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Fonterra lifts forecast FY24 earnings and Milk Price

Guidance6 December 2023FSFConsumer Staples

7 December 2023

Fonterra lifts forecast FY24 earnings and Farmgate Milk Price after strong Q1


Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd today increased its forecast Farmgate Milk Price and earnings guidance

for FY24 following a strong start to the year.


The forecast Farmgate Milk Price midpoint for the 2023/24 season is up 25 cents to $7.50 per kgMS, with

the forecast range moving from $6.50-$8.00 per kgMS to $7.00-$8.00 per kgMS.


Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell says the revised forecast reflects recent strengthening in demand for

reference commodity products from key importing regions, including improvement in demand from China

during the first quarter.


“Global Dairy Trade prices have lifted, and our sales book is also well contracted for this time of year,

giving us confidence to increase our forecast Farmgate Milk Price.


“It’s still early in the year, with potential for further volatility in commodity prices, so we will continue to

watch market dynamics closely and provide updates as needed,” says Mr Hurrell.


The Co-op also reported strong earnings for the first quarter due to improved performance in all three of

its sales channels.


“As a result, we have lifted the midpoint of our forecast earnings for the year up 5 cents per share, with

the range moving from 45-60 cents per share to 50-65 cents per share,” says Mr Hurrell.


Business performance


Fonterra's profit after tax is up 85% on this time last year to $392 million, equivalent to 24 cents per share.

EBIT is up 63% to $575 million.


These earnings are from continuing operations and exclude the performance and impact of selling DPA

Brazil

1

.



Fonterra Co-operative Group
Page 2


Mr Hurrell says higher margins across the Co-op's Ingredients, Foodservice and Consumer channels

have driven the lift in earnings, with gross margin up from 15.5% this time last year to 21.4%.


“Our Foodservice and Consumer channel performance is due to improved margins as well as the Co-op

allocating more milk to these higher returning channels.


“We've also seen continued strong performance in New Zealand Ingredients, but lower margins in

Australia Ingredients.


“Looking ahead, we expect these higher margins to continue throughout the first half of the year, before

tightening across all three sales channels in the second half of the year, due to higher input costs and the

gap between reference and non-reference product prices narrowing.


“Our increased forecast earnings guidance of 50-65 cents per share reflects this and we are on track for

a strong interim dividend,” says Mr Hurrell.


During the first quarter of FY24, the Co-op also continued to make progress against its strategy.


“In August, we returned 50 cents per share and unit following the completion of the sale of Soprole. We

also recently completed the divestment of DPA Brazil, as part of our plan to focus on our New Zealand

farmers’ milk.


“Our in-market teams are continuously working on new ways to commercialise our innovation expertise.


“This includes partnering with a customer in Japan to launch an adult milk powder containing our protein

and designed to target muscle loss, and partnering with a customer in Greater China to develop a cake

containing our probiotics in response to rising consumer interest in the health benefits of probiotics.


“As part of our plan to be a leader in sustainability, we introduced a target of a 30% reduction in on-farm

emissions intensity by 2030 (from a 2018 baseline) and have since been meeting with farmers to discuss

how the Co-op can collectively achieve it.


“We are pleased with the results for the first quarter of FY24 and see positive momentum across our

business as we work towards our 2030 goals,” says Mr Hurrell.


1

Including discontinued operations, FY24 Q1 Total Group profit after tax was $346 million.


ENDS


Non-GAAP financial information

Fonterra uses several non-GAAP measures when discussing financial performance. Non-GAAP measures are not

defined or specified by NZ IFRS.


Management believes that these measures provide useful information as they provide valuable insight on the

underlying performance of the business. They may be used internally to evaluate the underlying performance of

business units and to analyse trends. These measures are not uniformly defined or utilised by all companies.

Accordingly, these measures may not be comparable with similarly titled measures used by other companies. Non-

GAAP financial measures should not be viewed in isolation nor considered as a substitute for measures reported in

accordance with NZ IFRS.


Non-GAAP measures are not subject to audit unless they are included in Fonterra’s audited annual financial

statements.



