MLN – March 2026 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for February was -4.1%, while
the adjusted NAV return was -3.9%. This compared with our
global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was +2.9%.
Market Environment
Global equity markets rose 0.6% in February, with Europe +3.7%
and Japan +10.4%, as performance continued to broaden beyond
the US. The US S&P 500 fell -0.9%, despite a constructive US
earnings season.
While global stock markets have appeared calm on the surface
(notwithstanding the pickup in volatility in the last few days),
individual stocks and sectors are experiencing considerable
volatility. The quality and growth styles that underpin our STEEPP
investment process are currently facing their most significant
headwinds in over a quarter-century. High-quality companies
(those with robust balance sheets and consistent profitability)
have underperformed higher risk or lower-quality stocks (often
characterized by high debt or lack of earnings) by 13% year-to-
date. This follows a staggering 35% relative decline from the highs
of early last year.
Growth stocks (our style) also underperformed value
stocks by nearly 5% in February, following a similar level of
underperformance in January. Leadership has shifted toward
highly cyclical and capital-intensive sectors such as energy
(+23%), materials (+15%), and utilities (+12%). Investors are
betting on a big cyclical recovery in the US, driven by stimulative
fiscal policy, and they are chasing cheaper, lower quality, more
indebted companies. We typically avoid these sectors as they
often face structural headwinds—including commoditized pricing
and heightened competitive intensity—that fail to meet our
rigorous STEEPP criteria for sustainable, high-quality growth.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains a primary catalyst for market
volatility. We are currently witnessing a ‘shoot-first, ask questions
later’ environment, where investors are aggressively discounting
any industry with a perceived vulnerability to AI disruption. While
the initial fallout was concentrated in SaaS
2
business models, the
‘disruption discount’ has since bled into wealth management,
clinical research, and even global credit card networks.
As investors seek perceived safety, capital is shifting into sectors
seen as ‘AI-proof’, pushing valuations to historically high levels. A
stark example is Walmart: the U.S. retail giant now commands a
valuation multiple double that of Amazon, despite a significantly
slower earnings growth profile.
Portfolio
While current portfolio returns have not met our expectations
for shareholders, we remain disciplined in our approach. While
idiosyncratic stock selection always plays a role, the velocity and
magnitude of the current style-rotation has been extraordinary. The
performance divergence between high-quality growth companies
and their lower-quality peers has reached historical extremes.
For the long-term investor, the thesis for “Quality” remains
intact. Businesses defined by expansive moats, durable
growth runways, and exceptional management teams have
historically outperformed. While this style can lag during periods
of aggressive, momentum-driven markets, the long-term data
is compelling: the Quality factor has outperformed the broader
market by approximately 2.5% per annum over the last three
decades.
This unprecedented divergence in markets is creating real
opportunities to buy high-quality companies at attractive
valuations that we believe will outperform over the medium-to-
long-term. Valuation discrepancies between growth names and
value names (such as Amazon and Walmart) are near the most
disconnected levels we have seen in five years. We view the
current pricing of U.S. growth as particularly attractive and have
increased positions in high-quality portfolio holdings including
Amazon, Mastercard, Netflix, and Uber.
Furthermore, we are looking beyond our traditional footprint to
capture value in under-exposed sectors and geographies. Recent
allocations include Tyler Technologies (the dominant player in
public sector software) and Capital One (a technology-led leader
in the credit space). These additions complement our recent
investments in Old Dominion (top-tier US trucking company),
Keyence (the global leader in factory automation based in Japan),
and MercadoLibre (the e-commerce leader in Latin America).
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
2
Software-as-a-Service
MONTHLY UPDATE
March 2026
as at 28 February 2026
SHARE PRICE
$
0.87
DISCOUNT
1
0.04
%
MLN NAV
$
0.8 7
While recent market conditions have been challenging, the
stark disconnect between current sentiment and the underlying
fundamentals of our holdings is, in our view, unsustainable.
And these disconnects can change abruptly. We have already
seen previous high-flyers such as the Korean memory company
Samsung fall around 15% in just the first few days of March. As
stock prices inevitably retether to long-term earnings power, the
positioning of our portfolio companies, and new additions to the
portfolio, gives us great confidence in the prospects ahead.
We discuss the top performers and detractors for the month
below:
After three months of negotiations, Netflix (+15%) announced
it would withdraw its bid for the acquisition of Warner Brothers
Discovery. While Warner Brothers has irreplaceable titles such as
Harry Potter and Friends, the deal would have required Netflix to
take on debt and navigate significant cultural and administrative
challenges. Without the acquisition, Netflix can invest its strong
cash flow into growth areas like foreign-language content, live
events, and gaming to support its long-term growth.
Old Dominion (+17%) has been navigating a three-year freight
recession in the US; the longest recession in over twenty years.
While Old Dominion and its competitors continue to face declining
shipping volumes, the company pointed to potential green shoots
in its fourth-quarter earnings report in February. This caused Old
Dominions’ share price to rise on optimism that the freight cycle is
about to recover. Given Old Dominion’s track record of execution
in a recovering freight cycle and the strong operational leverage in
its business, we think the company will see a strong improvement
in profitability once shipping volumes return to growth.
