Fonterra Shareholders' Fund logo

Global Dairy Update March 2024

Operational Update28 March 2024FSFConsumer Staples

• On 21 March, Fonterra
announced its

2024 Interim Results.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Australia, New Zealand and US monthly

production increased. EU monthly

production decreased.

• New Zealand monthly exports

increased. Australia, EU and US monthly

exports decreased.

• Latin America and Asia monthly imports

increased. Middle East & Africa and China

monthly imports decreased.

• Fonterra's New Zealand collections for

February were 136.9 million kgMS, 5.4% higher

than last February.

• Fonterra’s Australia collections for February

were 8.3 million kgMS, 7.7% ahead of February

last season.

• Fonterra eyes Japan’s growing dairy ingredients market.

Key Dates

May 2024

FY24 Q3 Business Update

1 June 2024

Start of the 2024/25 Season

31 July 2024

End of FY24 Financial Year

MARCH 2024

For further details,

visit our website –

%%%
%%%%

%

Change for February 2024

compared to February 2023

Change for February 2024

compared to February 2023

Change for January 2024

compared to January 2023

Change for January 2024

compared to January 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2024

Change for the 12 months

to February 2024

Change for the 12 months

to January 2024

Change for the 12 months

to January 2024

2.25.25.6

1.00.20.2

0.7

0.9

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Australia, New Zealand and

US monthly production

increased. EU monthly

production decreased

New Zealand milk

production was up 5.6% on

a litres basis (up 6.5% on a

milk solids basis) in February

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was due to the

impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle

the same period last year and

the South Island's continued

strong milk flows this season.

New Zealand milk

production for the

12 months to February was

up 0.9% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for February, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 5.2%

in January compared to the

same period the year prior.

The production increase was

due to favourable weather

conditions, with mild

temperatures reducing heat

stress impact.

Australia milk production

for the 12 months to January

was up 1.0% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for February, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production¹

decreased 0.7% in January

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Production decreased in

Germany, Ireland and the

Netherlands, partially offset

by an increase in Poland.

EU milk production for the

12 months to January was

down 0.2% on the previous

comparable period.

Production decreased in

France, Ireland and Italy,

partially offset by increases

in Germany and Poland.

US milk production

increased 2.2% in February

compared to the same period

the year prior.

USDA states the production

increase was due to 2024

being a leap year. Adjusting

for the leap year, production

is down 1.1% compared to the

same period the year prior.

This resulted in an eighth

month of consecutive decline

in production year-on-year due

to smaller herd numbers and

continued lower milk yield.

Milk production for the

12 months to February was

down 0.2% on the previous

comparable period.

This is mainly due to smaller

herd numbers and continued

lower milk yield.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand monthly

exports increased. Australia,

EU and US monthly

exports decreased

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased 31. 7%,

or 83,141 MT, in February

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to significant shipping

disruptions from Cyclone

Gabrielle last year.

Exports for the 12 months to

February were up 7.6%, or

255,868 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

higher export volumes

of WMP and SMP to

China as demand from

China recovered.

EU dairy exports

decreased 5.5%, or 27,744  MT,

in January compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly

due to lower export volumes

of SMP to China. This was

partially offset by higher

export volumes of fluid milk

and cream to China, South

Korea and the Philippines,

and cheese to the US and

Saudi Arabia.

Exports for the 12 months to

January were down 0.3%, or

20,151 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was due to lower

export volume to China,

alongside shifts in processing

decisions towards other dairy

streams amidst changing

market demands.

US dairy exports

decreased 2.9%, or 6,232 MT,

in January compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower export volumes of

non-fat dry milk to Mexico.

Exports for the 12 months to

January were down 7.8%, or

226,955 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to lower

export volumes of cheese

and WPC to Southeast Asia

and China.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 4.2%, or 2,112 MT,

in January compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease in exports

was mainly due to lower

export volumes of fluid milk

products and SMP, partially

offset by higher export

volumes of cheese.

