Global Dairy Update August 2024
• Fonterra’s climate targets get tick of approval by Science
Based Target initiative.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly
production increased. US monthly
production decreased.
• New Zealand, Australia and US
monthly exports increased. EU monthly
exports decreased.
• Asia and Latin America monthly imports
increased. Middle East & Africa and China
monthly imports decreased.
• Fonterra New Zealand’s collections for July
were 20.6 million kgMS, 9.0% above July
last season. Season-to-date collections are
35 million kgMS, 4.1% above last season.
• Fonterra’s Australia collections in July were
5.5 million kgMS, 1.1% below July last season.
• KickStart Breakfast celebrates 15-year milestone.
Key Dates
25 September 2024
FY24 Annual Results Announcement
14 November 2024
Fonterra Co-operative Group Annual Meeting
AUGUST 2024
%%%
%%%%
%
Change for July 2024
compared to July 2023
Change for July 2024
compared July 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to July 2024
Change for the 12 months
to July 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
0.43.48.4
3.10.20.5
1.0
0.6
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand, Australia and
EU monthly production
increased. US monthly
production decreased
New Zealand milk
production increased 8.4%
on a litres basis (up 9.2%
on milk solids basis) for
July compared to the same
period the year prior.
The production increase was
mainly due to favourable
weather conditions which
improved pasture quality and
resulted in higher milk yields.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12
months to July was down
0.6% on the previous
comparable period.
Collections for July represent
less than 2% of the full
season forecast.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for
July, see page 5 for details.
Australia milk
production increased 3.4%
in June compared to the
same period the year prior.
The production increase was
mainly due to favourable
weather conditions in
Northern and Eastern
Victoria, partially offset by
colder weather affecting
production in Western
Victoria and Tasmania.
Australia milk production
for the 12 months to June
was up 3.1% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
July, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production¹
increased 1.0% in June
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The production increase
was driven by favourable
weather conditions in France,
Poland and Italy. Additionally,
European raw milk prices
continued to increase due
to higher seasonal demand
for dairy products and
decreasing milk supply from
other producing regions.
EU milk production for
the 12 months to June was
up 0.2% on the previous
comparable period.
US milk production
decreased 0.4 % in July
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The production decrease
was mainly driven by smaller
herd sizes and decreased milk
yield per cow due to a bird
flu outbreak and heat stress
affecting the country. This was
partially offset by higher milk
yields in Texas and Kansas.
US milk production for
the 12 months to July was
down 0.5 % on the previous
comparable period.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand, Australia
and US monthly exports
increased. EU monthly
exports decreased
New Zealand dairy
exports increased 11.5%, or
28,870 MT, in July compared
to the same period last year.
The increase was mainly due
to higher export volumes
of cheese to the United
Kingdom under the recently
implemented NZ-UK Fair
Trade Agreement, offsetting
lower export volumes of
WMP to China and Algeria
for the month.
Exports for the 12 months
to July were up 1.9%, or
65,808 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to high
export volumes of WMP to
Indonesia and the Middle
East, alongside SMP and fluid
milk products to China and
Southeast Asia.
EU dairy exports
decreased 8.3%, or
52,739 MT, in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was mainly
due to lower export volumes
of SMP and WMP to China,
driven by weak demand
and a preference for
New Zealand dairy products
influenced by tariffs.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were down 2.6%, or
177,454 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
ongoing lower export
volumes of SMP, fluid milk
products and butter to key
markets including China,
Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the
United States.
US dairy exports
increased 1.3%, or 3,060 MT,
in June compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher export volumes
of cheese and whey to
meet strong demand from
Southeast Asia, Canada, and
South Korea.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were down 3.4%, or
97,733 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to lower
export volumes of powders
as demand from key markets,
such as Mexico and China,
continues to decrease.
Australia dairy exports
increased 33.8%, or
16,096 MT, in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to the prior year's low export
volumes of cheese and SMP,
resulting from the mismatch
between domestic milk prices
and global commodity prices.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were up 2.0%, or
13,311 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to higher
levels of production resulting
in more exportable surplus.
