MLN – September 2025 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for August was +1.0%, while the
adjusted NAV return was +0.8%. This compared with our global
benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50%
hedged to NZD), which was up +3.4%.
Market Backdrop
August saw positive global equity returns. Japan was the standout
market up 4.5% on positive tariff news and a weaker yen, with
the US up 2% and Europe and the UK up 1.2%. There was plenty
for investors to focus on this month, with the ongoing earnings
reporting season, and Jackson Hole – the Federal Reserve’s
annual get-together for central bankers. Powell suggested the
balance of economic risks had shifted following a subdued July
inflation release and downward revisions in the latest employment
report. Investors are now pricing in a higher likelihood of a Fed cut
in September.
98% of US companies have now reported, with revenue and
earnings mostly ahead of expectations. Despite tariff and inflation
concerns, analysts have been increasing forward looking earnings
estimates, with technology and energy the biggest gainers.
Company views are slightly more conservative – of those that gave
revenue guidance for the third quarter, just over half increased
guidance; with the rest decreasing.
Nvidia was one of the most anticipated results, which was a
slight disappointment versus high expectations, despite a ninth
straight quarter of 50% year-on-year revenue growth. While
we have a positive long-term view on AI, we are increasingly
concerned around the gap between what is being spent building
AI datacentres and the growth in revenue generating use cases.
With many stocks reaching all-time highs on elevated AI buzz, we
took the opportunity to reduce the weight in some of the AI related
names in the portfolio.
Portfolio Commentary
AI was a common thread underpinning both our best and worst
performing stocks over the month.
Alphabet (+11%) continued its strong performance post July’s
earnings report. Alphabet continues to prove the critics of its AI
capabilities wrong. During the month it was reported that Apple is
in early discussions to integrate Google Gemini into a revamped
Siri, and Alphabet also won a $10 billion cloud contract from
Meta, adding to its Open AI contract win in June. We reduced our
position during the month following the recent outperformance.
Tencent (+9%) reported another good earnings period during
the month, as AI continues to drive performance in advertising
and improve player experience in the gaming segment. Tencent’s
short-video product, Video Accounts grew 50% as AI content and
algorithms drove higher engagement from users; and a higher
return on ad spend for its customers. The Games business was
again a standout performer driven by both new game launches,
and its long-standing evergreen titles. The company believes that
AI will help gaming growth as it boosts the speed and scale of
content production across its portfolio of major games.
ASML (+7%) benefited from some positive news from two of its
large customers. Given the complexity of manufacturing advanced
semiconductor chips, there are only a handful of customers
who require ASML’s advanced lithography tools. Two of these
customers Intel and Samsung have been struggling to keep up
with industry leader TSMC, and there had been fears that one or
both companies might stop manufacturing advanced chips, which
would be negative for ASML. With Samsung announcing a deal
to manufacture Tesla’s AI chips; and the US Government taking a
10% stake in Intel; there is renewed hope that both companies will
remain in the race to develop new semiconductor chips.
Gartner (-26%) was the worst performer for the month. Gartner’s
negative earnings result elevated fears that AI is disrupting
the research and consulting industry, despite management’s
commentary that it was more macro-driven and that customers
were not citing AI as a reason for reducing spend. We had
reduced a third of our position coming into results as we felt the
AI risks had heightened. We now hold it at a very small weight
post the sell-off. While we acknowledge the AI risks, we do think
Gartner’s proprietary data and independence provides some
defence, and the business is not standing still, with Gartner
recently launching its own AI search product “AskGartner”.
Dexcom (-7%) continues to execute well after several self-
enforced missteps last year. Dexcom reported over 20% growth
in continuous-glucose monitors (CGMs) sold in the quarter,
gaining market share outside of its core US market and getting
early traction in the Type 2 non-insulin diabetic market (which is
the largest and most underpenetrated population of diabetics).
Long-time CEO Kevin Sayer announced his retirement, with Chief
Operating Officer Jake Leach taking the reins next year. With over
twenty years’ experience at Dexcom across a range of roles, we
believe the company is in capable hands under Jack. Despite
what we considered positive results, the market was disappointed
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
September 2025
as at 31 August 2025
SHARE PRICE
$
1.01
PREMIUM
1
5.8
%
MLN NAV
$
0.9 5
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 August 2025
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.94
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
224m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$226m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
by the size of the full year guidance raise given the strong first half
to the year, and coupled with the CEO announcement, the stock
was sold off post earnings, and we used the sell-off to buy shares.
Amazon (-2%). Unlike Google, Amazon disappointed investors
with its cloud and AI growth. Following accelerated growth at
competitors Azure and Google Cloud, expectations we high
for AWS cloud coming into earnings. But the growth rate only
marginally increased to 17.5% - still impressive for a business
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 August 2025
31
%
10
%
17
%
FINANCIALS
24
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 August 2025
8
%
WESTERN
EUROPE
78
%
NORTH
AMERICA
10
%
14
%
ASIA PACIFIC
3
%
HEALTH CARE
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
3
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
that generated $100b of revenue last year, but below market
expectations. The retail business was a more positive story.
Revenue growth reaccelerated after a couple subdued quarters,
but the margins were the real standout with both the North
America (+1.9%) and International (+3.2%) businesses seeing
margins expand.
INDUSTRIAL
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
CONSUMER
STAPLES
2
%
3
AUGUST’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO during the month in local currency
UNITED HEALTH
+24
%
ALPHABET
+11
%
TENCENT HOLDINGS
+9
%
GARTNER
-11
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 August 2025
AMAZON
7
%
MASTERCARD
6
%
MICROSOFT
6
%
DANAHER
CORPORATION
5
%
INTUITIVE SURGICAL
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 22 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 August 2025
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+4.1%+10.9%+14.0%+5.5%+5.0%
Adjusted NAV Return+0.8%+2.5%+3.8%+9.1%+5.5%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +1.0%+3.4%+6.5%+12.0%+8.0%
Benchmark Index^+3.4%+10.2%+17.7%+15.6%+12.7%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
The performance of the Benchmark Index for the May Update, June Update, and June Newsletter were overstated for certain periods. This has
been corrected in the versions of those documents available on Marlin Global Limited’s website.
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
TRADEWEB MARKETS
-26
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 August 2025
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Nov
2023
Nov
2024
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Warrants put Marlin in a better position to grow further,
operate efficiently, and pursue other capital structure
initiatives as appropriate
»A warrant is the right, not the obligation, to purchase an
ordinary share in Marlin at a fixed price on a fixed date
»There are currently no Marlin warrants on issue
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest according
to the Management Agreement
and other written policies. Marlin’s
portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds
Management Limited. Sam Dickie
(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),
and Daniel Moser and Charles Barty
(Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.