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Northington Partners Independent Report

General19 October 2023FCGConsumer Staples

19 October 2023

Northington Partners Independent Report


The attached independent report, prepared by Northington Partners at the request of the Fonterra Co-

operative Council (on behalf of Fonterra), for the purposes of s109LA of the Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001, has been provided to shareholders by the Fonterra Co-operative Council.


ENDS


For further information contact:


Anya Wicks

Company Secretary

Phone: +64 21 283 0945

---

FONTERRA
CO-OPERATIVE

COUNCIL

Review of FY23 Performance

Fonterra Co-operative Group

October 2023

Review of FY23 Performance |
2

Important Notice

Declarations

This report is dated 19 October 2023 and has been prepared by Northington Partners at the request

of the Fonterra Co-operative Council (“

FCC”) on behalf of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited

(“

Fonterra”) for the purposes of s109LA of the Dairy Industry Restructuring Act 2001. The report is

intended to provide Fonterra shareholders and unitholders with an independent review of Fonterra’s

performance for FY23.

The analysis and views expressed in this report have been prepared independently of Fonterra and

FCC by Northington Partners. Fonterra has not provided any input into the content of this report and

provides no warranty or assurance as to the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information

in it. Fonterra does not accept or assume any duty, responsibility or liability to any party (including,

without limitation, in negligence) in connection with this report.

Qualifications

Northington Partners provides an independent corporate advisory service to companies operating

throughout New Zealand. The company specialises in corporate advisory, mergers and acquisitions,

capital raising support, expert opinions, financial instrument valuations, and business and share

valuations. Northington Partners is retained by a mix of publicly listed companies, substantial

privately held companies, and state-owned enterprises.

The individuals responsible for preparing this report are Greg Anderson B.Com, M.Com (Hons), Ph.D,

Jonathan Burke B.Com (Hons), Marcus Henderson CA, BAppSc (Hons), BCom and Fletcher Edmond

BSc. Each individual has a wealth of experience in providing independent corporate finance advice to

a wide range of clients.

Disclaimer and Restrictions on the Scope of our Work

In preparing this report, Northington Partners has relied on publicly available information, unless

stated otherwise. Northington Partners has not performed anything in the nature of an audit of that

information, and does not express any opinion on the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of the

information provided to us and upon which we have relied.

Northington Partners has used the provided information on the basis that it is true and accurate in

material respects and not misleading by reason of omission or otherwise. Accordingly, neither

Northington Partners nor its Directors, employees or agents, accept any responsibility or liability for

any such information being inaccurate, incomplete, unreliable or not soundly based or for any errors

in the analysis, statements and opinions provided in this report resulting directly or indirectly from any

such circumstances or from any assumptions upon which this report is based proving unjustified.

We reserve the right, but will be under no obligation, to review or amend our report if any additional

information which was in existence on the date of this report was not brought to our attention, or

subsequently comes to light.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, Northington Partners, its affiliates, directors, officers and

employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result ofreliance being placed on any

of the information contained in this report.

Review of FY23 Performance |
FY23 Highlights

Record Earnings and

Return on Capital

Fonterra reported a record full year normalised EBIT of $1,881 million, a material 90% increase on last year’s result of $991 million. Favourable

price relativities between Reference and Non-Reference Products continued in the second half of the financial year, helping to drive a 12.4%

return on capital (6.8% in FY22) and a significant improvement in normalised earnings per share (80 cents compared to 35 cents last year).

Ingredients Channel

Delivers a Significant

Increase in Earnings

Ingredients was again the largest contributor to EBIT at $1,577 million (+$764 million, +94%), with significantly improved earnings from

Foodservice as well (EBIT of $334 million (+$217 million, +185%)). The Consumer channel reported an EBIT of -$156 million (compared to EBIT

of $16 million in FY22). The Ingredients result reflects a 12% increase in revenue on an 8% increase in volume and an improved gross margin of

15.2% (10.8% in FY22). The loss in the Consumer channel is a result of impairments to the New ZealandConsumer business and Asia brands of

$121 million and $101 million, respectively, as well as increases in operating expenses due to inflation.

Milk Price Negatively

Impacted by Demand

Fonterra declared a final 2022/2023 Farmgate Milk Price (FGMP) of $8.22 per kgMS. A total dividend for the year of 50 cents per share and the

50 cents per share capital return from the Soprole divestment gave an effective total cash return of $9.22 per share backed kgMS. The

reductions in FGMP throughout the 2022/2023 season were the result of weak international demand for whole milk powder (particularly in

China), with prices dropping ~16% on average compared to the 2021/2022 season. This weaker international demand has continued in to the

2023/2024 season.

Resource Allocation

Framework and Targets

Introduced

Fonterra has introduced a Resource Allocation Framework to provide a clear structure for operational priorities, the allocation of milk into

product divisions and the allocation of operating cashflows to debt, new investment opportunities and distributions. Fonterra’s overall objective

is to maximise the risk-adjusted returns for shareholders. To further improve transparency and accountability, targets have also been set for the

following key metrics - cash operating expenses per kgMS and gross profit from core operations per kgMS. The combined benefits from

achieving the stated targets are expected to remove $1.0 billion from Fonterra’s cost base by 2030.

Well Positioned for Capital

Investment

Fonterra’s net debt has significantly reduced from $5.3 billion to $3.2 billion. Key drivers included higher earnings, the unwinding of excess

inventory from FY22 year end and the application of proceeds from the Soprole divestment. The much lower leverage position at the end of

FY23 (Debt/EBITDA of 1.3x vs 3.2x in FY22) means that Fonterra is currently well positioned to meet its capital expenditure requirements and

make long-term sustainability investments.

FY24 Earnings Outlook

The Fonterra Board has forecast earnings of 45 – 60 cents per share for FY24. The lower outlook largely reflects expectations of a reduction in

the favourable price relativities that were maintained throughout FY23, partially offset by forecast improvements in Consumer and Foodservice

margins.

Strong Performance

Against Current Long

Term Aspirations

Fonterra’s performance in FY23 in relation to earnings, return on capital and debt reduction was well ahead of the Long Term Aspiration targets

announced in 2021. The normalised EPS of 80 cents per share delivered in FY23 was a particular standout, well above the 60 cents midpoint

target set for FY30. However, as noted above, the strong performance in FY23 was driven by very favourable price relativities which are expected

to moderate over the FY24 year.

1

2

4

3

5

6

7

3

Review of FY23 Performance |
Table of Contents

SectionPage

Section 1FY23 Results Review5

Financial Performance6

Return on Capital9

Financial Position13

Outlook15

Section 2Revisiting Fonterra’s Long TermAspirations16

Long Term Strategy17

Drivers of Earnings19

Capital Structure22

Shareholder Returns24

Appendix – SupportingInformation27

4

Section 1:
FY23 Results Review

FONTERRA

CO-OPERATIVE

COUNCIL

Review of FY23 Performance |
Fonterra reported a record full year normalised EBIT of $1,881 million, a 90% increase on last year’s result.

Total Group Financial Performance

NZ$ Million (Normalised Basis)FY22FY23% Change

Sales Volume (‘000 MT)3,9243,9731%

Total Revenue 23,42526,04611%

Cost of Goods Sold(20,085)(21,447)7%

Gross Profit3,3404,59938%

Gross Margin14.3%17.7%n/a

Operating Expenses(2,397)(2,787)16%

Other Items486944%

Normalised EBIT9911,88190%

Normalised EBIT Margin4.2%7.2%n/a

Normalisations(15)337n/a

Reported EBIT9762,218127%

Reported Net Profit After Tax5831,577170%

Reported Earnings Per Share$0.36$0.95164%

Normalised Earnings Per Share$0.35$0.80129%

Dividend per Share$0.20$0.50150%

Fonterra delivered a record earnings result for FY23, with Normalised EBIT increasing by 90% to

$1.88 billion. Including the gain on sale for the Soprole business, Reported EBIT increased 127%

to $2.22 billion.

Despite limited growth in sales volume (+1%), the continued shift to higher value Non-Reference

Products (particularly cheese and proteins) resulted in an 11% increase in Revenue and a 38%

increase in Gross Profit. Total Group Gross Profit increased $1.3 billion relative to the prior year,

largely due to favourable pricing and margins in the Group’s Ingredients and Foodservice

channels. Gross margins improved materially year-on-year from 14.3% to 17.7%.

Total Group normalised operating expenses were $2.8 billion in FY23, also representing a

significant increase on last financial year. Key elements of this increase included $204 million of

impairments (mainly through the Consumer channel), $103 million for additional employee

benefits and higher professional fees from the implementation of the new Flexible Shareholding

capital structure and divestments.

Despite the increase in operating expenses, Normalised Earnings before Interest and Tax (EBIT)

increased ~90% to $1,881 million. This is equivalent to a Normalised EBIT margin of 7.2% (4.2%

in FY22) and is the highest Normalised EBIT margin since the FY16 result (7.9%, $1,358 million).

Reported EBIT was a record $2,218 million, a 127% increase on the FY22 result.

The combination of key factors outlined above resulted in a record year for the Group with

normalised EPS of 80 cents per share compared to opening guidance of 30 - 45 cents per share.

This result is also at the top end of the 65 cents per share to 80 cents per share guidance

provided in early August.

This outcome allowed the Group to declare a final dividend of 40 cents per share, bringing the

total FY23 dividend to 50 cents per share, equivalent to a 63% payout (slightly above the top of

target payout range of 40% to 60%).

Reported Gross Profit and Gross Margin

6

3,160

3,137

3,340

4,599

15.1%

14.9%

14.3%

17.7%

FY20FY21FY22FY23

Gross Profit (NZ$m)Gross Margin (%)

Review of FY23 Performance |
Financial Performance by Channel

The Ingredients channel had a very strong year in FY23, with an increase in EBIT of $764 million

representing a 94% improvement over the previous year. The main driver of this performance

was the sustained price differential between Non-Reference Products (particularly cheese and

protein portfolios) and Reference Products (particularly WMP and butter) throughout the year.

