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Global Dairy Update September 2018

Operational Update30 September 2018FSFConsumer Staples

1
GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

SEPTEMBER 2018

KEY DATES

8 November 2018

Fonterra Co-operative Group

Annual Meeting

12 November 2018

Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund

Annual Meeting

1 December 2018

Compliance Date for Share

Standard 2018/19 Season

December 2018

FY19 Q1 Business Update

• Early season production in New Zealand

stronger than last year. Production down in

Australia and slowing in Europe.

• Export growth from New Zealand and the US

in July. European exports weaken in May.

• Imports in Asia show continued strong

demand. Middle East and Africa remain flat

while Latin America declines.

• Fonterra’s early season milk collection

across New Zealand for the three months to

31 August reached 127 million kgMS, around

8% of total season production.

• A little piece of Clandeboye in half a billion pizzas

• Anchor Protein+ a new twist on flavoured milk.

• Fonterra has recently announced its annual results

• Total cash pay-out for 2017/2018 of $6.79.

• An additional 465 million

LME into higher-value

Advanced Ingredients,

Consumer and

Foodservice products.

• Fonterra is pleased to welcome Brett Henshaw to the

Co-operative as Managing Director, Fonterra Brands,

New Zealand (FBNZ).

Visit our website for more

details –

%%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

EARLY SEASON

PRODUCTION IN

NEW  ZEALAND STRONGER

THAN LAST YEAR.

PRODUCTION DOWN IN

AUSTRALIA AND SLOWING

IN  EUROPE

Total New Zealand milk

production increased 5%

in August compared to

the same month last year

although it is still early in

the season. This was driven

by favourable weather

conditions in Taranaki,

Central Districts, Canterbury

and Southland/Otago. Some

of this increase has been

offset as a result of heavy

rains in the Bay of Plenty.

For the 12 months to August,

milk production was flat

compared to the same

period last year.

Fonterra collections have

been reported for August,

see page 5 for details.

Australian milk

production decreased 4%

in July compared to the same

period last year. This is being

driven by rising on-farm

input prices, droughts across

parts of the country and cow

cull rates increasing (up 14%

in July, year-on-year).

Production for the 12 months

to July was up 2% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

The likelihood of an El Niño

developing remains at 50%

which will continue to

pressure milk production

throughout the season.

Fonterra collections in

Australia have been reported

for August, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production

increased by less than 1% in

July compared to the same

period last year as conditions

became more favourable.

Growth for the month of

July was predominantly

driven by Germany, France

and Spain up 3%, 2% and

4% respectively but weekly

production figures for

Germany and France in

August are showing negative

growth year on year.

Production for the 12 months

to July was up 3% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

US milk production was

up 1% in August compared

to the same period last year.

Hot and humid weather

conditions had the potential

to slow growth but August

milk production remained

around last year's level. An

increase in cow numbers

regardless of heavy slaughter

rates sets the US up to meet

expected annual growth

of 1%.

Milk production for the 12

months to August increased

by 1% compared to the same

period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

Production change

for the 12 months to

July 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

August 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

July 2018

Production change


for the 12 months to

August 2018

0213

%

%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

%%

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

EXPORT GROWTH

FROM  NEW  ZEALAND

AND  THE US IN JULY.

EUROPEAN EXPORTS

WEAKENED IN MAY

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased 6%, or

17,000 MT, in July compared

to the same period last

year. This increase is driven

by WMP and butter, up

a combined 32,000  MT.

However, declines in SMP

of 16,000 MT dampened

this increase.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were down 2%, or

57,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

continues to be driven

by lower volumes across

WMP, AMF, cheese and

SMP, down a combined

116,000 MT. Fluid and fresh

dairy and infant formula

continued strong growth, up

76,000  MT.

EU dairy exports decreased

by 6%, or 28,000 MT, in

May compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by declines

in fluid and fresh dairy and

SMP, down a combined

30,000 MT. This was partially

offset by gains in infant

formula, up 6,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 4%, or

220,000 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

Continued upside in SMP

and infant formula remain

the primary drivers behind

European dairy export

growth, up a combined

222,000  MT.

US dairy exports increased

by 12%, or 20,000 MT, in

July compared to the same

period last year. Growth

in SMP and lactose of a

combined 17,000 MT, was

the primary driver behind

this increase.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 10%, or

218,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This increase was driven

by growth across the five

largest export categories,

SMP, lactose, cheese, whey

powder and WPC and WPI,

up a combined 185,000  MT.

