Meridian Investor Day Presentation
Release
M e r i d i a n E n e r g y L i m i t e d ( A R B N 1 5 1 8 0 0 3 9 6 ) A c o m p a n y i n c o r p o r a t e d i n N e w Z e a l a n d
287-2 9 3 D u r h a m S t r e e t N o r t h , C h r i s t c h u r c h 8 0 1 3
m e r i d i a n e n e r g y . c o . n z
Stock Exchange Listings NZX (MEL) ASX (MEZ)
Meridian Investor Day Presentation
25 June 2024
Attached is the presentation Meridian Energy is making at today’s investor day in Queenstown.
The presentation will commence at 9.30am NZT and close at 2.30pm. A video link is available here. The
run sheet, including all speakers and speaking times, is included on page 3 of the attachment.
A recording will also be posted to the investor presentations page of the Meridian website.
ENDS
Neal Barclay
Chief Executive
Meridian Energy Limited
For investor relations queries, please contact:
Owen Hackston
Investor Relations Manager
021 246 4772
For media queries, please contact:
Philip Clark
Head of Communications
027 838 5710
25 JUNE 2024
2024 Investor Day
Lake Manapōuri in the Fiordland National Park
2
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Today’s agenda
3
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
9.30am - 9.40amWelcomeOwen HackstonInvestor Relations Manager
9.40am – 10.00amOpening commentsMark VerbiestChair
10.00am – 10.20amStrategy and prioritiesNeal BarclayChief Executive
10.20am – 10.40amNew Zealand’s Aluminium SmelterChris BlenkironChief Executive and General Manager, NZAS
10.40am – 11.10amMorning tea
11.10am – 11.30amNZAS contractsMike RoanChief Financial Officer
11.30am – 11.50amMeridian RetailLisa HannifinChief Customer Officer
11.50am – 12.10pmEnergy system modellingRory BlundellGroup Strategy Manager
12.10pm – 1.10pmLunch
1.10pm – 1.30pmDevelopment pipelineRebecca KnottRenewable Development Manager
1.30pm – 1.50pmConsentingGuy WaiparaGeneral Manager Development
1.50pm - 2.10pmGenerationTania PalmerGeneral Manager Generation
2.10pm – 2.20pmClosing commentsNeal BarclayChief Executive
4
Mark Verbiest, Chair
Opening comments
25 JUNE 2024
2024 INVESTOR DAY
Maintenance at
Meridian’s West Wind
Farm near Wellington
5
Energy policies from the coalition government
§Ceased work on Onslow pumped hydro
investigations. MBIE continuing work on
security of supply.
§Offshore oil and gas exploration ban
repealed.
§Net Zero by 2050 reiterated with doubling of
renewable electricity included.
§Repeal Natural and Built Environment and
Spatial Planning Acts.
§Establishing a streamlined consenting and
permitting process for significant projects.
§Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS) settings for
the next five yearsfinalised in September
2024.
§Agriculture removed from ETS.
§GIDI funding and Clean Car Discount ceased.
2024 INVESTOR DAY
Meridian’s Te Āpiti Wind Farm north of the Manawatū Gorge
25 JUNE 2024
Energy transition
§Represents a significant investment cycle:
$30B+ new sector generation investment.
§Demand response established as a risk
management solution.
However, we are experiencing transition
challenges:
§Domestic gas supply decline and energy
security.
§Ability of grid investment to keep pace.
§Consumer price pressures: wholesale prices,
grid/network resilience and expansion, cost
of capital volatility.
§Complexity in the consenting framework.
6
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Headwaters of Lake Pūkaki in the Mackenzie Basin, Canterbury
7
25 JUNE 2024
2024 INVESTOR DAY
Meridian’s Harapaki Wind Farm in Hawke’s Bay
Neal Barclay, Chief Executive
Strategy and priorities
8
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Strategy spotlight: process heat
Meridian growth
§116GWh commissioned and operational, $4M revenue FY24 YTD.
§234GWh under construction.
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
§1,000GWh under contract by FY30.
Market opportunity
§Across the South Island, there is 1.46GW of non-renewable heat capacity primarily from
coal in the South Island (DETA consulting).
§Process heat accounts for 34% of New Zealand’s energy consumption (MBIE).
§Industrial electrification via process heat has huge potential (4+TWh by 2050) (Meridian).