As summarised in the adjacent chart, FY23 price relativities began at the FY22 peak and

performed above historic levels throughout the year. Management estimates that the earnings

benefit from the pricing differential was mostly delivered via protein and cheese products and

represented close to 40 cents of the 80 cents normalised EPS.

The FY23 result for the Ingredients channel benefited from higher sales volumes due to the sell

down of additional inventory held at FY22 year-end. This sell down was supported by the securing

of new contracts and tenders in both the Asia Pacific and Africa regions. Additionally, the

business was able to increase sales volumes of cream products to European customers on the

back of more competitive pricing. Greater China sales volumes and demand were negatively

impacted by local milk processors converting excess liquid milk into WMP. This is expected to be

a short-term issue, as consumption of dairy continues to increase in China following the lift of

COVID-19 related restrictions.

2,500

5,000

7,500

Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23

USD / MT

Cheddar (Non-Reference Product)Whole Mik Powder (Reference Product)

Source: Global Dairy Trade, adjusted forward 3 months to reflect shipment delay.

WMP and Cheddar used as proxies for Reference & Non-Reference Products.

FY23

Price Relativities

FY22

Foodservice EBIT grew to $334 million in FY23 (vs. $117 million in FY22), with particularly strong

performance following in-market price increases in the first quarter, supported by increased out-

of -home dining in Australia and the removal of COVID-19 restrictions in China and Southeast

Asia.

The Consumer channel reported a loss of $156 million at the EBIT level in FY23, compared to a

profit of $16 million in FY22. This result includes $222 million of impairments in the New

Zealand consumer business and Asia brands. The impairments for the New Zealand consumer

business reflect higher input costs which began to flow through during the second half of the

prior year, and which were not fully offset by increases in sales prices. The impairments for the

Asia brands are largely due to a reduction in forecast sales growth as well as changes to discount

rates and exchange rates.

The EBIT contribution from Discontinued Operations in FY23 was $463 million, representing

earnings from Soprole, Hangu China Farm and DPA Brazil. Note that while the EBIT contribution

from Soprole increased from $78 million to $431 million, approximately $349 million of that

increase related to the gain on sale. Both Hangu China Farm and DPA Brazil delivered relatively

immaterial contribution at the EBIT level, with DPA Brazil the only asset still owned and held for

sale at the end of FY23.

Ingredients was again the largest contributor to EBIT at $1,577 million (+$764 million, +94%), with significantly improved

earnings from Foodservice as well (EBIT of $334 million (+$217 million, +185%).

Reported EBIT Bridge FY22 – FY23 (NZ$ million)

7

976

764

217

(172)

433

2,218

FY22 Reported

EBIT

IngredientsFoodserviceConsumerDiscontinued OpsFY23 Reported

EBIT

Review of FY23 Performance |
Fonterra announced changes to its segment reporting structure in October 2022. The FY23

annual results were reported for the first time using the following updated structure:

Consistent with Fonterra’s focus on New Zealand milk collection, supply chain operations and

manufacturing efficiency, Core Operations is a new reportable segment that represents the

collecting, processing and delivery of product to customer facing markets, as well as Farm

Source

TM

retail stores and several Group functions. Previously, Core Operations were allocated

between geographic segments based on activity and share of product sold.

Global Markets and Greater China represent all Ingredients, Foodservice and Consumer channels

within their respective geographic locations, but now show the in-market value after purchasing

from Core Operations at internal transfer prices.

The Global Markets business covers all sales regions outside of the Greater China region, which

includes Africa, Middle East, Europe, North Asia, Americas, New Zealand, Australia, Pacific

Islands, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.

The performance of Core Operations reflects the efficiency of NZ milk collection, manufacturing,

supply chain operations and ability to optimise product mix. The performance of the regional

business units reflects the in-market value added after purchasing the products from Core

Operations.

Reported EBIT from Core Operations increased from $155 million in FY22 to $806 million in

FY23, with a significant increase of the EBIT margin from 0.9% to 4.2%. The key driver of this

dramatic increase again reflects the benefit of price relativities.

Fonterra introduced major changes to its segment reporting structure in FY23, with the changes designed to better align reporting with

the current focus on New Zealand milk.

The improvement in earnings for Global Markets was attributed to increases to in-market pricing (to reflect

higher cost of goods), which increased gross margin by 19%. Volume also increased by 10%. Some of

these gains were offset by an increase in operating expenses, mainly due to $176 million of impairments

recognised in the period.

Reported EBIT in Greater China increased by 7%, or $25 million to $370 million. The reasonable growth

achieved in the Ingredients and Foodservice businesses following the lifting of COVID restrictions in the

second half of the financial year was partially offset by $46 million of impairments of the Group’s Asia

consumer brands.

Financial Performance by Segment

FY22 Reporting SegmentsFY23 Reporting Segments

Asia Pacific

Global Markets

Core Operations

AMENA

Greater ChinaGreater China

155

446

345

806

579

370

Core OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater China

FY22FY23

Reported EBIT by Segment (NZ$ million)

8

Review of FY23 Performance |
Our review of Fonterra’s financial performance since inception (published in November 2018)

noted that the average return on capital employed (“

ROCE”) was approximately 6.0%, below the

assessed benchmark range of 6.9% - 7.7%. The chart below summarises ROCE since FY19 and

shows the dramatic improvement recorded in FY23.

These results are based on Fonterra’s approach to calculating ROCE; it reflects normalised EBIT

and is based on the book value of equity.Normalised EBIT excludes the $349 million related to

the gain on sale from Soprole, as well as a $12 million loss related to the disposal of Hangu

China Farm. FY23 impairments totaling $252 million, mainly recognised in the Group’s

Consumer channel, are however included in the calculation of normalised EBIT. Based on

reported earnings, we estimate the actual ROCE for FY23 at 14.7%.

The level of capital employed has not changed significantly over the last five years, and the

improved outcome in FY23 therefore reflects the increase in normalised EBIT. As discussed

previously, the improved earnings in FY23 is in turn attributed to the favourable price relativity

between Reference and Non-Reference Product prices. To the extent that that relativity is

expected to return to historical averages, the near-term ROCE is also likely to reduce.

Return on Capital

Historical Return on Capital (Based on Fonterra Estimates)

ROCE = (Group Normalised EBIT + finance income on long term advances) x (1 – notional tax rate)

Explanation

Return on Capital (ROC) or Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is a measure of how well

capital has been invested. As shown below, this is assessed by looking at the post-tax

return from the assets as a proportion of their book value.

Average Capital Employed (Seasonally-adjusted)

Fonterra provided a breakdown of return on capital by channel for the first time in FY23, along

with the comparable data for FY22. In line with the earnings improvements previously discussed,

the ROCE for both the Ingredients and Foodservice channels were materially higher in FY23. The

relative year-on-year improvement was higher for Ingredients due to the larger impact of the price

relativities in this channel.

ROCE calculations reflect the impact of the impairments taken in FY23 – that is, the channel

earnings used in the calculation have not been normalised for the impairments. While the

reported ROCE for the Consumer channel is clearly well below an acceptable target, the outcome

in FY23 was particularly affected by the significant impairment charge of $222 million.

We welcome the on-going provision of the return on capital information by channel. This level of

detail was not available in 2018 when we completed the performance review but will be an

important input when assessing capital allocation decisions in the future.

Increased earnings in FY23 has driven a significant improvement in return on capital employed, increasing from an average of 6.4% over the

previous four years to 12.4% in FY23.

9.0%

5.5%

(0.4%)

16.4%

15.7%

(4.6%)

IngredientsFoodserviceConsumer

FY22FY23

Historical Return on Capital by Channel (Based on Fonterra Estimates)

9

752

805

812

837

1,587

13,419

12,313

12,281

12,356

12,774

5.6%

6.6%

6.6%

6.8%

12.4%

FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Group Normalised EBIT Average Capital Employed Return on Capital

1

1.

Plus finance income on long term advances less notional tax charge

Review of FY23 Performance |
$9.30

($0.01)

($1.92)

$0.98

($0.13)

$8.22

FY22 FGMPVolumePricingForeign ExchangeCash CostsFY23 FGMP

Fonterra declared a final Farmgate Milk Price of $8.22 per kgMS for the 2022/2023 season, a

meaningful decrease from the $9.30 in the prior year. The reductions have been largely

attributed to the negative impact of weak international demand for whole milk powder

(particularly in China). The impact of reduced demand was mainly reflected in pricing rather than

volume, with WMP pricing an average of ~16% lower than last year. As summarised in the chart

below, reduced pricing had a negative impact of $1.92 per kgMS, partly offset by favourable

foreign exchange movement resulting from on-going weakness in the New Zealand dollar.

At the time of the results announcement, Fonterra indicated continuing weakness in

international demand from key importing regions but that conditions were expected to improve

from early 2024. The most recent GDT auctions have confirmed an improvement in the market

demand and have led to a 50 cent upgrade to the forecast FY24 FGMP, now at $6.50 - $8.00

per kgMS with a mid-point of $7.25 per kgMS

1

. Notwithstanding the improvement, the mid-point

of $7.25 per kgMS remains below Dairy NZ’s estimated national breakeven milk price of $7.78

per kgMS, placing significant pressure on many farmers.

Fonterra declared a final 2022/2023 Farmgate Milk Price of $8.22 per kgMS.

Final Milk Price Negatively Impacted by WMP Demand

Net $0.95 reduction in Revenue

Normalised Earnings Per Share and Payout Ratio ($ per kgMS)

2022/2023 Farmgate Milk Price Guidance Range

8.22

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

$ per kgMS

Guidance RangeGuidance - MidpointActual FGMP

The graph below shows that the milk price guidance for FY23 issued to farmers in May 2022 was

much higher than the final declared price of $8.22. Frequent downgrades during the season

highlighted the difficulty and complexity of the Group’s milk price forecasts.

