Global Dairy Update March 2024
• On 21 March, Fonterra
announced its
2024 Interim Results.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Australia, New Zealand and US monthly
production increased. EU monthly
production decreased.
• New Zealand monthly exports
increased. Australia, EU and US monthly
exports decreased.
• Latin America and Asia monthly imports
increased. Middle East & Africa and China
monthly imports decreased.
• Fonterra's New Zealand collections for
February were 136.9 million kgMS, 5.4% higher
than last February.
• Fonterra’s Australia collections for February
were 8.3 million kgMS, 7.7% ahead of February
last season.
• Fonterra eyes Japan’s growing dairy ingredients market.
Key Dates
May 2024
FY24 Q3 Business Update
1 June 2024
Start of the 2024/25 Season
31 July 2024
End of FY24 Financial Year
MARCH 2024
For further details,
visit our website –
%%%
%%%%
%
Change for February 2024
compared to February 2023
Change for February 2024
compared to February 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for the 12 months
to February 2024
Change for the 12 months
to February 2024
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
2.25.25.6
1.00.20.2
0.7
0.9
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Australia, New Zealand and
US monthly production
increased. EU monthly
production decreased
New Zealand milk
production was up 5.6% on
a litres basis (up 6.5% on a
milk solids basis) in February
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was due to the
impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle
the same period last year and
the South Island's continued
strong milk flows this season.
New Zealand milk
production for the
12 months to February was
up 0.9% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for February, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production increased 5.2%
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The production increase was
due to favourable weather
conditions, with mild
temperatures reducing heat
stress impact.
Australia milk production
for the 12 months to January
was up 1.0% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported
for February, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production¹
decreased 0.7% in January
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Production decreased in
Germany, Ireland and the
Netherlands, partially offset
by an increase in Poland.
EU milk production for the
12 months to January was
down 0.2% on the previous
comparable period.
Production decreased in
France, Ireland and Italy,
partially offset by increases
in Germany and Poland.
US milk production
increased 2.2% in February
compared to the same period
the year prior.
USDA states the production
increase was due to 2024
being a leap year. Adjusting
for the leap year, production
is down 1.1% compared to the
same period the year prior.
This resulted in an eighth
month of consecutive decline
in production year-on-year due
to smaller herd numbers and
continued lower milk yield.
Milk production for the
12 months to February was
down 0.2% on the previous
comparable period.
This is mainly due to smaller
herd numbers and continued
lower milk yield.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand monthly
exports increased. Australia,
EU and US monthly
exports decreased
Total New Zealand dairy
exports increased 31. 7%,
or 83,141 MT, in February
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly
due to significant shipping
disruptions from Cyclone
Gabrielle last year.
Exports for the 12 months to
February were up 7.6%, or
255,868 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher export volumes
of WMP and SMP to
China as demand from
China recovered.
EU dairy exports
decreased 5.5%, or 27,744 MT,
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly
due to lower export volumes
of SMP to China. This was
partially offset by higher
export volumes of fluid milk
and cream to China, South
Korea and the Philippines,
and cheese to the US and
Saudi Arabia.
Exports for the 12 months to
January were down 0.3%, or
20,151 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was due to lower
export volume to China,
alongside shifts in processing
decisions towards other dairy
streams amidst changing
market demands.
US dairy exports
decreased 2.9%, or 6,232 MT,
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower export volumes of
non-fat dry milk to Mexico.
Exports for the 12 months to
January were down 7.8%, or
226,955 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to lower
export volumes of cheese
and WPC to Southeast Asia
and China.
Australia dairy exports
decreased 4.2%, or 2,112 MT,
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease in exports
was mainly due to lower
export volumes of fluid milk
products and SMP, partially
offset by higher export
volumes of cheese.
