Macquarie Australia Conference
1
1
Macquarie Australia
Conference
May 2024
22
Disclaimer and important information
While all reasonable care has been taken in compiling this presentation,
neither Contact nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any
other person gives any representation as to the accuracy or completeness
of this information or accepts any liability for any errors or omissions.
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with
respect of a variety of matters. All such forward-looking statements involve
known and unknown risks, significant uncertainties, assumptions,
contingencies, and other factors, many of which are outside the control of
Contact, which may cause the actual results or performance of Contact to
be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or
implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking
statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Except as
required by law or regulation (including the NZX Listing Rules and the ASX
Listing Rules), Contact undertakes no obligation to update these forward-
looking statements for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to
the date of this presentation or to update or keep current any of the
information contained herein. Any estimates or projections as to events that
may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net
income and performance) are based upon the best judgement of Contact
from the information available as of the date of this presentation.
EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash flow are financial measures that are “non-GAAP (generally
accepted accounting practice) financial information” under Guidance Note 2017: ‘Disclosing non-GAAP
financial information’ published by the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority, “non-IFRS financial
information” under ASIC Regulatory Guide 230: ‘Disclosing non-IFRS financial information’ and “non-GAAP
financial measures” within the meaning of Regulation G under the U.S. Exchange Act of 1934.
Such financial information and financial measures (including EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash
flow) do not have standardised meanings prescribed under New Zealand equivalents to International Financial
Reporting Standards (“NZ IFRS”), Australian Accounting Standards (“AAS”) or International Financial
Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and therefore, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by
other entities, and should not be construed as an alternative to other financial measures determined in
accordance with NZ IFRS, AAS or IFRS accounting practice) measures. Information regarding the usefulness,
calculation and reconciliation of these measures is provided in the supporting material.
This presentation does not constitute financial or investment advice. This presentation does not constitute an
offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, Contact securities and may not be relied on in connection with
any purchase of a Contact security.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been rounded and might not appear to add.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollar unless stated otherwise.
Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company,
product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names,
trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and
reflects public announcements of intention only.
33
Presenters
Dorian Devers
Chief Financial Officer
Dorian joined Contact in December 2018 as Contact’s Chief Financial Officer.
Dorian is experienced in business transformations having led successful turnarounds of businesses in both the UK and
South Africa. He has successfully delivered several acquisitions including ones in the Australian and New Zealand energy
sector. He has governance experience having served on the Board of Afrox, a publicly listed company and the largest
industrial gases business in Africa, as well as being a previous Board member of Liquigas, a New Zealand LPG
infrastructure business.
Mike Fuge
Chief Executive Officer
Mike Fuge was appointed CEO in September 2019 and joined Contact in February 2020.
Mike was previously the chief executive of Refining New Zealand and has a long history in the energy sector, both in New
Zealand and internationally. He has previously been the chief executive of global renewable energy owner operator and
developer Pacific Hydro in Australia and held senior roles at Genesis Energy and Royal Dutch Shell Group.
3
4
Contact is one of New Zealand’s
most significant companies
All figures at 30 June 2023 or for FY23
~20% market share in electricity generation and retail
Owner-operator of low-cost, long-life renewable generation assets
Developing its consented geothermal options
86%
renewable
generation
5-year
average
5
geothermal
stations
2
hydro
stations
1
controlled
storage lake
3
thermal
peaking
stations
8.4TWh
5-year
average
generation
Long term
contract for gas storage
2,239
Bondholders
59k
shareholders
589k
customer
connections
1,242
employees
73
community
organisations
supported
55
Tauhara
Commissioning
underway
5 year average generationbystationandtype (FY19-FY23)
1
3,908GWh
1,252GWh
Roxburgh (320MW)
Clyde(464MW)
2,161
1,746
Hydro
TeRapaand
Whirinaki(199MW)
Stratford–Peakers
(202MW)
Stratford–CCGT
(377MW)
Contact has a diversified and resilient portfolio of
generation assets
GeothermalThermal
8.4TWh
average
generated
271
212
769
TeHuka(27MW)181
Ohaaki(41MW)319
Poihipi(53MW)340
Wairākei(124MW)
1,034
TeMihi(155MW)1,361
3,234GWh
~1,870
Under construction
1
Numbers shown are net capacity.
2
Total generation at Te Rapa includes both spot and direct sales.
Whereweare
Geothermal
Note: Contact closed its gas-fired co-generation plant at Te Rapa in 30 June 2023 as planned
x2
Tauhara:
First synchronisation to
the grid, 6
th
May 2024
66
New Government, change in some policy levers:
Net Zero 2050 imperative for NZ remains
•Declining performance of NZ’s natural gas fields.
•Indigenous capacity and flexibility limited.
