Meridian Energy investor day presentation
PG 1
Meridian Energy investor day presentation
20 November 2017
Attached is a presentation Meridian Energy is making at its investor day today.
ENDS
Mark Binns
Chief Executive
Meridian Energy Limited
For investor relations queries, please contact:
Owen Hackston
Investor Relations Manager
021 246 4772
For media queries, please contact:
Polly Atkins
External Communications Specialist
021 174 1715
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED MANAGEMENT PRESENTATION
2017 INVESTOR DAY.
2
WELCOME AND GOODBYE. MARK BINNS
.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
3
INTRODUCTION. NEAL BARCLAY
.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
4
Today.
Neal Barclay CEO Designate Our customers
Mike Roan Wholesale Markets Manager Wholesale markets
Guy Waipara General Manager Markets & Production Managing our portfolio
Richard Griffiths Strategic Asset Manager Strategic asset management
Mat Bayliss Asset Maintenance Manager Operational maintenance
Jon Spiller Transmission Manager Transmission
Geoffry Sams Transmission Specialist Transmission
Grant Telfar Strategic Advisor Energy efficiency
Dr Jen Purdie Portfolio and Fuels Advisor Climate variability and change
Chris Moller Chair
Paul Chambers CFO
Gillian Blythe Strategy Manager
Janine Crossley Treasury Manager
Owen Hackston Investor Relations Manager
Also attending
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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OUR CUSTOMERS. NEAL BARCLAY
.
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Historical earnings growth •
Source of earnings growth in the low
demand growth New Zealand market
Vertical integration
•
Provides wholesale market hedge against
spot market variability
•
Insulates earnings against unexpected
shocks in the wholesale market
Value of our customers.
$21M
$39M
$64M
$74M
$75M
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Financial Year ended 30 June
RETAIL SEGMENT PROFITABILITY
Source: Meridian’s FY17 segment disclosures with restated FY13-FY15 comparatives
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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Value of our customers.
High
Income
Strong
free cash
flow
Low
capital
needs
High free
cash flow
payout
Continued
cost
discipline
Progressive
ordinary DPS
Capital
manage-
ment
Potential
Growth
Customer
growth in
NZ
Customer
platform
review
Medium
term new
generation
Customer
growth in
Australia
Powershop
franchise
into the
UK/Europe
Long term
sustainable
business
Sources of shareholder value
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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Customer brand strength.
High level of awareness relative to market share, authentically sustainable
Source: Evaluating Brand Performance December 2016 (Meridian – Clarity Insight)
24%
15%
19%
7%
35%
FY2017 NZ RETAIL SALES EXCL. TIWAI
Residential
Small/medium business
Agricultural
Corporate/large business Industrial
Customer growth.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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Source: Meridian
•
High residential awareness, underweight
residential position
•
Additional load from back-to-back agreements
•
Growth aspirations in all segments including
commerical solar
•
Examining synergies between Meridian and
Powershop platforms
•
More integrated go-to-market plan for two brands
•
Churn improvement remains a focus
7%
12%
7%
12%
22%
13%
Meridian Powershop Industry Meridian Powershop Industry
%
ICP CHURN
32%
25%
6%
37%
FY2017 NATIONAL CONSUMPTION
Residential Commercial Agriculture/ Forestry/ Fishing Industrial
Source: Ministry of Business, Employment & Innovation
MOVE-IN SWITCH
TRADER SWITCH
Source:
Electricity
Authority
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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•
Aspiration to significantly grow Australian
customer base
•
Needs to be backed by more generation
•
PPA process is well advanced
•
Direct generation investment possible
under the right commerical terms
•
Planning dual-fuel offer into Victoria
Australian scale.
Source: Meridian
13,426
48,208
77,970
100,524
2014 2015 2016 2017
Financial Year ended 30 June
AUSTRALIAN CUSTOMERS
Powershop UK.
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•
Powershop platform and brand
franchised to nPower
•
14,000 nPower ICP’s through energy only
soft launch
•
Dual fuel functionality by January 2018
•
White label offers launched
•
Customer uptake dependent on nPower’s
sales and marketing
•
Exploring mainland Europe opportunities
with nPower’s parent company, Innogy
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Systematic approach •
Significant review and analysis of new
technology and customer changes
•
Selective scope
•
Test and trial approach, quick start and
stop (if needed), low investment
•
Global insights from three ‘natural labs’
Our approach to innovation.
Innovation in NZ.
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•
Separate software development business
with international focus
•
Significant Meridian digital investment
creating a quality customer experience
•
Powershop is a true native digital
business, well placed for transformation
•
SmartHome and Smart Tariffs recent
examples to go to market
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A more disruptive market than New Zealand •
Powershop is well positioned
•
Powershop helping customer participation
in neighbourhood generation and community energy projects
•
Both through tariff redistribution
•
And initiatives incentivising customers to
reduce consumption
Innovation in Australia.
The political scene.
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New Zealand •
Positive on the new Government’s proposals,
plenty of detail to engage on
•
Conversion of the Government car fleet to
electric by 2025/26 will strengthen EV takeup
•
Meridian is highly supportive of an
Independent Climate Commission
•
Case for fairer transmission charging remains
compelling
•
Greater focus on water quality
•
Resource rentals for water is complex, we are
supportive of a holistic, equitable approach
•
Retail pricing could benefit from addressing
misdirected low user charges
26.9
27.8
28.6
28.1
28.8
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
c/kWh
AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY COST
Energy Lines
+1%
+7%
+3%
+4%
+0%
+7%
-3%
+0%
+1%
+4%
Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment
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Australia •
Market is slow to commit to new renewables
due to the lack of coherent energy policy
•
Electricity is highly politicised, with significant
potential developments in the near term:
•
VIC Government reponse to Thwaites Review
on re-regulation
•
COAG Energy Council meeting on the NEG and
AER investigation into NSW generator bidding
•
AGL response to Federal Government on
Liddell power station
•
ACCC’s continuing enquiry into electricity
prices
•
Details on the VIC Government’s renewable
energy auction
The political scene.
