Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited logo

2017 Investor day presentation

Investor Presentation27 November 2017PCTReal Estate

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 1
Precinct Properties New Zealand

Investor Day

November 2017

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 2
Today we’re focussed on

■Our strategy –portfolio transformation

■Portfolio and market overview

■Hot topics

–Auckland CBD office performance

–Supplyconstraints

–Constructioncosts

–Economicrents

–Densityratios

–New Government

–Co working

■Developments

–Commercial Bay and Bowen Campus

–Future opportunities

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 3
Section 1

Strategy

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 4
Business and strategy overview

■Most recently reviewed in 2012, the strategy has

been continually refined since 1997 when the

company was first established

■Current strategy provides clear direction for the

Precinct team and shareholders

■May invest in other city centre real estate including

land, retail, hotels and value add properties where

profitability can be enhanced

■Ambition to control or own strategic city centre

precincts enabling us to create vibrant

environments

Precinct is a specialist city centre real estate investment company. It invests in high quality

strategically located city centre real estate.

Empowering

people

Operational

excellence

Developing the

future

Strategy focus

Principles of success

1.Concentrated ownership in

strategic locations

2.Quality client relationships

3.Investing in quality

4.A long-term view

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 5
Achieving strategy

20122017

Dedicatedstaff1455

PropertyfunctionsOut-sourcedIn-house

Client satisfaction64%72%

Staff engagement75%78%

Empowering people

20122017

Assetage21 years11 years

QualityA-gradePremium

WALT5.9 years9.0 years

Occupancy94%100%

Maint. CAPEX0.8%0.4%

NBS Score85%94%

Operational excellence

Developing the future

20122017

Acquisitions

Bowen Campus

DowntownShopping centre

HSBC House

Queen Elizabeth Square

Regeneration

Precincts

WynyardQuarter

Bowen Campus

Commercial Bay

Development

pipeline

$0$1.2billion

%of retail4.5%18%

1

AKLWeighting50%76%

Mixed use

projects

Commercial Bay

Wynyard Quarter

Partnerships

PanukuDevelopment Auckland

Generator, ATEED

1

includes Commercial Bay retail

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 6
■Earnings pathway maintained to 2021

■Forecast earnings growth expected to

provide CAGR of 3.5% between 2012 and

2021

■Significant quality shift occurring

contemporaneously

■Committed WALT now 9 years

Earnings pathway and quality shift

Earnings per share –Actual and pathway

Note: The graph presented above represents a hypothetical scenario only and should not

be considered a budget, plan or forecast. There is no certainty that earnings will

eventuate as illustrated.

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15FY 16FY 17FY 18FY 19FY 20FY 21

Earnings per share after tax

2014 pathway2016 pathwayCAGR

Actual EPSFY18 guidance

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

3.00

5.00

7.00

9.00

121314151617

Occupancy

WALT

Financial Year End

OccupancyWALT

Portfolio WALT and Occupancy

Weighted average portfolio age

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

20122013201420152016201720182019

HistoricForecast

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 7
Comparison to A-REITs

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 8
Section 2

Portfolio:

Market Overview

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 9
76 %

weighting (by value) to

Auckland (inc.developments)

9.0 years

Weighted average lease term

(incl. developments)

Portfolio overview

Key metrics

Portfolio metrics

Composition of revenue by

industry sector on completion

Lease expiry profile

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

WellingtonAuckland

Investment Portfolio

Developments on

completion

Investment

Including

Developments on

completion

Total Assets$1,535 m $1,174 m $2,709 m

% Wellington28%20%24%

WALT7.1 years 11.5 years 9.0 years

Occupancy100% 96%99%

Market Cap rate6.2% 5.6% 6.0%

NLA221,665 m² 95,600 m² 317,265 m²

5%

18%

23%

7%

32%

16%

Car Parks

Retail

New Zealand

Government

Legal

Financial Servies,

Banking and Insurance

Other

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 10
Page 10

Auckland

Portfolio

Stanbeth

Takutai

Coming soon

Mason Brothers

12 Madden

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 11
Auckland CBD

market

Midtown

2.7%

$365

6.9%

Core

6.0%

$485

6.2%

Britomart

0.0%

$480

6.8%

Commercial

Bay precinct

0.0%

$525

6.1%

Key:

