NZL Presentation to New Zealand Shareholders Association
E: info@nzrlc.co.nz | T: +64 9 217 2905
www.nzrlc.co.nz
14 September 2023
NZL Presentation to New Zealand Shareholders Association
Please find attached a copy of the presentation that NZL Director, Christopher Swasbrook gave on Wednesday, 13
September 2023 to the New Zealand Shareholders Association in Auckland.
For further information please contact:
Richard Milsom - Director, NZRLM
Mobile: 021 274 2476
Email: richard@nzrlm.co.nz
Christopher Swasbrook - Director, NZRLC
Mobile: 021 928 262
Email: chris@nzrlc.co.nz
---
1
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
www.nzrlc.co.nz
listed on:
Rural Land Co
New Zealand
The Rural Land Investors
NZSA Presentation
13 September 2023
2
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
DISCLAIMER
The information and opinions in this presentation were prepared by New Zealand Rural Land Company (NZL). NZL
makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. Opinions
including estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of NZL as at the date of this report
and are subject to change without notice. Such opinions are not guarantees or predictions of future performance.
This report is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Neither NZL, nor
any of its Board members, officers, employees, advisers (including New Zealand Rural Land Management Limited) or
any other representatives will be liable for any damage, loss or cost incurred by any recipient of this report or other
person in connection with this report.
Any applications for shares and warrants in NZL are subject in all respects to compliance with all applicable
securities offering laws.
All images are of rural property held within NZL’s portfolio.
New Zealand Rural Land Co (NZL)
owns and leases some of the best
farmland in the world, offering an
unparalleled investment opportunity.
Rural Land Co
New Zealand
The Rural Land Investors
Why is NZL Without Parallel?
A perfect combination of advantages
• A rapidly growing global population, food demand and a decrease in available productive
land means rural land is increasingly a more attractive investment and this scarce and critical food
production infrastructure has demonstrated consistent positive returns over time.
• New Zealand has the most productive agricultural land in the world. Water, soils, space and
climate come together to deliver world-leading low-cost production and carbon efficiency.
• NZL invests in land, not farm operations. There is no direct exposure to operational,
environmental or commodity price risks.
• NZL currently owns 14,847 hectares (36,988 acres) of high quality productive rural land in
New Zealand and leases it, long term.
• NZL is the only pure-play, NZX-listed exposure to agricultural land in New Zealand. As such NZL
provides investors with a liquid and inflation-hedged investment.
• For overseas investors NZL is one of the only ways they can gain exposure to New Zealand
agricultural land.
• NZL, since listing, has established a track record of outperforming the broader rural land market.
Rural Land Co
New Zealand
The Rural Land Investors
5
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
New Zealand is a World Leading Producer and Exporter
of Primary Products - for Good Reason
The World’s Most
Efficient and Lowest
Cost Producer
Advantaged Exporter,
Well Positioned for
Free Trade
Sustainably
Advantaged
World Class
Risk Mitigation
New Zealand’s temperate
climate, fertile soils and
pasture-based production
system results in lower cost of
production than the farming
systems used in most of the
world.
New Zealand’s natural
advantages and efficient
production means that the
country produces far more than
it can consume domestically.
This allows farmers to export
the majority of their goods to
high value international markets.
New Zealand has a lower
carbon footprint for its
primary products than most if
not all alternative producers.
The importance of agriculture
to the New Zealand economy
mitigates political risks to the
industry. While social risks are
mitigated by the industry’s
active management of social
perception and social licence.
95
%
of products are exported
to over 130 countries.
90m
people can source all
their dairy from New
Zealand.
$
12.9b
is the value of
New Zealand’s
Dairy Exports.
68
%
less carbon from cradle-to-
farm gate than the global
average.
1
st
of 50 countries for
Animal Welfare.
1
st
out of 113 countries for
Food Safety.
- 40
%
lower cost of
production than EU or
USA.
Temperate Climate
Fertile Soils
Pasture-based
Production
Carbon Footprint
water
emissions
electricity
transport
offsets
waste
recycling
gas
personnel
fuel
co
2
INTRODUCTION
6
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
New Zealand Rural Land Company is a landlord to New Zealand’s attractive agricultural sector.
We own rural land and lease it to high quality tenants.
NZL Today
NZL currently owns
hectares of rural land.
(36,688 acres)
14,847
Canterbury
6,333 ha owned
Otago
3,991 ha owned
Southland
1,386 ha owned
11.5 Years
Weighted Average Lease Term (WALT)
8
High Quality Tenants
100
%
Occupancy Rate
Manawatu - Whanganui
3,137 ha owned
INTRODUCTION
7
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
NZL Timeline Since IPO
21 December 2020
Completed $75m IPO
and listed on the
NZX.
23 March 2021
Announced first
$10.2m unconditional
acquisition in Southland,
New Zealand.
01 June 2021
Settled $112.5m of acquisitions
in North Otago, South
Canterbury and Southland.
04 June 2021
Announced 2:3 Pro-Rata Rights
Issue at $1.10 per share.
02 August 2021
Completed $12m acquisition in
South Canterbury, New Zealand.
10 November 2021
Settled $61.4m acquisition in
Otago, New Zealand.
23 September 2021
Completed rights issue and
shortfall placement to raise a
total of $38.8m
*
.
8 June 2022
Announced 1:5 Pro-Rata Rights
issue at $1.05 per share
9 August 2022
Completed rights
issue and shortfall
placement to raise a
total of $16.8m**.
30 June 2022
Completed $10.2m
pastoral farm acquisition in
Southland, New Zealand.
15 June 2022
Settled $18.4m pastoral farm
acquisition in Southland, New
Zealand.
* 87.52% of the Pro-Rata Rights Issue was taken up by investors.
