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Macquarie Australia Conference

Investor Presentation7 May 2024CENUtilities

1
1

Macquarie Australia

Conference

May 2024

22
Disclaimer and important information

While all reasonable care has been taken in compiling this presentation,

neither Contact nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any

other person gives any representation as to the accuracy or completeness

of this information or accepts any liability for any errors or omissions.

This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with

respect of a variety of matters. All such forward-looking statements involve

known and unknown risks, significant uncertainties, assumptions,

contingencies, and other factors, many of which are outside the control of

Contact, which may cause the actual results or performance of Contact to

be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or

implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking

statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Except as

required by law or regulation (including the NZX Listing Rules and the ASX

Listing Rules), Contact undertakes no obligation to update these forward-

looking statements for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to

the date of this presentation or to update or keep current any of the

information contained herein. Any estimates or projections as to events that

may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net

income and performance) are based upon the best judgement of Contact

from the information available as of the date of this presentation.

EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash flow are financial measures that are “non-GAAP (generally

accepted accounting practice) financial information” under Guidance Note 2017: ‘Disclosing non-GAAP

financial information’ published by the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority, “non-IFRS financial

information” under ASIC Regulatory Guide 230: ‘Disclosing non-IFRS financial information’ and “non-GAAP

financial measures” within the meaning of Regulation G under the U.S. Exchange Act of 1934.

Such financial information and financial measures (including EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash

flow) do not have standardised meanings prescribed under New Zealand equivalents to International Financial

Reporting Standards (“NZ IFRS”), Australian Accounting Standards (“AAS”) or International Financial

Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and therefore, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by

other entities, and should not be construed as an alternative to other financial measures determined in

accordance with NZ IFRS, AAS or IFRS accounting practice) measures. Information regarding the usefulness,

calculation and reconciliation of these measures is provided in the supporting material.

This presentation does not constitute financial or investment advice. This presentation does not constitute an

offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, Contact securities and may not be relied on in connection with

any purchase of a Contact security.

Numbers in the presentation have not all been rounded and might not appear to add.

All references to $ are New Zealand dollar unless stated otherwise.

Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company,

product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names,

trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and

reflects public announcements of intention only.

33
Presenters

Dorian Devers

Chief Financial Officer

Dorian joined Contact in December 2018 as Contact’s Chief Financial Officer.

Dorian is experienced in business transformations having led successful turnarounds of businesses in both the UK and

South Africa. He has successfully delivered several acquisitions including ones in the Australian and New Zealand energy

sector. He has governance experience having served on the Board of Afrox, a publicly listed company and the largest

industrial gases business in Africa, as well as being a previous Board member of Liquigas, a New Zealand LPG

infrastructure business.

Mike Fuge

Chief Executive Officer

Mike Fuge was appointed CEO in September 2019 and joined Contact in February 2020.

Mike was previously the chief executive of Refining New Zealand and has a long history in the energy sector, both in New

Zealand and internationally. He has previously been the chief executive of global renewable energy owner operator and

developer Pacific Hydro in Australia and held senior roles at Genesis Energy and Royal Dutch Shell Group.

3

4
Contact is one of New Zealand’s

most significant companies

All figures at 30 June 2023 or for FY23

~20% market share in electricity generation and retail

Owner-operator of low-cost, long-life renewable generation assets

Developing its consented geothermal options

86%

renewable

generation

5-year

average

5

geothermal

stations

2

hydro

stations

1

controlled

storage lake

3

thermal

peaking

stations

8.4TWh

5-year

average

generation

Long term

contract for gas storage

2,239

Bondholders

59k

shareholders

589k

customer

connections

1,242

employees

73

community

organisations

supported

55
Tauhara

Commissioning

underway

5 year average generationbystationandtype (FY19-FY23)

1

3,908GWh

1,252GWh

Roxburgh (320MW)

Clyde(464MW)

2,161

1,746

Hydro

TeRapaand

Whirinaki(199MW)

Stratford–Peakers

(202MW)

Stratford–CCGT

(377MW)

Contact has a diversified and resilient portfolio of

generation assets

GeothermalThermal

8.4TWh

average

generated

271

212

769

TeHuka(27MW)181

Ohaaki(41MW)319

Poihipi(53MW)340

Wairākei(124MW)

1,034

TeMihi(155MW)1,361

3,234GWh

~1,870

Under construction

1

Numbers shown are net capacity.

2

Total generation at Te Rapa includes both spot and direct sales.

