Global Dairy Update October 2023
• Fonterra revises FY24 Forecast Farmgate Milk Price.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Australia and EU monthly production
increased. New Zealand and US monthly
production decreased.
• Australia monthly exports increased.
New Zealand, EU and US monthly
exports decreased.
• Middle East & Africa monthly imports
increased. China, Asia and Latin America
monthly imports decreased.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections in
September were 166.1 million kgMS, down
0.1% on the prior season.
• Fonterra Australia milk collections in
September were 9.7 million kgMS, down 2.3%
on the prior season.
• Fast-tracking probiotic potential.
Key Dates
9 November 2023
Fonterra Co-operative Group
Annual Meeting
13 November 2023
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund
Annual Meeting
7 December 2023
FY24 Q1 Business Update
OCTOBER 2023
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
Change for August 2023
compared to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to September 2023
Change for the 12 months
to September 2023
Change for the 12 months
to September 2023
Change for the 12 months
to August 2023
0.21.50.4
3.00.90.4
0.1
0.1
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Australia and EU monthly
production increased.
New Zealand
and US monthly
production decreased
New Zealand milk
production was down
0.4% on a litres basis (up
1.3% on milk solids basis) in
September compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was due to
tough weather conditions in
the North Island causing lack
of early season milk, partially
offset by stronger collections
in the South Island.
New Zealand milk
production for the
12 months to September
was up 0.1% on a litres basis
compared to the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for September, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production increased 1.5%
in September compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The production increase
was driven by a recovery in
pasture production despite
lower-than-average rainfall in
most regions.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to September
was down 3.0% on the
previous comparable period.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
September, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production¹
increased 0.1% in August
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The production increase was
driven by Germany, Poland,
and Belgium, and partially
offset by decreases in France
and Italy.
EU milk production for the
12 months to August was
up 0.9% on the previous
comparable period.
The production increase was
driven primarily by Germany,
the Netherlands and Poland,
partially offset by decreases
in France and Ireland.
US milk production
decreased 0.2% in
September compared to the
same period the year prior.
Continued lower milk
yield, paired with heat
waves lasting longer than
anticipated, resulted in a
third consecutive decrease
in monthly production
year-on-year.
Milk production for the
12 months to September
increased 0.4% on the
previous comparable period.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
Australia monthly exports
increased. New Zealand,
EU and US monthly
exports decreased
Total New Zealand dairy
exports decreased 17.6%,
or 41,569 MT, in September
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was due to
lower exported volumes
of fluid milk products,
particularly to China, as well
as lower export volumes of
WMP and AMF.
Exports for the 12 months to
September were up 1.0%, or
33,464 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
increases in SMP and cheese,
partially offset by a decrease
in WMP.
EU dairy exports
decreased 4.2%, or
23,612 MT, in August
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower export volumes of
infant formula to China. This
was partially offset higher
export volumes of SMP to
Southeast Asia and Algeria.
Exports for the 12 months to
August were down 2.9%, or
194,684 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
lower volumes of fluid milk
products to China, and
partially offset by higher
volume of SMP to Southeast
Asia and Algeria.
US dairy exports
decreased 10.3%, or
26,010 MT, in August
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly
due to lower whey demand
from China.
Exports for the 12 months to
August were down 2.5%, or
70,398 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to lower
exported volumes of whey
and fluid milk products, and
partially offset by higher
volumes of lactose.
Australia dairy exports
increased 4.1%, or 2,106 MT,
in August compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase in exports was
mainly due to higher export
volumes of SMP, lactose
and whey powder. This was
partially offset by lower
exported volumes of fluid
milk products and sweetened
milk powder.
Exports for the 12 months to
August were down 28.9%, or
266,974 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to lower
export volumes of fluid
milk products, SMP, cheese
and WMP.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
Change for August 2023
compared to August 2022
Change for August 2023
compared to August 2022
Change for August 2023
compared to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2023
Change for the 12 months
to August 2023
Change for the 12 months
to September 2023
Change for the 12 months
to August 2023
10.34.1
17.6
4.2
2.528.92.91.0
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Middle East & Africa
monthly imports
increased. China,
Asia and Latin
America monthly
imports decreased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹
decreased 0.3%, or 668 MT,
in August compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower volumes of WMP to
Peru, Guatemala, and Cuba.
Imports for the 12 months
to August were up 11.3%, or
247,213 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher volumes of WMP to
Brazil, and SMP to Mexico.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 3.6%, or
16,769 MT, in August
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower volumes of lactose
and infant formula.
