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Global Dairy Update April 2018

Operational Update1 May 2018FSFConsumer Staples

1
GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

APRIL 2018

KEY DATES

Late May 2018

Q3 Business Update

Announcement

1 June 2018

Measurement Date for Share

Standard 2018/19 Season

September 2018

FY18 Annual Results

Announcement

1 December 2018

Compliance Date for Share

Standard 2018/19 Season

• Import demand for dairy softened across all

regions for the month. China imports down

for the first time since May last year.

• Continued steady export growth from the

EU and the US. New Zealand and Australia

exports up for the month.

• New Zealand production flat for the last

twelve months. Increased production from

the EU continues.

• In March, Fonterra New Zealand milk

collection was down 3% to 143 million kgMS,

and Fonterra Australia collection was up

32% to 11 million kgMS compared to March

last year.

• Anchor brand expands with return of Anchor cheese.

• Farmers see state of the art plant first hand.

• Co-op farmers dominate New Zealand Dairy Industry Awards.

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To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

IMPORT DEMAND FOR

DAIRY SOFTENED ACROSS

ALL REGIONS FOR

THE  MONTH. CHINA IMPORTS

DOWN FOR  THE FIRST TIME

SINCE MAY LAST YEAR

Latin America’s dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

10% or 16,000 MT in

December compared to the

same month the previous

year. This decline was driven

by cheese, AMF, fluid and

fresh dairy and WMP which

were down a combined 20%

or 17,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to December were up 1%

or 16,000 MT. While WMP

and cheese imports were

down 86,000 MT, or 13%,

this was more than offset

by increases in most other

categories in particular SMP

and whey powder.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 6% or 22,000 MT

compared to December last

year. This was largely due to

a 23%, or 20,000 MT, decline

in SMP.

Imports for the 12 months

to December were up 1%,

or 31,000 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year.

This was primarily driven

by growth in cheese, and

WMP imports, up 7%

or 80,000 MT, partially

offset by declines in SMP,

whey powder and infant

formula, down a combined

58,000  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy imports¹ in December

decreased 1%, or 3,000  MT,

compared to the same

month the previous year.

This was mainly due to a

decline in fluid and fresh

dairy, down 20,000  MT,

partially offset by a

combined 16,000 MT

increase in WMP and

butter imports.

Imports for the 12 months

to December were down

2%, or 72,000 MT. Declines

were seen across most of

the key import categories

except fluid and fresh dairy

and SMP which were up a

combined 4%, or 63,000 MT

for the period.

China dairy imports were

down 10% or 21,000 MT

in February compared to

the same month last year,

on the back of declines in

WMP, fluid and fresh dairy

and cheese.

February imports were down

following the significant

increase in January, as

the market is believed to

have retained some of the

additional product imported

in January.

Imports for the 12 months

to February were up 16%, or

374,000 MT, compared to

the same period last year,

with growth seen across all

categories apart from casein

and lactose, which were

down a combined 1,400  MT.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

Import change for the 12

months to February 2018

Import change for the 12

months to December 2017

Import change for the 12

months to December 2017

Import change for the 12

months to December 2017

116

2

1

1 Estimates are included for those

countries that have not reported data.

%%%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

CON

TINUED STEADY

E

XPORT GROWTH FROM

THE

EU AND THE US.

NEW ZEALAND AND

AUSTRALIA EXPORTS UP FOR

THE MONTH

Total New Zealand

dairy exports in February

increased 4%, or 11,000  MT,

compared to the same

month last year.

Growth was again driven

by WMP and fluid and fresh

dairy, up a combined 12%, or

16,000 MT, for the month,

slightly offset by declines in

cheese, lactose and AMF.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were flat on the

previous comparable period.

While there has been a

substantial increase in

exports of fluid and fresh

dairy and WMP, two of the

largest export categories,

which were up a combined

117,000 MT, or 7%, this was

offset by declines across

most other categories.

EU dairy exports in

January increased by 10%, or

39,000 MT, compared to the

same month last year.

