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Northington Partners Independent Report

Annual Report4 November 2024FSFConsumer Staples

4 November 2024

Northington Partners Independent Report


The attached independent report, prepared by Northington Partners at the request of the Fonterra Co-

operative Council (on behalf of Fonterra), for the purposes of s109LA of the Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001, has been provided to shareholders by the Fonterra Co-operative Council.


ENDS


For further information contact:


Anya Wicks

Company Secretary

Phone: +64 21 283 0945

---

FONTERRA
CO-OPERATIVE

COUNCIL

Review of FY24 Performance

Fonterra Co-operative Group

November 2024

Review of FY24 Performance |
2

Important Notice

Declarations

This report is dated 1 November 2024 and has been prepared by Northington Partners at the request

of the Fonterra Co-operative Council (“

FCC”) on behalf of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited

(“

Fonterra”) for the purposes of s109LA of the Dairy Industry Restructuring Act 2001. The report is

intended to provide Fonterra shareholders and unitholders with an independent review of Fonterra’s

performance for FY24.

The analysis and views expressed in this report have been prepared independently of Fonterra and

FCC by Northington Partners. Fonterra has not provided any input into the content of this report and

provides no warranty or assurance as to the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information

in it. Fonterra does not accept or assume any duty, responsibility or liability to any party (including,

without limitation, in negligence) in connection with this report.

Qualifications

Northington Partners provides an independent corporate advisory service to companies operating

throughout New Zealand. The company specialises in corporate advisory, mergers and acquisitions,

capital raising support, expert opinions, financial instrument valuations, and business and share

valuations. Northington Partners is retained by a mix of publicly listed companies, substantial

privately held companies, and state-owned enterprises.

The individuals responsible for preparing this report are Greg Anderson B.Com, M.Com (Hons), Ph.D,

Jonathan Burke B.Com (Hons) and Mathew Rooza B.Com, CPA. Each individual has a wealth of

experience in providing independent corporate finance advice to a wide range of clients.

Disclaimer and Restrictions on the Scope of our Work

In preparing this report, Northington Partners has relied on publicly available information, unless

stated otherwise. Northington Partners has not performed anything in the nature of an audit of that

information, and does not express any opinion on the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of the

information provided to us and upon which we have relied.

Northington Partners has used the provided information on the basis that it is true and accurate in

material respects and not misleading by reason of omission or otherwise. Accordingly, neither

Northington Partners nor its Directors, employees or agents, accept any responsibility or liability for

any such information being inaccurate, incomplete, unreliable or not soundly based or for any errors

in the analysis, statements and opinions provided in this report resulting directly or indirectly from any

such circumstances or from any assumptions upon which this report is based proving unjustified.

We reserve the right, but will be under no obligation, to review or amend our report if any additional

information which was in existence on the date of this report was not brought to our attention, or

subsequently comes to light.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, Northington Partners, its affiliates, directors, officers and

employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any

of the information contained in this report.

Review of FY24 Performance |
FY24 Highlights

Continuation of Strong

Earnings

Fonterra reported FY24 earnings from continuing operations of 70 cents per share. This was at the top of its guidance (60 – 70 cents) and only

marginally down on FY23’s record earnings outcome of 75 cents.

Although price relativities between reference and non-reference products eased compared to FY23 and led to materially lower performance in

Ingredients, they did not narrow as much as expected and that outcome contributed to performance being at the top of the guidance range. Group

EBIT from continuing operations of $1,560m was down ~11% on last year’s record ($1,755m).

Significantly Improved

Consumer and

Foodservice Performance

Offsetting Weakening

Ingredients

Ingredients EBIT was down $657m (-42%) to $898m in FY24. The earnings decline was primarily due to lower margins resulting from narrower price

relativities. A higher proportion of milk volumes was also allocated to higher value channels.

Conversely, Consumer and Foodservice collectively contributed to a $462m increase in EBIT vs FY23. Consumer earnings increased to $199m, an

improvement of $111m on last year when adjusting for the difference in net impairments ($244m in FY23 and $31m in FY24). Foodservice earnings

were up $138m to $463m. Both channels were supported by increased volumes and higher margins (primarily due to the lower cost of milk).

Lift in 2024/25

Farmgate Milk Price and

Advance Rates

Fonterra declared a final 2023/2024 Farmgate Milk Price (FGMP) of $7.83 per KgMS and a total dividend for the year of 55 cents per share,

generating an effective total cash return of $8.38 per share backed kgMS for the season.

Further strengthening in GDT prices and constrained global milk supply has resulted in Fonterra lifting its 2024/25 forecast FGMP midpoint by 50

cents to $9.00 per kgMS (~15% up on the final 2023/2024 Milk Price) with a range of $8.25 - $9.75 per kgMS. The higher milk price has also been

accompanied by an uplift in Advance Payment Rates, ensuring that suppliers will be paid more for their milk earlier in the season. Fonterra’s

stronger balance sheet has enabled the Co-operative to enhance the Advance Rate over the past two seasons.

Continued Balance Sheet

Strengthening Supports

Capital Returns

Despite no significant asset sales in FY24, the strong underlying performance of the business and lower working capital requirements have resulted

in further strengthening of the balance sheet, with net debt reducing by $0.6bn year on year to $2.6bn. This has resulted in the gearing ratio

reducing to 24.0% (vs 28.8% in FY23 and a FY18-FY23 average of >40%, with a target of 30% - 40%).

The reduction in net debt provides Fonterra with significant balance sheet flexibility and supports the increased total annual dividend to a record 55

cents per share for FY24 (40 cent total ordinary and 15 cent special dividend vs 50 cent total ordinary in FY23). This represents a total dividend

payout of ~82% of earnings (vs current policy of 40% - 60%).

Strategic Review

Complete

Some further detail on Fonterra’s potential exit from Consumer and related businesses has been released. Fonterra has confirmed a strategic focus

on Ingredients and Foodservice while providing some key financial targets for the retained business, including higher returns (10% – 12% return on

capital vs 9% – 10% currently) and a higher dividend payout policy (60% – 80% of normalised earnings vs 40% – 60% currently).

The high-level rationale for the potential exit of the Consumer and related businesses appears reasonable when viewed from a financial performance

perspective, noting that the “In-scope” business comprises approximately 30% of the Co-operative’s capital employed but only delivered

approximately 17% of FY24 earnings.

FY25 Earnings Outlook &

Change in Tax Status

The Fonterra Board has provided earnings guidance of 40 – 60 cents per share for the 2025 financial year. However, the recent exhaustion of NZ tax

losses means that this is not comparable to historic earnings where dividends on supply backed shares were treated as a tax expense and utilisation

of tax losses contributed to lower overall tax expenses (higher post tax earnings) at the Group level. Normalising for the change in Fonterra’s tax

status and higher expected digital transformation costs, the current FY25 outlook implies underlying performance broadly consist ent with FY24.

1

2

4

3

5

6

3

Review of FY24 Performance |
Table of Contents

4

SectionPage

Section 1FY24 Results Review5

Financial Performance6

Return on Capital9

Financial Position12

Outlook15

Section 2Strategic Update18

Divestment19

Updated Strategic Targets24

Section 3Flexible Shareholding26

NZ Milk and Shareholder Flexibility27

Restricted Market Discount29

Appendix –SupportingInformation30

Section 1:
FY24 Results Review

FONTERRA

CO-OPERATIVE

COUNCIL

Review of FY24 Performance |
Fonterra reported FY24 earnings (EBIT) from continuing operations of $1,560m, a 11% reduction on FY23’s record results.

Total Group Financial Performance

NZ$ Million (Continuing Operations)FY24FY23% Change

Sales Volume (‘000 MT)

3,4703,497(1%)

Total Revenue

22,82224,580(7%)

Cost of Goods Sold

(19,000)(20,399)(7%)

Gross Profit

3,8224,181(9%)

Gross Margin

16.7%17.0%n/a

Impairments

(34)(248)n/a

Operating Expenses

(2,335) (2,248) 4%

Other Items

1077053%

Reported EBIT

1,5601,755(11%)

Reported EBIT Margin

6.8%7.1%n/a

Net Finance Costs & Tax

(392) (514) (24%)

Net Profit After Tax (Continuing Ops)

1,168 1,241 (6%)

Net Profit After Tax (Discontinued Ops)

(40) 336 n/a

Total Group Net Profit After Tax

1,128 1,577 (28%)

Earnings Per Share (Continuing Ops)

$0.70$0.75(7%)

Dividend per Share

$0.55$0.5010%

Although down on FY23, Fonterra delivered a solid earnings result for FY24, with reported earnings

before interest and tax (EBIT) and reported net profit after tax (NPAT) above long-term historical

averages. Reported EBIT from continuing operations reduced by 11% to $1,560m.

Similar to FY23, Fonterra’s results for FY24 are complicated by earnings relating to discontinued

businesses, being DPA Brazil in FY24 and Hangu China farm and Soprole in FY23. We have therefore

focused on the results for the continuing operations, as summarised in the adjacent table and

commentary below.

–Flat sales volumes and lower product pricing contributed to a 7% reduction in revenue

($22,822m in FY24 vs $24,580m in FY23).

–Reduced price relativities compared to FY23’s record levels contributed to reduced gross profits,

albeit with margins remaining high (16.7% FY24 vs 17.0% FY23). A lower contribution from

Ingredients was offset by higher margins and sales volumes in the Foodservice and Consumer

channels.

–Excluding impairment expenses, operating expenses from continuing operations increased by

$87m (4%), primarily reflecting increased IT & Digital transformation costs, technical and

professional costs as well as ongoing inflationary pressures.

–Reported EBIT from continuing operations was down $195m (11%). When excluding impairments

($56m

1

in FY24 and $248m in FY23), EBIT was down 19% on FY23.

–The resulting reported NPAT for FY24 was $1,128m on a continuing and discontinued operation

basis (67 cents per share), compared to an equivalent $1,577m in FY23 (95 cents per share)

which benefited from gains on the sale of Soprole. FY24 NPAT benefited from a significant decline

in finance costs due to recent divestments and the resulting reduction in debt costs.

–Earnings from continuing operations of 70 cents per share was at the top end of Fonterra’s

guidance (60 to 70 cents per share) and only marginally down on FY23’s record earnings

outcome of 75 cents.

–The Group declared a final ordinary dividend of 25 cents per share for FY24 and a special

dividend of 15 cents per share, bringing the total FY24 dividend to 55 cents per share. This

represents a 5 cents per share increase compared to FY23. Excluding the special dividend, the

dividend corresponds to a 60% payout ratio, at the top of Fonterra’s dividend policy payout range

of 40% to 60%. The high dividend payout and 15 cent special dividend is reflective of Fonterra’s

current strong balance sheet driven by recent cash earnings strength.

