Infratil Independent Valuation Update - 30 June 2025
FOR THE QUARTER ENDED 30 JUNE 2025
INFRATIL
INDEPENDENT
VALUATION UPDATE
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Anumber of Infratil's investments have independentvaluations completedas at30 June,withthoseresults summarised below.
The valuations for Longroad Energy, Galileo, Mint Renewables and Qscan below reflect the midpoint of the 30 June independent valuations.
The CDC valuation and key assumptions were released on 4 July 2025.
Key valuation methodologies underpinning the three new independent valuations are summarised on the following pages and remain
consistent with the 31 March 2025 valuations
1
.
The 30 June 2025 independent valuation of Infratil’s investment in Longroad Energy shows a US$27 million decline in the valuation over the
three months since the 31 March 2025 valuation. This implies that Infratil’s 37.7% share is now valued at US$1,182 million, down from
US$1,209 million at the end of March 2025.
–The decline in valuation is primarily driven by an increase in discount rates, reflecting both higher base rates and adjustments by the
independent valuer to account for increased uncertainty arising from tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill. These factors outweighed the
positive impact of projects reaching operation (Sun Streams 4 — 677MW and Serrano — 434MW) and the acquisition of two late-stage
development projects.
The 30 June 2025 independent valuation of Infratil's investment in Galileo shows a €4 million decline in the valuation over the three months
since the 31 March 2025 valuation. This implies that Infratil’s 38.0% share is now valued at between €129.2 million and €207.7 million (with a
midpoint of €168.4 million), reduced from €143.7 million to €201.1 million (with a midpoint of €172.4 million) at the end of March 2025.
–The decrease in valuation is primarily due to an increase in the discount applied to earlier-stage development assets. Under the
transaction multiples methodology, the value of a project is determined by applying a multiple and discounting that multiple to reflect
the stage of development. The increase in the discount applied was a result of softening demand for early stage development projects.
This impact was partially offset by shareholder capital injections of €26.5 million (Infratil’s share: €10.1 million) during the period, and by
progress made on certain projects within Galileo’s development pipeline.
Infratil Independent Valuation Update- 30 June 2025
1. Valuation methodologies and assumptions for 30 March 2025 included here: Infratil FY25 Full Year Results Presentation (nzx.com)
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The 30 June 2025 independent valuation of Infratil’s investment in Qscan shows a A$12 million increase in the valuation over the three
months since the 31 March 2025 valuation. This implies that Infratil’s 57.2% investment in Qscan is now valued at between A$406 million to
A$449 million (with a midpoint of A$426 million), up from A$394 million to A$436 million (with a midpoint of A$414 million) at the end of
March 2025.
–The increase in valuation since March is primarily driven by the cash flow roll-forward (reflecting the benefit of larger future cash flows
now being closer in time), along with the contribution from the acquisition of two clinics. This was partially offset by minor adjustments to
operating assumptions for certain hospital contracts.
Infratil Independent Valuation Update- 30 June 2025
Portfolio Companies (NZ$ Millions)30 June 202531 March 2025Movement
Longroad Energy1,953.8 2,111.9 (158.1)
Galileo326.6 326.0 0.6
Mint Renewables30.322.87.5
Qscan Group460.2 454.5 5.7
1. Valuation methodologies and assumptions for 30 March 2025 included here: Infratil FY25 Full Year Results Presentation (nzx.com)
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Primary valuation methodology: DCF using FCFE. Valuation
approach consists of:
–A top-down approach (aggregate enterprise cashflows,
including a terminal value); and
–Bottom-up valuation approach (DCF using FCFE for operating,
under-construction, and near-term development projects
2
, and
a multiples approach for long-term development pipeline),
–Platform derived from the difference between top down and
bottom-up valuations
Forecast period: Top down: 30Y, Bottom up: 40Y (2065)
Enterprise value
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: US$6,278m (March 25: US$6,964m)
Equity value
1
: US$3,153m (March 25: US$3,228m)
Net debt: US$3,126m (inclusive of project financing, tax equity,
bridge loans, and parent entity debt)
Risk free rate: 4.8% (March 25: 4.6%)
Asset beta: top down – 1.06 (March 25: 0.86)
Cost of equity: 15.6% top-down, 9.7% operating assets, 10.0%
under construction, 10.2% near-term projects plus milestone
discounts, 17.8% long-term pipeline plus milestone discounts
(March 25: 13.9%, 9.6%, 9.7%, 10.2%, 16.6%)
Terminal growth rate: 3.0% (top-down, year 30) (March 25: 2.5%)
Operating assets: 4,232MW
Near-term (3 years) development pipeline: 4,616MW
Long-term development pipeline (5 years): 25,832MW
Multiple for long-term development projects: US$125/kW (March
25: US$140/kW)
Platform value assessed around ~10% of total enterprise value
Longroad (37.7%) – US$1,181m (NZ$1,954m)
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Galileo (38.0%) – €168.4m (NZ$326.6m)
Primary valuation methodology: Transaction multiples for
more advanced projects, cost for entry-stage projects, and
DCF used for a single minor project
Equity value: €443.2m (March 25: €453.8m)
Risk free rate: n/a
Asset beta: n/a
Multiples for development projects that are ‘ready to build’
range from €50-400k/MW depending on country and
technology type (i.e. solar, wind, or standalone battery storage)
The valuer assigns a discount (~10-95%) to the multiple that it
considers appropriate as the project moves towards ‘ready to
build’ stage. For projects that are early to mid-stage of the
development lifecycle, only a small percentage of the ‘ready to
build’ value is captured with the majority of value being
recognised as projects get close to ‘ready to build’ stage. The
valuer also makes the distinction between contracted and
uncontracted profiles once a project reaches Ready-to-Build,
only applying 100% of the value to the contracted project
Platform premium of ~1% applied
Development pipeline: 16.1GW, of which ~14GW valued
under the transaction approach, 3MW under DCF and the
remaining ~2GW under cost
Qscan (57.2%) – A$426.2m (NZ$460.2m)
Primary valuation methodology: DCF using FCFE (with a
cross check to comparable companies and precedent
transactions)
Forecast period: 10 years (2035)
Enterprise value: A$1,037.8m (March 25: A$1,007.5m)
Equity value: A$745.2m (March 25: A$724.1m)
Net debt: A$292.7m (March 25: A$283.4m)
Risk free rate: 4.00%
Asset beta: 0.775
Cost of equity: 13.20%
Terminal growth rate: 3.5%
Independent valuation summary
FX Rates: NZD/US: 0.6047 NZD/EUR: 0.5157 NZD/AUD: 0.9262 NZD/GBP: 0.4410
1. Longroad’s enterprise and equity value adjusted for committed but uncalled capital included in the independent valuation
Valuation methodology
Key valuation assumptions
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.