Image: Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (L) and Leader of the Australian Labor Party, Bill Shorten (R)
Summary.
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•
Greater focus on our customers
•
To realise potential growth in multiple
countries
•
With continued discipline on cost management
and customer innovation
•
While protecting shareholder value in our core
business
•
Enduring commitment to sustainability, staff
wellbeing, process safety and customer experience
Image: One of Meridian’s pure electric Hyuandi IONIQ fleet vehicles
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NZ WHOLESALE MARKETS. MIKE ROAN.
•
“New Zealand is a world leading example of a
well functioning electricity market...” 2017 NZ Energy Policy Review – International Energy Agency
•
“....strong improvement across the three key
outcomes of competition, reliability and efficiency...” 2017 Electricity Authority Annual Report
Overview.
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ASX Commences – April 2011
•
Liquidity
Pole 3 Commissioned – May 2013
•
NZ-wide competition emerges
FTRs – June 2013
•
Emergence of basis products
ASX Monthly Products Arrive – Dec 2013
•
Additional liquidity (in prompt months)
Gate Closure to 1 Hour – June 2017
•
Spot market price efficiency improves
Key market reforms.
ASX – standardised forward market
Pole 3 – improved market flexibility & risk management
ASX Monthly Products – short term standard products to price hydrology
Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs)
Spot Market Gate reduces from 2hrs to 1 hr
2008 ‘dry year’ and subsequent Ministerial Review
Today:
35 retail brands Security of supply Very competitive retail market 25 generating companies 47 traders participating
The forward market is very effective •
Liquidity exceeds initial targets
•
Monthly products provide ability to hedge
seasonal shapes (and enhance liquidity)
•
Meridian has sold over 100MW on ASX in
various quarters
•
Others use this market to hedge effectively as
well
ASX forward market.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
21
Source: ASX
!
#!$!&!(!
"!!
"#!
$"&
""'
$#!"&
"#!"'
%'!
MM (market maker)
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22
OTC market emerged following ASX •
Used for short term hedging
•
Brokered and bilateral (direct)
•
Products are typically bespoke
•
Large hedging transactions (i.e. 10MW +)
•
Unit outage hedges
•
Shaped retail hedges
•
Specific risk instruments like our swaption
with Genesis
Over the Counter (OTC) market.
Source: Meridian
"!!
'! %! $!
#!
!
#!$!%!'!
"&
"&
"&
"&
"&
"&
"&
•
Instrument that manages price risk between nodes
•
Meridian is one of the largest participants •
Should not be a surprise with our South Island hydro generation and distributed customer base
•
FTRs are effective baseload products •
FTRs manage underlying basis risk
•
FTRs do not manage peak or other basis risks, OTC (and spot) market products are designed to do this
Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs).
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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Source: Meridian
■ Contact ■ OMF ■ Other ■ Meridian
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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•
Spot market prices provide an index for most contracts
•
Efficiency and reliability of these prices builds support for contracting
•
Enabling changes to offers/bids as close to real time as possible improves price formation •
Spot market is the central market
•
Spot market flexibility allows participants to
adjust positions
•
The move from 2 hours to 1 hour went very
smoothly
•
We will ask the EA and System Operator to
consider reducing it further to 30 minutes
20 years of spot market trading.
Image: Meridian’s Wellington trading room
•
Wholesale markets are competitive and effective
•
The addition of ASX, OTC and FTR markets in particular drive greater competition
•
Meridian participates in all markets to manage its portfolio
•
The Electricity Authority is acknowledged internationally as an effective market operator
Summary.
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Image: Meridian’s Wellington trading room
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MANAGING OUR PORTFOLIO. GUY WAIPARA
.
Generation and sales portfolio •
Bowtie framework
•
Modified to cover observed behaviour
•
Optimising real time hydro dispatch
2017 review
•
Statistics
•
Managing risk and storage
•
“Hindcast” results
•
What did we learn?
Overview.
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Image: Lake Pūkaki and Genesis Energy’s Tekapo B station, June 2017
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Whole of NZ construct
•
Demand (including demand response)
•
Supply (including plant reliability)
•
Hydrology
•
A simplified regional transmission system
Our objective
•
To find the portfolio or contract position that
delivers the maximum revenue, with the minimum distribution, across the hydrology outcomes we expect to experience
•
Guides our three-year portfolio planning and is
integrated across all of our wholesale and retail sales channels
Bowties.
Source: Meridian
Impact of contract positions •
Observations are that parties’ behaviour is
affected by their respective contract positions
•
Have developed our models to include the best
information we have on our and others’ contract positions
•
Still includes an opportunity cost of water to
ensure that hydro storage is managed efficiently within its full operating range (from spill to shortage)
Reflecting market behaviour.
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Image: Meridian’s Mill Creek wind farm
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The bowtie neck has a reasonable range •
So there are a number of “optimal” contract
positions
•
Doing more work to test what position(s)
deliver improvements in mean revenues while minimising variability
•
Early results look like we have more capacity to
sell above our current contract position without incurring more risk
•
The NZAS back-to-back contracts have also
created more sales headroom
Next evolution.
Source: Meridian
Minimise risk
Maximise revenue
Image: NZAS aluminium smelter, Tiwai Ploint
7,029
6,285
5,900
6,435
455
1,110
1H FY17
2H FY17
GWH
GENERATION AND CONTRACTED SALES
Physical generation
Contracted sales
Acquired generation
How we adjust the portfolio to reflect near-term conditions •
Even with what may look like a conservative portfolio, we can find ourselves long generation (first half of 2017) or short generation (second half of 2017)
When average doesn’t show up...
•
It is important that all wholesale and retail sales are well co-ordinated
•
Models are run weekly with weekly energy targets delivered to our traders. Pricing guidance is provided to retail C&I sales
•
Executive portfolio committee meets monthly to oversee execution of the plan
•
During times of hydro stress this committee is updated weekly
Moving closer to real time.