Reported EBIT and Reported EBIT Margin (Continuing Operations)

6

816

946

1,755

1,560

4.2%

4.3%

7.1%

6.8%

FY21FY22FY23FY24

Reported EBITReported EBIT Margin

1

FY24 Cost of Goods Sold includes impairments of $22m.

Review of FY24 Performance |
806

579

370

115

942

503

Core OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater China

FY23FY24

1,555

325

(125)

898

463

199

IngredientsFoodserviceConsumer

FY23FY24

Financial Performance by Channel & Segment

There was a material shift in the composition of operating earnings (EBIT) between channels in

FY24 vs FY23:

EBIT from the Ingredients channel was down by $657m in FY24, reflecting the following key

factors:

–Lower sales volumes and reduced margins, largely due to a reduction in price relativities

between Non-Reference products and Reference Products;

–Lower regional margins in Australia (due to a higher milk price); and

–An increase in the cost of milk (as per the Milk Price calculation) due to changes in lactose

prices.

Conversely, EBIT for Foodservice and Consumer was up $138m and $111m respectively when

adjusting for impairments in the Consumer channel in FY23 and FY24. Both segments benefited

from:

–Favourable margins predominantly driven by a comparatively lower cost of milk as well as

higher in-market pricing; and

–Increased sales volumes, mainly driven by UHT cream in the China Foodservice business as

well as Consumer products in FBNZ, Sri Lanka and the Middle East.

Similar market dynamics led to a shift in earnings contributions across the three Segments:

–Core Operations reported a $691m reduction in EBIT, largely reflecting lower margins in New

Zealand milk processing (Ingredients).

–Global Markets earnings were up $170m (adjusting for impairments) to $947m, largely

driven by improvements in the Consumer channel.

–Greater China delivered a $113m increase in EBIT (adjusting for impairments) to $529m,

with a particularly strong pick-up in Foodservice across the region.

While the price differential between Non-Reference and Reference products contributed to lower performance in Ingredients, the lower cost

of milk and firm end-product pricing led to significant margin & earnings improvement in the Consumer and Foodservice channels.

Reported EBIT by Channel (NZ$ million)

7

Reported EBIT by Segment (NZ$ million)

$119m when

adjusted for $244m

impairment.

$777m when adjusted for

$198m impairment.

$416m when adjusted for

$46m impairment.

Note: Segment and Channel Information is available for continuing operations onlyNote: FY24 includes impairments of $25m, $5m and $26m in Core Operations, Global Markets and Greater China respectively

$230m when

adjusted for $31m

impairment.

Review of FY24 Performance |
Although average price relativities eased in FY24 compared to the record levels observed in FY23, they remain high compared to historical

levels. Price relativities were estimated to have contributed ~12cps to FY24 earnings vs ~40cps in FY23 and Fonterra’s estimated long-run

average of 0-5cps.

Price Relativities

Historical Price Relativities (Non-Reference / Reference Product Prices)

8

The price relativities between Reference and Non-Reference Products have a significant

influence on Fonterra’s profitability, particularly within the Ingredients channel. The bottom left

chart summarises the price relativities by financial year using monthly GDT data for the prices of

cheddar and WMP as proxies for Non-Reference and Reference products. This illustrates that

although the average price relativity eased in FY24 to 1.3x when compared to FY23 (1.4x), it was

still higher than long-term averages. The start of FY25 also indicates a slight reduction in price

relativities compared to both FY24 and FY23.

While it is difficult to reliably identify specific factors which drive the changes through time, the

price relativity must ultimately be underpinned by changing supply and demand dynamics

between the product categories. Without any evidence for a structural change in the market, we

would expect that over the long-run, the price relativities will revert to average levels.

As is the case with general commodity prices, Fonterra is effectively a ‘price-taker’ in relation to

price relativities. Year-to -year volatility in earnings will therefore continue to be exposed to the

underlying variability in this key driver of performance.

Source: Global Dairy Trade, adjusted forward 3 months to reflect shipment delay.

WMP and Cheddar used as proxies for Reference & Non-Reference Products.

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

R² = 0.7846

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

1.11.151.21.251.31.351.41.45

Ingredients Segment Gross Margin

Non-reference / Reference Product Price Relativities

Relationship Between Price Relativities and the Ingredients Segment Gross Margin

Fonterra management estimates that price relativities in FY24 contributed 12 cents per share to

earnings, significantly down on FY23’s 40 cents. This change explains the majority of the drop in

the Ingredients channel contribution in FY24 - the 28 cent drop represents >$600m at the gross

profit level vs the $657m decline in Ingredients EBIT observed in FY24.

Based on the monthly GDT prices for Non-Reference and Reference Products averaged over each

financial year, the chart below shows a strong relationship between price relativities and the gross

margins generated by the Ingredients channel. Nine years of monthly pricing data suggests that

the price relativities have averaged 1.28x, consistent with the Ingredients segment delivering gross

margins of ~11.0%. Our analysis further suggests that FY24 excess or “abnormal” price relativities

were ~$300m (the gross margin difference of an average year at 11.0% and FY24 actual

Ingredients gross margins of 13.1%), equivalent to approximately 14 cents per share (post tax).

While this is similar to management’s estimate of 12 cents, we have insufficient information to

reconcile the difference.

If the price relativities do revert to long run averages, we expect that the gross margin achieved by

the Ingredients channel will reduce (subject to the impacts of periodic volatility, Fonterra’s cost

reduction initiatives and any further improvement in the relative volume split between Reference

and Non-Reference Products). We also note that price relativities for FY25 year to date suggest

that margins for the Ingredients channel may continue to reduce compared to recent years.

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul

Cheddar Price Relative to WMP Price as

Proxy for Price Relativities

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25

Review of FY24 Performance |
811

805

837

1,586

1,348

12,313

12,281

12,356

12,774

11,904

6.6%

6.6%

6.8%

12.4%

11.3%

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Group Normalised EBIT Average Capital Employed Return on Capital

Our review of Fonterra’s financial performance since inception (published in November 2018)

noted that the average post-tax return on capital employed (“

ROCE”) was approximately 6.0%,

below the assessed benchmark range of 6.9% - 7.7%. The chart below summarises ROCE since

FY20 and shows the dramatic improvement recorded in FY23 and FY24.

These results are based on Fonterra’s approach to calculating ROCE; it reflects normalised EBIT

and is based on the book value of equity. Normalised EBIT excludes the $66 million loss related

to the disposal of DPA Brazil. FY24 impairments totaling $34 million, mainly recognised in the

Group’s Consumer channel, are however included in the calculation of normalised EBIT.

Fonterra’s FY24 ROCE was 11.3% vs 12.4% in FY23.

The reduction in FY24 ROCE reflects reduced earnings offset by the material reduction in average

capital employed in FY24 ($870m or 7%) when compared to FY23. The lower capital employed is

primarily due to the $804m capital return to shareholders in August 2023 following the Soprole

sale. As discussed previously, FY24’s decreased earnings is largely driven by lower profitability in

the Ingredients channel, attributed mainly to the narrowing price relativity between Reference

and Non-Reference Product prices when compared to FY23.

Return on Capital

Historical Return on Capital (Based on Fonterra Estimates)

ROCE = (Group Normalised EBIT + finance income on long term advances) x (1 – notional tax rate)

Explanation

Return on Capital (ROC) or Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is a measure of how well

capital has been invested. As shown below, this is assessed by looking at the post-tax

return from the assets as a proportion of their book value.

Average Capital Employed (Seasonally-adjusted)

Fonterra provided a breakdown of return on capital by channel for the first time in FY23, along

with the comparable data for FY22. In line with the earnings improvements previously discussed,

the ROCE for both the Foodservice and Consumer channels were materially higher in FY24, with

both channels supported by increased volumes and higher margins (primarily due to the lower

cost of milk).

ROCE calculations reflect the impact of the impairments taken – that is, the channel earnings

used in the calculation have not been normalised for the impairments.

A continuation of strong earnings in FY24 resulted in a return on capital employed of 11.3%, down on 12.4% in FY23, but above the

previous four-year average of 8.1% and significantly above the previous Long-Term Aspirations target of 7% - 8%.

Historical Return on Capital by Channel (Based on Fonterra Estimates)

9

1.

Plus finance income on long term advances less notional tax charge

9.0%

5.5%

(0.4%)

16.3%

15.7%

(3.9%)

10.2%

19.6%

6.8%

IngredientsFoodserviceConsumer

FY22FY23FY24

1

Review of FY24 Performance |
Fonterra declared a final Farmgate Milk Price of $7.83 per kgMS for the 2023/2024 season, a

decrease from $8.22 in the prior year. The reduction was largely attributed to weaker

international demand for Reference Products which reduced pricing. As summarised in the chart

below, reduced pricing had a negative impact of $0.65 per kgMS, partly offset by favourable

foreign exchange movement resulting from on-going weakness in the New Zealand dollar ($0.39

per kgMS). A $147m inflationary increase in input costs also contributed to a $0.14 per kgMS

decline.

At the time of the results announcement, Fonterra communicated strengthening GDT prices and

constrained milk supply in key producing regions. The most recent GDT auctions have confirmed

an improvement in market demand and have led to a $0.50 upgrade to the forecast 2024/2025

FGMP, now at $8.25 - $9.75 per kgMS with a mid-point of $9.00 per kgMS

1

. This forecast of

$8.25 - $9.75 per kgMS positions it above Dairy NZ’s current estimated national breakeven milk

price of $8.15 per kgMS

2

.

Fonterra declared a final 2023/2024 Farmgate Milk Price of $7.83 per kgMS and has increased its 2024/2025 forecast range to $8.25 -

$9.75 per kgMS with a mid-point of $9.00 per kgMS

1

.

Final Milk Price

Normalised Earnings Per Share and Payout Ratio ($ per kgMS)

2023/2024 Farmgate Milk Price Guidance Range

The graph below shows that the milk price guidance for FY24 issued to farmers in May 2023 was

broadly in line with the final declared FGMP of $7.83. Downgrades in August were offset with

upgrades during the remainder of the season. This is opposite to pattern observed in FY23, where

an initial uplift was followed by downgrades over the course of the season.

The higher milk price has also been accompanied by an uplift in Advance Payment Rates,

ensuring that suppliers will be paid more for their milk earlier in the season. Fonterra’s stronger

balance sheet has enabled the Co-operative to enhance the Advance Rate over the past two

seasons. The Advance Rate of $7.00 for September 2024 represents 78% of the forecast

2024/2025 FGMP mid-point of $9.00 compered to ~70% for the corresponding period in 2023.

10

1

As at 25 September 2024

2

As at 11 October 2024

7.83

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

Guidance RangeGuidance - MidpointActual FGMP

$8.22 $0.01

($0.65)$0.39

($0.14)$7.83

FY23 FGMPVolumePricingForeign ExchangeCash CostsFY24 FGMP

Net $0.25 reduction in Revenue

Final FGMP determined in

September 2024.

