MLN – September 2024 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for August was down -0.9%,
while the adjusted NAV return was down -1.1%. This compared
with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap
Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was down -1.0%.
August was an eventful month in global markets. It started with
a sharp market sell-off on disappointing US economic data and
an interest rate hike in Japan, followed by a fairly rapid recovery.
On August 5th, the Japanese Topix market fell 12%, its biggest
daily drop since Black Monday in 1987. In the US, weaker
manufacturing and jobs reports led to growing fears around
a recession. However, a series of strong corporate earnings
reports and the prospect of lower US interest rates helped equity
markets rebound in the second half of the month. The US S&P
500 Index ended up 2.4%; Europe up 1.4% and even Japan only
ended down 2.9% despite the large decline earlier in the month.
Currencies also saw large moves; the NZ dollar rose 5% against
the US dollar over the month.
Portfolio
Floor and Décor (+15%) second quarter earnings at the
beginning of August were worse than expected. While same-
store sales growth for the quarter was weaker than expected
there were green shoots. Same-store sale growth improved
for the first time in a year and a half (-9.0% vs. -11.6% for the
previous quarter). Given the macro headwinds the company
is still facing, the company decided to prudently reduce their
store roll out target for 2025 to 25. One of Floor & Décor’s main
competitors, LL Flooring, went into bankruptcy during the month
given the challenging environment, demonstrating the strength of
Floor & Décor’s position. We believe, even with the challenging
housing environment, Floor & Décor continues to take market
share. Once cyclical headwinds abate Floor & Décor will be in
the best position to reaccelerate revenue growth and continue to
take market share.
Our medical device companies mostly outperformed for
the month, including Intuitive Surgical (+11%), Edwards
Lifesciences (+11%) and Boston Scientific (+11%). Underlying
surgical volumes continue to grow in the US, helped by
demographic factors, Covid backlogs and new medical device
launches. US hospital utilisation rates and capex are running
at elevated levels versus history, and Intuitive Surgical, Boston
Scientific and Edwards are all benefiting from new product
launches. But this high demand for surgical procedures is
causing capacity constraints in some areas. As we noted last
month, Edward’s reported slower growth in its core TAVR
business due to capacity concerns, which caused a 30% stock
price decline. However, given higher hospital capex investment,
we expect this should be resolved over time.
Tencent (+5%) reported during the quarter and again
demonstrated its ability to outgrow peers against a tough China
macro backdrop. Better than expected growth in its domestic
gaming and advertising segments, offset slower growth in the
more economically exposed payments segment. Tencent’s
profit margins were again the standout performer, as the high
incremental margins on fast growth businesses such as video
accounts and ecommerce, coupled with ongoing efficiency
initiatives, drove gross margins higher.
Amazon (-5%) fell during the month on weaker than expected
second quarter earnings. AWS, Amazon’s cloud computing
platform, outperformed expectations again with revenue
growth reaccelerating for the third quarter in a row to 19%.
AWS margins were also strong at 35%, ahead of expectations.
Amazon’s eCommerce business and fast-growing digital
advertising business were weaker than expected in the quarter.
Meanwhile company operating income and margins came in
better-than-expected, demonstrating Amazon’s continued focus
on driving margin expansion. Disappointment came from next
quarter’s guidance which was lower than expectation on revenue
and operating income. While Amazon is still gaining efficiencies
in its eCommerce platform, they are investing into their Kuiper
platform to offer customers satellite internet in the future.
Alphabet (-5%) had a weak month as a long-awaited court
case brought by the Department of Justice was ruled against
Alphabet. US District Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Alphabet
has violated US antitrust law with its search business given its
monopolistic position. In question are the payments Alphabet
makes to Apple to make Google the default search engine
across Apple’s products, therefore hindering competition and
enabling Alphabet to maintain their monopoly position. Alphabet
plans on appealing this ruling. The next step in the case is
proposing remedies to fix the situation. This is also likely to
be appealed depending on what remedies are proposed. We
continue to maintain a close eye on this situation but expect the
final outcome to take a number of years.
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
September 2024
$
0.96
Share Price
as at 31 August 2024
Warrant Price
$
0.03
DISCOUNT
1
3.2
%
MLN NAV
$
1.00
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 August 2024
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.03
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
216m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$208m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
Dollar General (-31%) and Dollar Tree (-19%) both fell after
Dollar General’s earnings report late in the month. The company
not only reported further weakness in its core low-income
consumer, but also that increased competition meant Dollar
General was not able to gain share in the middle-to-higher
income consumers that are trading down. During the GFC,
dollar stores saw sales growth accelerate from low-single-digits
to high-single-digits. This has not been repeated in the current
environment, with Dollar General revenue largely flat in the
quarter. The low-income consumer (which makes up 60% of
the customer base) continues to reduce spending in the face
of the higher cost of living. While higher-income consumers are
also tightening their belts, Dollar General is seeing increased
competition from large discount stores like Walmart and
ecommerce retailers, with the store announcing increased
discounting to try and win these customers back. Dollar General
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 August 2024
29
%
11
%
19
%
FINANCIALS
20
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 August 2024
5
%
WESTERN
EUROPE
85
%
NORTH
AMERICA
16
%
10
%
ASIA PACIFIC
1
%
CONSUMER
STAPLES
HEALTH CARE
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
4
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
was a small position in our portfolio, and we believe the latest
miss versus our investment thesis, particularly on elevated
competitive concerns, is enough to warrant an exit. While Dollar
Tree does operate a different retail model (more like a traditional
dollar store) and targets a higher income consumer than Dollar
General, we felt it was prudent to reduce our position until we get
more clarity on what is happening in the discount retail market.
Portfolio activity
We exited Dollar General during the month.
3
AUGUST’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
(in local currency) during the month
FLOOR & DÉCOR
HOLDINGS
+15
%
NETFLIX INC
+12
%
EDWARDS
LIFESCIENCES
+11
%
DOLLAR GENERAL
-19
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 August 2024
AMAZON
9
%
MASTERCARD
7
%
MICROSOFT
7
%
FLOOR & DÉCOR
6
%
ALPHABET
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 16 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 August 2024
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(2.0%)(2.1%)+10.0%(8.4%)+10.0%
Adjusted NAV Return(1.1%)(0.9%)+14.0%(0.9%)+8.6%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (0.9%)(0.0%)+17.6%+1.0%+11.7%
Benchmark Index^(1.0%)+4.7%+16.7%+5.6%+10.4%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
DOLLAR TREE
-31
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 August 2024
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Nov
2023
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on 29 April
2024
»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin
shareholders in early May 2024
»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 16 May 2024
»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the
NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment of
the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before
the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest according
to the Management Agreement
and other written policies. Marlin’s
portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds
Management Limited. Sam Dickie
(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),
and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty
(Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.