Vacancy

Rents

Market yields

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 12
Auckland CBD

public

investment

Map Key:

Public investment

CRL / Light Rail

Public regeneration

CommercialBay

Aotea Station

Light Rail

Light

rail

City rail

link

Ferry Basin

Redevelopment

Bus

relocation

Bus

relocation

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 13
Map Key:

Office(potential supply)

Non office(Hotel/Other)

Public investment

CRL / Light Rail

Public regeneration

CommercialBay

Other CBD projects:

■Wynyard Quarter

■Americas cup

■Park Hyatt Hotel

■UOA Engineering

10-12 Commerce Street

$27,765,000 (November 2015)

1,388sqm / 36,700sqm (26:1)

$20,000psm

Required Average

Net Face Rent

$770psm

28 Shortland Street

$26,000,000 (April 2014)

2,010sqm / 26,000sqm (13:1)

$13,000psm

Required Average

Net Face Rent

$795psm

NZME Albert Street

(MansonsApproach)

$42m (Original purchase)

$9m cost net of divestment

3,124sqm / $2,800psm

Assuming 20,000 GFA

Net Face Rent

$670psm

Assumptions

▪Commercial Bay construction costs

escalated to 2017

▪Capitalisation rate of 6.0%

▪Return on Cost of 17.5%

▪Adopted MFAR or Consented FAR

Part NZME

Albert Street

$33,000,000

1,134sqm /

14,700sqm (13:1)

$29,000psm

1-3 Albert Street

$45,000,000

5% passing

Pacifica

57 levels,178 m

Customs Street

52 levels, 187m

NZICC

Park residence

Auckland CBD

private

investment

5-15 Albert Street

$49,000,000

2,200sqm

c.$22,000sqm

SO Hotel

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 14
Auckland CBD office market

Office Vacancy -Colliers

CBD office employee change 2011 to 2016

20.0%

20.5%

21.0%

21.5%

22.0%

22.5%

23.0%

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

CBD as a % of total region

Employee Count

CBD Office based employmentCBD % of Region

-1,000

-

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Media and Telco

Financial and Insurance Services

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate...

Professional Services

Administative Services

Government

Employee count

Total CBD office employment

Office net rental -Colliers

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 15
City centre drivers

■CBD market share of regional office employment

increasing

–CBD office employment grown by 12,000 people

(18%) since 2011

■Increase in CBD public transport patronage

–City rail link and new rail stations

–Rail patronage increased 224% in the last 10 years

■Strong and growing pedestrian counts

■CBD resident population has grown 6 times faster than

the rest of the city.

■Record hotel occupancy levels due to strong tourism

sector

–Daily rates have increased 13.3% year on year

■Since 2010, annual cruise ship passengers have more

than doubled to 250,000.

–Expected to grow to 350,000 in next two seasons

45,000

Inner city residents.15

years ahead of previous

projections

+17%

Increase patronage

adjacent to

Commercial Bay

Benefiting from city centre centralisation

5,000+

5 year increase in

number of professional

service employees in

CBD office

95,000

Net migration over the

past 3 years into

Auckland

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 16
■Auckland retail market is holding firm

–Growing population is bolstering demand for goods and services

■Vacancy rates remain tight

–Strip retail reducing to 3.3% June 2017 (4.8% 2016)

–Queen Street remained flat at 2.8%

–Strong tenant demand remains for prime retail space

■Average net face rentals have increased

1.8% over the past 12 months

–Low vacancy rates likely to keep rentals firm in prime locations

■CBD retail not expected to be materially impacted by online retail due to experiential offer and

high foot traffic

Auckland CBD retail market

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 17
■Visitor arrivals to New Zealand are expected to grow 4.8% p.a. to 2023

–Auckland Airports international passengers were up 6.8% over the past 12 months

–Auckland Airport’s second runway to be complete by 2025

–Auckland accounts for majority of tourism spend

■Demand for hotel space is growing faster than the supply

■Auckland hotel occupancy has hit record highs of 83%

–Driving growth in average daily rate

■According to Colliers, Auckland

market requires up to 4,300 new

hotel rooms by 2025 to meet

demand.