** 82.63% of the Pro-Rata Rights Issue was taken up by investors.
NZL has raised a total of $154.7m in equity since IPO.
21 October 2022
Announced $63m forestry
estate acquisition in
Manawatu-Whanganui,
New Zealand.
1 March 2023
Announced Pro-Rata Rights
issue to raise $38.5m to settle
forestry acquisition on 15 April
2023.
15 March 2023
Raised $24.0m via
1:3 Pro-Rata Rights
issue.
INTRODUCTION
8
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
NZL Year to Date Highlights
INTRODUCTION
*Based on a share price of $0.85 as at 24 August 2023.
NAV per share has grown from $1.25 at listing to $1.534.
Share price is currently trading at a -44.6% discount to NAV/sh
*
.
Diversification via forestry acquisition (forestry now 30% of lease income).
Buy-back continues. The Board considers NZL to still be materially undervalued.
Accretive acquisitions boost full year Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share.
9
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
NZL At a Glance
$1.534
NAV per Share
$362.7m
Total Assets
$214.5m
Net Asset Value (NAV)
+31.4%
FY22-FY24 Forecast AFFO
per share CAGR*
37.1%
**
Gearing
INTRODUCTION
*From FY22 to full year FY24 based on actuals and guidance. Represents a forecast and may differ from actual results.
**Total tangible assets divided by total bank debt.
10
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
SECTION 1
NZL ADVANTAGES
11
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
SUSTAINABILITY
NZL Advantages
RISK MANAGEMENT
SECTORAL
RETURNS
STRUCTURAL
1
NZL ADVANTAGES
12
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
The global population is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050. A growing global population and surging demand for food alongside declining available
productive land provide a strong long-term global tailwind for productive land ownership.
Globally, productive rural land is a scarce/finite resource. New Zealand rural land is extremely well placed to capitalise on the global scarcity of high
quality arable land.
Sectoral Advantages
Arable Land Per Person (ha)
Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAOSTAT)
-
0.08
0.16
0.24
0.32
0.40
0.48
Arable Land per person (ha)
1
NZL ADVANTAGES
-56%
between 1962 and 2018
the amount of arable (productive)
land available per person to
produce food is in significant
decline.
13
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Sustainability Advantages
Soil in New Zealand is predominantly fertile volcanic loams – ideal for productive farming. This, coupled with New Zealand’s temperate climate, consistent
rainfall, adequate sunshine and ability to grow grass and other crops year round make it a highly advantaged, efficient, consistent and low cost producer of
primary products.
New Zealand’s pasture based farming system allow for easy transition of rural land to a range of alternative uses should conditions dictate (e.g. dairy to
sheep and beef rearing).
New Zealand’s low input pasture based farming methods enable meat and dairy products to be produced at significantly lower cost than the EU or US. In
the case of milk production it is a 40% - 50% lower cost than EU and US producers.
New Zealand dairy has the world’s lowest carbon emissions per kg of milk.
The production of sheep/lamb meat in New Zealand generates carbon emissions c.-63% lower than the global average. While beef production emits c.-77%
less carbon.
New Zealand’s Emissions Advantage
Source: Ag Research
*Fat and Protein Corrected Milk
1
NZL ADVANTAGES
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
14
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Sustainability Advantages (continued)
Additionally, NZL only selects tenants with a track record of environmentally sustainable performance. (All NZL’s leases also incorporate a requirement that
tenants reserve a large buffer of equity relative to annual lease costs to ensure that leases are paid even in adverse operating conditions).
Joint sustainability commitments are written into NZL’s binding leases. These reinforce the shared vision between NZL and its tenants of what sustainability
looks like and the commitment to proactively manage, mitigate and minimise greenhouse gas emissions, nutrient leaching and other potentially
environmentally harmful practices, while ensuring the welfare and wellbeing of the people, communities and animals connected to the land.
NZL’s directors and management have a track record of establishing and implementing sustainability initiatives across a number of New Zealand
businesses.
1
NZL ADVANTAGES
15
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Structural Advantages
NZL’s
STRUCTURAL
ADVANTAGE
ACCESS
TO
TRANSACTIONS
ACCESS
TO
CAPITAL
DOMESTIC
BUYER
DUE DILIGENCE
AND LEASE
STRUCTURE/S
ACCESS TO
QUALITY
TENANT
PARTNERSHIPS
Access to Transactions
• First mover
• Profile
• Volume
• Network
• Reputation
• Listed Company
Access to Tenants
• Reputation and structural appeal
• DD process - thorough and
proprietary
• Knowledgeable of who the best
potential tenants are
• Network
Access to Capital
• NZX listed
• Relationship with Rabobank
(and other rural lenders)
Domestically
Domiciled
• Speed and certainty for
vendors
• Ease of completion (no
OIO)
• Social license to purchase
farmland
Due Diligence and Lease Structure
• Advantaged and refined due diligence processes
• Proprietary and comprehensive leases and structures
• Proprietary risk vs. return analysis
• Highly repeatable process
1
NZL ADVANTAGES
16
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Risk Management Advantages
By only owning the land NZL has no direct exposure to the operational risks of farming:
No direct
on-farm risks
(via either sharemilker or
operational partner)
No direct
exposure
to volatile
commodity prices
Limited exposure
to environmental
risks
No exposure to
animal health
risks
No direct
exposure
to farmer
co-ops
Listing provides
greater liquidity
than syndicates
or direct
investments
Uncorrelated with
traditional assets
Easy and low cost
alternative use
Rural land assets
have much less
depreciating
improvements
Low
obsolescence risk
Food production
is an essential
service
Tenants with high
credit quality
and a history
of operational
excellence
By only owning rural land NZL has a number of advantages over traditional REITs:
1
NZL ADVANTAGES
Inflation hedged
asset class
17
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Land as an investment offers a low risk profile for investors, generates consistent returns (non-cyclical) and NZL since listing has a demonstrated history of
outperforming the farm price index
*
.