We therefore understand the need to maintain a reasonably wide range between the high and low

guidance prices for the FY24 FGMP (currently $1.50 kgMS). We note that in recent years prior to

FY23, much of the uncertainty and subsequent changes to milk price midpoints were favourable

uplifts, peaking at the final price of $9.30 for the 2021/2022 season. Given that this pattern

effectively happened in reverse during FY23, farmers should exercise caution and apply

contingencies to any milk price guidance and consider the flow on impact to on-farm financing

decisions for the upcoming season.

10

1

As at 10 October 2023

Review of FY23 Performance |
$0.19

$0.14

$0.15

$0.30

$0.05

$0.20

$0.20

$0.50

$0.24

$0.34

$0.35

$0.80

45%

57%

59%

63%

FY20FY21FY22FY23

Normalised Retentions Per ShareDividend Per SharePayout Ratio

Fonterra announced a final dividend of 40 cents per share for FY23, bringing the total dividend

for the year to 50 cents per share. This is a meaningful increase on the total dividend paid in

FY22 of 20 cents per share.

Fonterra’s dividend policy is to pay 40% to 60% of reported net profit after tax that is attributable

to Co-operative equity holders (excluding abnormal gains such as the $349 million gain realised

from the sale of Soprole). The adjusted NPAT for the basis of the dividend calculation was $0.79

per share, meaning the 50 cents per share dividend corresponds to a 63% payout ratio. The

decision to distribute slightly above the upper end of the guidance range was justified by a

strengthened balance sheet and strong leverage metrics relative to targeted levels.

Importantly, proceeds from the completed sale of Soprole allowed the Group to also declare a

one-off tax-free capital return of $804 million, or 50 cents per share. The potential capital return

had been signaled by the Co-op at the start of the divestment process and helped to bolster the

lower FGMP in FY23.

Shareholders have benefitted from strong dividends and a capital return during FY23. The total payout was $8.72 for the year. This

is likely to reduce in the upcoming financial year with expectations of a reduced milk price and reduced earnings / dividends.

The chart below summarises the total payout per share since FY20 (see page 35 for further

details). With a final 2022/2023 Farmgate milk price of $8.22 and the 50 cent total dividend,

total payout reached $8.72 per share backed kgMS in FY23. Even including the capital return, the

total cash return of $9.22 in FY23 was below the FGMP ($9.30) and total payout ($9.50) in the

prior year

1

. While relatively high in historical terms, the lower FY23 payout was also exacerbated

by a dramatic increase in on-farm costs during the year.

Given the sale of Soprole and the lower earnings guidance issued for FY24, shareholders are

likely to receive dividends which are more in line with prior years (an implied 18 – 36 cents per

share under the current EPS guidance range). Combined with the expectation of a lower milk price

for the current season, total payout is likely to continue trending downwards from its peak in

FY22.

Normalised Earnings Per Share and Payout Ratio

Total Payout

1

$7.14

$7.54

$9.30

$8.22

$0.05

$0.20

$0.20

$0.50

$7.19

$7.74

$9.50

$8.72

FY20FY21FY22FY23

Farmgate Milk PriceDividend per Share

Excludes 50c

capital return

Total Payout and Payout Ratio

11

1. Per share backed kgMS

Review of FY23 Performance |
Fonterra has announced new initiatives that guide allocation of capital and resources to help maximise risk-adjusted returns for

shareholders.

Resource Allocation Framework and Efficiency Targets Introduced

Fonterra has introduced the Resource Allocation Framework summarised below to provide (a) a clear structure for operational priorities; (b) the allocation of milk into product divisions; and (c) the allocation

of operating cashflows to debt, new investment opportunities and distributions. Fonterra’s overall objective is to maximise the risk-adjusted returns for shareholders through implementation of this

framework in key budgeting and investment decisions.

Target metrics for cash operating expenses per kgMS and gross profit from core operations per kgMS have also been set and were announced at year-end. Both metrics are designed to monitor the cost base

having regard to changing milk volumes and adjustments for inflation, with the aim of ensuring that underlying efficiency gains/losses are more transparent. The combined benefits from achieving the stated

targets in these areas are expected to remove $1.0 billion from Fonterra’s cost base by 2030 via a collection of measures including better procurement and targeted investment in new systems and

automation. Further discussion of these metrics is set out on page 20.

We think that publicly announcing these frameworks should improve transparency and accountability to shareholders and is a progressive step in terms of investment and operational discipline. These

initiatives now need to be implemented and managed effectively and we plan to report on the new metrics in detail in future.

Collect and Process Milk

Sustaining Capital

Ingredients

Consumer

Preliminary Cash Flow from Core Operations

Foodservice

Debt

Capital Returns

Preliminary Cash Flow

Dividends

Growth Capital

Share Buybacks

Innovation

Total Shareholder Returns

Farm Profitability

Reported Cashflow

Strong Balance Sheet

Sustain safe, productive operations

A primary allocation of capital is used to deliver a safe, sustainable capacity of processing assets, while

maintaining a surplus margin for plant capacity

Competition for milk

We allocate milk to the products and channels where we believe it will earn the highest risk-adjusted returns.

Competition for cash

We allocate cash to our balance sheet, shareholders and businesses where we believe it will earn the highest

risk-adjusted returns.

Outcome for the Shareholder

Management is aligned to the delivery of value to our stakeholders through targets and incentives.

Fonterra Resource Allocation Framework

12

Review of FY23 Performance |
Net debt has decreased by $2.1 billion due to record FY23 earnings, the unwinding of excess inventory from FY22 year end and the

application of proceeds from the Soprole divestment.

Key contributors to the changes in net debt over the FY23 period are summarised below. Healthy

operating cash flows from record earnings and positive working capital movements (including the

unwinding of excess inventory from FY22 year-end) have helped to significantly reduce net debt by

$2,132 million during the year. This reduction was also supported by the net sale proceeds from

the Soprole divestment (noting that the capital return which was made after balance date has

been incorporated into the net figures shown in the chart).

The net impact of dividends during the FY23 year includes the FY22 final dividend and the FY23

interim dividend (totaling $403 million), as well as the $804 million capital return.

Further analysis of the ending net debt position and the corresponding key metrics is set out on

page 22.

Financial Position at FY23 Year-End

NZ$ MillionFY22FY23% Change

Assets

Cash and Cash Equivalents2881,822533%

Receivables2,4822,473(0%)

Inventories5,1484,346(16%)

Other Current Assets 874854(2%)

PP&E6,4656,343(2%)

Intangible Assets2,1531,824(15%)

Other Non-Current Assets 1,371939(32%)

Total Assets18,78118,601(1%)

Liabilities

Payables2,4032,373(1%)

Owing to Suppliers2,1191,997(6%)

Current Borrowings356785121%

Capital Return Payable-804n/a

Other Current Liabilities1,6401,302(21%)

Non-Current Borrowings4,9003,156(36%)

Other Non-Current Liabilities457216(53%)

Total Liabilities11,87510,633(10%)

Net Assets6,9067,96815%

Equity Attributable to Co-op6,9337,90614%

Net Debt Bridge (NZ$ million)

$5,339m

($2,311m)

($871m)

($846m)

$714m

$1,207m

($25m)

$3,207m

FY22

Net Debt

Cash from

Operations

Change in Net

Working

Capital

Divestments

& Asset Sales

Capital

Expenditure

& Other

Dividends &

Capital

Return

Other

Financing

Cash Flow

FY23

Net Debt

Net Assets increased to $7,968 million at the end of FY23, representing an increase of $1,062

million (+15%) from the previous year.

The Group’s cash and cash equivalents increased to $1,822 million following the sale of Soprole

and strong operating cash flow during FY23. However, we note that the capital return of $804

million was yet to be paid as at the balance date.

The abnormally high inventory balance of $5,148 million at the end of FY22 has reduced to

$4,346 million as at 31 July 2023. This reflects two factors: the excess inventories on hand at

the end of FY22 have been sold; and in addition to lower volumes of inventory held at FY23 year

end, reductions to the milk price decrease the value of inventory held on a per metric tonne

basis.

13

Review of FY23 Performance |
211

239

202

243

52

82

133

141

15

26

78

85

104

119

121

152

37

79

53

47

106

63

30

79

525

608

617

747

FY20FY21FY22FY23

Sustaining Capital for NZ Operations

Regulatory Requirements including Wastewater

Decarbonisation

Sustaining Capital for Other Operations

Capital investment for the last four years has been broken down into three broad categories:

1.Sustaining capital expenditure;

2.Growth capital expenditure; and

3.Other capital investment.

Most of the expenditure in FY23 was allocated to sustaining capital expenditure ($621 million)

which generally reflects the maintenance and improvement of existing assets. Fonterra has

further broken down this category into four sub-components categories, as shown in the chart

below.

Key FY23 projects within this category included the installation of a biomass boiler to remove the

use of coal at the Group’s Waitoa processing site, introduction of improved refrigerant technology

at the Whareroa site and a utilities upgrade at the Te Rapa site. Fonterra also continued with its

annual replacement programmes for trucks, trailers and milk vats which will help to achieve

future operating efficiency targets.

Also included within the sustaining capital expenditure for FY23 is $85 million of decarbonisation

spending, to support Fonterra’s aim of improving the sustainable collection and processing of milk

across the Group’s network of assets. Investment in decarbonisation has increased significantly

in the past two financial years and will continue in the medium to long term.

Total capital invested during FY23 was $747 million, representing an increase of $130 million compared to the prior year.

The Group invested $47 million during FY23 in capital projects to drive future growth. This included

an upgrade to the probiotic’s capacity in Palmerston North and the expansion of a cheese

processing capacity in Malaysia which supports global foodservice customers. The $79 million of

other investments were mainly for right-of -use assets and equity investments.

As already mentioned, the Group made a number of divestments during the year in line with its

strategy to increase focus on Core Operations (i.e. New Zealand milk collection and processing).

Fonterra completed the divestment of Soprole in March 2023, fully exited the last China Farms

asset in April 2023 and continued to progress the sale process of DPA Brazil.

The net gain / (loss) on sale for FY23 was $337 million on a pre-tax basis ($248 million post-tax),

with the $349 million Soprole gain marginally offset by a $12 million loss on sale of the Hangu

China Farm asset.