Fonterra Co-operative Group
Page 3


For further information contact:

Philippa Norman

24-hour media line

Phone: +64 21 507 072

---

©FONTERRA
¹

²²

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 20242

from $214m

from 13cfrom 13c

midpoint up 25 centsmidpoint up 5 cents

©FONTERRA
•Upgraded FY24 farmgate milk price and full year earnings forecasts

•Farmgate Milk Price: demand improving from key importing regions and well contracted

sales book

•Earnings range: reflects continued improved performance of Foodservice and Consumer

margins during first half, with tighter margins in all threechannelsinthe second half

•Foodservice and Consumer channel earnings up,reflecting improved margins and higher volumes

•Continued strong performance in New Zealand Ingredients but lower margins in

Australia Ingredients

•Our in-market teams continue to commercialise our innovative expertise by partnering with

customers to launch new products

•Introduced a target of 30% reduction in on-farm emissions intensity by 2030

•Completed the sale of DPA Brazil

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 20243©FONTERRA

©FONTERRA
JunJulAugSepOctNov

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 20244

202120222023

JunJulAugSepOctNov

Cumulative contracted volume

JunJulAugSepOctNov

500

250

Metric tonnes

(000’s)

©FONTERRA
3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Reference Product shipment price

Non-Reference Product shipment price

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 20245

Q1 FY23Q1 FY22Q1 FY24

Average Non-Reference price:USD 4,939

Average Reference price:USD 4,453

Price difference:

485

Average Non-Reference price:USD 4,333

Average Reference price:USD 3,426

Price difference:

907

Favourable price relativities compared to prior year

due to a 23% decline in Reference prices relative to a

12% decline in Non-Reference

3

3

©FONTERRA
214(2)

212

9

229(16)

28(70)

392(46)

346

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 2024

13 cents

EPS

Improved due to increased

gross margins in all three

channels: Ingredients,

Foodservice and Consumer

Impacted by the sale of

DPA Brazil

Continuing operations’ drivers

6

13 cents

EPS

24 cents

EPS

20 cents

EPS

FY23 Q1

Total Group

profit after tax

4

Discontinued

operations

profit after tax

FY23 Q1

Continuing

operations

profit after tax

VolumeMarginOperating

expenses and

other

Net finance

costs

TaxFY24 Q1

Continuing

operations

profit after tax

Discontinued

operations

profit after tax

FY24 Q1

Total Group

profit after tax

5

©FONTERRAQUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 20247
134146

14.4%

29.4%

FY23FY24

431415

13.9%

16.2%

FY23FY24

Volume (000' MT)

Gross margin

162174

23.9%

28.8%

FY23FY24

©FONTERRAQUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 20248
Lifted and narrowed range reflects:

•strengthening demand from key importing

regions for Reference Commodity Products

•well contracted sales book

per kgMS

2023/24

Season Forecast

2021/22 Season

$9.30

$8.22

USD/MT

2022/23 Season

Fonterra Reference Product shipment price

Average Reference Product shipment price for the season

GDT only Reference Product contract shipment price

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

May-21May-22May-23May-24

©FONTERRA
ma

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 20249

6

per share

Increasedearnings range reflects:

•well contracted sales book, locking in higher

margins for the first half of the year

•improved Foodservice and Consumer margins

during first half, but tightening in second half

•the impact of narrowing price relativities on

Ingredients’ margins in the second half

,

,

,

,

USD/MT

FY23

FY22

May-24

Q1

FY24

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

Fonterra Non-Reference shipment priceFonterra Reference shipment price

GDT only Non-Reference contract shipment priceGDT only Reference contract shipment price

©FONTERRAQUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 202410
1.FY24 Q1 includes $23 million attributable to non-controlling interests. Prior year comparative was $5 million

2.Excludes amounts attributable to non-controlling interests

3.Source: Fonterra Free Alongside Ship (FAS) prices of the New Zealand Ingredients Portfolio

4.Total Group profit after tax includes $5 million attributable to non-controlling interests

5.Total Group profit after tax includes $23 million attributable to non-controlling interests

6.Full year FY24 forecast earnings per share range is based on Continuing operations

©FONTERRAQUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 2024BUSINESS UPDATE 2024
12