For the last 26 years the value of rural land in New Zealand has grown consistently, with REINZ’s Rural Land Price Index increasing at a CAGR of +6.6% per
annum, this is before operating or lease income, currently NZL is receiving >5% cash leases on capital deployed for low risk assets, these are all subject to
uncapped inflation adjusted leases and are triple net leases; meaning the responsibility for maintenance rests with the tenants.
The capital growth of rural land in New Zealand offers a significant tax advantage over other jurisdictions as capital gains are not taxed in New Zealand.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Mar-96
Jan-97
Nov-97
Sep-98
Jul-99
May-00
Mar-01
Jan-02
Nov-02
Sep-03
Jul-04
May-05
Mar-06
Jan-07
Nov-07
Sep-08
Jul-09
May-10
Mar-11
Jan-12
Nov-12
Sep-13
Jul-14
May-15
Mar-16
Jan-17
Nov-17
Sep-18
Jul-19
May-20
Mar-21
Farm Price Index
Return Advantage
Long Term New Zealand Farm Price Returns - Land Only
CAGR +6.6% p.a.
**
**REINZ Farm Price Index (excluding forestry and lifestyle blocks)
1
NZL ADVANTAGES
*REINZ Farm Price Index (excluding forestry and lifestyle blocks)
1.250
1.360
1.652
1.533
$1.0 0
$1.10
$1.20
$1.3 0
$1.4 0
$1.50
$1.60
$1.70
IPO as at 21 Dec 202031-Dec-2131-Dec-2230/06/2023 (Unaudited)
Net Asset Value Per Share
NAV Performance Since Listing
CAGR +8.5%
***
***This NAV growth has been achieved alongside an expansion of capital base from 60,600,000 shares on issue at IPO to 139,906,000 on issue as at 30 June 2023. Calculation assumes full participation in rights issues.
18
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
SECTION 2
NZL PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW
*6 month period to 30 June 2023.
19
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Portfolio Overview
1
WALT is weighted by lease value.
2
One of our tenants leases farms in both Canterbury and North Otago.
Region
OtagoCanterburySouthlandManawatu - WhanganuiTotal
Land Area (ha)
3,9916,3331,3863,13714,847
Rural Asset Class
Pastoral FarmsPastoral FarmsPastoral FarmsForestry
Pastoral Farms &
Forestry
Current Use
Dairy & SupportDairy & SupportDairy & Support Forestry & Carbon
Dairy, Support, Forestry
& Carbon
WALT (years)
1
7. 88.88.318.911.6
# Tenants
23318
2
Occupancy
100%100%100%100%100%
2
PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW
21.0%
46.4%
32.5%
Rural Sub-Sector Breakdown
20
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Tenant Concentration, Lease Profile & Lease Overview
Tenant Concentration as % of Lease Value
NZL expects tenant diversification to increase as it continues to grow its asset base.
NZL’s Weighted Average Lease Term (WALT) is currently 11.6 years* (100% occupancy).
NZL’s pastoral farm leases all have three, six and nine year uncapped CPI increases with tenant rights of renewal in years 10 or 11.
NZL’s forestry leases all have annual uncapped CPI increases.
All leases are triple net leases, tenants are responsible for all repair and maintenance costs.
Lease Expiry Profile by Value
* As at 24 August 2023
2
PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
FY22FY24FY26FY28FY30FY32FY34FY36FY38FY40FY42
$m
Tenancy 1Tenancy 2Tenancy 3Tenancy 4Tenancy 5Tenancy 6Tenancy 7Tenancy 8
6%
22%
7%
3%
19%
10%
3%
30%
Tenancy 1Tenancy 2Tenancy 3Tenancy 4Tenancy 5Tenancy 6Tenancy 7Tenancy 8
21
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
SECTION 3
NZL FINANCIALS FOR PERIOD ENDING
30 JUNE 2023
22
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Financial Highlights
Total Returns
Net asset value per share has grown from $1.25 at IPO
*
to $1.534
(at 30 June 2023), a total return CAGR of
+14.6% including dividends and a total return of +40.7%
**
.
* 21 December 2020
Significant Discount to NAV
Increasing AFFO/Share Guidance
A share price of $0.85 (24 August 2023), representing
a -44.6% discount to NAV, offers a compelling entry
point for a quality, defensive asset, with a strong rental
income growth outlook.
Strong uplift in AFFO guidance driven by forestry
acquisition. FY23 AFFO per share post forestry
acquisition is forecast to be 4.2 - 4.6 cps, FY24
AFFO per share is forecast to be 5.7 - 6.0 cps. This
represents an AFFO mid point CAGR of +31.4% from
FY22 - FY24.
Share Buy-Back Ongoing
NZL’s share buy-back continues. The Board considers
NZL to still be materially undervalued, and thus
continues to purchase shares on market. To date NZL
has repurchased 306,327 shares and intends to make
further repurchases at current levels as cash flow
permits.