■Based on known forecast

supply, there is a shortfall of

up to 1,800 rooms.

■Hotel income outperformed

other property sectors post

GFC.

Indexed normalised rentals across sectors

Auckland Hotel market

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007200820092010201120122013201420152016

Prime CBD OfficePrime CBD Retail

Regional RetailIndustrial Prime Rents

Auckland RevPAR (5-star)

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 18
Page 18

Wellington

Portfolio

Bowen Campus

1 -3 The Terrace

Pastoral House

Mayfair House

Dimension Data

House

State Insurance

Tower

10 Brandon St

Bowen Campus

Balance Land

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 19
BNZ Harbour

Quay

Defence

House

Molesworth

Cinema

45,000m

2

demolish*

10 Brandon

St

Asteron

Life

111,000m

2

under inspection*

Revera

House

Stats NZ

building

1 Bowen

St

■Post quake, total office stock reduced by c.100,000m

2

reducing total stock to 1.4 million m

2

–City wide vacancy fell to 7.8% (Nov 16: 10.5%)

■Majority of stock withdrawals from A grade or better

–Prime vacancy reduced to 0.1% (from c.3%)

■Wellington Council required 80 building owners to undertake invasive seismic testing which is

ongoing

Wellington market

14 November 2017 New Zealand Herald

* CBRE March Earthquake Viewpoint

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 20
Wellington CBD office market

Office CBD vacancy -Colliers

Office gross rental -Colliers

■In the near term prime office space

will continue to be tight

■80,000m

2

currently under

construction

■Short term rental growth is

expected to slow following the

completion of new builds and

seismic refurbishments

■Supportive investment market

■Majestic Centre sold for $123

million at a 6.9% passing yield

■HSBC sold off market at 6.25%

passing

■Seismic remains a focus for

occupiers, insurers and investors

Section 3
Hot topics

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 22
■Some emerging concerns over future

CBD office market performance due to

supply pipeline

■Underlying market drivers remain strong

–Economic strength/activity

–Employment intentions

–Public / Private spend

■Supply pipeline continues to reduce

Auckland CBD office market

Historical forecast market yields

Historical forecast net face rents

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 23
Building cost escalation 2012-2017

$3,000/m²

$3,250/m²

$3,500/m²

$3,750/m²

$4,000/m²

$4,250/m²

$4,500/m²

New Buildi construction cost

Hot topic 1: Auckland supply outlook

■NZ non residential construction costs increased by

19% over previous 5 years

■QS pricing suggests Auckland costs have risen by

25% over the past 3-4 years

■Forecast construction cost inflation of 4.4% p.a.

through to 2021.

■Auckland building and infrastructure activity to

grow materially.

New Zealand Index

Source: RLB, Stats NZ and PCT estimates

International development feasibility comparison

Source: RLB, Colliers, Precinct estimates

$10,000 /m² $20,000 /m² $30,000 /m²

Wellington

Auckland

Perth

Brisbane

Melbourne

Sydney

New York

San Francisco

Construction CostOther (incl land & Incentives)Profit

Source: RLB International Report Q3 2017, Colliers

CBD Office H2 2017 and PCT estimates

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 24
1: Economic rents

■Strong investment market

–Continued strength in Auckland

–Strengthening in Wellington taking

advantage of yield spread

■Auckland cap rates are below peak

levels reached in 2007

–Spread to 10 year swap rate remains

above historic average

■Number of factors supporting rental

growth

–Historically low vacancy rates

–Continued growth in CBD employee

numbers

–Lack of forecast supply

■Strong building and construction

forecast

–Forecasting peak levels to be reached

by 2020 (3 years later than previously

forecast)

Historic cap rates

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

0102030405060708091011121314151617

Cap rate

Financial Year End

PortfolioAucklandWellington10 year swap rate

All building and construction nationally, by value

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 25
1:Economic rents (188 Quay St example)