Additionally, export volumes
of infant formula have
increased as major Australian
producers win contracts to
the US.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%
%
%
Change for July 2024
compared to July 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to July 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
1.3
2.0
11.5
2.6
3.4
33.8
8.3
1.9
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Asia and Latin America
monthly imports
increased. Middle East &
Africa and China monthly
imports decreased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
1.5%, or 3,130 MT, in June
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly
due to ongoing high import
volumes of fluid milk
products by the Dominican
Republic and lactose
by Uruguay.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were up 6.2%, or
148,722 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
continuous high import
volumes of cheese by Mexico
and Brazil.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 13.2%, or 55,485 MT,
in June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes of
fluid milk products and whey
by Southeast Asia.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were up 8.3%, or
406,111 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to higher
import volumes of WMP by
Malaysia and Bangladesh,
and fluid milk products by
Vietnam and the Philippines.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 2.7%, or
13,509 MT, in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower import volumes of
WMP by Algeria and cultured
products by Iraq and Congo.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were up 5.3%, or
300,702 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
ongoing higher import
volumes of SMP by Saudi
Arabia, alongside increased
fluid milk products and WMP
shipments by UAE.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
4.9%, or 12,722 MT, in July
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower import volumes of
fluid milk products, SMP and
AMF. This was partially offset
by slightly higher import
volumes of infant formula.
Imports for the 12 months
to July were down 12.0%, or
387,737 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to an
ongoing decline in import
volumes of fluid milk
products, cheese, and SMP,
primarily from Germany,
Poland, and Australia.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%%%%
%%
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for July 2024
compared to July 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
4.913.21.5
8.35.3
%
Change for the 12 months
to July 2024
12.0
2.7
6.2
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%%
%%
Season-to-date 1 July to 31 July
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July
compared to prior season
Change for July 2024
compared to July 2023
Change for July 2024
compared to July 2023
Change for July 2024
compared to July 2023
Change for July 2024
compared to July 2023
1.13.6
20.8
10.39.0
1.18.94.1
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections in July were
5.5 million kgMS, 1.1% below
July last season.
The decrease was mainly
due to unfavourable weather
conditions in Tasmania,
impacting pasture and
fodder availability. This
was partially offset by
favourable pasture growth in
Western Victoria.
North Island milk
collections in July were
18.9 million kgMS, 10.3%
above July last season.
The increase was mainly
due to ongoing favourable
pasture conditions across the
region, in addition to some
farmers calving earlier in the
season resulting in an uplift
in the milk curve.
Season-to-date collections
are 30.8 million kgMS, 8.9%
above last season.
South Island milk
collections in July were
1.7 million kgMS, 3.6% below
July last season.
The decrease was mainly
due to unfavourable weather
conditions and low sunlight
hours impacting pasture
growth. This was partially
offset by recent rainfall
in some regions relieving
dry conditions.
Season-to-date collections
are 4.3 million kgMS, 20.8%
behind last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for July were
20.6 million kgMS, 9.0%
above July last season.
The increase was mainly
due to favourable weather
and pasture conditions in
the North Island, offsetting
unfavourable weather
conditions continuously
impacting collections in the
South Island.
As is normal for this time of
the season, collections for
July represent less than 2%
of the full season forecast.
Season-to-date collections
are 35 million kgMS, 4.1%
above last season.
%%
%%
%
%%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
AUG OCT
JAN MAY AUG NOV JUN
MAR
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
Developing weakness in the US labour market helped to
shift the focus away from inflation and saw increased calls
for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September.