Spotlight: Grow renewable generation
Te mahi
Our key initiatives
Horizon 1
FY25
Horizon 2
FY26to FY30
Horizon 3
to FY50FY27–29
Te whainga
Our targets
Accelerate
electrification of
transport and
process heat
• Install 75 fast chargers by the end of
FY25
• Convert 200GWh of MOU process
heat to contracts
• Additional 200GWh
of process heat under
contract in 2027
• NZ’s largest and most
loved EV charging
network by FY2028
• 1,000GWh of process
heat under contract
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Looking back
11
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Looking forward
12
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Note: Jul 24 NZAS contract effective date is subject to satisfaction of remaining conditions precedent
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024
GWh
Maximum half hourly peak demand
Demand growth
Near-term growth is influenced by climate factors
13
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
-2.0
-1.0
+0. 0
+1. 0
+2. 0
+3. 0
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23No v-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24
ºC
Demand growth
YoY demand growth
variation to mean temperature (RHS)
Long-term growth is supported by fundamentals
NZ population >6M by 2050 (Stats NZ)
~1m electric vehicles by 2035 (Meridian)
4GW+ of thermal process heat (Meridian)
Green hydrogen
Data centres and AI ??
dry rural South island areas
201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
6,6967,0786,7166,7086,6466,7046,6826,8426,9606,8266,8567,2807,0907,3166,988
134101115121486972315
And winter peaks are growing
rank
max
Meridian Energy Investor Day
25 JUNE 2024
14
NZAS Overview
$452.6M
Economic
Contribution
$105.2M
Wages and
salaries
337,176
Saleable
tonnes
13t/t
aluminium
International
average
2t/t
aluminium
Carbon
intensity
796
Employees
202
Contractors
2,200approx
indirectly
supported
15
CarbonOur place in the world
25
13%75%
0
5
10
15
20
Scope 1 and 2 Emissions tCO2/t
Chart source: Industry available information
16
CarbonOur place in Aotearoa
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020
1990-2021 GHG Emissions
- kt CO2e
Chart source: : MfE 'NZ Interaction Emissions Tracker' ( https://emissionstracker.environment.govt.nz)
Aluminium
Production
Iron and Steel
Production
17
Ngāi Tahu Relationship
Mā whero, mā pango, ka oti ai te mahi
With red and black together the work will
be complete
Memorandum of Understanding
• Signed on 4 October 2022.
• It covers the overarching relationship, remediation co-design and
community funding.
• Established Advisory Group to oversee MoU implementation.
• Three Awarua Rūnaka / Ngāi Tahu representatives and
three Rio Tinto / NZAS representatives
Remediation Advisory Working Group
• Made up of four Awarua Rūnaka / Ngāi Tahu representatives and
four NZAS representatives
• This group will focus on progressive remediation.
Community Development Fund
• $2 million fund launched in April 2023. $1.15M allocated in 2023.
• Investment in community infrastructure, enhanced environmental
& social outcomes and a strong, sustainable regional economy
.
18
Remediation Journey Highlights
May 2022
Feb 2021
Throughout 2023
Feb 2024
Export of all 24Kt of
Ouvea that was stored
in community for
processing and
recycling.
Extensive independent
report into
environmental impact
of smelter operations
concludes low risk of
human or kai moana
impact.
Rio Tinto confirms it will
return Ouvea Premix
stored in Southland
warehouses to site.
Onsite landfill
permanently closed.
Alternative waste
management systems
adopted.
Nov 2023
Export of stored SCL
commences to Australia.
Feasibility of onsite SCL
processing facility
ongoing.
19
Questions?
20
21
25 JUNE 2024
2024 INVESTOR DAY
Transmission lines near New Zealand’s Aluminium Smelter in Southland
Mike Roan – Chief Financial Officer
NZAS contracts
NZAS Base Contract
Other than force majeure, the Base Contract is straightforward. It includes the following elements:
§A sustainable price beginning 1 July 2024 subject to conditional CPI escalation from 2028.
§A 20-year term, up to 31 December 2044 noting that NZAS can exercise a 2-year termination right from 31
December 2032 if it pays $180M.
§472MW until 31 December 2024 and 377MW from 2025 onwards.
§Prudential support of $235M in the first 10 years and $180M for the remainder.
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
The force majeure provisions are summarised below:
§If either party faces an event outside its reasonable control, then:
§In the case of NZAS, that event impacts more than 33% of normal operations at Tīwai; or
§In the case of Meridian, that event impacts more than 21% of Manapōuri and Waitaki generation.
§Then the affected party may call force majeure (which comes into effect 30 days after notice provided).
§The effect of force majeure is to reduce Base Contract quantity by the proportion which normal generation or
normal consumption is reduced. In addition, demand response calls may not be made during NZAS force
majeure.
§If the force majeure event has not been remedied or is not capable of remedy by the party that called force
majeure within two years, then either party may terminate the agreement.
NZAS Demand Response Agreement
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
§The term of the Demand Response Agreement (DRA) mirrors that of the Base Contract.
§Under the DRA, four demand response Options are exercisable by Meridian.
§If an Option is exercised, Base Contract quantity will be reduced by 18.75MW, 37.5MW, 75MW or
138.75MW.
§Stand down periods apply between the exercise of Options.
§In return for the optionality, NZAS will be paid an annual premium.
§If an Option is called, a payment is made to NZAS for actual reduction.