•Fuel Security Study to begin later in 2024.
•Contact transitioning from gas reliance + investigating renewable flex.
Fuel security
Looking ahead: Topical regulatory matters
Lines assets
regulation /
investment
Fast track
consenting
•BCG report noted 30% increase in spend required on distribution
infrastructure in 2026-30 relative to 2021-25.
•Draft decision on 2025-30 lines asset revenue caps from Commerce
Commission in May 2024 (final November 2024). Material increase in
lines charges reflecting increased WACC is expected.
•Balance required: Crucial investment / Consumer impact.
•Strengthened fast track consenting Bill has been tabled for consultation.
•Will play crucial role to meet infrastructure challenges of decarbonizing NZ
economy.
•Contact is engaging with Fast Track Advisory Group and reviewing
development options for inclusion. As a long-term partner, community
engagement remains central to Contact’s approach.
New Government: Energy policy headlines
➢“Project Onslow cancelled”
➢“Review of ETS stopped”
➢“GIDI
1
fund cancelled”
➢“Clean car discounts removed”
➢“Electric vehicles to pay Road User Charges”
➢“Offshore oil and gas exploration ban lifted”
➢“Net Zero 2050 commitment reiterated”
➢“Focus on doubling renewable energy by 2050”
➢“Accelerate EV infrastructure investment”
Changes to
policy levers
as anticipated
Net Zero
imperative
remains
Stable
regulatory
environment
1
Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry fund.
77
Sources: New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2021 snapshot, 2023 Inventory,
Te Rārangi Haurehu Kati Mahana a Aotearoa 1990-2021 - He whakarāpopoto New Zealand
1
Based on the average of Contact’s published greenhouse gas data (FY18 to FY21)
Electrification will reduce carbon emissions
With New Zealand's high renewable penetration, electricity is the solution to reducing carbon emissions, not the problem
Government’s
first Emissions
Reduction Plan
Renewable electricity as
% of total energy use:
2022
2035
The Climate Change Commission expects electricity demand to
grow to meet climate targets Electricity demand, TWh
1
Source: Climate Change Commission 2021 (Demonstration case), Contact Energy analysis
Key
drivers
201020152020202520302035
0
40
5
35
45
50
55
0%
~40%
EVs
~40%
industry
~20%
buildings
Meaningful reductions in carbon emissions
are possible with renewable electricity
displacing carbon intensive fuels
Greenhouse gas
emissions by sector
(Greenhouse Gas
Inventory, 2021)
50%
29%
18.1%
49.2%
4.2%
7.2%
5.7%
8.2%
1.4%
6.0%
transport
agriculture
waste
other
energy
electricity
manufacturing
& construction
fugitive
emissions
industrial
& production
76.8
MtC0
2
e
~1.8%
1
76.8
MtC0
2
e
8
Our strategy to lead NZ’s decarbonisation
Enablers
Transformative ways of working:
create a flexible and high-performing
environment for New Zealand’s top talent
Outcomes
Growth
Pivot our business to a new growth era that
captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation
Resilience
Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,
aligned with our ESG commitment
Performance
Realise a step-change in performance, materially
growing EBITDAF through strategic investments
Strategic
theme
Objective
Grow
demand
Attract new industrial demand with
globally competitive renewables
Grow renewable
development
Build renewable generation and
flexibility on the back of new demand
Decarbonise
our portfolio
Lead an orderly transition
to renewables
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Create NZ's leading energy and services
brand to meet more of our customers’ needs
Operational excellence:
continuously improving our operations
through innovation and digitisation
ESG: create long-term value through our strong
performance across a broad set of environmental,
social and governance factors
9
Demand growth sources are materialising
High value
demand sources:
Large scale
data centres
Major industrial
energy users
Green
chemicals
Industrial
process
heat
Road
transport
»Constructive negotiations with Rio Tinto have re-enforced
Contact’s long-held view that NZAS appears likely to stay.
»Contact expects a new agreement to be long-term; at a
fair price, materially above currentpricing; and including
demand response (dry-year riskmitigation).
»Negotiations complex; multiple stakeholders.
~70MW
~180MW
~150MW
Operating
Under construction
Planned (disclosed)
»Limited disclosure on current utilisation and
planned capacity.
»Some operational centres have indicated they are
now at >70% utilisation.
»Utilisation rate to ramp up over time.
NZ Steel - Electric Arc Furnace:
•Expected online late 2025. Contact supplying 30MW
•Demand response: Off-peak winter structure
Primary sector:
•~60MW of electrode boilers committed in last few
years (mainly meat and dairy)
1
Based on public disclosures from T4, CDC, NextDC, Microsoft, DCI, Spark, AWS. Disclosures are limited, particularly on the full capacity under construction and planned.