New Zealand has experienced disinflationary pressures at a
quicker pace and this led the RBNZ to lower the Official Cash
Rate in August. On balance, this combination of factors led to a
rise in the NZD/USD exchange rate to above 61.5 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
trading event 362
20 August 2024:
The next trading event will be held on 3 September 2024. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
6.3
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,943
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
33.3
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 4,274/MT
0.0
CHEDDAR
USD 3,477/MT
7.0
WMP
USD 2,630/MT
3.8
SMP
USD 7,244/MT
4.8
AMF
USD 6,608/MT
3.5
BUTTER
33,349
MT
LATEST AUCTION
67,332
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Fonterra’s climate
targets get tick of
approval by Science
Based Target initiative
Fonterra's Director
of Sustainability
Charlotte Rutherford says
she’s delighted the Co-op’s
emissions reduction targets
have been validated by
the Science Based Target
initiative (SBTi).
SBTi is a globally recognised
organisation that defines and
promotes best practice in
science-based target setting.
Validation of targets mean
they are aligned to the Paris
Agreement to limit global
warming to 1.5°C.
“There’s a lot of rigour
applied to the verification
process by SBTi, which is
essential, and I thank our
teams that have worked on
this,” says Rutherford.
“Having credible science
backed targets is really
important to us and our
customers. It’s now up to
all of us to keep making
progress towards these
targets to maintain our
position as one of the world’s
lowest emissions suppliers of
dairy at scale.”
Last year Fonterra set a new
on farm emissions reduction
target and increased its
scope 1 and 2 targets as part
of its work to be a long-term
sustainable Co-op. Since
then, the Co-op has been
working on the validation of
these targets by SBTi.
Scope 1 and 2
Fonterra commits to reduce
absolute scope 1 and 2
GHG emissions by 50.4%
by FY2030 from a FY2018
base year.¹
Forest Land and
Agriculture Guidance
(FLAG)
Fonterra commits to reduce
scope 1 and 3 FLAG GHG
emissions from dairy 30%
per tonne of fat-and-protein-
corrected milk by FY2030
from a FY2018 base year.²
Fonterra also commits to
no deforestation across its
primary deforestation-linked
commodities, with a target
date of 31 December 2025.
In seeking validation, the
Co-op was required to
set an additional scope 3
energy and industrial target.
Whereas Fonterra’s other
targets cover emissions
reduction, this target focuses
on the climate ambitions
of vendors and customers
and their alignment to
science-based targets.
Scope 3 Energy and
Industrial Engagement
Fonterra also commits that
78.2% of its suppliers and
customers by emissions,
covering purchased goods
and services, capital goods,
upstream and downstream
transportation and
distribution, business travel,
and processing of sold
products, will have science-
based targets by FY28.
1 The target boundary includes land-related emissions and removals from bioenergy feedstocks.
2 The target includes FLAG emissions and removals.
Our Co-op
8
KickStart Breakfast
celebrates 15-year
milestone
A community partnership
between Fonterra,
Sanitarium and the Ministry
of Social Development
today celebrated its 15-year
anniversary at an Auckland
school that has been part of
KickStart Breakfast since the
programme began.
Representatives from
government, Fonterra
and Sanitarium attended
the event at Birdwood
School in West Auckland
to celebrate the
programme’s achievements.
Social Development and
Employment Minister Louise
Upston joined the milestone
celebration today and said
KickStart Breakfast is a great
example of business and
community sectors working
with government to deliver
positive change to children
and families.
“Making sure hungry children
get a good breakfast is an
investment in their learning.
They are in a much better
place to learn and achieve
their potential.”
KickStart Breakfast currently
serves Anchor™ milk and
Sanitarium Weet-Bix™ to
more than 42,000 students
every school day with 66%
of those at primary school
age. Any public school in
the country can join the
programme, which is found
in over 1,400 of a total of
2,500 schools nationwide.
Speaking at the event,
Fonterra’s Director of
Global Sustainability,
Stakeholder Affairs and
Trade Simon Tucker said the
Co-operative is committed
to positively impacting and
connecting communities
throughout New Zealand.
“We’re incredibly proud
to deliver good quality
dairy nutrition to help fuel
tamariki and rangatahi across
New Zealand so they can
achieve their best every
school day.