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Source: Meridian
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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Hydro optimisation continues right up to real time •
Waitaki is block dispatched
•
Optimising lake levels across the chain means you
can get the best water to wire efficiency (remember E
p
= mgh?)
What we have achieved •
Developed in-house tools to optimise hydro
production to deliver weekly targets across a range of inputs, including:
•
Weekly energy, outages, generation efficiency,
ramp rates, lake levels, flow and lake level constraints, expected inflows
•
Estimated $3m pa improvement
•
Also delivers consistency in operations across all
Generation Controller staff
Within a week, up to real time.
Source: Meridian’s hydro optimisation tools
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2017 IN REVIEW.
First half FY17
•
Inflows 96% of average
•
Generation 3% above FY16
•
$44/MWh average generation price
•
Storage 118% of average at end of December 2016
Second half FY17
•
Inflows 78% of average
•
Generation 8% below FY16
•
$59/MWh average generation price
•
Storage 55% of average at end of June 2017
•
February to June 2017 were the lowest same-period inflows on record
2017 key statistics.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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Source: Meridian
0
1,000
2,000 3,000
1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec
MERIDIAN'S WAITAKI STORAGE 1H FY17 (GWh)
Average 1979-
2017
0
1,000
2,000 3,000
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun
MERIDIAN'S WAITAKI STORAGE 2H FY17 (GWh)
Average 1979-
2017
1,919
7,029
5,665
INFLOWS, GENERATION, STORAGE 1H FY17 (GWH)
Inflows
Physical generation
Storage (period end)
883
6,285
4,845
INFLOWS, GENERATION, STORAGE 2H FY17 (GWH)
Inflows
Physical generation
Storage (period end)
Source: Meridian
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Commercially •
Called the Genesis Swaption between June and August 2017
•
Were able to delay calling this as we had better offers available earlier on
•
ASX and OTC liquidity meant we had a range of options
•
Still had the smelter demand response available to call if necessary
•
Swaption flexibility significantly improved our risk management tool set. Benefit to having 50 MW tranches with relatively short call periods
•
NZAS backing contracts plus the swaption has significantly reduced Meridian’s risk position
Managing risk.
Source: ASX
40
60
80
100
120
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2020
$/MWh
BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
31 January 2017
28 February 2017
31 March 2017
28 April 2017
31 May 2017
30 June 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
12 Jun 17
19 Jun 17
26 Jun 17
03 Jul 17
10 Jul 17
17 Jul 17
24 Jul 17
31 Jul 17
07 Aug 17
Weekly energy (GWh)
GENESIS SWAPTION VOLUMES
Source: Meridian
Even at the end of the dry period
•
Portfolio could still be covered with minimal risk of hitting the bottom of Pūkaki
•
At 21 July still 1ox more likely to spill (34 sequences) than to even use contingent storage (3 sequences)
•
The effect of the Swaption is to reduce the risk significantly (200 GWh lift in 5
th
percentile)
Take outs
•
Portfolio is robust and has changed with NZAS contracts
•
Still had more insurance options over and above the Swaption
•
These facts seemed to surprise some stakeholders
•
Ongoing information sharing was key
Storage management.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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Source: Meridian
Source: Meridian Lake Pūkaki projected storage from July 2017 with Swaption volumes
Source: Meridian Lake Pūkaki projected storage from July 2017 without Swaption volumes
Theoretical storage energy balance
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What is a Hindcast? •
A comparison of what occurred with what perfect
competition would have delivered
Why is it important?
•
Provides an analytical framework to test whether the
market has delivered an efficient outcome for consumers
•
Is a good proxy for a regulatory test and informs
questions such as:
•
Is a company using storage too conservatively or
aggressively?
•
Do market prices reasonably reflect scarcity?
Results
•
Hydro storage and market prices consistent with
expected outcomes from a perfect market
•
If anything, slight risk aversion in our storage use
A “Hindcast” comparison.
Source: Meridian
Transpower •
Engaged early to discuss hydrology, water values and
plans
•
Considered a change to contingent storage – but
decided to put off until a review was completed
•
Reviewing their security of supply policy
Electricity Authority
•
Engaged early as above
•
Received some complaints from others but these
lacked quantitative analysis
•
EA 2017 Annual Report “...electricity market has once
again worked effectively to manage the dry conditions.”
•
Will complete a formal review of 2017
Engaging with stakeholders.
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Market maturity •
Continued to learn and evolve over dry year experiences
•
The improved liquidity in the ASX and OTC markets helped manage risk
Stakeholder engagement
•
No such thing as engaging too early. There is significant information asymmetry
•
Having an analytical framework like hindcasting is extremely helpful
•
Testing the system operator’s security policy (in particular their modelling of contingent storage) was done too late
Others perceptions of risk and behaviour
•
Is potentially based on historical assumptions which have not been tested, given the changes to our portfolio
What did we learn from this year?
“Assumptions are the termites of relationships.” (Henry Winkler)
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STRATEGIC ASSET MANAGEMENT. RICHARD GRIFFITHS
.
•
Approach and philosophy
•
Our 20-year asset management plan
•
Expenditure forecasts
•
Major projects
•
Process safety
•
Benchmarking
Content.
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Image: Meridian’s Benmore power station
Image: Meridian’s Aviemore power station
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We are committed to: •
Protecting the value of Meridian’s assets
•
Maintaining the safety, performance and
capability of these assets over their projected economic life, and
•
Meeting our asset management obligations in a
manner that is demonstrably world class
Performance is founded on:
•
Total Asset Management – people, process, plant
•
AMP based on balancing risk, financial and plant
performance
•
Best practice reliability centred maintenance
practices and processes
•
Conformity with ISO55001
Asset management principles.
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Major turbine and generator works set the primary timing of the 20-year plan
Strategic asset management plan.
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Long-term commitment to the Structural Safety Evaluation Programme
Strategic asset management plan.
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Control systems, excitation & protection replacements are best fit
Strategic asset management plan.
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Fit other projects in at optimum timing
Strategic asset management plan.
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Waitaki Stage II, civil works, contingent works
Strategic asset management plan.
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Current plan
Strategic asset management plan.
