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MLN – March 2025 monthly update

Investor Presentation16 March 2025MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for February was -3.0%, while

the adjusted NAV return was -3.1%. This compared with our

global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index

(50% hedged to NZD), which was -1.4%.

Market Environment

There was a big shift from US stocks to Eurozone equities, with

the Europe STOXX 600 Index +3.3% compared to a -1.4%

decline for the S&P 500 Index. This marks one of Europe’s

strongest relative starts to the year since 2000.

This was a partial unwind of the sharp outperformance of US

equities over the last couple of years, but especially since Trump

was elected. It was also a response to the elevated policy

uncertainty coming out of the US and a more dovish European

Central Bank verses a more hawkish US Central Bank. The

European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis

points to 2.75% in late January (and again in early March as I

type), responding to a stagnating Eurozone economy. In contrast,

the US Federal Reserve maintained its key rate at 4.25%-4.50%,

pausing its cutting cycle that began in September. This decision

was influenced by robust economic growth and stubborn

inflation.

The sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks in late

January, triggered by increased competition from China, was

followed by a sell-off in broader tech stocks in February. The

market questioned the rising capex with uncertain return on that

capex. We have been taking some weight out of our large tech

holdings for the past few months.

Portfolio

Tencent (+19% in local currency) rallied alongside the wider

Chinese tech sector. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s release of

an AI model that performed on par with leading US AI models

ignited investor enthusiasm. Tencent is already benefiting from

AI-driven technology in its advertising business and is now

rolling out AI features into its WeChat app. Sentiment was

further boosted by a more supportive stance from the Chinese

government, with President Xi Jinping meeting tech leaders

during the month. This follows several years of intense regulatory

oversight on the private tech sector.

Mastercard (+4%) reported solid Q4 earnings at the end of

January which supported its share price through February. All

key metrics were stronger than expected, with cross-border and

US payment volumes being the highlights. Both cross-border

and US payments volumes accelerated growth from Q3 to Q4

and were stronger than expected. Additionally, quarter-to-date

metrics showed that the US growth acceleration has sustained

so far. Mastercard continue to see robust consumer spending

supported by high employment rates, solid wage growth, and

wealth effects for affluent consumers. Mastercard continues

to penetrate the global payments market as consumers are

increasingly using card payments over cash and checks for

traditional consumer-to-business payments, and is penetrating

other payment flows such as business-to-business.

Dexcom (+2%) reported quarterly earnings during the month.

They had pre-released results at an investor conference in

January so there were few surprises. Dexcom continues to

show progress in turning the business around following several

execution missteps in 2024 and has several tailwinds going

forward including commercial coverage for Type-2 non-insulin

users; the shift to a 15 day sensor (from 10 days) which will

boost profit margins; and the launch of the next-gen G8

continuous glucose monitor next year.

Alphabet (-17%) sold off during February on a weaker than

expected results from Google Cloud and an unexpected step

up in capex. Alphabet’s Search and YouTube businesses

were better than expected. Google Cloud reported the first

deceleration of growth in four quarters. Like peers Amazon and

Microsoft, Google Cloud is datacenter capacity constrained and

struggling to meet AI demand. As a result, Alphabet materially

increased its expected capex spending for 2025 to $75b from

$52b in 2024. With slowing Google Cloud revenue growth,

investors are questioning the future return on this large capex

investment. Alphabet continues to see good momentum with AI

Overviews which has been additive to existing Search volumes

with consumers searching more often and with new queries.

We have been reducing our weight in Alphabet for the past few

months.


1

Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

March 2025

$

0.99

SHARE PRICE

as at 28 February 2025

WARRANT PRICE

$

0.01

DISCOUNT

1

3.2

%


MLN NAV

$

1.0 3

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 28 February 2025

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$0.98

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

219m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$217m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

Unitedhealth Group (-12%) fell as the US’s largest health

insurer faces scrutiny post the murder of one of its executives

in December and amongst increasing public dissatisfaction

with the US healthcare system. Reports that the DOJ and

senate are investigating US health insurance practices, coupled

with healthcare spending cuts proposed by the new Trump

administration drove negative sentiment on the sector. Health

insurance companies like UNH provide a critical role in the

complex and fragmented US healthcare system, but also

operate in a constantly evolving regulated environment.

Amazon (-11%) shares fell in February on the back of a

mixed quarterly results. Revenue in its key segments of

cloud, eCommerce and advertising came in slightly softer

than expected, but margins continue to exceed expectations,

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 28 February 2025

31

%

10

%

19

%


FINANCIALS

22

%

GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT

as at 28 February 2025

5

%

WESTERN

EUROPE

79

%

NORTH

AMERICA

16

%

16

%


ASIA PACIFIC

HEALTH CARE

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

2

%


CASH &

DERIVATIVES

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

resulting in higher operating income than expected. Like

Alphabet and Microsoft, Amazon is also increasing its capex

spend in response to the AI demand they are seeing in its

cloud business, AWS. AWS currently has datacenter capacity

constraints due to AI demand and the company believes AWS

would have grown faster without these constraints. Margin

expansion remains impressive and is being driven by efficiency

gains on the logistics infrastructure it invested into during the

pandemic to accommodate growing eCommerce volumes.

3
FEBRUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO (in local currency) during the month

TENCENT

+19

%

AMAZON

-11

%

UNITED HEALTH

-12

%

ALPHABET

-13

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 28 February 2025

MICROSOFT

8

%

AMAZON

8

%

MASTERCARD

6

%

ASML HOLDINGS

6

%

FLOOR & DÉCOR

6

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 28 February 2025

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(0.2%)+9.8%+7.1%(1.2%)+9.2%

Adjusted NAV Return(3.1%)+2.5%+6.0%+6.0%+9.5%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (3.0%)+3.1%+9.2%+8.4%+12.6%

Benchmark Index^(1.4%)(0.0%)+16.3%+10.1%+12.0%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.

SALESFORCE

-17

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 28 February 2025

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

Share Price Total Shareholder Return

Nov

2007

Nov

2011

Nov

2013

Nov

2014

Nov

2015

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2016

Nov

2020

Nov

2012

Nov

2022

Nov

2017

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2021

Nov

2023

Nov

2024

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised

for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on

29 April 2024

»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin

shareholders in early May 2024

»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders

on 16 May 2024

»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the

NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted

down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash

dividends declared on the shares with a record date

during the period commencing on the date of allotment of

the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before

the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin

»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated

to it from the Board to invest according

to the Management Agreement

and other written policies. Marlin’s

portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds

Management Limited. Sam Dickie

(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),

and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty

(Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing the Marlin

portfolio. Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in

Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Andy

Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,

David McClatchy and Fiona

Oliver.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.