and systems
to manage changes to our commodity risk position
2/ New Zealand’s best renewable development pipeline
Geothermal +2.9TWh
p.a
Under development
+1.8TWh p.a
Medium-term target–
+1.1TWh p.a(net)
Wind
Land access
agreements
signed
Solar target
200MW
Initial target
Low-cost, innovative operations
We have a track record of sustainably reducing
costs across the business, with low cost
geothermal and retail cost-to-serve when
benchmarked
Largest New Zealand electricity brand*
Contact is New Zealand’s largest electricity brand,
catering to changing customer needs with a great
customer experience
Future-focused capabilities
Our capabilities will support our growth with
major projects, business development and digital
and analytics skills recently added
100% Subsidiaries
16.5% investment
Partnership
Joint Venture
14.0% investment
* Source: EMIICP numbers by trader 31/01/23
1111
2018 - 2022generationbystationandtype(five-year average)
1
3,820GWh
1,446GWh
Whereweare
Roxburgh(320MW)
Clyde(432MW)
2,108
1,712
Hydro
TeRapa(spot) and
Whirinaki(199MW)
Stratford– Peakers
(210MW)
Stratford– CCGT
(377MW)
Contact has a diversified portfolio
of generation assets
GeothermalThermal
8.5TWh
Average
generated
207
288
951
TeHuka(28MW)185
Ohaaki(44MW)310
Poihipi(55MW)361
Wairākei(132MW)
1,047
TeMihi(166MW)1,359
3,262GWh
1,870*
Under construction
* Source: Forsyth Barr analyst report 8/02/2023
1
Excludes Te Rapa direct sales
Geothermal
12
Improving demand outlook for electricity
Decarbonisationambitions and thermal economics will support growth
Demand
response
Focus area
What we’ve
learned
Examples of
our progress
Large scale
data centres
Major
industrial
energy users
Green
chemicals
Industrial
process heat
Road
transport
•Attractive baseload
characteristics
•Low emission customers
•Pipeline of hyperscale
data centres announced
e.g. CDC, DCI,
Microsoft, Amazon
Demand response is introduced wherever possible when entering into new supply contracts –this is high value to Contact, industrial customers and NZ
Will contribute to decarbonisation of New Zealand whilst improving the security of supply at peak periods
High degree of customer appetite for demand response mechanisms to be packaged into new contracts
•Data centres under
construction or highly
likely totalling 200MW
•>100MW capacity due to
be added by 2024
•Some barriers remain e.g.
high transmission costs
•Higher carbon pricing
needed to drive increased
rate of boiler conversions
•$69m in confirmed GIDI
funding allocated since
2020
•Supported around 50MW
of new-to-market lower
South Island electricity
demand
•Carbon capture trials
complete at TeHuka. Have
option to reinject or harvest
•Working with BOC, a Linde
company, to assess highest
value commercial options
for C0
2
captured at
geothermal facilities
•Increasing commitment
to decarbonisation
targets by major
energy users
•Significant appetite for
flexible, renewables-
backed electricity
contracts
•Technology advancement
enabling options for
heavy transport
•Increasing uptake of EVs
– 21% of all registrations
in December 2022
1
•Expansion of charging
infrastructure required
1
“EVs” includes the number of electric vehicle registrations for December 2022 as reported by the Motor Industry Association. This is inclusive of 100% electric (2,295), plug-in petrol hybrid (389) and petrol hybrid vehicles (1,286).
