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KFL – September 2023 Quarterly Newsletter

Quarterly Update17 October 2023KFLFinancials

In the September quarter, Kingfish delivered a gross performance return
of −4.9% and an adjusted NAV return of −5.1%, versus the −5.2% return

of the S&P/NZX50 gross index. It was a tough quarter for global share

markets with the MSCI World index down −3.5%. New Zealand shares

lagged other markets in part due to the economic climate remaining

tougher locally than offshore.

Defensive companies outperformed in a tough environment for New

Zealand companies

Quarterly performance was led by Summerset (+8% return in the

quarter) which proved its weak March quarter sales performance was

an aberration by delivering a much-improved result for the June quarter.

Despite the pressure on house prices since late 2021, Summerset has been

able to hold its pricing and capture development margins. It continues to

see strong demand for its offering.

Two resilient performers were Infratil (+1%) and Contact Energy (+3%).

Infratil noted at its annual meeting that it is tracking towards the top end

of its profit guidance for the year ahead. Contact delivered a strong finish

to its financial year and promising outlook for the new year. It will see its

newly built Tauhara geothermal plant begin to contribute to earnings from

2024, replacing more expensive gas generation. The company expects

a new supply agreement to be reached with the Tiwai Point aluminium

smelter at a higher price, which would enable an increase to its dividend.

Several of our economically exposed companies were not immune

from the more challenging environment. Mainfreight (−8%) provided

a first quarter update in July, which was weaker than expected as it is

seeing lower freight volumes through its network. Trading conditions in

Freightways’ (+1%) core courier business remained challenging, with

volumes in the six months to June averaging around 2% lower than the

corresponding period in 2022. Underlying same-customer volumes

have been weaker, 5-6% down, however the company is winning new

customers by virtue of its superior delivery performance. Vulcan Steel

(−6%) has seen slower market conditions in its New Zealand steel

distribution business, with the Australian business performing better.

Positively, its number of Active Trading Accounts have reached record

levels. a2 Milk (−15%) has continued to be a clear leader in the China

infant formula category, taking market share in its key sales channels and

improving brand awareness to new highs. However, this strong execution

is being blunted by fewer births in China than we expected which is

weighing on its growth.

Overall, we have increased Kingfish’s exposure to defensive companies

over the last 12 months, which has mitigated some of this headwind. We

also remain positive about the companies doing it tough right now, they

are operating effectively and taking share from competitors. This bodes

well for when the headwinds abate.

Fisher & Paykel, Infratil’s Longroad Energy, and Vista showcased their

businesses in the US

Three portfolio companies with meaningful US businesses hosted investor

days in short succession in September. It is always beneficial seeing a

company’s business in action and speaking at length with a wide range of

people from different areas of the business on long-term perspectives.

Longroad has the opportunity to develop a portfolio of renewable

electricity projects in the US, largely solar farms with battery storage. Its

highly capable and aligned team have developed a large pipeline of

development projects. By building this out, Longroad expects to grow

operating earnings threefold to around US$600 million. The Infratil team

has also proven it is adept in supporting and crystallising value from these

types of platforms.

The Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) investor event coincided with

the official opening of its third manufacturing building in Mexico. A

highlight was observing the culture of the team and focus on continuous

improvement. Its people, or ‘collaborators’ as they are referred to

internally, showcased the company’s Business Excellence Model, with

thousands of small projects annually contributing to improvement. The

company expects it will lift gross margins back towards its target of 65%,

which has been achieved previously. A ‘symposium’ style discussion with

a number of clinicians demonstrated it has a remaining long runway

for adoption of its Optiflow nasal high flow therapy in hospitals in the

US, in multiple areas of the hospital. This included citing superior patient

outcomes, a reduced need to escalate patients to intensive care, and

reducing healthcare costs. Overall, the event re-emphasised the high

quality of the FPH business and long-term growth trajectory it is on.

