MLN – August 2026 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for July was +3.1%, while the adjusted
NAV return was +2.9%. This compared with our global benchmark, S&P
Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was
down -3.6%. It was pleasing to see a month of strong performance for
Marlin, particularly in a volatile market.
Team expansion and portfolio review
In July we strengthened the team managing the Marlin portfolio with the
addition of two investment analysts, Daniel Moser and Ashton Olds, who
join Chris Waters and Christian McIntyre. We now have four analysts
focused on the portfolio, which has allowed us to increase our research
coverage and assign sector specialists to key market sectors like
Technology, Consumer and Healthcare.
Over the last few months, we have undertaken a comprehensive review
of our existing portfolio positions, while identifying a handful of companies
that may be attractive additions. As a result, we expect to make several
changes in August to further broaden the portfolio’s sector and geographic
diversification . We will provide an update next month on these changes.
Market Environment
Global equity markets were volatile in July, delivering a modest decline that
masked one of the sharpest intra-month rotations seen in years. The S&P
500 ended the month little changed (down around 0.1%), but only after a
violent round trip: the Nasdaq fell more than 10% from its early-June high
to enter its second correction of the year by late July, before rallying in the
final days of the month on standout earnings from Microsoft and Amazon.
Semiconductor stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, with the Philadelphia
Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling around 20% in July. TSMC’s sharply
higher capital spending guidance, Samsung and SK Hynix’s own capex
plans, and reports of progress on Chinese domestic lithography tools
all raised questions about the risks a surge in chip supply could create.
Marlin’s avoidance of selected cyclical semiconductor stocks, like SK Hynix
(-32%) and Micron (-31%) helped relative performance during the month.
Middle East tensions also resurfaced, with a fragile US-Iran ceasefire
breaking down and renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz driving
Brent crude up by around 24% over the month, peaking near US$100
a barrel – a reversal of the de-escalation seen in June. Meanwhile, the
US Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, left interest rates
unchanged at its July meeting, but the market’s reaction was unusually
negative, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to its highest level since
January 2025 amid concerns that policymakers are falling behind on
inflation.
Portfolio
The Marlin Portfolio significantly outperformed its benchmark in July.
The single biggest driver was our long-standing underweight to
semiconductors: after detracting from relative performance for much of
the past year as the sector rallied strongly, this positioning proved highly
beneficial as the SOX recorded its worst month since 2008.
Strong stock selection amongst our largest holdings, particularly Microsoft
and Dexcom, provided a further meaningful contribution.
Microsoft (+25% in local currency) was our largest contributor, driven
by a strong fiscal fourth-quarter result that addressed concerns around
its AI investment cycle. Azure growth accelerated to 43%, ahead of
expectations, with management forecasting approximately 45% growth
for the September quarter and further acceleration thereafter. Unchanged
capital-spending guidance provided encouraging evidence of improving
returns on AI investment, while Microsoft 365 Copilot surpassed 30 million
paid seats with accelerating additions. The Microsoft result, as well as
Amazon (discussed below), reinforced our view that the hyperscale cloud
players remain one of the best ways to invest in the AI thematic, without
some of the risks we see with investing in more commoditised parts of the
semiconductor sector.
Dexcom (+24%) rebounded strongly following another quarter of
improved execution. US revenue grew 11%, international sales exceeded
expectations, and the company continued to gain share from Abbott
across both markets. Operating margin was approximately 300 basis
points ahead of expectations, supported by manufacturing improvements
and the more efficient 15-day sensor. Management raised the midpoint
of full-year revenue guidance and lifted its margin outlook, and a positive
clinical trial result in the non-insulin-treated Type 2 diabetes population
further strengthened the case for the multi-year expansion of the
addressable continuous glucose monitoring market.
Amazon (+14%) rose after AWS cloud growth accelerated to 37% – its
fastest pace in eighteen quarters – with AWS operating income reaching
US$16.6 billion. Amazon’s own AI and semiconductor businesses have
each surpassed a US$25 billion annualised revenue run-rate, further
evidence that AI investment is translating into demand. Third-quarter
operating income guidance of US$22.5–26.5 billion, well ahead of the
prior year, reinforced confidence despite a near-term swing to negative free
cash flow as infrastructure investment continues to ramp.
