KFL - March 2025 Quarter Newsletter
The March quarter saw Kingfish deliver a gross performance return
of -7.1% and an adjusted NAV return of -6.8%, compared to the
-6.4% return of the S&P/NZX50G benchmark index. A tough quarter.
Global markets have been volatile with the US S&P 500 seeing a
-10% 'correction' during the quarter and Australia's ASX 200 almost
following suit. This includes concerns around the potential impact of
Trump’s tariffs on the global economy, which have intensified with
the announcements in early April.
While volatility sees portfolio values drop from time to time, this
is part and parcel of being invested in shares, and so we should
expect it every so often. We use these opportunities to actively
adjust the portfolio (as we did this quarter), putting more money
into opportunities where we think better value is emerging and
often funding that with cash or by selling down positions where
our expected reward-to-risk ratio has not improved. For instance, in
last month’s update we discussed how we have added electricity
company Mercury to the portfolio.
A backwards step for the NZ market during the
March quarter, led by some heavyweights
The poor performance of the New Zealand market was led by
company-specific dynamics for some of its largest companies.
Notably these included Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (-13%), Infratil
(-18%), Ryman (-37% to $2.76, and no longer in the Kingfish
portfolio), and Spark (-25%, not owned by Kingfish) which together
contributed the majority of the NZ market decline.
As discussed last month, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare saw its share
price slump with the company warning that it could face higher
costs following President Trump's tariff plans. We expect the
company will be able to mitigate the tariffs over time.
Infratil provided two key updates in relation to CDC Data Centres
during the quarter. Early in January, CDC also announced it has
completed contracting for 230MW of capacity by year end versus
expectations earlier in 2024 that this would reach 400MW. Looking
at the bigger picture, this rate of contracting is still much higher than
was anticipated a year ago, however it was disappointing to see
expectations for a higher level of contracting not met.
In February, Infratil announced an investment of A$216 million
into existing investment CDC Data Centres, increasing its stake by
1.6 percentage points to 49.8%, alongside fellow shareholder the
Future Fund which bought another 10.5% of CDC. The overall deal
was conducted between existing shareholders (Commonwealth
Superannuation Corporation, or 'CSC', selling to Infratil and the
Future Fund). CSC ran an external process to establish valuation,
but existing shareholders had pre-emptive rights allowing them
to purchase the shares on offer at the same price offered by third
parties. The transaction implies an equity value for CDC of A$13.7
billion, a 34% uplift on the prevailing valuation.
Despite this, Infratil’s share price declined after the deal was
announced. We attribute this to market concerns on CDC’s recent
delayed contract wins and skittish sentiment regarding datacentres
generally including concerns Microsoft is pulling back on demand.
During March, Infratil released a newsletter which noted its portfolio
company One NZ remains on track to meet the mid-point of its
earnings guidance range of $580-620 million (set in May 2024). This
is in stark contrast to heavyweight competitor Spark which made
the fourth downgrade to its current year earnings guidance, citing
"spending cuts and mobile fleet reductions across government
and businesses, changes in product mix, and aggressive price
competition in mobile". We note that mobile share tracking we follow
indicates One NZ (along with rival 2degrees) has progressively
been taking market share from Spark and has also moved more
proactively to position for a consumer slowdown.
During the quarter we saw several key Infratil people step up and
buy a significant number of shares on market with their own money,
which is the ultimate vote of confidence in the longer-term prospects
for Infratil and the value on offer. We also bought additional shares
during the period.
The quarter was not all bad news, the portfolio's companies as a
group delivered credible results in a difficult market environment,
particularly a2 Milk (+40%) and Vista (+22%).
Kingfish portfolio companies are outperforming
their competitors
Last month we detailed our decision to not participate in Ryman’s
$1 billion capital raising at $3.05 and fully exit the position in Ryman
during period (at a small premium to this price). The situation at
Ryman is in stark contrast to Summerset (-13%), which delivered
a strong 2024 result in February. Importantly the company also
provided an upbeat albeit cautious trading update for the first eight
weeks of 2025, citing "market conditions are stable with some early
signs of improvement" with the rate of contracting up around 30%.
The shadow cast by the situation at Ryman nonetheless weighed on
the Summerset share price, but this created an opportunity to add to
our position.
Like the divergence between One NZ and Spark, it is comforting
to see Summerset outexecuting its key competitor in a tough
market. We continue to see the same happening at other portfolio
companies including Vulcan Steel (+14% in the quarter) versus Steel
& Tube (-8%), Freightways versus NZ Post, and a2 Milk offshore
versus its competitors.
1
Share price discount to NAV (using the net asset value per share, after expense, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER
1 January 2025 – 31 March 2025
as at 31 March 2025
1
KFL NAV
$
1.35
$
1.28
Share Price
DISCOUNT
1
5.1
%
Matt Peek
Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
14 April 2025
2
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is
by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or
completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial
adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that
fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.
3 Months
3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(2.3%)(1.8%)+9.4%
Adjusted NAV Return(6.8%)+3.2%+8.4%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (7.1%)+4.6%+10.2%
S&P/NZX50G Index(6.4%)+0.4%+4.6%
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross
performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures
is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital
allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV value,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection,
before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price
performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to
shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment
plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant
expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total
shareholder return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-
GAAP measures are described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the
policy is available kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies.
LISTED COMPANIES% Holding
Auckland Intl Airport8.3%
Contact Energy4.0%
Delegat Group1.1%
EBOS Group7.9%
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare17.8%
Freightways3.8%
Infratil13.6%
Mainfreight9.6%
Mercury3.0%
Meridian Energy3.2%
Port of Tauranga3.4%
Summerset8.9%
The a2 Milk Company3.0%
Vista Group International7.7%
Vulcan Steel1.2%
Equity Total96.5%
New Zealand dollar cash3.5%
TOTAL100.0%
PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY
as at 31 March 2025
COMPANY NEWS
Dividend Paid 28 March 2025
A dividend of 2.92 cents per share was paid to Kingfish shareholders
on 28 March 2025 under the quarterly distribution policy. Interest
in Kingfish’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high with
39% of shareholders participating in the plan. Shares issued to
DRP participants are at a 3% discount to market price. If you would
like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar,
Computershare on (09) 488 8777.
PERFORMANCE
as at 31 March 2025
Kingfish Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand
Phone: +64 9 489 7094
Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz
If you would like to receive future
newsletters electronically please email
us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
IMPACTING THE PORTFOLIO
DURING THE QUARTER
a2 MILK
COMPANY
+40
%
VISTA
GROUP
+22
%
VULCAN
STEEL
+14
%
MAINFREIGHT
-16
%
INFRATIL
-18
%
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.