Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update October 2023

Operational Update1 November 2023FCGConsumer Staples

• Fonterra revises FY24 Forecast Farmgate Milk Price.
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Australia and EU monthly production

increased. New Zealand and US monthly

production decreased.

• Australia monthly exports increased.

New Zealand, EU and US monthly

exports decreased.

• Middle East & Africa monthly imports

increased. China, Asia and Latin America

monthly imports decreased.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections in

September were 166.1 million kgMS, down

0.1% on the prior season.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections in

September were 9.7 million kgMS, down 2.3%

on the prior season.

• Fast-tracking probiotic potential.

Key Dates

9 November 2023

Fonterra Co-operative Group

Annual Meeting

13 November 2023

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

7 December 2023

FY24 Q1 Business Update

OCTOBER 2023

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

Change for August 2023

compared to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to September 2023

Change for the 12 months

to September 2023

Change for the 12 months

to September 2023

Change for the 12 months

to August 2023

0.21.50.4

3.00.90.4

0.1

0.1

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Australia and EU monthly

production increased.

New Zealand

and US monthly

production decreased

New Zealand milk

production was down

0.4% on a litres basis (up

1.3% on milk solids basis) in

September compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was due to

tough weather conditions in

the North Island causing lack

of early season milk, partially

offset by stronger collections

in the South Island.

New Zealand milk

production for the

12 months to September

was up 0.1% on a litres basis

compared to the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for September, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 1.5%

in September compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The production increase

was driven by a recovery in

pasture production despite

lower-than-average rainfall in

most regions.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to September

was down 3.0% on the

previous comparable period.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

September, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production¹

increased 0.1% in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The production increase was

driven by Germany, Poland,

and Belgium, and partially

offset by decreases in France

and Italy.

EU milk production for the

12 months to August was

up 0.9% on the previous

comparable period.

The production increase was

driven primarily by Germany,

the Netherlands and Poland,

partially offset by decreases

in France and Ireland.

US milk production

decreased 0.2% in

September compared to the

same period the year prior.

Continued lower milk

yield, paired with heat

waves lasting longer than

anticipated, resulted in a

third consecutive decrease

in monthly production

year-on-year.

Milk production for the

12 months to September

increased 0.4% on the

previous comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

Australia monthly exports

increased. New Zealand,

EU and US monthly

exports decreased

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased 17.6%,

or 41,569 MT, in September

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was due to

lower exported volumes

of fluid milk products,

particularly to China, as well

as lower export volumes of

WMP and AMF.

Exports for the 12 months to

September were up 1.0%, or

33,464 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

increases in SMP and cheese,

partially offset by a decrease

in WMP.

EU dairy exports

decreased 4.2%, or

23,612 MT, in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower export volumes of

infant formula to China. This

was partially offset higher

export volumes of SMP to

Southeast Asia and Algeria.

Exports for the 12 months to

August were down 2.9%, or

194,684 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

lower volumes of fluid milk

products to China, and

partially offset by higher

volume of SMP to Southeast

Asia and Algeria.

US dairy exports

decreased 10.3%, or

26,010 MT, in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly

due to lower whey demand

from China.

Exports for the 12 months to

August were down 2.5%, or

70,398 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to lower

exported volumes of whey

and fluid milk products, and

partially offset by higher

volumes of lactose.

Australia dairy exports

increased 4.1%, or 2,106 MT,

in August compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase in exports was

mainly due to higher export

volumes of SMP, lactose

and whey powder. This was

partially offset by lower

exported volumes of fluid

milk products and sweetened

milk powder.

Exports for the 12 months to

August were down 28.9%, or

266,974 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to lower

export volumes of fluid

milk products, SMP, cheese

and WMP.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

Change for August 2023

compared to August 2022

Change for August 2023

compared to August 2022

Change for August 2023

compared to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2023

Change for the 12 months

to August 2023

Change for the 12 months

to September 2023

Change for the 12 months

to August 2023

10.34.1

17.6

4.2

2.528.92.91.0

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Middle East & Africa

monthly imports

increased. China,

Asia and Latin

America monthly

imports decreased

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹

decreased 0.3%, or 668  MT,

in August compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower volumes of WMP to

Peru, Guatemala, and Cuba.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 11.3%, or

247,213 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

higher volumes of WMP to

Brazil, and SMP to Mexico.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 3.6%, or

16,769 MT, in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower volumes of lactose

and infant formula.