■Land and buildings rates now above

peak levels (10 years later)

■Market rental levels remain below

peak

–17% below 2008 peak inflation adj.

levels (5% below nominal)

For a new tower to be feasible

i.e. Market effective = to economic rents

■Market rents need to increase

–Currently 14% below economic

rents

or

■Land and building rates need to

decrease

–Land value falls by 40% (to pre

2012 levels), or

–Construction costs fall by 19% (to

pre 2015 levels)

PWC land and building rates (psm)

PWC average tower rent (psm)

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$300 /m²

$400 /m²

$500 /m²

$600 /m²

$700 /m²

02030405060708091011121314151617

PwC Tower Market RentCompletion rent inflation adj.

PwC Tower Economic rent2008 peak inflation adj.

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 26
■While market rents are close to 2008 high

total occupancy costs are 15% lower

■Based on JLL rental and stock forecasts,

TOC per CBD employee are expected to

grow by1.2% p.a. over the next 5 years

–Below level of forecast inflation, and

–Indicates rental affordability. In 2022

rents are 9% below 2008 levels

■On floor efficiencies and improved

density. Majority of occupiers (govt and

private) have already made shift.

Hot topic 2: Density and TOC

Auckland TOC and Market NER

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

GovtPremiumA GradeB GradeC Grade

Area per office person

20102016

Auckland density –Historic and Forecast

NZ density benchmarking 2010-2016

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

Area per office person

PCT estimates based on JLL data (stock and vacancy) and stats NZ CBD

employment data

Colliers International and Crown Office Estate Report

Based on JLL data (stock, NER and vacancy

$100 /m²

$200 /m²

$300 /m²

$400 /m²

$500 /m²

$600 /m²

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

2003200420062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Market NER

Total Occupancy Cost per CBD employee

Projected TOC per CBD employee (PCT)TOC per CBD employee

A Grade CBD (JLL)Forecast A Grade (JLL)

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 27
Hot topic 3: Government impacts for Precinct

Policy DescriptionImpact on

construction

cost

Impact on

construction

capacity

Impact on

commercial

supply

Commercial

Investment

market

TaxPotential tax changes

including capital gains

tax

--

▼▼

KiwibuildCommitment to build

10,000 houses p.a. for

10 years

▲▼▼

-

Infrastructure

and transport

Commitment to

proceed on a number

of infrastructure projects

▲▼▼▲

ImmigrationReduce net

immigration

▲▼▼

-

OIO changesLimit foreign investment

--

▼▼

Minimum

Wage

Increase in minimum

wage


-

▼▼

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 28
Hot topic 3: Co-working investment

■Precinct have a 50% interest in

Generator;

–Co working

–Dedicated desks and/or small suites

–Event space

■Generator now manages 13,000m

2

across three locations

–Stanbeth

–GRID AKL Wynyard

–Takutai–Britomart (opens mid 2018)

■Generator provides businesses with

fewer employees high quality space and

service/amenity that they otherwise

couldn’t access

■Future opportunities driven by trends to

managed workplaces

■Provides pipeline of growth occupiers as

well as attractive financial returns

Factors driving growth

1.New business (startupsand new entrants)

2.Flexibility, ease and speed of setup

3.Corporate market using space as part of

real estate strategy

4.Lease accounting changes

5.Growth in Technology sector

6.Millennial workforce

Asia work population by generation

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 29
Hot topic 3: Co-working investment

No. of co-working spaces worldwideFactors driving multinationals’ use of third party space (CBRE)

0%20%40%60%

Access to new services &

amenities

Attract and retain talent

Acquire remote office spaces

Promote networking /

collaboration

Need a short term space solution

Promote innovation

Increase leasing flexibility

Reduce costs

APAC Multinationals’ current and planned use of third party space (CBRE)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

OverallServiced officesCo-working

space

Innovation

Centre

Business

incubator /

accelerator

% of respondents

CurrentPlanned (By 2020)