•Hydrogen export
economics challenging vs
alternatives
•Domestic opportunity for
green chemicals in a
range of hard to abate
sectors
•Working with the HW
Richardson Group to
assess a trial use of
hydrogen for heavy
transport
•Extended time of use retail
offering to EV plan,
introducing Dream Charge
•Long term Tauhara
backed PPAs: Genesis,
Oji Fibre and Pan Pac
•NZAS negotiations
underway
•Working with NZ Steel on
options around
interruptibility
13
13
Decarbonising our portfolio: Leading an
orderly transition to renewables
Key outcomes:
•Act on our commitment to ESG, contributing to better outcomes for our communities and the
environment
•Support secure 24/7 electricity supply for Contact’s customers and all other market
participants
•Capture the value flexibility offers to the electricity market
•Provide an integrated system to support the transition to renewables by providing risk-
coverage to the market and reducing price volatility
•Reduce fixed costs by finding cost reductions, synergies and highest-value ownership
Other external commitments
Our targets have been approved by the Science-Based Targets
initiative (1.5 degree warming)
Reduce Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions 45% compared to 2018
baseline by 2026
30% reduction of 2018 Scope 3 GHG emissions by 2026
2021
2022
2023
2012 emissions
450
FY21
1,046
Closure of
Te Rapa
200
Closure of TCC
106
Geothermal
additions
37
2025 emissionsReduced
Thermal
Peaker
generation
465
648
SBTI target
2026
Thermal review announced
ThermalCodiscussion paper released
Closure of TeRapa announced
Risk management product sold to Meridian
Geothermal carbon reinjection trial on track
TCC closure once operating hours end (est2024)
Complete review of thermal assets
Scope 1 & 2 GHG emissions (ktCO
2
e)
2,698
1
1
Contact’s annual emissions return to the Environmental Protection Authority for calendar year 2012. Reflects scope 1 emissions ex diesel
14
Market leading renewable development pipeline
Contact has built a renewable electricity development pipeline of 6TWh, with capability to
deliver
Consented post-FID (under construction)
Consented pre-FID (development option)
2.1
1.1
1.9
3.0
Consenting in progress
Land access secured / exclusivity
1.7
1.3
20202023
3.0
6TWH
Potential options
for future uplift
TWh
Planned and
consented
TWh
202320242026
>2027
WindSolar
Tauhara
(1.4TWh)
TeHuka
(0.4TWh)
GeoFuture
(1.4TWh)
Roxburgh
(45GWh
2
uplift)
Solar and wind development pipeline advancing, with projects entering consenting stage:
•Contact/Lightsourcebp JV selected by Christchurch Airport to deliver 170MWp
3
(150MW) solar farm
at KōwhaiPark. Subject to a final investment decision, construction targeted to begin in 2024.
•Consenting underway for priority North Island solar farm site (170MWp/150MW) and South Island
wind site (220MW).
•Land access secured for a further development potential of 60MWp (50MW) solar and 450MW wind.
Planned and consented renewable energy development projects
1
Expected generation (indicative):
2025
Potential options for future uplift
Expected generation (indicative):
Tauhara
stage 2
(0.7TWh)
Remaining
capacity
Wairākei
closure
(1.0TWh)
1
All uncommitted investment / closures are subject to Board investment decisions. The Tauhara, TeHukaand Roxburgh investments have been committed to.
2
45GWh p.a. uplift is based on mean hydrology conditions.
3
MWp refers to the Direct Current (DC) MW output from a Solar farm which is then converted to Alternating Current (AC) MW output (MW).
15
Indicative MW (net export to grid)
Estimated plant capacity
factor/ annual generation
Net generation uplift from field resource
after closure of WairākeiA and B
Wairākeigeothermal consents granted
Wairākeire-consent highlights
~168
MW
95% / ~1.4TWh p.a.
End of
2023 /
2H 2026
1
~0.4TWh
p.a.
Consent received to operate for the next 35 years on the Wairākeifield, enabling Contact to proceed with its
plans for the replacement of WairākeiA and B legacy geothermal power stations at Te Mihi (GeoFuture)
Targeted final investment decision /
Indicative timing for on-line date
GeoFutureplanned development key features
(capacity / output shown as previously indicated)
Consentto continue operations for next 35
years on Wairākeigeothermal steamfield.
Consent for large new plant at TeMihi – up
to 180 MW additional to the existing TeMihi
units 1 and 2– providing investment
optionality / flexibility.
Will result in significant local investment for
Waikato during construction.
Immediate benefits from higher geothermal
mass take – 2% higher than current.
Reinvigorated partnership with local iwi and
hapu.
All Contact’s operational steamfield
discharges into Waikato River cease from
30 June 2026.
Balance sheet prepared, enabling
investment option to proceed fully funded
1
References are to calendar years.
