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MLN - June 2024 Monthly Update

Operational Update11 June 2024MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for May was up +1.7%, while

the adjusted NAV return was up +1.4%. This compared with our

global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index

(50% hedged to NZD), which was up +2.0%.

In May, equities delivered strong returns (MSCI global equities

+4%) as the uncomfortable heat came out of the global economy

(particularly the US) and equity investors enjoyed a respite from

higher bond yields (e.g. US 10-year bond yield as proxy for global

interest rates fell -20bps).

US equity markets outperformed global (+5%), while Europe

underperformed (+3%) and emerging markets were only up 1%

(China solid, India and Brazil weaker).

Currencies moved aggressively, with the broad USD weakening

against a basket of currencies (EUR, JPY, AUD, NZD etc) for the

first time this year. The NZD bounced aggressively (+5%) driven

primarily by that broad weakening in the USD and the higher beta

nature (more volatile currency) of the NZD.

Portfolio News

Netflix’s (+17%) share price rose steadily in May after a sharp

pullback in April. Last month, the company’s solid first quarter

results were unfairly overshadowed by its announcement to stop

reporting subscriber numbers and revenue per user figures,

leading to a 9% decline in the stock price in April. Mid-May, Netflix

stated the number of users on its ad-tier had nearly doubled since

the start of the year to 40 million, which was a positive update.

This, along with positive initiation reports from analysts saw the

stock recover its April losses, finishing May at a two-year high.

Greggs (+8%) held an investor day and site visit at their Enfield

distribution and manufacturing facility in May. Management first

provided an update on their store growth opportunity. It had

previously been targeting 3k stores across the UK but now believe

it can support 3.5k stores based on population density analysis,

with potential upside to this number in the future. Management

also provided clarity on the benefits of its current elevated supply

chain investment, which has previously been a concern for

investors. The investment is not only going towards expanding

their supply chain to support Gregg’s growing store base, but

also introducing more centralisation and automation for efficiency.

Management noted that their previous supply chain consolidation

programme resulted in roughly 300bps of margin improvement in

operating costs in the subsequent years between FY16 and FY23.

All in all, this was a positive update for investors and addressed

some concerns that have been hanging over the stock.

We attended Icon’s (+9%) annual investor day during the month.

Icon reiterated the structural growth drivers underpinning the

business, including growing R&D spend on new drugs; increased

outsourcing of clinical trials to specialist Clinical Research

Organisations (CROs) such as Icon; and market share accruing

to larger CROs given the ability to invest more in technology and

other capabilities relative to smaller competitors. Icon highlighted

several aspects of these capabilities, including the investment

made in technology. The company is utilising AI and machine

learning on its large amount of proprietary and third-party data

to improve the clinical trial process for customers. For example,

Icon’s One Search product can reduce the time to identify clinical

trials sites by 53%. Given clinical trials can cost billions of dollars,

these innovations drive real cost savings for Icon’s customers, and

help strengthen Icon’s competitive position.

Dollar General (-2%) fell following its quarterly earnings, as

positive growth in customer traffic was overshadowed by ongoing

headwinds from shrink (i.e. shoplifting). Customer traffic grew

as middle-and higher-income consumers trade down to lower-

cost options like Dollar General given inflationary pressures; and

early successes from the company’s “Back to Basics” strategy to

improve the stores and supply chain. This positive traffic growth

was offset by continued headwinds from shrink, as cost of

living pressures have increased rates of shrink not just for Dollar

General, but retailers globally. While the company has several

initiatives in place to lower shrink, they may take longer than

expected to gain traction.

Salesforce (-13%) reported weaker than expected first quarter

earnings at the end of May. While software subscription

revenue was largely as expected, cRPO

2

and bookings were

unexpectedly weaker. While Salesforce maintained their full

year guidance, the guide for next quarter key growth metrics

were below expectations, bringing into question the full year

outlook. Management stated weakness in the quarter was

driven by the macro environment. They are currently seeing

deal cycles elongate, deal sizes compress, and higher levels of

budget scrutiny from customers. This all came as a surprise as

at their previous quarterly report, and throughout the quarter,

management sounded very positive and optimistic for the

year, with some expectations of potential revenue growth

reacceleration. Additionally, management couldn’t calm nerves

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

2

cRPO (current Remaining Performance Obligation) is a metric used by Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies to give investors an indication of future revenue that will come from

existing contracts over the next 12 months.

MONTHLY UPDATE

June 2024

$

1.00

Share Price

as at 31 May 2024

Warrant Price

$

0.04

DISCOUNT

1

2.0

%


MLN NAV

$

1.03

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 31 May 2024

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.02

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

215m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$215m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

about potential large-scale M&A they might do in the near future,

which is a concern investors continue to have.

Portfolio activity

In May we added ASML to our portfolio. ASML is the leading

manufacturer of lithography machines used to produce

semiconductor chips. Described by some as the most complex

machines ever built, these lithography machines can be as large

as a bus, contain over 100,000 parts and cost hundreds of

millions of dollars. ASML has 100% market share in the cutting-

edge lithography machines that are used to manufacture the

most advanced semiconductor chips such as those used in

smartphones and laptops. Advances in areas such as AI and

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 May 2024

29

%

8

%

19

%


FINANCIALS

19

%

GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT

as at 31 May 2024

6

%

WESTERN

EUROPE

87

%

NORTH

AMERICA

17

%

7

%


ASIA PACIFIC

3

%

CASH &

DERIVATIVES

HEALTH CARE

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

5

%


CONSUMER

STAPLES

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

autonomous driving will require increasing amounts of these

advanced semiconductor chips, which will drive ongoing demand

for ASML’s advanced lithography machines. While the AI spotlight

is currently on companies like Nvidia or AMD that are generating

AI revenues today, ASML’s AI revenue is currently minimal, but this

long-term structural demand for increased computing power will

underpin ASML’s revenue growth over the medium-to-longer term.

3
MAY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

(in local currency) during the month

NETFLIX

+17

%

ICON PLC

+9

%

META

PLATFORMS

+9

%

SALESFORCE

+9

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 May 2024

AMAZON

8

%

ALPHABET

7

%

MICROSOFT

7

%

FLOOR & DÉCOR

6

%

META PLATFORMS

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 16 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 May 2024

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+2.0%+1.9%+20.0%(6.3%)+12.7%

Adjusted NAV Return+1.4%(0.0%)+21.0%+1.6%+11.0%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +1.7%+0.7%+24.5%+3.4%+14.0%

Benchmark Index^+2.0%+3.1%+19.8%+6.0%+10.5%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.

INTUITIVE

SURGICAL

-13

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 May 2024

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

Share Price Total Shareholder Return

Nov

2007

Nov

2011

Nov

2013

Nov

2014

Nov

2015

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2016

Nov

2020

Nov

2012

Nov

2022

Nov

2017

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2021

Nov

2023

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised

for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on 29 April

2024

»The new warrant term offer document was sent to all

Marlin shareholders in early May 2024

»The Record Date for the issue of the new Marlin warrants

to eligible Marlin shareholders was 15 May 2024

»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders

on 16 May 2024

»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the

NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024

»The Exercise Date for the new Marlin warrants is

16 May 2025


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated

to it from the Board to invest according

to the Management Agreement

and other written policies. Marlin’s

portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds

Management Limited. Sam Dickie

(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),

and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty

(Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing the Marlin

portfolio. Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in

Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.