MLN – August 2024 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for July was down -1.5%,
while the adjusted NAV return was down -1.7%. This
compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/
S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was up
+4.9%.
While headline equity returns were solid for the month, with
global equities up +1.8%, there was a lot of movement under
the hood. A weaker than expected inflation number, coupled
with the federal reserve talking down interest rates drove
a big fall in interest rates. This in turn spurred a sharp rally
in smaller companies and more indebted companies. For
example, the Russell 2000 index in the US (heavier weighting
of smaller companies) outperformed the bellwhether S&P500
by 13% over a two-week period - an unusually sharp move.
This, coupled with increased investor scepticism around
the potential for future returns from investment in artificial
intelligence (AI), saw growth stocks underperform.
Reporting season is underway, with around half of US
companies having reported by-month end. Around 75% of
companies beat earnings expectations, but only 56% beat
revenue estimates, a slight drop versus recent quarters.
Forward-looking earnings expectations for the second half
have come down by around 1%.
Portfolio news
MSCI (+12%) reported solid second quarter results.
While MSCI’s customer base is going through cyclical
headwinds, MSCI continues to gain market share in its core
index business. In the previous quarter, retention rates fell
unexpectedly but have rebounded to normal levels this quarter
as well as growth of new subscriptions. MSCI’s expansion
of customised products and solutions proved a success as
wealth management and hedge fund sales grew 12% year-on-
year (y/y) and 15% y/y respectively in the quarter. The company
is also benefiting from a global shift toward passive investing
as passive related revenue grew 18% y/y, now with $5 trillion of
assets tied to MSCI indices. Private asset indexing continues
to be another growth avenue. In July MSCI announced 130
private asset indices as they begin to penetrate this nascent
market.
UnitedHealth (+13%) reported better than feared earnings
given ongoing industry concerns around increasing medical
costs. Health insurers like UnitedHealth have seen a period
of elevated costs as patients are getting treated at higher
rates than expected. Coupled with a more challenging
reimbursement backdrop, industry margins have been
pressured. However, UnitedHealth has shown the benefits
of its scale and integrated model (where they also provide
healthcare services) and has been able to stabilise its medical
costs and its margins. This has put the company in a stronger
position to take market share in the core Medicare Advantage
insurance markets as its competitors focus on improving
margins versus growing membership.
Greggs (+13%) was up in the month after reporting a solid first
half start to the year. First half sales were better than expected
at 13.8%. Greggs continues to develop its menu to suit a
larger customer base and cater for evening customers. The
push into selling to evening customers has been successful to
date. In the first half, Greggs rolled out 51 new stores and is
targeting 140-160 this year, with a long-term goal of reaching
3.5k stores (currently 2.5k). Greggs continues to execute well,
and its value proposition remains strong. Greggs is taking
market share (now the #1 breakfast provider in the UK).
Danaher (+11%) had a strong earnings report which renewed
confidence in the recovery story for its core bioprocessing
segment. The bioprocessing industry (which provides
the equipment and consumables used to make complex
drugs) has been going through a protracted slow-down as
its customers worked through significant inventories that
were stockpiled during the COVID period. Danaher spoke
of improved market dynamics in the bioprocess sector and
expects growth to accelerate through the course of this year
and into 2025.
Edwards Lifesciences (-32%) fell 30% on earnings, as
forecast growth in its core TAVR medical device fell below
expectations. The company revised its full-year guidance
from 8-10% to 5-7% growth, citing capacity constraints in
the operating rooms used to perform the TAVR procedures.
While not clear on timing, the company expects this to be
temporary and for procedure growth to return to the target
8-10% range over time. The market took a more negative
view – raising concerns around i) TAVR penetration, as it is
increasingly challenging to identify, and treat these patients;
and ii) competition – with Edward’s defending its 60% global
market share from several smaller competitors.
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
August 2024
$
0.98
Share Price
as at 31 July 2024
Warrant Price
$
0.03
DISCOUNT
1
2.4
%
MLN NAV
$
1.01
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 July 2024
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.03
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
216m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$212m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
Dexcom (-40%) fell 40% after releasing earnings. Like
Edwards, Dexcom unexpectedly lowered its growth
expectations for the year, with the company lowering its sales
growth guidance from 20% to 4-8% in the second half. Unlike
Edwards, these headwinds were somewhat self-inflicted.
This is a company that has executed well, growing sales of
its continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) nearly 30% p.a. over
the last five years to around $4 billion globally. With numerous
developments underway, including a major salesforce
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 July 2024
29
%
11
%
18
%
FINANCIALS
20
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 July 2024
5
%
WESTERN
EUROPE
86
%
NORTH
AMERICA
16
%
9
%
ASIA PACIFIC
2
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
HEALTH CARE
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
4
%
CONSUMER
STAPLES
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
restructure; the launch of new consumer-facing CGM; and the
ramp up of two manufacturing facilities, the company has run
into some challenges which have impacted its growth.
3
JULY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
(in local currency) during the month
GREGGS
+13
%
UNITED HEALTH
GROUP
+13
%
MSCI
+12
%
DEXCOM
-32
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 July 2024
AMAZON
9
%
MASTERCARD
7
%
FLOOR & DÉCOR
6
%
MICROSOFT
6
%
DANAHER
CORPORATION
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 July 2024
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+2.1%+1.9%+9.6%(8.4%)+10.2%
Adjusted NAV Return(1.7%)+1.6%+14.2%(0.5%)+9.4%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (1.5%)+2.6%+17.2%+1.5%+12.4%
Benchmark Index^+4.9%+7.9%+16.7%+6.7%+10.6%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
EDWARDS
LIFESCIENCES
-40
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 July 2024
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Nov
2023
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on
29 April 2024
»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin
shareholders in early May 2024
»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 16 May 2024
»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the
NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment of
the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before
the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest according
to the Management Agreement
and other written policies. Marlin’s
portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds
Management Limited. Sam Dickie
(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),
and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty
(Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.