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Global Dairy Update January 2024

Operational Update31 January 2024FSFConsumer Staples

• Fonterra to install its first electrode boiler at Edendale to
reduce emissions.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand and Australia monthly

production increased. US and EU monthly

production decreased.

• Australia and EU monthly exports

increased. New Zealand and US monthly

exports decreased.

• Latin America, Asia and Middle East & Africa

monthly imports increased. China monthly

imports decreased.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections in

December were 176.6 million kgMS, 1.5%

ahead of December last season.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections in

December were 10.8 million kgMS, 1.3%

behind December last season.

• Fonterra launches a unique hybrid emissions reduction

solution in Palmerston North.

Key Dates

21 March 2024

FY24 Interim Results

Announcement

December to February 2024

Application period to

supply Fonterra

May 2024

FY24 Q3 Business Update

JANUARY 2024

%
%

%%

%

%

%

%

Change for December 2023

compared to December 2022

Change for December 2023

compared to December 2022

Change for November 2023

compared to November 2022

Change for November 2023

compared to November 2022

Change for the 12 months

to December 2023

Change for the 12 months

to December 2023

Change for the 12 months

to November 2023

Change for the 12 months

to November 2023

0.36.30.9

0.60.10.0

2.3

0.9

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand and

Australia monthly

production increased.

US and EU monthly

production decreased

New Zealand milk

production was up 0.9%

on a litres basis (up 2.6%

on milk solids basis) in

December compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was due

to favourable weather

conditions supporting

pasture growth.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to December was up

0.9% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for December, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 6.3%

in November compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was due

to favourable weather

conditions, while flooding

in November 2022 had a

negative impact.

Australia milk production

for the 12 months to

November was down 0.6%

on the previous comparable

period as there is still flood

impacted volumes in the

early months of 2023.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for December, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production¹

decreased 2.3% in November

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by Ireland, France and

the Netherlands.

EU milk production for the

12 months to November

was up 0.1% on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was driven

primarily by Germany, the

Netherlands and Poland,

partially offset by decreases

in France and Italy.

US milk production

decreased 0.3% in December

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Smaller herd numbers and

continued lower milk yield

has resulted in a fifth month

of consecutive decline in

production year‑on‑year.

Milk production for the

12 months to December

was flat.

This is mainly due to strong

production in the first half

of 2023, offset by the lower

production in the second

half of 2023.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in production –

1 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

Australia and EU monthly

exports increased.

New Zealand and US

monthly exports decreased

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased 5.3%,

or 19,756 MT, in December

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower exported volumes

of cheese to China, Japan

and Australia.

Exports for the 12 months to

December were up 5.2%, or

174,335 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly due

to higher exported volumes

of WMP and SMP to China

following the removal of

tariffs on New Zealand

milk powders.

EU dairy exports

increased 0.5%, or 2,628  MT,

in November compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to slower domestic

consumption. Exporters

shifted higher volumes of

fluid milk products and

cheese to the US and China.

This was partially offset by

lower export volumes of

infant formula.

Exports for the 12 months

to November were down

0.4%, or 29,002 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was mainly due to

lower volumes of fluid milk

products, partially offset

by higher export volumes

of SMP.

US dairy exports

decreased 6.0%, or

14,499 MT, in November

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower export volumes of

butter as higher prices over

the US autumn softened

demand for US butter.

Exports for the 12 months

to November were down

5.5%, or 158,477 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was mainly due to lower

export volumes of whey to

China and Canada, partially

offset by higher volumes

of lactose.

Australia dairy exports

increased 5.3%, or 3,209  MT,

in November compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase in exports

was mainly due to higher

export volumes of SMP and

lactose, partially offset by

lower export volumes of

sweetened milk powder and

fluid milk products.