ASML (-18%) was our largest detractor, despite a strong second-quarter
result in which revenue of €9.33 billion beat expectations and full-year
guidance was raised to €43–45 billion. The shares fell sharply late in the
month on reports that China has begun manufacturing its own immersion-
DUV lithography tools domestically. They have only built a handful of
machines so far, well behind ASML’s technology, but enough to unsettle
investors about the durability of ASML’s China franchise. We think the
market’s reaction has been overdone given the small scale of the near-
term threat, but it added to a broader de-rating across the semiconductor
complex during the month.
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
August 2026
as at 31 July 2026
SHARE PRICE
$
0.71
MLN NAV
$
0.82
WARRANT PRICE
$
0.0 1
DISCOUNT
1
13. 8
%
TSMC (-15%) fell even as it reported a record quarter, with profit up 77%
to a new high, comfortably ahead of expectations and driven by continued
AI-processor demand. The share price weakness instead, reflected profit-
taking across crowded semiconductor positions and renewed investor
scrutiny of the AI infrastructure spending cycle, compounded late in the
month by concerns around cheaper Chinese AI models and China’s
progress in domestic chip-making equipment.
The common thread across many of July’s market moves was a
reassessment of the AI investment cycle. Investors increasingly
distinguished between companies where heavy investment is translating
into accelerating revenue growth, such as Microsoft and Amazon, and
those where the returns on rising capital intensity remain less visible. We
view this as greater selectivity within the AI theme, rather than a wholesale
rejection of its long-term growth potential.
July’s recovery in quality stocks, and de-rating of the market’s most
crowded areas, is consistent with the broadening in market leadership for
which we have been positioning. While one month does not establish a
lasting trend, we believe the disconnect between our portfolio companies’
underlying fundamentals and their relative valuations remains significant,
creating attractive opportunities for patient, long-term investors.
New portfolio additions/ exits
We did not add or exit any new stocks during the month.
2
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 July 2026
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.85
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
231m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$163m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 July 2026
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 July 2026
Information Technology26%
Consumer Discretionary21%
Health Care19%
Financials14%
Communication Services11%
Industrials7%
Cash & Derivatives2%
North America76%
Asia Pacific10%
Western Europe9%
South & Central America4%
Central Asia1%
3
JULY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO during the month in local currency
MICROSOFT
+25
%
DEXCOM
+24
%
GREGGS
+18
%
ASML
+17
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 July 2026
MICROSOFT
8
%
AMAZON
7
%
MASTERCARD
6
%
META PLATFORMS
5
%
TENCENT
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 26 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 July 2026
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(8.3%)(14.8%)(20.6%)(2.2%)(8.1%)
Adjusted NAV Return+2.9%+0.5%(5.8%)+3.1%(1.1%)
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +3.1%+1.1%(3.6%)+5.7%+1.1%
Benchmark Index^(3.6%)+3.2%+22.3%+17.1%+10.9%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
SALESFORCE
-18
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 July 2026
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Nov
2023
Nov
2024
Nov
2025
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on
16 February 2026
»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin
shareholders in late February 2026
»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 23 April 2026
»The new warrants (MLNWH) commenced trading on the
NZX Main Board from 24 April 2026
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.87, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment of
the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before
the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 23 April 2027
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest according
to the Management Agreement
and other written policies. Marlin’s
portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds
Management Limited. Ashley Gardyne
(Senior Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters (Senior Investment Analyst),
and Christian McIntyre, Daniel Moser
and Ashton Olds (Investment Analysts)
have prime responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together they
have significant combined experience
and are very capable of researching
and investing in the quality global
companies that Marlin targets. Fisher
Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Fiona
Oliver (Chair), David McClatchy,
Dan Coman and Simon Flood.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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