Weakness in FPH’s share price during the quarter (−12%) was partly due

to growing hype around an emerging class of weight loss drugs that could

revolutionise the treatment of obesity. For FPH the specific concern is that

reduced obesity rates would reduce the longer-term growth potential for its

obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) masks business, which is the smaller part of

the group behind Optiflow. We remain positive on the growth outlook for

FPH's OSA business. OSA remains a large and underpenetrated market

today, with diagnosis rates thought to be less than 20%. Obesity rates

have been increasingly globally, for instance the 42% of US adults who

are obese is expected to grow to 49% by 2030. Many patients will not

see enough improvement in their condition through weight loss drugs alone

to avoid using an OSA mask. These factors will likely see the addressable

market continue to grow at healthy rates after factoring in an impact from

weight loss drugs. We also expect that the FPH team can continue to grow

its share in masks from a relatively low base.

Cinema software business Vista (−17%) reiterated the ongoing recovery

of the cinema industry it is witnessing. There was also an emphasis that

industry participants will continue to modernise their software technology,

with two industry perspectives adding some context. The company

reiterated its 2025 aspirations and provided some new detail to illustrate

the progress towards these targets. While the company remains confident

of its targets, it is clear investors are wanting to see more evidence to build

confidence in its execution, hence the softer share price. Management

will need to demonstrate progress in the form of ‘runs on the board’ to see

investor confidence match its own.

1

Share price discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expense, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER

1 July 2023 – 30 September 2023

as at 30 September 2023

Matt Peek

Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

13 October 2023

1

KFL NAV

$

1. 3 0

$

1. 2 6

Share Price

DISCOUNT

1

2 .1

%


Warrant Price

$

0.0 3

2
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is

by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or

completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial

adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund

performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

3 Months

3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(3.2%)+0.1%+7.9%

Adjusted NAV Return(5.1%)+0.4%+6.2%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (4.9%)+1.7%+8.2%

S&P/NZX50G Index(5.2%)(1.3%)+3.9%


Non-GAAP Financial Information

Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross

performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures

is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital

allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV value,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection,

before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price

performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to

shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment

plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant

expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total

shareholder return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-

GAAP measures are described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the

policy is available kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies.

LISTED COMPANIES% Holding

Auckland Intl Airport8.6%

Contact Energy7.2%

Delegat Group2.3%

EBOS Group4.7%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare14.6%

Freightways3.1%

Infratil17.6%

Mainfreight15.0%

Meridian Energy2.0%

Port of Tauranga2.6%

Ryman Healthcare4.5%

Summerset7.9%

The a2 Milk Company3.1%

Vista Group International3.4%

Vulcan Steel1.1%

Equity Total97.7%

New Zealand dollar cash2.3%

TOTAL100.0%

PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY

as at 30 September 2023

COMPANY NEWS

Dividend Paid 22 September 2023

A dividend of 2.79 cents per share was paid to Kingfish shareholders on 22 September 2023 under the quarterly distribution policy. Interest in

Kingfish’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high with 40% of shareholders participating in the plan. Shares issued to DRP participants are at

a 3% discount to market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar, Computershare on (09) 488 8777.

PERFORMANCE

as at 30 September 2023

Kingfish Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand

Phone: +64 9 489 7094

Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz

If you would like to receive future

newsletters electronically please email

us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz

SIGNIFICANT RETURNS

IMPACTING THE PORTFOLIO

DURING THE QUARTER

SUMMERSET

+8

%

MAINFREIGHT

−8

%

FISHER & PAYKEL

HEALTHCARE

−12

%

THE A2 MILK

COMPANY

−15

%

VISTA

GROUP

−17

%

FOREIGN TAX COMPLIANCE ACT (FATCA) AND COMMON REPORTING

STANDARD (CRS)


As a result of the New Zealand Government agreeing to participate in the exchange of information with other jurisdictions under the Foreign Tax

Compliance Act (FATCA) and Common Reporting Standard (CRS), Financial Institutions are required to undertake due diligence to determine the

account holders’ jurisdiction of tax residence. If shareholders have not previously self-certified, they will receive a Tax Residency Self-Certification form

from Computershare depending on when they first purchased their securities. Please ensure you complete and return this important document if you

have not already done so. For more information please visit the IRD website: ird.govt.nz/international-tax/exchange-of-information/crs/registration-

and-reporting or contact Computershare if you are unsure of whether you have completed your form.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.