As at balance date, the agreed sale of DPA Brazil to French dairy company Lactalis continues to

progress through various conditions and regulatory approval processes. Expectations are that the

sale process will be completed by the end of FY24, with proceeds from Fonterra’s 51% share of the

business used to repay debt held directly by DPA Brazil.

Capital Expenditure & Divestments

FY23FY22

Sale PriceGain/(Loss)Sale PriceGain/(Loss)

Soprole

1,066349

China Farms (Hangu)

18(12)

Global Dairy Trade2642

Total

1,0843372642

Historical Capital Invested by Type (NZ$ million)

Summary of Recent Divestments (NZ$ million)

Note: Gain / (Loss) on Sale is on a pre-tax basis

Other Capital Invested

Growth Capital Expenditure

382

446

534

621

14

Review of FY23 Performance |
Reflecting changing market conditions, the Group has issued guidance of normalised EPS from

continuing operations of 45 cents to 60 cents for FY24. While obviously a reduction on the record

result achieved in FY23, the FY24 guidance is still slightly higher than the top end of the target range

set out in the Long-Term Aspirations announced in 2021 (FY24 target earnings per share range of 45

cents to 55 cents).

Management has also advised that the EPS guidance for FY24 incorporates an allowance for a 15c

contribution from favourable price relativities. The outlook for price relativities for the first half of

FY24 is shown in the graph below. While the favourable conditions enjoyed in FY23 were maintained

in the first three months of the current year, recent GDT auctions indicate the differential will reduce

in the near term. This is generally consistent with the expectation of reverting to a longer-term

average throughout FY24, with long term relativities expected to deliver ~5 cents of earnings per

share. As discussed further in Section 2, the external factors driving the price relativities will continue

to be a key determinant of Fonterra’s performance (particularly for the Ingredients channel).

Fonterra’s EPS guidance indicates that FY24 earnings are likely be more in line with historical averages and well below the record

achieved in FY23.

FY24 Outlook

Fonterra continues to benefit from a dominant share of NZ milk supply and has increased its share of

Australian milk supply over the past few years. However, there are some signs of medium and longer

terms risks to the Group’s supply base emerging including farm conversions to other land uses and

increased competitor activity. In recent years, the shift to value-added products and productivity

gains have helped to offset reductions in New Zealand milk collections, but we believe Fonterra

remains at risk that the trend of reduced collections will continue. The impact of the change to the

minimum required shareholding which was designed to help with farmer retentions is not yet verified.

The medium to longer term outlook for Australian business remains uncertain with some question

marks remaining in relation to the Group’s decision to hold the Australian business (announced

September 2022). We expect Fonterra will continue to focus on operational efficiency and strict

resource allocation within the Australian business throughout FY24. We also think a significant

turnaround in the Australian business in the short term is unlikely and that asset performance should

be scrutinised closely over the next couple of years.

Although the asset base in Greater China is now much smaller in comparison to six or seven years

ago, operational exposure remains high with 28% of external volume sold through Greater China in

FY23 (based on continuing operations). Improvements to demand and pricing are expected in the

short term with the removal of WMP and SMP duties from 1 January 2024 onwards. Fonterra

continues to monitor the competitive dynamic relating to China domestic production and will be

constantly reviewing the optimal product production to meet demand. However, we note that

Fonterra ultimately has limited control over key drivers of supply and demand in China.

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

USD / MT

Cheddar (Non-Reference Product)Whole Mik Powder (Reference Product)

Note: GDT prices are adjusted forward 3 months to reflect delay between GDT

contracts struck and the shipment date (at which the invoice and revenue is recognised)

FY24 H1FY23 H2

FY24 Year-to-Date Price Relativities

80.8%

80.0%

79.0%

79.1%

79.0%

18.3%

15.8%

15.4%

15.9%

16.7%

20192020202120222023

New Zealand Market ShareAustralia Market Share

Milk Collections Market Share (% of kgMS)

New Zealand market share and collections are for the period 1 June –31 May.

Australia market share and collections are for the period 1 August –31 July.

15

Section Two:
Revisiting Fonterra’s Long TermAspirations

FONTERRA

CO-OPERATIVE

COUNCIL

Review of FY23 Performance |
In this section we review Fonterra’s progress relative to the LTAs established in 2021 and the key factors that will contribute to its future

performance, including recent strategic initiatives as part of Fonterra’s focus on NZ milk and moving towards higher value products.

Introduction

As part of a significant reset of the business announced in 2019, Fonterra provided some key

business targets for the following 3-5 years. Those targets were subsequently updated and amended

in September 2021 with the publication of Long TermAspirations (“

LTAs” ) which extended out to

2030. The table below summarises Fonterra’s results to date relative to the LTA targets:

−While the FY22 results were ahead of target on most profitability measures, outcomes for capital

investment and debt levels were below target largely as a result ofincreased working capital.

−The FY23 performance was significantly ahead of all near-term (FY24) and longer-term (FY30)

earnings related LTA targets. As previously discussed, this outcome is largely attributable to

favourable price relativities between Reference and Non-Reference Products and a reduced cost

of milk driving Group gross margins up to 17.0% from 13.3% in FY22 (continuing operations).

−The FY23 debt-related LTAs were supported by a significant reduction in working capital and asset

sales, driving net debt down to $3.2 billion in FY23 relative to $5.3 billion in FY22 (see page 22

for further information).

While Fonterra has clearly surpassed the targets in FY23, much of the out-performance centred on

“abnormal” price relativities which are unlikely to be maintained at similar levels over the long

term. We analyse the impact of price relativities on FY23 performance and the potential impact on

future performance on page 19.

Current expectations are that current year earnings will be much lower than FY23. We note that

Fonterra has provided initial EPS guidance for FY24 of 45 – 60 cents per share. This level of

earnings is in line with the original LTA target of 45 –55 cents and implies EBIT around the $1.2

billion level (vs $1.9 billion in FY23).

Fonterra has also announced its intention to provide an update on long-term strategy and targets in

early CY24. We expect this to be in the form of both revisions to the existing metrics as well as the

introduction of new measures.

LTA MeasureForecast

FY22

Actual

FY22

Actual

FY23

Forecast

FY24

Forecast

FY27

Forecast

FY30

Principal Drivers of Performance Relative

to LTA

EBIT ($ million)875–9759911,8811,025–1,1251,150–1,2501,325–1,425

•Commodity prices / FGMP

•Price relativities

•Success of value-add strategy

•Cost efficiencies / margins

Earnings per Share

(cents)

25–40358045–5550–6055–65

Return on Capital6.5%–7.0%6.8%12.4%7%–8%7.5%–8.5%9%–10%

Capital Investment

($ million)

650617747980980980•Plant maintenance requirements

•Sustainability investment

•Growth capital investment

Debt to EBITDA2.4x3.2x1.3x<2.5x<2.5x<2.5x•Cash profitability

•Working capital management

•Net investment (capex less

divestment)

Gearing Ratio35%42%29%<35%<35%<35%

Dividends (cents)15–2020 5022–2730–3540–45•Profitability

•Dividend policy

Factors

largely out of

Fonterra’s

control

17

Review of FY23 Performance |
Focus on NZ Milk and Value-add

Fonterra is making good progress on its strategy to prioritise NZ Milk and shift greater volume into higher value Non-Reference Products

across the specialised Ingredients, Foodservice and Consumer channels.

Non-Current Asset Carrying Value by Geography (Portion of Total)

Fonterra’s strategic repositioning into NZ milk has seen some significant changes in its asset

portfolio and capital investment over the last few years. The review and subsequent sale of its

interests in China and the Americas has allowed greater focus on its NZ manufacturing sites and

sustainability initiatives. The chart below shows that approximately 61% of the asset base in FY19

(excluding working capital) was located in NZ, increasing to 76% in FY23 largely as a result of the

divestment program.

In order to better measure the earnings contribution and return on capital from the NZ milk strategy,

Fonterra has initiated reporting for a new Core Operations segment which represents the key

activities of collecting and processing milk into products for its customer facing operations. The

performance of Core Operations reflects the efficiency of Fonterra in milk collection, manufacturing

and supply chain as well as its ability to maximise the product mix, including between Reference

and Non-Reference Products. We assume the revised LTAs expected to be announced in early CY24

will be consistent with the new reporting structure.

Fonterra’s focus on shifting milk into value-add products is another of its key long-term strategic

priorities. The chart below illustrates that the business has made some progress in this respect over

the last five years, with the allocation of milk volumes into Non-Reference Products increasing from

27.3% in FY19 to 31.4% in FY23. Non-Reference Products focus on speciality ingredients targeting

health and wellness as well as products sold into the Foodservice and Consumer channels, including

branded products.

Given the scale and nature of the Fonterra business, we expect that on-going annual increases in the

proportion of Non-Reference Products will be relatively modest. Some guidance from the Company in

relation to realistic long-term targets would be useful as part of the LTA reset in CY24.

Reference and Non-Reference Product Volume - NZ Milk Solids Manufactured (million kgMS)

1,107

1,088

1,073

1,035

1,015

416

429

466

443

465

27.3%

28.3%

30.3%

30.0%

31.4%

FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Reference ProductsNon-Reference ProductsNon-Reference Percentage

60.3%

60.6%

60.9%

61.0%

71.1%

73.4%

72.7%

76.3%

6.6%

7.5%

8.2%

9.9%

11.3%

10.7%

11.4%

11.3%

14.7%

13.3%

10.0%

9.2%

8.8%

8.9%

9.3%

11.7%

7.8%

4.3%

4.2%

9.6%

9.7%

11.5%

8.2%

9.1%

11.4%

11.5%

11.2%

FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

New ZealandAustraliaChinaAmericasRest of World

18

Review of FY23 Performance |
Impact of Price Relativities

While prices for Non-Reference Products remain favourable relative to Reference Products, it is unlikely that the price differential will be

sustained. Consistent with Management, our analysis suggests that favourable price relativities in FY23 contributed over half of Fonterra’s

underlying EPS (>40 cents).