§The annual premium and price for reduction escalate in the same way that the Base Contract price
escalates.
§NZAS chooses whether it reduces physical consumption when an Option is called.
§If it does, then consumption should reduce by 25MW, 50MW, 100MW and 185MW.
§If it does not, NZAS loses up to half of the annual premium and could be exposed to the spot price
for volume consumed above the Base Contract quantity.
NZAS Demand Response Agreement
24
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Summary of Demand Response Options
Option
Equivalent
reduced
consumption
(MWh per
hour)
ExercisableReduction
from Meridian
demand response
agreement
(MWh per
hour)
Usual
Ramp-
Down
Notice
Period
DR Period
(equivalent
number of days)
Usual Ramp-
Down Period
(equivalent
numberof days)
Usual Ramp-Up
Notice Period
(equivalent
number ofdays)
Usual Ramp-Up
Period
(equivalent
number ofdays)
Maximum Calls
12518.75
3 Business
Days
Minimum 10 days,
maximum 150days
5 days3 days15 days
Unlimited, but the
Option cannotbe
exercised more than 4
times inany 12-month
period
250
37.5
3 Business
Days
Minimum 15days,
maximum145 days
10 days3 days30 days
Unlimited, but the
Option cannotbe
exercised more than 2
times inany 18-month
period
3
100
75
3 Business
Days
Minimum 22days,
maximum137days
18 days5 days100 days
The Option cannot be
exercisedmore than 8
times over the Term
4185
138.75
5 Business
Days
Minimum 30
days,
maximum75 days
25 days5 days200 days
The Option cannot be
exercisedmore than 4
times over the Term
Stand down periods apply between the exercise of Options.
NZAS Demand Response Agreement - examples
Maximum call volumes associated with each Option
25
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
0
50
100
150
181522293643505764717885929910 611 312 012 713 414114815 516216917 618 319019720 421 121 822 523 223 924625 326026727 428 128 8295
Meridian MW
Days
NZAS DR MW at maximum duration
Option 4 (Maximum MEL GWh: 560.1)
Option 3 (Maximum MEL GWh: 322.3)
Option 2 (Maximum MEL GWh: 148.5)
Option 1 (Maximum MEL GWh: 72.0)
Source: Meridian
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
01
Ma y
08
Ma y
15
Ma y
22
Ma y
29
Ma y
05
Jun
12
Jun
19
Jun
26
Jun
03
Jul
10
Jul
17 Jul24
Jul
31 Jul07
Au g
14
Au g
21
Au g
28
Au g
04
Se p
11
Se p
18
Se p
25
Se p
02
Oct
09
Oct
16
Oct
23
Oct
30
Oct
06
Nov
13
Nov
Cumulative GWh (Meridian)
MW (Meridian)
Call Planner
MEL-NZAS Contract Volu me ( MW)MEL MW377 MWCalled GWh (RHS)
18.75MW for up to 150 days
NZAS Demand Response Agreement - example 1: exercising Option 1
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
§Meridian provides NZAS with three business days’ notice (Notice Period) that it is executing Option 1.
§In that notice, it also sets out how long it wants the Option for. In this example, the call is for 150 days (the DR Period).
§Base Contract quantity will start to reduce gradually over five days after the notice period (the Ramp Down Period), after
which it will sit at 358.25MW (377MW - 18.75MW) for the DR Period.
§At the end of the DR Period, Base Contract quantity will increase gradually over 15 days (the Ramp Up Period).
§The call will end at the end of the Ramp Up Period.
§If Meridian wants to reduce the DR Period, it provides three days’ notice after which the Ramp Up Period will commence.
Source: Meridian
17
Jul
31
Jul
30 day stand down
before any Option can
be called
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
Ma y
25
Jun 25Jul 25Aug 25Se p 25Oct 25Nov 25Dec 25Jan 26Feb 26Ma r
26
Apr 26Ma y
26
Jun 26Jul 26Aug 26Se p 26Oct 26
Cumulative GWh (Meridian)
MW (Meridian)
Call Planner
MEL-NZAS Contract Volu me ( MW)MEL MW377 MWCalled GWh (RHS)
NZAS Demand Response Agreement - example 2: exercising Option 3
27
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
§Option 1 has been called as per previous example.
§On day 20 of the DR Period, Meridian gives NZAS three business days’ notice that it would like to exercise Option 3.
§The notice also sets out how long Option 3 is exercised for. It cannot be called for more than 137 days (the maximum DR
period) less the DR Period that has already elapsed for Option 1, so Option 3 is called for 114 days.
§On day 24, Base Contract quantity will reduce gradually over 15 days after which it will sit at 302MW (377MW - 75MW).
§At the end of the Option 3 DR Period, Base Contract quantity will gradually increase over 100 days, after which the
Option will end.
§If Meridian wants to reduce the DR Period, it provides five days’ notice after which the Ramp Up Period will commence.
