MLN - June 2024 Monthly Update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for May was up +1.7%, while
the adjusted NAV return was up +1.4%. This compared with our
global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was up +2.0%.
In May, equities delivered strong returns (MSCI global equities
+4%) as the uncomfortable heat came out of the global economy
(particularly the US) and equity investors enjoyed a respite from
higher bond yields (e.g. US 10-year bond yield as proxy for global
interest rates fell -20bps).
US equity markets outperformed global (+5%), while Europe
underperformed (+3%) and emerging markets were only up 1%
(China solid, India and Brazil weaker).
Currencies moved aggressively, with the broad USD weakening
against a basket of currencies (EUR, JPY, AUD, NZD etc) for the
first time this year. The NZD bounced aggressively (+5%) driven
primarily by that broad weakening in the USD and the higher beta
nature (more volatile currency) of the NZD.
Portfolio News
Netflix’s (+17%) share price rose steadily in May after a sharp
pullback in April. Last month, the company’s solid first quarter
results were unfairly overshadowed by its announcement to stop
reporting subscriber numbers and revenue per user figures,
leading to a 9% decline in the stock price in April. Mid-May, Netflix
stated the number of users on its ad-tier had nearly doubled since
the start of the year to 40 million, which was a positive update.
This, along with positive initiation reports from analysts saw the
stock recover its April losses, finishing May at a two-year high.
Greggs (+8%) held an investor day and site visit at their Enfield
distribution and manufacturing facility in May. Management first
provided an update on their store growth opportunity. It had
previously been targeting 3k stores across the UK but now believe
it can support 3.5k stores based on population density analysis,
with potential upside to this number in the future. Management
also provided clarity on the benefits of its current elevated supply
chain investment, which has previously been a concern for
investors. The investment is not only going towards expanding
their supply chain to support Gregg’s growing store base, but
also introducing more centralisation and automation for efficiency.
Management noted that their previous supply chain consolidation
programme resulted in roughly 300bps of margin improvement in
operating costs in the subsequent years between FY16 and FY23.
All in all, this was a positive update for investors and addressed
some concerns that have been hanging over the stock.
We attended Icon’s (+9%) annual investor day during the month.
Icon reiterated the structural growth drivers underpinning the
business, including growing R&D spend on new drugs; increased
outsourcing of clinical trials to specialist Clinical Research
Organisations (CROs) such as Icon; and market share accruing
to larger CROs given the ability to invest more in technology and
other capabilities relative to smaller competitors. Icon highlighted
several aspects of these capabilities, including the investment
made in technology. The company is utilising AI and machine
learning on its large amount of proprietary and third-party data
to improve the clinical trial process for customers. For example,
Icon’s One Search product can reduce the time to identify clinical
trials sites by 53%. Given clinical trials can cost billions of dollars,
these innovations drive real cost savings for Icon’s customers, and
help strengthen Icon’s competitive position.
Dollar General (-2%) fell following its quarterly earnings, as
positive growth in customer traffic was overshadowed by ongoing
headwinds from shrink (i.e. shoplifting). Customer traffic grew
as middle-and higher-income consumers trade down to lower-
cost options like Dollar General given inflationary pressures; and
early successes from the company’s “Back to Basics” strategy to
improve the stores and supply chain. This positive traffic growth
was offset by continued headwinds from shrink, as cost of
living pressures have increased rates of shrink not just for Dollar
General, but retailers globally. While the company has several
initiatives in place to lower shrink, they may take longer than
expected to gain traction.
Salesforce (-13%) reported weaker than expected first quarter
earnings at the end of May. While software subscription
revenue was largely as expected, cRPO
2
and bookings were
unexpectedly weaker. While Salesforce maintained their full
year guidance, the guide for next quarter key growth metrics
were below expectations, bringing into question the full year
outlook. Management stated weakness in the quarter was
driven by the macro environment. They are currently seeing
deal cycles elongate, deal sizes compress, and higher levels of
budget scrutiny from customers. This all came as a surprise as
at their previous quarterly report, and throughout the quarter,
management sounded very positive and optimistic for the
year, with some expectations of potential revenue growth
reacceleration. Additionally, management couldn’t calm nerves
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
2
cRPO (current Remaining Performance Obligation) is a metric used by Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies to give investors an indication of future revenue that will come from
existing contracts over the next 12 months.
MONTHLY UPDATE
June 2024
$
1.00
Share Price
as at 31 May 2024
Warrant Price
$
0.04
DISCOUNT
1
2.0
%
MLN NAV
$
1.03
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 May 2024
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.02
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
215m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$215m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
about potential large-scale M&A they might do in the near future,
which is a concern investors continue to have.
Portfolio activity
In May we added ASML to our portfolio. ASML is the leading
manufacturer of lithography machines used to produce
semiconductor chips. Described by some as the most complex
machines ever built, these lithography machines can be as large
as a bus, contain over 100,000 parts and cost hundreds of
millions of dollars. ASML has 100% market share in the cutting-
edge lithography machines that are used to manufacture the
most advanced semiconductor chips such as those used in
smartphones and laptops. Advances in areas such as AI and
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 May 2024
29
%
8
%
19
%
FINANCIALS
19
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 May 2024
6
%
WESTERN
EUROPE
87
%
NORTH
AMERICA
17
%
7
%
ASIA PACIFIC
3
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
HEALTH CARE
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
5
%
CONSUMER
STAPLES
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
autonomous driving will require increasing amounts of these
advanced semiconductor chips, which will drive ongoing demand
for ASML’s advanced lithography machines. While the AI spotlight
is currently on companies like Nvidia or AMD that are generating
AI revenues today, ASML’s AI revenue is currently minimal, but this
long-term structural demand for increased computing power will
underpin ASML’s revenue growth over the medium-to-longer term.
3
MAY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
(in local currency) during the month
NETFLIX
+17
%
ICON PLC
+9
%
META
PLATFORMS
+9
%
SALESFORCE
+9
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 May 2024
AMAZON
8
%
ALPHABET
7
%
MICROSOFT
7
%
FLOOR & DÉCOR
6
%
META PLATFORMS
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 16 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 May 2024
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+2.0%+1.9%+20.0%(6.3%)+12.7%
Adjusted NAV Return+1.4%(0.0%)+21.0%+1.6%+11.0%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +1.7%+0.7%+24.5%+3.4%+14.0%
Benchmark Index^+2.0%+3.1%+19.8%+6.0%+10.5%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
INTUITIVE
SURGICAL
-13
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 May 2024
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Nov
2023
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on 29 April
2024
»The new warrant term offer document was sent to all
Marlin shareholders in early May 2024
»The Record Date for the issue of the new Marlin warrants
to eligible Marlin shareholders was 15 May 2024
»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 16 May 2024
»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the
NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024
»The Exercise Date for the new Marlin warrants is
16 May 2025
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest according
to the Management Agreement
and other written policies. Marlin’s
portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds
Management Limited. Sam Dickie
(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),
and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty
(Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.