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

R² = 0.7976

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

1.11.151.21.251.31.351.41.45

Ingredients Segment Gross Margin

Non-Reference / Reference Product Price Relativities

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul

Cheddar Price Relativity to WMP Price as Proxy

for Price Relativities

FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Historic Price Relativities (Non-Reference / Reference Product Prices)

Relationship Between Price Relativities and the Ingredients Segment Gross Margin

Fonterra’s strong FY23 earnings performance is predominantly attributable to the high price

relativity between Non-Reference and Reference Products. The bottom left chart summarises the

price relativities by financial year using monthly GDT data for the prices of cheddar and WMP as a

proxy. This illustrates that the average price relativity in FY23 was materially higher than any other

recent period with an annual average of ~1.4x (FY16 and FY20 being the next highest at ~1.3x).

The start of FY24 has also indicated a continuation of this trend.

While it is difficult to reliably identify specific factors which drive the changes through time, the price

relativity must ultimately be underpinned by changing supply and demand dynamics between the

product categories. This implies a current demand imbalance for Non-Reference Products. Without

any evidence for a structural change in the market, we would expect that over the long-run, the

price relativity will revert to average levels as the current price signalling should see more supply of

Non-Reference Products.

As is the case with general commodity prices, Fonterra is effectively a ‘price-taker’ in relation to

price relativities. Year-to -year volatility in earnings will therefore continue to be exposed to the

underlying variability in this key driver of performance.

Based on the monthly GDT prices for Non-Reference and Reference Products averaged over financial

years, the chart below right shows a strong relationship between the relative prices and the gross

margins generated by the Ingredients segment. Eight years of monthly pricing data suggests that the

price relativities have averaged 1.27x, consistent with the Ingredients segment delivering gross

margins of ~10.4%. Our analysis further suggests that FY23 excess or “abnormal” price relativities

were >$830 million (the gross margin difference of an average year at 10.4% and FY23 actual

Ingredients gross margins of 15.2%), equivalent to approximately 40 cents per share. This is consistent

with an estimate provided by Management and explains the majority of Fonterra’s financial

outperformance in FY23 relative to recent financial years.

If the price relativities revert to the historic mean, we expect that the gross margin achieved by the

Ingredients channel will reduce towards 10% in the long-run (absent periodic volatility and Fonterra’s

other cost reduction initiatives but before any further improvement in the relative volume split between

Reference and Non-Reference Products). However, on the evidence of FY24 pricing year to date for

Non-Reference Products, we would suggest that Fonterra could outperform relative to its current EPS

guidance of 45 – 60 cents per share.

19

Review of FY23 Performance |
Fonterra has introduced two new efficiency targets focusing on operating costs and gross profit per kgMS. The new targets are part of a

strategy to reduce its cost base by ~$1 billion by 2030 to drive enhanced margins and profitability.

Operational Efficiency Metrics

Cash Operating Expenses per kgMS (Inflation Adjusted)

Fonterra has announced a target of sustainably removing ~$1 billion of costs from its operational

and overhead cost base by 2030 and has introduced two new efficiency targets to support that goal.

1.Cash operating expenses per kgMS

Cash operating expenses represent the global overheads of the Group and include head office,

selling, marketing, storage and distribution costs. In order to objectively assess cost efficiencies

relative to varying milk volumes, the cash operating costs are assessed per kgMS of NZ milk

solids collected.

The total costs in FY23 were $2.1 billion (based on continuing operations) and are targeted to

reduce by ~$0.5 billion in nominal terms by 2030, largely offsetting expected cost inflation over

the period to FY30. Fonterra also stated a target to reduce “real” (excluding the impact of

inflation) cash operating costs by 4% per annum. Our analysis implies a reduction from

$1.39/kgMS in FY23 to ~$1.09/kgMS in FY30, assuming flat milk volumes over the full period.

This is illustrated in the chart below.

The information provided by Fonterra implies a >20% reduction in real operating expenses on a

per kgMS basis by FY30. Given Fonterra’s recent performance shows no efficiency gains were

generated in real terms between FY20 and FY23 (on the back of a 2% decrease in milk volumes),

it could be argued that this appears to be an ambitious target.

While Fonterra has not provided specific details of how it expects to deliver the reduction in cash

operating expenses, we assume that it will be mostly driven by reductions in head office

headcount, reduced consulting fees and efficiencies in advertising and distribution costs.

2.Gross profit from Core Operations per kgMS

This metric is aimed at improving efficiencies in Fonterra’s core NZ processing and

manufacturing cost base to improve gross profit margins on each kgMS. These costs largely

represent manufacturing costs, employee expenses and the other costs directly incurred in

getting milk products to the point of sale. The measure has intentionally excluded the cost of

milk (i.e. the FGMP) which is out of Fonterra’s control and is assessed on total kgMS sales

volumes across Core Operations (rather than milk collected).

The target is to maintain current gross profits from Core Operations at ~$9.20 per kgMS

between FY23 and FY30 (in real terms). We note that a metric based on gross profit per kgMS

not only incorporates cost savings, but also the impact of revenue per kgMS. This in turn will

depend on the future sales mix (Reference vs Non-Reference) and on-going revenue variability.

We understand why Fonterra may have adopted this metric instead of the potentially more

meaningful measure of manufacturing costs per kgMS. All else being equal, processing costs

per unit will be higher for higher value products and just focusing on costs will not fairly

measure any change in operating efficiency. However, in our view, an evaluation of the long-

term target is difficult because it includes factors over which Fonterra has limited influence.

Nonetheless, Fonterra has established its aim to drive annual operational costs savings of 2%

per year on a per kgMS basis to achieve total cost savings of ~$0.5 billion by FY30, relative to a

current manufacturing cost base of $4.0 billion (FY23). Similar to the cash operating expense

per kgMS target, this reduction in Fonterra’s core processing and manufacturing cost base will

offset expected cost inflation over the period to FY30. We estimate this represents an effective

reduction in the cost of milk collection, processing and manufacturing of ~$0.30 per kgMS by

FY30 relative to what they would be without the cost efficiencies.

Collectively, the $1 billion in cost efficiency target savings by FY30 would represent a 4.1% EBIT

margin improvement on FY23 sales and compares to long-run average historic Group EBIT margins

of 4% - 5%. Therefore, the efficiency improvements will be a meaningful contributor to future

earnings performance if they are successfully delivered.

20

1.39

1.36

1.34

1.39

1.16

1.18

1.26

1.09

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY30

Inflation-AdjustedActualTarget Improvement

~

Review of FY23 Performance |
211

239

202

243

52

82

133

141

78

85

104

119

121

152

37

79

53

47

106

63

30

79

525

608

617

747

950

1050

1125

1200

1150

1050

950

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30

Sustaining Capital for NZ OperationsRegulatory Requirements including WastewaterDecarbonisation

Sustaining Capital for Other OperationsGrowth Capital ExpenditureOther Capital Invested

Fonterra is forecasting approximately ~$800m of capex per annum to support its operations and sustainability targets, with ~$250 million

per annum for other, yet to be identified growth investments.

Long Term Capital Expenditure Outlook

Forecast

Following a period of relatively low investment over the last four years, Fonterra expects capex over

the period to FY30 will be materially higher. As summarised in the chart below, the average annual

spend between FY24 – FY30 exceeds $1 billion.

This reflects an estimated average investment of ~$800m per year across:

−A catch-up on maintenance for existing plant (referred to as “sustaining capital expenditure”) in

both Fonterra’s NZ operations as well as for “other” operations (primarily Australia); and

−Increased capital expenditure to meet Fonterra’s sustainability goals, made up of investment in

“decarbonisation” and “regulatory requirements”. This includes investment in key projects such

as coal to electric / biomass boilers, improved refrigerants and wastewater collection and

treatment – expected to be ~$1 billion over the next decade.

We also estimate an average of ~$300 million additional investment per year earmarked for

growth. While the nature of this growth capital expenditure has not been detailed, it includes

investment in plant upgrades, extensions and investment in new product lines such as the FY23

investment in string cheese processing capacity in Malaysia.

The projected level of capital expenditure represents a material increase in investment - ~$500

million more than average capital expenditure over the FY20 – FY22 period and at least twice the

current depreciation charge (~$480 million). However, we suggest that:

−The sustaining capital expenditure is necessary to meet Fonterra’s new asset health targets and

follows a period of relative under-investment. This capital expenditure is unlikely to contribute to

earnings growth but is fundamental to maintaining plant and meeting Fonterra’s customer

expectations;

−Similarly, the material increase in decarbonisation and regulatory capital expenditure (>$1 billion

over the next 4 years) is essential to meet Fonterra’s own sustainability targets as well as the

increased ESG demands of its customers. While it is hard to determine the earnings or premium

contribution from this investment, without it, Fonterra could lose the increasing number of

customers who are seeking sustainably-sourced milk; and

−Any investment in growth projects is likely to face significant scrutiny and will have to satisfy

Fonterra’s internal return requirements (9% - 10% on capital employed) which will contribute to

future earnings growth. Maintaining this investment discipline will clearly be important.

Forecast Capital Expenditure FY24 –FY30 (NZ$ million)

21

Review of FY23 Performance |
$6,641m

$1,339m

$2,731m

$2,839m

($7,466m)

($2,877m)

$3,207m

FY18

Net Debt

Change in Net

Working Capital

Capital

Expenditure

& Other

Dividends &

Other

Cash from

Operations

Divestments &

Asset Sales

FY23

Net Debt

Capital Structure

Asset divestments of ~$2.9 billion over the last five years have been the primary contributor to Fonterra more than halving its debt level

over the period, with cash from operations largely funding Fonterra’s working capital, capital expenditure and shareholder returns.

Net Debt (NZ$ million) and Gearing

3

(%)

6,641

6,001

5,238

4,325

5,339

3,207

50.1%49.5%

44.2%

38.5%

42.4%

28.8%

FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Adjusted Net DebtGearing

Debt / EBITDA

2

Fonterra has significantly reduced its net debt over the last five years, from >$6.6 billion in FY18

to $3.2 billion in FY23. The chart below demonstrates that this reduction has been driven by $2.9

billion of asset sales, with the cash flow generated from operations largely used to maintain

Fonterra’s investment in working capital and capital expenditure, as well as funding distributions

to shareholders.