Review of FY24 Performance |
Fonterra announced a final dividend of 25 cents per share for FY24 plus a special dividend of 15

cents per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to 55 cents per share. This is a marginal

increase on the total dividend paid in FY23 of 50 cents per share (excluding the 50 cent capital

return).

The adjusted NPAT used as the basis for the dividend calculation was $0.67 per share, meaning

the 40 cents per share ordinary dividend corresponds to a payout ratio at the top end of the 40%

- 60% dividend policy range. Fonterra noted that the special dividend is supported by the higher

earnings over the last two years, combined with a strengthened balance sheet and leverage

metrics within target levels. Including the special dividend, the total dividend of 55 cents per

share corresponds to an 82% FY24 payout ratio.

Fonterra has subsequently updated its dividend policy to a payout target of 60% - 80% of

reported net profit after tax that is attributable to Co-operative equity holders, excluding abnormal

items (see page 24).

Total payout to fully shared up farmers for FY24 has been bolstered by a dividend of 55 cents per share, which includes a special dividend

of 15 cents per share.

The chart below summarises the total payout per share since FY21 (see page 38 for further

details). With a final 2023/2024 Farmgate milk price of $7.83 and the 55 cent total dividend,

total payout reached $8.38 per share backed kgMS in FY24. The total cash return of $8.38 in

FY24 was below the highest total payout achieved over the last ten years ($9.50 in FY22)

1

but

above the historic ten-year (FY14-23) average total payout of $7.03.

Despite current earnings guidance for FY25 (40 – 60 cents per share) being down on FY24 (67

cents) largely due to the change in tax status and ongoing IT and transformation costs, FY25

ordinary dividends may only reduce modestly. This reflects the updated dividend policy along with

Fonterra’s strong capital position. If the higher milk price forecast for the current season is

achieved, the total payout for FY25 is likely to increase to levels higher than those achieved over

the last two years.

Normalised Earnings Per Share and Payout Ratio

Total Payout

1

Excludes 50c

capital return

Total Payout and Payout Ratio

11

1. Per share backed kgMS

$7.54

$9.30

$8.22

$7.83

$0.20

$0.20

$0.50

$0.55

$7.74

$9.50

$8.72

$8.38

FY21FY22FY23FY24

Farmgate Milk PriceDividend per Share

Includes 15c

special dividend

$0.14

$0.15

$0.30

$0.16

$0.20

$0.20

$0.50

$0.40

$0.15

$0.34$0.35

$0.80

$0.71

57%

59%

63%

82%

FY21FY22FY23FY24

Normalised Retentions Per ShareDividend Per ShareSpecial Dividend Per SharePayout Ratio

Review of FY24 Performance |
Fonterra’s recent focus on capital management, along with its improved earnings performance and recent divestments (including DPA

Brazil in FY24) have contributed to a strong balance sheet.

Financial Position

NZ$ MillionFY24FY23% Change

Assets

Cash and Cash Equivalents5401,822(70%)

Receivables2,1232,473(14%)

Inventories4,4584,3463%

Other Current Assets 374854(56%)

PP&E6,4006,3431%

Intangible Assets1,7851,824(2%)

Other Non-Current Assets 9999396%

Total Assets16,67918,601(10%)

Liabilities

Payables2,5732,3738%

Owing to Suppliers1,6231,997(19%)

Current Borrowings1,03278531%

Capital Return Payable-8040%

Other Current Liabilities6191,302(52%)

Non-Current Borrowings2,3563,156(25%)

Other Non-Current Liabilities30121639%

Total Liabilities8,50410,633(20%)

Net Assets8,1757,9683%

Non-Controlling Interests766223%

Equity Attributable to Co-op8,0997,9062%

Adjusted Net Debt (NZ$ million) and Gearing Ratio (%)

12

$5,238m

$4,325m

$5,339m

$3,207m

$2,605m

44.2%

38.5%

42.4%

28.8%

24.0%

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Adjusted Net DebtGearing Ratio

Net Assets increased to $8,175 million at the end of FY24, representing an increase of $207 million

(+3%) from the previous year.

The Group’s cash and cash equivalents decreased by $1,282 million (-70%) to $540 million, with

FY23’s balance of $1,822 million including the sale proceeds of Soprole which was completed in

FY23. A capital return of $804 million in relation to the divestments were paid in August 2023,

significantly contributing to the decrease of cash and cash equivalents in FY24.

Inventory values increased $112 million (3%) during FY24, now at $4,458 million. Fonterra

estimates that based on a reduction of ~25,000 MT (-4%), the volume of inventory held at FY24 year

end equates to a ~$200 million reduction. The higher closing milk price per MT in FY24 offsets the

lower volume held, resulting in an increase in the balance sheet value.

Broader reductions in working capital days (89 in FY24 vs 91 in FY23) have also contributed to

improved cash conversion and lower debt. Adjusted net debt has decreased by $602 million to

$2,605 million with gearing levels correspondingly lower at 24.0% (vs 28.8% FY23). The gearing ratio

is also significantly below Fonterra’s policy range of 30% - 40% and historic average levels.

Further analysis of the ending net debt position is set out on the following page.

Review of FY24 Performance |
$3,207m

($2,201m)

($112m)

($11m)

$741m

$884m

$97m

$2,605m

FY23

Net Debt

Cash from

Operations

Change in

Net Working

Capital

Divestments

& Asset Sales

Capital

Expenditure

& Other

DividendsOther Non-cash

and Financing

Cash Flow

FY24

Net Debt

4.6x

4.3x

3.3x

2.7x

3.2x

1.3x

1.2x

FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Fonterra’s net debt has decreased by a further $602m over FY24 due to strong earnings and decreased working capital. Gearing and

leverage ratios are now well below target levels.

Fonterra’s significantly reduced debt levels and improved gearing (24.0%) and debt / EBITDA

ratios (1.2x) provide significant financial flexibility for future investment or capital returns.

–Fonterra’s FY24 debt to EBITDA ratio decreased to 1.2x (1.3x at FY23), significantly below its

target of <2.5x and historic levels.

–Along with the reduced gearing ratio (24.0%), we consider that the strong balance sheet

provides scope for further growth investment or capital returns to shareholders even prior to

the potential divestment of the Consumer and associated businesses (see Section 2).

However, we expect that any decision on future capital returns will be deferred until the

divestment process has been concluded.

–The improved debt position also supports the increased dividend payout target of 60% - 80%

(vs 40% - 60%) and provides the scope to improve Advance Rates while still maintaining

Fonterra’s “A” band credit rating (a key influence on Fonterra’s ability to access debt at

attractive rates).

Debt / EBITDA

1

Net Debt decreased to $2,605 million at the end of FY24, representing a decrease of $602

million (-19%) from the previous year. Key contributors to the changes in net debt over the FY24

period are summarised as follows:

–Operating cash flows of $2,201 million are down $543 million on $2,744 million achieved in

FY23 (albeit off a record earnings year).

–Investment in working capital has reduced by $112 million.

–Capital expenditure during FY24 increased only slightly ($32 million) compared to FY23

($709 million).

–Dividends paid during FY24 includes the FY23 final dividend of $643 million and the FY24

interim dividend of $241 million, together totaling $884 million.

–We note that the $804m capital return that was paid in FY24 was included in the closing

FY23 adjusted net debt as a payable.

13

Net Debt Bridge (NZ$ million)

1. Calculated as Adjusted Net Debt / Normalised EBITDA

Debt Position

Review of FY24 Performance |
Capital investment for the last four years has been broken down into three broad categories:

1.Essential capital expenditure;

2.Growth capital expenditure; and

3.Other capital investment.

Most of the expenditure in FY24 was allocated to essential capital expenditure ($558 million) which

generally reflects the maintenance and improvement of existing assets. Fonterra has further broken

down this category into four sub-components categories, as shown in the chart below. Also included

within the essential capital expenditure for FY24:

–$40 million spend on decarbonisation to support Fonterra’s sustainability goals; and

–$54 million spend on wastewater assets to improve its environmental footprint.

A total of $56 million was invested to support growth for the Foodservice and Ingredients business,

including capacity expansion for high value products such as lactoferrin, probiotics and

hyrdrolysates. Three new growth investments have also been announced; these are the $75 million

high-value protein hub at Studholme, $150 million new UHT cream plant at Edendale and $150

million new cool store at Whareroa. These investments along with other growth initiatives are

expected to contribute to a significant increase in growth capital expenditure over the next few years

(see page 25).

Total capital invested during FY24 was $720 million, representing a decrease of $27 million compared to the prior year.

The $106 million of other capital investment includes investments into the Ki Tua Equity Investment

Fund, right-of -use assets and other equity investments.

As already mentioned, Fonterra completed the divestment of DPA Brazil in November 2023. This

aligns with the Group’s strategy to increase its focus on Core Operations (i.e. New Zealand milk

collection and processing). The transaction resulted in a net loss on sale for FY24 of $66 million on

both a pre-tax post-tax basis.

In May 2024, Fonterra announced a material change in its strategic direction which included the

potential divestment of some or all of its global Consumer business together with Fonterra Oceania

and Fonterra Sri Lanka. Our analysis of this potential divestment is included in Section 2 of our

report.

Capital Expenditure & Divestments

FY24FY23

Sale PriceGain/(Loss)Sale PriceGain/(Loss)

DPA Brazil

240(66)

Soprole

1,066349

China Farms (Hangu)

18(12)

Total240(66)1,084337

Historical Capital Invested by Type (NZ$ million)Summary of Recent Divestments (NZ$ million)

Note: Gain / (Loss) on Sale is on a pre-tax basis

14

249

285

281

333

291

14

36

54

51

54

104

119

121

152

173

15

26

78

85

40

37

79

53

47

56

106

63

30

79

106

525

608

617

747

720

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Essential Capital for NZ OperationsWastewater

Essential Capital for Other OperationsDecarbonisation

Growth Capital ExpenditureOther Capital Invested

382

466

534

621

558

Review of FY24 Performance |
$0.48

$0.31

$0.36

$0.75

$0.70

$0.40

$0.60

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24Est. pro forma

adjustments

FY25

Fonterra’s FY25 outlook reflects expectation of improved margins in the Consumer channel, with

Ingredients and Foodservice expected to be stable.

While the 40 – 60 cent guidance range reflects a significant reduction on the 70 cents achieved in

FY24, the FY25 forecast reflects a significant increase in non-operating related costs. These include:

–Fonterra has exhausted its New Zealand tax losses and is therefore subject to a change in tax

status. This is expected to result in a significant increase in the future level of New Zealand tax

paid, with Fonterra’s effective tax rate expected to increase to ~25% (vs ~17% in FY24). We

discuss the implications of this for shareholders on the following page; and

–Ongoing investment in IT & digital transformation costs are expected to be materially higher in

FY25 relative to the $81 million in FY24. We understand that these costs may be as high as $250

million in FY25 (~10 cents per share higher than FY24).

