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Tauhara milestone supports expected dividend uplift

Dividend7 July 2024CENUtilities

Contact Energy Limited Level 2 Harbour City Tower, 29 Brandon Street, Wellington 6011 | PO Box 10742, Wellington 6143
P: +64 4 499 4001 | W: contactenergy.co.nz


8 July 2024


Significant Tauhara milestone supports

expected dividend uplift


Following successful completion of the power station reliability run, Contact’s new Tauhara

geothermal plant is now undertaking final commissioning activities. This is a significant milestone in

the delivery of Contact26, Contact’s strategy to lead the decarbonisation of New Zealand.


Tauhara’s 30-day power station reliability run was completed on Monday 24

th

June, with the plant run

continuously over that period at around 152 MW

1

. The plant was also successfully tested at the target

capacity of 174MW. As Contact completes the final stages of commissioning, Tauhara will be run at

130-135MW for the next two months while modifications are undertaken to address vibrations in a

section of the steam separation plant. Once commissioned, Tauhara is expected to operate at around

152MW until further modifications are undertaken during the first planned outage, scheduled for

October 2025, to secure long-term generation of 174MW (as previously advised).


Contact’s 51.4 MW geothermal plant, Te Huka 3, remains on track to be online in Q4 2024.


The replacement of the Wairakei A&B geothermal power station is the next geothermal development

in Contact’s pipeline. Contact is targeting a final investment decision in Q4 2024 on a new binary plant

of around 100 MW

2

, with an indicative construction completion target of mid-2027. A further update,

including Wairakei extension considerations, will be provided at Contact’s FY24 results in August.


Outlook


Contact’s normalised and expected EBITDAF for FY25 is $770m, materially higher than expected in

FY24 (see guidance table in Appendix). Contact’ FY25 outlook reflects changes to its generation

portfolio as it delivers on its Contact26 commitments with Tauhara and Te Huka 3 coming online.

Expected geothermal volumes for the year reflect final planned commissioning activities and the

statutory four-yearly outage at Te Mihi (which reduces generation by around 150GWh). Large new

long-term contracts to the New Zealand Aluminium Smelter (NZAS), Genesis, Oji Fibre and Pan Pac

all commence in FY25. With a reduction in expected gas deliveries, geothermal outages will need to

be met with acquired generation which has elevated near-term generation costs.


With a long-term contract now in place with NZAS and current geothermal projects at or near

completion, Contact expects to deliver a 4cps uplift from its current 35cps annual dividend. This would

be phased in 2cps increases across the final FY24 and interim FY25 dividend periods. While the

proposed initial ~100 MW Wairakei replacement capex project is under construction, further increases

to dividend per share are not currently anticipated.

3



- ends -

Investor enquiries Media enquiries

Shelley Hollingsworth Louise Wright

Investor Relations and Strategy Manager Head of Communications and Reputation

+64 27 227 2429 +64 21 840 313

shelley.hollingsworth@contactenergy.co.nz louise.wright@contactenergy.co.nz


1

The Guaranteed Net Power Output (GNPO) for Tauhara is 152MW.

2

Contact expects a scaled new build plant to cost over $7m/MW including approved pre-FID spend.

3

All dividend decisions are a matter for the Board at the conclusion of each reporting period. These align to the dividend policy

and are dependent on business and market conditions when each payment decision is made.

2
Normalised and expected FY25 EBITDAF

Strategic fixed price1,900GWh$80/MWh$152m

CFDs1,770GWh$154/MWh$273m

C&I1,300GWh$150/MWh$195m

Retail3,800GWh$154/MWh$585m

Other income³$47m

$1,252m

Hydro mean3,900GWh$0/MWh-$0m

Geothermal average4,620GWh$4/MWh-$19m

Thermal350GWh$130/MWh⁴-$46m

Acquired350GWh$215/MWh-$75m

-$139m

Length⁵$86mTransmission/Storage-$71m

Location losses⁶-$85mOperatingexpenses-$272m

Total$1mTotal-$343m

1.All volumes are at the Grid Exit Point (GXP)

2.Net price is equal to tariff less pass-through costs (network, meters and levies) /MWh

APPENDIX: ASSUMPTIONS FOR NORMALISED EARNINGS

3.Steam sales, retail gas gross margin, broadband gross margin and other income

4. Gas price of $8.20/GJ, carbon price of $80/unit and thermal portfolio heat rate (10GJ/MWh)

5.Length of 450GWh p.a. assumed

6.Locational losses of 5.1% on spot purchases and settlement of CFDs sold at a

wholesale price of $190/MWh

*Fuel is natural gas and carbon costs.

** Retail volume contracted competitive risk remains on pricing achieved.

1,460

310

Channel choices maximise

long term value¹

1

Net price² driven by

best commercial practices

2

x

=

FY assumptions that deliver expected & normalised EBITDAF for FY25

Fuel cost

Net Revenue

Trading

Fixed costs

Hydrology & Asset

availability optimise generation

3

4

Total

x

=

Access to and price of fuel* drives

financials & risk position

Total

Trading delivers value to more

than offset locational losses

5

Digitalisation & continuous

improvement optimise fixed costs

6

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

1,070

230

3,800

1,900

CFDs

C&I

Retail

Strategic fixed

$154/

MWh

$150/

MWh

$154/

MWh**

ContractedUncontracted

1,252

-139

-343

1

770

x

Jul-24Sep-24Jan-25Mar-25Nov-24May-25Jul-25

320

311

311

299

240

222

211

190

204

184

158

135

218

178

218

181

218218

184184

245

203

245

203

245

203

244

200

ASX Futures $/MWh

monthly contracts

At 5 July 2024

$80/

MWh

OTA

BEN

•Note, these figures are subject to rounding.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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