3
FINANCIALS
23
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO)
1.96cps
AFFO
2.12cps
FFO
NZ$00030 June 2023
*
30 June 2022
**
Variance%
Net Profit After Tax2,49236,512(34,020)(93.1%)
Adjusted for:
Unrealised Net Gain on Investment Properties-(35,342)(35,342)-
Performance Fee Payable in Shares-4,115(4,115)-
Unrealised Net Gain on Derivatives260(960)+1,220+127.1%
Deferred Tax Expense / (Benefit)97(919)+1,016+110.6%
Amortisation of Rent Free Incentives8859+29+49.2%
Amortisation of Lease Fee2531(6)(19.4%)
Funds from Operations (FFO)2,9623,496(534)(15.2%)
FFO per Share2.123.10(0.98)(31.2%)
Adjusted Funds from Operations
Incentives and Leasing Costs109(1,110)+1,219(109.8%)
Future Maintenance Capital Expenditure(332)(178)+154+86.5%
Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO)2,7392,208+35124.0%
AFFO per share (cents)1.961.96--
3
FINANCIALS
AFFO is a proxy for free cash flow commonly used by REITs. AFFO is intended to provide investors with a clearer picture of the company’s free cash flow.
*6 month period to 30 June 2023.
**6 moth period to 30 June 2022.
Note: REIT - Real Estate Investment Trust, AFFO - Adjusted Funds From Operations, FFO - Funds From Operations
FY23 AFFO/share is forecast to be between 4.2 cps and 4.6 cps while FY24 AFFO per share is forecast to be between 5.7 cps and 6.0 cps.
24
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Profit & Loss Statement
NZ$000
30 June 2023
*
30 June 2022
**
Variance%
Gross Rental Income
Rental Income
6,8514,717+2,134+45.2%
Net Rental Income
6,8514,717+2,134+45.2%
Less Overhead Costs
Directors Fees
(114)(114)0-
Insurance
(41)(40)+1+2.5%
Management Fees
(503)(331)+172+52.0%
Repairs and Maintenance
(82)-+82-
Professional, Consulting and Listing Fees
(292)(187)(105)+56.2%
Performance Fee
-(4,115)(4,115)-
Total Overhead Costs
(1,032)(4,787)(3,755)(78.4%)
Profit / (Loss) Before Net Finance Income, Other
Income and Income Tax
5,819(70)+5,889+8,412.9%
Finance Income9261,842(916)(49.7%)
Finance Expense(4,156)(1,521)+2,635+173.3%
Net Finance Income(3,230)321(3,551)(1,106.3%)
Profit /(Loss) Before Other Income and Income Tax2,589251+2,338+931.5%
Other Income
Change in Fair Value of Investment Property-35,342(35,342)-
Profit / (Loss) Before Tax2,58935,593(33,004)(92.7%)
Income Tax Expense(97)919(966)(105.1%)
Profit / (Loss) and Total Comprehensive Income for the
Period
2,49236,512(34,020)(93.2%)
Earnings per Share (EPS) (cents)1.9237.27(35.45)(94.85%)
$2.49m
NPAT
1.92cps
EPS
+45.2%
Increase in Rental Income
*6 month period to 30 June 2023.
**6 month period to 30 June 2022.
3
FINANCIALS
25
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Balance Sheet
NZ$00030 June 202331 December 2022Variance%
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents2291,942(1,713)(88.2%)
Other Current Assets499282+217+77.0%
Total Current Assets7282,224(1,496)(67.3%)
Non-Current Assets
Investment Property275,597267,360+8,237+3.08%
Investment in forestry estate63,367-+63,367-
Deposit for Forestry Estate Acquisition-6,294(6,294)-
Loan receivable19,73319,144+589+3.08%
Derivative Assets2,3182,506(188)(7.5%)
Other Non-Current Assets9431,292(349)(27.0%)
Total Non-Current Assets361,919296,596+65,323+22.0%
Total Assets362,647298,820+63,827+21.4%
Current Liabilities
Trade and Other Payables2,214594+1,620+272.7%
Income in Advance292-+292-
Borrowings29,5001,968+27,532+1,399.0%
Convertible Note1,244-+1244-
Other Current Liabilities169319(150)(47.0%)
Total Current Liabilities33,4192,881+30,528+1060.0%
Non-Current Liabilities
Borrowings104,000105,000(1,000)(0.95%)
Convertible Note10,716-+10,716-
Total Non-Current Liabilities114,716105,000+9,716+9.25%
Total Liabilities148,135107,881+40,254+37.3%
Net Assets214,512190,939+23,573+12.4%
Total Equity214,512190,939+23,605+12.4%
NAV per Share1.534
*
1.652
**
(0.12)(7.4%)
$214.5m
Total Equity
$362.7m
Total Assets
*Shares on issue as at 30 June 2023 - 139,906,327
**Shares on issue as at 31 December 2022 - 115,601,570
+12.4%
Increase in NAV
3
FINANCIALS
26
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Debt Summary
2.1 Years
*
Weighted Average Term
to Expiry
6.42%
*
Weighted Average
Interest Cost
Key Metrics30 June 202331 December 2022
Debt Drawn ($m)133.5107.0
Debt to Total Assets37.1%36.1%
Interest Coverage Ratio1.8x2.4x
Weighted Average Term to Expiry (Years)2.02.4
Weighted Average Debt Cost6.42%5.6%
% of Debt Hedged53%39%
Total Debt Facilities Available ($m)133.5107.0
NZL Debt Facility Expiry Profile as at 30 June 2023
* As at 30 June 2023
** Gearing is calculated as: bank debt / total tangible assets
37.1%
**
Gearing
**
Key Banking Partner
NZL has hedging arrangements in place for 53% of its total borrowings costing, on average, 5.33%. The remaining debt is floating and the cost of the
floating debt component is 7.63%. Accordingly, NZL’s weighted average cost of debt is currently 6.42%.
34%
22%22%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27
Tranche ATranche B
Tranche C
Gr een Loan
3
FINANCIALS
27
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Total Returns
Dividends per Share Since Listing
NZL delivered $2.56m in AFFO in the six months to June 2023, +15.9% from the six months to June 2022 ($2.21m). NZL remains on track to meet its full
year AFFO guidance as it will capture the first full six months of lease income from its forestry estate over the second half of the year.
