MLN – December 2024 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for November was up +5.3%,
while the adjusted NAV return was up +5.0%. This compared
with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap
Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was up +5.0%.
Market Environment
US markets had a strong month in November on the back of
Donald Trump being re-elected as US President. The US S&P500
(+5%) outperformed Europe (flat), emerging markets (-4%) and
China (-5%). This is due to potential stimulatory moves such as
tax cuts, removing regulatory roadblocks to investment, and
tariffs to be imposed on foreign goods.
In the US, there was significant activity happening behind the
scenes. For example, profitless technology (think cryptocurrency,
Coinbase, ARKK
2
etc.) was up circa 27% and Tesla was up circa
39% given Elon Musk’s association with Trump.
Outside of that, small caps and value related stocks sharply
outperformed growth (e.g. Russell 2000 +10%, Financials +10%,
Industrials +7% vs. Nasdaq +5%). Also, there was a broadening
out in US tech, with a new term coined the Mag70 (previously
the Mag7). This occurred in anticipation of a more favourable
M&A backdrop under Trump’s administration, which potentially
unlocks strategic M&A value for smaller technology companies.
Portfolio
Salesforce (+13%) benefited from improved sentiment around
software stocks; and positive reception of its new AI Agentforce
product. Software companies have been through a period of
sluggish growth the last two years as customers digested high
IT spend during COVID; and as IT budgets were shifted towards
AI projects. But we are seeing signs that software spend is
recovering which has led to improving sentiment across the
sector. The AI Agentforce product was unveiled in September
and has received strong initial feedback from customers.
Agentforce is an autonomous AI agent that can interact with
customers or employees; for example, helping automate patient
appointment scheduling for doctor clinics. While Agentforce is
largely in the testing phase with these customers, this has the
potential to be a material growth driver for Salesforce.
Netflix (+17%) continued to rise following a positive earnings
report in October, driven by strong subscriber growth and
margins. The month featured the highly publicized Tyson-Paul
boxing match, which drew 60 million households, and with two
NFL games scheduled for Christmas Day, Netflix is positioning
itself as an attractive advertising platform. Additionally, the
company’s ability to increase prices in its largest markets, the
U.S. and Canada, along with the untapped potential of its
advertising business, creates a positive outlook for Netflix moving
forward.
Amazon (+12%) had a solid November on the back of positive
third quarter earnings result. The main theme in the quarter
was margins in both AWS and ecommerce. AWS recorded
its highest ever quarterly operating profit margin at 38%, the
result of measured spending and revenue growth reaccelerating
after a period of measured customer spend post pandemic.
Amazon’s ecommerce margins continue to improve post the
large investment made into its logistics infrastructure. While
North American ecommerce margins were better than expected
in the quarter, Amazon’s international ecommerce margins
were the star. This quarter showed that Amazon’s international
ecommerce business continues to close the profitability gap to
North America as more of its international markets mature.
Floor & Décor (+9%) reported better than expected earnings
at the end of October, driven by cost discipline. Floor & Décor
continues to take market share against a tough macroeconomic
backdrop for flooring. Given the share price weakness in the last
two months, we added weight during November.
Danaher (-2%) and Icon (-5%) declined on Trumps’ election,
and also in Icon’s case, continued underperformance following
its guidance downgrade last month as several large pharma
customers reduced their R&D budgets, and biotech spend has
been slow to recover. Trump selected Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to
be Health and Human Services secretary, and while specific
policies have not been announced, given Kennedy’s history of
anti-pharma and anti-FDA rhetoric, this was seen as negative
for drugmakers and portfolio companies like Danaher and Icon
that provide services or products to these customers. That
said, his nomination is far from certain. Firstly, Kennedy needs
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
2
ARK Innovation
MONTHLY UPDATE
December 2024
$
0.92
SHARE PRICE
as at 30 November 2024
WARRANT PRICE
$
0.02
DISCOUNT
1
9.5
%
MLN NAV
$
1.0 2
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 30 November 2024
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.00
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
218m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$205m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
to get senate approval, and he is not necessarily a consensus
candidate; and many changes to federal agencies would
require Congressional oversight or legislation change, so major
changes to the status quo could be challenging. But markets
and companies do not like uncertainty. Until we get more
clarity around policy – we may see biotech and pharmaceutical
companies being hesitant to start new development projects,
which would also be a temporary headwind for companies like
Icon and Danaher.
Alphabet (-1%) was soft during the month after the US
Department of Justice (DOJ) released its proposed solutions for
the anti-trust case they won against Alphabet in August. The
solutions proposed by the DOJ are wide ranging and include
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 30 November 2024
32
%
10
%
19
%
FINANCIALS
20
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 30 November 2024
4
%
WESTERN
EUROPE
80
%
NORTH
AMERICA
18
%
16
%
ASIA PACIFIC
HEALTH CARE
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
1
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
options requiring Alphabet to split off parts of its business such
as Chrome and requiring Alphabet to open its data and IP of
its search engine to competitors. This is to reduce Alphabet’s
dominant position in global internet search. A final decision on
solutions will be decided by the judge in August 2025. Alphabet
is appealing the initial judgement against them and the remedies
judgement will also likely be appealed later in 2025. The case
likely has several years to play out before a conclusion is
reached, we continue to monitor developments closely.
3
NOVEMBER’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
(in local currency) during the month
NETFLIX
+17
%
SALESFORCE
+13
%
AMAZON
+12
%
FLOOR & DÉCOR
HOLDINGS
+11
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 30 November 2024
AMAZON
8
%
MICROSOFT
7
%
ALPHABET
6
%
MASTERCARD
6
%
FLOOR & DÉCOR
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 30 November 2024
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+0.1%(2.3%)+10.5%(9.2%)+7.3%
Adjusted NAV Return+5.0%+4.3%+18.9%+1.7%+8.8%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +5.3%+5.2%+22.7%+4.0%+11.8%
Benchmark Index^+5.0%+7.8%+28.6%+8.7%+10.7%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
DEXCOM
+9
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 30 November 2024
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
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2021
Nov
2023
Nov
2024
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on
29 April 2024
»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin
shareholders in early May 2024
»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 16 May 2024
»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the
NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment of
the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before
the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest according
to the Management Agreement
and other written policies. Marlin’s
portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds
Management Limited. Sam Dickie
(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),
and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty
(Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.