Tradeweb (+20%) share prices increased following strong fourth-
quarter earnings beat and record January trading activity (growing
26% y/y). Management’s optimistic outlook for 2026, combined
with a dividend increase and a new $500 million share repurchase
program, boosted investor confidence. As the structural shift
toward electronic fixed-income trading continues, we believe the
company’s multi-asset platform positions it well to capture further
market share.
Icon’s (-40%) shares declined as the market reacted to AI
disruption concerns for clinical research organisations and an
internal investigation into accounting practices from 2023–2024
under the previous management. While the financial impact of
the investigation is estimated at less than 2% of revenues, the
announcement, plus the withdrawal of 2025 earnings guidance,
led to a sharp 30% single-day drop. This outcome is disappointing
considering we have owned Icon since 2008, a period in which the
company expanded revenue and profits ninefold. In response, we
have halved our position pending further clarity. Despite the current
cloud over the stock, Icon remains well-positioned to benefit
from a recovery in biopharma clinical trial spending, supported by
several new customer partnerships in recent years. We believe
investor’s reaction is disproportionate to the size of the revenue
restatement. This has created a compelling opportunity, and the
stock has since recovered 65% from its lows.
Amazon (-12%) shares fell following the announcement of a $200
billion capital expenditure plan for 2026—significantly higher than
the $145 billion expected by the market; and over 50% above
2025 levels. While the magnitude of the investment surprised us,
the direction is logical. We view this as a necessary investment
to capture the secular shift toward AI. History shows Amazon
is disciplined in building datacentre capacity and we believe
this remains the case given the strong underlying demand and
projected returns justify the spend; and growth of AWS has been
accelerating in recent quarters. Because this spend is heavily
weighted toward datacentre hardware, the company maintains the
flexibility to scale back quickly should demand fluctuate.
Tencent (-15%) faced pressure along with peers Alibaba and
Meituan due to aggressive “Lunar New Year” promotions for new
AI apps. This prompted regulators to warn against ‘involutionary’
competition — a locally used term for cutthroat price wars that
can erode industry margins. Despite these competitive pressures,
Tencent remains in a strong position with 1.4 billion users on its
Weixin platform. The company has already successfully integrated
AI capabilities into its high-margin gaming and short-video
businesses. With regulators monitoring the situation, promotional
spending should remain relatively controlled.
New portfolio additions
Tyler Technologies is the leading provider of essential software
to over 15,000 local and state governments in the US - from
property tax systems and court management systems through
to 911 dispatch systems. It is estimated that two-thirds of local
governments use in-house systems or outdated software that
is no longer supported. Security issues and rising maintenance
costs are driving a shift to modern systems, creating a long-
growth runway for Tyler. The company is the leading player in
public sector software and the only provider offering a full suite of
products covering most client needs. We previously held the stock
in the portfolio in 2019-2020; and we have taken advantage of the
indiscriminate sell-off in software names to add Tyler back into the
portfolio.
Capital One is a leading US credit card issuer. US credit cards
are an attractive segment within banking, with high barriers to
entry and strong returns. Capital One has grown market share
from 4% in 2010 to 14% today, and following the recent merger
with Discovery, Capital One is the third largest credit card issuer in
the US. Since day one, Capital One has been an information and
data focused company. It operates almost entirely as a digital bank
with limited branches; and is the only bank fully operating in the
cloud. This drives both strong credit card underwriting and cost
advantages versus traditional banks. The merger with Discovery
will strengthen the moat, deliver meaningful earnings growth, and
support higher capital returns for shareholders.
2
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
3
KEY DETAILS
as at 28 February 2026
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.89
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
227m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$198m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 28 February 2026
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 28 February 2026
Health Care24%
Information Technology21%
Consumer Discretionary18%
Communication Services14%
Financials12%
Industrial9%
Cash & Derivatives2%
North America83%
Western Europe7%
Asia Pacific7%
South & Central America3%
4
FEBRUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO during the month in local currency
TRADEWEB MARKETS
+20
%
MERCADOLIBRE INC
-18
%
KKR & CO INC
-23
%
ICON PLC
-25
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 28 February 2026
MICROSOFT
7
%
AMAZON
7
%
MASTERCARD
6
%
META PLATFORMS
6
%
NETFLIX
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 25 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 28 February 2026
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(5.4%)(5.0%)(4.7%)+5.7%(0.3%)
Adjusted NAV Return(3.9%)(6.2%)(7.5%)+8.3%+2.3%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (4.1%)(6.0%)(5.7%)+11.0%+4.4%
Benchmark Index^+2.9%+4.8%+21.8%+18.6%+12.0%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
GARTNER INC
-40
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 28 February 2026
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Nov
2023
Nov
2024
Nov
2025
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
5
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on 16
February 2026
»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin
shareholders in late February 2026
»Warrants will be allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 23 April 2026
»The new warrants (MLNWH) should commence trading
on the NZX Main Board from 24 April 2026
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.87, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment of
the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before
the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 23 April 2027
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated to
it from the Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement and other
written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is
managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio
Manager), Chris Waters (Senior
Investment Analyst), and Charles
Barty (Investment Analyst) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors
Andy Coupe (Chair), David
McClatchy, Fiona Oliver and
Dan Coman.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.