MLN – March 2025 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for February was -3.0%, while
the adjusted NAV return was -3.1%. This compared with our
global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was -1.4%.
Market Environment
There was a big shift from US stocks to Eurozone equities, with
the Europe STOXX 600 Index +3.3% compared to a -1.4%
decline for the S&P 500 Index. This marks one of Europe’s
strongest relative starts to the year since 2000.
This was a partial unwind of the sharp outperformance of US
equities over the last couple of years, but especially since Trump
was elected. It was also a response to the elevated policy
uncertainty coming out of the US and a more dovish European
Central Bank verses a more hawkish US Central Bank. The
European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis
points to 2.75% in late January (and again in early March as I
type), responding to a stagnating Eurozone economy. In contrast,
the US Federal Reserve maintained its key rate at 4.25%-4.50%,
pausing its cutting cycle that began in September. This decision
was influenced by robust economic growth and stubborn
inflation.
The sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks in late
January, triggered by increased competition from China, was
followed by a sell-off in broader tech stocks in February. The
market questioned the rising capex with uncertain return on that
capex. We have been taking some weight out of our large tech
holdings for the past few months.
Portfolio
Tencent (+19% in local currency) rallied alongside the wider
Chinese tech sector. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s release of
an AI model that performed on par with leading US AI models
ignited investor enthusiasm. Tencent is already benefiting from
AI-driven technology in its advertising business and is now
rolling out AI features into its WeChat app. Sentiment was
further boosted by a more supportive stance from the Chinese
government, with President Xi Jinping meeting tech leaders
during the month. This follows several years of intense regulatory
oversight on the private tech sector.
Mastercard (+4%) reported solid Q4 earnings at the end of
January which supported its share price through February. All
key metrics were stronger than expected, with cross-border and
US payment volumes being the highlights. Both cross-border
and US payments volumes accelerated growth from Q3 to Q4
and were stronger than expected. Additionally, quarter-to-date
metrics showed that the US growth acceleration has sustained
so far. Mastercard continue to see robust consumer spending
supported by high employment rates, solid wage growth, and
wealth effects for affluent consumers. Mastercard continues
to penetrate the global payments market as consumers are
increasingly using card payments over cash and checks for
traditional consumer-to-business payments, and is penetrating
other payment flows such as business-to-business.
Dexcom (+2%) reported quarterly earnings during the month.
They had pre-released results at an investor conference in
January so there were few surprises. Dexcom continues to
show progress in turning the business around following several
execution missteps in 2024 and has several tailwinds going
forward including commercial coverage for Type-2 non-insulin
users; the shift to a 15 day sensor (from 10 days) which will
boost profit margins; and the launch of the next-gen G8
continuous glucose monitor next year.
Alphabet (-17%) sold off during February on a weaker than
expected results from Google Cloud and an unexpected step
up in capex. Alphabet’s Search and YouTube businesses
were better than expected. Google Cloud reported the first
deceleration of growth in four quarters. Like peers Amazon and
Microsoft, Google Cloud is datacenter capacity constrained and
struggling to meet AI demand. As a result, Alphabet materially
increased its expected capex spending for 2025 to $75b from
$52b in 2024. With slowing Google Cloud revenue growth,
investors are questioning the future return on this large capex
investment. Alphabet continues to see good momentum with AI
Overviews which has been additive to existing Search volumes
with consumers searching more often and with new queries.
We have been reducing our weight in Alphabet for the past few
months.
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
March 2025
$
0.99
SHARE PRICE
as at 28 February 2025
WARRANT PRICE
$
0.01
DISCOUNT
1
3.2
%
MLN NAV
$
1.0 3
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 28 February 2025
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.98
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
219m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$217m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
Unitedhealth Group (-12%) fell as the US’s largest health
insurer faces scrutiny post the murder of one of its executives
in December and amongst increasing public dissatisfaction
with the US healthcare system. Reports that the DOJ and
senate are investigating US health insurance practices, coupled
with healthcare spending cuts proposed by the new Trump
administration drove negative sentiment on the sector. Health
insurance companies like UNH provide a critical role in the
complex and fragmented US healthcare system, but also
operate in a constantly evolving regulated environment.
Amazon (-11%) shares fell in February on the back of a
mixed quarterly results. Revenue in its key segments of
cloud, eCommerce and advertising came in slightly softer
than expected, but margins continue to exceed expectations,
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 28 February 2025
31
%
10
%
19
%
FINANCIALS
22
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 28 February 2025
5
%
WESTERN
EUROPE
79
%
NORTH
AMERICA
16
%
16
%
ASIA PACIFIC
HEALTH CARE
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
2
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
resulting in higher operating income than expected. Like
Alphabet and Microsoft, Amazon is also increasing its capex
spend in response to the AI demand they are seeing in its
cloud business, AWS. AWS currently has datacenter capacity
constraints due to AI demand and the company believes AWS
would have grown faster without these constraints. Margin
expansion remains impressive and is being driven by efficiency
gains on the logistics infrastructure it invested into during the
pandemic to accommodate growing eCommerce volumes.
3
FEBRUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO (in local currency) during the month
TENCENT
+19
%
AMAZON
-11
%
UNITED HEALTH
-12
%
ALPHABET
-13
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 28 February 2025
MICROSOFT
8
%
AMAZON
8
%
MASTERCARD
6
%
ASML HOLDINGS
6
%
FLOOR & DÉCOR
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 28 February 2025
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(0.2%)+9.8%+7.1%(1.2%)+9.2%
Adjusted NAV Return(3.1%)+2.5%+6.0%+6.0%+9.5%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (3.0%)+3.1%+9.2%+8.4%+12.6%
Benchmark Index^(1.4%)(0.0%)+16.3%+10.1%+12.0%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
SALESFORCE
-17
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 28 February 2025
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Nov
2023
Nov
2024
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on
29 April 2024
»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin
shareholders in early May 2024
»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 16 May 2024
»The new warrants (MLNWG) commence trading on the
NZX Main Board from 17 May 2024
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.04, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment of
the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before
the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 16 May 2025
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest according
to the Management Agreement
and other written policies. Marlin’s
portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds
Management Limited. Sam Dickie
(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),
and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty
(Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.