Exports for the 12 months

to November were down

26.4%, or 229,615 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was mainly due to

lower export volumes of

fluid milk products, SMP,

and cheese and Australia’s

higher milk prices making

exports uncompetitive.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%

%

%

%

%

%

Change for December 2023

compared to December 2022

Change for November 2023

compared to November 2022

Change for November 2023

compared to November 2022

Change for November 2023

compared to November 2022

Change for the 12 months

to November 2023

Change for the 12 months

to November 2023

Change for the 12 months

to December 2023

Change for the 12 months

to November 2023

6.0

26.4

5.3

0.4

5.5

5.3

0.5

5.2

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Latin America, Asia

and Middle East &

Africa monthly imports

increased. China monthly

imports decreased

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

4.3%, or 8,335 MT, in

November compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher volumes of cheese

to Mexico and Brazil, and

whey to Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months to

November were up 7.4%, or

167,314 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to higher

volumes of WMP to Brazil,

and cheese to Mexico.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 24.2%, or

91,155 MT, in November

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher volumes of whey

to Malaysia and Vietnam,

and WMP to Thailand and

Sri Lanka.

Imports for the 12 months

to November were down

2.4%, or 124,833 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was mainly due to

lower volumes of SMP to

Philippines, and fluid milk

products to Malaysia.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 12.9%, or

57,238 MT, in November

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher volumes of WMP

to Algeria.

Imports for the 12 months to

November were up 4.8%, or

265,787 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

higher volumes of SMP to

Algeria and Iraq, and WMP

to Algeria. This was partially

offset by lower volume of

fluid milk product to Iraq

and Kuwait.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by

9.4%, or 24,848 MT, in

December compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower import volumes

of WMP and SMP. This was

partially offset by an increase

in demand for lactose

and cheese.

Imports for the 12 months

to December were down

9.6%, or 330,683 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was due to a decline in

import demand of WMP and

fluid milk products reflecting

excess domestic supply.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for November 2023

compared to November 2022

Change for December 2023

compared to December 2022

Change for November 2023

compared to November 2022

Change for November 2023

compared to November 2022

Change for the 12 months

to November 2023

Change for the 12 months

to November 2023

Change for the 12 months

to November 2023

9.424.24.3

2.44.8

%

Change for the 12 months

to December 2023

9.6

12.9

7.4

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Change for December 2023

compared to December 2022

Change for December 2023

compared to December 2022

Change for December 2023

compared to December 2022

Change for December 2023

compared to December 2022

1.33.80.21.5

0.33.22.30.1

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections

in December

were 10.8 million kgMS, 1.3%

behind December last season.

Collections decreased in

December due to lower third‑

party collections, partially

off‑set by a small increase in

off‑farm intake.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 56.8 million kgMS, 0.3%

ahead of last season.

Collections increased mainly

due to improvement of

weather patterns.

North Island milk collection

in December was 97.9 million

kgMS, 0.2% behind December

last season.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 508.8 million kgMS, 2.3%

behind last season.

North Island collections in

December 2023 were relatively

similar to December 2022, after

tracking below last season in

prior months. This was largely

due to improved weather

conditions in the Waikato.

South Island milk collection

in December was 78.8 million

kgMS, 3.8% ahead of

December last season.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 344.9 million kgMS, 3.2%

ahead of last season.

The South Island has continued

to capitalise on favourable

weather conditions which

saw all regions outperform

December last season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for December

were 176.6 million kgMS, 1.5%

ahead of December last season.

The increase was due to

continued favourable weather

conditions in the South Island.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 853.6 million kgMS, 0.1%

lower than last season.

Drier conditions are emerging

in parts of the country as

temperatures remain elevated.

%%

Forecast milk collection for the

2023/24 season

1, 4 6 5M

kgMS

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2023/24 season

NZD

per

kgMS

%

7.0 0 -

8.00

Outlook for Fonterra

in New Zealand

%

%
%%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year‑to‑date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JAN MAR

JUN

OCT

JAN MAY NOV AUG





, 

,



,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

During December, the US Federal Reserve Bank pivoted from

its bias towards tightening monetary policy and indicated

interest rate cuts could be likely during 2024. This change

was promoted by declining levels of inflation and moderation

in US economic activity. In response, future US interest rates

were repriced downward and the USD declined. The NZD/USD

exchange rate lifted to above 63 US cents late in December,

before settling back to 61 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

trading event 348

16 January 2024:

The next trading event will be held on 6 February 2024. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

3.4

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,531

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

23.1

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 4,217/MT

1.2

CHEDDAR

USD 5,908/MT

7.7

BUTTER

USD 3,341/MT

2.0

WMP

USD 5,842/MT

4.4

AMF

USD 2,636/MT

1.9

SMP

23,097

MT

LATEST AUCTION

368,572

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra to install its first electrode boiler at

Edendale to reduce emissions

In its next step to get out of

coal, Fonterra has announced

it will install a 20‑megawatt

electrode boiler at its

Edendale site in Southland.