Source: Meridian
60 day stand down
before Options 1 or 2
can be called
270 day stand down
before Options 3 or 4
can be called
Option 1
Option 3
May 25
Mar 26May 26
0
200
400
60 0
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
Ma y 25Au g 25Nov 25Fe b 26Ma y 26Au g 26Nov 26Fe b 27Ma y 27Au g 27Nov 27Fe b 28Ma y 28Au g 28Nov 28Fe b 29Ma y 29Au g 29Nov 29Fe b 30
Cumulative GWh (Meridian)
MW (Meridian)
Call Planner
MEL-NZAS Contract Volu me ( MW)MEL MW377 MWCalled GWh (RHS)
NZAS Demand Response Agreement and Meridian trading
28
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
§An internal information barrier was set up during negotiations so that Meridian’s traders would not have information
that might impact trading decisions. That barrier was removed when the contracts were publicly announced.
§Since then, Meridian traders have built a model to optimise call volumes subject to certain constraints.
§Meridian traders can use that model to assess exercise strategies – in this case, call volumes over a five-year period.
§That optimisation calls Options 1, 2, 3 and 4 subject to standdown periods.
§It has also confirmed that the total average/maximum Option volume of 400GWh/800GWh is available.
§As an interesting fact, that model has also confirmed that it would take 17 years to extinguish maximum call volumes
should Options 3 or 4 be called consecutively.
Source: Meridian
Option 2
Option 1
Option 3
Option 4
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Maximum Number of Calls
§Each Option exercise represents one call.
§If Meridian exercises Option 1 and then Option 3, that represents a call for Option 1 and Option 3 respectively.
Other elements of the NZAS Demand Response Agreement
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Demand Response Premium (DRP)
§Not payable in the first sixmonths of thecontract.
§After six months, half of the DRP is at risk each year based on calculations of actual volume reduced and expected
profile volume reductions.The way this works is as follows:
§Half of the DRP is paid monthly to NZAS (in arrears).
§The remaining half of the DRP is paid at the end of a 12-month period based on:
§If actual volume reductions in that year are greater than 95% of the expected volume, then that half of the
DRP is paid in full.
§If in that year, actual volume reductions are greater than 51% but lower than 95%, then the payment that is
made is linearly increased from zero to half of the DRP, based on actual volume reductions as a percentage of
expected volumes.
§If in that year volume reductions are less than 51% of expected volume, then that half of the DRP is waived.
Pausing Demand Response Calls
§Meridian can ‘pause’ notified calls during the ramp up period by issuing a Restricted DR Cessation Notice.
§This ‘pause’ can only be issued for Options 2 and 3 and can only be issued if consumption has not lifted by more than
40% of the original DR Reduction for that Option.
Lisa Hannifin – Chief Customer Officer
Meridian Retail
30
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Strong, sustainedgrowthanddiscipline
25 0 ,0 0 0
27 0, 00 0
290 ,0 0 0
310,000
330,000
350,000
370,000
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22FY23
FY24
ICPs
ICP GROWTH
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22FY23
FY24
GWh
SALES VOLUME
GROWTH
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
$/MWh
NETBACK
GROWTH
31
Meridian’s Zero public charging network
+25%+55%+47%
Adapting to emerging technologies in changing markets
Decarbonisation
New technology
(supply & demand)
Digitisation
Implication:
Description:
Increased electricity
demand
EVs, home electrification,
and green hydrogen
production will drive
electricity growth,
tempered by only small
improvements in
efficiency.
Two-way energy flows
Retailers increasingly
balancing customer
demand and supply
behind and in front of
the meter.
New customer service
models
Customers will
increasingly expect
seamless digital service
across an increasingly
complex product set; old
commodity products
increasingly superseded.
