MLN - December 2025 Quarter Newsletter
1
A tough year, well positioned for the future.
Marlin ended the December quarter with gross performance up
+2.6% and the adjusted NAV return was +1.9%. This compared
with our global benchmark S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap
Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was up +3.5%.
Global stock markets finished with a solid but more muted
December quarter (+3%) compared to the previous nine months
(+19%). The US market underperformed non-US markets for both
the quarter and the year. We have lowered our weighting to US
stocks and continue to drive high quality diversification across
Marlin’s now 29 holdings.
2025 was a tough year for the portfolio, notwithstanding the better
performance in the latter part of the quarter. A key drag for the year
was the most extreme underperformance of quality or blue-chip
companies (our style) vs riskier and in some cases unprofitable
companies in 30 years. We have not invested your capital in these
higher risk companies. We don’t think it’s prudent.
STEEPP has worked well over Marlin’s 18-year history. After the
worst relative stretch in 30 years, blue-chip or quality companies
now look attractive versus the broader market, so we are excited
about the opportunities ahead.
Portfolio update
Alphabet (+29%) continued its recent performance as it is
increasingly seen as a leader in the AI race, with dominant positions
across the whole AI value chain. During the quarter, Google
launched Gemini 3, its latest artificial intelligence model, to high
acclaim – with Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff singing its praises. This
model was trained using Google’s internal semiconductor chips
(or TPUs), creating a possible alternative to Nvidia GPUs in some
use cases. And with companies including Meta and Anthropic both
signing deals to use Google’s TPUs this creates a further revenue
tailwind for the business. That said, we appreciate that the AI
market is a dynamic and fast-moving space and have reduced our
position size given the outperformance.
Intuitive Surgical (+27%) and Danaher (+16%) reminded us how
quickly sentiment on stocks can change, even if the underlying
earnings power of the business has not. They had been among
our bigger drags on performance earlier in the year. And both
companies have done nothing other than continue to execute well
against poor sentiment and/or a tough macro backdrop. ISRG had
been weak due to concerns over hospital spending and procedure
growth, but strong earnings results put those concerns to rest.
Procedure volumes are still growing 17% per annum, twenty-
six years after the first Intuitive surgical robot was sold in 1999,
highlighting the large growth runway for surgical robotics. DHR had
been weak because its big pharma customers had been under
pressure to cut costs. In short, nothing had structurally changed
around the key pillars of the moat, the growth runway or the people
so we used the weakness earlier in the year to add to the positions.
Old Dominion Freight Line (+12%) was driven by a tightening
trucking market. The combination of fewer drivers (due to new
limits on foreign drivers), lower supply of new trucks, and increased
bankruptcies after an exceptionally long trucking recession is
constraining supply. We haven’t yet seen a rebound in demand,
but the sharp move in the stock on only a slight tightening in supply
highlights how poor the sentiment in the trucking sector has been.
Zoetis (-14%) faced a combination of new product concerns,
competitive headwinds and slower than expected vet visits for the
industry. While two competitor product launches in the last twelve
months have been a headwind, actual market share losses have
been limited. Zoetis’s new flagship pain drug Librela is facing slower-
than-expected growth given social media concerns around safety
(despite positive data from real-world outcomes). While we reduced
our position size slightly given the worse than expected headwinds,
the steady pipeline of Zoetis own new drug launches gives us
confidence growth will accelerate in the medium term.
Floor & Décor (-17%) fell as its long running CEO Tom Taylor
stepped down. We have cut our position size as the incoming CEO
Brad Paulsen is a relatively unknown entity. The flooring market
has been in a 2–3-year severe recession and through that period
FND has continued to take market share from its competitors and
will emerge stronger when the cycle turns. Like ODFL, ISRG, DHR
and GOOGL, when sentiment is this bearish, it doesn’t take much
improvement for these stocks to move — FND is already up 20% in
the first few days of 2026 as mortgage rates continue to fall and the
market is becoming less bearish about the US flooring market.
Netflix (-22%) was our worst performing position in the quarter. The
market is concerned Netflix will overpay for Warner Bros Discovery
(WBD) as it goes head-to-head with Paramount Skydance to
buy the assets. The combination of NFLX’s strong balance sheet,
unparalleled distribution reach for WBD’s quality content and ability
to remove costs from the combined entity is attractive. This, along
with the fact we had cut the position size to a minimum at higher
prices earlier in the year, gave us the opportunity to begin rebuilding
the NFLX position in December.
