Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update February 2018 (Amended)

Operational Update9 March 2018FCGConsumer Staples

1
GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

FEBRUARY 2018

KEY DATES

21 March 2018

FY18 Interim Results

Announcement

Late May 2018

Q3 Business Update

Announcement

1 June 2018

Measurement Date for Share

Standard 2018/19 Season

September 2018

FY18 Annual Results

Announcement

• Continued strong import demand for

dairy in China. Latin America and Asia

imports decrease.

• Exports from New Zealand, the US and

Australia up for the month. Further growth in

dairy exports from the EU.

• New Zealand production impacted by

difficult weather conditions. Production

increases for Australia and the EU.

• In January, Fonterra New Zealand milk

collection decreased 8% to 158 million

kgMS and Fonterra Australia milk collection

increased 32% to 14 million kgMS.

• Fonterra and The a2 Milk

Company form comprehensive

strategic relationship.

• New operators on board to

meet rising global demand

for cream cheese.

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To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

CONTINUED STRONG

IMPORT DEMAND

FOR DAIRY IN CHINA.

LATIN  AMERICA, AND ASIA

IMPORTS DECREASE

Latin America’s dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

7%, or 12,000 MT, in October

compared to the same

month last year. This decline

was due to WMP, cheese

and AMF, down a combined

40%, or 22,000 MT, this

month. This was offset by

SMP and whey powder, up a

combined 23%, or 9,000  MT.

For the 12 months to

October, imports were up

5%, or 90,000 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year. This was

driven by growth in all major

categories except from WMP

and infant formula which

were down a combined

55,000  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 6%, or 22,000  MT,

in October compared to the

same month the previous

year. This was driven by

imports of SMP and fluid and

fresh dairy down a combined

15%, slightly offset by WMP,

up 7,000  MT.

For the 12 months to

October, imports were

up 4%, or 177,000  MT,

compared to the same

period last year.

Cheese, SMP and ice cream

grew by 130,000  MT,

accounting for around 70%

of the growth compared to

the same period last year.

Middle East and Africa

dairy imports¹ in October

decreased 3%, or 11,000  MT,

compared to the same

month the previous year. This

was mainly due to a decline

across the top three import

categories, WMP, SMP and

fluid and fresh dairy, down

a combined 13,000  MT,

partially offset by a 7%

increase in cheese imports.

Imports for the 12 months

to October were down 1%,

or 47,000 MT. Combined

declines in butter and WMP

of 10%, or 106,000  MT,

dampened large gains in

fluid and fresh dairy and

SMP of 80,000 MT and

36,000 MT respectively.

China dairy imports

increased 7%, or 13,000  MT,

in December compared to

the same month last year.

Large gains were seen in fluid

and fresh dairy, whey powder

and infant formula up 28%,

19% and 21% respectively.

Imports for the 12 months

to December were up

299,000 MT, compared

to the same period last

year. China continues their

strong imports, with all key

categories up for the period.

Infant formula, SMP and

fluid and fresh dairy imports

all grew significantly, up

77,000 MT, 63,000 MT and

52,000 MT respectively.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

Import change for the 12

months to December 2017

Import change for the 12

months to October 2017

Import change for the 12

months to October 2017

Import change for the 12

months to October 2017

413

1

5

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported import data.

%%%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

EXPORTS FROM

NEW  ZEALAND, THE US

AND AUSTRALIA UP FOR

THE  MONTH. FURTHER

GROWTH IN DAIRY EXPORTS

FROM THE  EU

Total New Zealand dairy

exports in December

increased 8%, or 31,000  MT,

compared to the same

month last year. This growth

was driven by WMP, SMP

and butter, up a combined

33,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

December were down 3%, or

83,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Exports

declined across the majority

of categories except fluid

and fresh dairy and infant

formula, which were up a

combined 81,000 MT. SMP

and AMF showed the largest

decline, down a combined

103,000 MT on the previous

comparable period .

EU dairy exports in

November were up 11%,

or 44,000 MT, relative

to the same month the

previous year. This was due

to double-digit growth in

most export categories,

especially SMP and fluid and

fresh dairy, which increased

by a combined 20%, or

33,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

November were up 5%, or

242,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Cheese, SMP and

infant formula made up

292,000 MT of the increase,

offset by a combined decline

of 61,000 MT in butter and

fluid and fresh dairy.

US dairy exports increased

11% in December, or

21,000 MT, compared to the

same month the previous

year. This was driven by SMP,

lactose and whey powder

up a combined 20% or

22,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

December were up 5%, or

110,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period. The

increase in exports continues

to be driven by cheese and

whey powder up a combined

97,000 MT. The largest

export category in the US,

SMP, grew 15,000 MT or 3%,

compared to the previous

comparable period.

Australia dairy exports

increased 10%, or 7,000  MT,

in December compared to

the same month last year.