Trend:
32
Source: McKinsey 2023
Meridian commercial solar installation
Driving future value
Value
creation
To
Market
structure
From
Customer
demand
Fully electrified home and transport
Mix of grid supply and orchestrated behind-the-
meter assets
Commodity power supply
(e.g. heating, cooking appliances)
TOU
Non-TOU
Volatile wholesale prices; competition between
large generators, behind-the-meter assets and
flexible demand
Traditional incumbent led market
Bi-directional power flowsOne-way power flows
Strong wholesale positionStrong wholesale position
Retail excellenceAbility to seamlessly integrate customer supply
across grid and distributed assets
33
Source: McKinsey 2023
Potential annual EBITDAF uplift
1
($M) for Meridian by innovation value pool for 2030 and steady state (assuming 30% market share)
New value pools are emerging and have the potential to contribute ~$100M to EBITDAF for
Meridian in 2030
11
3
48
7
62
21
8
7
100
4
136
10
198
EVs
1
Battery
Demand response
2
Home electrification
~270~100
19Solar
21 – 31
148
Process heat
3
11
Total~370
10
•Value pool includes CAPEX, installation, financing, energy for mass market and C&I customers
Key assumptions and inputs
Value pool estimate in 2030Incremental value in pool in 2040
•Value pool includes CAPEX, installation, financing, energy for mass market and C&I customers
•Value pool includes AC and DC charging
•Includes passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles
•Value pool does not include hardware manufacturing or energy management
•Heat pumps only; uptake based on phase-out of natural gas by 2050 for mass market customers only;
value pool includes CAPEX, installation and financing
•Includes batteries, heat pumps, process heat, EVs only
and estimated arbitrage price of $40/MWh
from New Zealand wholesale market FY23-FY28
•Assumes 2hrs of flexibility for C&I segment; all of mass market segment is assumed flexible load
•Assumes linear electrification of fossil-fuel capacity by 2050 and 5280 hrs of operation for C&I only
•Value pool includes CAPEX, installation, financing, energy; CAPEX, installation and financing likely to
vary significantly resulting in total value pool range between $21 – $31m
Hypothesis highest value pools for Meridian
1-3
McKinsey 2023, from their energy global power and energy expert group (See references, page 73)
Before accounting for cannibalisation
of $8-$19M
Does not include eroded underlying electricity supply by underserving growing customer segment or
any broader benefits to customers and the core retail business (e.g., retention, cross-sell)
Before accounting for cannibalisation
of $1-$4M
PRELIMINARY
34
Targeting new value pools with new propositions
V2G trial, Meridian Durham Street office, Christchurch
Meridian’s perspective on the retail
customer fundamentally changes
Economic value for customers is based on
reductions in total energy spend
Trials and experience to date have
highlighted the value that can be
created
35
A range of international reference points
have been considered
A new way forward
36
Sharpening our strategy to set us up for success
37
Ngā mihi
Questions
39
25 JUNE 2024
2024 INVESTOR DAY
Meridian’s Benmore Power Station in the Waitaki Valley
Rory Blundell, Group Strategy Manager
Energy system modelling
Meridian’s modelling framework
40
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
41
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Plausible future scenarios
Demand projections
At an aggregate level, our projections are generally aligned with others.
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
19972001200520092013201720212025202920332037204120452049
Demand for generation [GWh]
Financial Year ended 30 June
Annual NZ Demand for Generation
HistoryEv o
RevoCCC - Reference
CCC - Net Zero
But it’s not clear which trajectory we are on.
§We see EV growth slower at first
than some, but a tipping point
in early-30s, rapid uptake
thereafter: from ~65k today to
500k - 1.1min the coming
decade.
§Industrial electrification via
process heat has huge potential
(4 – 9TWh by 2050).
§50% to (almost) 100%
moregeneration needsto be
built compared to today.
Source: Meridian, He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission
2030
EVO
1TWh
REVO
2TWh
2040
EVO
3TWh
REVO
6TWh
2050
EVO
4TWh
REVO
9TWh
Industrial electrification via process heat
-10,000
-5,000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
202320252027202920312033203520372039204120432045204720492051
Consumer Demand (GWh)
Financial Year ended 30 June
Consumer involvement in electricity markets (REVO)
BESS Charge
Household Batteries/Demand Fle x Charge
Heavy EV Load
Decarbonisation Load
EV Load
BESS Discharge
Household Batteries/Demand Fle x Discharge
Load Participation
Ro o fto p So lar
Consumer involvement
Picking demand is extra hard as it’s the sum of many moving parts.
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
And quality and quantity matter.
Source: Meridian
Levelised cost of energy
We believe innovation will deliver technology cost improvements over time, though now starting
from a higher base.
44
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
However, costs of getting stuff done in New Zealand add some stickiness.
Source: Meridian, IRENA
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
$-
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
201020152020202520302035204020452050
LCOE [2024 NZ$/MWh]
Typical Renewable Technology LCOE
Global history (IRENA) and NZ forecast (WMO23)
wind: MEL rangesol ar: M EL range
on-shore wind (ex China)grid solar (ex-China)
off-shore wind (ex-China)IEA-Avg: wind
IEA-Avg: solarTuritea S+N
Lod es tone Sol arFar North Solar
Kai wera DownsNgatamariki
WaipipiTe H uka
Ta uha raGeo Futures
Ha rap akiNZWF
Mt C assKai wera Downs II
IRENA global LCOE historyMeridian LCOE forecasts
geothermal
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
19972001200520092013201720212025202920332037204120452049
TWAP [$/MWh
-
real 2023]
Average Annual NZ Price Outlook at Ōtāhuhu
WMO23
History
NI Hist ory (real)
History-Avg
Wholesale price outlook
Putting it all together, you get Real prices ~$115/MWh in the North Island for the next 15 years or so.
45
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Before the combined effects of demand and supply-side innovation pulls prices down.