FY23 AFFO/share is forecast to be between 4.2 cps and 4.6 cps while FY24 AFFO per share is forecast to be between 5.7 cps and 6.0 cps.
AFFO / Share CAGR from listing to the end of FY24 is forecast to be +31.4%.
** Adjusted to reflect the change in balance date from 30 June 2022 to 31 December 2022.
*** Declared dividend for 6 months ending 31 December 2022.
****CAGR calculation is from FY22 - FY24 and includes forecasts, as such actual results may differ.
0.80
3.95
6.25
8.25
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
FY21 AFFO
Actual
FY22 AFFO
Actual
FY23 AFFO
Guidance - Midpoint
FY24 AFFO
Guidance - Midpoint
AFFO/share (cents)
AFFO $m
AFFOAFFO/Share
AFFO & AFFO/Share
+31.4%
AFFO/Share CAGR
****
2.01
1.6
2.03***
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
31-Dec-21FY 22**FY 23 - D ivi de nd
Suspended (Curren tly)
cps
3
FINANCIALS
28
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
SECTION 4
NZL OPERATIONAL UPDATE &
OUTLOOK
29
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
INTRODUCTION
Summary of FY23 To Date
On 14 April 2023, NZL announced the settlement of a forestry
estate acquisition which comprises five individual properties with
a total area of approximately 2,400 hectares. The total acquisition
cost was ~$63m. The estate is leased to New Zealand Forest
Leasing (NZFL) for a 20 year period with the first year’s lease
payment being ~$5m.
NZL funded the purchase with $25.2m of borrowings from
Rabobank. These borrowings were in the form of a green loan
established within a green financing framework managed and
reported on in line with Asia Pacific Loan Market Association’s
Green Loan Principles.
The equity component of the purchase was funded from the
proceeds of NZL’s pro-rata rights issue and a $12m convertible note
issued to an entity associated with NZFL. The note is unsecured
and pays an 8% p.a. coupon. NZL can redeem any part of the note
at any time without penalty.
On 28 April 2023, NZL announced the settlement of a
supplementary forestry acquisition for a purchase cost of
approximately $8m. NZL acquired 100% of the forest which has a
total area of 737ha. The forest is leased to NZFL for a period of 16
years. The purchase was funded through a combination of debt
from capacity in the previously established green loan facility and
equity remaining from the pro-rata rights issue.
4
OPERATIONAL UPDATE
On 26 May 2023 NZL announced an upgrade of FY24 earnings
guidance, suspension of the FY23 interim dividend and an on-
market share buyback.
NZL announced an upgrade to its forecast FY24 AFFO on 26
May 2023. This was due to the accretive nature of NZL’s forestry
acquisitions, FY24 is the the first full financial year in which the
forests will be owned by NZL. NZL’s FY24 AFFO forecast is
unchanged at $8.0m - $8.5m.*
The NZL Board considers that the current market price of NZL
shares materially undervalues both the assets and the free
cashflow profile of the business making shares purchased at this
level attractive and accretive on an asset and free cashflow basis
for shareholders.
In the Directors’ opinion, buying back shares was more attractive
for shareholders than paying dividends and the Board resolved to
suspend NZL’s dividend policy for the current six-month period.
NZL will use available cash flow to:
• continue to acquire NZL shares through an on-market share
buyback programme; and
• repay the convertible note recently issued to acquire the
forestry assets.
AcquisitionsCorporate Actions
*Assumes 100% of forest owned
30
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Outlook
NZL’s leases incorporate regular, uncapped, CPI reviews. Accordingly, high inflation will result in rental growth. Furthermore, NZL is insulated from inflation-
impacted (and all other operational) on-farm costs by owning only the land.
As announced to the market on 26 May 2023, post the forestry acquisition in April 2023, NZL’s AFFO for FY23 (1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023) is
forecast to be between $6.0m and $6.5m with FY24 AFFO forecast to be between $8.0m and $8.5m
**
. These forecasts remain unchanged.
FY23 AFFO per share post forestry acquisition is forecast to be between 4.2 cps and 4.6 cps while FY24 AFFO per share is forecast to be between 5.7 cps
and 6.0 cps.
From 1 July 2024, NZL will start to see the positive impact of inflation with approximately 55% of the portfolio (by lease income) due for CPI rental review.
CPI accumulated since the leases began (1 June 2021) totals +12.6% to 31 December 2022 and is forecast to be approximately +22.3% for the three years
to 30 June 2024.
NZL has hedging arrangements in place for 53% of its total borrowings costing, on average, 5.33%*. The remaining debt is floating and the cost of the
floating debt component is 7.63%. NZL’s weighted average cost of debt is 6.42%.
NZL’s investment properties are valued annually. The most recent valuation was in December 2022 and the next valuation occurs in December 2023. The
rural land market in the last 6 months remains resilient considering market conditions. The REINZ All Farm Price Index has declined a largely immaterial
-2.39% in the 6 month period from December 2022.
4
OUTLOOK
*as at 30 June 2023
**AFFO forecasts assume that NZL acquires 100% of the forest estate.
31
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Updates from the Timber, Carbon & Dairy Markets
In April 2023, NZL acquired a 2,400ha forestry estate in Manawatu-Whanganui and, in the same month added a further 737 ha in the same region. Both
estates are leased long term to New Zealand Forest Leasing (NZFL).