Despite the lower earnings guidance, current expectations for underlying FY25 performance (i.e. EBIT

before IT & digital transformation costs) appear to be in line with the FY24 outcome. Broker

consensus estimates are also consistent with this view, with a current average FY25 EBIT forecast of

$1,369 million

1

(vs $1,560 million from continuing operations in FY24 before allowing for ~$170

million of additional IT & digital transformation costs).

Fonterra’s opening EPS guidance for FY25 of 40c – 60c per share implies an underlying performance broadly consistent with FY24 when

adjusting for the change in tax status and increased IT transformation costs.

FY25 Outlook

As with previous years, price relativities will continue to have a significant influence on Fonterra’s

future performance. Consistent with management commentary, price relativities are expected to

make a similar contribution to earnings in FY25 as they did in FY24 (12 cents per share).

Note: GDT prices are adjusted forward 3 months to reflect delay between GDT

contracts struck and the shipment date (at which the invoice and revenue is recognised)

FY25 Year-to-Date Price Relativities

15

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

USD / MT

Cheddar (Non-Reference Product)Whole Mik Powder (Reference Product)

FY25 H1FY24 H2

Earnings Per Share (Continuing Operations)

Estimated impact of change

in tax status and increased

IT Transformation costs

(>$0.15 cents)

1

Capital IQ as at 25 October 2024

Review of FY24 Performance |
Fonterra’s exhaustion of New Zealand tax losses means it is changing how dividends are paid. While the change in tax status is unavoidable,

there may be negative consequences for certain shareholders with available tax losses at the individual level.

FY25 Change in Tax Status

16

Prior to FY25FY25 onwards

Gross dividend per share (cents)$1.00$1.00

Imputation Credit-($0.28)

Cash Dividend$1.00$0.72

Tax Payable (28%)($0.28)($0.28)

Imputation Credit Utilised-$0.28

Net cash for shareholder$0.72$0.72

Prior to FY25FY25 onwards

Gross dividend per share (cents)$1.00$1.00

Imputation Credit-($0.28)

Cash Dividend$1.00$0.72

Tax Payable (28%)--

Imputation Credit Utilised--

Net cash for shareholder$1.00$0.72

Fonterra has advised that it has now exhausted its New Zealand tax losses, previously used to

offset its tax liability. This means that from FY25, Fonterra expects to pay tax in New Zealand,

generating imputation credits which can be applied to dividend distributions. To enable all

shareholders to receive imputation credits, Fonterra is changing how it treats supply backed shares

for tax purposes:

–Prior to FY25, dividends on supply backed shares were treated as a business expense paid by

Fonterra to farmer suppliers. This tax deduction reduced the amount of tax payable by Fonterra.

–From FY25 onwards, dividends on supply backed shares will not be deducted for tax purposes

by Fonterra. This change will increase the amount of tax payable by Fonterra but means that

imputation credits will be able to be attached to dividends on all Fonterra shares and available

to offset any tax payable by individual shareholders.

All else equal, this has the following impact on Fonterra’s earnings:

–There is no impact on earnings prior to tax and therefore no impact on operating performance

(as measured at the EBIT level);

–A higher tax expense results in reduced post-tax earnings, with a flow-on effect for reported

earnings per share (as discussed on page 15);

–However, imputation credits can be attached to dividends on all shares and will be available to

offset the tax payable at the shareholder level.

At an individual shareholder level, the implications of the tax change using a simplifying assumption

of gross dividends of $1.00 per share are:

No impact on a tax paying shareholder with an effective tax rate at or above 28%. For example,

relative outcomes for a shareholder with a 28% tax rate are as follows:

–Prior to FY25, the shareholder received a higher cash dividend ($1.00), but that payment is

subject to tax at 28%. The post-tax cash benefit is $0.72.

–From FY25 onwards, Fonterra pays tax on the $1.00 at 28% and pays the net amount of $0.72

to the shareholder along with the associated imputation credits. The shareholder can apply the

imputation credits to offset their tax payable. The post-tax cash benefit is $0.72.

Non-tax paying / loss making / low effective tax rate paying shareholder worse off in the dividend tax

period.

–For shareholders with tax losses or an effective tax rate less than 28%, the ability to utilise

imputation credits may be limited and they will not be able to claim a refund on excess

imputation credits (although they can be accumulated for future benefit).

–For these shareholders, prior to FY25 the shareholder receives a higher cash dividend ($1.00)

but this would reduce from FY25 onward ($0.72).

–With insufficient taxable income available to offset through the utilisation of imputation credits,

this means the net cash received by the shareholder is lower when compared to prior FY25.

We note that these examples are only intended to be illustrative, is not tax advice and shareholders

should seek their own advice in relation to the changes to Fonterra’s tax status.

Tax Paying Shareholder (28% effective tax rate)Shareholder with Tax Losses

Review of FY24 Performance |
Fonterra reports on two efficiency targets focusing on operating costs and manufacturing costs per kgMS. These efficiency metrics were

introduced as part of Fonterra’s drive to enhance efficiencies and reduce its cost base.

Operational Efficiency Metrics

Cash Operating Expenses per kgMS

1.Cash operating expenses per kgMS collected

Cash operating expenses represent the global overheads of the Group and include head office,

selling, marketing, storage and distribution costs. In order to objectively assess cost efficiencies

relative to varying milk volumes, the cash operating costs are assessed per kgMS of New

Zealand and Australia milk solids collected.

The total costs in FY24 were $2.1 billion (based on continuing operations, less depreciation,

amortisation and impairments), implying a cost of $1.36 per kgMS vs $1.35 per kgMS in FY23.

Performance in FY24 was impacted by the following:

–Operating savings that were achieved were largely offset by the impact of inflation and

product mix change with greater volumes shifted to higher cost products (Foodservice and

Consumer); and

–An increase of $59 million in IT & digital transformation costs to $81 million.

Fonterra’s revised targets (illustrated in the chart below) imply a ~23% reduction in nominal

operating expenses on a per kgMS basis by FY27, to $1.05 per kgMS. However, this reduction is

hard to reconcile on a like-for-like basis because it is significantly impacted by:

–Increased IT & digital transformation costs in FY25 are expected to contribute to most of the

increase (~$0.10 per kgMS), representing an increase of ~$160 million on FY24. However,

these costs are not expected to continue indefinitely; and

–The large decrease after FY25 is due to the assumed divestment of the Consumer business

together with Fonterra Oceania and Fonterra Sri Lanka.

2.Core Operations manufacturing cash costs per kgMS collected (a more appropriate measure of

manufacturing efficiencies that the previous “Gross profit from Core Operations per kgMS”

measure used)

This metric measures the manufacturing performance of Fonterra. It is aimed at measuring

targeted efficiencies in the core New Zealand processing and manufacturing cost base to

improve gross profit margins on each kgMS. These costs largely represent materials, labour,

energy & packaging and the other costs directly incurred in processing milk products to the

point of sale. The measure has intentionally excluded the cost of milk (i.e. the FGMP) which is

out of Fonterra’s control and is assessed per kgMS of New Zealand milk solids collected.

The core manufacturing costs in FY24 were $3.8 billion, implying a cost of $2.58 per kgMS vs

$2.63 per kgMS in FY23. The improved performance in FY24 benefited from the following:

–Procurement benefits for materials and inputs;

–Shift in the product mix to lower cost products; and

–Efficiency gains through performance improvement programs partially offsetting inflation

and labour cost increases.

The information provided by Fonterra (illustrated in the chart below) implies a ~2% appreciation

in nominal operating expenses on a per kgMS basis by FY27, to $2.64 per kgMS. This suggests

ongoing manufacturing efficiencies are expected over the medium term when backing out an

allowance for future inflation.

17

Core Operations Manufacturing Cash Costs per kgMS

1.32

1.29

1.28

1.35

1.36

1.09

1.10

1.17

1.30

1.47

1.12

1.05

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27

Inflation-AdjustedActualTarget

2.53

2.51

2.49

2.63

2.58

2.06

2.11

2.30

2.62

2.64

2.62

2.64

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27

Inflation-AdjustedActualTarget

Section 2:
Strategic Update

FONTERRA

CO-OPERATIVE

COUNCIL

Review of FY24 Performance |
Foodservice

Ingredients

Consumer

17 Manufacturing sites

In May 2024, Fonterra announced a material change in its strategic direction which included the potential divestment of some or all of its

global Consumer business together with Fonterra Oceania and Fonterra Sri Lanka. The Co-operative has subsequently provided further

information on its revised strategy and key performance targets which replace the previous “Long-Term Aspirations” established in 2021.

Introduction

19

Fonterra’s key rationale for the potential divestment includes:

−Ownership of these businesses is not required to fulfil Fonterra’s core function of collecting,

processing and selling milk.

−Prioritizing Ingredients and Foodservice channels and releasing capital from the In Scope

Businesses would generate more value for shareholders.

−A divestment of these assets would help create a simpler, higher performing Co-operative with a

focus on Fonterra’s core business and doing what it does best.

−A divestment could allow a new owner with the right expertise and resources to unlock the full

potential of these businesses on a global scale.

We note that it is likely to be some time before any decision to divest the In Scope Businesses is

formalized. The degree to which Fonterra fully or partially exits the businesses will depend on the

level of market interest and any decision to exit will likely involve shareholder consultation and

approval.

In Scope Businesses: businesses, brands and manufacturing sites

Australia

−Cobden

−Stanhope

−Darnum

−Spreyton

−Wynyard

−Tullamarine 1

−Tullamarine 2

−Campbellfield

−Bayswater

New Zealand

−Takanini

(Auckland)

−Bridge St (Eltham)

−Makomako Rd

(Palmerston North)

Malaysia

−Dairymas

−Susumas

Sri Lanka

−Biyagama

Indonesia

−Cikarang

Middle East

−Dammam

Oceania

−FBNZ and Fonterra

Australia Foodservice

Sri LankaOceania

−Fonterra Australia Ingredients

Oceania

−Fonterra Oceania

(previously known

as FBNZ and

Fonterra Australia)

South East Asia

−Indonesia

−Malaysia

−Philippines

−Singapore

−Thailand

−Vietnam

Greater China

−China

−Taiwan

−Hong Kong

Rest of the World

−Americas

2

−Middle East

−Africa

Sri Lanka

Oceania Brands

1

Global Brands

1

1

Key brands only. ‘Anchor Food Professionals’ is a Foodservice brand and excluded

2

Americas includes Mexico and other Caribbean and Central American countries

Fonterra has announced a step-change in strategic direction with the intention of increasing

focus on the Ingredients and Foodservice part of the business. This is expected to “grow further

value for the Co-op by focusing on being a B2B dairy nutrition provider and working closely with

customers through our high-performing Ingredients and Foodservice channels”. As part of the

revised strategy, the Co-operative is exploring the divestment of some or all of the global

Consumer business as well as Fonterra Oceania and Fonterra Sri Lanka (“

In Scope Businesses”).

