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Global Dairy Update June 2018

Operational Update3 July 2018FCGConsumer Staples

1
GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

JUNE 2018

KEY DATES

Late September 2018

FY18 Annual Results

Announcement

12 November 2018

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

1 December 2018

Compliance Date for Share

Standard 2018/19 Season

December 2018

FY19 Q1 Business Update

• New Zealand production up 6% in May

compared to previous year. Australia, Europe

and the US also up low single-digit.

• US, New Zealand and Australian exports

show double-digit growth for the month.

European exports remain on the rise.

• Latin America, Asia and China show steady

import growth. Growth in Middle East and

Africa accelerates in February.

• Fonterra's New Zealand milk collection

for the season ended 31 May 2018 was

1,505 million kgMS, down 1% on last season.

• Forecast Fonterra milk collection in

New Zealand for the 2018/19 season is

1,525 million kgMS, up 1.3% on 2017/18.

• Fonterra is bringing its dairy goodness to online consumers

in Southeast Asia for the first time through a new partnership

with Lazada, the leading online shopping destination in

the region.

• It’s an oldie but a goodie – Tip Top’s Boysenberry Ripple has

taken out the supreme award at the New Zealand Ice Cream

awards for the fourth time.

• Minimum shareholding requirement for farmer shareholders.

• Climate change ambassadors to show the way.

%%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

NEW  ZEALAND

PRODUCTION UP 6%

IN MAY COMPARED TO

PREVIOUS YEAR. AUSTRALIA,

EUROPE AND THE US ALSO UP

LOW SINGLE-DIGIT

Total New Zealand milk

production increased 6%

in May compared to the

same period last year on the

back of favourable autumn

weather conditions in both

the North and South Island.

For the 12 months to May,

milk production was flat

compared to the same

period last year.

Fonterra collections have

been reported for May, see

page 5 for details.

Australia milk production

increased 4% in April

compared to the same

period last year, largely due

to favourable conditions in

the four key dairy regions.

Production for the 12 months

to April was up 3% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

This increase was driven

by south east Australian

production, in particular

Victoria and Tasmania .

Fonterra collections

in Australia have been

reported for May, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production

increased 1% in April

compared to the same

period last year, driven by

continued strong European

dairy prices.

This growth was primarily

driven by Germany and

Poland up 3%, facilitated

by good weather

conditions. This growth

was partially dampened by

a combined 3% decline in

the United Kingdom and

Ireland as a consequence of

delayed grass growth and

feed shortages.

Production for the 12 months

to April was up 3% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

US milk production

increased 1% in March

compared to the same

period last year.

The US continues to grow

production per cow with

March seeing an average

10kg per cow increase, above

March 2017 levels in the 23

major dairy-producing states.

Milk production for the 12

months to March increased

by 2% compared to the same

period the previous year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

Production change

for the 12 months to

April 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

May 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

April 2018

Production change


for the 12 months to

March 2018

0323

%

%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

%%

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

US, NEW ZEALAND AND

AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS SHOW

DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH FOR

THE MONTH. EUROPEAN

EXPORTS REMAIN ON

THE  RISE

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased 10%,

or 25,000 MT, in April

compared to the same

period last year.

This growth continues to be

driven by WMP, which was

up 12,000 MT. In addition,

AMF, infant formula and

butter were up a combined

26%, or 11,000 MT, for

the month.

Exports for the 12 months

to April were up 1%, or

38,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This increase was primarily

due to WMP and fluid and

fresh dairy, up a combined

123,000 MT, partially offset

by declines in AMF, MPC

and MPI, and cheese down a

combined 83,000  MT.

EU dairy exports increased

by 4%, or 14,000 MT, in

February compared to the

same period last year.

Growth was seen across the

majority of export categories,

in particular infant formula

and SMP up a combined 19%,

or 19,000 MT. However a

decline of 11%, or 12,000  MT,

was seen in the largest

category, fluid and fresh dairy.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were up 7%,

or 341,000 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

SMP continues to be the

primary driver, up 40%,

or 225,000 MT. Growth

continues to be seen across

most of the export categories

except for caseinate and

butter, down a combined

53,000 MT, or 23%.

US dairy exports increased

by 31%, or 57,000 MT, in

April compared to the same

period last year on the back

of high domestic production.

Exports were up for the sixth

consecutive month led by

the following categories:

SMP, WPC and WPI, lactose

and cheese.