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Excludes Stage II Waitaki generator refurbishment – a 10-year programme, as yet unconfirmed, with peak annual spend of around $15m
Hydro capital expenditure forecast.
0
10
20 30
40
50
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29
INDICATIVE HYDRO CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
$M
Source: Meridian
Overview •
Waitaki was first commissioned in 1935 and is
the final power station on the Waitaki River
•
Reliability and performance is important for
managing consent flows
•
Annually generates ~$30m in energy revenues
Capital Deferral Enabling Works (complete)
•
Stator cleaning on Units 1 & 2
•
Unit 3 re-commissioned
•
Upgraded unit protection and fire suppression
•
Sluice gate control upgrades
General Upgrades (complete)
•
Mechanical & electrical plant refurbishments
•
Seismic strengthening of power house
•
Upgrade of transformer fire walls
•
Upgrade of station cranes
Waitaki refurbishment.
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Images: Meridian’s Waitaki power station
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Dam Safety Upgrades (complete)
•
Repairs to left bank abutment
•
River bank erosion protection works
•
Piezometers upgraded
•
Uplift drainage upgraded and extended
Dam Safety Upgrades (work in progress)
•
Inundation protection of the Hornell Gallery
•
Manifolding of the uplift drainage system
Stage II Generator Upgrades (planned)
•
Ongoing commitment to maintenance and condition
monitoring to extend life and maintain reliability
•
Upgrade timing driven by condition as we operate the
machines in a “manage to end-of-life” mode
•
While the actual timing is uncertain, the plan assumes
this will initiate in 5-10 years
•
Comprises complete replacement of four of the seven
turbines/generators
Waitaki refurbishment.
Images: Meridian’s Waitaki power station
Overview •
Manapōuri commissioned in 1967
•
Underground power station
•
Generates ~$250m per annum
Main Unit Transformers
•
T2, T3 and T4 were replaced in 2015 following
failure of the oil coolers
•
T1, T5, T6, T7 currently being manufactured by
Wilsons
•
All four will be delivered to Deep Cove in late
November 2017
Local Service Transformers
•
T8 & T9 manufacturing underway
•
Mitsubishi SF6 transformers
•
SF6 eliminates environmental risks and fire
hazards from switchyard
•
Delivery expected end of FY18
Manapōuri transformers.
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Image: Transformer haulage Manapōuri power station
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Overview •
Ōhau chain comprises Ōhau A, B & C
•
Controls flow from Lakes Pūkaki & Ōhau
•
Collectively generate ~$220m pa
Programme
•
$48m business case approved in October 16
•
Programme extends through to 2023
Scope comprises:
•
Ōhau A unit refurbishments
•
Ōhau A, B & C control upgrades
•
Ōhau B & C protection, excitation and transformer
firewall upgrades
•
Ōhau B & C generator refurbishments
Current status
•
Unit G11 stator inspection completed
•
Design and procurement well underway
Ōhau chain upgrade programme.
Image: Meridian’s Ōhau A power station
Image: Meridian’s Ōhau B power station
Overview •
Meridian initiated a review of its process safety
risks in 2014
•
Lockheed Martin and Scottish Power were
engaged in 2015 to facilitate risk bowtie workshops and undertake a gap analysis
•
Meridian established a programme to
implement the recommendations
•
In 2016 a ramp-down event at Manapōuri
occurred. DuPont were invited to undertake a post-incident review
•
DuPont endorsed the workstreams that were
underway and recommended an additional focus on the interface between ICT and generation plant
•
The outcome has also seen an increased level
of management focus and commitment
Process safety.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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1.
Understanding what can go wrong
2.
Knowing what systems we have to prevent things from going wrong
3.
Having information to assure ourselves that these systems are working effectively
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Key Workstreams: •
Develop R
Risk Bowties
for all sites and integrate
into AMP
•
Undertake an A
Alarm Management
and
rationalisation programme
•
Undertake a R
Risk Management
review
•
Review the P
Plant Change Control
process
•
Process safety T
Training and Awareness
programme
•
Review the management of C
Controlled
Documents
•
Address defects with the G
Generation Control
System
•
Develop a suite of P
Process Safety KPIs
and
dashboard
Process safety.
Images: Meridian’s risk bowties and reporting
International Benchmarking
•
Meridian compares very favourably against international peer group in respect to both Composite Service Level
(function of Plant
Availability and Forced Outage duration) and
Unit Cost Of Production
•
Manapōuri is a leading performer in the large hydro category
•
Waitaki chain stations are all in the upper quartile
Benchmarking results.
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OPERATIONAL MAINTENANCE. MAT BAYLISS.
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The Waitaki scheme.
Some facts
•
Eight hydro stations in the Waitaki Scheme
•
Tekapo A and B are owned by Genesis Energy
•
The six hydro stations from Lake Pūkaki to
Waitaki, owned by Meridian
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The Waitaki scheme.
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Hydroelectric power.
How we are organised •
Engineers, trades staff, technicians, operators,
maintenance planners
•
Dedicated maintenance teams for three asset
portfolios
•
Ōhau Chain, Mid-Waitaki and Manapōuri
•
Including graduates and apprentices, 70 staff
in three locations
•
Augmented by contractors
What do we do
•
Planned maintenance, defect and fault
response
•
Maintenance projects include civil,
mechanical, electrical and automation repairs and upgrades
Hydro Asset Maintenance
.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
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Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
62
Hydro plant performance measures
•
Availability (% of time)
•
Operational Unit Cost $/MWh
•
Forced Outage Factor (% of cap)
•
Forced Outage Count (# events)
Maintenance process measures
•
Multiple live measures
•
Extensive use of maintenance management
system (Maximo)
•
Targets reset annually to reflect focus areas,
continuous improvement
•
Remuneration linked to outcomes for all staff
•
Periodic benchmarking using external service
Performance.
