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MLN – August 2024 monthly update

Operational Update12 August 2024MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for July was down -1.5%,

while the adjusted NAV return was down -1.7%. This

compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/

S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was up

+4.9%.

While headline equity returns were solid for the month, with

global equities up +1.8%, there was a lot of movement under

the hood. A weaker than expected inflation number, coupled

with the federal reserve talking down interest rates drove

a big fall in interest rates. This in turn spurred a sharp rally

in smaller companies and more indebted companies. For

example, the Russell 2000 index in the US (heavier weighting

of smaller companies) outperformed the bellwhether S&P500

by 13% over a two-week period - an unusually sharp move.

This, coupled with increased investor scepticism around

the potential for future returns from investment in artificial

intelligence (AI), saw growth stocks underperform.

Reporting season is underway, with around half of US

companies having reported by-month end. Around 75% of

companies beat earnings expectations, but only 56% beat

revenue estimates, a slight drop versus recent quarters.

Forward-looking earnings expectations for the second half

have come down by around 1%.

Portfolio news

MSCI (+12%) reported solid second quarter results.

While MSCI’s customer base is going through cyclical

headwinds, MSCI continues to gain market share in its core

index business. In the previous quarter, retention rates fell

unexpectedly but have rebounded to normal levels this quarter

as well as growth of new subscriptions. MSCI’s expansion

of customised products and solutions proved a success as

wealth management and hedge fund sales grew 12% year-on-

year (y/y) and 15% y/y respectively in the quarter. The company

is also benefiting from a global shift toward passive investing

as passive related revenue grew 18% y/y, now with $5 trillion of

assets tied to MSCI indices. Private asset indexing continues

to be another growth avenue. In July MSCI announced 130

private asset indices as they begin to penetrate this nascent

market.

UnitedHealth (+13%) reported better than feared earnings

given ongoing industry concerns around increasing medical

costs. Health insurers like UnitedHealth have seen a period

of elevated costs as patients are getting treated at higher

rates than expected. Coupled with a more challenging

reimbursement backdrop, industry margins have been

pressured. However, UnitedHealth has shown the benefits

of its scale and integrated model (where they also provide

healthcare services) and has been able to stabilise its medical

costs and its margins. This has put the company in a stronger

position to take market share in the core Medicare Advantage

insurance markets as its competitors focus on improving

margins versus growing membership.

Greggs (+13%) was up in the month after reporting a solid first

half start to the year. First half sales were better than expected

at 13.8%. Greggs continues to develop its menu to suit a

larger customer base and cater for evening customers. The

push into selling to evening customers has been successful to

date. In the first half, Greggs rolled out 51 new stores and is

targeting 140-160 this year, with a long-term goal of reaching

3.5k stores (currently 2.5k). Greggs continues to execute well,

and its value proposition remains strong. Greggs is taking

market share (now the #1 breakfast provider in the UK).

Danaher (+11%) had a strong earnings report which renewed

confidence in the recovery story for its core bioprocessing

segment. The bioprocessing industry (which provides

the equipment and consumables used to make complex

drugs) has been going through a protracted slow-down as

its customers worked through significant inventories that

were stockpiled during the COVID period. Danaher spoke

of improved market dynamics in the bioprocess sector and

expects growth to accelerate through the course of this year

and into 2025.

Edwards Lifesciences (-32%) fell 30% on earnings, as

forecast growth in its core TAVR medical device fell below

expectations. The company revised its full-year guidance

from 8-10% to 5-7% growth, citing capacity constraints in

the operating rooms used to perform the TAVR procedures.

While not clear on timing, the company expects this to be

temporary and for procedure growth to return to the target

8-10% range over time. The market took a more negative

view – raising concerns around i) TAVR penetration, as it is

increasingly challenging to identify, and treat these patients;

and ii) competition – with Edward’s defending its 60% global

market share from several smaller competitors.

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

August 2024

$

0.98

Share Price

as at 31 July 2024

Warrant Price

$

0.03

DISCOUNT

1

2.4

%


MLN NAV

$

1.01

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 31 July 2024

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.03

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

216m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$212m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

Dexcom (-40%) fell 40% after releasing earnings. Like

Edwards, Dexcom unexpectedly lowered its growth

expectations for the year, with the company lowering its sales

growth guidance from 20% to 4-8% in the second half. Unlike

Edwards, these headwinds were somewhat self-inflicted.

This is a company that has executed well, growing sales of

its continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) nearly 30% p.a. over

the last five years to around $4 billion globally. With numerous

developments underway, including a major salesforce

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 July 2024

29

%

11

%

18

%


FINANCIALS

20

%

GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT

as at 31 July 2024

5

%

WESTERN

EUROPE

86

%

NORTH

AMERICA

16

%

9

%


ASIA PACIFIC

2

%

CASH &

DERIVATIVES

HEALTH CARE

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

4

%


CONSUMER

STAPLES

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

restructure; the launch of new consumer-facing CGM; and the

ramp up of two manufacturing facilities, the company has run

into some challenges which have impacted its growth.

3
JULY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

(in local currency) during the month

GREGGS

+13

%

UNITED HEALTH

GROUP

+13

%

MSCI

+12

%

DEXCOM

-32

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 July 2024

AMAZON

9

%

MASTERCARD

7

%

FLOOR & DÉCOR

6

%

MICROSOFT

6

%

DANAHER

CORPORATION

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 July 2024

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+2.1%+1.9%+9.6%(8.4%)+10.2%

Adjusted NAV Return(1.7%)+1.6%+14.2%(0.5%)+9.4%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (1.5%)+2.6%+17.2%+1.5%+12.4%

Benchmark Index^+4.9%+7.9%+16.7%+6.7%+10.6%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.

EDWARDS

LIFESCIENCES

-40

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 July 2024

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

Share Price Total Shareholder Return

Nov

2007

Nov

2011

Nov

2013

Nov

2014

Nov

2015

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2016

Nov

2020

Nov

2012

Nov

2022

Nov

2017

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2021

Nov

2023

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised

for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on

29 April 2024

»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin

shareholders in early May 2024

»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders

on 16 May 2024

»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the

NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted

down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash

dividends declared on the shares with a record date

during the period commencing on the date of allotment of

the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before

the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin

»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated

to it from the Board to invest according

to the Management Agreement

and other written policies. Marlin’s

portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds

Management Limited. Sam Dickie

(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),

and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty

(Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing the Marlin

portfolio. Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in

Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.