Source: Meridian
EVO
REVO
EVO
REVO
REVO
EVO
50 %
60 %
70%
80%
90 %
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
2002200620102014201820222026203020342038204220462050
GWAP/TWAP
Financial Year ended 30 June
Example - Annual Price Participation
HistoryWaitaki chainManapōuriWindSolar
Price participation
Average prices hide a very dynamic system.
46
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Prices will need to keep adapting to the changing physical market to drive the right investment.
Source: Meridian
Flexibility
Significant investment in flexibility required no matter how you look at it.
47
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
And thermal generation needed for some time to come.
Source: Meridian
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2023202620292032203520382041204420472050
Firming Requirement (GWh)
Financial Year ended 30 June
Within Week Firming Requirements - EVO
Batteries and Demand Flexibilit y
Lo ad Participation
Fossil Peakers
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2023202620292032203520382041204420472050
Firming Requirement (GWh)
Financial Year ended 30 June
Within Week Firming Requirements - REVO
Gr id-S cale BE SS
Fossil Peakers
Lo ad Participation
Distributed Batteries and Demand Flexibility
Source: Meridian
Conclusions
§We have a mature analytical framework to explore, understand and ultimately answer
strategic issues facing Meridian and the market within a volatile future environment.
§Our plausible scenarios indicate what electricity generation “could” look like – we
acknowledge we won’t get it right.
§Overall, our view on long-run prices has lifted, primarily due to increased build costs of
new renewables to sit around $115/MWh (real, North Island) for the next 15 years or so.
§We back innovation to keep downward pressure on real prices in the long-run.
§Firming all the new renewables does not look trivial. We need lots of it across all time
scales.
§Demand-side participation will play a critical role, starting now.
§The energy transition won’t be a straight-line – constrained gas is a current issue, but there
will be others along the way – we’ll need to keep adapting.
48
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
49
25 JUNE 2024
2024 INVESTOR DAY
Blade transportation at Meridian’s Harapaki Wind Farm in Hawke’s Bay
Rebecca Knott – Head of Renewable Development
Development pipeline
50
2024 INVESTOR DAY25 JUNE 2024
Changes from Feb 2024
Ruakākā solar →Q3 2026
Manawatū battery →Q1 2027
Waikato solar ←from secured options
Western Bays solar ←from secured options
Waiinu wind ←Q4 2029
Swannanoa solar +70MW
Waiinu solar +110MW
Waiinu Energy Park
§Near Waiinu Beach and Waitōtara, South
Taranaki and 42km north-west of Whanganui.
§Wind generation (max) 350MW, 50
turbines; Solar array (max) 400MW, BESS.
§Maximum annual generation ~2,000GWh
(enough to power ~285,000 average homes).
§Two ‘blocks’ of privately owned land 4,700ha
and 600ha approximately.
§One of the largest economic renewable energy
development opportunities in New Zealand.
§Project investment of approximately $1.5B–$1.7B.
§Estimated 450 to 550 direct full-time equivalent
jobs at the peak of construction activities.
§Est. annual operational costs of $26M-$32M p.a.
§Up to 20 direct full-time equivalent jobs.
51
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Location and indicative layout of the Waiinu Energy Park
Western Bays solar development
§Western side of Lake Taupō and east of
Bunnythorpe to Whakamaru 220kV
transmissions lines.
§Maximum capacity of 500MW; located within ~
630ha of privately owned farmland.
§Maximum annual generation ~940GWh,
(enough to power ~135,000 average homes).
§Project investment of approximately $800M.
§On dairy farmland elevated 100 metres above
the level of Lake Taupō.
§Land use change would achieve lower nutrient
footprint than the existing (farm) land use (strict
nutrient limits apply to the catchment).
52
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Location and indicative layout of the Western Bays solar project
53
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Prospecting
Iwi and community engagement
54
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Mt Munro pop-in shop in Eketāhuna
We are committed to engagement in both Fast
Track or traditional RMA route.
RMA is the Resource Management Act
55
Guy Waipara, General Manager Development
Consenting
25 JUNE 2024
2024 INVESTOR DAY
cElver trap and transfer in the Waitaki Valley
Past project consenting
§Widely recognised that Resource Management Act (RMA) is expensive and time consuming.
§Increasing delays and complexity are obvious.