Whereweare

Geothermal

Note: Contact closed its gas-fired co-generation plant at Te Rapa in 30 June 2023 as planned

x2

Tauhara:

First synchronisation to

the grid, 6

th

May 2024

66
New Government, change in some policy levers:

Net Zero 2050 imperative for NZ remains

•Declining performance of NZ’s natural gas fields.

•Indigenous capacity and flexibility limited.

•Fuel Security Study to begin later in 2024.

•Contact transitioning from gas reliance + investigating renewable flex.

Fuel security

Looking ahead: Topical regulatory matters

Lines assets

regulation /

investment

Fast track

consenting

•BCG report noted 30% increase in spend required on distribution

infrastructure in 2026-30 relative to 2021-25.

•Draft decision on 2025-30 lines asset revenue caps from Commerce

Commission in May 2024 (final November 2024). Material increase in

lines charges reflecting increased WACC is expected.

•Balance required: Crucial investment / Consumer impact.

•Strengthened fast track consenting Bill has been tabled for consultation.

•Will play crucial role to meet infrastructure challenges of decarbonizing NZ

economy.

•Contact is engaging with Fast Track Advisory Group and reviewing

development options for inclusion. As a long-term partner, community

engagement remains central to Contact’s approach.

New Government: Energy policy headlines

➢“Project Onslow cancelled”

➢“Review of ETS stopped”

➢“GIDI

1

fund cancelled”

➢“Clean car discounts removed”

➢“Electric vehicles to pay Road User Charges”

➢“Offshore oil and gas exploration ban lifted”

➢“Net Zero 2050 commitment reiterated”

➢“Focus on doubling renewable energy by 2050”

➢“Accelerate EV infrastructure investment”

Changes to

policy levers

as anticipated

Net Zero

imperative

remains

Stable

regulatory

environment

1

Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry fund.

77
Sources: New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2021 snapshot, 2023 Inventory,

Te Rārangi Haurehu Kati Mahana a Aotearoa 1990-2021 - He whakarāpopoto New Zealand

1

Based on the average of Contact’s published greenhouse gas data (FY18 to FY21)

Electrification will reduce carbon emissions

With New Zealand's high renewable penetration, electricity is the solution to reducing carbon emissions, not the problem

Government’s

first Emissions

Reduction Plan

Renewable electricity as

% of total energy use:

2022

2035

The Climate Change Commission expects electricity demand to

grow to meet climate targets Electricity demand, TWh

1

Source: Climate Change Commission 2021 (Demonstration case), Contact Energy analysis

Key

drivers

201020152020202520302035

0

40

5

35

45

50

55

0%

~40%

EVs

~40%

industry

~20%

buildings

Meaningful reductions in carbon emissions

are possible with renewable electricity

displacing carbon intensive fuels

Greenhouse gas

emissions by sector

(Greenhouse Gas

Inventory, 2021)

50%

29%

18.1%

49.2%

4.2%

7.2%

5.7%

8.2%

1.4%

6.0%

transport

agriculture

waste

other

energy

electricity

manufacturing

& construction

fugitive

emissions

industrial

& production

76.8

MtC0

2

e

~1.8%

1

76.8

MtC0

2

e

8
Our strategy to lead NZ’s decarbonisation

Enablers

Transformative ways of working:

create a flexible and high-performing

environment for New Zealand’s top talent

Outcomes

Growth

Pivot our business to a new growth era that

captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation

Resilience

Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,

aligned with our ESG commitment

Performance

Realise a step-change in performance, materially

growing EBITDAF through strategic investments

Strategic

theme

Objective

Grow

demand

Attract new industrial demand with

globally competitive renewables

Grow renewable

development

Build renewable generation and

flexibility on the back of new demand

Decarbonise

our portfolio

Lead an orderly transition

to renewables

Create outstanding

customer experiences

Create NZ's leading energy and services

brand to meet more of our customers’ needs

Operational excellence:

continuously improving our operations

through innovation and digitisation

ESG: create long-term value through our strong

performance across a broad set of environmental,

social and governance factors

9
Demand growth sources are materialising

High value

demand sources:

Large scale

data centres

Major industrial

energy users

Green

chemicals

Industrial

process

heat

Road

transport

»Constructive negotiations with Rio Tinto have re-enforced

Contact’s long-held view that NZAS appears likely to stay.

»Contact expects a new agreement to be long-term; at a

fair price, materially above currentpricing; and including

demand response (dry-year riskmitigation).

»Negotiations complex; multiple stakeholders.

~70MW

~180MW

~150MW

Operating

Under construction

Planned (disclosed)

»Limited disclosure on current utilisation and

planned capacity.

»Some operational centres have indicated they are

now at >70% utilisation.