The Carbon market / Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) market has seen significant volatility with the current carbon/NZU price at approximately $65*. The
volatility was largely attributed to increased uncertainty. The government’s decision in December 2022 to decline the Climate Change Commission’s (CCC)
price control recommendations for 2023-2027 played a crucial role in driving down prices from nearly $90 to below $35. The CCC’s advice was rejected due to
concerns carbon price increases would exacerbate inflation. It is worth reiterating that NZL is sheltered from price swings in NZU’s as NZL only owns the
land, not the derived carbon or timber revenues, and has an experienced, well capitalised tenant in NZFL.
Recently, the price of NZU’s have increased to ~$65 after the climate change minister James Shaw offered some market certainty and announced the
government would adopt the Climate Change Commissions advice.
Due to an ongoing review of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) there is further short-term market uncertainty. The consultation has been triggered by
concern around the possibility that the current settings of the ETS do not provide adequate incentives for businesses to reduce their emissions directly,
instead promoting reliance on carbon offsets through forest planting (consultation closed 11 August 2023). The government is inviting submissions on four
potential amendments to the current frame work. We believe our properties in the forestry sector are supported by long term tailwinds in the carbon price
and timber sectors alongside a well established market participant in NZFL.
Fonterra’s FY23 mid point milk price is currently $6.75 kg/ms, which is lower than some farmer’s cost of production. NZL and NZRLM are offering support
to tenants with access to advice and operational support experts. All leases continue to be current and we continue to monitor and offer assistance where
useful.
UPDATE
4
Timber & Carbon
Dairy Market
*As at 24 August 2023.
32
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Sector:Description:Time frame:
NZ’s environment provides for a wide variety of forestry and tree based
carbon sequestration due to its natural advantages in soil, climate and
rainfall.
First transaction
completed.
NZ’s environment suits dairy farming and has a lower cost of production,
in an environment of growing demand.
Existing
ownership
A growing demand supported by supportive government policies and
decreasing costs of renewable energy construction provides attractive
alternative land use.
Near-term
horizon
Eggs are highly nutritious and relatively low cost food which New
Zealand has a competitive advantage in producing, due to its suitability
for free range and local production of feed, both of which have lower
carbon footprints than more intensive operations.
Near-term
horizon
New Zealand’s maritime climate, fertile soils and elongated geography
allow for regional wine variations including Pinot Noir and Sauvignon
Blanc. We believe forecast macro trends will provide for more favourable
future acquisition pricing in the sector.
Medium-term
horizon
New Zealand’s climate and soil allows for the production of a range of
high quality produce with Kiwifruit the largest crop. NZL considers that
the sector is largely fully priced but continues to monitor opportunities
as they arise.
Medium-term
horizon
Creating a Diversified Rural Land Portfolio Over Time
Portfolio Construction:
NZL’s initial focus has been on
acquiring New Zealand pastoral
properties.
Intention is to expand focus
to other New Zealand primary
sectors, particularly as investment
opportunities arise in horticulture,
viticulture and forestry as well as
sheep and beef.
Subsector focus as at September
2023 is as follows:
Target Rural Land Asset Classes:
GREENENERGY
D
AIRY
POUL
TRY
VITICUL
TURE
HORTICUL
TURE
FORESTRY
KEY
CURRENTLY
MOST
DESIRABLE
CURRENTLY
LEAST
DESIRABLE
As NZL grows it will continue
to diversify its portfolio and tenants while
delivering attractive
risk-adjusted returns.
OUTLOOK
4
33
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Summary
NZL provides investors with exposure to:
Favourable Industry
Dynamics
A Proven Value Add
Acquirer of Land
Attractive Total ReturnsHigh Quality Tenants
with Attractive WALT
A Significant Growth
Opportunity
Long term demand for key
commodities and food
vs declining availability
of productive land drives
land values. Productive
rural land is finite in supply
and its value is founded
on worldwide population
growth, growing food
demand, and yield-
boosting innovation
Increasing scarcity of
productive land globally is
mirrored in New Zealand.
New Zealand is one of the
world’s lowest-cost and
lowest-carbon emitting
producers of protein, fibre
and timber in the world.
Successfully acquired
more than 14,800 hectares
of pastoral farm land and
forestry since listing on 21
December 2020.
NAV per share increased
from $1.250 (21 December
2020) to $1.533 as at 30
June 2023. This represents
total increase in NAV of
+22.7%.
NAV growth has been
achieved alongside an
expansion to capital base
from 60.6m shares on
issue at IPO to ~139.9m
shares on issue as at 30
June 2023.
NAV has grown by +22.7%
since NZL’s IPO. NZL has
paid/declared a total of
5.64 cps in dividends since
listing with the most recently
declared dividend (2.03 cps)
+26.9% higher than that paid
for the six months ended 30
June 2022 (1.60 cps).
Farmland does not
typically experience the
same volatility that mark
economic changes. It usually
experiences peaks and
plateaus – appreciating
at an attractive rate when
times are positive but not
necessarily retreating when
conditions are tough, this
is driven by its increasing
scarcity.
All tenants have significant
operating experience,
robust balance sheets and
governance frameworks.
11.6 year WALT (by value).
NZL provides unique
investment exposure as it
is currently the only pure-
play listed exposure to
New Zealand rural land.
NZL provides inflation
hedging and stable income
via CPI-linked leases
(uncapped).
NZL’s strategy is to
continue to grow its
portfolio, both in dairy
and other attractive
agricultural opportunities,
to ultimately provide scale
and diversified exposure to
high quality New Zealand
rural land.