1616
Operating earnings (EBITDAF) ($m)
Financial performance update
Operating free cash flow ($m)
Average operating cash flow for the preceding four financial years
Dividend policy range: 80-100% of average operating free cash
flow for the preceding four years
FY18
258
322
324
259
FY19
266
325
260
FY20
309
247
FY22
88%
FY21
83%
326
261
84%
332
FY23
301
341
290
371
Annual operating
free cash flow
100%
80%
Dividend level
as a % of preceeding
4yr operating fcf
325
481
518
446
553
537
530
550
FY19
480480480
FY18
480
FY20FY21
520
FY22FY23
High quality, long-life generation assets support strong operating cash flow
EBITDAF FY23 NormalisedUpdate
EBITDAF
Normalised and expected
mean year EBITDAF at the start of the FY
1717
Capital Structure & Funding
Presented by
Will Thomson
Corporate Treasurer
Capital Structure & Funding
18
•Balanced debt portfolio with diverse sources of
funding; comprising bank debt, domestic bonds
and USPP
•Debt level has risen over the last financial year
as development of the Tauhara and Te Huka
geothermal power stations continues
•Entire debt portfoliois certified green by the
Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI)
•A new $850m sustainability linked loan was
executed in December 2022. This replaced all
existing loans and brought all bank funding into
full alignment with Contact26 strategy
•S&P’s key financial metric for BBB is a Net
Debt/EBITDAF ratio which must be kept below
3x over the medium-term
•Gearing increased to 30% at 31 December
2022, up from 23.5% at 30 June 2022
A green and sustainably-linked debt portfolio aligned to our Contact26 strategy
Closing net debt ($m)
Face value of borrowings less cash
Interest rate (%)
Weighted average gross interest
1
on average borrowings
Net debt to EBITDAF (x)
Includes S&P adjustments (prior to FY20, AGS was treated as a lease)
Borrowing maturities ($m)
3
Average tenor of 6.4 years as at 31 December 2022
Funding
1.Gross interest includes all interest on borrowings, bank commitment fees and deferred financing costs. Unwind of leases, provisions and capitalised interest not included
2.Based on a normalised and expected EBITDAF of $550m
3.Maturity profile shows all committed debt as opposed to all drawn debt
1,410
990
1,036
774
1,025
1,354
-150
-168
-163
645
FY18
22
-3
38
25
-44-47
FY21FY19FY22FY20
21
25
26
1H23
1,445
968
1,014
882
1,217
Cash on handBorrowingsLease obligations
66
225
153
100
136
350
75
14
50
250
61
300
235
182
7
FY24
7
FY26FY29FY27FY25
77
22
4
FY28FY52
493
357
276
NEXI: Export credit agency
USPPUndrawn bank facilities
Drawn bank facilities
Domestic bondsCapital bonds
3.1
2.3
2.4
1.2
1.5
2.2
FY22FY18FY20FY19FY21HY23
1,476
1,207
1,031
963
902
1,221
FY20FY21
5.2%
5.1%
FY18FY22
5.4%
5.2%
FY19
5.3%
5.4%
1H23
Average gross interestAverage gross debt
2
1919
Sustainable Finance
•Contact established our Green Borrowing Programme in 2017 – the first such certification completed by a New Zealand issuer and the first green
certification of an entire debt programme globally. This demonstrates Contact’s commitment to investing in renewable energy assets (i.e. geothermal power)
which have achieved independent certification by the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI).
•The Green Borrowing Programme is described within Contact’s Sustainable Finance Framework(Framework), which aligns with the International Capital
Markets Association Green Bond Principles, and the Asia Pacific Loan Market Association Green Loan Principles. The Framework,which also incorporates
the issuance of sustainability-linked instruments was released in November 2022 and has been externally reviewed by Ernst & Young.
Eligible Asset Criteria
•Green Assets will meet the eligibility criteria set out
to the right and will comply with one or more of the
Green Bond Principles, Green Loan Principles, or
the Climate Bonds Standard and contribute towards
meeting the United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs).
•A key metric is the Green Ratio whereby the total
green asset value must be at least equal to total
green debt (i.e. a ratio of 1.0 minimum). As at 31
December 2022, Contact’s Green Ratio is met at
1.6 times.
Thank you
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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