The significant debt reduction along with continued growth in earnings has resulted in a material

improvement in Fonterra’s key credit ratios (bottom right charts) and the maintenance of

Fonterra’s high investment grade credit rating (A-).

After allowing for the final FY23 dividend of 40 cents paid in FY24 (~$640 million), we expect that

near term earnings performance should support Fonterra maintaining net debt below $4 billion

despite the expected increase in capital expenditure. We note that the mid-point of the 45 – 60 cent

EPS guidance for FY24 is equivalent to over $1.8 billion of EBITDA (a proxy for pre interest and tax

cash flows), an earnings level which underpins this view. Absent any significant growth investment

or acquisitions / divestments, this should see Fonterra preserve its LTA debt targets comfortably

below 2.5x debt / EBITDA and 35% gearing levels. We also expect that retaining the current high

investment grade rating will be a key priority to ensuring these target ratios are maintained.

FY18 –FY23 Free Cash Flows & Net Debt Bridge

1

(NZ$ million)

Result of increase in

working capital days

and milk price

Net reduction from

operating cash flows

less capex and

dividends of $557m

4.6x

4.3x

3.3x

2.7x

3.2x

1.3x

FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

22

1

Publicly available Fonterra information and Northington estimates

2

Calculated as Adjusted Net Debt / Normalised EBITDA

3

Calculated as Adjusted Net Debt / (Adjusted Net Debt + Equity (excluding cash flow hedge reserve))

Review of FY23 Performance |
Fonterra’s recent capital structure changes should support greater flexibility for farmers while maintaining Fonterra’s competit iveness for

milk supply and ensuring the financial sustainability of the Co-op.

Competition for NZ Milk and Shareholder Flexibility

Given that Fonterra’s revised strategy is designed to optimise the value of NZ milk volumes,

maintaining stability in its future milk volumes will be critical to future performance. Fonterra’s NZ

milk collections have been relatively stable over the last five years, an outcome that is consistent

with the overall market levelling off in terms of total milk production. This has resulted in Fonterra

maintaining ~79% market share since FY21. Long-term NZ milk volumes are also expected to

remain broadly consistent with the current level, but with the potential for further small declines.

The potential for increased competition, including from new market entrants, could however

impact on Fonterra’s milk volumes. Any further declines would generate excess processing

capacity and could have a negative impact on margins.

Recent changes to the minimum required shareholding (as outlined in the Appendix on page 39)

should support a more sustainable supply of milk, particularly in an environment of increased

competition from competitors who may not require farmers to invest capital to support supply (i.e.

buy shares). However, restricting share trading to meet Fonterra’s new minimum required

shareholding in the farmer-only market means that farmers now set the price for shares and this

has resulted in a larger disconnect between the Fonterra share price and the FSF unit price

(currently a ~25% difference)

1

. See page 37 for a recent history of relative prices between the

shares and units.

While the changes to the minimum required shareholding reduce the investment needed by

farmers to continue to supply Fonterra, the investment in FCG shares remains material even at the

minimum level. Fonterra must therefore ensure that the shares deliver long-term returns in line

with the level of required investment and the risk profile of the business. The shares must be seen

as a compelling, standalone investment opportunity rather than just a cost of remaining with the

Co-op.

Any future loss of milk supply volumes could limit future earnings growth, but we also expect that it

may provide some potential benefits, including:

−Reducing the requirement for Fonterra to collect milk from farmer suppliers that may be of

marginal profitability (i.e. sub-optimal from a cost or volume basis, for instance, due to location

and size); and

−Reduce the need to invest in processing capacity or provide the opportunity to shutdown

marginal processing capacity and avoid capacity duplication with other milk processors.

Taking all factors into consideration, we consider that Fonterra’s future collection volumes may

decline further (through either or both of declines in total market collections and increased

competition), but the net earnings impact may be limited and more than offset by Fonterra’s other

strategic objectives.

1,523

1,517

1,539

1,478

1,480

80.8%

80.0%

79.0%

79.1%

79.0%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Fonterra NZ Market Share

Milk Solids Collected (million kgMS)

Fonterra NZ Milk Collections and Market Share

23

1

As at 10 October 2023

Review of FY23 Performance |
Future Earnings and Dividends

We expect that future earnings and dividends could be more stable if Fonterra’s NZ milk and value-add strategy is successfully

implemented, but with long-run variability ultimately driven by the price relativities between Reference and Non-Reference Products.

Normalised Earnings Per Share and Payout Ratio

In line with the significant EPS variability, Fonterra’s recent dividends have been highly volatile. As

summarised in the chart below, dividends have varied between nil in FY19 and 50 cents in FY23

(excluding capital returns / special dividends). The current dividend policy was introduced in FY19,

and is based on a target of distributing between 40% – 60% of reported profit after tax but

excluding abnormal gains.

Increased EPS stability along with a relatively broad dividend payout range and increased financial

capacity to debt fund capital expenditure (from reduced debt levels) should support Fonterra’s

ability to provide greater dividend consistency to shareholders. Based on FY24 earnings guidance

and our assessment of normalised EPS, short-term dividends >25 cents per share should be

maintainable, albeit with annual variability through any abnormal price relativities. We note that

based on current pricing for FCG shares and FSF units, a dividend of 25 cents translates to a

current cash yield of over 11% and 8% respectively

2

.

Fonterra’s recent earnings profile has been relatively volatile, with much of this variability

attributable to not only price relativities, but also the underperformance in the businesses which

Fonterra has subsequently divested (e.g. China Farms and Beingmate).

With an increased focus on Core Operations utilising NZ milk, we would expect some reduction in

earnings variability. However, year-to -year earnings will continue to be significantly influenced by the

price relativities for Reference and Non-Reference Products. Other key factors contributing to

Fonterra’s future earnings performance will include:

−Fonterra’s success in achieving its target of delivering $1 billion in overhead and manufacturing

cost savings (equivalent to ~62 cents per share on a pre-tax basis

1

);

−The ability to source new growth investments expected to average ~$250 million per year and

those growth investments achieving their target returns. Based on the combined impact of

Fonterra’s target return on capital of 9% - 10% and the level of expected growth capital

investment, post-tax returns could increase by >$150 million by FY30 (>10cents per share);

−Execution of the value-add strategy from both increasing volumes of Non-Reference Products

and increasing brand equity (supporting higher margins in the Active Living, Foodservice and

Consumer channels); and

−Market factors including global demand for milk proteins and the performance of Fonterra’s

international operations, particularly Australia and Asia.

We believe the business should be capable of generating “stabilised” EPS >45 cents over the short-

term relative to FY24 guidance of 45 – 60 cents and a 5-year historic average of ~38 cents.

Variability around this level will depend on annual price relativities. Long-term performance will

largely hinge on Fonterra’s ability to deliver on its strategic targets (as noted earlier), which provide

the potential for Fonterra to more than double normalised EPS by FY30.

2

As of 10 October 2023

24

$0.09$0.09

$0.14

$0.16

$0.19

$0.14

$0.15

$0.30

$0.40$0.40

$0.10

-

$0.05

$0.20

$0.20

$0.50

$0.49$0.49

$0.24

$0.16

$0.24

$0.34

$0.35

$0.80

74%

85%

42%

0%

45%

57%

59%

63%

FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Normalised Retentions Per ShareDividend Per SharePayout Ratio

1

Based on the ~1.61 billion shares currently on issue

Review of FY23 Performance |
1.5%

6.9%

6.3%

6.0%

30.5%

69.2%

FY22FY23

Core Operations ROCEAustralia ROCEOther Global Markets ROCEGroup ROCE

Fonterra is seeking to improve returns on its invested capital by increasing earnings from a smaller, more focused capital base. We expect

that improved investment disciplines and greater contributions from Fonterra’s value-add strategy should increase returns to be more

commensurate with its risk profile.

Return on Capital

6.8%

7.1%

9.2%

6.5%

5.4%

4.9%

7.3%

6.2%

5.8%

Fonterra Post-Tax ROCEWACC - LowWACC - High

Since Inception

Last 10 Years

Last 5 Years

Northington View of ROCE

1

and WACC (%)

Estimated Segment Return on Capital

2

(%)

2

Northington analysis based on post-tax segment EBIT and geographic grouping of non-current assets as a proxy for

the proportion of total capital employed.

6.8%

12.4%

As noted on page 9, Fonterra’s return on capital has improved from 6.8% in FY22 to 12.4% in

FY23. There has been particularly strong improvement across the Ingredients and Foodservice

channels and continued weak performance in the Consumer channel. Over the longer term,

average returns have continued to trend upwards, with recent returns now typically exceeding the

return requirements expected for Fonterra’s relative risk profile (i.e. its risk-adjusted cost of

capital). These results are summarised in the chart below, showing an estimate of Fonterra’s

average ROCE for the last 5 years, the last 10 years and since inception in 2001. Actual returns

are compared to our assessment of Fonterra’s weighted average cost of capital (“

WACC”), which

varies over the period primarily due to interest rates.

While the increased reporting on returns by channel are a welcome new metric, it would be useful

to also understand Fonterra’s returns by segment, particularly at a NZ and Australia regional level,

to better assess performance and capital allocation decisions. Fonterra’s Australian operations

were recently reviewed as part of the broader strategy to focus on NZ milk and, while the decision

was made to retain the Australian business, improved transparency on its performance and the

decision to retain the business would be useful.

Based on Fonterra’s new disclosures, we have sought to independently assess ROCE performance on

a segment basis across Core Operations (NZ), Australia and other global markets. Our approach uses

the percentage of total fixed assets employed in each geographic region as a proxy for the relative

weighting of total capital employed to each segment.

