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MLN – September 2024 monthly update

Investor Presentation10 September 2024MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for August was down -0.9%,

while the adjusted NAV return was down -1.1%. This compared

with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap

Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was down -1.0%.

August was an eventful month in global markets. It started with

a sharp market sell-off on disappointing US economic data and

an interest rate hike in Japan, followed by a fairly rapid recovery.

On August 5th, the Japanese Topix market fell 12%, its biggest

daily drop since Black Monday in 1987. In the US, weaker

manufacturing and jobs reports led to growing fears around

a recession. However, a series of strong corporate earnings

reports and the prospect of lower US interest rates helped equity

markets rebound in the second half of the month. The US S&P

500 Index ended up 2.4%; Europe up 1.4% and even Japan only

ended down 2.9% despite the large decline earlier in the month.

Currencies also saw large moves; the NZ dollar rose 5% against

the US dollar over the month.

Portfolio

Floor and Décor (+15%) second quarter earnings at the

beginning of August were worse than expected. While same-

store sales growth for the quarter was weaker than expected

there were green shoots. Same-store sale growth improved

for the first time in a year and a half (-9.0% vs. -11.6% for the

previous quarter). Given the macro headwinds the company

is still facing, the company decided to prudently reduce their

store roll out target for 2025 to 25. One of Floor & Décor’s main

competitors, LL Flooring, went into bankruptcy during the month

given the challenging environment, demonstrating the strength of

Floor & Décor’s position. We believe, even with the challenging

housing environment, Floor & Décor continues to take market

share. Once cyclical headwinds abate Floor & Décor will be in

the best position to reaccelerate revenue growth and continue to

take market share.

Our medical device companies mostly outperformed for

the month, including Intuitive Surgical (+11%), Edwards

Lifesciences (+11%) and Boston Scientific (+11%). Underlying

surgical volumes continue to grow in the US, helped by

demographic factors, Covid backlogs and new medical device

launches. US hospital utilisation rates and capex are running

at elevated levels versus history, and Intuitive Surgical, Boston

Scientific and Edwards are all benefiting from new product

launches. But this high demand for surgical procedures is

causing capacity constraints in some areas. As we noted last

month, Edward’s reported slower growth in its core TAVR

business due to capacity concerns, which caused a 30% stock

price decline. However, given higher hospital capex investment,

we expect this should be resolved over time.

Tencent (+5%) reported during the quarter and again

demonstrated its ability to outgrow peers against a tough China

macro backdrop. Better than expected growth in its domestic

gaming and advertising segments, offset slower growth in the

more economically exposed payments segment. Tencent’s

profit margins were again the standout performer, as the high

incremental margins on fast growth businesses such as video

accounts and ecommerce, coupled with ongoing efficiency

initiatives, drove gross margins higher.

Amazon (-5%) fell during the month on weaker than expected

second quarter earnings. AWS, Amazon’s cloud computing

platform, outperformed expectations again with revenue

growth reaccelerating for the third quarter in a row to 19%.

AWS margins were also strong at 35%, ahead of expectations.

Amazon’s eCommerce business and fast-growing digital

advertising business were weaker than expected in the quarter.

Meanwhile company operating income and margins came in

better-than-expected, demonstrating Amazon’s continued focus

on driving margin expansion. Disappointment came from next

quarter’s guidance which was lower than expectation on revenue

and operating income. While Amazon is still gaining efficiencies

in its eCommerce platform, they are investing into their Kuiper

platform to offer customers satellite internet in the future.

Alphabet (-5%) had a weak month as a long-awaited court

case brought by the Department of Justice was ruled against

Alphabet. US District Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Alphabet

has violated US antitrust law with its search business given its

monopolistic position. In question are the payments Alphabet

makes to Apple to make Google the default search engine

across Apple’s products, therefore hindering competition and

enabling Alphabet to maintain their monopoly position. Alphabet

plans on appealing this ruling. The next step in the case is

proposing remedies to fix the situation. This is also likely to

be appealed depending on what remedies are proposed. We

continue to maintain a close eye on this situation but expect the

final outcome to take a number of years.

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

September 2024

$

0.96

Share Price

as at 31 August 2024

Warrant Price

$

0.03

DISCOUNT

1

3.2

%


MLN NAV

$

1.00

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 31 August 2024

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.03

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

216m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$208m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

Dollar General (-31%) and Dollar Tree (-19%) both fell after

Dollar General’s earnings report late in the month. The company

not only reported further weakness in its core low-income

consumer, but also that increased competition meant Dollar

General was not able to gain share in the middle-to-higher

income consumers that are trading down. During the GFC,

dollar stores saw sales growth accelerate from low-single-digits

to high-single-digits. This has not been repeated in the current

environment, with Dollar General revenue largely flat in the

quarter. The low-income consumer (which makes up 60% of

the customer base) continues to reduce spending in the face

of the higher cost of living. While higher-income consumers are

also tightening their belts, Dollar General is seeing increased

competition from large discount stores like Walmart and

ecommerce retailers, with the store announcing increased

discounting to try and win these customers back. Dollar General

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 August 2024

29

%

11

%

19

%


FINANCIALS

20

%

GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT

as at 31 August 2024

5

%

WESTERN

EUROPE

85

%

NORTH

AMERICA

16

%

10

%


ASIA PACIFIC

1

%

CONSUMER

STAPLES

HEALTH CARE

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

4

%


CASH &

DERIVATIVES

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

was a small position in our portfolio, and we believe the latest

miss versus our investment thesis, particularly on elevated

competitive concerns, is enough to warrant an exit. While Dollar

Tree does operate a different retail model (more like a traditional

dollar store) and targets a higher income consumer than Dollar

General, we felt it was prudent to reduce our position until we get

more clarity on what is happening in the discount retail market.

Portfolio activity

We exited Dollar General during the month.

3
AUGUST’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

(in local currency) during the month

FLOOR & DÉCOR

HOLDINGS

+15

%

NETFLIX INC

+12

%

EDWARDS

LIFESCIENCES

+11

%

DOLLAR GENERAL

-19

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 August 2024

AMAZON

9

%

MASTERCARD

7

%

MICROSOFT

7

%

FLOOR & DÉCOR

6

%

ALPHABET

6

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 16 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 August 2024

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(2.0%)(2.1%)+10.0%(8.4%)+10.0%

Adjusted NAV Return(1.1%)(0.9%)+14.0%(0.9%)+8.6%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (0.9%)(0.0%)+17.6%+1.0%+11.7%

Benchmark Index^(1.0%)+4.7%+16.7%+5.6%+10.4%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.

DOLLAR TREE

-31

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 August 2024

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

Share Price Total Shareholder Return

Nov

2007

Nov

2011

Nov

2013

Nov

2014

Nov

2015

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2016

Nov

2020

Nov

2012

Nov

2022

Nov

2017

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2021

Nov

2023

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised

for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on 29 April

2024

»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin

shareholders in early May 2024

»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders

on 16 May 2024

»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the

NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted

down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash

dividends declared on the shares with a record date

during the period commencing on the date of allotment of

the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before

the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin

»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated

to it from the Board to invest according

to the Management Agreement

and other written policies. Marlin’s

portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds

Management Limited. Sam Dickie

(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),

and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty

(Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing the Marlin

portfolio. Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in

Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.