Infratil Independent Valuation Update - 31 December 2025
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3 March 2026
Infratil Independent Valuation Update – 31 December 2025
Attached is an update on the independent valuations completed for three of Infratil’s portfolio
companies as at 31 December 2025.
Using the midpoint of each valuation, this update shows the following movements in Infratil’s
investments over the last quarter:
• Longroad Energy - a US$3 million decrease
• Galileo - a €6.8 million decrease
• Mint – a NZ$3 million increase.
The valuation methodologies remain consistent with the prior period valuations and key
movements for each company are summarised in the attachment.
A CDC valuation was previously released on 6 January 2026.
Enquiries should be directed to:
Brett Jackson
Infratil Investor Relations Director
Email: brett.jackson@infratil.com
Authorised for release by:
Andrew Carroll
Infratil Chief Financial Officer
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INFRATIL INDEPENDENT
VALUATION UPDATE
FOR THE QUARTER ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2025
1
Independentvaluations were completed for four of Infratil’s portfolio companies as at31 December. The CDC valuation was previously released on 6
January 2026
. The table below shows three company updates with the 31 December amounts reflecting the midpoint of the latest valuations. The
valuation methodologies remain consistent with the prior period valuations
1
and key movements for the company valuations are summarised below.
Longroad Energy: Infratil’s 37.7% share is now valued at US$1,312 million, representing a US$3 million decrease in the valuation over the three
months since the 30 September 2025 valuation.
–The decrease in valuation was primarily driven by higher discount rates and a modest reduction in the assumed development margin for the
long-term pipeline, from US$145/kW to US$140/kW. These impacts were partially offset by the progression of Project Zeta (175MW) into the
‘under construction’ phase and increase in long-term pipeline GW.
–The increase in discount rates reflects a higher risk free rate and an increase in the market risk premium due to increased uncertainty in comparable
companies which was partially offset by a reduction in Longroad's specific risk premium due to its strong relative position amongst its peers,
particularly in relation to Longroad’s management of tariff risk and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). While regulatory risk in the sector
remains, Longroad has mitigated a portion of this uncertainty through the safe harbouring of more than 6GW of projects, supported by increased
clarity following the release of Treasury guidance on the OBBBA.
Infratil Independent Valuation Update- 31 December 2025
1. Valuation methodologies and assumptions for 30 September 2025 included here: Infratil Independent Valuation Update – 30 September 2025
Portfolio Companies (NZ$ Millions) 31 Dec 202530 Sep 2025Movement
Longroad Energy 2,263.7 2,273.3 (9.6)
Galileo 330.1 344.0 (13.9)
Mint Renewables 39.0 35.4 3.6
2
Galileo: Infratil’s 38.0% share is now valued at €162.8 million, representing a €6.8 million decrease in the valuation over the three months since the 30
September 2025 valuation.
–The decrease in valuation during the quarter was driven by a number of factors including:
A write-off/down of 1.3GW of pipeline projects across Spain and Sweden, and
A reduction in Ready-to-Build (RtB) multiples for solar PV projects in 5 geographies as well as a reduction in the RtB multiple for UK onshore
wind reflecting latest market dynamics and precedent transaction data.
–These decreases were partially offset by a continued progression of the pipeline through the development lifecycle and the addition of new
projects valued under the multiple approach for the first time (previously held at cost).
Infratil Independent Valuation Update- 31 December 2025
3
Primary valuation methodology: DCF using FCFE. Valuation
approach consists of:
–A top-down approach (aggregate enterprise cashflows,
including a terminal value); and
–Bottom-up valuation approach (DCF using FCFE for operating,
under-construction, and near-term development projects
2
, and
a multiples approach for long-term development pipeline),
–Platform derived from the difference between top down and
bottom-up valuations
Forecast period: Top down: 30Y, Bottom up: 40Y
Enterprise value
1
: US$7,555m (Sept 25: US$7,208m)
Equity value
1
: US$3,495m (Sept 25: US$3,501m)
Net debt: US$4,060m (inclusive of project financing, tax equity,
bridge loans, and parent entity debt)
Risk free rate: 4.8% (Sept 25: 4.7%)
Asset beta: top down – 1.05 (Sept 25: 0.96)
Cost of equity: 14.3% top-down, 10.2% operating assets, 10.4%
under construction, 10.7% near-term projects plus milestone
discounts, 18.3% long-term pipeline plus milestone discounts
(Sept 25: 14.3%, 9.6%, 9.9%, 10.2%, 17.7%)
Terminal growth rate: 3.0% (top-down) (Sept 25: 3.0%)
Operating assets
2
: 5,303MW (Sept 25: 5,128MW)
Near-term (3 years) dev pipeline: 3,532MW (Sept 25: 3,706MW)
Long-term development pipeline (5 years): 25.8GW (Sept 25:
24.1GW)
Multiple for long-term development projects: US$140/kW (Sept
25: US$145/kW)
Platform value assessed around ~13% of total enterprise value
Longroad (37.7%) – US$1,312m (NZ$2,264m)
1
Galileo (38.0%) – €163m (NZ$330m)
Primary valuation methodology: Transaction multiples for
more advanced projects, cost for entry-stage projects, and
DCF used for 8MW of projects (out of 16GW total pipeline)
Equity value: €428.4m (Sept 25: €446.3m)
Risk free rate: n/a
Asset beta: n/a
Multiples for development projects that are ‘ready to build’
range from €50-375k/MW depending on country and
technology type (i.e. solar, onshore wind, offshore wind, or
standalone battery storage) (Sept 25: €50-400k/MW)
The valuer assigns a discount (~10-95%) to the multiple that it
considers appropriate as the project moves towards ‘ready to
build’ stage. For projects that are early to late-stage of the
development lifecycle, only a percentage of the ‘ready to build’
value is captured with the majority of value being recognised
as projects get close to ‘ready to build’ stage. The valuer also
makes the distinction between contracted and uncontracted
profiles once a project reaches Ready-to-Build, only applying
100% of the value to the contracted project
No Platform premium applied (Sept 25: 1%)
Development pipeline: 16.3GW, of which ~14GW valued
under the transaction approach, 8MW under DCF and the
remaining ~2GW under cost (Sept 25: 16.1GW)
FX Rates: NZD/US: 0.5797 NZD/EUR: 0.4932 NZD/AUD: 0.8653 NZD/GBP: 0.4304
1. Longroad’s enterprise and equity value adjusted for committed but uncalled capital included in the independent valuation
2. Longroad’s operating assets include all operating and under construction projects
Valuation methodology
Key valuation assumptions
Infratil Independent Valuation Summary- 31 December 2025
Mint (73.0%) – A$33.8 (NZ$39.0m)
Primary valuation methodology: Adjusted Net Asset Value
(NAV) approach capturing the added value of Mint’s
development efforts / expenses using the cost approach.
Additionally, cross-checks with market multiples with
comparable transaction and market data are performed.
Equity value: A$46.3m (Sept 25: A$42.6m)
Risk free rate: n/a
Asset beta: n/a
Cross-check transaction multiples for ‘very early’ stage
development projects of A$2.0k - $12.5k/MW, with ‘early’
stage projects at A$8.6k - $71.3k/MW, and ‘Mid” stage projects
range of A$30.0k - $151.1k/MW.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.