The In Scope Businesses comprise well known consumer brands in New Zealand and Australia

including Anchor, Mainland, Kapiti, Perfect Italiano and Fresh’n Fruity as well as the Australian

manufacturing and ingredients business. A summary of the make up of the In Scope Businesses

is set out below.

This section provides a brief overview of the potential rationale and implications for divestment

as well as Fonterra’s updated strategic targets which replace the previous “Long-Term

Aspirations” from 2021.

Review of FY24 Performance |
•Australia provides 6.8% of Fonterra’s total milk

supply (107 million kgMS)

•This represents approximately 16% of Australia’s

total milk collections

•Combined businesses represent 14.3% of

Fonterra’s total sales volumes (231 million

kgMS)

•$3.4bn (30%) of Fonterra’s total capital

employed in combined businesses

•Significant majority of which is invested across

processing / manufacturing in Australia and NZ

•$5.4bn revenue

1

•$282m EBIT ($79m Australia & $203m NZ +

rest of world) compared to total Group EBIT of

$1,616m

•<7% return on capital (vs >13% for out of scope

businesses)

2

High Level Summary of In Scope Businesses

20

The In Scope Businesses are a material component of the Co-operative, accounting for almost 30% of Fonterra’s capital employed. Despite

improved performance in FY24, these assets only contributed approximately 17% of EBIT for the year.

In Scope Businesses: FY24 Key Metrics

The In Scope Businesses represent significantly more than just the Consumer channel, with a

material level of capital invested across the entire Australian dairy value chain (collections and

processing through to consumer brands and foodservice), the NZ Consumer and Foodservice

businesses, global consumer brands and Sri Lanka.

While limited information is currently available on the In Scope Businesses, the adjacent table and

the FY23 and FY24 earnings breakdown below highlight some key metrics. These illustrate the

considerable scale of the In Scope Businesses as well as their relative underperformance compared

to the rest of the business (based on return on capital). Even after the improvement in the total EBIT

contribution of $282m in FY24 (representing a ~80% improvement on FY23), the return on capital for

the In Scope Businesses was just ~7%.

We note that the poor recent returns of the In Scope Businesses are materially impacted by the

relative underperformance of Fonterra Australia. This is partly attributable to unsustainable prices for

milk in Australia over the last three seasons as a result of the prevailing competitive landscape. Milk

prices have become disconnected from global commodity prices, with the average Australian

farmgate milk price for the 2023/2024 season over $2/kgMS higher than NZ. Excluding Australia, we

suspect that the performance of the In Scope Businesses would be within Fonterra’s previous return

on capital targets (8% – 10%).

The inclusion of Fonterra Australia as part of the In Scope Businesses follows on from the strategic

review of that business unit which was announced in 2021, but which did not lead to any divestment

or significant restructuring. Wrapping the Australian business together with the broader global

Consumer business could be more appealing to prospective purchasers and is likely to attract more

interest than Fonterra Australia on a standalone basis.

1

Based on FY23, FY24 unavailable.

2

Northington Partners’ estimates based on Fonterra’s overall return on capital of 11.3% and the relative

levels of EBIT and capital employed by the In Scope Businesses. Assumes a consistent level of notional tax

across businesses.

(20)

45

132

(33)

57

258

IngredientsFoodserviceConsumer

FY23FY24

In Scope Reported EBIT by Channel (NZ$ million)

Exclusively

Australia

Australia, NZ

and Sri Lanka

Total FY24 EBIT:

$282m ($157m FY23)

Global

Review of FY24 Performance |
Potential Divestment Value and Capital Return

21

Comparable Companies EV / Forecast EBIT Multiples

Given the value of the In Scope Businesses, the implications of the divestment for Fonterra and its shareholders are significant. We estimate

that Fonterra could return up to $3bn of capital to shareholders assuming a full exit.

While the potential value of the In Scope Businesses is subject to market testing with potential

purchasers and is highly uncertain until offers are received, a number of valuation reference points

are available. Based on high-level analysis, we estimate that 100% of the In Scope Businesses may

be worth in excess of $3bn:

− Comparable consumer dairy businesses broadly trade at average enterprise value (“EV”) to

“forecast” EBIT multiples of >14.0x. While the comparable companies are large multinational

nutrition businesses with distinct investment characteristics compared to the In Scope

Businesses, we consider the evidence supports a valuation >$3bn (i.e. EV/FY24 EBIT multiple of

>10.6x); and

−The book value of capital employed in the In Scope Businesses is $3.4bn, implying a multiple of

approximately 12x FY24 EBIT.

It is possible that Fonterra may divest some or all of the In Scope Businesses or may decide to retain

a shareholding (e.g. through an IPO or JV of the In Scope Businesses). In addition, ongoing milk supply

arrangements or other transaction terms may impact on value. The EBIT of the In Scope Businesses

is based on transfer pricing within Fonterra – if the contract milk supply arrangements used different

pricing, this would impact on value. Therefore, the potential proceeds received by Fonterra may vary

considerably depending on the final transaction structure and ongoing milk supply terms.

6.5x

13.6x

14.1x

14.4x

16.0x

17.1x

17.7x

18.1x

14.7x

SavenciaChina

Mengniu

Dairy

SaputoDanoneInner

Mongolia Yili

NestléKerry GroupBega Cheese

Source: Capital IQ. See Appendix on page 47 for further details.

Average

Based on Fonterra’s target debt levels (gearing ratio of 30% – 40% and debt to EBITDA of 2.0x-3.0x),

the Resource Allocation Framework and the Company’s current debt position (see page 13), we think

that the majority of any sale proceeds could be returned to shareholders while maintaining its “A”

band credit rating.

A value of $3.0 - $3.4bn for 100% of the In Scope Businesses represents approximately $2.00 per

share. While the level of capital that will be returned to shareholders following a successful

divestment process will be influenced by a wide range of factors (including seasonal working capital

requirements and expected capital expenditure), it could be material relative to the current share

price.

Review of FY24 Performance |
$mFY24

(Continuing

Operations)

Pro Forma Impact

1

Pro Forma FY24

Excluding In Scope

Businesses

EBIT$1,560($282)$1,278

Net finance costs($157)-($157)

Tax($235)$47($188)

NPAT$1,168($235)$933

Earnings per share$0.70($0.14)$0.56

Return on capital employed 11.3%~13.0%

Debt / EBITDA1.2x1.5x

Gearing (debt /(debt + equity))24.0%35.0%

22

Key Impacts of Potential Divestment

The divestment of the In Scope Businesses would see Fonterra focus on its international Ingredients and Foodservice businesses with no

consumer facing brands – the emphasis would instead be on business customers and developing innovative dairy products.

Illustrative FY24 Pro Forma Financial Impact of In Scope Businesses Divestment

Source: Northington Partners’ estimates.

1

Assumes that 100% of In Scope Businesses are sold and that the entire proceeds are returned to

shareholders (i.e. no impact on debt levels) through a capital return and with no change in the total number

of shares on issue.

Consistent with Fonterra’s own rationale, we consider some of the potential benefits of divestment

may include:

−Concentrates Fonterra’s effort on its core business of collecting and processing milk while

stabilising supply and improving processing efficiency.

−Creates a simplified co-operative with a focus on maximising returns from its core operations.

−Allows for an exit of the Australian business which has required significant investment at return

levels lower than what have been achieved in Fonterra’s other channels and markets.

−Prioritises investment in the Ingredients and Foodservice channels while releasing capital from

the In Scope Businesses which would generate more value for shareholders.

−Provides the potential to achieve better return on capital in the remaining businesses.

For farmer shareholders, the sale of the In Scope Businesses would see the end of Fonterra’s

ownership of well-known brands but would be unlikely to result in a material reduction in milk sales

volumes. Other than Australia (where milk collections and processing operations are also potentially

being sold), it is likely Fonterra would continue to supply milk to the divested business through its

Ingredients channel.

Potential Financial Consequences

Based on FY24 results, the pro forma impact of a 100% exit is shown in the adjacent table. This

demonstrates:

−A 18% reduction in EBIT (to $1,278m) and 20% reduction in EPS (to $0.56 per share, assuming

no change in debt levels or the number of shares on issue);

−Improved return levels on capital employed from 11.3% to ~13.0%, reflecting both a lower level of

capital and higher returns from the out of scope businesses; and

−Even if the entire sale proceeds were returned to shareholders through a capital return, debt

levels would remain well within target levels (i.e. 35% gearing and debt / EBITDA of 1.5x).

In addition, we consider that the potential sale should result in reduced capital expenditure currently

required to support the In Scope Businesses.

We also note that the potential sale of the In Scope Businesses may result in an upward “re-rating” of

the Fonterra share price depending on the price achieved and level of capital returned to

shareholders. This is largely due to the potential scale of the capital return compared to the current

share price (~50% of the farmers-only market price) while a sale would have less impact on earnings,

only reducing by ~20% (based on FY24 pro-forma estimates).

Review of FY24 Performance |
23

Decision to Divest

More detailed information around the potential divestment of the In Scope Businesses will be provided as the strategic review process

progresses. However, shareholders are expected to be consulted on any final decision and any material divestment will likely require

shareholder approval.

More detailed information will be required to properly assess the merits of a potential exit from the In

Scope Businesses. In addition to the potential benefits noted earlier, there may be some potential

downsides from the divestment which need to be more fully addressed. These include:

−Less exposure to “value-add” consumer brands and their growth potential. However, historic

growth has been limited which may be due to the brands not living up to their potential under

Fonterra ownership. We also note that a value-add strategy can readily be pursued through the

Ingredients and Foodservice channels on a B2B basis;

−Less diversified earnings streams and a reduced milk pool due to the divestment of Australia; and

−The potential loss of milk sales volumes if the potential divestment does not include milk supply

arrangements with Fonterra or the buyer(s) subsequently moves away from Fonterra supply.

Fonterra has committed to engage in further consultation with shareholders in relation to any potential

divestment. We therefore expect that more information will be provided in due course including details

on transaction structure, transaction value, use of sale proceeds (including the level of capital return

to shareholders), implications for the brands, manufacturing and people and the ongoing relationship

between Fonterra and the purchaser (e.g. milk supply arrangements). We expect that more

information will become available over the course of the remainder of FY25.

We also note that both the sale of the In Scope Businesses and any associated capital return are

expected to require shareholder approval.

Review of FY24 Performance |
As a result of the potential divestment of the In Scope Businesses, Fonterra withdrew its previous Long-Term Aspirations targets in May

2024 and has subsequently introduced new strategic targets for performance, investment and dividend policy.