Exports for the 12 months

to April were up 8%, or

173,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Growth was seen across

most categories apart from

fluid and fresh dairy which

was down 8,000 MT. Cheese,

SMP and whey powder saw

the biggest gains, adding

54,000 MT, 37,000 MT and

31,000 MT, respectively.

Australia dairy exports

increased 16%, or 9,000  MT,

in April compared to the

same period last year. This

was led by increases in

most export categories, in

particular SMP and WMP,

which were up a combined

7,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to April were up 5%, or

37,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Fluid and fresh dairy,

SMP and infant formula

made up the majority

of the increase, adding

a combined 64,000  MT.

These gains were offset by

declines in butter, whey

powder and WMP which

were down a combined

19%, or 23,000 MT, for the

12 months to April.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

85

1

7

Export change for the 12

months to April 2018

Export change for the 12

months to April 2018

Export change for the 12

months to April 2018

Export change for the 12

months to February 2018

%%%
%

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

LATIN AMERICA, ASIA AND

CHINA SHOW STEADY IMPORT

GROWTH. GROWTH IN

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

ACCELERATES IN  FEBRUARY

Latin America’s dairy

import volumes¹ increased

4%, or 5,000 MT, in February

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by SMP, cheese and

lactose up a combined 14%,

or 10,000 MT. These gains

were partially offset by

combined declines in WMP

and AMF of 6,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

February were up 3,000 MT

compared to the same

period the previous year.

Increases in SMP, cheese and

whey powder of a combined

98,000 MT for the 12 months

to February, were dampened

by a large decline in WMP of

93,000  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 1%, or 5,000  MT,

in February compared to the

same period last year. This

was driven by continued

growth in WMP and fluid

and fresh dairy, up 9,000 MT

and 4,000 MT, respectively.

Imports for the 12 months

to February were up 1%,

or 31,000 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year. This was

primarily driven by cheese

and WMP, up a combined

89,000 MT, partially offset by

a continuing decline in Asia’s

SMP category, which for the

12 months to February is

down 42,000  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 8%, or 26,000  MT,

in February compared to the

same period last year. This

was driven by significant

increases in most categories,

especially SMP, infant

formula and cheese up 42%,

50% and 14%, respectively.

Imports for the 12 months

to February were up 2%, or

70,000 MT, compared to the

same period the previous

year. SMP, cheese and fluid

and fresh dairy categories

gained 139,000 MT

combined. This was partially

offset by a large decline in

WMP of 65,000  MT.

China dairy import

volumes increased 3%,

or 7,000 MT, in March

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven by

a combined 14,000 MT, or

22%, growth in fluid and

fresh dairy, butter and lactose

categories. Declines in WMP

of 6,000 MT partially offset

this growth.

Imports for the 12 months to

March were up 394,000 MT

compared to the same period

last year. Strong demand

out of China continues

with imports across all

key categories up for the

period. Infant formula, WMP

and SMP imports added a

combined 220,000 MT of

additional volumes.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

Import change for the 12

months to March 2018

Import change for the 12

months to February 2018

Import change for the 12

months to February 2018

Import change for the 12

months to February 2018

117

2

0

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%%%%
To view a table that shows our

detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2017/18 SEASON

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

Decrease for the 2017/18

season compared to the

previous season

Decrease for the 2017/18

season compared to the

previous season

Increase for the 2017/18

season compared to the

previous season

Increase for the season from

1 July to 31 May

311

25

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk

collection across

Australia for the 11

months to 31 May

reached 144 million

kgMS, 29 million kgMS

higher than last season

In May milk collection

reached 12 million kgMS, 17%

ahead of the same month

last season.

Although autumn conditions

have been variable across

key milk supply regions,

conditions remain favourable

for sustained milk growth for

the balance of the season.

North Island milk

collection for the

2017/18 season was down

3% compared to the

previous season.

This decline was driven

primarily by Taranaki

down 10%, on the back of

extremely poor weather

conditions throughout

the season.

May collections reached

35 million kgMS, 8% above

the same month last season.

South Island milk

collection for the 2017/18

season was up 1% compared

to the previous season.

Favourable conditions across

Canterbury, Otago and

Southland for most of the

season drove the increase.

Otago and Southland

had their highest peak

ever, as a result of good

spring conditions, along

with a strong autumn

for Canterbury.