NEW ZEALAND
Rural Land Co
4
SUMMARY
34
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
APPENDIX 1
NZL COMPANY STRUCTURE & OWNERSHIP
35
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Company Structure & Board
Listed
ROB CAMPBELL
Independent
Chair
SARAH
KENNEDY
Independent
Director
CHRISTOPHER
SWASBROOK
Non-Independent
Director
TIA
GREENAWAY
Independent
Director
Chancellor - AUT
Chair - Ara Ake
Director - Comvita NZ
CEO - Calocurb Limited
CEO - Designer Textiles International*
Vice President International Farming - Fonterra*
CEO & Director - Vitaco Health Limited*
CEO - Healtheries of New Zealand Ltd*
Ngāti Tūwharetoa and Waikato-Tainui
Leads the Rautaki Māori team for He Pou a
Rangi - Climate Change Commission
Various roles on Iwi and Ahu Whenua
Trusts and Committees
Bachelor of Music
Masters in Professional Accounting
Chartered Accountants ANZ
* Denotes previously held role
Managing Director – Elevation Capital
Management
Board Member – Financial Markets
Authority
Director – NZX listed Allied Farmers,
Bethunes Investment Limited, Ruapehu
Alpine Lifts Limited and Swimtastic Limited
Partner - Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty*
Co-Head of Institutional Equities at
Goldman Sachs JBWere*
Accountant
Auditor
Registry
NEW ZEALAND
RURAL LAND
MANAGEMENT
Rural Land Co
New Zealand
The Rural Land Investors
1
APPENDIX
Listed
36
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Key People
ROB CAMPBELL
Independent Chair
Chancellor - AUT
Chair - Ara Ake
CHRISTOPHER SWASBROOK
Non-Independent Director
Managing Director – Elevation Capital Mgmt Limited
Board Member – Financial Markets Authority (FMA)
Member - NZX Lisiting Sub Committee
Director – Bethunes Investments Limited, McCashin’s
Brewery Limited, Ruapehu Alpine Lifts Limited,
Swasbrook Securities Limited and Swimtastic Limited
Previously a Partner of Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty
Limited & Co-Head of Institutional Equities at Goldman
Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited
SARAH KENNEDY
Independent Director
CEO - Calocurb Limited
Previously CEO - Designer Textiles
International
Previously Vice President International
Farming - Fonterra
Previously CEO / Member of the Board
of Directors - Vitaco Health Limited
Previously CEO - Healtheries of New
Zealand Ltd
TIA GREENAWAY
Independent Director
Hailing from Ngāti Tūwharetoa and
Waikato-Tainui
CFO - Tupu Angitu
Various roles on Iwi and Ahu Whenua
Trusts and Committees
SHELLEY RUHA
Director
Director - Heartland Bank
Director - Allied Farmers
Director - Icehouse
Director - 9 Spokes
Previously - BNZ Senior Management Team and leader of BNZ
Partners
RICHARD MILSOM
Executive Director & Founder
Consultant - Elevation Capital Management Limited
Managing Director - Allied Farmers
CEO – Bellevue Enterprises Limited – Bovine & Porcine Genetic
Improvement & Sustainable Pork Production Company
Director - W2 Dairies
INFINZ Emerging Leader 2017
HAYDEN DILLON
Founder & Consultant
Managing Partner Findex (Waikato) & Head of Agribusiness New
Zealand for Findex.
Independent Director - Williams Holdings Limited
Independent Director - Aquila Sustainable Farms Limited and
associated Limited Partner Farms.
Independent Director Rowing New Zealand.
Trustee - South Waikato Investment Fund
Chairman - Bioceta Limited
Previously - Senior Partner Bank Of New Zealand – Waikato
Previously - Corporate Relationship Manager Food Fibre &
Beverage National Australia Bank - Melbourne
Fellow FINSIA
RURAL PROPERTY MANAGERS
Rural Property Managers
RURAL VALUERS
Independent Consultants
XAVIER LYNCH
General Manager - Corporate
Executive, Corporate Finance - Bancorp Merchant Bankers
Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance - Deloitte New Zealand
Analyst - Todd Property Group
Investment Analyst - Crown Irrigation Investments Limited
CHRISTOPHER SWASBROOK
Founder & Consultant
See above.
AGRICULTURAL ENVIRONMENTAL SPECIALISTS
Independent Consultants
FARM CONSULTANTS
Independent Consultants
New Zealand Rural Land Co
The Rural Land Investors
New Zealand Rural Land Management
1
APPENDIX
37
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Foreign Ownership Rules & Levels
New Zealand Buyer
NZL is highly advantaged
because it is a
New Zealand buyer
of rural land.
Current Listed Company
Foreign Ownership Rules
Under the Overseas Investment
Amendment Act 2021, NZL can have
foreign domiciled shareholders of up
to 49.9% of its share register (subject
to certain share parcel restrictions).
Private companies in NZ are limited to
less than 25%.
Current NZL Foreign
Ownership
As at 30 June 2023, NZL had
foreign domiciled shareholders
amounting to ~21.89% of its
share register.
1
APPENDIX
38
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
APPENDIX 2
KEY RISKS
39
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Key Risks
KEY RISKS
Land Value RiskNZL will realise its strategy for capital growth in the value of rural land that it acquires only if NZL acquires rural land at a purchase price that is less
than the rural land’s future value. This requires NZL to predict future value when acquiring rural land, which involves inherent uncertainty. Acquiring
unproductive land and other external factors may reduce land value below the price that NZL paid to acquire that land.
NZL’s rural land is currently concentrated in the dairy sector and until there is greater diversification in its rural land holdings, the value of NZL’s
land is susceptible to value decreases if there is a sustained downturn in the dairy sector. The acquisition of the forestry estate will help to mitigate
this risk by diversifying NZL's rural land holdings into the forestry sector. NZL’s rural land assets are also each of a relatively large scale making the
number of potential buyers more limited. Therefore, any realisation of NZL’s rural land assets may take longer to realise for an appropriate sale price.
