Marlin Global Limited logo

MLN – November 2023 monthly update

Operational Update16 November 2023MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for October was down -0.4%,

while the adjusted NAV return was down -0.6%. This compared

with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap

Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was down -2.9%.

There was a continuation of the trend we have seen since August

with global equities posting three negative months in a row.

US equities were down -2.1%, outperforming global equites,

European equities were down -2.6% and emerging markets were

down -3.9%. Growth stocks proved relatively resilient versus

their value counterparts, returning -2.4% over the month in

comparison to -3.4% for value stocks.

October saw multiple data points that signalled the resilience

of the US economy, including a robust jobs report, strong retail

sales data and a higher-than-expected GDP print of 4.9%

annualised for the third quarter. Inflation came in hotter-than-

expected, with the headline figure flat at 3.7% year-on-year in

September, against expectations of a slight moderation. The

strength of these data points suggests that the Fed may have

to hold interest rates higher for longer than investors have been

expecting, which combined with renewed geopolitical uncertainty

weighed on stocks in October.

Portfolio

Amazon (+5%) reported better than expected Q3 earnings

at the end of October. Amazon’s important cloud computing

platform AWS reported stabilised revenue growth at 12%, in-line

with last quarter. CEO Jassy made strong commentary that the

headwinds AWS has faced from customers ‘optimising’ their

spend is meaningfully reducing. Amazon’s advertising business

was again a stand-out performer and reaccelerated in the

quarter, growing 25%. Total operating income had remarkable

growth, growing by 343% year-on-year with margins expanding

to 7.8% (vs. 2.0% a year ago) and outperforming expectations by

45%. This margin expansion is being driven by, 1. improvement

in AWS margin; and 2. gaining efficiencies in its expanded

fulfilment and logistics infrastructure.

Netflix (+9%) shares rose 16% after a strong quarterly update

where the company saw higher-than-expected increase in

subscribers and upgraded its free cash flow guidance for the

year. Netflix now has over 247mn subscribers globally, paying

on average US$12 per month for the service. Netflix also raised

prices for the first time since January 2022. Netflix remains the

sole profitable streaming provider with the largest number of

paying subscribers. This update demonstrates Netflix’s continued

pricing power, and its compelling value proposition of providing

endless hours of entertainment for less than the price of a movie

ticket per month.

Microsoft (+7%) had a strong earnings report in October

where the company outperformed expectations on revenue

and earnings. Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform,

surprised by reaccelerating revenue growth in the quarter to

28% vs. 27% in the previous quarter. Azure has been facing

similar “optimisation” headwinds to AWS and echoed comments

on easing “optimisation” headwinds. AI is scaling quickly for

Microsoft and contributed three percentage points to the growth

of Azure in the quarter, up from only one percentage point a

couple quarters ago.

Edwards Lifesciences (-8%) started the month strong as long-

term clinical data for its transcatheter heart valves (TAVR) came

in better than expectations. Both valves showed similar or better

outcomes versus the traditional surgical approach. While the

data from competitor Medtronic looked more favourable, these

were not head-to-head trials and direct comparisons are difficult.

Experts suggest there are several reasons why this new data

should not materially impact Edward’s dominant market share,

including ease of deployment and lower pacemaker rates with

Edward’s valves. The strong performance faltered later in the

month following earnings where TAVR revenue and guidance fell

slightly below expectations. An expected bounce in growth as

hospital staffing issues are resolved has not occurred this year,

raising questions around medium-term growth for TAVR. We still

believe that TAVR is underpenetrated globally, and the company

is making progress with its treatment of mitral and tricuspid heart

valves, which should sustain Edward’s revenue growth.

Danaher (-13%) fell alongside the wider industry as the industry

continues to face the perfect storm of i) lower COVID-19

revenues as vaccine and diagnostic testing volumes decline; ii)

customer destocking post the pandemic; iii) weakness in biotech

customer spend given tougher funding backdrop; and iv) decline

in Chinese sales given the weak macro environment. Revenue

declined 11.5% in the quarter, 8.5% of which was COVID

related. Commentary suggests we are nearing the bottom of

these headwinds and there are some green shoots, however the

1

Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

November 2023

$

0.89

Share Price

MLN NAVPREMIUM

1

$

0.87 2.4

%


as at 31 October 2023

Warrant Price

$

0.00

CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY

2

KEY DETAILS

as at 31 October 2023

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.06

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

208m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$185m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

slope of recovery as we go through 2024 is still unclear. During

the month, Danaher completed the spinoff of its Environmental

and Applied Solutions business, Veralto, with the remaining

Danaher business purely focused on the Life Sciences’ markets.

We sold our position in Veralto during the month.

Portfolio activity

We exited Dollar General (DG) in September due to lack of

clarity over its steady state earnings and lower confidence in

management. In early October, DG announced that former CEO

Todd Vasos was returning as CEO, after retiring a year earlier.

Vasos successfully led DG for seven years as CEO before retiring

and was in senior roles at the company for several years before

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 October 2023

25

%

10

%

20

%


FINANCIALS

21

%

GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT

as at 31 October 2023

7

%

WEST

EUROPE

80

%

NORTH

AMERICA

2

%


CASH &

DERIVATIVES

18

%

11

%


ASIA

2

%

CASH &

DERIVATIVES

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

becoming CEO. Quickly after his reappointment as CEO, Vasos

spoke with analysts and investors, giving strong confidence

around containment of the current investment cycle, longer-term

margins, and earnings power. As a result, our two main reasons

for exiting have changed for the better and have added DG back

to our portfolio at a 2% weighting.

HEALTH CARE

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

4

%


CONSUMER

STAPLES

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

3
OCTOBER’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

(in local currency) during the month

NETFLIX

+9

%

MSCI INC

-8

%

FLOOR & DÉCOR

-9

%

DANAHER CORP

-11

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 October 2023

AMAZON

9

%

MICROSOFT

7

%

ALPHABET

7

%

ICON

7

%

META PLATFORMS

6

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 16 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 October 2023

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(4.4%)(7.1%)(3.7%)(1.6%)+8.8%

Adjusted NAV Return(0.6%)(7.5%)+10.7%+2.2%+8.0%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (0.4%)(7.4%)+14.0%+4.6%+10.9%

Benchmark Index^(2.9%)(8.6%)+5.8%+8.0%+6.9%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.

PAYPAL HOLDINGS

-13

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 October 2023

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

Share Price Total Shareholder Return

Nov

2007

Nov

2011

Nov

2013

Nov

2014

Nov

2015

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2016

Nov

2020

Nov

2012

Nov

2022

Nov

2017

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2021

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place

allowing it (if it elects to do so) to acquire its

shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as

treasury stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be

utilised for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin warrant MLNWF had a final Exercise Price

of $0.92 and an Exercise Date of

10 November 2023

»Marlin currently has no warrants on issue


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated to

it from the Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement and other

written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is

managed by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio

Manager), Chris Waters (Senior

Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang

and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)

have prime responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together they

have significant combined experience

and are very capable of researching

and investing in the quality global

companies that Marlin targets. Fisher

Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.