The chart below summarises the results, demonstrating that the return on Core Operations has

increased significantly from 1.5% to 6.9% between FY22 and FY23, Australia has maintained returns

just over 6% while the remaining global operations have delivered a strong performance in both

years. While the global operations performance is not unexpected and largely reflects the small

amounts of capital investment in these regions (now primarily working capital following the sale of

China Farms and assets in the Americas), the Australian return on capital remains low relative to

Group performance and our estimate of the expected return requirements. Consequently, we would

expect to see improved performance in Australia to support Fonterra’s decision to retain the business

and invest further capital into this market.

1

Our calculation of Group ROCE differs to Fonterra. We use reported EBIT (as opposed to

Normalised EBIT) and the market value of equity (as opposed to book value) in our assessment of

capital employed.

25

Review of FY23 Performance |
Sustainability Targets

Fonterra is investing significantly into sustainability initiatives across the supply chain to showcase the NZ sustainable milk story. Along

with its financial strategy, this should support top and bottom-line growth in a market where customers also have high sustainability goals.

MetricActual

FY22

Actual

FY23

Scorecard

FY24

Targets

Climate Change

Scope 1 & 2 GHG emissions

relative to FY18 baseline levels

(11.2)%(14.1)%(15.6)%

•50% reduction in manufacturing emissions by

2030

•100% by 2050 (net zero)

Scope 3, on farm, GHG emissions

reduction target

Not Available•Targets expected by end of calendar year 2023

Coal usageNot Available•Stop using coal by 2037

Land & Water

Fonterra farm environment plan

adoption rate (NZ)

71%85%92%•100% by 2025

Fonterra water usageNot Available

•Reduce water usage at manufacturing sites by

30% by 2030

Water improvement plans in placeNot Available44%100%

Packaging & Waste

Packaging56%63%Not Available

•100% reusable, recyclable or compostable

packaging by 2025

Waste33% reduction since FY1946% reduction since FY19Not Available•Zero solid waste to landfill

Fonterra has established a strategy to be a leader in sustainability. It has also established a range of

targets in support of its goals, as summarised below. Fonterra has committed ~$1 billion of

investment to support its sustainability initiatives over the next decade. The sustainability strategy

aligns with Fonterra’s customers who have established emission reduction targets and are seeking

sustainably sourced milk. The number of customers seeking supply chain reduction commitments

has increased dramatically in recent years.

A significant portion of Fonterra’s customer emissions come from their supply chain, many of whom

now have ambitious sustainability goals for net zero emissions by 2050 (if not earlier). While Fonterra

can do its part through climate initiatives at the factory and indirectly via organisations that it uses in

production (Scope 1 and 2 emissions), more reductions are expected on-farm (Scope 3). Although

Fonterra has not yet established Scope 3 emission reduction targets, it is expected to do so before

the end of CY23. It is expected that Fonterra will work with its farmers to understand their emission

profile and ways to reduce or mitigate those emissions. In the short-term, this is likely to be through

improved animal health and wellbeing, nutrient optimisation and on-farm efficiencies. However, new

innovations and technological solutions will be required longer term – Fonterra has also committed

to investment that supports these goals, including through R&D.

We expect that Fonterra’s performance against its sustainability targets, including for Scope 3

emissions on-farm, will have a significant influence on Fonterra’s long-term financial performance.

While it is hard to determine what “sustainability premium” Fonterra and farmers may receive for the

investment required to support the sustainability goals, without the investment Fonterra may simply

lose customer and consumer confidence which could significantly undermine the business. The

carbon footprint of NZ’s on-farm milk supply is amongst the lowest in the world – maintaining this

edge will be essential to preserving Fonterra’s competitive advantage.

26

Appendix – Supporting Information

Review of FY23 Performance |
FY23 & FY24 Integrated Scorecard

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

FY21

Actual

FY22

Actual

FY23

Target

FY23

Actual

FY24

Scorecard

People

Serious harm98554

Gender diversity (Band 12+)36.3%37.6%38.8%39.5%40.0%

Culture Measuren/a-n/a79-

Nature

GHG emissions (Scope 1,2)(6.6%)(11.2%)(10.6%)(14.1%)(15.6%)

FEP adoption (New Zealand)53%71%84%85%92%

Water Improvement Plans in place--37.5%44.0%100.0%

Relationships

Share of New Zealand milk collected for the season to 31 May79.0%79.1%79.0%79.0%79.0%

Delivered in full, on time (DIFOT, ex-New Zealand)n/a51.6%n/a53.2%80.0%

Financial / Assets &

Infrastructure

Cash operating expenses per kgMS (real)n/a1.34n/a1.391.37

Gross profit from Core operations per kgMS (real)n/a8.83n/a9.218.52

Return on capital6.6%6.8%7.0% - 7.5%12.4%8.0% - 9.0%

Farmgate Milk Price ($)7.549.309.508.226.00 – 7.50

Alignment Rights

Total shareholder return (share price plus dividend)n/a

$2.73

($0.20)

n/a

$3.20

($1.00)

No Target

On-farm profitability ($ per hectare)n/a4,150n/a2,063No Target

28

Review of FY23 Performance |
Historical Financial Information

Sales Volume (‘000 MT)

3,965

4,303

4,313

4,180

4,123

4,152

4,069

4,102

3,924

3,973

FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Reported EBIT (NZ$ million)

Revenue (NZ$ million)

22,275

18,845

17,199

19,232

20,438

19,920

20,975

21,124

23,425

26,046

FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Normalised EBIT (NZ$ million)

503

974

1,358

1,155

902

812

879

952

991

1,881

FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Total Assets (NZ$ million)

503

942

1,431

1,120

269

(16)

1,147

959

976

2,218

FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Total Equity (NZ$ million)

1

1

Excluding minority interests

Note: Includes continued & discontinued operations where known.

6,492

6,473

6,859

7,140

6,219

5,757

6,692

6,863

6,933

7,906

FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

29

15,529

18,315

17,118

17,842

18,099

17,284

17,916

17,341

18,78118,601

FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Review of FY23 Performance |
Production & Operational Efficiency

557

641

586

559

605

673

479

562

626

707

FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Operating Expenses per MT

Cost of Goods Sold per MT

1

1

Impact of inventory movements on cost of goods sold have been spread pro-rata across Milk COGS and Other COGS.

1,472

1,608

1,408

1,361

1,486

1,530

1,460

1,286

1,473

1,620

3,525

2,010

1,737

2,459

2,705

2,543

2,906

3,000

3,557

3,515

4,997

3,618

3,146

3,820

4,191

4,073

4,366

4,286

5,030

5,134

FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Milk COGS per MTOther (non-milk) COGS per MT

30

Review of FY23 Performance |
EBIT Bridge by Channel and Segment

Reported EBIT Bridge by Channel

Reported EBIT Bridge by Segment

$976m

$575m

$79m

($3m)

$172m

$69m

($108m)

$17m

$69m

($61m)

$433m

$2,218m

ReportedIngredientsFoodserviceConsumerIngredientsFoodserviceConsumerIngredientsFoodserviceConsumerDiscontinued

Operations

Reported

FY22 EBITCore OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater ChinaFY23 EBIT

$976m

$575m

$172m

$17m

$79m

$69m

$69m

($3m)

($108m)

($61m)

$433m

$2,218m

ReportedCore OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater ChinaCore OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater ChinaCore OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater ChinaDiscontinued

Operations

Reported

FY22 EBITIngredientsFoodServiceConsumerFY23 EBIT

31

Review of FY23 Performance |
Summary of Normalisations

ItemImpact on EBITImpact on Gearing

Gain on Sale of Soprole▲$349m gain on sale▼

Sale proceeds reduce Net Debt, although this was offset

by the one-off $804m capital return. The gain on sale

increases Equity.

Gain on Sale of Hangu China farm▼

$12m loss on sale for the 100% owned

subsidiary.


Sale proceeds reduce Net Debt, while the loss on sale

decreases Equity. Given current gearing levels the net

impact should be a reduction in Gearing.

Normalisation Adjustments to EBIT

NZ$ millionFY20FY21FY22FY23

Disposals$543m$23m$42m$337m

Impairment ($232m)($16m)($57m)

Other / Strategy ($43m)

Total$268m$7m($15m)$337m

Reported EBIT$1,147m$959m$976m$2,218m

Normalisations($268m)($7m)$15m($337m)

Normalised EBIT$879m$952m$991m$1,881m

Impact of FY23 Normalisations

32

Review of FY23 Performance |
Long Term Reference vs Non-Reference Price Relativities

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Oct-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

USD / MT

Whole Milk Powder (Reference Product)Cheddar (Non-Reference Product)

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Oct-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

USD / MT

Reference vs Non-Reference Price Relativity Proxies

Price Margin between Reference and Non-Reference Proxies

33

Source: GDT

Review of FY23 Performance |
Free Cash Flow

NZ$ MillionFY22FY23% Change

Profit before Finance and Tax9762,218127%

Adjustments952502(47%)

Change in NWC(1,598)871(155%)

Interest & Taxes Paid(434)(409)(6%)

Cash Flow from Operations(104)3,182n/a

Divestments & Asset Sales268463154%

Capital Expenditure & Other(543)(714)31%

Cash Flow from Investments(517)132(126%)

Dividends Paid(323)(403)25%

Capital Return Payable-804n/a

Other Financing Cash Flows(70)25(136%)

Cash Flow from Financing(393)(1,182)201%

Net Cash Flow(1,014)2,132(310%)

Free Cash Flow (Operating & Investing)(621)3,314(634%)

Free Cash Flow (NZ$ million)

34

2,184

670

600

1,095

1,828

1,417

(621)

3,314

FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Review of FY23 Performance |
Historical Total Payout

$5.33

$3.60

$4.25

$4.59

$4.10

$4.46

$7.66

$5.23

$6.37

$7.90

$6.40

$6.16

$8.50

$4.65

$4.30

$6.52

$6.79

$6.35

$7.19

$7.74

$9.50

$8.72

FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Dividend per ShareFarmgate Milk Price

10 Year Average Payout of $7.03 per kgMS

Total Payout (Nominal NZ$ per kgMS)

Total Payout

1

(Real NZ$ per kgMS)

Figures reflect the average payout for a 100% share-backed supplier.