“We’re grateful to play
our part in supporting our
communities, alongside
our partners, teachers,
student leaders, whanau
and the 4,000 strong
volunteers, who generously
give their time and energy
to supporting their local
breakfast clubs,” says
Mr Tucker.
The programme helps
students start the day
happier and more settled,
with a greater ability
to focus on learning,
according to a report by the
Akina Foundation.
The report showed this led
to societal benefits including
better school attendance,
improved behaviours,
and greater educational
outcomes for students,
as well as less time and
financial stress for whanau,
with more spending available
for other necessities.
Sanitarium General Manager
Michael Barton said it was
humbling to be able to give
back to communities.
“This milestone celebration
speaks of an incredible
journey for Sanitarium as it
is core to our purpose and
commitment to promote
healthy eating choices and
giving communities access to
wholesome food.”
Schools around the country
will be holding their
own KickStart Breakfast
celebrations throughout
this month to celebrate the
15-year milestone.
Michael Barton, Minister Upston, Simon Tucker
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to June; New Zealand and US to July.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to June; New Zealand to July.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to June; China to July.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
J U LY
2024
J U LY
2023
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2024/25
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2023/24
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
20.618.99.0%35.033.64.1%
North Island18.917.110.3%30.828.28.9%
South Island1.71.8(3.6%)4.35.4(20.8%)
Australia5.55.6(1.1%)5.55.6(1.1%)
2023/24 season
forecast Farmgate
Milk Price (FGMP)
update
2024/25 season
forecast Farmgate
Milk Price (FGMP)
update
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
FGMP (NZD)
NZD/USD RATE AT
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
CONVERSION
RATE FOR
2023/24
SEASON
PERCENTAGE
OF FORECAST
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
FOR 2023/24
SEASON
HEDGED
PERCENTAGE
OF FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
OPTION
COVER
REMAINING
IN HEDGED
AMOUNT
RANGE MID-
POINT
29 May 2024$7.70-
$7.90
$7.800.61440.612699%12%
21 March 2024$7.50-
$8.10
$7.800.60820.612592%17%
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
FGMP (NZD)
NZD/USD RATE AT
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
CONVERSION
RATE FOR
2024/25
SEASON
PERCENTAGE
OF FORECAST
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
FOR 2024/25
SEASON
HEDGED
PERCENTAGE
OF FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
OPTION
COVER
REMAINING
IN HEDGED
AMOUNT
RANGE MID-
POINT
23 Aug 2024$7.75-
$9.25
$8.500.61370.611067%16%
29 May 2024$7.25-
$8.75
$8.000.61440.613049%11%
As at the most recent update to the 2024/25 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 23 August 2024:
• Fonterra had hedged approximately 67% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the
2024/25 season Farmgate Milk Price.
• Of that 67%, approximately 16% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet
expired or been exercised.
• If the remaining 33% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 23 August 2024 spot
rate of 0.6137, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2024 season would be 0.6110.
• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the opening forecast for the
2024/25 season Forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 29 May 2024.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
11
Supplementary Information
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(20 AUGUST 2024)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2024)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
33,34967,332
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
2.4%6.4%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,9433,825
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
36.5%27.1%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
6.3%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
12
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update August 20242024-08-29
“• Fonterra’s climate targets get tick of approval by Science Based Target initiative. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly production increased. US monthly production decreased. • New Zealand, Australia and US monthly exports increased. EU month…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update October 20242024-10-30
“•Changes to Fonterra Management Team to support the next phase of its strategic delivery. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE •New Zealand, Australia and US monthly production increased. EU monthly production decreased. • Ne w Zealand, EU and US monthly exports increased. Australia monthly e…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update September 20242024-09-29
“• Fonterra continues momentum in FY24, announces special dividend. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand and Australia monthly production increased. EU and US monthly production decreased. • Australia, EU and US monthly exports increased. New Zealand monthly exports dec…”