Exports for the 12 months to
January were down 19.7%, or
156,071 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
the disconnect between
Australia's domestic milk
price and global commodity
price, making Australian
exports less competitive.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%
%
%
Change for February 2024
compared to February 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
Change for the 12 months
to February 2024
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
2.9
19.7
31.7
0.3
7.8
4.2
5.5
7.6
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Latin America and
Asia monthly imports
increased. Middle East &
Africa and China monthly
imports decreased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
9.3%, or 17,058 MT, in January
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes
of cheese by Mexico and
fluid milk products by the
Dominican Republic.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were up 9.3%, or
212,190 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher import volumes of
WMP by Brazil, and cheese
and SMP from the US by
Mexico, mainly due to the
current stronger buying
power of the Peso.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 13. 2%, or 50,270 MT,
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes of
SMP from New Zealand by
Indonesia, due to lower prices
compared to last year, and
fluid milk products by the
Philippines and Taiwan.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were up 0.8%, or
39,181 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to higher
import volumes of whey
and lactose by Vietnam.
This was partially offset
by lower volumes of SMP
to Philippines.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 0.2%, or 1,005 MT,
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly
due to lower volumes of
fluid milk products by Libya
and Kenya. This was partially
offset by higher volumes
of SMP by Egypt and
Saudi Arabia.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were up 3.0%, or
166,670 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher volumes of SMP by
Algeria, Saudi Arabia and
Iraq. This was partially offset
by lower volumes of fluid
milk products by Kuwait.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
14.1%, or 35,740 MT, in
February compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower import volumes
of SMP and whey as China
demand fluctuates.
Imports for the 12 months to
February were down 4.9%, or
156,005 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was due to a decline in
import demand of fluid milk
products, infant formula
and WMP reflecting excess
domestic supply.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%%%
%%
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for February 2024
compared to February 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
14.113.29.3
0.83.0
%
Change for the 12 months
to February 2024
4.9
0.2
9.3
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 29 February
Season-to-date
1 June to 29 February
Season-to-date
1 June to 29 February
Season-to-date
1 June to 29 February
Change for February 2024
compared to February 2023
Change for February 2024
compared to February 2023
Change for February 2024
compared to February 2023
Change for February 2024
compared to February 2023
7.710.80.95.4
1.24.12.40.2
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections
in February were
8.3 million kgMS, 7.7% ahead of
February last season.
Collections increased in
February due to summer
rainfall in eastern and northern
Victoria, alongside access to
lower-priced irrigation water in
these regions.
Season-to-date collections
were 74.8 million kgMS, 1.2%
ahead of last season.
North Island milk
collections in February were
71. 9 million kgMS, 0.9% ahead
of February last season.
The increase was due to the
impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle
in the same period last year.
Farmers are using more
supplementary feed as pasture
conditions decline heading into
colder weather.
Season-to-date collections
were 666.4 million kgMS, 2.4%
behind last season.
South Island milk
collections in February were
65.0 million kgMS, 10.8% ahead
of February last season.
The increase was due to
continued favourable weather
conditions which saw all
regions outperform February
last season.
Season-to-date collections
were 482.6 million kgMS, 4.1%
ahead of last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections in February were
136.9 million kgMS, 5.4% ahead
of February last season.
The increase was due to the
impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle
in the same period last year,
continued strong milk flows in
the South Island and reduction
in heat stress as temperatures
return to historical averages
across the country.
Season-to-date collections
were 1,149.0 million kgMS,
0.2% higher than last season.
%%
Forecast milk collection for the
2023/24 season
1, 4 6 5M
kgMS
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2023/24 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
7. 5 0 -
8.10
Outlook for Fonterra
in New Zealand
%
For the period 1 June 2023
to 31 January 2024, off-GDT
sales have contributed
approximately 4 cents per
kgMS to the Farmgate Milk
Price for the 2023/24 season.
%
%%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
FEB APR AUG DEC MAR JUN JAN SEP
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
Volatility across financial markets, including foreign exchange,
continued to decline over the past month as investors
entertained the idea of ‘no-landing’ for the US economy –
where inflation returns to within the US Federal Reserve’s
target band, while growth continues to expand and labour
markets remain relatively firm. The NZD/USD exchange rate
traded within a narrow range of 60.5 to 62 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
trading event 352
19 March 2024:
The next trading event will be held on 2 April 2024. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
3.7
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,578
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
18.0
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 2,526/MT
4.3
SMP
USD 6,794/MT
2.4
AMF
USD 4,192/MT
2.0
CHEDDAR
USD 6,433/MT
0.4
BUTTER
USD 3,139/MT
4.3
WMP
17,979
MT
LATEST AUCTION
450,621
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
Our Co-op
7
Fonterra eyes Japan’s
growing dairy
ingredients market
Japanese consumers pay
a premium for food that
contain ingredients that
support health. The Co-op
says they can pay up to
50% more for foods with
functional claims.