2
Residential demand growth normalised for weather. Source EMI 2018-2023. Has been masked by industrial closures over the period.
Estimated Auckland data centre capacity
1
New Zealand Aluminium Smelter (NZAS)
•~13% of electricity demand
•Existing contract ends 31 Dec 2024
•Major exporter
•Carbon efficient, premium aluminium
•Large employer in Southland economy
A new long-term deal would create market certainty,
de-risking investment in new renewable generation
»Current market activity (including active RFPs)
indicates decarbonisation will continue post-GIDI.
»Hundreds of MW of fossil fuelled boilers yet to be
displaced. Increasingly seen as a ‘must-do’.
»Multiple opportunities under development to bridge
the conversion from fossil fuels. Includes demand
response and flexible fuel switching.
Conversions that include demand response
contribute to security of supply in peak periods
As new demand materialises it will add to a strong underlying base. New Zealand has seen
residential demand growth of ~1.5% over the last 4 years
2
adding ~30MW p.a. to demand peaks.
Attractive counterparties with large baseload
profiles. Large future potential driven by AI
10
On track on the pathway we set in May 2023:
Net Zero for Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2035
Note: Net Zero analysis is based on FY22 actual scope 1 and 2 emissions (effectively a mean hydro year for Contact). Utilisation of the peakers will vary over future years depending on hydro sequences and new technologies.
1
Includes expected units from Drylandcarbon One Limited Partnership and Forest Partners Limited Partnership. Units are shown per annum and illustrated based on information current at May 2023. May fluctuate based on climate conditions and/or
regulatory updates.
788
92
FY22 scope 1
& 2 emissions
New emissions
(Tauhara & Te
Huka unit 3)
-207
-287
Long term thermal
strategy implemented
-184
Capturing or
reinjecting carbon
-179
Forestry partners
units received
1
Additional initiatives
being assessed
-189
Current emission
breakdown
(ktCO
2
e)
Decarbonisation
pathway
(ktCO
2
e)
TCC
Te Rapa
(closed June 2023)
SBTI FY26 target
648 ktCO
2
e
Contact’s Net Zero pathway as set in May 2023
Set and illustrated based
on FY22 emissions
(effectively a mean hydro
year for Contact)
Te Rapa closed as planned 30 June 2023.
Expect to close TCC at end of 2024.
Te Huka C0
2
reinjection operational.
Preparing for 2024 FID on C0
2
commercialisation.
Preparing for 2024 FID on 100MW battery.
Progress on key initiatives
✓
✓
✓
✓
In-year carbon emission outcomes will be
influenced by hydrology conditions.
Results from Net Zero initiatives
will be clear over time.
✓
11
589,000
customer
connections
Expanding telecommunications
Growing time of use plans
Telco connections
Rapidly
building scale
and market
share in
broadband
Enabling in-
home demand
flex will create
value and lower
peak demand
26,000
51,000
71,000
86,000
Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Jun-23Jun-24
(expected)
102,000
+41%
CAGR
Electricity
19%
Gas
26%
Broadband
~5%
1
Mobile
new
591k
customer
connections
Contact’s
products
market share
16,000
41,000
75,000
Dec-21Dec-22Dec-23
+117%
Customers on time of use plans
Dec 23
Scaled retail footprint across NZ, with further growth
opportunities in adjacent products and services
Retail energy margins remain challenging in the near term as we navigate the cost of transition
Expanding data
connectivity
with Contact
Mobile
Broadband
Mobile
1
Extrapolated from June 2023 data.
* Illustrates compound annual growth rate
*
*
* Illustrates compound annual growth rate
Proposition innovation helping lead New
Zealand homes to a better energy future
Hot Water
Sorter
Development of nationwide EV charging
partnership to support customers through
their energy transition
Contact’s Hot Water Sorter,
flexing demand to improve
management of peak load
Tailored energy wellbeing initiatives,
supporting customers facing energy
hardship
OOH EV
Charging
Energy
Wellbeing
12
Contact is preparing for further investment
in renewable generation and storage
Geothermal generation potential (TWh p.a.)
Note: All new generation projects, other than Tauhara and Te Huka 3, remain subject to Final Investment Decisions.