Source: Meridian
Our Approach •
Lead role in industry collaboration forums
(StayLive, EEA etc)
•
Safety & Sustainability Board Committee
•
Dedicated H&S team reporting to MaP GM
•
Competent workforce, strong safety culture
•
Incident reporting and investigation
•
Safety performance of contractors
Health and safety.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
63
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
64
Our Community Engagement Strategy
•
Significant footprint in multiple small rural
communities
•
Goodwill important when operating large
assets, lakes and rivers
•
Multiple engagement mechanisms & channels
•
Power Up – Meridian community fund
•
Community sponsorships
•
Staff involvement
•
Collaboration
•
National sponsorships
•
Meridian held in high regard
Community.
Image: Haast kiwi release, Rona Island, Lake Manapōuri
History •
Built in 1968 as a temporary service town
•
Saved from demolition in 1983
•
Today is the largest town in the MacKenzie
Meridian
•
Large employer in the area, now including a
retail call centre
•
Direct contributor to the community
Twizel.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
65
Image: Twizel, late 1960s
Source: Electricity Authority
MANAGING TRANSMISSION
.
GEOFFRY SAMS AND JON SPILLER
.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
66
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
67
Meridian’s power stations •
2,762MW installed capacity
•
32% of New Zealand’s generation
•
89% located in South Canterbury and Southland
Meridian’s customer base
•
280,000 customers all across New Zealand
•
Connected through 29 lines networks
•
Geographically distant from our generation
New Zealand transmission system
•
Owned and operated by Transpower
•
11,238km transmission lines connecting generation to
customers
•
High voltage backbone running from Southland to
Auckland
Getting energy to customers.
Source: Transpower’s APR 2017
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
68
The transmission system is robust
•
Transpower backbone consists of high voltage
(220-110kV) AC transmission lines
•
North and South Islands connected via 350kV
HVDC link between Haywards in Wellington and Benmore in South Canterbury
•
Transpower’s investments in the following projects
over the last five years has removed most bottlenecks:
•
North Island Grid Upgrade Programme 400kV
(capable) line from Whakamaru to Pakuranga in 2012 ($824m)
•
HVDC Pole 3, replacement of Pole 1 2013 ($672m)
•
North Auckland and Northland reinforcement for
upper North Island 2013 ($473m)
•
Ōtāhuhu substation diversity 2010 ($99m)
•
Wairakei ring 2013 ($141m)
Transmission backbone.
Source: Transpower’s RCP2 Submission
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
69
Investment in the HVDC link has greatly improved Meridian’s generation flexibility •
Following the decommissioning of Pole 1 in 2011, total
HVDC capacity reduced from 1,000MW to 700MW
•
New HVDC Pole 3 was then commissioned in 2013,
increasing total HVDC capacity to 1,200MW
•
Usable capacity
1
is often signficantly lower, dependant
on a number of market conditions, primarly NI reserves
•
Meridian has been working with Transpower to enable
greater utilisation of the full HVDC capacity
•
As part of this effort, the overload capability was
increased in 2016, which enabled usable capacity of ~950MW
HVDC Pole 3.
Source: Meridian
1: Usable capacity calculated assuming 300MW of NI reserves offered to the market
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
36%
42%
48%
54%
60%
66%
72%
78%
84%
90%
96%
Transfer [MW]
Probability of exceedence [%]
HVDC North transfers (2011 - 2016)
Tx limit 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Utilisation has increased over time
0
200
400 600 800
1000
1200 1400
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Transfer [MW]
HVDC transfer capability (2011 - 2017)
Usable capacity
Installed capacity
Pole 2,
700MW
Pole 3,
1000MW
Overload
capacity
Control upgrade,
1200MW
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
70
Meridian has a number of tools and processes to manage transmission constraints •
Simulations from power system modelling
•
Historical event analysis
•
Knowledge capture of constraints and outages
We also manage exposure through a number of market mechanisms
•
Financial Transmission Rights (FTR’s)
•
Over the counter financial arrangements
•
Collaborating with the System Operator on risk
assumptions
•
Implementation of “special protection schemes”
•
Plant maintenance scheduling
Constraint management.
FTR Holdings -
Dec 2017
(as at 1/11/17)
Power System
Modelling
Software
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
71
Two primary drivers
•
Meridian perceives the biggest possible catalysts
of change to the transmission system as:
•
Potential Tiwai Point smelter shutdown
•
Potential Huntly Rankine unit retirement
•
Both these scenarios would require new
transmission investment by Transpower
•
Meridian believes our current tools and
capabilities would enable us to continue to manage our portfolio, if the transmission investment projects were progressed
Catalyst for transmission investment.
Image: Genesis Energy’s Huntly
Power Station
Image: NZAS aluminium smelter at Tiwai Point
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
72
Three significant restrictions
•
If an exit of the Tiwai Point smelter occurs, a
number of transmission constraints have been identified by Transpower that would impede energy transfer across the transmission system:
•
1. Southland export constraint
•
2. HVDC north export constraint
•
3. Lower North Island transfer constraint
Potential Tiwai Point smelter shutdown.
Image: NZAS smelter at Tiwai Point
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
73
Constraints can be managed while investment programme is completed •
A potential Tiwai Point smelter exit will release an
additional 5,000GWh of energy into the market
•
This generation is predominately supplied from our
Manapouri power station and Contact Energy’s Clutha power scheme
•
We are currently investigating options with
Transpower to maintain the current transmission capacity during the subsequent investment program
•
Peak generation capacity within the region will be
constrained
•
In order to minimise lost energy we will need to
manage storage until transmission is built out
1. Southland export constraint.
Source: Meridian
Source: Transpower’s 2016 SSF
%
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!
!
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
74
Project ready to initiate following a smelter announcement •
Transpower have a fully costed and approved
project to resolve the Southland export issue; the Clutha Upper Waitaki Lines Project
1
:
•
Two sections already commissioned
•
Three years to complete remaining two
sections
•
Detailed designs for remain projects
completed and majority of land access rights obtained
•
Fully costed at $110m
2
•
Once complete will enable full generation
export capability
Southland improvements.