»Utilisation rate to ramp up over time.

NZ Steel - Electric Arc Furnace:

•Expected online late 2025. Contact supplying 30MW

•Demand response: Off-peak winter structure

Primary sector:

•~60MW of electrode boilers committed in last few

years (mainly meat and dairy)

1

Based on public disclosures from T4, CDC, NextDC, Microsoft, DCI, Spark, AWS. Disclosures are limited, particularly on the full capacity under construction and planned.

2

Residential demand growth normalised for weather. Source EMI 2018-2023. Has been masked by industrial closures over the period.

Estimated Auckland data centre capacity

1

New Zealand Aluminium Smelter (NZAS)

•~13% of electricity demand

•Existing contract ends 31 Dec 2024

•Major exporter

•Carbon efficient, premium aluminium

•Large employer in Southland economy

A new long-term deal would create market certainty,

de-risking investment in new renewable generation

»Current market activity (including active RFPs)

indicates decarbonisation will continue post-GIDI.

»Hundreds of MW of fossil fuelled boilers yet to be

displaced. Increasingly seen as a ‘must-do’.

»Multiple opportunities under development to bridge

the conversion from fossil fuels. Includes demand

response and flexible fuel switching.

Conversions that include demand response

contribute to security of supply in peak periods

As new demand materialises it will add to a strong underlying base. New Zealand has seen

residential demand growth of ~1.5% over the last 4 years

2

adding ~30MW p.a. to demand peaks.

Attractive counterparties with large baseload

profiles. Large future potential driven by AI

10
On track on the pathway we set in May 2023:

Net Zero for Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2035

Note: Net Zero analysis is based on FY22 actual scope 1 and 2 emissions (effectively a mean hydro year for Contact). Utilisation of the peakers will vary over future years depending on hydro sequences and new technologies.

1

Includes expected units from Drylandcarbon One Limited Partnership and Forest Partners Limited Partnership. Units are shown per annum and illustrated based on information current at May 2023. May fluctuate based on climate conditions and/or

regulatory updates.

788

92

FY22 scope 1

& 2 emissions

New emissions

(Tauhara & Te

Huka unit 3)

-207

-287

Long term thermal

strategy implemented

-184

Capturing or

reinjecting carbon

-179

Forestry partners

units received

1


Additional initiatives

being assessed

-189

Current emission

breakdown

(ktCO

2

e)

Decarbonisation

pathway

(ktCO

2

e)

TCC

Te Rapa

(closed June 2023)

SBTI FY26 target

648 ktCO

2

e

Contact’s Net Zero pathway as set in May 2023

Set and illustrated based

on FY22 emissions

(effectively a mean hydro

year for Contact)

Te Rapa closed as planned 30 June 2023.

Expect to close TCC at end of 2024.

Te Huka C0

2

reinjection operational.

Preparing for 2024 FID on C0

2

commercialisation.

Preparing for 2024 FID on 100MW battery.

Progress on key initiatives





In-year carbon emission outcomes will be

influenced by hydrology conditions.

Results from Net Zero initiatives

will be clear over time.

11
589,000

customer

connections

Expanding telecommunications

Growing time of use plans

Telco connections

Rapidly

building scale

and market

share in

broadband

Enabling in-

home demand

flex will create

value and lower

peak demand

26,000

51,000

71,000

86,000

Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Jun-23Jun-24

(expected)

102,000

+41%

CAGR

Electricity

19%

Gas

26%

Broadband

~5%

1

Mobile

new

591k

customer

connections

Contact’s

products

market share

16,000

41,000

75,000

Dec-21Dec-22Dec-23

+117%

Customers on time of use plans

Dec 23

Scaled retail footprint across NZ, with further growth

opportunities in adjacent products and services

Retail energy margins remain challenging in the near term as we navigate the cost of transition

Expanding data

connectivity

with Contact

Mobile

Broadband

Mobile

1

Extrapolated from June 2023 data.

* Illustrates compound annual growth rate

*

*

* Illustrates compound annual growth rate

Proposition innovation helping lead New

Zealand homes to a better energy future

Hot Water

Sorter

Development of nationwide EV charging

partnership to support customers through

their energy transition

Contact’s Hot Water Sorter,

flexing demand to improve

management of peak load

Tailored energy wellbeing initiatives,

supporting customers facing energy

hardship

OOH EV

Charging

Energy

Wellbeing

12
Contact is preparing for further investment

in renewable generation and storage

Geothermal generation potential (TWh p.a.)

Note: All new generation projects, other than Tauhara and Te Huka 3, remain subject to Final Investment Decisions.