Exports grew for all

categories except WMP

and caseinate, which were

down a combined 9,000  MT.

Growth was primarily driven

by fluid and fresh dairy,

infant formula and whey

powder, up a combined

33,000 MT, or 19%.

Exports for the 12 months

to January were up 6%, or

323,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Exports

grew in most of the key

categories, in particular SMP

which grew 213,000  MT,

or 37%, and infant formula

which grew 74,000  MT,

or 15%.

US dairy exports in

February increased by 18%,

or 31,000 MT, compared to

the same month last year.

There were increases across

all but three of the export

categories this month. SMP,

lactose and whey powder led

the increase, up a combined

23,000 MT, or 22%.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were up 6%, or

126,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Increases were seen across

most export categories,

in particular cheese, whey

powder and SMP, which were

up a combined 116,000  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased 16%, or 9,000  MT,

in February compared to the

same month the previous

year. This was largely driven

by exports of SMP, fluid and

fresh dairy and WMP, up a

combined 27%, or 9,000  MT,

compared to the same

month last year.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were flat on the

previous comparable period.

There were increased

exports of fluid and fresh

dairy and infant formula, up

38,000 MT and 7,000 MT

respectively, however most

other export categories

including WMP, whey

powder and butter, declined

for the period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

60

0

6

Export change for the 12

months to February 2018

Export change for the 12

months to February 2018

Export change for the 12

months to February 2018

Export change for the 12

months to January 2018

%%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

NEW ZEALAND

PRODUCTION FLAT FOR

THE LAST TWELVE MONTHS.

INCREASED PRODUCTION

FROM THE EU  CONTINUES

Total New Zealand milk

production in March was

down 1% compared to the

same month last year.

Although weather conditions

across most of the country

have shown signs of

improvement in recent weeks,

overall production is down

compared to March last year.

For the 12 months to March,

milk production was flat

compared to the same period

the previous year.

Fonterra collections have been

reported for March, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk production

in February increased 2%

compared to the same month

last year, largely due to

favourable weather conditions.

Production for the 12 months to

February was up 1% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

Milk production growth

continues to be steady,

particularly in south east

Australia, where improved

seasonal conditions and

cost efficiencies have

increased production.

Fonterra collections in Australia

have been reported for March,

see page 5 for details.

EU milk production in

February was up 3% compared

to the same month last year.

Production increased across

most of the EU in February,

with the United Kingdom,

Ireland, Poland and Italy

showing the most growth, up

a combined 2%. Growth in the

EU is primarily due to increased

spring production.

Production for the 12 months to

February was up 3% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

US milk production in

February increased 2%

compared to the same month

last year.

The increase in production

continues to be driven by larger

herd numbers and improved

production per cow.

Milk production for the

12 months to February

increased by 2% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

Production change

for the 12 months to

February 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

March 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

February 2018

Production change


for the 12 months to

February 2018

0123

%

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To view a table that shows our

detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2017/18 SEASON

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

Decrease for the season

from 1 June to 31 March

Decrease for the season

from 1 June to 31 March

Decrease for the season

from 1 June to 31 March

Increase for the season from

1 July to 31 March

321

26

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk collection

across Australia in March

reached 11 million kgMS,

3 million kgMS higher than

March last season.

The increase in March is

due to a combination of

increased milk supply to

Fonterra and favourable

seasonal conditions

supporting production

growth from new and

existing Fonterra suppliers.

North Island milk

collection in March reached

79 million kgMS, 6% down

on March last season.

South Island milk

collection in March reached

64 million kgMS, 1% above

March last season.

Fonterra’s milk collection

across New Zealand

was 143 million kgMS in

March, 3% behind March

last season.

While some northern regions

had higher collections this

month, overall production is

down relative to the strong late

season production last year.

For the ten months to 31 March,

milk collection was 1,314 million

kgMS, 2% behind last

season. The difficult weather

experienced this season has

contributed to the decline.