Predominantly driven by

fluid and fresh dairy and

cheese which were up a

combined 11, 000 MT. These

gains were partially offset by

SMP and whey powder down

a combined 4,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to December were down

1%, or 6,000 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

Momentum in fluid and fresh

dairy, infant formula and

cheese exports remained

strong, up 44,000  MT.

This was partially offset

by declines in WMP, whey

powder and butter down a

combined 35,000  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

51

3

5

Export change for the 12

months to December 2017

Export change for the 12

months to December 2017

Export change for the 12

months to December 2017

Export change for the 12

months to November 2017

%%%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

NEW ZEALAND

PRODUCTION IMPACTED

BY DIFFICULT WEATHER

CONDITIONS. PRODUCTION

INCREASES FOR AUSTRALIA

AND THE EU

Total New Zealand milk

production in January was

down 5% compared to the

same month last year. Although

rain in late December and early

January helped in some regions,

other regions were heavily

impacted by soil moisture and

pasture growth challenges

caused by difficult weather

conditions. This has impacted

overall collection volumes

throughout New Zealand.

Fonterra collections have been

reported for January, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk production

in January increased 4%

compared to the same month

last year due to favourable

seasonal conditions across milk

collection regions.

Production for the 12 months

to January was flat compared to

the same period the previous

year due to better conditions.

Fonterra collections in Australia

have been reported for January,

see page 5 for details.

EU milk production increased

1% in December compared

to the same month last

year, driven by strong global

dairy prices.

Germany, the UK and Austria

had the largest increases in

production, up 3%, 5% and 28%

respectively in December.

Production for the 12 months to

December declined 1%, on the

back of a decrease across four

of the top five EU producers,

down 3%. This was partially

offset by Ireland increasing

production by 10%.

US milk production in

December increased 1%

compared to the same

month last year largely due to

increased productivity. Milk

production per cow across all

23 major states was the highest

recorded for the month of

December since 2003¹.

Milk production for the

12 months to December

increased 1% compared to the

same period the previous year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

Production change

for the 12 months to

January 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

January 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

December 2017

Production change


for the 12 months to

December 2017

1011

1 https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Todays_Reports/reports/mkpr0118.pdf

%%%%
To view a table that shows our

detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2017/18 SEASON

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

Decrease for the season

from 1 June to 31 January

Decrease for the season

from 1 June to 31 January

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 January

Increase for the season from

1 July to 31 January

320

27

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk

collection across

Australia for the seven

months to 31 January

reached 100 million

kgMS, 21 million kgMS

higher than last season.

Collections in January

totalled 14 million kgMS, a

32% increase on the same

month last year. This has

been driven by increased

market share and favourable

seasonal conditions across

milk collection regions.

North Island milk

collection in January

reached 90 million kgMS,

11% down on January

last season.

After a dry, hot period

through December and early

January, milk collections

were very low at the start of

January. While collections

recovered part way through

the month due to heavy rain,

the recovery was not enough

to bring the volumes back to

last season’s levels.

South Island milk

collection in January

reached 69 million kgMS, 5%

down on January last season.

Fonterra’s milk

collection across

New Zealand for

the eight months to

31 January reached

1,036 million kgMS, 2%

below the same period

last season.

January collections reached

158 million kgMS, down

8% compared to the same

period last year. This is

largely due to the difficult

weather conditions which

impacted soil moisture and

pasture quality.

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To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

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6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

MAR DEC MAY

JUL

OCT

DEC

MAR MAY JUL OCT MAR






,

,

. 

.

.


.



.


PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBALDAIRYTRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

appreciated through January

on the back of broad-based

weakness in the US dollar.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

6 March 2018:

The next trading event will be held on 20 March 2018. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

1.1

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,704

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

18.0

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 2,181/MT

12.8

SMP

USD 5,128/MT

3.0

RENNET CASEIN

USD 3,759/MT

2.0

CHEDDAR

USD 3,232/MT

0.4

WMP

USD 5,280/MT

1.0

BUTTER

USD 6,245/MT

3.3

AMF

18,088

MT

LATEST AUCTION

430,840

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
FONTERRA AND THE A2 MILK

COMPANY FORM COMPREHENSIVE

STRATEGIC  RELATIONSHIP

Fonterra Co-operative

Group Limited (Fonterra)

and The a2 Milk Company

(a2MC) entered into a

comprehensive strategic

relationship.

As part of the partnership,

Fonterra will now begin

conversations with its

farmers to source an A2

milk pool for a2MC products

in New Zealand, which is

intended to significantly

expand over time to help

meet the growing demand

for a2MC products. A similar

milk pool in Australia will

also be developed.

Announcing the deal,

Fonterra CEO Theo Spierings

and a2MC Managing

Director and CEO

Geoffrey Babidge said the

partnership is designed to

generate returns for both

companies by growing

demand in both local and

international markets for

products using a2MC’s brand

strength and capabilities.