Solar under development

Consented

Consenting in progress

Under construction

Kowhai Park

0.3TWh solar

Southland

0.9 -1.2TWh wind

Glorit

0.3TWh solar

Stratford

100MW battery

0.3TWh solar

Glenbrook

100MW battery

Tauhara 1.4TWh

Te Huka 3 0.4TWh

GeoFuture 0.4TWh

(potential net of

Wairākei)

Tauhara ~0.7TWh

(remaining)

Wind under development

Land access securedConsenting underwayConsented

4TWh

1TWh

Geothermal

Under construction

Remaining consented

Current

generation

(mean)

1.4

Tauhara

0.4

Te Huka 3Current +

under

construction

0.4

GeoFuture

(net of

Wairākei

retirement)

0.7

Tauhara

(remaining)

6.3

Potential

under current

consents

3.3

5.2

6.3

+3.0

13
Rising LRMCs of intermittent renewables as

capital costs continue to increase

20232024

Observed LRMCs for intermittent renewables

1

$/MWh

75

90

80

95

80

95

85

100

1

Figures are based on point-in time observations of representative projects and funding assumptions. These are nominal and not rebased for historical inflation. Solar includes benefits from project financing in 2023 and 2024.

•Continued uplift observed in the LRMCs of intermittent renewables.

•Impacted by elevated cost of capital and higher building costs (including from

the impact of a softer NZD).

•Capital costs have continued to escalate over the last year:

•Cost pressures for wind turbines have seen capital costs increase.

•While the cost of solar modules is declining, domestic costs are up.

•A narrowing of the gap between wind and solar LRMCs has also been

observed. Partly driven by inclusion of benefits from project financing as

planning for solar has advanced.

•LRMC as a comparator of opportunities is highly limited and doesn’t account for

the strategic benefits and challenges associated with each technology or

individual project:

•Solar: Benefited by speed-to-market and predictability. Correlation is a

challenge at higher rates of penetration.

•Wind: Geographic diversity results in relatively favorable GWAP/TWAP

ratios over time as market penetration increases. Can achieve large

scale. Takes longer to bring new wind generation to market.

65

75

75

85

~2021

Wind

Solar

+5

+5

+10

14
Future landscape for capital allocation: A change in

investment merit order for new renewable flexibility

Sources of new renewable flexibility

Changing value rankings of renewable investments

Highest

value

Lowest

value

FromTo

Geothermal

Geothermal

New intermittent

renewables

New renewable

flexibility

New renewable

flexibility

New

intermittent

renewables

Grid scale

batteries

Demand

response

Biomass

Hydro

consenting

Pumped

hydro

All uncertain (either flexibility or cost)

Increasing value of renewable flexibility

15
Further substitution of gas generation for low cost

geothermal to drive near term EBITDAF uplift

1

Underlying EBITDAF excludes non-cash accounting item: onerous contract provision expense of $113m.

2

Expected EBITDAF was updated in February 2024. Does not include any impact from the assessment of economic benefits of the costs capitalised to the Tauhara project. This assessment will be complete by the finalisation of FY24 results.

3

Refers to capacity and output expected to be achieved after the first planned outage in 2025. Initial capacity of at least 152MW is expected at online date.

4

Calendar year references.

5

Long run wholesale price expectation as indicated in November 2022, updated for inflation. Range is 2024 real.

480

520

550

553

546

FY21FY22

573

1

FY23

600

2

FY24

Actual result delivered

Guidance (normalised and expected at beginning of the year)

EBITDAF Guidance vs Actual ($m)

»Strong track record of delivering performance above guidance

»Hydrology swing of +/-$50m EBITDAF remains

Geothermal plants coming online in FY25

Tauhara

»174MW capacity

3

»1.4TWh output

3

»Online Q3 2024

4

Te Huka 3

»51.4MW capacity

»0.4TWh output

»Online Q4 2024

4

Illustrative new geothermal plant EBITDAF contribution

(Indicative only - not plant specific)

Incremental capacity

Achieved wholesale price

5


Marginal cost

EBITDAF contribution p.a.

50MW

$110-120/MWh (2024 real)

~$15/MWh (2024 real)

~$40-45m

Contact is expecting benefits realisation from Tauhara and Te Huka 3 as they come online in FY25

225MW capacity / 1.8TWh output / 95% capacity factor

Updated to

$620m in Feb 2024.

Since then, actual

performance per

operating reports has

exceeded

expectations.

16
16

Questions

Representatives from tangata whenua joined the Tauhara team to mark the first turning of the turbine

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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