“Functional ingredients
do well in Japan and
Fonterra has a clear
competitive advantage in
the space. It’s our sonzai-igi
– our reason for being,” says
Kunimoto-san, Fonterra’s
new President for its North
Asia business, comprising
Japan and Korea.
Demand for Fonterra dairy
ingredients is underpinned
by Japan’s demand for
functional foods, or food that
contain added nutrients that
benefit health.
Kunimoto-san says Fonterra’s
dairy ingredients have always
been part of this trend and
the Co-op’s whey protein
isolate (WPI), whey protein
concentrate (WPC) and milk
protein concentrate (MPC)
are in demand as a result.
“Fonterra’s dairy ingredients
have been quietly at the
forefront of the revolution,
helping to deliver benefits
from satiety to longevity for
consumers to live happier,
healthier lives,” he says.
There’s a reason the world
looks to Japan for inspiration
in functional foods – foods
that offer health benefits
beyond basic nutrition. Japan
is home to some of the
world’s longest living people
with 90,500 centenarians
(people over the age of 100).
By 2030, 1 in 3 people here
will be over the age of 65.
This drives dynamic
innovation in active aging
and a strong demand for
products that support
well-being, mobility and
combat cognitive decline.
Foods with functional claims
typically retail at 1.5 times
the price of ordinary foods.
Products like yoghurt
containing probiotics,
vitamins and minerals can be
found in any of the country’s
convenience store.
Functional ingredients as
innovative differentiator
Kunimoto-san says, “Topping
the list is protein, and it
would seem the more
protein you can include
into a product, the better,”
he says.
But taste remains
fundamental for
Japanese consumers.
“No matter how good a
product may be for you, if
it doesn’t taste right, it’s
probably not going to cut it”.
“Our ingredients are ideal
because there’s little or
no compromise on taste,
appearance, or quality’’.
To meet customer
requirements, Fonterra
actively works with technical
experts in market and
Fonterra Research and
Development Centre (FRDC).
The collaboration extends to
having a Fonterra resource at
customers’ R&D centres and
having customer presence at
FRDC to jointly develop the
next big idea.
Examples of product
applications include
Fonterra’s MPC, WPC, and
WPI used high protein
beverage and WPC in milk
flavour protein powder.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB
JAN
DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
8
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to January; New Zealand and US to February.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to January; New Zealand to February.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to January; China to February.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
9
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
FEBRUARY
2024
FEBRUARY
2023
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2023/24
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
136.9130.05.4%1,149.01,146.20.2%
North Island71. 971.30.9%666.4682.7(2.4%)
South Island65.058.710.8%482.6463.54.1%
Australia8.37.77.7%74.873.91.2%
2023/24 season
forecast Farmgate
Milk Price (FGMP)
update
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
FGMP (NZD)
NZD/USD RATE AT
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
CONVERSION
RATE FOR
2023/24
SEASON
PERCENTAGE
OF FORECAST
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
FOR 2023/24
SEASON
HEDGED
PERCENTAGE
OF FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
OPTION
COVER
REMAINING
IN HEDGED
AMOUNT
RANGE MID-
POINT
21 March 2024$7.50-
$8.10
$7.800.60820.612592%17%
12 February 2024$7.30-
$8.30
$7.800.61500.613690%19%
As at the most recent update to the 2023/24 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price dated
21 March 2024:
• Fonterra had hedged approximately 92% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the
2023/24 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price.
• Of that 92%, approximately 17% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet
expired or been exercised.
• If the remaining 8% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 21 March 2024
spot rate of 0.6082, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2024 season would
be 0.6125.
• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous update to
the 2023/24 season Forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 12 February 2024.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR JAN OCT
FEB JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC
JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(19 MARCH 2024)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
17,979450,621
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
(28.4%)1.7%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,5783,284
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
5.4%(10.3%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(3.7%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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