“The partnership is intended

to fast-track market growth

and this creates opportunity

for our farmers to create

additional value from their

milk,” said Mr Spierings.

“Fonterra’s high-quality milk

pools, our global supply

chain, our manufacturing

capabilities and knowledge,

and our in-market sales

and distribution expertise

is being combined with

a2MC’s brand strength to

unlock new opportunities

in a wide range of

international markets.

“We continue to see a

strong future for dairy based

on our existing range of

products, including recent

additions such as organic,

low-lactose and high protein

milk choices that consumers

seek out for a premium. The

a2MC products promoted

by this partnership sit well

within our overall portfolio

of products.

“Consumers like to have

choices and the growth of

a2MC-branded nutritional

powders and fresh milk sales

in Australia, for example,

shows the potential. This

partnership is all about

finding ways to continue to

delight our consumers and

generate more value for

our farmers.”

OUR PERFORMANCE

New operators on
board to meet rising

global demand for

cream cheese

With our global cream

cheese sales up 24% on

last year and demand

still increasing, Fonterra’s

Darfield site has welcomed

16 new employees who will

operate the first of its two

new cream cheese plants.

The site is bringing on

employees as part of a

capability and development

programme that will build

the team at Darfield to

ensure good performance

when the new plant goes

into operation in August.

The employees have been

brought on early to receive

extensive training due to the

new plant incorporating one

of the most advanced lines in

the world.

Director of Global

Foodservice, Grant Watson

says that Fonterra-first

technology will allow

for the firmness and

consistency of the cream

cheese they produce to

be dialled up or down to

meet both the needs of

chefs and deliver against

consumer preferences.

“This will mean that the

Co-operative is well placed

to meet consumer demand,

particularly in Asia where

cream cheese is undergoing

a surge in popularity,” says

Mr Watson.

“Dairy beverages such as tea

macchiato – which mixes

tea with cream and cream

cheese – demonstrate the

remarkable versatility of

dairy in markets like China.”

Acting Site Operations

Manager, Shane Taylor says

that the first Darfield plant

is on track to be completed

in the next six months with

the second to follow within

two-to-three years.

“When both lines are in

place, we will be able to

produce up to 48,000 MT

of cream cheese each year,

making our site one of the

largest producers of cream

cheese in New Zealand,” says

Mr Taylor.

“We are building and

training our teams who

will prepare the first

plant for commissioning

and transition to normal

operations. These teams will

be instrumental in setting

the plant up for the future”.

One of our new employees,

John Cordon, was running

a printing press in

Christchurch prior to joining.

“There is a lot of cross-over

on the manufacturing and

machine operating side

of things.”

“However the new job is

head and shoulders more

high-tech. The machinery

is world-leading spanking

new machinery and the

opportunity to work in a

brand new plant is exciting.”

“There is so much learning

going on. Nine of us have

been working in the dairy

industry; the rest are new

to the industry, and that

includes me. We are going

to spend a day on a dairy

farm, and go out with a

milk tanker.”

“We have a little village

next to the plant, so we see

the construction as it goes

on day-by-day, it makes us

feel involved.”

Selwyn District Mayor,

Sam Broughton says that

people are optimistic about

the growing population of

the district.

“The Darfield site has

continued to provide

employment throughout the

construction phase, and now

there are these long-term

jobs at the plant.”

“It’s great that there are

training opportunities for

people in new areas and

career paths. It enables them

to bring up their families

here amongst the fresh air

and lakes, and enjoy the

lifestyle that Selwyn has

to offer.”

Business Relationship

Manager, Justin Tipa gave a

Mihi Whakatau to welcome

the new starters to the

site, followed by a blessing

of the capability and

development programme.

8

OUR CO-OP

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

NOV JUN MAY APR FEB JAN DEC AUG OCT SEP JUL MAR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES









,



EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG APR 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUN MAY MAR FEB NOV DEC JAN AUG OCT SEP APR JUL 

MT s













AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East and Africa and Latin America to October, China to December.

NOTE: Data for EU to November; New Zealand, US and Australia to December.

NOTE: Data for EU and US to December, New Zealand and Australia to January.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
MAR

FEB

NOV

OCT

DEC

JUN

JUL

APR

AUG

JAN

SEP

MAY

,
,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JANUARY

2018

JANUARY


2017

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2016/17

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

158.3172.5(8.3%)1,035.81,053.6(1.7%)

North Island89.7100.6(10.9%)636.1653.7(2.7%)

South Island68.671. 9(4.6%)399.8399.90.0%

Fonterra Australia13.910.532.4%100.078.527.4%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(6 MARCH 2018)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2017)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

18,088430,840

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(16.8%)7.9%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,7043,292

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

22.2%3.2%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(1.1%)–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

GlobalDairyTrade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.


GLOSSARY

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time

Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.

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