Source: Meridian
1: https://www.transpower.co.nz/clutha-upper-waitaki-lines-project-and-tiwai-future-faqs
2: Transpower’s Grid Upgrade Plan 2009 Instalment 3
Image: Lake Manapōuri
!'&&&
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ANNUAL SI DEMAND
HVDC TRANSFER
ANNUAL SI
GENERATION
GWH/YR
YEARLY GWH TRANSFER TO NORTH ISLAND POST
SMELTER EXIT
Meridian
Others
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
75
Current HVDC capacity is sufficient to manage greater transfer to North Island •
HVDC capacity has been substantially increased
•
Current peaking capacity of 950MW has only been
utilised 2% of the time
•
Any potential Tiwai Point smelter exit will have no
impact to current HVDC peaking capacity into the North Island
•
The additional energy released if the Tiwai Point
smelter was to exit can be transferred to the market under the current HVDC capacity, provided storage is managed across the year
2. HVDC north export constraint.
Source: Meridian
Image: Transpower’s Pole 3, Benmore
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Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
76
Increasing usable capability •
Transpower have started detailed investigation into
undersea cable replacement project
•
Current cable asset end of life between 2023-2025
•
Installing a fourth cable would increase HVDC
capability to 1,400MW and could increase usable capacity to 1,150MW
•
Cost of installing an additional 500MW cable is
~$55.8m
1
•
Adds an additional 200MW of peaking capacity into
the North Island
•
With flexible hydro assets able to respond quickly,
we are well positioned to utilise the additional HVDC peaking capacity to support North Island demand
2. HVDC improvements.
Image: Transpower’s Pole 3, Benmore
1: Assuming it is installed as part of the undersea cable replacement project. If project precedes in isolation, expected cost is $150m
Source: Meridian
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
77
Current transmission issues •
Limited transfer from Bunnythorpe through to
Whakamaru
•
Limits lower North Island and Taranaki generation
into the upper North Island
No planned improvements
•
Constraint when competing with Taranaki
generation
•
Expect to see lower cost generation dispatch ahead
of higher cost peaking thermal
3. Lower North Island transfer constraint.
Source:
Transpower’s
2016 SSF
0
1000
2000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Wellington transfer North [MW]
Taranaki Generation [MW]
Wellington export limits based on Taranaki generation
(Tokaanu-Whakamaru)
Linear (Winter)
Linear (Summer)
Source: Transpower’s 2016 SSF
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
78
Investigation is underway
•
A separate issue is the potential
decommissioning of Huntly Rankine units
•
There is sufficient generation in the market to
cover demand into the upper North Island
•
94% of upper North Island generation is
currently sourced from outside region
•
Transmission investment will be required ahead
of the Rankine unit retirement to enable sufficient energy to be transferred into the region
•
This investment would be independent of any
Tiwai Point smelter outcome
Huntly Rankine unit retirement.
Image: Genesis Energy’s Huntly Generation Station
1500 1700 1900 2100
2300 2500 2700 2900
3100
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033
Upper North Island demand [MW]
Auckland voltage stability import limit
Winter demand Current capacity
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
79
Investment project underway •
Transpower currently working through the Waikato
and Upper North Island Voltage Management Investigation
•
Longlist option consultation has been completed
•
Lower cost short-term options likely to be
preferred such as series capacitors
•
Solution to be implemented ahead of any Genesis
Rankine unit retirement
Auckland import.
Source: Transpower’s UNI generation decommissioning report
Source: Transpower’s 2016 SSF
Investment required by
2024 based on Transpower
demand forecast
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
80
Meridian is well placed to manage its portfolio through future uncertainty
•
Transmission upgrades are more critical for
lower South Island and reduce as you move north
•
Key projects are well developed
•
Flexibility of storage will allow Meridian to
manage lost energy during investment phase
•
Our transmission team continue to work with
the industry to improve the current capability of the transmission system
Summary.
Image: Meridian Energy’s Benmore Power Station
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
81
ENERGY EFFICIENCY. GRANT TELFAR
.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
82
What is the problem
•
Very poor data on energy usage
•
Demand has been flat for some time
•
Traditional econometric modelling approach has
increasingly struggled to explain demand outcomes
Forecasting demand.
GDP
Dwellings
Population
Tariffs
GDP
Dwellings
Population
Tariffs
Residual
1998-2008
: small residuals
(error in fit) using standard
macro-economic factors
2008 onwards
: residuals
grow; harder to explain
Residual
! !
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“Missing”
demand
Source: Meridian, Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment
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NZ household usage
•
Very poor data on energy usage
•
BRANZ HEEP study (2002-2005) last
comprehensive nationwide survey
•
Insights:
•
Electrical heating spend is low (on
average)
•
Biggest spend is on hot water
Usage as at 2008.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
83
Source: BRANZ, Meridian
costs in real
terms (2017$)
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Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
84
NZ non-household usage
•
Even worse data
•
BRANZ HEEP plus 2005 Treasury study are both
useful
•
Insights:
•
NZ business use a lot of motors (motive and
pumping)
•
Combined lighting, refrigeration, and heating
similar scale to residential
Usage as at 2008.
Source: Treasury, Meridian
NZ households •
Kiwis love buying appliances
•
TV efficiency has improved dramatically
•
2017 lighting efficiency reflects slow LED uptake
•
Room for further efficiency improvements
•
Technology driven rather than price responsive
NZ non-household
•
Hard to know
•
Motive power, lighting and water heating have
significant potential to reduce energy demand
•
Total efficiency potential up to 25%
•
Likely to free-ride on technology changes
•
More likely to trade-off costs (eg LEDs)
What has changed?
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
85
Source:
EECA,
Meridian
!
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technology
changes
driving
savings
savings are
available at
a price
Source:
Treasury,
Meridian
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
86
Efficiency is only one part of the puzzle
•
Greater efficiency does not necessarily mean a
reduction in overall consumption, e.g: •
NZ houses appear warmer than they were 15
years ago (not hard)
•
Replacing an incandescent light bulb with an
LED implies an 85% saving in energy use – but how many do LEDs do we install? What incandescent ‘waste’ heat now needs replacing?