Imports for the 12 months to
August were down 5.8%, or
297,488 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
lower volumes of SMP to
Philippines and Malaysia,
and fluid milk products to
Malaysia and Cambodia.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 3.0%, or 12,859 MT,
in August compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher volumes of SMP to
Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
Imports for the 12 months
to August were up 4.2%, or
224,311 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher volumes of SMP to
Algeria, and partially offset
by lower volume of fluid milk
product to Iraq, the United
Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
12. 1%, or 31,533 MT, in
September compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower import volumes of
WMP, infant formula and
whey. This was partially
offset by an increase
in demand for lactose
and cheese.
Imports for the 12 months
to September were down
10.2%, or 360,764 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was due to a decrease
in import demand for fluid
milk products and WMP
reflecting ongoing excess
domestic supply.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for August 2023
compared to August 2022
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
Change for August 2023
compared to August 2022
Change for August 2023
compared to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2023
Change for the 12 months
to August 2023
Change for the 12 months
to August 2023
12.13.60.3
5.84.2
%
Change for the 12 months
to September 2023
10.2
3.0
11.3
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 30 September
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 September
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 September
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 September
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
Change for September 2023
compared to September 2022
2.33.92.60.1
0.13.83.10.9
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections in September
were 9.7 million kgMS,
2.3% behind September
last season.
Collections decreased in
September mainly due to
lower third-party collections.
Season-to-date collections
were 22.1 million kgMS,
0.1% behind last season.
Collections decreased mainly
due to a return to warmer,
drier weather patterns.
North Island milk
collection in September
was 99.9 million kgMS,
2.6% behind September
last season.
Season-to-date collections
were 192.5 million kgMS,
3.1% behind last season.
September weather has
continued to be volatile,
causing lower pasture
growth rates creating
challenges for farmers
moving into mating and
peak milk.
South Island milk
collection in September
was 66.3 million kgMS,
3.9% ahead of September
last season.
Season-to-date collections
were 96.9 million kgMS, 3.8%
ahead of last season.
The South Island had good
weather conditions for this
time of year, despite some
flooding in the lower south
later in the month.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for September
were 166.1 million kgMS,
0.1% behind September
last season.
The decrease was due to
lower collections in the
North Island partially offset
by stronger milk collections
in the South Island.
Season-to-date collections
were 289.4 million kgMS,
0.9% behind last season.
Forecast milk price pressures
and farm working expenses
remain high. Some farmers
are reducing spend,
potentially lowering overall
productivity on farm.
%%
%
%
%
%%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
OCT
DEC MAR JUL OCT JAN AUG MAY
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
US interest rates are increasingly likely to remain high for
some time yet, with increased risk that additional monetary
tightening is required. This, together with a strong US
economic performance continues to support the USD. Some
brighter spots in the New Zealand economy have been
offset by economic uncertainty in the Asian region and the
New Zealand general election. The NZD/USD exchange rate
traded between 0.5774 and 0.6056 during October.
Fonterra GDT results at
trading event 342
17 October 2023:
The next trading event will be held on 7 November 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
3.0
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,243
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
33.9
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 3,858/MT
0.1
CHEDDAR
USD 5,310/MT
6.6
AMF
USD 3,059/MT
4.4
WMP
USD 2,658/MT
4.4
SMP
USD 4,940/MT
2.8
BUTTER
33,856
MT
LATEST AUCTION
202,969
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Fonterra revises
FY24 Forecast Farmgate
Milk Price
On 9 October 2023, Fonterra
Co-operative Group Ltd
raised the 2023/24 season
forecast Farmgate Milk Price
range to $6.50-$8.00 per
kgMS, with a new midpoint
of $7.25 per kgMS, up
50 cents.
Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell
says the improved outlook
reflects both supply and
demand dynamics.
“Here in New Zealand we’re
forecasting collections to be
slightly below last season,
while aggregate milk growth
in key export countries
is expected to be below
average for FY24. The El Niño
weather pattern may have
further impacts on supply,
and this could be driving
recent buyer sentiment.
“On the demand side, we
have seen increases in
recent Global Dairy Trade
events. While this has been
encouraging, it is not yet
clear whether the stronger
demand from China will
be sustained. For other key
regions, customers remain
relatively cautious in terms
of their forward purchases.
