MLN - June 2025 Quarter Newsletter
1
A roller-coaster quarter, reminding us that the
impact of politics is transient
Marlin ended the June quarter with gross performance up
+6.0% and the adjusted NAV return was +5.1%, compared with
our global benchmark which was up +7.7%.
Global stock markets began the quarter in turmoil and ended
with a powerful recovery.
We often talk about how hard it is to predict the impact of
politics on stock markets. In the last three months the US
implemented sweeping tariffs across the globe; bombed
three nuclear sites in Iran resulting in a 20% spike in oil prices;
Republican’s proposed a government spending bill that would
add $2-$3 trillion to the US government deficit; US long-term
interest rates rose, driven by both tariff related inflationary fears
and excess US Government debt fears; and US GDP for the
March quarter was released, contracting 0.5%.
And after all that the S&P 500 stock index ended the quarter
+11% at all-time highs!
We used the April sell-off to reposition the portfolio: 1. Adding
to oversold tariff-impacted names Intuitive Surgical and Meta;
2. Upgrading the quality by buying Costco and Hermès, funded
by reducing weight in the lower quality Icon and Greggs; and 3.
Trimming defensives United Health and Boston Scientific to add
to Amazon, KKR and Nvidia.
Portfolio update
Nvidia (+46%) led performance. The stock was pressured
in April by trade war fears, export restrictions to China, and
concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. We added
significantly during the dip. Nvidia beat earnings, Trump eased
trade tensions, and sovereign demand is expected to offset lost
China revenue. Enthusiasm for AI agents—tools that enhance
corporate workflows—helped dispel fears of an AI hype cycle.
Netflix (+44%) and Microsoft (+33%) emerged as relative tariff
winners early in the quarter as their service-based products are
not impacted by US tariffs. Netflix’s subscriber growth continues
to beat expectations as it continues to roll-out new subscription
tiers to appeal to a wider range of customers. Microsoft’s Azure,
its cloud computing platform, continues to grow ahead of
expectations at 35%.
Dexcom (+28%) reported US sales which were well ahead
of expectations. The company also received FDA approval
for its 15-day sensors. Longer lasting sensors means fewer
sensor changes, lower cost of goods sold, and higher margins.
Dexcom’s ability to improve health outcomes (lower the rate
of diabetes) and reduce costs for the healthcare system is
becoming increasingly important with greater scrutiny on rising
healthcare costs globally.
ASML (+21%) benefitted from ongoing investment in AI, which
is fuelling demand for AI-related semiconductor chips. TSMC,
the world’s leading semiconductor manufacturer and ASML’s
largest customer, reported a 40% increase in revenue last
month, primarily due to strong demand for AI accelerators. This
surge in demand for advanced chips supports further orders for
ASML’s cutting-edge lithography equipment.
Floor & Décor (-6%) was weak given its exposure to tariffs
(it imports around 50% of its products) plus the knock-on
effect of disruptive tariffs to demand. The company reduced
its store roll-out target for the year given this uncertainty. It has
a diverse global supply chain which gives it the flexibility to
absorb proposed tariff impacts and puts it in a better position
than competitors. Floor & Décor has already seen competitors
increase prices by up to 50%, which could potentially widen
Floor & Décor’s price gap and enhance its value proposition.
UnitedHealth (-40%) was a defensive haven during the tariff
sell-off, outperforming the S&P by 20% at one point. We used
that strength to continue to reduce our position in the company.
In May, a rare earnings miss caused a 30% share price decline,
shaking investors’ confidence in this historically stable business.
US health insurers have faced challenges as reimbursement
pressure in government programs and rising healthcare costs
squeezed profit margins. We have a very small position and are
reviewing our thesis.
Icon (-17%) and its clinical research peers continue to be
impacted by reduced R&D spending from pharma and biotech
clients post-COVID. Recovery was expected this year, but high
interest rates, macro uncertainty, and unclear regulatory direction
have delayed investment. We had been reducing our position
ahead of earnings due to these concerns.
New portfolio additions in the quarter
Costco is a leading global warehouse club, offering high-quality
products in bulk at low prices. The company is the third largest
retailer in the world by revenue and operates more than 900
warehouses. Costco serves 137 million members by providing
a wide range of goods—from groceries and electronics to
household items. Costco’s ability to leverage its scale to
consistently deliver the lowest prices creates a strong moat.
This, combined with its customer-centric culture has led to sales
per square foot double that of its nearest competitor. Costco’s
has substantial opportunity to expand its warehouse footprint
both in the U.S. and internationally.
¹
Share price discount to NAV (using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
as at 30 June 2025
1 April 2025 – 30 June 2025
MLN NAVDISCOUNT
1
$
0.954.0
%$
0.91
Share Price
QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER
PERFORMANCE
as at 30 June 2025
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity brief. The information
and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute
professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter
contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
Headquarters Company
%
Holding
China
Tencent Holdings3.9%
France
Hermes International3.9%
Ireland
Icon1.9%
United Kingdom
Greggs Plc2.5%
United States
Alphabet5.6%
Amazon.Com7.7%
ASML Holding NV5.0%
Boston Scientific4.0%
Costco Wholesale Corp1.0%
Danaher Corporation5.1%
Dexcom Inc4.5%
Edwards Lifesciences Corp.2.9%
Floor & Décor Holdings4.6%
Gartner Inc4.0%
Intuitive Surgical Inc5.6%
KKR & Co Inc1.1%
Mastercard6.0%
Meta Platforms Inc4.1%
Microsoft6.9%
MSCI Inc2.4%
Netflix3.2%
Nvidia Corp2.7%
salesforce.com3.4%
Tradeweb Markets Inc1.0%
UnitedHealth Group Inc1.2%
Zoetis Inc2.7%
Equity Total96.9%
New Zealand dollar cash0.4%
Total foreign cash1.0%
Cash Total1.4%
Forward Foreign Exchange1.7%
TOTAL100.0%
PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS
SUMMARY
as at 30 June 2025
COMPANY NEWS
If you would like to receive future
newsletters electronically please email us
at enquire@marlin.co.nz
Dividend Paid 27 June 2025
A dividend of 1.91 cents per share was paid to Marlin
shareholders on 27 June 2025, under the quarterly distribution
policy. Interest in Marlin’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)
remains high with 38% of shareholders participating in the plan.
Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount to
market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please
contact our share registrar, Computershare on 09 488 8777.
3 Months
3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+4.4%+1.3%+7.3%
Adjusted NAV Return +5.1%+10.9%+7.3%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return+6.0%+13.7%+10.1%
Benchmark Index¹+7.7%+16.4%+13.7%
1
Benchmark index : S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (hedged 50% to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance
return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital
allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV value,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and
currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price
performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to
shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan,
and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder
return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP measures are
described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at
marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE
QUARTER IN LOCAL CURRENCY
NVIDIA
+46
%
NETFLIX
+44
%
KKR & CO
+41
%
MICROSOFT
+33
%
UNITEDHEALTH
-40
%
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Ltd
14 July 2025
KKR is a leading alternative asset manager benefitting from
the rising allocations to alternative assets by pension funds,
sovereign wealth funds and high-net-worth individuals. KKR
has a wide moat given its strong track record of returns and the
stickiness of assets under management. KKR’s brand and track
record helps with fundraising and attracting investment talent.
Tradeweb operates electronic marketplaces for fixed income
and equities, connecting over 2,800 clients. Its scale, real-
time pricing, and superior liquidity have allowed it to take
market share from competitors for the last 7+ years through
implementing innovative trading protocols. The adoption of
electronic trading will continue to be a tailwind.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.