Household energy usage as at 2017 •
Not a lot of change proportionally
•
Heating consumption has likely increased
•
TV consumption has dropped markedly
•
Incremental improvements in appliances ...except
dryers!
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costs in
real terms
(2017$)
indoor
temperatures
up
no clear change in
external
temperatures
How we use energy now.
Source:
BRANZ,
Meridian
Source:
Meridian
NZ households •
Increase seen in potential household efficiency
related savings since 2002
•
Hot water shown least improvement
•
Scale of implied savings ~500MW of new wind
generation ($1.2B+ worth) in last 15 years
NZ non-household
•
Increase seen in potential commercial efficiency
related savings since 2002
•
Equipment life cycle (age and replacement) is critical
•
Higher uptake of LEDs than residential (probably)
•
Scale of implied savings is another ~500MW of new
wind generation in the last 15 years
Better efficiency potential?
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
87
Source:
Meridian
Source:
Meridian
#
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! " # $ % & ' ! " # $
%
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)
technology driven
efficiency potential
steadily increasing
technology & cost
driven efficiency
potential steadily
increasing
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
88
Improved demand forecast
•
Including efficiency potential alongside other
economic variables dramatically improves model
•
But early days! Careful of monkeys & typewriters
•
Assessing future efficiency is challenging
•
Forecast efficiency data and customer usage is
not readily available – but we
can
examine
•
Remaining efficiency potential by usage
•
Views on consumption/ICP trajectories
•
Economic energy intensity improvements
•
Growth of 0.5% - 1.0% pa seems likely – with plant
retirement adding to the system need for new power
Where to now?
Source:
MBIE,
Meridian
Source:
Meridian
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“Missing” demand
better explained
Efficiency and price
response bends growth
downwards
...
but how far?
GDP
Dwellings
Population
Tariffs
1991-2017
:
including
efficiency
restores small
explainable
residuals
Efficiency
potential
Residual
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
.
DR JEN PURDIE.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
89
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
90
We forecast and plan on different time scales: •
Days to weeks:
•
plan generation and offers into the market to use
intermittent wind and to move water through the river chain
•
Months to years:
•
plan generation and contract position, and manage
risk through financial instruments
•
Years to decades:
•
We make long term projections of generation and
new plant
We are always walking the tightrope between:
•
Running out, and
We rely on the timely arrival of our fuel.
...OVERFLOWING!
Image: Genesis
Energy’s Tekapo
B station
Image: Contact
Energy’s Clyde Dam
91
•
Our fuel arrival varies from year to year
•
It’s arrival is anticorrelated with electricity demand
•
We have limited ability to store it
•
We have to plan the number of customers/contracts
that we take on ahead of time
•
We can offset some of our fuel variability with
planning and financial instruments
Our fuel is variable.
! " # $
% &
Lake Pukaki weekly average inflows 1931-2013
New Zealand hydro inflows vs electricity demand
$
%$$$
&$$$
'$$$
($$$
)$$$
*$$$
"
"
!
!
Storage and average annual inflows (GWh)
300400500600700800900
1000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
GWh
Average NZ demand
Average NZ inflows
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
Sources:
Meridian
92
Weather forecast
Predictability – short term.
Offer into electricity market
Quantified half-hourly rainfall and wind forecast
Inflow forecast
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
93
Southern Annular Mode •
Ring of climate variability that encircles the South
Pole and extends out to the latitudes of New Zealand
•
6-week cycle wet-dry
Predictability – medium term - cycles.
Waitaki
catchment
inflows
1978-99
vs
2000-2008
(
m3
x
106
)
Mean Mean±SE Mean±1.96*SE
1978-99
2000-2008
7200740076007800800082008400860088009000920094009600
Source: Niwa
Summer El Nino rainfall anomaly (%)
Summer La Nina rainfall anomaly (%)
Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index 1911-2016
El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) •
Periodical variation in winds and sea surface
temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean
•
2-5 year cycle
•
Significant impact on our inflows and wind
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)
•
Long term oscillation of the Pacific Ocean
•
20-year cycle
•
1977-99 was wet, 2000– now dry
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
94
•
Snowmelt contributes half of our summer inflows
in the Waitaki catchment
•
Difficult to measure in a mountainous catchment
•
Several high-altitude measurement sites
•
A snowpack simulation model estimates GWh
stored as snow
•
Useful in spring/summer inflow forecasting
Predictability – medium term – snow melt.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
95
The climate is changing
•
Glaciers are retreating
•
Seasonal snow is disappearing
•
Sea level has risen by 20cm in the past century
•
A 1 metre sea level rise is predicted to make 15 million
people in Bangladesh homeless
Predictability – long term climate change.
Image: Upsala glacier, Argentina
Image: Mt Hood, Washington
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
96
•
Warming trend at local climate stations
•
Snow and ice recession in our headwaters
Climate change - local changes.
1 deg C warming since 1930
Hermitage annual average temperature 1930-2017
Images: Glacial retreat at Mt Cook National Park – Tasman Glacier
Ice loss
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
97
•
Annual rainfall and inflow totals have not
changed significantly over the 90 years of record...
•
but the seasonality of our rainfall and inflows
has
changed significantly over the past 90
years
•
Autumns have become up to 20% drier over
time
•
Mid-summer has become slightly wetter
•
We have incorporated these changes into
our generation modelling and planning
Climate change – local changes.
Lake Pukaki weekly inflows long term averages 1929-72 vs 1973-2015
$"$
($"$
%$$"$%($"$&$$"$
&($"$
%# %# %# %#
%# %# %#
%# %#
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! %#
!
%*&*#%*)&
%*)'
#&$%(
%*&*#%*)&
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Older inflows
Recent inflows
Hermitage at Mt Cook February rainfall 1930-2017
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
98
Niwa take global climate model (GCM) projections and regionally downscale them to predict what climate changes we can expect in NZ
What can we expect in the future?
