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MLN – February 2025 monthly update

Investor Presentation16 February 2025MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for January was +3.6%, while

the adjusted NAV return was +3.5%. This compared with our

global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index

(50% hedged to NZD), which was +2.6%.

Market Backdrop

January saw the biggest rotation from US stocks into Eurozone

stocks in almost a decade, with the MSCI Europe up 7% vs

3% for the S&P 500 index. European stocks, including banks,

pharmaceuticals and luxury retailers all performed well, even as

economic data showed an unexpected slowing of the domestic

economy in Q4, raising the prospect of further interest rate cuts

by the European Central Bank.

This contrasts with the US, where strong economic growth data

and sticky inflation caused the Federal Reserve to pause rate

cuts. The Fed’s job of controlling inflation has been made more

challenging by the fluid trade and tariff policies proposed by

President Donald Trump - the first of which being 25% tariffs on

Mexico and Canada; and 10% on China, was put in place after

month end. A few hours later, the Mexican and Canadian tariffs

were paused.

The other big driver of market performance this month was the

launch of a low-cost AI model from Chinese start-up DeepSeek,

which caused a major sell-off in artificial-intelligence (AI) related

stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index (+2%) underperformed the

wider US index for the month. Within days of launch, DeepSeek’s

AI Assistant had overtaken ChatGPT to become the top-rated

free application available on Apple’s App Store in the United

States. The success of this low-cost AI model from China raised

questions around the commoditisation of AI large-language

models and the sustainability of the tens of billions of dollars

being spent by large US tech companies on their AI ambitions;

but also, a reminder that China is still very much in the global AI

arms race.

Portfolio Commentary

Meta (+18%) posted good quarterly earnings in January,

exceeding expectations on revenue, number of users, profit

margins and earnings for the quarter. Investments in AI to date

are paying off, with its AI automation ad product, Advantage+,

growing 70% to $20b revenue in size. Meta continues to show

they have a number of different avenues to continue driving

growth. Meta is beginning to test how to monetise its new app

Threads, and WhatsApp, which while small, are growing quickly

and now have 100m monthly active users in the US, a market

that has been slower to adopt WhatsApp relative to the rest of

the world. Meta is continuing to invest heavily into AI, expecting

to spend $60-$65b of capex this year, higher than previously

anticipated.

January saw strong performance for several of our medical

device names including Boston Scientific (+15%), Dexcom

(+12%) and Intuitive Surgical (+10%). Boston and Intuitive

reported continued strong results for Q4 as they both noted

high demand for their innovative new medical devices. Boston’s

Farapulse device is quickly becoming the leading treatment for

paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Intuitive is seeing success in the

early roll-out of its next generation DV5 surgical robot. Dexcom

continues to show progress in turning the business around

following several execution missteps in 2024: with Q4 revenues

coming in ahead of expectations and growth accelerating into

2025.

Hermes (+17%) had a strong month despite weak results from

peer LVMH

2

. Earlier in the month, Hermes put through price

increases in Europe, China and the US on many of its products.

While it is normal for the company to increase prices at this time

of year, the market has been quite bearish on the luxury sector

in general and was perhaps not expecting a normal level of price

increases.

Greggs (-23%) shares fell sharply in January after the company

reported a weak fourth quarter result. Same store sales growth

was weaker than expected and management expect the weak

trading environment to continue through the first half of 2025.

Greggs remain committed to its store roll-out targets and

continue to invest in supply chain and manufacturing capacity to

support the larger store count. Greggs has been taking market

share in the UK food-to-go sector by improving its customer

value proposition through expanding the menu, offering more

delivery options and extending opening hours to capture evening

traffic.

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

2

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, commonly known as LVMH, is a European multinational holding company and conglomerate that specializes in luxury goods and has its

headquarters in Paris, France.

MONTHLY UPDATE

February 2025

$

0.99

SHARE PRICE

as at 31 January 2025

WARRANT PRICE

$

0.02

DISCOUNT

1

6.0

%


MLN NAV

$

1.0 6

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 31 January 2025

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$0.98

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

219m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$217m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

Danaher (-3%) and Icon (-5%) declined as the anticipated

recovery in the pharma and biotech customer base continues

to get pushed out. Both companies gave 2025 guidance below

expectations, citing pockets of weakness, particularly in the

biotech market, where higher interest rates and political policy

uncertainty under the new Trump administration are causing

companies to be more cautious in their spending.

Microsoft (-2%) shares were weak post earnings at the end of

January. While overall revenue and earnings were better than

expected, Microsoft’s important cloud business, Azure, reported

weaker than expected growth. Azure has not been able to

meet the strong AI related demand due to supply constraints

in datacentre land, buildings and power. The constraints are

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 January 2025

31

%

10

%

19

%


FINANCIALS

21

%

GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT

as at 31 January 2025

5

%

WESTERN

EUROPE

79

%

NORTH

AMERICA

17

%

16

%


ASIA PACIFIC

HEALTH CARE

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

2

%


CASH &

DERIVATIVES

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

expected to continue for a couple more quarters as it brings new

datacentre capacity online. AI related revenue came in stronger

than expected at circa $13b and is showing its AI software

like Microsoft Copilots are gaining traction within enterprise

customers. Proft margins were 2% better than expected. After a

sharp acceleration in capex growth for the past couple of years,

Microsoft expects capex growth to decelerate from here and to

grow more in-line with revenue growth.

3
JANUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO (in local currency) during the month

META PLATFORMS

+18

%

HERMES

INTERNATIONAL

+17

%

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC

+15

%

GREGGS

+12

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 January 2025

AMAZON

8

%

MICROSOFT

7

%

MASTERCARD

6

%

ASML HOLDINGS

6

%

ALPHABET

6

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 January 2025

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+4.3%+10.1%+11.7%(2.2%)+7.2%

Adjusted NAV Return+3.5%+11.1%+17.7%+3.6%+9.5%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +3.6%+12.0%+21.5%+6.0%+12.5%

Benchmark Index^+2.6%+6.4%+23.3%+9.6%+10.8%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.

GARTNER

-23

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 January 2025

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

Share Price Total Shareholder Return

Nov

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2024

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised

for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on

29 April 2024

»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin

shareholders in early May 2024

»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders

on 16 May 2024

»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the

NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted

down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash

dividends declared on the shares with a record date

during the period commencing on the date of allotment of

the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before

the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin

»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated

to it from the Board to invest according

to the Management Agreement

and other written policies. Marlin’s

portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds

Management Limited. Sam Dickie

(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),

and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty

(Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing the Marlin

portfolio. Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in

Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.