MLN – February 2025 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for January was +3.6%, while
the adjusted NAV return was +3.5%. This compared with our
global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was +2.6%.
Market Backdrop
January saw the biggest rotation from US stocks into Eurozone
stocks in almost a decade, with the MSCI Europe up 7% vs
3% for the S&P 500 index. European stocks, including banks,
pharmaceuticals and luxury retailers all performed well, even as
economic data showed an unexpected slowing of the domestic
economy in Q4, raising the prospect of further interest rate cuts
by the European Central Bank.
This contrasts with the US, where strong economic growth data
and sticky inflation caused the Federal Reserve to pause rate
cuts. The Fed’s job of controlling inflation has been made more
challenging by the fluid trade and tariff policies proposed by
President Donald Trump - the first of which being 25% tariffs on
Mexico and Canada; and 10% on China, was put in place after
month end. A few hours later, the Mexican and Canadian tariffs
were paused.
The other big driver of market performance this month was the
launch of a low-cost AI model from Chinese start-up DeepSeek,
which caused a major sell-off in artificial-intelligence (AI) related
stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index (+2%) underperformed the
wider US index for the month. Within days of launch, DeepSeek’s
AI Assistant had overtaken ChatGPT to become the top-rated
free application available on Apple’s App Store in the United
States. The success of this low-cost AI model from China raised
questions around the commoditisation of AI large-language
models and the sustainability of the tens of billions of dollars
being spent by large US tech companies on their AI ambitions;
but also, a reminder that China is still very much in the global AI
arms race.
Portfolio Commentary
Meta (+18%) posted good quarterly earnings in January,
exceeding expectations on revenue, number of users, profit
margins and earnings for the quarter. Investments in AI to date
are paying off, with its AI automation ad product, Advantage+,
growing 70% to $20b revenue in size. Meta continues to show
they have a number of different avenues to continue driving
growth. Meta is beginning to test how to monetise its new app
Threads, and WhatsApp, which while small, are growing quickly
and now have 100m monthly active users in the US, a market
that has been slower to adopt WhatsApp relative to the rest of
the world. Meta is continuing to invest heavily into AI, expecting
to spend $60-$65b of capex this year, higher than previously
anticipated.
January saw strong performance for several of our medical
device names including Boston Scientific (+15%), Dexcom
(+12%) and Intuitive Surgical (+10%). Boston and Intuitive
reported continued strong results for Q4 as they both noted
high demand for their innovative new medical devices. Boston’s
Farapulse device is quickly becoming the leading treatment for
paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Intuitive is seeing success in the
early roll-out of its next generation DV5 surgical robot. Dexcom
continues to show progress in turning the business around
following several execution missteps in 2024: with Q4 revenues
coming in ahead of expectations and growth accelerating into
2025.
Hermes (+17%) had a strong month despite weak results from
peer LVMH
2
. Earlier in the month, Hermes put through price
increases in Europe, China and the US on many of its products.
While it is normal for the company to increase prices at this time
of year, the market has been quite bearish on the luxury sector
in general and was perhaps not expecting a normal level of price
increases.
Greggs (-23%) shares fell sharply in January after the company
reported a weak fourth quarter result. Same store sales growth
was weaker than expected and management expect the weak
trading environment to continue through the first half of 2025.
Greggs remain committed to its store roll-out targets and
continue to invest in supply chain and manufacturing capacity to
support the larger store count. Greggs has been taking market
share in the UK food-to-go sector by improving its customer
value proposition through expanding the menu, offering more
delivery options and extending opening hours to capture evening
traffic.
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
2
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, commonly known as LVMH, is a European multinational holding company and conglomerate that specializes in luxury goods and has its
headquarters in Paris, France.
MONTHLY UPDATE
February 2025
$
0.99
SHARE PRICE
as at 31 January 2025
WARRANT PRICE
$
0.02
DISCOUNT
1
6.0
%
MLN NAV
$
1.0 6
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 January 2025
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.98
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
219m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$217m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
Danaher (-3%) and Icon (-5%) declined as the anticipated
recovery in the pharma and biotech customer base continues
to get pushed out. Both companies gave 2025 guidance below
expectations, citing pockets of weakness, particularly in the
biotech market, where higher interest rates and political policy
uncertainty under the new Trump administration are causing
companies to be more cautious in their spending.
Microsoft (-2%) shares were weak post earnings at the end of
January. While overall revenue and earnings were better than
expected, Microsoft’s important cloud business, Azure, reported
weaker than expected growth. Azure has not been able to
meet the strong AI related demand due to supply constraints
in datacentre land, buildings and power. The constraints are
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 January 2025
31
%
10
%
19
%
FINANCIALS
21
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 January 2025
5
%
WESTERN
EUROPE
79
%
NORTH
AMERICA
17
%
16
%
ASIA PACIFIC
HEALTH CARE
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
2
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
expected to continue for a couple more quarters as it brings new
datacentre capacity online. AI related revenue came in stronger
than expected at circa $13b and is showing its AI software
like Microsoft Copilots are gaining traction within enterprise
customers. Proft margins were 2% better than expected. After a
sharp acceleration in capex growth for the past couple of years,
Microsoft expects capex growth to decelerate from here and to
grow more in-line with revenue growth.
3
JANUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO (in local currency) during the month
META PLATFORMS
+18
%
HERMES
INTERNATIONAL
+17
%
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC
+15
%
GREGGS
+12
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 January 2025
AMAZON
8
%
MICROSOFT
7
%
MASTERCARD
6
%
ASML HOLDINGS
6
%
ALPHABET
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 January 2025
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+4.3%+10.1%+11.7%(2.2%)+7.2%
Adjusted NAV Return+3.5%+11.1%+17.7%+3.6%+9.5%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +3.6%+12.0%+21.5%+6.0%+12.5%
Benchmark Index^+2.6%+6.4%+23.3%+9.6%+10.8%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
GARTNER
-23
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 January 2025
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
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2011
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2013
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2014
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2015
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2008
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2009
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2010
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2016
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2020
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2012
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2022
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2017
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2018
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2019
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2021
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2023
Nov
2024
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on
29 April 2024
»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin
shareholders in early May 2024
»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 16 May 2024
»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the
NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment of
the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before
the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest according
to the Management Agreement
and other written policies. Marlin’s
portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds
Management Limited. Sam Dickie
(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),
and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty
(Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.