Updated Strategic Targets

As part of a significant reset of the business announced in 2019, Fonterra provided some key

business targets for the following 3-5 years. Those targets were subsequently updated and amended

in September 2021 with the publication of Long-Term Aspirations (“

LTAs” ) which extended out to

2030 and included additional long-term earnings targets (EBIT and earnings per share). These have

now been withdrawn (partly due to the potential sale of the In Scope Businesses) and have been

replaced with new strategic targets.

The table below summarises the changes to the targets, illustrating:

−Higher return on capital targets of 10% - 12% vs 9% - 10% previously. However, the divestment of

the lower returning In Scope Businesses should make this target more readily achievable (noting

that the out of scope businesses returned >13% in FY24 vs <7% for the In Scope Businesses).

−A higher dividend payout policy of 60% - 80% of normalised profits vs 40% - 60% previously. Along

with higher return targets, this should deliver higher dividends per share and we suggest that the

change demonstrates confidence in the earnings outlook and strengthened balance sheet.

−Balance sheet targets (debt to EBITDA and gearing ratio) broadly consistent with previous LTA

targets. This is not unexpected and will reflect the Co-operative’s target of maintaining its “A”

band credit rating (currently A- with S&P and A Fitch).

Although Fonterra has withdrawn its previous LTA earnings guidance, we estimate that the new

targets imply long-term earnings per share performance in a similar range of 50 – 60 cents per

share, despite the sale of the In Scope Businesses. This compares to Fonterra’s current FY25

outlook of 40 – 60 cents per share which includes the In Scope Businesses. We estimate an

implied FY25 earnings per share range of 30 - 50 cents excluding the In Scope Businesses

(assuming the In Scope Businesses FY25 performance is consistent with FY24 and that Fonterra

continues to supply milk solids to the In Scope Businesses at Ingredients’ margins / kgMS

comparable with FY24).

24

1

Based on old LTA FY30 Targets

2

From an FY18 base year

Previous LTA Framework

Revised

Long Term Target

FY24

Actual

FY18-23 AverageLTA Target

1

Shareholder

returns

Return on Capital11.3%8.6%9% – 10%10% – 12%

Dividend Policy (% of

earnings)

60% (excluding

special div.)

n.a40% – 60%60% – 80%

Balance Sheet

Debt to EBITDA1.2x3.2x<2.5x2.0x – 3.0x

Gearing Ratio24%42%<35%30% – 40%

Emissions

reduction by

2030

2

Absolute Scope 1 & 2

emissions

18.5%50%50%

On-farm emissions

intensity Scope 3

Not available30%30%

Review of FY24 Performance |
525

608

617

747

720

1,050

1,030

1,125

1,000

1,200

980

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25 PreviousFY25 RevisedFY26 PreviousFY26 RevisedFY27 PreviousFY27 Revised

EssentialSustainabilityGrowth

Fonterra’s long term capex outlook has moderated due to the potential sale of the In Scope Businesses. However, it remains high in the

short-term relative to historic levels as the Co-operative looks to increase growth and sustainability investment.

Long Term Capital Expenditure Outlook

Forecast

Following average capex over the last 5 years of ~$650m, Fonterra expects capex to increase by

~50% to an average of ~$1,000m over the period to FY27. We note that:

−Some catch-up in maintenance for existing plant (referred to as “essential” capex) is expected.

Given the previous LTA included all of Fonterra’s existing operations while the revised target

excludes the In Scope Businesses from FY26 onwards, the updated projection suggests that

Fonterra expects to spend more in the core NZ business in FY26 and FY27;

−The revised FY25 growth capex partially reflects recently announced growth projects including

the $75m high value protein hub at Studholme, the $150m UHT cream plant at Edendale and

the $150m cool store expansion at Whareroa. Overall, growth capex over the FY25 – FY27

period is largely unchanged despite the potential sale of the In Scope Businesses; and

−While capex to meet Fonterra’s sustainability goals (made up of investment in “decarbonisation”

and “regulatory requirements”) seems to have reduced, it remains high compared to historical

levels. We also note that some of this expenditure may have shifted beyond FY27 given other

strategic priorities. Sustainability capex includes investment in key projects such as coal to

electric / biomass boilers, improved refrigerants and wastewater collection.

The projections for the next three years represents a material increase in investment - ~$350 million

more than average capital expenditure over the FY20 – FY24 period and twice the current

depreciation charge (~$460 million). However, the FY27 capex is $220m lower than the previous LTA

target which potentially reflects the capex that would have been required to support the In Scope

Business or other investment reductions. We also suggest that:

−Growth capex enables Fonterra to grow the Ingredients and Foodservice business and develop new

products for customers to support more value and earnings growth for the Co-operative (e.g. the

new UHT cream plant);

−The essential capex is necessary to meet Fonterra’s asset health targets and follows a period of

relative under-investment. This capex may also contribute to improved processing and supply

chain efficiencies through technology advancements (e.g. automation) and asset flexibility;

−Similarly, the material increase in decarbonisation and regulatory capital expenditure is essential

to meet Fonterra’s own sustainability targets as well as the increased ESG demands of its

customers. While it is hard to determine the earnings or premium contribution from this

investment, without it, Fonterra could lose the increasing number of customers who are seeking

sustainably-sourced milk.

Capital Expenditure FY20 – FY30, LTA vs Revised Strategy (NZ$ million)

25

Appendix – Flexible Shareholdings
Section 3:

Flexible Shareholding

Review of FY24 Performance |
Fonterra’s recent capital structure changes and strong financial performance should support greater flexibility for farmers while maintaining

Fonterra’s competitiveness for milk supply.

Competition for NZ Milk and Shareholder Flexibility

Given that Fonterra’s revised strategy is designed to optimise the value of NZ milk volumes,

maintaining stability in its future milk volumes will be critical to future performance. Fonterra’s NZ

milk collections have been relatively stable over the last five years, an outcome that is consistent

with the overall market levelling off in terms of total milk production. This has resulted in Fonterra

maintaining ~79% market share since FY21, but we note a modest decline in FY24. Long-term NZ

milk volumes are also expected to remain broadly consistent with the current level, but with the

potential for further small declines.

The potential for increased competition, including from new market entrants, could however

impact on Fonterra’s milk volumes. Any further declines would generate excess processing

capacity and could have a negative impact on margins.

Recent changes to the minimum required shareholding (as outlined in the Appendix on page 40)

should support a more sustainable supply of milk, particularly in an environment of increased

competition from other processors who may not require farmers to invest capital to support supply

(i.e. buy shares). However, restricting share trading to meet Fonterra’s new minimum required

shareholding in the farmer-only market means that farmers now set the price for shares and this

has resulted in a larger disconnect between the Fonterra share price and the FSF unit price

(currently a 20% – 25% difference)

1

. See page 29 for a recent history of relative prices between

the shares and units.

While the changes to the minimum required shareholding reduce the investment needed by

farmers to continue to supply Fonterra, the investment in FCG shares remains material even at the

minimum level. Fonterra must therefore ensure that the shares deliver long-term returns in line

with the level of required investment and the risk profile of the business. The shares must be seen

as a compelling, standalone investment opportunity rather than just a cost of remaining with the

Co-op.

Any future loss of milk supply volumes could limit future earnings growth, but we also expect that it

may provide some potential benefits, including:

−Reducing the requirement for Fonterra to collect milk from farmer suppliers that may be of

marginal profitability (i.e. sub-optimal from a cost or volume basis, for instance, due to location

and size); and

−Reduce the need to invest in processing capacity or provide the opportunity to shutdown

marginal processing capacity and avoid capacity duplication with other milk processors.

Taking all factors into consideration, we consider that Fonterra’s future collection volumes may

decline further (through either or both of declines in total market collections and increased

competition), but the net earnings impact may be limited and more than offset by Fonterra’s other

strategic objectives.

Fonterra NZ Milk Collections and Market Share

27

1

As of October 2024

1,517

1,539

1,478

1,480

1,471

80.0%

79.0%

79.1%

79.0%

78.1%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Fonterra NZ Market Share

Milk Solids Collected (million kgMS)

Review of FY24 Performance |
121

1,035

229

244

1,024

167

301

949

171

Undershared

(less than 80%)

Close to Equally Shared

(80 - 120%)

Overshared

(Over 120%)

July 2023February 2024September 2024

Flexible Shareholding

28

Fonterra’s Flexible Shareholding was announced in May 2021 and introduced in April 2023. Since then,

Fonterra is required to periodically disclose certain shareholding metrics including ceased-farmer

holdings and the distribution of farmer shareholders relative to the Share Standard (1 share per kgMS

supplied). The recent September 2024 disclosure confirms that Fonterra remained within its specified

thresholds for the Flexible Shareholding metrics (shares on issue above the Share Standard, shares

held by ceased farmers and shares held by the Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund). However, the data also

highlights movements in farmer shareholdings relative to the Share Standard since the first disclosure

in July 2023.

Changes to the distribution of farmer milk supply relative to shareholding levels are summarised in the

chart below. Farmers described as “undershared” are those that have shares less than 80% relative to

the Share Standard, “close to equally shared” being those that are 80% – 120% of the Share Standard

and “overshared” being those with more than 120% of the Share Standard. Over the 14-month period

since July 2023, the data demonstrates significant compositional changes at the under and over

shared ends of the spectrum.

Farmer Milk Supply Relative to Share Standard (million kgMS)

Increase in # farms from 939 in

July 23 to 1,586 in Sep 24

Avg supply per farmer increased

from 129,000 to 190,000kgMS

Farmer shareholding levels relevant to milk supply have changed since the introduction of Fonterra’s flexible shareholding structure 18

months ago.

Increase in # farms from 1,276 in

July 23 to 1,422 in Sep 24

Avg supply per farmer decreased

from 179,000 to 120,000kgMS

While it is difficult to determine the drivers of changes in farmer shareholdings relative to milk

supply, we note that:

−Milk supply from undershared farmers continues to increase, from 121 million kgMS in July

2023 to 301 million kgMS in September 2024. This reflects an increase in the number of

farmers in this category (increased by ~650 to 1,588), as well as an increase in the average

milk supply per farmer (increased from 129,000kgMS to ~190,000kgMS vs an overall average

supply of 174,700kgMS). We expect that much of this increase reflects farm sales and new

farmers (~250 since July 2023) as they begin the process of sharing up, as well as production

growth (ie . increased average production relative to shares) and larger farmers sharing down

also contributing to the change;

−The number of farms that are close to equally shared has decreased by 540 (10%) since July

2023, broadly consistent with reduced volumes; and

−Milk supply in the overshared category has decreased by ~58 million kgMS despite an increase

of 150 farms in this category, but appears to have stabilized. There has been a significant

decrease in average farm supply from this group, from 179,000kgMS to 120,000kgMS. This

suggests that overshared farms are increasingly smaller farms.