May collections reached

36 million kgMS, 6% above

the same month last season.

Fonterra’s milk

collection across

New Zealand for

the 2017/18 season

reached 1,505 million

kgMS, 1% behind the

2016/17 season.

Difficult weather conditions

were the prevailing theme

for this season. Extremely

wet conditions in spring

caused pasture damage,

stunting both grass growth

and supplementary feed

production, followed by

difficult dry conditions which

kept pasture growth low

across the season.

May collections were

71 million kgMS, 7% above

the same month last season

on the back of favourable

autumn conditions in

most regions.

%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

%

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JUL APR

SEP

NOV

JAN APR JUN SEP NOV FEB

JUN






,

,

.

.



.



.



.


PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

was volatile in May, falling

for most of the month on

renewed global uncertainty,

before recovering late in

the month.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

19 June 2018:

The next trading event will be held on 3 July 2018. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.7

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,591

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

20.5

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 5,611/MT

0.5

BUTTER

USD 2,071/MT

0.4

SMP

USD 3,189/MT

0.5

WMP

USD 4,898/MT

2.3

RENNET CASEIN

USD 6,060/MT

2.6

AMF

USD 3,847/MT

3.8

CHEDDAR

20,455

MT

LATEST AUCTION

559,782

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

Fonterra and Lazada
join forces to bring dairy

goodness online

This is Fonterra’s first

partnership with an

e-commerce company in

Southeast Asia and will see

the dairy co-operative’s

well-loved products, such

as Anmum™, Fernleaf™

and Anchor™, made

available through Lazada to

560 million consumers in

six countries – Indonesia,

Malaysia, the Philippines,

Singapore, Thailand

and Vietnam.

The collaboration includes

an agreement for Lazada

to be the exclusive online

distributor of Anchor™

Full Cream Milk Powder in

Indonesia, marking Anchor™

milk’s debut in the market.

Anindya Dasgupta, Global

Chief Marketing and Sales

Officer, Fonterra, said, “Our

relationship with Lazada is a

key milestone in our journey

to share the goodness of

dairy with more people

around the world, and grow

dairy consumption across

Southeast Asia.

“Consumers in Southeast

Asia are becoming more

discerning as their incomes

grow, demanding more

nutritious and high-quality

foods, and using technology

more widely in their daily

lives. This means more

consumers are shopping

online for essentials such

as dairy.

“We are delighted to

partner with Lazada to seize

opportunities in shifting

consumer behaviour and

drive greater reach of our

dairy nutrition.”

The collaborative partnership

involves leveraging analytics

to better understand

consumer insights, test

out markets and products

most suited for the online

environment, and drive new

innovations in marketing.

Lazada Group Chief Business

Officer, Robin Mah said,

“We are thrilled to be the

first e-commerce partner in

Southeast Asia to Fonterra,

a global leader in dairy

nutrition. It is a recognition

of the consumers in

Southeast Asia, the

importance of understanding

their unique needs and

engaging them. It also

reflects the trust that brands

like Fonterra have in Lazada

as the choice platform to

build their brand reach,

customer engagement, and

e-commerce business in

the region.

“We look forward to working

closely together to make

it simple and convenient

for consumers to enjoy

Fonterra’s high-quality

dairy products and help

to meet families’ evolving

shopping needs.”

A classic stands the test

of time – Boysenberry

Ripple scoops

awards again

The Kiwi favourite first hit

the freezers in the 1960s and

since then has fast become

a regular at ice cream scoop

parlours and in dessert

bowls. It has consistently

been in one of the top selling

tubs of ice cream since then.

It’s jammed packed with

fresh fruit, with over

90 metric tonnes of sun

ripened boysenberries from

Nelson used in Tip Top’s

Boysenberry Ripple and

Boysenberry Trumpets,

every year.

Tip Top Director

Kim Ballinger says the

combination of a great team

and quality ingredients,

including New Zealand

fresh milk and cream, is a

winning one.

“We’re proud that Kiwis

continue to love Boysenberry

Ripple after more than

50 years. We reckon it

brings together the best of

New Zealand.

“Our ice cream contains

great tasting fresh

ingredients, and natural

colours and flavours. It’s

fantastic to see our efforts

being recognised for

award-winning taste!”

And while classic flavours

like Boysenberry Ripple

continue to stand the test

of time, the team is working

hard to come up with new

flavours to tempt Kiwi

taste buds.