This is another step for the

Co‑operative as it works

to get out of coal by 2037

and reduce Scope 1 and 2

emissions by 50% by 2030

(from 2018 baseline).

The forecast $36 million

investment in the electrode

boiler will reduce the

Edendale site’s emissions

by around 20% or

47,500 tonnes of CO₂e per

annum – the equivalent of

taking almost 20,000 cars

off New Zealand roads and

will reduce Fonterra’s overall

carbon emissions from its

New Zealand 2018 baseline

by nearly 3% per annum

once operational in FY25.

Fonterra Chief Operating

Officer (acting) Anna Palairet

says the team considered a

number of energy options

before deciding on the

electrode boiler.

“Fonterra has a complex

manufacturing operation

spanning the country. As

technologies develop, it’s

important we continually

assess which energy source

and technology is best for

each site.

“With up to 15 million litres

of milk being processed

at our Edendale site each

day, we need to ensure

we have a secure energy

supply that can meet

processing demands.

“Cost is also an important

consideration. Getting out

of coal requires significant

investment and we need

to choose the best option

that reduces emissions and

operational complexity while

also doing what’s best for our

farmer shareholders.”

Fonterra is partnering

with Meridian Energy for

the electricity supply who

generate electricity from

100% renewable resources –

wind, water and sun.

"Energy contributes around

40% of Aotearoa's total

gross emissions and process

heat makes up a third of this

country's energy use. So, it

makes sense for Meridian

to work with big industry

to switch energy sources to

clean energy alternatives”

says Meridian Chief

Executive Neal Barclay.

“We congratulate Fonterra

for taking this step given the

significance and scale of their

operations. Partnerships like

these are critical to helping

this country meet the target

of net zero carbon emissions

by 2050."

Work to reduce

emissions associated

with manufacturing:

• The Electric Boiler Project

is being co‑funded as

part of a previously

announced EECA (Energy

Efficiency and Conservation

Authority) partnership.

The partnership involves

Fonterra achieving

approximately 2.1 million

tonnes of earlier

CO₂e reductions by

undertaking a range of

decarbonisation projects at

its manufacturing sites.

• Fonterra expects to further

reduce its emissions

through a combination of

energy efficiency initiatives

and switching fuels at its

six manufacturing sites that

will still be using coal in

2024, and ultimately stop

using coal by 2037.

• Fonterra’s Waitoa

manufacturing site is now

using around 50% less coal

as its new wood biomass

boiler is operational.

This makes it the third

Fonterra manufacturing

site to reduce coal use in

2023. The biomass boiler

will reduce the site’s

annual emissions by at

least 48,000 tonnes of

CO₂e, the equivalent of

taking 20,000 cars off

New Zealand’s roads.

• Fonterra is in the process of

converting the coal boilers

at its Hautapu site to wood

pellets. Once complete this

year, the Hautapu site will

reduce its carbon emissions

by a forecast 15,785 tonnes

per annum ‑ the equivalent

of taking about 6,500 cars

off New Zealand’s roads.

• The Stirling wood biomass

boiler now has fully

renewable thermal energy

for its process heat.

Changing to this boiler will

reduce the annual carbon

emissions by 18,500 tonnes

– the equivalent of taking

approximately 7,700 cars

off New Zealand’s roads.

• In 2020, the Te Awamutu

manufacturing site

converted its coal boiler

to wood pellets, reducing

the Co‑op’s national

coal consumption by

9%, reducing more than

84,000 tonnes of carbon

emissions per year – the

same as taking 32,000 cars

off the road.