Decrease of 2%

on last season

1,500M

KGMS

As we near the end of the

season, milk supply trends over

recent months mean that our

latest full season milk collection

volumes are now forecast to be

2% lower than last season.

This is an improvement from

our previous forecast of

1,480 million kgMS.

Forecast Fonterra

Milk Collection Across

New Zealand

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To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

%

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

APR  FEB 

JUN 

SEP 

NOV 

FEB APR JUN  SEP  NOV  APR 






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,

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PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBALDAIRYTRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

tracked sideways against the

US dollar through March,

despite renewed volatility in

the wider financial market.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

17 April 2018:

The next trading event will be held on 1 May 2018. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

2.9

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,701

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

18.1

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 6,120/MT

5.4

AMF

USD 3,855/MT

4.8

CHEDDAR

USD 5,654/MT

2.9

BUTTER

USD 1,947/MT

2.8

SMP

USD 5,792/MT

2.2

RENNET CASEIN

USD 3,311/MT

1.0

WMP

18,147

MT

LATEST AUCTION

482,681

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
OUR PERFORMANCE

Anchor brand grows

bigger with launch of

Anchor cheese

Fonterra’s iconic Anchor™

brand is about to get bigger

with the return of Anchor™

cheese – and this time

there’s a guaranteed lactose

free option.

For years milk, butter and

yoghurt have all been part

of the Anchor™ range

and Fonterra Brands

New Zealand Director of

Marketing, Clare Morgan,

says the addition of

cheese continues Anchor’s

tradition of a love of dairy

and innovation.

“When pioneer Henry

Reynolds launched Anchor™

in 1886 he would have never

imagined that over a century

later more than 150 Anchor™

products would be sold

every minute.”

As well as the traditional

Tasty, Colby and Edam, there

are two new additions –

Protein+ and Zero Lacto.

“We’re excited to see our

Anchor™ cheese in the

fridges. It’s giving Kiwis back

one of the most trusted

and liked cheese brands in

the country.

“While most hard cheese is

naturally low in lactose, Zero

Lacto is the first lactose free

cheese to be launched in

New Zealand.

“It’s been introduced as an

additional option for Kiwis

with lactose intolerance and

is batch tested to ensure

there is no lactose, providing

a guaranteed lactose free

cheese option.”

Protein+ has 26% more

protein than Anchor™

Tasty and is an easy way for

Kiwis to increase protein in

their diets.

These new cheeses join

the list of more than 160

Anchor™ products that are

today shared in more than

80 countries around the

world, a demonstration of

what pure New Zealand dairy

coupled with enthusiasm

and innovation can achieve.

Farmers see state of the

art plant first hand

A group of our farmers

have visited the new

Apollo plant in Whakatu to

see how Fonterra Brands

New Zealand (FBNZ) has

teamed up with the Hawke’s

Bay company to use state of

the art technology to bring

some of the best in fruit and

dairy beverages to Kiwis.

FBNZ has teamed up with

Apollo Foods to install

innovative beverage filling

technology, which allows a

range of different containers

to be produced on site

and filled with a range of

different products on one

production line.

Managing Director of FBNZ

Leon Clement said a global

surge in demand for dairy

and fruit beverages presents

a fantastic opportunity

to capitalise on the

increasing popularity for

lifestyle beverages.

The new plant allows

FBNZ to extend the shelf

life of products, including

Mammoth flavoured milk,

which was first off the line.

Until now the milk has had a

shelf life of 10 days, but now

the UHT beverage has a life

of up to six months.

This means stores in all parts

of the country will have

product on hand to keep

the fridges stocked. The new

formulation Mammoth also

has 40% less sugar.

As well as Mammoth and

Primo flavoured milk, new

products will be launched

later this year.

8
OUR CO-OP

Co-op farmers dominate

New Zealand Dairy

Industry Awards

Co-op farmers have once

again enjoyed great success

in this year’s New Zealand

Dairy Industry Awards

(NZDIAs) with Fonterra

suppliers winning 29 of the

33 regional titles.