•Gross margin up across all three channels

•Foodservice and Consumer channels achievedhigher

sales prices. Foodservice also benefitted from lower

input costs

•Ingredients –New Zealand Ingredients benefitting from

more favourable price relativities, partially offset by

tighter margins in Australia Ingredients reflecting higher

milk prices

•Operating expenses up, reflecting increased storage and

distribution costs to facilitate the higher sales volumes in

Foodservice and Consumer; and upfront costs of driving

efficiency initiatives

•Other up $17 million due to favourable net foreign

exchange movements

•EBIT up 63% driven by improved gross margins and higher

sales volumes in Foodservice and Consumer

•Net finance costs decreased 44% due to reduced

average borrowings

•Discontinued operations has decreased due to the loss on

sale of DPA Brazil ($72 million) which includes a loss of $68

million released from the Foreign Currency Translation

Reserve, offset by the FY23 divestments of Soproleand the

HanguChina Farm


1

Sales volume (‘000 MT)727735

1%

Revenue5,3254,972

(7)%

Cost of goods sold(4,499)(3,908)

13%

Gross profit8261,064

29%

Gross margin (%)15.5%21.4%

Operating expenses(492)(525)

(7)%

Other

2

1936

90%

EBIT 353575

63%

Net finance costs(64)(36)

44%

Tax expense(77)(147)

(91)%

Profit after tax from continuing operations212392

85%

Profit after tax from discontinued operations2(46)

Total Group profit after tax

3

214346

62%

Earnings per share (cents)1320

54%

12

Note: Total Group figures are for the three months ended 31 October

1.Percentages as shown in table may not align to the calculation of percentages based on numbers in the table due to rounding of figures

2.Consists of other operating income, net foreign exchange gains/(losses) and share of equity accounted investees

3.Includes amounts attributable to non-controlling interests

©FONTERRA
831

832

801

875

794

20202021202220232024

4.24.2

4.4

5.8

5.1

20202021202220232024

746

785

661

944

1,130

20202021202220232024

553

560

513

581

630

20202021202220232024

266

235

190

368

536

20202021202220232024

149

121

116

214

346

20202021202220232024

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 202413

Note: Total Group figures are for the three months ended 31 October. This includes continuing and discontinued operations

©FONTERRA
(749)

(918)

(1,247)

(648)

(589)

20202021202220232024

178

250

190

368

608

20202021202220232024

61

134

116

214

418

20202021202220232024

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 202414

Note: Total Group figures are for the three months ended 31 October. This includes continuing and discontinued operations

1.Refer to glossary for definition

©FONTERRAQUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 2024
1.Current full season forecast

•Season to date collections June –October

were 489.4 million kgMS, 0.7% behind

last season

•The decrease in collections is due to lower

collections in the North Island partially offset

by improved collections in the South Island

•Unfavourableweather conditions in the

North Island have impacted pasture

quality and growth

•Favourable weather conditions in the

South Island have resulted in strong

milk flows in the central south

•On-farm costs remain elevated, putting

pressure on margins for some farmers and

influencing spending decisions

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay

2021/22

2022/23

2023/24

2021/221,478m (down 4.0%)

80m litres

2022/231,480m (up 0.1%)

78m litres

2023/241,465m

1

(down 0.1%)

76m litres

15

©FONTERRAQUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 202416
Represents the channel of branded consumer products, such as powders,

yoghurts, milk, butter, and cheese.

means operations of the Group that are not discontinued operations.

represents core operating functions including New Zealand milk

collectionand processing operations and assets, supply chain, Group IT

andSustainability; Fonterra Farm Source™retail stores; and the Strategy

andOptimisationfunction.

Is calculated as profit after tax attributed to equity holders of the Co-

operative divided by the weighted average number of shares on issue for

the period.

means a component of the Group that is classified as held for sale (or has

been sold) and represents, or is part of a single co-ordinatedplan to dispose

of, a separate major line of business or geographical area of operations, or

is a subsidiary acquired exclusively with a view to resale.

Is profit before net finance costs and tax

Means the average price paid by Fonterra for each kilogram of milk solids

(kgMS) supplied by Fonterra’s farmer shareholders under Fonterra’s

standard terms of supply. The season refers to the 12-month milk season of

1 June to 31 May. The Farmgate Milk Price is set by the Board, based on

the recommendation of the Milk Price Panel. In making that

recommendation, the Panel provides assurance to the Board that the

Farmgate Milk Price has been calculated in accordance with the Farmgate

Milk Price Manual.

Represents the channel selling to businesses that cater for out-of-home

consumption; restaurants, hotels, cafés, airports, catering companies etc.

