Air New Zealand/Announcement
Air New Zealand logo

Air New Zealand Investor Update (Op Stats) – January 2024

Operational Update18 February 2024AIRIndustrials

1


Contents

• January 2024 traffic highlights and commentary

• Operating statistics table

• Recent market announcements



January 2024 Commentary


• The overall increase in Group capacity was largely driven by resumption of the international

network following the full re-opening of New Zealand’s borders post-Covid. Long-haul

international ASKs increased 21.4%, short-haul international ASKs increased 15.4%, while

domestic ASKs were down slightly (4.1%) compared to last year.

• The decline in Group YTD RASK compared to the prior year was driven by the significant

mix change for the 2024 financial year to date, whereby long-haul capacity growth and load

factors were substantially higher relative to short-haul.

• Short-haul YTD RASK, which includes the Domestic, Tasman and Pacific islands networks

declined 6.6% compared to last year. This was driven by a Tasman and Pacific islands YTD

RASK decline, offset by a small increase in Domestic YTD RASK despite a yield decline

from higher loads. It should be noted that the prior comparative period for domestic included

the Auckland flood event which had significant impact on revenue

• Long-haul YTD RASK declined 15.9% driven by both North American and Asian routes.

Intense international competition features heavily in the current trading environment,

particular for North America. US competitors have not yet returned to China at scale, and

for now have directed some of that additional capacity to the New Zealand market, putting

pressure on yields.

• As previously disclosed in market announcements dated 12 October 2023 and 13 December

2023, it is expected that approximately $45 million in Covid-related credits will be applied to

passenger revenue in the 2024 interim financial results. These credits are not allocated to

a particular route group in this document and therefore are not included within the Jan YTD

operating statistics information provided on page 2.















19 February 2024


2



January 2024 highlights



















Group traffic summaryJANUARYFINANCIAL YTD

FY24 FY23% *20242023% *+

Passengers carried (000)1,2551,1974.9%9,6069,1495.5%

Revenue Passenger Kilometres(m)2,7702,5229.9%20,23815,76229.0%

Available Seat Kilometres (m)3,3012,86715.1%24,70617,99337.9%

Passenger Load Factor (%)83.9%87.9%(4.0 pts)81.9%87.6%(5.7 pts)

Year-to-date RASK

1

vs 2023vs 2023

Group

(15.7%)(15.9%)

Short Haul(6.7%)(6.6%)

Long Haul(16.3%)(17.0%)

% change in reported

RASK (incl. FX)

% change in reported

RASK (excl. FX)

1 Reported RASK (unit passenger revenue per available seat kilometre) is inclusive of foreign currency impact, and underlying

RASK excludes foreign currency impact.

* % change is based on numbers prior to rounding

Please note that the available seat kilometre (capacity) numbers included in the tables within this disclosure do not include

any cargo-only flights. This is because these capacity numbers are used to calculate passenger load factors and passenger

RASK

+ The month to date percentage movements have been adjusted on a daily weighted average basis. The adjustment takes into account

the difference in days for the accounting month of July 2022 (31 days) compared with July 2023 (30 days). This is because Air New

Zealand operates on a 4,4,5 accounting calendar but closes the annual accounts on 30 June.


3



Operating statistics table



GroupJANUARY

FINANCIAL YTD

FY24 FY23% *20242023% *+

Passengers carried (000)1,2551,197

4.9%

9,6069,149

5.5%

Revenue Passenger Kilometres(m)2,7702,5229.9%20,23815,76229.0%

Available Seat Kilometres (m)3,3012,867

15.1%24,706

17,99337.9%

Passenger Load Factor (%)83.9%87.9%(4.0 pts)81.9%87.6%(5.7 pts)

Short Haul TotalJANUARYFINANCIAL YTD

FY24

FY23

% *

20242023% *+

Passengers carried (000)1,1051,0624.1%8,4668,4181.1%

Revenue Passenger Kilometres(m)1,2731,1659.3%9,0038,4906.5%

Available Seat Kilometres (m)1,463

1,3538.1%10,7139,75210.4%

Passenger Load Factor (%)87.0%

86.1%0.9 pts84.0%87.1%(3.1 pts)

DomesticJANUARYFINANCIAL YTD

FY24 FY23% *2024

2023% *+

Passengers carried (000)771

770

0.1%6,2306,449(2.9%)

Revenue Passenger Kilometres(m)4164160.1%3,2423,367(3.3%)

Available Seat Kilometres (m)486507(4.1%)

3,8383,887(0.8%)