The winners of the three

categories – Share Farmer of

the Year, Dairy Manager of

the Year and Dairy Trainee

of the Year – across the 11

regions will now be assessed

by a national judging panel

and the national titles will

be awarded at a black-tie

dinner at Stadium Southland

in Invercargill on May 12.

Tickets to the dinner can be

purchased online at www.

dairyindustryawards.co.nz.

Fonterra farmers have won

all three national titles for

two consecutive years and

are in with a great chance of

a hat trick.

Nine regional Share Farmer

winners are Co-op suppliers

with nine Dairy Trainee of

the Year winners and all 11

Dairy Manager of the Year

finalists working on farms

that supply milk to Fonterra.

A new award to recognise

dairy farmers who

demonstrate leadership in

their approach to sustainable

dairying will also be

presented at the National

Final awards dinner in May.

The Fonterra Farm Source

Responsible Dairying Award

will recognise those dairy

farmers who are respected

by their farming peers and

their community for their

attitude to and role in

sustainable dairying. The

farmer could come from

any of New Zealand’s milk

suppliers to be eligible for

the award. The inaugural

winner will be selected

by a panel of judges and

announced at the National

Final awards dinner.

Fonterra Farm Source is a

major sponsor of the NZ

Dairy Industry Awards, along

with Westpac, DairyNZ,

Delaval, Ecolab, Federated

Farmers, Honda Motorcycles,

LIC, Meridian Energy and

Ravensdown along with

industry partner Primary ITO.

THE FONTERRA FINALISTS ARE:

Share Farmer of the Year:

• Thomas & Jennifer Read (Hawke’s Bay/Wairarapa)

• Owen Clegg & Hollie Wham (Taranaki)

• Dan & Gina Duncan (Northland)

• Chris & Sally Guy (Auckland/Hauraki)

• Steve Gillies & Amy Johnson (Waikato)

• Reece & Natasha Cox (Bay of Plenty)

• Tim & Melissa Parsons (Central Plateau)

• Simon & Hilary Vallely (Otago/Southland)

• Daniel & Paula McAtamney (Canterbury/North Otago)

Dairy Manager of the Year:

• Angela Strawbridge (Manawatu)

• Gerard Boerjan (Hawke’s Bay/Wairarapa)

• James Holgate (Taranaki)

• Sam Moscrip (Northland)

• Terence Potter (Auckland/Hauraki)

• Chelsea Smith (Waikato)

• Bridie Virbickas (Bay of Plenty)

• Colin Tremain (Central Plateau)

• Jaime McCrostie (Otago/Southland)

• Will Green (Canterbury/North Otago)

• Anthony Lamborn (West Coast/Top of South)

Dairy Trainee of the Year:

• Brock Cumming (Hawke’s Bay/Wairarapa)

• Samuel White (Manawatu)

• Andrew Trolove (Taranaki)

• Eden Ritchie (Northland)

• Quinn Youngman (Auckland/Hauraki)

• Zoe Gleeson (Bay of Plenty)

• Aaron Courage (Waikato)

• Salem Christian (Canterbury/North Otago)

• Sam Goffriller (West Coast/Top of the South)

HAWKE’S BAY WAIRARAPA WINNERS

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES









,





EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s













AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East and Africa and Latin America to December; China to February.

NOTE: Data for EU to January; New Zealand, US and Australia to February.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to February; New Zealand to March.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
MAR

FEB

NOV

OCT

DEC

JUN

JUL

APR

AUG

JAN

SEP

MAY



,

,
,

,

,

, 

,



,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

MARCH

2018

MARCH


2017

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2016/17

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

142.6147.0(3.0%)1,313.81,341.6(2.1%)

North Island79.184.0(5.8%)791.9816.7(3.0%)

South Island63.563.00.8%521.9524.9(0.6%)

Fonterra Australia11. 38.631.8%120.595.626.0%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(17 APRIL 2018)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2017)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

18, 147482,681

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(15.2%)3.9%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,7013,335

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

16.1%4.9%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

2.9%–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

GlobalDairyTrade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.


GLOSSARY

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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