Imports for the 12 months to

August were down 5.8%, or

297,488 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

lower volumes of SMP to

Philippines and Malaysia,

and fluid milk products to

Malaysia and Cambodia.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 3.0%, or 12,859 MT,

in August compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher volumes of SMP to

Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 4.2%, or

224,311 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

higher volumes of SMP to

Algeria, and partially offset

by lower volume of fluid milk

product to Iraq, the United

Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by

12. 1%, or 31,533 MT, in

September compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower import volumes of

WMP, infant formula and

whey. This was partially

offset by an increase

in demand for lactose

and cheese.

Imports for the 12 months

to September were down

10.2%, or 360,764 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was due to a decrease

in import demand for fluid

milk products and WMP

reflecting ongoing excess

domestic supply.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for August 2023

compared to August 2022

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

Change for August 2023

compared to August 2022

Change for August 2023

compared to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2023

Change for the 12 months

to August 2023

Change for the 12 months

to August 2023

12.13.60.3

5.84.2

%

Change for the 12 months

to September 2023

10.2

3.0

11.3

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 30 September

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 September

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 September

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 September

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

Change for September 2023

compared to September 2022

2.33.92.60.1

0.13.83.10.9

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections in September

were 9.7 million kgMS,

2.3% behind September

last season.

Collections decreased in

September mainly due to

lower third-party collections.

Season-to-date collections

were 22.1 million kgMS,

0.1% behind last season.

Collections decreased mainly

due to a return to warmer,

drier weather patterns.

North Island milk

collection in September

was 99.9 million kgMS,

2.6% behind September

last season.

Season-to-date collections

were 192.5 million kgMS,

3.1% behind last season.

September weather has

continued to be volatile,

causing lower pasture

growth rates creating

challenges for farmers

moving into mating and

peak milk.

South Island milk

collection in September

was 66.3 million kgMS,

3.9% ahead of September

last season.

Season-to-date collections

were 96.9 million kgMS, 3.8%

ahead of last season.

The South Island had good

weather conditions for this

time of year, despite some

flooding in the lower south

later in the month.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for September

were 166.1 million kgMS,

0.1% behind September

last season.

The decrease was due to

lower collections in the

North Island partially offset

by stronger milk collections

in the South Island.

Season-to-date collections

were 289.4 million kgMS,

0.9% behind last season.

Forecast milk price pressures

and farm working expenses

remain high. Some farmers

are reducing spend,

potentially lowering overall

productivity on farm.

%%

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To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

OCT  DEC MAR  JUL  OCT  JAN AUG MAY 





, 

, 

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

US interest rates are increasingly likely to remain high for

some time yet, with increased risk that additional monetary

tightening is required. This, together with a strong US

economic performance continues to support the USD. Some

brighter spots in the New Zealand economy have been

offset by economic uncertainty in the Asian region and the

New Zealand general election. The NZD/USD exchange rate

traded between 0.5774 and 0.6056 during October.

Fonterra GDT results at

trading event 342

17 October 2023:

The next trading event will be held on 7 November 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

3.0

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,243

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

33.9

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,858/MT

0.1

CHEDDAR

USD 5,310/MT

6.6

AMF

USD 3,059/MT

4.4

WMP

USD 2,658/MT

4.4

SMP

USD 4,940/MT

2.8

BUTTER

33,856

MT

LATEST AUCTION

202,969

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra revises

FY24 Forecast Farmgate

Milk Price

On 9 October 2023, Fonterra

Co-operative Group Ltd

raised the 2023/24 season

forecast Farmgate Milk Price

range to $6.50-$8.00 per

kgMS, with a new midpoint

of $7.25 per kgMS, up

50 cents.

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell

says the improved outlook

reflects both supply and

demand dynamics.

“Here in New Zealand we’re

forecasting collections to be

slightly below last season,

while aggregate milk growth

in key export countries

is expected to be below

average for FY24. The El Niño

weather pattern may have

further impacts on supply,

and this could be driving

recent buyer sentiment.