Passenger Load Factor (%)85.7%82.0%3.7 pts84.5%

86.6%(2.1 pts)

Tasman / PacificJANUARYFINANCIAL YTD

FY24

FY23

% *20242023% *+

Passengers carried (000)33429214.6%2,236

1,96914.1%

Revenue Passenger Kilometres(m)85774914.4%5,761

5,12313.0%

Available Seat Kilometres (m)977

846

15.4%6,8755,86517.8%

Passenger Load Factor (%)87.7%88.5%(0.8 pts)83.8%

87.4%(3.6 pts)

Long Haul TotalJANUARYFINANCIAL YTD

FY24

FY23

% *

20242023% *+

Passengers carried (000)15013510.9%

1,14073156.8%

Revenue Passenger Kilometres(m)1,4971,35710.4%11,2357,27255.2%

Available Seat Kilometres (m)1,838

1,514

21.4%13,9938,24170.6%

Passenger Load Factor (%)81.5%89.6%(8.1 pts)80.3%88.2%(7.9 pts)

As i aJANUARYFINANCIAL YTD

FY24 FY23% *20242023

% *+

Passengers carried (000)745925.9%59730795.4%

Revenue Passenger Kilometres(m)66452526.5%5,2492,71894.0%

Available Seat Kilometres (m)780

59331.6%6,2853,145100.7%

Passenger Load Factor (%)85.2%88.6%(3.4 pts)83.5%86.4%(2.9 pts)

Americas / UKJANUARYFINANCIAL YTD

FY24 FY23% *20242023% *+

Passengers carried (000)7676(0.6%)543

424

28.8%

Revenue Passenger Kilometres(m)

833

832

0.2%

5,9864,554

32.1%

Available Seat Kilometres (m)1,05892114.9%7,7085,09652.0%

Passenger Load Factor (%)78.7%90.3%(11.6 pts)77.7%89.4%(11.7 pts)

* % change is based on numbers prior to rounding

+ The year to date percentage movements have been adjusted on a daily weighted average basis. The adjustment takes into account the difference in

days for the accounting month of July 2022 (31 days) compared with July 2023 (30 days). This is because Air New Zealand operates on a 4,4,5

accounting calendar but closes the annual accounts on 30 June.

Air New Zealand operates primarily in one segment, its primary business being the transportation of passengers and cargo on an integrated network

of scheduled airline services to, from and within New Zealand. The following operational data and statistics is additional supplementary information

only.


4



Market Announcements

(during the period 31 January 2024 to 19 February 2024)

Air New Zealand provides full year guidance on softer 19 February 2024

forward trading conditions


On 13 December 2023, Air New Zealand updated its first half guidance and cautioned against

extrapolating that guidance to the second half. The airline expected the second half of the financial

year to be increasingly challenging given the ongoing impact of engine maintenance requirements,

economic and inflation risks, and early signs of softness in domestic demand.

The upcoming Interim financial result for the six months ended 31 December 2023 will be consistent

with that 13 December 2023 guidance.

Notwithstanding the January operating statistics which will be released today, Air New Zealand

notes that a number of economic and operational conditions have deteriorated further and are

increasingly expected to have a significant adverse impact on its performance in the second half of

the financial year. These include:

• The airline’s forward bookings profile which indicates that the increased capacity and further

pricing pressure from US carriers is expected to more adversely impact the forward revenue

performance for the remainder of the financial year.

• The cumulative impact of significant inflation on the cost base.

• Ongoing weakness in domestic corporate and government demand.

• Temporary cost headwinds to alleviate operational pressures and customer impacts from the

previously disclosed unplanned Pratt & Whitney global engine maintenance requirements.

These total approximately $35 million for the second half of the financial year and include the

cost of short-term leased aircraft and significant additional contact centre resources.

Air New Zealand will continue to assess the likely impacts and duration of these conditions and

circumstances.

Outlook

In light of these conditions, the airline considers that performance for the second half of the 2024

financial year will be markedly lower than the first half.

In this context, and assuming an average jet fuel price of USD$105/bbl for the second half, the

airline currently expects earnings before taxation for the 2024 financial year to be in the range of

$200 million to $240 million. This range includes $20 million of currently assumed additional Covid-

related credit breakage over the second half. Future redemptions of Covid-related credits remain

uncertain and subject to further actions.


The Board notes the airline’s strong liquidity position and remains committed to its Capital

Management Framework announced last August, including its ordinary dividend policy.

The airline will provide further context to the outlook when it releases its Interim results on Thursday,

22 February 2024.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.