• In 2018, the Brightwater

site near Nelson switched

to co‑firing biomass,

helping reduce CO₂e

emissions by 25%, or

the equivalent of taking

530 cars off the road.

Our Co-op
8

Fonterra launches a

unique hybrid emissions

reduction solution in

Palmerston North

Fonterra has recently

commissioned their first

high temperature heat pump

and solar thermal plant

combination at the Fonterra

Brands New Zealand

Palmerston North

manufacturing site, where

much of the fresh white

milk for the North Island

is produced.

The heat pump converts

excess heat from chillers

and compressors into a

heat source. This reduces

the natural gas required by

the site and is expected to

remove 495 tonnes CO₂e

annually – the equivalent of

taking 140 cars off the road.

This marks the fourth site

within a year to upgrade

energy infrastructure to

help Fonterra reach its

scope 1 and 2 target of 50%

emissions reduction by 2030

(from a 2018 baseline).

Fonterra Palmerston

North Site Manager

Graham Thomson says,

“We’re really excited about

this unique combination

of a commercial heat

pump and solar thermal

plant helping us reduce

our gas consumption and

emissions output.”

The project received

co‑funding from the Energy

Efficiency Conservation

Authority’s Government

Investment in Decarbonising

Industry (GIDI) fund and

will help inform future

decarbonisation projects

at Fonterra.

Further information

on Fonterra’s

decarbonisation efforts

We expect to reduce our

emissions further through

a combination of energy

efficiency initiatives and

switching fuels at our six

manufacturing sites that still

use coal and ultimately stop

using coal by 2037.

We’re in the process of

converting the coal boilers

at the Hautapu site to wood

pellets. Once complete this

year the Hautapu site will

reduce our carbon emissions

by a forecast 15,785 tonnes

per annum – the equivalent

of taking about 6,500 cars

off New Zealand’s roads.

The Stirling wood

biomass boiler has been

commissioned, moving

the site to fully renewable

thermal energy for its

process heat. Changing to

this boiler will reduce the

annual carbon emissions

by 18,500 tonnes – the

equivalent of taking

approximately 7,700 cars off

New Zealand’s roads.

The new Waitoa wood

biomass boiler is now

operational and will reduce

the site’s annual carbon

emissions by approximately

48,000 tonnes, the

equivalent of taking

approximately 20,000 cars

off New Zealand’s roads.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s



















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year‑on‑year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to November; New Zealand and US to December.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to November; New Zealand to December.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to November; and China to December.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

10

Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

DECEMBER

2023

DECEMBER


2022

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2023/24

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

176.6174.01.5%853.6854.8(0.1%)

North Island97.998.1(0.2%)508.8520.8(2.3%)

South Island78.875.93.8%344.9334.13.2%

Australia10.811. 0(1.3%)56.856.70.3%

2023/24 Season

Forecast Farmgate

Milk Price (FGMP)

Update

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

FGMP (NZD)

NZD/USD RATE AT

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

AVERAGE

CONVERSION

RATE FOR

2023/24

SEASON

PERCENTAGE

OF FORECAST

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

EXPOSURE

FOR 2023/24

SEASON

HEDGED

PERCENTAGE

OF FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

OPTION

COVER

REMAINING

IN HEDGED

AMOUNT

RANGE MID-

POINT

7 December 2023$7.00‑

$8.00

$7.500.61440.613784%18%

9 October 2023$6.50‑

$8.00

$7.250.59680.609377%22%

As at the most recent update to the 2023/24 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price on

7 December 2023:

• Fonterra hedged approximately 84% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the

2024 season Farmgate Milk Price.

• Of that 84%, approximately 18% was hedged with foreign exchange options which have not yet

expired or been exercised.

• If the remaining 16% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 7 December

2023 spot rate of 0.6144, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2024 season would

be 0.6137.

• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous update to

the 2023/24 season Forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 9 October 2023.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN OCT

FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC

JUN

,
,

,

,

,
,

,

,
,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

11


Supplementary Information

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year‑to‑date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(16 JANUARY 2024)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

23,097368,572

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(24.4%)10.2%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,5313,197

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

3.5%(14.2%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

3.4%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

12
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non‑Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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