Exports for the 12 months to

January were down 19.7%, or

156,071 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

the disconnect between

Australia's domestic milk

price and global commodity

price, making Australian

exports less competitive.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%

%

%

Change for February 2024

compared to February 2023

Change for January 2024

compared to January 2023

Change for January 2024

compared to January 2023

Change for January 2024

compared to January 2023

Change for the 12 months

to January 2024

Change for the 12 months

to January 2024

Change for the 12 months

to February 2024

Change for the 12 months

to January 2024

2.9

19.7

31.7

0.3

7.8

4.2

5.5

7.6

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Latin America and

Asia monthly imports

increased. Middle East &

Africa and China monthly

imports decreased

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

9.3%, or 17,058 MT, in January

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher import volumes

of cheese by Mexico and

fluid milk products by the

Dominican Republic.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were up 9.3%, or

212,190 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

higher import volumes of

WMP by Brazil, and cheese

and SMP from the US by

Mexico, mainly due to the

current stronger buying

power of the Peso.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 13. 2%, or 50,270  MT,

in January compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher import volumes of

SMP from New Zealand by

Indonesia, due to lower prices

compared to last year, and

fluid milk products by the

Philippines and Taiwan.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were up 0.8%, or

39,181 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to higher

import volumes of whey

and lactose by Vietnam.

This was partially offset

by lower volumes of SMP

to Philippines.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 0.2%, or 1,005 MT,

in January compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly

due to lower volumes of

fluid milk products by Libya

and Kenya. This was partially

offset by higher volumes

of SMP by Egypt and

Saudi Arabia.

Imports for the 12 months to

December were up 3.0%, or

166,670 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

higher volumes of SMP by

Algeria, Saudi Arabia and

Iraq. This was partially offset

by lower volumes of fluid

milk products by Kuwait.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by

14.1%, or 35,740 MT, in

February compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower import volumes

of SMP and whey as China

demand fluctuates.

Imports for the 12 months to

February were down 4.9%, or

156,005 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was due to a decline in

import demand of fluid milk

products, infant formula

and WMP reflecting excess

domestic supply.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%%%

%%

Change for January 2024

compared to January 2023

Change for February 2024

compared to February 2023

Change for January 2024

compared to January 2023

Change for January 2024

compared to January 2023

Change for the 12 months

to January 2024

Change for the 12 months

to January 2024

Change for the 12 months

to January 2024

14.113.29.3

0.83.0

%

Change for the 12 months

to February 2024

4.9

0.2

9.3

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 29 February

Season-to-date

1 June to 29 February

Season-to-date

1 June to 29 February

Season-to-date

1 June to 29 February

Change for February 2024

compared to February 2023

Change for February 2024

compared to February 2023

Change for February 2024

compared to February 2023

Change for February 2024

compared to February 2023

7.710.80.95.4

1.24.12.40.2

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections

in February were

8.3 million kgMS, 7.7% ahead of

February last season.

Collections increased in

February due to summer

rainfall in eastern and northern

Victoria, alongside access to

lower-priced irrigation water in

these regions.

Season-to-date collections

were 74.8 million kgMS, 1.2%

ahead of last season.

North Island milk

collections in February were

71. 9 million kgMS, 0.9% ahead

of February last season.

The increase was due to the

impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle

in the same period last year.

Farmers are using more

supplementary feed as pasture

conditions decline heading into

colder weather.

Season-to-date collections

were 666.4 million kgMS, 2.4%

behind last season.

South Island milk

collections in February were

65.0 million kgMS, 10.8% ahead

of February last season.

The increase was due to

continued favourable weather

conditions which saw all

regions outperform February

last season.

Season-to-date collections

were 482.6 million kgMS, 4.1%

ahead of last season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections in February were

136.9 million kgMS, 5.4% ahead

of February last season.

The increase was due to the

impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle

in the same period last year,

continued strong milk flows in

the South Island and reduction

in heat stress as temperatures

return to historical averages

across the country.

Season-to-date collections

were 1,149.0 million kgMS,

0.2% higher than last season.

%%

Forecast milk collection for the

2023/24 season

1, 4 6 5M

kgMS

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2023/24 season

NZD

per

kgMS

%

7. 5 0 -

8.10

Outlook for Fonterra

in New Zealand

%

For the period 1 June 2023

to 31 January 2024, off-GDT

sales have contributed

approximately 4 cents per

kgMS to the Farmgate Milk

Price for the 2023/24 season.

%
%%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

FEB APR AUG DEC MAR JUN JAN SEP





,

, 

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

Volatility across financial markets, including foreign exchange,

continued to decline over the past month as investors

entertained the idea of ‘no-landing’ for the US economy –

where inflation returns to within the US Federal Reserve’s

target band, while growth continues to expand and labour

markets remain relatively firm. The NZD/USD exchange rate

traded within a narrow range of 60.5 to 62 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

trading event 352

19 March 2024:

The next trading event will be held on 2 April 2024. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

3.7

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,578

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

18.0

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 2,526/MT

4.3

SMP

USD 6,794/MT

2.4

AMF

USD 4,192/MT

2.0

CHEDDAR

USD 6,433/MT

0.4

BUTTER

USD 3,139/MT

4.3

WMP

17,979

MT

LATEST AUCTION

450,621

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

Our Co-op
7

Fonterra eyes Japan’s

growing dairy

ingredients market

Japanese consumers pay

a premium for food that

contain ingredients that

support health. The Co-op

says they can pay up to

50% more for foods with

functional claims.

