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MLN – March 2026 monthly update

Operational Update10 March 2026MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for February was -4.1%, while

the adjusted NAV return was -3.9%. This compared with our

global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index

(50% hedged to NZD), which was +2.9%.

Market Environment

Global equity markets rose 0.6% in February, with Europe +3.7%

and Japan +10.4%, as performance continued to broaden beyond

the US. The US S&P 500 fell -0.9%, despite a constructive US

earnings season.

While global stock markets have appeared calm on the surface

(notwithstanding the pickup in volatility in the last few days),

individual stocks and sectors are experiencing considerable

volatility. The quality and growth styles that underpin our STEEPP

investment process are currently facing their most significant

headwinds in over a quarter-century. High-quality companies

(those with robust balance sheets and consistent profitability)

have underperformed higher risk or lower-quality stocks (often

characterized by high debt or lack of earnings) by 13% year-to-

date. This follows a staggering 35% relative decline from the highs

of early last year.

Growth stocks (our style) also underperformed value

stocks by nearly 5% in February, following a similar level of

underperformance in January. Leadership has shifted toward

highly cyclical and capital-intensive sectors such as energy

(+23%), materials (+15%), and utilities (+12%). Investors are

betting on a big cyclical recovery in the US, driven by stimulative

fiscal policy, and they are chasing cheaper, lower quality, more

indebted companies. We typically avoid these sectors as they

often face structural headwinds—including commoditized pricing

and heightened competitive intensity—that fail to meet our

rigorous STEEPP criteria for sustainable, high-quality growth.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains a primary catalyst for market

volatility. We are currently witnessing a ‘shoot-first, ask questions

later’ environment, where investors are aggressively discounting

any industry with a perceived vulnerability to AI disruption. While

the initial fallout was concentrated in SaaS

2

business models, the

‘disruption discount’ has since bled into wealth management,

clinical research, and even global credit card networks.

As investors seek perceived safety, capital is shifting into sectors

seen as ‘AI-proof’, pushing valuations to historically high levels. A

stark example is Walmart: the U.S. retail giant now commands a

valuation multiple double that of Amazon, despite a significantly

slower earnings growth profile.

Portfolio

While current portfolio returns have not met our expectations

for shareholders, we remain disciplined in our approach. While

idiosyncratic stock selection always plays a role, the velocity and

magnitude of the current style-rotation has been extraordinary. The

performance divergence between high-quality growth companies

and their lower-quality peers has reached historical extremes.

For the long-term investor, the thesis for “Quality” remains

intact. Businesses defined by expansive moats, durable

growth runways, and exceptional management teams have

historically outperformed. While this style can lag during periods

of aggressive, momentum-driven markets, the long-term data

is compelling: the Quality factor has outperformed the broader

market by approximately 2.5% per annum over the last three

decades.

This unprecedented divergence in markets is creating real

opportunities to buy high-quality companies at attractive

valuations that we believe will outperform over the medium-to-

long-term. Valuation discrepancies between growth names and

value names (such as Amazon and Walmart) are near the most

disconnected levels we have seen in five years. We view the

current pricing of U.S. growth as particularly attractive and have

increased positions in high-quality portfolio holdings including

Amazon, Mastercard, Netflix, and Uber.

Furthermore, we are looking beyond our traditional footprint to

capture value in under-exposed sectors and geographies. Recent

allocations include Tyler Technologies (the dominant player in

public sector software) and Capital One (a technology-led leader

in the credit space). These additions complement our recent

investments in Old Dominion (top-tier US trucking company),

Keyence (the global leader in factory automation based in Japan),

and MercadoLibre (the e-commerce leader in Latin America).

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

2

Software-as-a-Service

MONTHLY UPDATE

March 2026

as at 28 February 2026

SHARE PRICE

$

0.87

DISCOUNT

1

0.04

%


MLN NAV

$

0.8 7

While recent market conditions have been challenging, the
stark disconnect between current sentiment and the underlying

fundamentals of our holdings is, in our view, unsustainable.

And these disconnects can change abruptly. We have already

seen previous high-flyers such as the Korean memory company

Samsung fall around 15% in just the first few days of March. As

stock prices inevitably retether to long-term earnings power, the

positioning of our portfolio companies, and new additions to the

portfolio, gives us great confidence in the prospects ahead.

We discuss the top performers and detractors for the month

below:

After three months of negotiations, Netflix (+15%) announced

it would withdraw its bid for the acquisition of Warner Brothers

Discovery. While Warner Brothers has irreplaceable titles such as

Harry Potter and Friends, the deal would have required Netflix to

take on debt and navigate significant cultural and administrative

challenges. Without the acquisition, Netflix can invest its strong

cash flow into growth areas like foreign-language content, live

events, and gaming to support its long-term growth.

Old Dominion (+17%) has been navigating a three-year freight

recession in the US; the longest recession in over twenty years.

While Old Dominion and its competitors continue to face declining

shipping volumes, the company pointed to potential green shoots

in its fourth-quarter earnings report in February. This caused Old

Dominions’ share price to rise on optimism that the freight cycle is

about to recover. Given Old Dominion’s track record of execution

in a recovering freight cycle and the strong operational leverage in

its business, we think the company will see a strong improvement

in profitability once shipping volumes return to growth.

Tradeweb (+20%) share prices increased following strong fourth-

quarter earnings beat and record January trading activity (growing

26% y/y). Management’s optimistic outlook for 2026, combined

with a dividend increase and a new $500 million share repurchase

program, boosted investor confidence. As the structural shift

toward electronic fixed-income trading continues, we believe the

company’s multi-asset platform positions it well to capture further

market share.