Overshared farmers supplied 171 million kgMS in the 12

months to September 2024 (compared to the 229 million

kgMS supplied in the 12 months to July 2023)

Review of FY24 Performance |
362,787

267,581

225,809

71,152

116,064

120,199

107,182

461,687

238,089

176,475

65,453

44,530

63,123

62,080

824,474

505,670

402,284

136,605

160,595

183,322

169,262

2018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/20242024/2025

FCGFSF

Restricted Market Discount

Average Daily Trading Volume on NZXDiscount of FCG Share Price to FSF Unit Price

1

29

While the restricted market discount has reduced since Fonterra’s strategic update in May, it still remains ~25%. This is consistent with

the average discount since implementation in April 2023.

While the price of Fonterra shares (FCG) in the farmer-only market continues to trade at a significant

discount compared to units in the Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund (FSF), the discount has narrowed

since the all-time highs seen at the beginning of 2024. Some of this is likely due to Fonterra’s

strategic update in May, the potential for a capital return and Fonterra’s ongoing strong financial

performance. However, the current discount (ranging between 20% and 25%) is still consistent with

the average 25% discount that has prevailed since the new capital structure was implemented.

The discount is consistent with the broad level of restricted market discount expected at the time the

revised capital structure was put to shareholders. We expect the volatility in the relative prices

between FCG and FSF will continue.

While the discount has represented a relative loss in value for farmers who shared up before the

announcement of the capital structure review, the change has made it easier for new suppliers to

join the Co-op. Recent financial performance and the potential for a capital return, which would make

the cost of buying shares lower (all else equal), should also make ownership more attractive and

affordable (on a per kgMS basis).

1

Calculated as (FCG price per share / FSF price per share) - 1

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Price Discount

Capital Structure Review

Announcement Date

New Capital Structure

Implementation

Season to date

Source: Iress as at 30 September 2024

Appendix – Supporting Information

Review of FY24 Performance |
Continuing and Discontinuing Operations

31

NZ$ MillionFY23FY24

Continuing

Operations

Discontinued

Operations

Total

Group

Continuing

Operations

Discontinued

Operations

Total

Group

Sales Volume (‘000 MT)3,4974763,9733,470593,529

Total Revenue 24,5801,46626,04622,82217222,994

Cost of Goods Sold(20,399)(1,048)(21,447)(19,000)(106)(19,106)

Gross Profit

4,1814184,5993,822663,888

Gross Margin (%)17.0%28.5%17.7%16.7%38.4%16.9%

Operating Expenses(2,496)(303)(2,799)(2,369)(99)(2,468)

Other Items70348418107-107

Reported EBIT

1,7554632,2181,560(33)1,527

Reported EBIT Margin (%)7.1%31.6%8.5%6.8%(19.2%)6.6%

Normalisations-(337)(337)-6666

Normalised EBIT1,7551261,8811,560331,593

Reported Net Profit After Tax1,2413361,5771,168(40)1,128

Normalisations (post tax adjustments)-(248)(248)-6666

Normalised Net Profit After Tax1,241881,3291,168261,194

Review of FY24 Performance |
FY24 Integrated Scorecard

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

FY22

Actual

FY23

Actual

FY24

Actual

FY24

Scorecard

People

Serious harm853*4

Gender diversity (Band 12+)37.6%39.5%40.1%*40.0%

Culture Measure-7979-

1

Nature

GHG emissions (Scope 1,2)

2

(11.2%)(14.1%)(18.5%) *(15.6%)

FEP adoption (New Zealand)71%85%93%*92%

Water Improvement Plans in place-44.0%100.0%*100.0%

Relationships

Share of New Zealand milk collected for the season to 31 May79.1%79.0%78.1%79.0%

Delivered in full, on time (DIFOT, ex-New Zealand)51.6%53.2%70.8%80.0%

Financial / Assets &

Infrastructure

Cash operating expenses per kgMS (real)

3

1.391.441.461.37

Core Operations gross profit per kgMS (real)

4

10.329.518.128.52

Return on capital6.8%12.4%11.3%*8.0% - 9.0%

Farmgate Milk Price ($)9.308.227.83*7.25 – 8.75

5

Alignment Rights

Total shareholder return (share price plus dividend)$2.73 ($0.20)$3.20 ($1.00)

6

$2.97

7

($0.55)Not Available

On-farm profitability ($ per hectare)

8

4,1503,017Not AvailableNot Available

32

* Indicates that target was met

1. No target set for FY24

2. Relative to FY18 Baseline. Scope 1&2 including farms under Fonterra operational control

3. Based on New Zealand milk solids

4. Excludes the cost of milk. Based on New Zealand milk solids

5. FY24 Scorecard reflects opening forecast price for 2024 season

6. Includes 50-cent per share capital return

7. FCG closing share price on 31 July 2024

8. DairyNZ Economic Survey 2022-2023 (Owner-Operator)

Review of FY24 Performance |
FY25 Integrated Scorecard

33

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

FY23

Actual

FY24

Actual

FY25

Scorecard

People

Serious harm

1

181612

Percentage of Health, Safety and Wellbeing priority actions fully completed by due date76%77%95%

Culture Measure797981

Nature

GHG emissions (Scope 1,2)

2

(14.1%)(18.5%)(21.1%)

Absolute water reduction across manufacturing sites (15% by FY30)

2

(6.7%)(12.4%)(13.1%)

Relationships

Share of New Zealand milk collected for the season to 31 May79.0%78.1%78%

Delivered in full, on time (DIFOT, ex-New Zealand)53.2%70.8%80%

Financial / Assets &

Infrastructure

Cash operating expenses per kgMS (real)

3

1.351.361.43

Core Operations manufacturing cash costs per kgMS (real)

4

2.632.582.57

Return on capital (FY)12.4%11.3%8% - 10%

Farmgate Milk Price ($)8.227.837.75 – 9.25

Alignment Rights

Total shareholder return

(12-month Value Weighted Average Price of Fonterra Co-operative Unit plus dividend)

5

$2.82 ($1.00)$2.58 ($0.55)Not Available

On-farm profitability ($ per hectare)

6

3,017Not AvailableNot Available

1. A broader definition, which also includes Contractors, has been adopted for FY25 resulting in an increased number of injuries captured under the revised definition

2. Relative to FY18 Baseline. Scope 1&2 including farms under Fonterra operational control

3. Based on New Zealand and Australia milk solids. FY25 includes IT and digital transformation costs

4. Based on New Zealand milk solids collected. Excludes the cost of milk

5. Value Weighted Average Price (VWAP) for the period 1 October to 30 September. As an indicator for FY25, VWAP for the 12months to 31 August 2024 was $2.58. FY23 dividend includes 50-cent per share capital return

6. DairyNZ Economic Survey 2022-2023 (Owner-Operator)

Review of FY24 Performance |
Historical Financial Information

Sales Volume (‘000 MT)

Reported EBIT (NZ$ million)

Revenue (NZ$ million)

Normalised EBIT (NZ$ million)

Total Assets (NZ$ million)

Total Equity (NZ$ million)

1

1

Excluding non-controlling interests

Note: Includes continued & discontinued operations where known

34

Capital Expenditure (NZ$ million)

Free Cash Flow (NZ$ million)

4,3034,3134,1804,1234,1524,0694,102

3,924

3,973

3,529

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

18,845

17,199

19,232

20,438

19,920

20,975

21,124

23,425

26,046

22,994

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

974

1,358

1,155

902

812

879

952

991

1,881

1,593

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

942

1,431

1,120

269

-16

1,147

959

976

2,218

1,527

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

18,315

17,118

17,842

18,099

17,284

17,916

17,341

18,781

18,601

16,679

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

6,473

6,859

7,140

6,219

5,757

6,692

6,863

6,933

7,906

8,099

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

(1,372)

2,184

670

600

1,095

1,828

1,417

(324)

3,650

1,583

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

1531

944

851

861

600

419

545

587

668

614

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Review of FY24 Performance |
Reported EBIT Bridge by Segment and Channel

Reported EBIT Bridge by Channel

Reported EBIT Bridge by Segment

35

($658m)

($19m)

($14m)

$13m

$57m

$293m

($12m)

$100m

$45m

($496m)

$1,527m

$2,218m

ReportedIngredientsFoodserviceConsumerIngredientsFoodserviceConsumerIngredientsFoodserviceConsumerDiscontinued

Operations

Reported

FY23 EBITCore OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater ChinaFY24 EBIT

($658m)

$13m

($12m)

($19m)

$57m

$100m

($14m)

$293m

$45m

($496m)

$1,527m

$2,218m

ReportedCore OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater ChinaCore OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater ChinaCore OperationsGlobal MarketsGreater ChinaDiscontinued

Operations

Reported

FY23 EBITIngredientsFoodserviceConsumerFY24 EBIT

Review of FY24 Performance |
Summary of Normalisations

ItemImpact on EBITImpact on Gearing

Loss on Sale of DPA Brazil▲$66m loss on sale▼

Sale proceeds reduce Net Debt, while the loss on sale

decreases Equity. All else equal, the net impact should be

a reduction in Gearing.

Normalisation Adjustments to EBIT

NZ$ millionFY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Disposals$543m$23m$42m$337m($66m)

Impairment ($232m)($16m)($57m)--

Other / Strategy ($43m)----

Total$268m$7m($15m)$337m($66m)

Reported EBIT$1,147m$959m$976m$2,218m$1,527m

Normalisations($268m)($7m)$15m($337m)$66m

Normalised EBIT$879m$952m$991m$1,881m$1,593m

Impact of FY23 Normalisations

36

Review of FY24 Performance |
Long Term Reference vs Non-Reference Price Relativities

Reference vs Non-Reference Price Relativity Proxies

Price Margin between Reference and Non-Reference Proxies

37

Source: GDT

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Oct-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Oct-23

Dec-23

Feb-24

Apr-24

Jun-24

Aug-24

USD / MT

Whole Milk Powder (Reference Product)Cheddar (Non-Reference Product)

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Oct-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Oct-23

Dec-23

Feb-24

Apr-24

Jun-24

Aug-24

USD / MT

Whole Milk Powder (Reference Product)

Whole Milk Powder (Reference Product)

Review of FY24 Performance |
Historical Total Payout

Total Payout (Nominal NZ$ per kgMS)

Total Payout

1

(Real NZ$ per kgMS)

Note: Figures reflect the average payout for a 100% share-backed supplier

1

Adjustment made based on CPI average during relevant period, reflects price in today’s dollars

38

$5.33

$3.60

$4.25

$4.59

$4.10

$4.46

$7.66

$5.23

$6.37

$7.90

$6.40

$6.16

$8.50

$4.65

$4.30

$6.52

$6.79

$6.35

$7.19

$7.74

$9.50

$8.72

$8.38

FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Dividend per ShareFarmgate Milk Price

10 Year Average Payout of $7.01 per

kgMS ($6.75 excluding dividends)

$9.28

$6.12

$7.10

$7.47

$6.45

$6.83

$11.38

$7.52

$9.00

$10.75

$8.52

$8.13

$11.05

$6.01

$5.54

$8.28

$8.50

$7.81

$8.68

$9.17

$10.59

$9.10

$8.38

FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24

Dividend per ShareFarmgate Milk Price

10 Year Average Payout of $8.21 per

kgMS ($7.90 excluding dividends)

Review of FY24 Performance |
Historical Earnings per Share Performance vs Guidance

Historical Earnings Per Share Guidance Midpoint vs Actual Reported

= Actual EPS Reported at

end of guidance period

39

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18Mar-19Sep-19Mar-20Sep-20Mar-21Sep-21Mar-22Sep-22Mar-23Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24

Review of FY24 Performance |
Flexible Shareholding Summary

A new Flexible Shareholding structure came into effect during FY23. The key changes between

the old structure and the new structure are summarised in the table below.