Solar under development
Consented
Consenting in progress
Under construction
Kowhai Park
0.3TWh solar
Southland
0.9 -1.2TWh wind
Glorit
0.3TWh solar
Stratford
100MW battery
0.3TWh solar
Glenbrook
100MW battery
Tauhara 1.4TWh
Te Huka 3 0.4TWh
GeoFuture 0.4TWh
(potential net of
Wairākei)
Tauhara ~0.7TWh
(remaining)
Wind under development
Land access securedConsenting underwayConsented
4TWh
1TWh
Geothermal
Under construction
Remaining consented
Current
generation
(mean)
1.4
Tauhara
0.4
Te Huka 3Current +
under
construction
0.4
GeoFuture
(net of
Wairākei
retirement)
0.7
Tauhara
(remaining)
6.3
Potential
under current
consents
3.3
5.2
6.3
+3.0
13
Rising LRMCs of intermittent renewables as
capital costs continue to increase
20232024
Observed LRMCs for intermittent renewables
1
$/MWh
75
90
80
95
80
95
85
100
1
Figures are based on point-in time observations of representative projects and funding assumptions. These are nominal and not rebased for historical inflation. Solar includes benefits from project financing in 2023 and 2024.
•Continued uplift observed in the LRMCs of intermittent renewables.
•Impacted by elevated cost of capital and higher building costs (including from
the impact of a softer NZD).
•Capital costs have continued to escalate over the last year:
•Cost pressures for wind turbines have seen capital costs increase.
•While the cost of solar modules is declining, domestic costs are up.
•A narrowing of the gap between wind and solar LRMCs has also been
observed. Partly driven by inclusion of benefits from project financing as
planning for solar has advanced.
•LRMC as a comparator of opportunities is highly limited and doesn’t account for
the strategic benefits and challenges associated with each technology or
individual project:
•Solar: Benefited by speed-to-market and predictability. Correlation is a
challenge at higher rates of penetration.
•Wind: Geographic diversity results in relatively favorable GWAP/TWAP
ratios over time as market penetration increases. Can achieve large
scale. Takes longer to bring new wind generation to market.
65
75
75
85
~2021
Wind
Solar
+5
+5
+10
14
Future landscape for capital allocation: A change in
investment merit order for new renewable flexibility
Sources of new renewable flexibility
Changing value rankings of renewable investments
Highest
value
Lowest
value
FromTo
Geothermal
Geothermal
New intermittent
renewables
New renewable
flexibility
New renewable
flexibility
New
intermittent
renewables
Grid scale
batteries
Demand
response
Biomass
Hydro
consenting
Pumped
hydro
All uncertain (either flexibility or cost)
Increasing value of renewable flexibility
15
Further substitution of gas generation for low cost
geothermal to drive near term EBITDAF uplift
1
Underlying EBITDAF excludes non-cash accounting item: onerous contract provision expense of $113m.
2
Expected EBITDAF was updated in February 2024. Does not include any impact from the assessment of economic benefits of the costs capitalised to the Tauhara project. This assessment will be complete by the finalisation of FY24 results.
3
Refers to capacity and output expected to be achieved after the first planned outage in 2025. Initial capacity of at least 152MW is expected at online date.
4
Calendar year references.
5
Long run wholesale price expectation as indicated in November 2022, updated for inflation. Range is 2024 real.
480
520
550
553
546
FY21FY22
573
1
FY23
600
2
FY24
Actual result delivered
Guidance (normalised and expected at beginning of the year)
EBITDAF Guidance vs Actual ($m)
»Strong track record of delivering performance above guidance
»Hydrology swing of +/-$50m EBITDAF remains
Geothermal plants coming online in FY25
Tauhara
»174MW capacity
3
»1.4TWh output
3
»Online Q3 2024
4
Te Huka 3
»51.4MW capacity
»0.4TWh output
»Online Q4 2024
4
Illustrative new geothermal plant EBITDAF contribution
(Indicative only - not plant specific)
Incremental capacity
Achieved wholesale price
5
Marginal cost
EBITDAF contribution p.a.
50MW
$110-120/MWh (2024 real)
~$15/MWh (2024 real)
~$40-45m
Contact is expecting benefits realisation from Tauhara and Te Huka 3 as they come online in FY25
225MW capacity / 1.8TWh output / 95% capacity factor
Updated to
$620m in Feb 2024.
Since then, actual
performance per
operating reports has
exceeded
expectations.
16
16
Questions
Representatives from tangata whenua joined the Tauhara team to mark the first turning of the turbine
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- GNE — Genesis Energy Limited: Governance Roadshow Presentation2024-06-04
“Governance Roadshow June 2024 Second line can be in orange Barbara Chapman CNZM– Chairman Catherine Drayton – Director…”
- GNE — Genesis Energy Limited: H1 FY24 Conference Call Details2024-02-16
“MARKET RELEASE Date: 16 FEBRUARY 2024 NZX: GNE / ASX: GNE H1 FY24 Conference Call Details Genesis Energy ’s H1 FY24 financial results, for the six-month period ended 31 December 2023, will be announced before NZX trading begins on Thursday, 22 February 2024. A video con…”
- CHI — Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited: 2024 ASM presentation2024-04-30
“Annual Shareholders’ Meeting 2024 30 April 2024…”