MLN – March 2024 Quarterly Newsletter
1
The global stock market rally broadens out
Marlin ended the quarter with gross performance up 17.0% and
an adjusted NAV return of +15.6%, compared with our global
benchmark which was up 9.6%.
While 2023 stock market returns were driven primarily by tech
(the Nasdaq was +56% vs the S&P500 equal weighted +11%)
and especially the Magnificent 7 (Meta, Amazon, Alphabet,
Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple and Tesla), 2024 returns have been
driven by a much broader mix of stocks. The Nasdaq is up 10%,
less than the S&P500. And the Magnificent 7 is only up 8%!
Globally, banks and industrial companies are up as much or
more than tech. This is healthy.
This broadening out of the stock market rally has been at least
partially driven by an ongoing lift in global economic growth
expectations. That improvement has primarily been driven by
the US - US economists started this year thinking US growth
for 2024 would be around 1%. Now that’s at 2.2% and still
climbing.
Portfolio update
Meta (+37%) continued its recent track record of delivering
stronger than expected earnings results. Meta’s short-form
video format Reels has been a headwind to revenue growth
as it was being introduced but has now turned into a tailwind
as the company ramps up monetisation. Meta’s investment in
AI capabilities has driven more user time spent on its Family
of Apps and delivered more efficient advertising tools for its
customers. 2023 was Meta’s “year of efficiency”, and Meta has
executed very well with operating income margins expanded
from 25% in 2022 to 35% in 2023. Importantly, the company
signalled this cost control will continue as a more streamlined
company makes decision making quicker and more effective.
Meta initiated its first dividend which sent a positive signal to
investors that while Meta continues to invest for growth (i.e. the
metaverse), it will be measured.
Edwards Lifesciences (+25%) benefited from a series of
positive announcements during the quarter. Firstly, one of
Edwards’ competitors announced a delay in its anticipated
entry into the US transcatheter aortic valve replacement
(TAVR) market. Edwards is the global leader in replacement
aortic heart valves, with around 70% market share in the US.
The competitive delay highlights the challenges in replicating
Edwards’s strong clinical outcomes, given the company’s market
leading innovation; and surgeon experience, as Edwards’s
valves have effectively been the standard of care for over a
decade. The second announcement was the early approval of
Edwards’ tricuspid heart valve replacement system. This device
is the first of its kind and opens up a new treatment for a largely
untreated population of patients with tricuspid regurgitation.
Icon (+19%), the leading clinical research organisation (CRO),
was among our best performers for the quarter, after a positive
earnings result and management commentary on end-market
demand gave the market confidence around medium-term
growth prospects. The positive tone from management was a
turnaround from a more cautious view in early January, which
saw CRO stocks fall circa 10%. Icon’s new project pipeline
continues to grow, driven by strong underlying R&D spend in its
large pharmaceutical customer base; a slow but steady recovery
in biotech demand; and new business wins driving market share
gains.
Tencent (+3%) underperformed despite a 10% return in March.
Sentiment on the Chinese economy remains an overhang,
however Tencent outperformed most of its Chinese tech
peers during the quarter. Tencent’s video gaming segment
(around 30% company revenue) continues to see soft demand,
but Tencent’s new growth businesses continue to beat
expectations. Tencent is still in the early stages of monetising its
more than one billion WeChat users in China, through avenues
such as short-video advertising (like Meta Reels), ecommerce,
and financial services. In addition to driving revenue growth,
these businesses also have high profit margins and are
increasing Tencent’s overall profitability.
Dollar Tree (-6%) declined following a disappointing earnings
result. The core Dollar Tree banner continues to grow ahead
of expectations. But it is still facing some headwinds from a
struggling low-income consumer and increased investment as it
continues to rollout several growth initiatives to drive continued
market share gains. This was overshadowed by the announced
closure of up to 1,000 Family Dollar stores (circa 13% of the
store base). While management is working on several initiatives
to improve the Family Dollar stores, it decided these 1,000
mostly unprofitable stores would not generate an acceptable
return. We think the company is taking the right actions. While
we are more measured than management on its ability to turn
the Family Dollar business around, we think the market is now
ascribing almost zero probability of a successful turnaround.
¹
Share price discount to NAV (using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
as at 31 March 2024
1 January 2024 – 31 March 2024
MLN NAVDISCOUNT
1
$
1.076.7
%$
1.00
Share Price
QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER
PERFORMANCE
as at 31 March 2024
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity brief. The information
and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute
professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter
contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
Headquarters Company
%
Holding
China
Tencent Holdings3.8%
Ireland
Icon5.3%
United Kingdom
Greggs Plc4.4%
United States
Alphabet7.1%
Amazon.Com8.7%
Boston Scientific4.6%
Danaher Corporation3.9%
Dollar General2.2%
Dollar Tree2.0%
Dexcom Inc3.5%
Edwards Lifesciences Corp.5.6%
Floor & Décor Holdings5.9%
Gartner Inc4.6%
Intuitive Surgical Inc2.5%
Mastercard5.4%
Meta Platforms Inc6.0%
Microsoft6.6%
MSCI Inc2.8%
Netflix3.1%
salesforce.com5.8%
UnitedHealth Group Inc4.2%
Equity Total98.0%
New Zealand dollar cash0.5%
Total foreign cash2.5%
Cash Total3.0%
Forward Foreign Exchange(1.0%)
TOTAL100.0%
PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS
SUMMARY
as at 31 March 2024
COMPANY NEWS
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at enquire@marlin.co.nz
Dividend Paid 28 March 2024
A dividend of 1.86 cents per share was paid to Marlin
shareholders on 28 March 2024, under the quarterly distribution
policy. Interest in Marlin’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)
remains high with 39% of shareholders participating in the plan.
Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount to
market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please
contact our share registrar, Computershare on 09 488 8777.
3 Months
3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+8.4%(1.2%)+13.7%
Adjusted NAV Return +15.6%+4.5%+12.0%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return+17.0%+6.6%+15.1%
Benchmark Index¹+9.6%+7.5%+10.7%
1
Benchmark index : S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (hedged 50% to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance
return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital
allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV value,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and
currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price
performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to
shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan,
and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder
return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP measures are
described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at
marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE
QUARTER IN LOCAL CURRENCY
META
PLATFORMS
+37
%
EDWARD
LIFESCIENCES
+25
%
NETFLIX
+25
%
AMAZON
+19
%
ICON
+19
%
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Ltd
12 April 2024
Portfolio activity
We continued to add to our positions in Intuitive Surgical and
Dexcom. Intuitive received FDA approval for its next generation
da Vinci 5 soft-tissue surgical robot which will improve
ergonomic comfort for surgeons and will measure the force
surgeons are putting on tissue real time to reduce tissue trauma.
Dexcom received US FDA approval for Stelo, its first continuous
glucose monitoring (CGM) device for non-insulin using diabetics.
This further lengthens the growth runway for Dexcom. The
company has dominated the CGM market for more acute
(intensive insulin usage) Type 1 and Type 2 diabetics. And it
has been increasingly turning its attention to the much bigger
Type 2 non-intensive insulin market and now the non-insulin
market. These less acute markets are 10-20 times the size of its
traditional markets and are much less penetrated.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.