“On the demand side, we

have seen increases in

recent Global Dairy Trade

events. While this has been

encouraging, it is not yet

clear whether the stronger

demand from China will

be sustained. For other key

regions, customers remain

relatively cautious in terms

of their forward purchases.

“It’s still early days in terms

of the proportion of our

FY24 sales book that we’ve

contracted, so we still

face significant exposure

to volatility in commodity

prices. Exchange rate

volatility is another factor to

keep in mind. Our foreign

exchange hedging strategy

is designed to help lessen

the impact of this, and also

supports a higher Advance

Rate level than would be

possible without hedging.

“We’ll continue to let our

farmers and the market know

as soon as we can when we

think things have materially

shifted,” says Mr Hurrell.

Fast-tracking
probiotic potential

Fonterra is taking another

step in leveraging its

expertise in probiotics

by partnering with APC

Microbiome Ireland, a world-

leading Science Foundation

Ireland research centre that

is focused on harnessing the

power of the microbiome for

the health and wellbeing of

people and planet.

The partnership will focus on

the human microbiome and

will see the establishment

of the Fonterra Microbiome

Research Centre at the

University College Cork, to

be operational by the end

of 2023.

The centre will help to

identify and substantiate

the health benefits of

Fonterra’s probiotics, with

the aim of bringing several

new probiotic strains to

the market over the next

5-10 years.

With an increased awareness

of the positive impact

probiotics can have on

health and wellbeing, more

people are looking to include

them in their diet. As this

awareness continues to

grow, the development of

probiotic products holds

enormous market potential

for Fonterra.

There has been a dramatic

increase in demand for

Fonterra’s probiotics recently,

with sales increasing about

ten-fold over the last few

years. Harnessing the

expertise of APC Microbiome

Ireland will enable Fonterra

to fast-track development of

new strains to manufacture

and sell at a global scale.

Leading in dairy innovation

and science to create high-

quality nutrition is core

to Fonterra’s strategy and

probiotics are a significant

focus. Fonterra is already well

positioned in this space: the

Co-operative is home to one

of the world’s largest dairy

culture collections (more

than 40,000 strains) and has

been developing probiotics

for nearly 30 years.

Fonterra GM Science

Technology Dr Mark Malone

says the Co-operative is

looking forward to working

with the APC.

“This new partnership

with the APC is a fantastic

opportunity for Fonterra

to collaborate with world

leading experts in the field of

probiotics and microbiome

research. This will expand

Fonterra’s health and

nutrition expertise and

accelerate our development

of new and differentiated

nutritional offerings.”

Professor Paul Ross,

Director APC Microbiome

Ireland, is also excited

about the opportunities the

partnership presents.

“This is a significant

development for the

APC, and we are thrilled

to be working together

with Fonterra. This latest

collaboration with industry

underlines the APC’s

reputation as a global

leader in microbiome

research and our expertise

in supporting new product

development with our

Irish and international

industry partners.”

Probiotics (live, beneficial

microbes) have long been

proven to have a positive

impact on our gut health.

They can help to balance the

trillions of bacteria living in

our gut, known as our gut

microbiome, and may also

help to improve gut comfort

and protect us from the bad

microbes that for instance

cause diarrhoea. However,

it’s important to remember

that only those strains with

a scientifically demonstrated

effect on health, such as

Fonterra's Bifidobacterium

animalis strain BifidoB

019 (DR10TM) should be

called probiotics.

Our Co-op

8

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s

















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s





















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU to August; New Zealand, US and Australia to September.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to August; New Zealand to September.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to August; and China to September.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT

FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV DEC JUN

,
,

,

,

,
,

,

,
,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

SEPTEMBER

2023

SEPTEMBER


2022

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2023/24

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

166.1166.3(0.1%)289.4292.1(0.9%)

North Island99.9102.5(2.6%)192.5198.7(3.1%)

South Island66.363.83.9%96.993.43.8%

Australia9.710.0(2.3%)22.122.10.1%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(17 OCTOBER 2023)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

33,856202,969

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

20.0%23.0%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,2433,054

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(13.6%)(21.9%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

3.0%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.

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    2023-11-30

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