“Functional ingredients

do well in Japan and

Fonterra has a clear

competitive advantage in

the space. It’s our sonzai-igi

– our reason for being,” says

Kunimoto-san, Fonterra’s

new President for its North

Asia business, comprising

Japan and Korea.

Demand for Fonterra dairy

ingredients is underpinned

by Japan’s demand for

functional foods, or food that

contain added nutrients that

benefit health.

Kunimoto-san says Fonterra’s

dairy ingredients have always

been part of this trend and

the Co-op’s whey protein

isolate (WPI), whey protein

concentrate (WPC) and milk

protein concentrate (MPC)

are in demand as a result.

“Fonterra’s dairy ingredients

have been quietly at the

forefront of the revolution,

helping to deliver benefits

from satiety to longevity for

consumers to live happier,

healthier lives,” he says.

There’s a reason the world

looks to Japan for inspiration

in functional foods – foods

that offer health benefits

beyond basic nutrition. Japan

is home to some of the

world’s longest living people

with 90,500 centenarians

(people over the age of 100).

By 2030, 1 in 3 people here

will be over the age of 65.

This drives dynamic

innovation in active aging

and a strong demand for

products that support

well-being, mobility and

combat cognitive decline.

Foods with functional claims

typically retail at 1.5 times

the price of ordinary foods.

Products like yoghurt

containing probiotics,

vitamins and minerals can be

found in any of the country’s

convenience store.

Functional ingredients as

innovative differentiator

Kunimoto-san says, “Topping

the list is protein, and it

would seem the more

protein you can include

into a product, the better,”

he says.

But taste remains

fundamental for

Japanese consumers.

“No matter how good a

product may be for you, if

it doesn’t taste right, it’s

probably not going to cut it”.

“Our ingredients are ideal

because there’s little or

no compromise on taste,

appearance, or quality’’.

To meet customer

requirements, Fonterra

actively works with technical

experts in market and

Fonterra Research and

Development Centre (FRDC).

The collaboration extends to

having a Fonterra resource at

customers’ R&D centres and

having customer presence at

FRDC to jointly develop the

next big idea.

Examples of product

applications include

Fonterra’s MPC, WPC, and

WPI used high protein

beverage and WPC in milk

flavour protein powder.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB 

JAN 

DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s
















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s













AVERAGE

8


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to January; New Zealand and US to February.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to January; New Zealand to February.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to January; China to February.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

9

Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

FEBRUARY

2024

FEBRUARY


2023

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2023/24

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

136.9130.05.4%1,149.01,146.20.2%

North Island71. 971.30.9%666.4682.7(2.4%)

South Island65.058.710.8%482.6463.54.1%

Australia8.37.77.7%74.873.91.2%

2023/24 season

forecast Farmgate

Milk Price (FGMP)

update

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

FGMP (NZD)

NZD/USD RATE AT

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

AVERAGE

CONVERSION

RATE FOR

2023/24

SEASON

PERCENTAGE

OF FORECAST

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

EXPOSURE

FOR 2023/24

SEASON

HEDGED

PERCENTAGE

OF FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

OPTION

COVER

REMAINING

IN HEDGED

AMOUNT

RANGE MID-

POINT

21 March 2024$7.50-

$8.10

$7.800.60820.612592%17%

12 February 2024$7.30-

$8.30

$7.800.61500.613690%19%

As at the most recent update to the 2023/24 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price dated

21 March 2024:

• Fonterra had hedged approximately 92% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the

2023/24 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price.

• Of that 92%, approximately 17% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet

expired or been exercised.

• If the remaining 8% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 21 March 2024

spot rate of 0.6082, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2024 season would

be 0.6125.

• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous update to

the 2023/24 season Forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 12 February 2024.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR JAN OCT

FEB JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC

JUN

,
,

,

,

,
,

,

,
,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(19 MARCH 2024)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

17,979450,621

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(28.4%)1.7%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,5783,284

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

5.4%(10.3%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(3.7%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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