New portfolio additions in the quarter
Equifax is one of the three leading credit bureaus in the US and
globally. It collects data from multiple sources to form a database
of individual consumers that businesses like banks use to make
better lending decisions; or Governments and employers use to run
automated background and income verification checks. Equifax
continues to see increased penetration of these data services
from customers. Several of Equifax’s key end markets including
mortgages and employee verifications are currently depressed,
which we anticipate will improve over the next few years.
MercadoLibre is the largest e-commerce player in Latin America,
while also offering payments solutions for retailers and credit for
consumers and business via its fast-growing fintech business. It is
taking market share off incumbents in e-commerce given its faster
¹
Share price discount to NAV (using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
as at 31 December 2025
1 October 2025 – 31 December 2025
MLN NAVDISCOUNT
1
$
0.940.3
%$
0.94
Share Price
QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER
PERFORMANCE
as at 31 December 2025
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity brief. The information
and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute
professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter
contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
Headquarters Company
%
Holding
China
Tencent Holdings3.8%
France
Hermes International3.4%
Ireland
Icon4.0%
United Kingdom
Greggs Plc1.9%
United States
Alphabet3.9%
Amazon.Com7.0%
ASML Holding NV2.1%
Boston Scientific1.9%
Costco Wholesale Corp1.5%
Danaher Corporation5.0%
Dexcom Inc4.4%
Edwards Lifesciences Corp.3.5%
Equifax Inc1.5%
Floor & Décor Holdings2.9%
Gartner Inc2.1%
Intuitive Surgical Inc3.4%
KKR & Co Inc1.1%
Mastercard5.5%
MercadoLibre Inc0.5%
Meta Platforms Inc5.7%
Microsoft6.9%
MSCI Inc3.5%
Netflix2.9%
Nvidia Corp4.1%
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc4.6%
salesforce.com4.0%
Tradeweb Markets Inc2.0%
Uber Technologies Inc0.5%
Zoetis Inc3.9%
Equity Total97.5%
New Zealand dollar cash0.4%
Total foreign cash2.0%
Cash Total2.4%
Forward Foreign Exchange0.1%
TOTAL100.0%
PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS
SUMMARY
as at 31 December 2025
COMPANY NEWS
If you would like to receive future
newsletters electronically please email us
at enquire@marlin.co.nz
Dividend Paid 19 December 2025
A dividend of 1.89 cents per share was paid to Marlin
shareholders on 19 December 2025, under the quarterly
distribution policy. Interest in Marlin’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP) remains high with 38% of shareholders participating in the
plan. Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount to
market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please
contact our share registrar, Computershare on 09 488 8777.
3 Months
3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+1.1%+9.9%+1.3%
Adjusted NAV Return +1.9%+14.5%+4.8%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return+2.6%+17.6%+7.2%
Benchmark Index¹+3.5%+19.4%+12.0%
1
Benchmark index : S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (hedged 50% to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance
return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital
allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV value,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and
currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price
performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to
shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan,
and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder
return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP measures are
described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at
marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE
QUARTER IN LOCAL CURRENCY
ALPHABET
+29
%
INTUITIVE
SURGICAL
+27
%
DANAHER
CORP
+16
%
FLOOR &
DÉCOR
-17
%
NETFLIX
-22
%
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Ltd
15 January 2026
shipping and lower product prices, underpinned by the largest
distribution centre network. It leverages its moat in the e-commerce
business to acquire under-served customers efficiently in the fintech
business. This strong competitive position, combined with a long
growth runway (given ecommerce and banking penetration in Latin
America lag other developed markets) makes MercadoLibre an
attractive investment.
Uber is the dominant ride-share player globally, operating in over 70
countries with 189 million customers. Its scale and self-reinforcing
network effects (more riders -> more drivers -> more riders)
underpin its moat. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) pose both a risk and
an opportunity for Uber. We initiated a position in late December
after a 20% fall from highs due to concerns that AV companies
like Tesla and Waymo will reduce reliance on Uber’s demand
aggregation platform. We think AVs will be a fragmented market
and AV fleet owners and AV car manufacturers will require Uber’s
dominant platform to drive volume.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.