MLN – September 2023 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for August was down 1.2%,
while the adjusted NAV return was down 0.9%. This compared
with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap
Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was down 1.0%.
In August, global equities were down 2.3%. Emerging Market
equities were down 6.1% (primarily China weakness). US equities
outperformed, down 1.6% while European equities were down
3.8%.
The primary driver of global share price weakness was the rise
in bond yields during the month. At one stage, the US 10-year
bond yield as a proxy for global interest rates had risen circa
0.4% (40bp) for the month and had pushed through the previous
highs from October last year. This was frustrating for investors
because US inflation peaked way back in October last year and
has since fallen by two thirds from 9% to 3%.
However, longer dated interest rates are not just a function of
inflation, they are also a function of growth. And the recession
the market had feared hasn’t materialised yet - the US recently
released June quarter GDP growth of 2.4%, stronger than
expected. While good news, the combination of the lagged
impact of the sharp central bank rate hike cycle over the last
12-18 months, plus the added stress of the recent move higher
in long-term borrowing rates has the potential to blunt the growth
recovery.
Portfolio News
Amazon (+8%) had better-than-expected 2Q23 earnings
in August. Amazon’s important cloud computing platform,
AWS
2
, showed signs of growth stabilising. Customers have
been optimising their cloud spend, which has been a growth
headwind. Amazon’s advertising business continues to grow
strongly (+22%) and gain digital advertising market share.
Amazon’s operating income grew 132%, above expectations.
The company is driving up the utilisation of its expanded supply
chain infrastructure. Guidance for next quarter’s operating
income was also well above expectations.
Icon (+8%) was up as sentiment continues to improve for the
wider clinical research industry. Despite fears earlier this year of
a prolonged slowdown in clinical research activity, fundamentals
continue to hold up. Biotech funding is expected to return to
growth this year, and leading clinical research organisations like
Icon continue to see growth in new bookings helped by market
share gains versus smaller competitors.
Mastercard (+9%) noted that consumer spending continues to
remain resilient during its second quarter earnings report. The
company beat revenue and earnings expectations in the quarter
and continues to execute well. Mastercard had strong growth
in Europe (+16%) on the back of winning large card portfolios
with large European banks. Cross-border volumes are growing
strongly (+24%) as consumers continue to spend towards travel
experiences.
Boston Scientific (+9%) reacted positively to the presentation
of positive results from a key clinical trial. The better-than-
expected outcomes from the Advent trial puts Boston Scientific
in a strong position to take market share in the $8 billion
atrial fibrillation medical device market, driving upside to the
company’s medium-term growth expectations.
PayPal (-14%) released disappointing second quarter results.
While payment volumes were robust, take rates, transaction
expenses and transaction margins were weaker than expected.
PayPal’s unbranded processing unit continues to make good
strides, growing 30% in the quarter and winning large new
customers such as Booking.com. Meanwhile, PayPal’s core
branded button growth has started to show early signs of growth
reacceleration. The company continues to take cost out of its
business and buyback shares aggressively.
Greggs (-8%) had a weaker month after reporting its results
for the first half. The company is executing well on its store
roll-out strategy, growing stores by 50 to 2,378 in the half. To
support the store roll-out ambitions Greggs is investing in supply
chain infrastructure. Given the investment needed the market is
concerned about future returns on capital. Greggs value price-
point continues to be market leading and Greggs continues to
take market share.
Floor & Décor (-9%) lowered guidance for the year at its second
quarter earnings report. As a result of higher mortgage rates,
existing home sales (a key driver of flooring demand) remain
weaker than management had expected. Though disappointing,
when comparing to other listed peers, Floor & Décor continues
to gain market share amidst a tricky macro environment.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places)
2
Amazon Web Services
MONTHLY UPDATE
September 2023
$
0.95
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
0.95 0.5
%
as at 31 August 2023
Warrant Price
$
0.02
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 August 2023
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.08
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
207m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$196m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
US discount retailers Dollar Tree (-17%) and Dollar General
(-14%) fell on disappointing earnings. Historically both
companies ran leanly staffed stores, which meant they could not
adequately respond to supply chain unpredictability. Additionally,
nationwide labour shortages have made it difficult to find staff to
keep stores operating at a high level. This is driving higher than
expected wage costs. Nonetheless, both companies are well
positioned in the current environment of elevated inflation as US
consumers continue to turn to discount / off-price retailers to
make their money go further.
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 August 2023
23
%
10
%
19
%
FINANCIALS
20
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 August 2023
7
%
WEST
EUROPE
79
%
NORTH
AMERICA
4
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
18
%
10
%
ASIA
4
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
Portfolio Changes
During the month we increased our weighting in Microsoft and
Edwards Lifesciences while reducing weighting in Floor & Décor
and Icon
.
HEALTH CARE
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
6
%
CONSUMER
STAPLES
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
3
AUGUST’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
(in local currency) during the month
MASTERCARD
+9
%
FLOOR & DÉCOR
-9
%
PAYPAL
-14
%
DOLLAR TREE
-14
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 August 2023
AMAZON
8
%
ALPHABET
7
%
META PLATFORMS
6
%
ICON
6
%
GARTNER
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 16 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 August 2023
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(2.3%)+6.9%(6.2%)+0.6%+9.5%
Adjusted NAV Return(0.9%)+5.2%+9.9%+3.3%+7.4%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (1.2%)+5.8%+12.2%+5.5%+10.3%
Benchmark Index^(1.0%)+7.5%+12.5%+9.8%+6.7%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
DOLLAR GENERAL
-17
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 August 2023
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced an issue of warrants (MLNWF)
on 18 October 2022
»Information pertaining to the warrants was
mailed/emailed to all shareholders on
25 October 2022
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every
four Marlin shares held based on the record date
of 2 November 2022
»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on
3 November 2022 and listed on the NZX Main
Board from 4 November 2022
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.99,
adjusted down for the aggregate amount per
Share of any cash dividends declared on the
shares with a record date during the period
commencing on the date of allotment of the
warrants and ending on the last Business Day
before the final Exercise Price is announced by
Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the warrants is
10 November 2023
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated to
it from the Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement and other
written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is
managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio
Manager), Chris Waters (Senior
Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang
and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)
have prime responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together they
have significant combined experience
and are very capable of researching
and investing in the quality global
companies that Marlin targets. Fisher
Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.