The focus is on customers such as; bakeries, cafés, Italian restaurants, and

global quick-service restaurant chains. High performance dairy ingredients

including whipping creams, mozzarella, cream cheese and butter sheets,

are sold alongside our business solutions under the Anchor Food

Professionals brand.

Is the total of net cash flows from operating activities and net cash flows

from investing activities.

©FONTERRAQUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 202417
Represents the channel comprising bulk and specialty dairy products such

as milk powders, dairy fats, cheese and proteins manufactured in New

Zealand, Australia, Europe and Latin America, or sourced through our global

network, and sold to food producers and distributors.

Means kilograms of milk solids, the measure of the amount of fat and

protein in the milk supplied to Fonterra.

means all NZ milk solids processed by Core Operations, except for

Reference Commodity Products.

means adjustments made for certain transactions that meet the

requirements of the Group’s NormalisationPolicy. These transactions are

typically unusual in size and nature. Normalisationadjustments are made to

assist users in forming a view of the underlying performance of the

business. Normalisedis used to indicate that a measure or sub-total has

been adjusted for the impacts of normalisationadjustments. E.g.

‘NormalisedEBIT’.

refers to the difference in the weighted average price (in USD) between the

Co-op’s Reference Product portfolio and Non-reference Product portfolio.

The difference between these two weighted average prices is a key driver of

the Co-op’s gross margin.

Fonterra has three product channels, Ingredients, Foodservice and

Consumer.

is commodity specifications of the five Reference Commodity Products

(RCPs) which are Whole Milk Powder (WMP) and Skim Milk Powder (SMP),

and their by-products Butter, Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) and Buttermilk

Powder (BMP). These commodity groups are included in the calculation of

the Farmgate Milk Price.

New Zealand: A period of 12 months from 1 June to 31 May

Australia: A period of 12 months from 1 July to 30 June.

Is used to indicate that a measure or sub-total comprises continuing,

discontinued operations and non-controlling interests. E.g. ‘Total Group

EBIT’.

©FONTERRA
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements, financial targets and ambitions (“Forward Statements”), each of which is based on a range of

assumptions.None of the Forward Statements is intended as a forecast, estimate or projection of the outcome that will, or is likely to, eventuate.They should not

be taken as forecasts or a guarantee of returns to shareholders.

There can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the Forward Statements relate. Our ability to achieve the outcomes described in the

Forward Statements is subject to a number of assumptions, each of which could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results

expressed or implied by such Forward Statements.

The Forward Statements also involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially

different from the events or results expressed or implied by such Forward Statements.Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not

all within the control of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited (“Fonterra”) and its subsidiaries (the “Fonterra Group”) and cannot be predicted by the Fonterra Group.

The Forward Statements in this presentation reflect views held only at the date of this presentation.

While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this presentation, none of Fonterra, the Fonterra Group, or any of their respective subsidiaries,

affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (together “Relevant Persons”) makes any representation or gives any

assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this presentation or the likelihood of fulfilment of any Forward Statement or any

outcomes expressed or implied in any Forward Statement.Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, none of the Relevant Persons accepts any liability

whether direct or indirect, express or implied, contractual, tortious, statutory or otherwise, in respect of any Forward Statements or for any loss, howsoever arising,

from the use of this presentation.

Statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

Except to the extent (if any) as required by applicable law or any applicable Listing Rules (including the Fonterra Shareholders’ Market Rules), the Relevant Persons

disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update any information in this presentation.

This presentation does not constitute investment advice or opinions, or an inducement, recommendation or offer to buy or sellany securities in Fonterra or the

Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund.

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 202418

©FONTERRA
Fonterra uses several non-GAAP measures when discussing financial performance. Non-GAAP measures are not defined or specified byNZ IFRS.

Management believes that these measures provide useful information as they provide valuable insight on the underlying performance of the business. They may be

used internally to evaluate the underlying performance of business units and to analyse trends. These measures are not uniformlydefined or utilisedby all

companies. Accordingly, these measures may not be comparable with similarly titled measures used by other companies. Non-GAAP financial measures should not

be viewed in isolation nor considered as a substitute for measures reported in accordance with NZ IFRS. Non-GAAP measures are not subject to audit unless they

are included in Fonterra’s audited annual financial statements.

Please refer to the Glossary for definitions of non-GAAP measures referred to by Fonterra.

QUARTER ONE BUSINESS UPDATE 202419

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