Icon’s (-40%) shares declined as the market reacted to AI

disruption concerns for clinical research organisations and an

internal investigation into accounting practices from 2023–2024

under the previous management. While the financial impact of

the investigation is estimated at less than 2% of revenues, the

announcement, plus the withdrawal of 2025 earnings guidance,

led to a sharp 30% single-day drop. This outcome is disappointing

considering we have owned Icon since 2008, a period in which the

company expanded revenue and profits ninefold. In response, we

have halved our position pending further clarity. Despite the current

cloud over the stock, Icon remains well-positioned to benefit

from a recovery in biopharma clinical trial spending, supported by

several new customer partnerships in recent years. We believe

investor’s reaction is disproportionate to the size of the revenue

restatement. This has created a compelling opportunity, and the

stock has since recovered 65% from its lows.

Amazon (-12%) shares fell following the announcement of a $200

billion capital expenditure plan for 2026—significantly higher than

the $145 billion expected by the market; and over 50% above

2025 levels. While the magnitude of the investment surprised us,

the direction is logical. We view this as a necessary investment

to capture the secular shift toward AI. History shows Amazon

is disciplined in building datacentre capacity and we believe

this remains the case given the strong underlying demand and

projected returns justify the spend; and growth of AWS has been

accelerating in recent quarters. Because this spend is heavily

weighted toward datacentre hardware, the company maintains the

flexibility to scale back quickly should demand fluctuate.

Tencent (-15%) faced pressure along with peers Alibaba and

Meituan due to aggressive “Lunar New Year” promotions for new

AI apps. This prompted regulators to warn against ‘involutionary’

competition — a locally used term for cutthroat price wars that

can erode industry margins. Despite these competitive pressures,

Tencent remains in a strong position with 1.4 billion users on its

Weixin platform. The company has already successfully integrated

AI capabilities into its high-margin gaming and short-video

businesses. With regulators monitoring the situation, promotional

spending should remain relatively controlled.

New portfolio additions

Tyler Technologies is the leading provider of essential software

to over 15,000 local and state governments in the US - from

property tax systems and court management systems through

to 911 dispatch systems. It is estimated that two-thirds of local

governments use in-house systems or outdated software that

is no longer supported. Security issues and rising maintenance

costs are driving a shift to modern systems, creating a long-

growth runway for Tyler. The company is the leading player in

public sector software and the only provider offering a full suite of

products covering most client needs. We previously held the stock

in the portfolio in 2019-2020; and we have taken advantage of the

indiscriminate sell-off in software names to add Tyler back into the

portfolio.

Capital One is a leading US credit card issuer. US credit cards

are an attractive segment within banking, with high barriers to

entry and strong returns. Capital One has grown market share

from 4% in 2010 to 14% today, and following the recent merger

with Discovery, Capital One is the third largest credit card issuer in

the US. Since day one, Capital One has been an information and

data focused company. It operates almost entirely as a digital bank

with limited branches; and is the only bank fully operating in the

cloud. This drives both strong credit card underwriting and cost

advantages versus traditional banks. The merger with Discovery

will strengthen the moat, deliver meaningful earnings growth, and

support higher capital returns for shareholders.

2

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

3
KEY DETAILS

as at 28 February 2026

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high-water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$0.89

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

227m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$198m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 28 February 2026

GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT

as at 28 February 2026

Health Care24%

Information Technology21%

Consumer Discretionary18%

Communication Services14%

Financials12%

Industrial9%

Cash & Derivatives2%

North America83%

Western Europe7%

Asia Pacific7%

South & Central America3%

4
FEBRUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO during the month in local currency

TRADEWEB MARKETS

+20

%

MERCADOLIBRE INC

-18

%

KKR & CO INC

-23

%

ICON PLC

-25

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 28 February 2026

MICROSOFT

7

%

AMAZON

7

%

MASTERCARD

6

%

META PLATFORMS

6

%

NETFLIX

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 25 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 28 February 2026

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(5.4%)(5.0%)(4.7%)+5.7%(0.3%)

Adjusted NAV Return(3.9%)(6.2%)(7.5%)+8.3%+2.3%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (4.1%)(6.0%)(5.7%)+11.0%+4.4%

Benchmark Index^+2.9%+4.8%+21.8%+18.6%+12.0%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.

GARTNER INC

-40

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 28 February 2026

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

Share Price Total Shareholder Return

Nov

2007

Nov

2011

Nov

2013

Nov

2014

Nov

2015

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2016

Nov

2020

Nov

2012

Nov

2022

Nov

2017

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2021

Nov

2023

Nov

2024

Nov

2025

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

5

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised

for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on 16

February 2026

»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin

shareholders in late February 2026

»Warrants will be allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders

on 23 April 2026

»The new warrants (MLNWH) should commence trading

on the NZX Main Board from 24 April 2026

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.87, adjusted

down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash

dividends declared on the shares with a record date

during the period commencing on the date of allotment of

the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before

the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin

»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 23 April 2027


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated to

it from the Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement and other

written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is

managed by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio

Manager), Chris Waters (Senior

Investment Analyst), and Charles

Barty (Investment Analyst) have prime

responsibility for managing the Marlin

portfolio. Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in

Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors

Andy Coupe (Chair), David

McClatchy, Fiona Oliver and

Dan Coman.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.