Tenant Risk (financial)NZL’s income is rental payments received from Tenants who lease NZL’s rural land. Tenants are exposed to the financial risks associated with
operations on the land (for example, commodity price fluctuations, increases in operating costs, health risks to stock). If Tenants do not manage
those risks or lack the financial capacity to absorb those risks Tenants may default on lease payments to NZL. If NZL is required to replace a Tenant,
NZL may have a period where it is receiving no or reduced income from the rural land that it owns while a replacement is appointed. This could
impact on NZL’s ability to pay dividends. Accordingly, NZL investors are indirectly exposed to operational farming risks given that those risks can
cause Tenants to become insolvent and reduce NZL’s income.
NZL currently has seven Tenants leasing its rural land holdings and will bring on one additional tenant as part of the acquisition of the forestry estate
(whose financial position is dependent on the forestry and carbon industries, not dairy). Diversifying this Tenant base over time is a key mitigant for
NZL to ensure it is not overly exposed to the financial position of any one Tenant.
Tenant Risk
(operational)
Operational practices of Tenants on NZL’s rural land could damage the rural land and decrease its value. For example, poor environmental or
unsustainable farming practices could reduce production on the rural land and lead to regulatory actions.
As with the Tenant risk (financial), NZL’s tenant selection criteria becomes a key mitigant where, in addition to selecting Tenant’s that are financially
sound, Tenant’s need to demonstrate a high degree of operational experience and a history of using best farming/agricultural practices.
2
APPENDIX
40
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Key Risks (continued)
KEY RISKS
Financing RiskTo grow and diversify its rural land holdings, NZL needs to access capital to fund acquisitions. Capital is sourced from a combination of bank debt
and proceeds from equity issuances.
NZL’s ability to raise capital from equity issuances will be subject to its financial performance, investor sentiment and prevailing market conditions.
These factors cannot be assured.
For bank debt, NZL has a medium-term target of maintaining a loan to value ratio (LVR) of 30% and, a bank covenant requiring the LVR to be no
more than 40%. The LVR of NZL is currently 37.7% as at 30 June 2023. Borrowing to an LVR at the higher end of this range has enabled NZL to act
on acquisition opportunities as they arose and grow its rural land holdings more rapidly. However, this has also reduced the headroom that NZL has
with its bank covenant which could be a material risk if rural land values decreased. In addition, this exposes NZL more to interest rate increases.
Capital Expenditure
Risk
There could be unbudgeted capital expenditure on rural land that NZL acquires reducing the expected return from that land for NZL. Such
unbudgeted capital expenditure, or capital expenditure cost overruns may occur if repairs and maintenance are not being properly undertaken,
which will generally be the responsibility of the Tenant. Changes in environmental laws or environmental law non-compliance could give rise to
unforeseen capital expenditure necessary for compliance or remediation.
COVID-19 Pandemic
Risks
COVID-19 has and continues to cause significant supply chain disruptions for both domestic and international markets. To date, global supply
chains have prioritised the delivery of food products, minimising disruption to the New Zealand dairy sector. However, supply chain disruptions are
continuing and if they do start impacting more on food products, this could increase spoilage of dairy products, cause increases in operating costs
and a reduction in profitability for Tenants.
Extreme Weather
Events
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency/severity of extreme weather events. Extreme weather can cause long-term damage to NZL's
assets this damage may include slips, flooding or windthrow while the infrastructure necessary for tenants to conduct their operations may be also
be damaged or destroyed. Extreme weather events may also cause significant supply chain disruptions for both domestic and international markets.
Supply chain distruptions could increase spoilage of dairy products, cause increases in operating costs and a reduction in profitability for Tenants.
Forestry Industry
Regulation
New Zealand's Emissions Trading Scheme is relatively mature in a global context. However, legislation is changed frequently as the country works
towards national emissions budgets. There is therefore a risk that the government makes changes to the Emissions Trading Scheme and its
associated legislation that negatively impacts the returns to the tenant of the forestry estate or NZL as owner of the forestry estate.
2
APPENDIX
41
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
APPENDIX 3
INDEX INCLUSIONS, BROKER RESEARCH
COVERAGE & INVESTOR CONTACTS
42
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Index Inclusions and Broker Research Coverage
FTSE Global Micro Cap IndexS&P / NZX All Real Estate Index
Broker Research Coverage
Kieran Carling
kieran.carling@craigsip.com
Nicholas Hill
nicholas.hill@craigsip.com
Arie Dekker
arie.dekker@jarden.co.nz
Vishhal Bhula
vishal.bhula@jarden.co.nz
Index Inclusions
3
APPENDIX
MSCI World Micro Cap Index
S&P / NZX Micro Cap Index
43
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
Investor Contacts
Christopher Swasbrook
chris@nzrlc.co.nz
+64 21 928 262
Level 4, The Blade
12 St Marks Road
Remuera
Auckland 1050
New Zealand
Richard Milsom
richard@nzrlm.co.nz
+64 21 274 2476
Level 1
85 Fort Street
Auckland Central
Auckland 1010
New Zealand
3
APPENDIX
44
NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND COMPANY
v
New Zealand Rural Land Company
Level 1, 85 Fort Street
Auckland Central
Auckland 1010
New Zealand
+64 9 217 2905
info@nzrlc.co.nz
www.nzrlc.co.nz
nzrlc
nzrlc
listed on:
Rural Land Co
New Zealand
The Rural Land Investors
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- ALF — Allied Farmers Limited: FY23 Annual Report2023-08-28
“SECTION 3. CHAIR REPORT New Zealand Rural Land Management (NZRLM) - 100% owned: NZRLM is the external manager of NZX listed New Zealand Rural Land Company (NZL). NZL currently owns 14,847 hectares of rural land and forest estates, an increase of 3,137 hectares durin g FY23…”