56
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
ProjectTurbines Average
homes
Council
hearing days
Environment Court
hearing days
Number of consent
conditions
LodgedFinal Decision issued
Te Apiti5530,0001N/A2019 June 20033 September 2003
White Hill2922,0003N/A306 October 200421 December 2004
West Wind6273,00017181141 July 200520 July 2007
North Bank Tunnel
(not built)
Hydro300,0002711-12 October 200623 November 2010
Hayes
(not built)
176263,00019329012 July 2006
16 August 2010
(High Court decision)
Mill Creek2634,00026119012 March 200816 February 2012
Central Wind
(not built)
5250,0001031095 May 200814 June 2010
Hurunui
(not built)
2831,000N/A2611421 February 20114 November 2013
Ruakākā BESS
Battery
storage
50,000
(2 hours)
N/AN/A4318 July 20221 November 2022
77
days
988
days
77days
750days
1,504
days
1,497days
1,437days
771
days
107days
-
10
20
30
4 0
50
6 0
1975198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
TWh
Wholesale market outlook generation mix
BESS + Demand Response
Thermal
Grid Solar
Distributed Solar
Geothermal
Wind
Hydro
The new consenting
and development
challenge
Future consenting
57
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
The re-consenting
and re-powering
challenge
§Achieving high levels of electrification requires fit for purpose approval pathways for both
new development and reconsenting and repowering.
Source: Meridian
Current Meridian consenting
58
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Fast Track Approvals Bill (FTAB)
§Part of a programme of RMA Reforms that
the Government proposes to implement.
§Submissions closed 19 April and the Select
Committee is scheduled to report back to
Parliament by 7 September.
§The date by which the legislation might be
passed and operative, will depend on
legislative priorities in 2024.
§In parallel, the Government established a
Fast Track Advisory Group to review projects
for incorporation into the FTAB.
§Aspects of the FTAB are contentious, most
notably the role of Ministerial decision
making and the schedules of projects not
being public information.
59
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Lake Ruataniwha, near Twizel, part of Meridian’s Waitaki hydro scheme
Meridian and the FTAB
§Meridian has experienced the systemic
problems the FTAB is seeking to address.
§Meridian has nominated projects for the
FTAB that have significant scale, good
economics and that are not already in a
process for approval.
§Meridian has proposed two projects to be
scheduled:
§Waiinu Energy Park, South Taranaki,
§Western Bays Solar, Western Taupō.
§Meridian and other sector participants are
seeking changesthat would improve the
durability of the processes and
accommodatereconsenting and
repowering.
60
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Meridian’s Manapōuri Power Station in the Fiordland National Park
Meridian’s Waitaki reconsenting
61
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
62
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2024 INVESTOR DAY
Tania Palmer – General Manager Generation
Generation
Machine hall at
Meridian’s Manapōuri
power station in the
Fiordland National Park
Generation team strategy
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
A foundation for growth and flex
§Meridian’s hydro portfolio and our operational
excellence allows us to manage complexity well
and has set foundation for growth and flex.
§Largest hydro fleet in Aotearoa: 2,479MW, seven
power stations.
§Our Strategic Asset Management Plan enables us
to pivot (and we’re really good at it).
§We transitioned from Ōhau refurbishment to
Manapōuri automation upgrades in 2021.
§Things became complex with transformer
failures in 2022/23.
§Low service factor
1
combined with high availability
and capacity factor
2
means headroom.
§Meridian’s capacity factor average is 56%.
§Allows us to manage unplanned events like
extended Manapōuri transformer outages.
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25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
1
% of time hydro is online
2
% of time we generate at full load
§3 other levers to pull:
§Use other catchments & wind (days-weeks)
§Reduce contract position (weeks-months)
§Call swaption (2 months+).
0
2, 0 00
4,000
6,000
8,000
10 , 00 0
12 ,0 0 0
14, 0 00
16, 00 0
0%
20 %
40%
60%
80%
10 0 %
20 1 220 1 320 1 420 1 520 1 620 1 720 1 820 1 920 2 020 2 120 2 220 2 320 2 4
year ended 30 June
Meridian hydro performance
AvailabilitySe r vice Fa ct or
Capacity Factor GWh out put (RHS )
Ōhau refurb
starts
NZAS
contract
termination
Ōhau refurb
paused.
Manapōuri
programme
starts
Transformer
gassing. 2
units out
Wind Farm performance
§Five operational wind farms, soon to be six.
§Different maintenance models (full outsource;
insource; hybrid)for each wind farmhas meant we
are robust against failure ofOEMs
1
.
§Demand for trained turbine technicians is very high
in NZ and filling vacancies is challenging withan
increasing build pipeline. Meridian having the
capability to train new technicians and retention
is important.
§The ability to source major components is vital to
maintaining the availability of existing wind assets.
Current stock is about $19M covering 12-24 months
consumptiondue to long lead times from Europe.
§Our wind farms have high-capacity factors due to
good wind resource. These average around 40%.
European offshore average is 36% and onshore
24%. Australian average is 35%.
§High wind speeds also mean turbines suffer more
stress withhigher maintenance costs in later years.
65
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
1
Original equipment manufacturers
0%
20 %
40%
60%
80%
10 0 %
Jan-16Nov-16Se p- 17Jul- 18Ma y-19Ma r-2 0Jan-21Nov-21Se p- 22Jul- 23
Meridian Wind Farm availability
Te Api tiWhite HillWest WindTe UkuMi ll C re e k
Te Āpiti
remediation
White Hill
remediation
§We own some of New Zealand’s oldest wind farms and
have invested in rectifyingmanufacturing defects.