Source: Tait et al 2016, https://ofcnz.niwa.co.nz
2055
2090
About 1 - 1.5 degrees warmer everywhere
1 – 2.5 degrees warmer everywhere
Projected annual temperature changes in NZ by 2050 and 2090 under a “middle of the road” emissions scenario
Temperature changes
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
2055
99
Projected annual rainfall changes in NZ by 2050 and 2090 under a “middle of the road” emissions scenario
Rainfall changes – annual
5-15% wetter in our catchments
2090
10-20% wetter in our catchments
Wetter in the west and south, and drier in the east and north
Source: Tait et al 2016, https://ofcnz.niwa.co.nz
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
99
Rainfall changes – seasonal
Summer rainfall is projected to increase 5-15% in our catchment headwaters
Winter rainfall is projected to increase 15-25%
Source: Tait et al 2016, https://ofcnz.niwa.co.nz
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
100
2055
2055
101
Wind •
The frequency of extreme winds over New Zealand is
likely to;
•
Increase in almost all areas in winter
•
Decrease in summer
0.005.00
10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.00
7-Jan
17-Jan
27-Jan
6-Feb
16-Feb
26-Feb
8-Mar
18-Mar
28-Mar
7-Apr
17-Apr
27-Apr
7-May
17-May
27-May
6-Jun
16-Jun
26-Jun
6-Jul
16-Jul
26-Jul
5-Aug
15-Aug
25-Aug
4-Sep
14-Sep
24-Sep
4-Oct
14-Oct
24-Oct
3-Nov
13-Nov
23-Nov
3-Dec
13-Dec
23-Dec
GWh
Week ending
Long term average wind generation at Meridian wind farms
Heavy rainfall •
Larger heavy rainfall events are projected to occur in
NZ
•
Partly because of increased westerly winds (more and
stronger fronts)
•
And also because warmer air can carry more moisture
(about 8% more moisture for every 1 degC warming)
•
Studies suggest a 100-year return period peak river
flow in NZ will become a 20-year return period event by 2100 (Gluckman P.D 2013, Lawrence et al 2013)
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
102
Drought •
No change to drought frequency is predicted in our
catchments over the next 50 years
•
Approx. 10-12% more time in drought is predicted
for the East Coast of the South Island
•
An increase of 10% corresponds to about 35 more
days in drought per year, on average
•
This is likely to increase irrigation demand
Twi ze l
Source: Ministry for Primary Industries
New Zealand median drought change between 1980-99 and 2030-49
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
103
Snow •
Snow amounts are predicted to decrease and
snowlines rise under climate change
•
80-90% of current snow depths by 2040
•
50-80% of current snow depths by 2090
Source: Niwa
"*$*%*&*'*
#"*
#$*#%*#&*
*
+
+
Lake Pukaki inflows vs Hermitage rainfall: monthly totals as % of annual total
•
50% of Waitaki summer inflows = snow melt
•
So future inflows will be lower in summer and
higher in winter...
•
(but are predicted to be higher overall)
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
104
Summary of predicted changes in climate.
•
No significant change to hydro catchment rainfall
and inflows over the last 100 years, but...
•
Snowpack and glaciers getting smaller over time
•
Significant seasonal shifts in inflow regime
Projected to get:
•
Drier in current irrigation areas
•
Warmer everywhere
•
Windier at our wind farms, especially in winter
$"$
($"$
%$$"$%($"$&$$"$
&($"$
%# %# %# %#
%# %# %#
%# %#
%# %#
! %#
!
%*&*#%*)&
%*)'
#&$%(
%*&*#%*)&
%*)'#&$%(
Older inflows
Recent inflows
•
Better match between fuel and demand
•
Wetter in our catchments
We have seen:
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
105
These changes may result in:
•
Inflow regime better matching demand
•
Higher summer electricity demand (irrigation) and
lower winter demand (heating)
•
Higher lake levels generally, particularly at
Manapōuri
•
Bigger individual rain storms
•
More wind generation
Impacts on Meridian of predicted changes in climate.
Changes relative to our current operations: •
We already work with fuel variability
•
ENSO and the IPO move our inflow regime 10% to
the wet or dry already
•
We regularly reassess our probable maximum flood
estimate for dam safety already
2400260028003000320034003600380040004200440046004800500052005400560058006000
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
Annual inflow volume (m
3
x 10
6
)
13%
6%
Annual inflow volume (m
3
x 10
6
)
Lake Pūkaki annual inflow volume 1926-2013
Potential Manapouri lake levels 2017-18 with all historical inflows
Potential Manapouri lake levels 2017-18 with 40-100
th
%iles of historical inflows (proxy for 40% increase in inflows)
Manapōuri forecast lake levels under current inflows (top) and a projected 20% increase in rainfall (bottom)
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
Thank you.
Disclaimer.
The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian Energy with due care and attention. However, the information is supplied in summary form and is therefore not necessarily complete, and no representation is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. In addition, neither the company nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any other person shall have liability whatsoever to any person for any loss (including, without limitation, arising from any fault or negligence) arising from this presentation or any information supplied in connection with it. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections. These reflect Meridian’s current expectations, based on what it thinks are reasonable assumptions. Meridian gives no warranty or representation as to its future financial performance or any future matter. Except as required by law or NZX or ASX listing rules, Meridian is not obliged to update this presentation after its release, even if things change materially. This presentation does not constitute financial advice. Further, this presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian Energy securities and may not be relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian Energy securities.
This presentation contains a number of non-GAAP financial measures, including Energy Margin, EBITDAF, Underlying NPAT and gearing. Because they are not defined by GAAP or IFRS, Meridian's calculation of these measures may differ from similarly titled measures presented by other companies and they should not be considered in isolation from, or construed as an alternative to, other financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP. Although Meridian believes they provide useful information in measuring the financial performance and condition of Meridian's business, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these non-GAAP financial measures. The information contained in this presentation should be considered in conjunction with the company’s financial statements, which are included in Meridian’s integrated report for the year ended 30 June 2017 and is available at: All currency amounts are in New Zealand dollars unless stated otherwise.
Meridian Energy Limited Investor Day November 2017
107
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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