“It’s still early days in terms
of the proportion of our
FY24 sales book that we’ve
contracted, so we still
face significant exposure
to volatility in commodity
prices. Exchange rate
volatility is another factor to
keep in mind. Our foreign
exchange hedging strategy
is designed to help lessen
the impact of this, and also
supports a higher Advance
Rate level than would be
possible without hedging.
“We’ll continue to let our
farmers and the market know
as soon as we can when we
think things have materially
shifted,” says Mr Hurrell.
Fast-tracking
probiotic potential
Fonterra is taking another
step in leveraging its
expertise in probiotics
by partnering with APC
Microbiome Ireland, a world-
leading Science Foundation
Ireland research centre that
is focused on harnessing the
power of the microbiome for
the health and wellbeing of
people and planet.
The partnership will focus on
the human microbiome and
will see the establishment
of the Fonterra Microbiome
Research Centre at the
University College Cork, to
be operational by the end
of 2023.
The centre will help to
identify and substantiate
the health benefits of
Fonterra’s probiotics, with
the aim of bringing several
new probiotic strains to
the market over the next
5-10 years.
With an increased awareness
of the positive impact
probiotics can have on
health and wellbeing, more
people are looking to include
them in their diet. As this
awareness continues to
grow, the development of
probiotic products holds
enormous market potential
for Fonterra.
There has been a dramatic
increase in demand for
Fonterra’s probiotics recently,
with sales increasing about
ten-fold over the last few
years. Harnessing the
expertise of APC Microbiome
Ireland will enable Fonterra
to fast-track development of
new strains to manufacture
and sell at a global scale.
Leading in dairy innovation
and science to create high-
quality nutrition is core
to Fonterra’s strategy and
probiotics are a significant
focus. Fonterra is already well
positioned in this space: the
Co-operative is home to one
of the world’s largest dairy
culture collections (more
than 40,000 strains) and has
been developing probiotics
for nearly 30 years.
Fonterra GM Science
Technology Dr Mark Malone
says the Co-operative is
looking forward to working
with the APC.
“This new partnership
with the APC is a fantastic
opportunity for Fonterra
to collaborate with world
leading experts in the field of
probiotics and microbiome
research. This will expand
Fonterra’s health and
nutrition expertise and
accelerate our development
of new and differentiated
nutritional offerings.”
Professor Paul Ross,
Director APC Microbiome
Ireland, is also excited
about the opportunities the
partnership presents.
“This is a significant
development for the
APC, and we are thrilled
to be working together
with Fonterra. This latest
collaboration with industry
underlines the APC’s
reputation as a global
leader in microbiome
research and our expertise
in supporting new product
development with our
Irish and international
industry partners.”
Probiotics (live, beneficial
microbes) have long been
proven to have a positive
impact on our gut health.
They can help to balance the
trillions of bacteria living in
our gut, known as our gut
microbiome, and may also
help to improve gut comfort
and protect us from the bad
microbes that for instance
cause diarrhoea. However,
it’s important to remember
that only those strains with
a scientifically demonstrated
effect on health, such as
Fonterra's Bifidobacterium
animalis strain BifidoB
019 (DR10TM) should be
called probiotics.
Our Co-op
8
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU to August; New Zealand, US and Australia to September.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to August; New Zealand to September.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to August; and China to September.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT
FEB
JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
SEPTEMBER
2023
SEPTEMBER
2022
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2023/24
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
166.1166.3(0.1%)289.4292.1(0.9%)
North Island99.9102.5(2.6%)192.5198.7(3.1%)
South Island66.363.83.9%96.993.43.8%
Australia9.710.0(2.3%)22.122.10.1%
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(17 OCTOBER 2023)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
33,856202,969
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
20.0%23.0%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,2433,054
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(13.6%)(21.9%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
3.0%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update October 20232023-11-01
“• Fonterra revises FY24 Forecast Farmgate Milk Price. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Australia and EU monthly production increased. New Zealand and US monthly production decreased. • Australia monthly exports increased. New Zealand, EU and US monthly exports decreased. • Midd…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update September 20232023-09-28
“• On 21 September Fonterra announced its FY23 Annual Results and a strong full year dividend. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Australia and EU monthly production increased. New Zealand and US monthly production decreased. • New Zealand and EU monthly exports increased. Austra…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update November 20232023-11-30
“• New partnership offers Fonterra farmers cheaper, cleaner refrigeration. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Australia and EU monthly production increased. New Zealand and US monthly production decreased. • New Zealand monthly exports increased. Australia EU and US monthly export…”