§These remediations have returned wind farms like Te Āpiti
and White Hill to high availability.
66
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
A new operating model
§Our 2022 transformation to a new operating model has enabled growth and flexibility with some key
accomplishments in last 18 months.
67
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Additional 15MW growth in output of existing assets by
removing control system constraints.
YTD spot revenue uplift of $7M from Manapōuri and Benmore.
New MW uplift across hydro in FY24 has cost us less than $1M.
Grow renewable generationDeliver operational excellence
Grow our dispatchable MW capacity
capacity
Build operational flex and agility while
sustaining excellent asset productivity
Our key
initiatives
Our
priorities
ProjectInstalled
MW
Operating
MW
Growth
(new MW)
Manapōuri875896
1
+21MW
Benmore540570+30MW
Ōhau A264254
Aviemore220220
Ōhau B212212
+12MW to
+16MW
2
Ōhau C212212
Waitaki105105
15 to 128 additional MWs to supply circa 200 additional
peak demand periods annually through operational
flexibility initiatives.
§Flexible outage scheduling
§Off peak outage scheduling
§Hydro outages scheduled during high wind.
58 fewer annual routine outage days through
maintenance innovation.
§Maintenance review and rationalisation
§Realising benefit from automation upgrades.
1
Overall station output remains the same at 800MW due to discharge consent limitations
2
Dependent on Transpowerdispensation approval
68
25 JUNE 2024
2024 INVESTOR DAY
Neal Barclay, Chief Executive
Closing
Meridian’s West Wind Farm near Wellington
69
25 JUNE 2024
2024 INVESTOR DAY
Meridian’s strategy map
Meridian’s West Wind Farm near Wellington
70
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
71
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
72
25 JUNE 20242024 INVESTOR DAY
Meridian Retail sources, references and disclaimers
Page 34: Content supplied during McKinsey review, 2023
1.All numbers are indicative. For solar, battery, EVs, home electrification, process heat: each value pool is split by market segment – mass market and C&I.
Calculation of segment values pools estimated by total value pool ($) multiplied by Meridian share (30%). Total value pool ($) i s the product of value chain
margin components ($/MW) x annual installed capacity (MW) + cumulative electricity consumption ($). Margin of value chain components include CAPEX,
installation, financing. Cumulative electricity consumption = sum of installed capacity since 2023 x average margin on electricity for customer segment. Assumes
average retail margin for residential and C&I customers in 2023 = assumes average retail margin for residential and C&I customers in 2023. For demand
response: value pool is split by mass market and C&I. Calculation of segment values pools estimated by total value pool ($) multiplied by Meridian share (30%).
For mass market, total value pool ($) is the product of cumulative energy from battery, EV, heat pumps x wholesale arbitrage price. For C&I, total value pool ($) is
the product of cumulative energy from battery, process heat x wholesale arbitrage price;
2.Key drivers of value pool estimate include 2-hr flexibility for C&I segment and Meridian share capture of 30%;
3.Key drivers of value pool estimate include hours of operation (5280 hrs), linear electrification of process heat and Meridian share capture of 30%.
73
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Page 33: Content supplied during McKinsey review, 2023
74
Disclaimer
The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian
Energy with due care and attention. However, the information is
supplied in summary form and is therefore not necessarily complete,
and no representation is made as to the accuracy, completeness or
reliability of the information. In addition, neither the company nor
any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any other person
shall have liability whatsoever to any person for any loss (including,
without limitation, arising from any fault or negligence) arising from
this presentation or any information supplied in connection with it.
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and
projections. These reflect Meridian’s current expectations, based on
what it thinks are reasonable assumptions. Meridian gives no
warranty or representation as to its future financial performance or
any future matter. Except as required by law or NZX or ASX listing
rules, Meridian is not obliged to update this presentation after its
release, even if things change materially.
This presentation does not constitute financial advice. Further, this
presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or
a solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian Energy securities and may
not be relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian
Energy securities.
This presentation contains a number of non-GAAP financial
measures, including Energy Margin, EBITDAF, Underlying NPAT and
gearing. Because they are not defined by GAAP or IFRS, Meridian's
calculation of these measures may differ from similarly titled
measures presented by other companies and they should not be
considered in isolation from, or construed as an alternative to, other
financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP. Although
Meridian believes they provide useful information in measuring the
financial performance and condition of Meridian's business, readers
are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these non-GAAP
financial measures.
The information contained in this presentation should be considered
in conjunction with the company’s condensed financial statements
for the six months ended 31 December 2023, available at:
www.meridianenergy.co.nz/about-us/investors
All currency amounts are in New Zealand dollars unless stated
otherwise.
2024 INVESTOR DAY25 JUNE 2024
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.