“We’re flat out testing a

range of new varieties for

next summer and we think

New Zealanders will be as

excited as we are about

what’s in store.”

Tip Top also won the Best

in Category and Gold for its

Creamy Vanilla, and Goody

Goody Gum Drops and

Hokey Pokey were awarded

gold medals.

7

OUR PERFORMANCE

Climate change
ambassadors to show

the way

“We’re selling world-leading

food products and we need

New Zealanders on board with

us to have a social licence to

operate. We need to do what’s

right by New Zealanders, what’s

right by the environment and

what’s right by our Co-op.”

This is the view of Taranaki

sharemilker, Trish Rankin,

one of 15 Dairy New Zealand

Climate Change ambassadors

who will work with their

rural communities to help

farmers better understand the

challenge of climate change.

“I want to break the concept

that climate change is scary

and turn it into positive action,”

says Trish.

“My role is to help my fellow

farmers understand how they

can play a role in reducing

the impact of climate change.

We must acknowledge that

each region is different and

requires different actions

but also recognise the good

practices farmers already

do to help mitigate climate

change. Taranaki started

riparian planting years ago so

we are looking pretty plush

and now able to focus on our

next actions.”

The 2017 Healthy Waterways

report, published in October,

recorded Taranaki’s best

healthy stream trends in

21 years, showing water

quality improving in the

region. This was attributed

to farmers robust Riparian

Management Programme.

“It’s a step toward ensuring

we have a (social) licence to

operate,” says Trish.

The 15 ambassadors – four

women and 11 men – represent

best environmental farming

practices and will help farming

communities future proof their

business, according to DairyNZ

Chief Executive Tim Mackle.

“They run their farms profitably

and sustainably and are serious

about reducing on farm

greenhouse gas emissions,”

he says.

“Emission reduction is a

challenge the entire global

food sector is facing and

New Zealand is well placed

to showcase our sustainable

dairying to the world.

“New Zealand is already one of

the lowest emission producers

of dairy in the world. But for

New Zealand to achieve its

2030 target, we must look at

ways to reduce all gases across

all sectors,” says Tim.

The Climate Change

Ambassadors are located

around New Zealand with

13 of the 15 positions held by

Fonterra farmers.

8

OUR CO-OP

Minimum Shareholding

Requirements for

Farmer Shareholders

At the commencement of

each season (1 June), or shortly

after, farmers are advised of

their minimum shareholding

requirements for that season.

They need to be compliant by

1 December

A farmer shareholder’s

minimum shareholding

requirement is generally based

on the average of their farm’s

prior three seasons’ actual

production, adjusted for any

milk supplied under contract.

The opening minimum

shareholding requirements

for the 2018/19 season

decreased to 1,391 million

shares, 28 million lower than

the opening 2017/18 minimum

shareholding requirements.

SHAREHOLDING REQUIREMENTS FOR CURRENT AND PRIOR SEASON

FIGURES IN MILLIONS

UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED

2017/18 SEASON

OPENING BALANCE

AT JUNE 2017

2018/19 SEASON

OPENING BALANCE

AT JUNE 2018

Minimum shareholding requirement1,4191,391

Vouchers that count towards the minimum shareholding4745

Dry shares held by farmer shareholders¹111141

Units issued by the Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund124125

Total shares on issue1,6071,612

Dry shares held by farmer shareholders (% of shares

on issue)

6.9%8.7%

Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund size (% of shares on issue)7.7%7.8%

1 Dry shares are calculated as shares on issue less minimum shareholding less units issued by the Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund, plus vouchers.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES











,





EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s















AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East and Africa and Latin America to February; China to March.

NOTE: Data for EU to February; New Zealand, US and Australia to April.

NOTE: Data for US to March; EU and Australia to April and New Zealand to May.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

DEC NOV JAN

JUL AUG MAY

SEP FEB

OCT JUN

,
,

,

,

,

,



, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

M AY

2018

M AY


2017

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2016/17

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

70.966.56.6%1,505.11,525.7(1.4%)

North Island34.832.37.8%892.0915.7(2.6%)

South Island36.134.25.5%613.1610.00.5%

Fonterra Australia11. 810.017.0%143.6114.825.0%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(19 JUNE 2018)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2017)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

20,455559,782

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

2.1%2.3%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,5913,372

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

1.3%4.9%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.7%–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.


GLOSSARY

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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