Co-working market forecast

to grow by 51% (by area)

by 2018

Section 4
Developments

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 31
Development Summary

Key development metrics20172016

DevelopmentPipeline$0.9 b$1.0 b

Totaldevelopment NLA96,825 sqm 109,827 sqm

Total office NLA76,397sqm89,542 sqm

Office leasedto date61,279 sqm 66,131 sqm

% of office leased80% 74%

% of total NLA leased70%64%

WALT committed to date13.2 years 13.1 years

Value on Completion$1,174 m $1,140 m

Weighting to Auckland80%80%

7.5%

Blended yield on cost

27%

Blended return on cost

70%

Pre-leased by NLA on office and retail

$160m

Un-recognised development profit

Strong occupier covenant (of leased market rental)

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 32
Commercial Bay

CommencementCurrentChange

Retail Pre-committed0%46%46%

Office Pre-committed52%66%14%

Total project cost$681m$685 m$4 m

Value onCompletion$853 m$941 m$88 m

Return on cost19.4%31.0%11.6%

■Value on completion of $941million

■$213m expected profit on

completion

■46%of retail space committed

■66% of office space committed

■Retail launch phased with two stage

opening

–c. 20% opening mid 2018

–Remainder opening in Q1 2019

Financial Metrics

$213M

of expected profit

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 33
Bowen Campus

■Crown leased the remaining 4 floors

of Bowen State building

■NZDF is approved to occupy the

Bowen State building

■MPI lead agency on Charles

Fergusson Tower

■Construction works are progressing

well

■Bowen State lease extended to 18

years

CommencementCurrentChange

Construction StartNovember2016

Expected CompletionEarly 2019

Total project cost$203m$203 m-

Value onCompletion$229 m$233 m*$4 m

Return on cost13%15%2%

Financial Metrics

100%

Leased

*Excluding the benefit of 100% occupancy and 18 year lease

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 34
Bowen Campus

■100% leased

■Bowen Campus WALT increased to

16.9 years (June 17: 15 years)

■Wellington portfolio WALT

increased to 11.2 years

■Annexcurrently being demolished

Remaining RFP assets

■No.3 The Terrace commencing as

planned in May 2018

■MayfairHouse works are expected

to start mid 2019 coinciding with

the completion of No. 3 The

Terrace

■PastoralHouse redevelopment

commencement date shifted to

December 2018

Wellington RFP update

Section 5
Future

Developments

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 36
1 Queen

1 Queen

2019 +

Expected project start

$160 million

Estimated incremental

project spend

Office or

Mixed use

Proposed use

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 37
■Discussions on-going with

preferred hotel operator

■Likely mixed use

–Hotel with office above

■Supports Commercial Bay

retail

–Particularly food and

beverage

1 Queen

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 38
Wynyard Quarter

2020 +

Expected project start

$150 million

Estimated incremental

project spend

Office

Proposed use

■3 remaining sites

■c.30,000sqm of GFA to be developed

■In discussion with occupiers for stage 2 (site 5b)

■Target to commit Stage 2 within the next 6-12

months

■Timing determined by:

–Strength of occupier market (supply)

–Growth of Innovation Precinct (future

stages)

2018 +

Expected project start

$60 million

Estimated incremental

project spend

Office

Proposed use

Artist impression of Site 6

Above: Artist impression of Site 5B

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 39
Bowen balance land

2018 +

Expected project start

$150 million

Estimated incremental

project spend

Office

Potential use

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 40
10 Brandon Street

■A number of options for the building have been explored to

date:

–Strengthen existing

–Strengthen with façade upgrade

–Full office redevelopment

–Student accommodation

–Apartments

–Office/Apartment hybrid

■Preferred option expected to be finalised by February 2018

Full redevelopmentOffice/Apartment hybridStudent accommodation

PRECINCT PROPERTIES, INVESTOR DAY-Page 41
■Precinct has a clear strategy to provide long term outperformance

■Strategy provides certainty for:

–Investors

–Staff

–Market

■Strategy retains focus on city centre real estate

■Precinct continuing to be well positioned with supportive market

Conclusion

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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