1

Adjustment made based on CPI average during relevant period, reflects price in today’s dollars

$8.88

$5.86

$6.80

$7.15

$6.18

$6.54

$10.90

$7.21

$8.62

$10.30

$8.16

$7.79

$10.59

$5.76

$5.31

$7.93

$8.14

$7.48

$8.32

$8.78

$10.14

$8.72

FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

Dividend per ShareFarmgate Milk Price

10 Year Average Payout of $8.12 per kgMS

1

35

Review of FY23 Performance |
Total Shareholder Returns Since Inception

1

CAGR = Compound annual growth rate.

2

Share price taken from FYE2017 (31/07/17)

The below chart identifies the current value of $1.00 invested in Fonterra Co-operative Group at its inception in 2001.

Including the 50c one-off tax-exempt capital return, values at the end of FY23 were $2.56 on a pre-tax basis ($1.85 post-tax), equivalent to a 4.3% pre-tax CAGR

1

(2.8% post-tax).

Without the inclusion of the capital return these values were $2.21 on a pre-tax basis ($1.58 post-tax), equivalent to a 3.6% pre-tax CAGR

1

(2.1% post-tax).

The pre-tax total shareholder return for the full FY23 year was +61%, a material increase from 4% in FY22. This outcome for FY23 reflects a 17.2% increase in share price over the year

(from $2.28 to $2.67), an effective 22% return from the capital return and a 22% dividend yield on the opening share price.

The annualised TSR in the last five years is 0.6% and -1.2% on a post and pre tax basis, respectively

2

.

$2.56

$1.77

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$ per FCG Share

Fonterra Pre-Tax TSRFonterra Post-Tax TSR

Investment Value of $1 Invested in Fonterra at Inception

36

Review of FY23 Performance |
-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Price Discount

Capital Structure Review

Announcement Date

~16% average

discount over the

last 12 months

FSF and FCG Share Price Comparison

Daily Share Price Comparison

1

Discount of FCG Share Price to FSF Share Price

1

37

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

NZD per Share / Unit

FSF Unit PriceFCG Share Price

Capital Structure Review

Announcement Date

1

Uses daily volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Source: Fonterra

Review of FY23 Performance |
Historical Earnings per Share Performance vs Guidance

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21FY22

FY23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18Mar-19Sep-19Mar-20Sep-20Mar-21Sep-21Mar-22Sep-22Mar-23Sep-23

Earnings per Share

Historical Earnings Per Share Guidance Midpoint vs Actual Reported

= Actual EPS Reported at

end of guidance period

38

Review of FY23 Performance |
Flexible Shareholding Summary

A new Flexible Shareholding structure came into effect during FY23. The key changes between

the old structure and the new structure are summarised in the table below.

Key ItemsOld StructureNew Structure

Increased flexibility

Share minimum: 1:1 / 100%

Share minimum: 1:3 / 33%

Move to a farmer-only market

with the Fund capped

Shares and units traded and

exchanged between FSF and

FCG.

Capped FSF, can only transfer

shares into units

More types of farmers can hold

shares

Supplying Farmer owners and

sharemilkers if transferred

Addition of associated

sharemilkers, contract milkers

and farm lessors.

Entry provision eased

Up to 3 seasons to exit

Share-up & My Milk offered

Up to 6 seasons to exit

No Share-up & My Milk

Exit provisions extended

Up to 3 seasons to exit,

minimum 1/3 per year.

Large extension for current and

new supplying farmers.

Same voting rights

1 vote per 1000 kgMS supplied

(share-backed)

1 vote per 1000 kgMS supplied

(share-backed)

MetricAs at July 2023Threshold

Total Shares on Issue above the aggregate Share

Standard

12.22%+/- 15.00%

Shares Held by Ceased Shareholders and

Permitted Transfers

9.23%≤ 25.00%

Shares held for the Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund

(“Overall Limit”)

6.67%≤ 15.00%

Since Flexible Shareholding came into effect on 28

th

March 2023, there hasn’t been any material

change to the Group’s shareholding structure. As at 31

st

July 2023, the Group was well within the

specified thresholds for all three Flexible Shareholding metrics:

39

Review of FY23 Performance |
-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

-

250

500

750

1,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

Comparable Company Performance

40

Fonterra is very different to other entities operating in the NZ dairy sector and to overseas dairy co-ops and companies. This is due to a range of factors including the DIRA regulatory regime, scale and

product mix. Arguably the most comparable entities to Fonterra can be found overseas. This includes Arla and Friesland Campina, which are both farmer co-operatives (based in Denmark and the

Netherlands respectively) with substantial commodity and consumer operations. However, neither company is subject to the samere gulatory regime as Fonterra.

The comparisons on the following pages provide a high-level overview of revenue and earnings over time for companies in both dairy ingredients and value-add sectors, along with a single ‘point in time’

view of summary financial ratios. It is important to note that these comparisons do not take into account the differing mix of c ore dairy ingredients and value-add divisions for each company, which is a

key driver of the differing margins and gearing.

They also do not take into account different regulatory regimes for the other dairy co-operatives and the impact such regimes may have on margins, capital investment required and ultimate returns.

Finally, the performance trends over time all reflect the currency exchange rates at the relevant time, and relative changes in those rates may affect the values presented.

Dairy Co-ops

All figures are quoted in New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated. Figures sourced from Capital IQ and Annual Reports.

Note: Companies presented here have a December financial year end compared to Fonterra’s July year end.

Review of FY23 Performance |
-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

Comparable Company Performance (Continued)

41

Dairy Companies

All figures are quoted in New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated. Figures sourced from Capital IQ and Annual Reports.

Note: Companies presented here have a December financial year end compared to Fonterra’s July year end.

Review of FY23 Performance |
EBIT Margin

Gearing Ratio

5.0%

3.3%

5.2%

8.5%

31.9%

45.9%

20.7%

28.8%

10.4%

16.6%

3.6%

12.2%

27.1%

42.4%

23.7%

47.8%

Average EBIT Margin

10.7%

Average Gearing

35.3%

Average EBIT Margin

(excl. Fonterra) 4.5%

Average Gearing (excl.

Fonterra) 32.8%

Dairy Companies

Dairy Co-ops

Dairy Companies

Dairy Co-ops

42

All figures are quoted in New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated. Figures sourced from Capital IQ and Annual Reports.

Note: Companies presented here have a December financial year end compared to Fonterra’s July year end.

Review of FY23 Performance |
11.0%

15.9%

38.8%

10.8%

16.0%

19.2%

44.0%

17.7%

Gross Margin

Operating Expenses to Sales

Dairy Companies

Dairy Co-ops

44.5%

45.4%

33.4%

46.1%

Average Gross Margin

42.3%

Average Gross Margin

(excl. Fonterra) 26.4%

34.2%

28.8%

29.8%

33.8%

Dairy Companies

Dairy Co-ops

43

All figures are quoted in New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated. Figures sourced from Capital IQ and Annual Reports.

Note: Companies presented here have a December financial year end compared to Fonterra’s July year end.

Average Opex to

Sales 31.6%

Average Opex to Sales

(excl. Fonterra 21.9%

Review of FY23 Performance |
•The share price data below provides comparisons to New Zealand and international dairy competitors to illustrate the performance of Fonterra’s share price against some of the company’s peers.

•Fonterra is the only entity within our Co-op set that is both a co-operative and a publicly listed company, therefore comparison of market pricing has only been completed against other publicly listed companies.

Similar to prior analysis, it is important to note that this does not take into account any regulatory differences or local market conditions that may ultimately impact share price data. It also excludes dividends paid to

shareholders or unitholders.

•The below chart demonstrates the current share price of Fonterra and its competitors in comparison to their share price at the start of FY23 (1 August 2022). Fonterra’s final position of 0.99x indicates that the

share price is currently at 99% of its opening price ($2.29 opening vs $2.28 closing).

Daily price information has been rebased in NZD to 1/08/22 for comparability between share price and local currency.

Source: CapitalIQ as at 10 October 2023, Fonterra share price is represented by FCG.NZ

New Zealand Dairy Manufacturers

Global Dairy Competitors

Share Price Performance – Dairy Competitors

44

0.99x

0.41x

0.84x

0.2x

0.4x

0.6x

0.8x

1.0x

1.2x

1.4x

1.6x

FonterraSynlaitA2 Milk

0.99x

1.09x

0.99x

0.79x

0.7x

0.8x

0.9x

1.0x

1.1x

1.2x

1.3x

FonterraDanoneSavencia GroupKerry

Review of FY23 Performance |
Abbreviations & Definitions

TermDefinition

AMENARepresents the Ingredients, Foodservice and Consumer channels in Africa, Middle East, Europe, North Asia and Americas

CAGRCompound average growth rate

CapexCapital expenditure

Co-op, Group or the CompanyFonterra Co-operative Group Limited

CYCalendar year ending 31 December

DIRADairy Industry Restructuring Act

DPA BrazilDairy Partners Americas Brazil

EBITEarnings before interest and tax

EBITDAEarnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation

EPSEarnings per share

ESGEnvironmental, social and governance

FCGShares in Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd (FCG.NZ)

FGMPFarmgate Milk Price

FSFShares in Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund (FSF.NZ)

FYFinancial year ending 31 July

FXForeign exchange

GDTGlobal Dairy Trade

kgMSKilograms of milk solids

LTAsLong Term Aspirations

MTMetric tonnes

NPATNet profit after tax

Non-Reference ProductsProducts that are not included in the calculation of the Farmgate Milk Price.

NWCNet working capital

NZDNew Zealand dollars

PP&EPlant, property and equipment

Reference ProductsIncludes commodity products and groups that are included in the calculation of the Farmgate Milk Price.

RHSRight hand side (axis)

ROCEReturn on capital employed

SMP

Skim milk powder

TSR

Total shareholder return

USDUnited States dollars

WACCWeighted average cost of capital

WMPWhole milk powder

45

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Auckland 1143

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Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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