Key ItemsOld StructureNew Structure

Increased flexibilityShare minimum: 1:1 / 100%Share minimum: 1:3 / 33%

Move to a farmer-only market

with the Fund capped

Shares and units traded and

exchanged between FSF and

FCG.

Capped FSF, can only transfer

units into shares

More types of farmers can hold

shares

Supplying Farmer owners and

sharemilkers if transferred

Addition of associated

sharemilkers, contract milkers

and farm lessors

Entry provision easedUp to 3 seasons to enter

Share-up & My Milk offered

Up to 6 seasons to enter

No Share-up & My Milk

Exit provisions extendedUp to 3 seasons to exit,

minimum 1/3 per year

Large extension for current and

new supplying farmers

Same voting rights1 vote per 1000 kgMS supplied

(share-backed)

1 vote per 1000 kgMS supplied

(share-backed)

MetricAs at July 2023As at July 2024Threshold

Total Shares on Issue above the

aggregate Share Standard

12.22%13.13%+/- 15.00%

Shares Held by Ceased Shareholders

and Permitted Transfers

9.23%10.19%≤ 25.00%

Shares held for the Fonterra

Shareholders’ Fund (“Overall Limit”)

6.67%6.67%≤ 10.00%

Since Flexible Shareholding came into effect on 28

th

March 2023, there hasn’t been any material

change to the Group’s shareholding structure. As at 31

st

July 2024, the Group was well within the

specified thresholds for all three Flexible Shareholding metrics:

40

Review of FY24 Performance |
Comparable Company Performance

41

Fonterra is very different to other entities operating in the NZ dairy sector and to overseas dairy co-ops and companies. This is due to a range of factors including the DIRA regulatory regime, scale and

product mix. Arguably the most comparable entities to Fonterra can be found overseas. This includes Arla and Friesland Campina, which are both farmer co-operatives (based in Denmark and the

Netherlands respectively) with substantial commodity and consumer operations. However, neither company is subject to the same re gulatory regime as Fonterra.

The comparisons on the following pages provide a high-level overview of revenue and earnings over time for companies in both dairy ingredients and value-add sectors, along with a single ‘point in time’

view of summary financial ratios. It is important to note that these comparisons do not take into account the differing mix of c ore dairy ingredients and value-add divisions for each company, which is a

key driver of the differing margins and gearing.

They also do not take into account different regulatory regimes for the other dairy co-operatives and the impact such regimes may have on margins, capital investment required and ultimate returns.

Finally, the performance trends over time all reflect the currency exchange rates at the relevant time, and relative changes in those rates may affect the values presented.

Dairy Co-ops

All figures are quoted in New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated. Figures sourced from Capital IQ and Annual Reports

Note: Companies presented here have a December financial year end compared to Fonterra’s July year end

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ MillionsNZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

Review of FY24 Performance |
Comparable Company Performance (Continued)

42

Dairy Companies

All figures are quoted in New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated. Figures sourced from Capital IQ and Annual Reports

Note: Companies presented here have a December financial year end compared to Fonterra’s July year end

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NZ$ Millions

NZ$ Millions

RevenueEBIT (RHS)

Review of FY24 Performance |
28.7%

57.6%

23.2%

46.2%

36.4%

52.2%

16.6%

24.0%

10.7%

16.8%

3.1%

12.6%

1.6%

3.7%

5.8%

6.9%

EBIT Margin

Gearing Ratio

Average EBIT Margin

10.8%

Average Gearing

38.9%

Average EBIT Margin

(excl. Fonterra) 3.7%

Average Gearing (excl.

Fonterra) 35.1%

Dairy Companies

Dairy Co-ops

Dairy Companies

Dairy Co-ops

43

All figures are quoted in New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated. Figures sourced from Capital IQ and Annual Reports

Note: Companies presented here have a December financial year end compared to Fonterra’s July year end

Review of FY24 Performance |
35.4%

29.3%

29.4%

34.7%

Kerry

Nestlé

Savencia

(formerly

Bongrain)

Danone

12.0%

16.6%

37.5%

12.2%

Friesland

Campina

Arla

Tine

Fonterra

46.1%

46.1%

32.5%

47.4%

13.6%

20.3%

43.4%

16.9%

Gross Margin

Operating Expenses to Sales

Dairy Companies

Dairy Co-ops

Average Gross Margin

43.0%

Average Gross Margin

(excl. Fonterra) 25.8%

Dairy Companies

Dairy Co-ops

44

All figures are quoted in New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated. Figures sourced from Capital IQ and Annual Reports

Note: Companies presented here have a December financial year end compared to Fonterra’s July year end

Average Opex to

Sales 32.2%

Average Opex to Sales

(excl. Fonterra) 22.1%

Review of FY24 Performance |
•The share price data below provides comparisons to New Zealand and international dairy competitors to illustrate the performance of Fonterra’s share price against some of the company’s peers.

•Fonterra is the only entity within our Co-op set that is both a co-operative and a publicly listed company, therefore comparison of market pricing has only been completed against other publicly listed

companies. Similar to prior analysis, it is important to note that this does not take into account any regulatory differences or local market conditions that may ultimately impact share price data. It also

excludes dividends paid to shareholders or unitholders.

•The below chart demonstrates the performance of Fonterra Co-operative shares over the period from 1 August 2023 (start of FY24) to 9 October 2024 demonstrating a return of 37% over the period

(excluding dividends but adjusting for the capital return which occurred in August 2023). This compares favourably to both Fonterra’s domestic and international peers.

Daily price information has been rebased in NZD to 1 August 2023 for comparability between share price and local currency. Fonterra returns also adjusted for its August 2023 capital return

Source: Iress and Capital IQ as at 9 October 2024, Fonterra share price is represented by FCG.NZ

New Zealand Dairy Manufacturers

Global Dairy Competitors

Share Price Performance – Dairy Competitors

45

1.37x

0.25x

1.27x

-

0.2x

0.4x

0.6x

0.8x

1.0x

1.2x

1.4x

1.6x

FonterraSynlaitA2 Milk

1.37x

1.17x

0.97x

1.04x

0.6x

0.8x

1.0x

1.2x

1.4x

1.6x

FonterraDanoneSavencia GroupKerry

Review of FY24 Performance |
-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Oct-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Oct-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Oct-23

Dec-23

Feb-24

Apr-24

Jun-24

Aug-24

Price Discount

Capital Structure Review

Announcement Date

~29% average

discount over the

last 12 months

FSF and FCG Share Price Comparison

Daily Share Price Comparison

1

Discount of FCG Share Price to FSF Unit Price

1

46

1

Uses daily volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Source: Iress as at 30 September 2024

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

Oct-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Oct-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Oct-23

Dec-23

Feb-24

Apr-24

Jun-24

Aug-24

NZD per Share Unit

FSF Unit PriceFCG Share Price

Capital Structure Review

Announcement Date

New Capital Structure

Implementation

New Capital Structure

Implementation

Review of FY24 Performance |
Publicly Listed Companies

47

Source: Capital IQ as at 30 September 2024

TickerCompany NameDomicileMarket Cap

(NZD m)

Enterprise Value

(NZD m)

NTM EBIT

(NZD m)

EV / NTM EBIT

ENXTPA:SAVESavencia S.A.France1,2192,6174046.5x

SEHK:2319China Mengniu Dairy Company LimitedCayman Islands14,84919,8621,45513.6x

TSX:SAPSaputo Inc.Canada14,40718,4351,30714.1x

ENXTPA:BNDanone S.A.France73,70491,4206,34714.4x

SHSE:600887Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd.China41,30746,4382,90316.0x

SWX:NESNNestlé S.A.Switzerland406,368518,27430,28217.1x

ISE:KRZKerry Group plcIreland27,81431,0661,75217.7x

ASX:BGABega Cheese LimitedAustralia1,7472,13111818.1x

Average

14.7x

Median

15.2x

Review of FY24 Performance |
Abbreviations & Definitions

TermDefinition

CAGRCompound average growth rate

CapexCapital expenditure

Co-op, Group or the CompanyFonterra Co-operative Group Limited

CYCalendar year ending 31 December

DIRADairy Industry Restructuring Act

DPA BrazilDairy Partners Americas Brazil

EBITEarnings before interest and tax

EBITDAEarnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation

EPSEarnings per share

ESGEnvironmental, social and governance

FCGShares in Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd (FCG.NZ)

FGMPFarmgate Milk Price

FSFShares in Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund (FSF.NZ)

FundFonterra Shareholders’ Fund (FSF.NZ)

FYFinancial year ending 31 July

GDTGlobal Dairy Trade

In Scope BusinessesGlobal Consumer business together with Fonterra Oceania and Fonterra Sri Lanka

kgMSKilograms of milk solids

LTAsLong-Term Aspirations

MTMetric tonnes

NPATNet profit after tax

Non-Reference ProductsProducts that are not included in the calculation of the Farmgate Milk Price

NTMNext Twelve Months

NWCNet working capital

NZDNew Zealand dollars

PP&EPlant, property and equipment

Price RelativitiesRefers to the difference in the weighted average price (in USD) between the Reference Product portfolio and Non Reference Product portfolio

Reference ProductsIncludes commodity products and groups that are included in the calculation of the Farmgate Milk Price

Share StandardMeans one share per one kgMS supplied

RHSRight hand side (axis)

ROC or ROCEReturn on capital employed

SMP

Skim milk powder

TSR

Total shareholder return

USDUnited States dollars

WACCWeighted average cost of capital

WMPWhole milk powder

48

www.northington.co.nz
Auckland

Level 33, Vero Centre

48 Shortland Street

PO Box 105-384

Auckland 1143

Christchurch

L4, Anderson Lloyd House

70 Gloucester Street

PO Box 13-804

Christchurc h 8011

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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