Australian dairy exports

increased 4%, or 2,000  MT,

in July compared to the same

period last year. This growth

was due to upside in most

categories, up 10,000  MT,

offset by declines in butter,

SMP, cultured products,

other powders and caseinate

of a combined 8,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 5%, or

33,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Fluid and fresh dairy, and

infant formula continued

to make up the majority of

growth in Australian exports,

up a combined 45,000 MT

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

105

2

4

Export change for the 12

months to July 2018

Export change for the 12

months to July 2018

Export change for the 12

months to July 2018

Export change for the 12

months to May 2018

%%%
%

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

IMPORTS IN ASIA SHOW

CONTINUED STRONG

DEMAND. MIDDLE EAST AND

AFRICA REMAIN FLAT WHILE

LATIN AMERICA DECLINES

Latin American dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

5%, or 8,000 MT, in May

compared to the same

period last year. This

decrease was driven by

cheese, SMP and AMF down

13%, or 12,000 MT. This

was partially offset by gains

in WMP and lactose, up

3,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were down 1%, or

25,000 MT, compared to the

same period the previous

year. This decline was

primarily driven by WMP

and AMF, down a combined

88,000 MT. An increase in

SMP and whey powder of

62,000 MT offset some of

the decline.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 3%, or 12,000  MT,

in May compared to the

same period last year.

Growth in fluid and fresh

dairy and SMP of 22,000 MT

drove the increase. A decline

in whey powder of 7,000 MT

partially dampened gains.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were up 2%, or

102,000 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. Continued growth

in WMP and cheese of

96,000 MT were the primary

drivers of this upside.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

were mostly flat in May

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by strong growth in

WMP of 10,000 MT, offset

by declines in fluid and fresh

dairy of 12,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were up 4%, or

148,000 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. The increase is driven

by growth in SMP, cheese

and fluid and fresh dairy, up a

combined 125,000  MT.

China dairy import

volumes² increased 3%,

or 7,000 MT, in March

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven by

a combined 14,000 MT, or

22%, growth in fluid and

fresh dairy, butter and lactose

categories. Declines in WMP

of 6,000 MT partially offset

this growth.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were up 17%, or

394,000 MT, compared to

the same period last year.

Strong demand out of China

continued with imports across

all key categories up for the

period. Infant formula, WMP

and SMP imports added a

combined 220,000 MT of

additional volumes.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

Import change for the 12

months to March 2018

Import change for the 12

months to May 2018

Import change for the 12

months to May 2018

Import change for the 12

months to May 2018

217

4

1

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.2 China has suspended trade data, citing system technical issues. Based on exports to

China, we estimate June volumes grew 15% compared to the previous comparable period.

%%%%
To view a table that shows our

detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2018/19 SEASON

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 August

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 August

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 August

Decrease for the season

from 1 July to 31 August

2413

8

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk

collection across

Australia for the two

months to 31 August

reached 17 million kgMS,

down 8% on the same

period last season.

Poor seasonal conditions

are driving up input costs

resulting in increased

cow cull rates. The poor

seasonal outlook and a very

competitive milk supply

market will more than likely

continue to impact milk

supply during the 2019

financial year.

North Island milk

collection in August

reached 70 million kgMS, in

line with August last season.

This was due to good pasture

growth rates in Northland

following improved weather

conditions. This led to more

pasture feeding and reduced

use of supplementary feeds.

North Island milk collection

for the 2018/19 season to

date reached 96 million

kgMS, up 2%.

South Island milk

collection in August

reached 26 million kgMS,

13% higher than August

last season.

This is due to favourable

weather conditions,

particularly in the upper

South Island.

South Island milk collection

for the 2018/19 season to

date reached 31 million

kgMS, up 13%.

Fonterra’s early season

milk collection across

New Zealand for

the three months to

31 August reached

127 million kgMS,

around 8% of total

season production.

New Zealand collections in

August reached 97 million

kgMS, 3% up on the same

month last season.

These volumes are small

in the context of the full

season, as is usual for this

time of the year.

%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

%

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

AUG  JUN  NOV  FEB  APR JUL SEP OCT  JAN  APR  SEP 





,

,

,

. 

.

. 

. 

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar fell

over the month of August

after the Reserve Bank

New Zealand signalled a

lower-for-longer stance on

interest rate policy. US-China

trade war talk presents a key

risk event during September.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

18 September 2018:

The next trading event will be held on 2 October 2018. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

1.6

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

2,959

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

38.4

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 5,421/MT

1.8

RENNET CASEIN

USD4,270/MT

0.0

BUTTER

USD 5,294/MT

0.4

AMF

USD 1,989/MT

1.2

SMP

USD 2,768/MT

1.9

WMP

USD3,503/MT

3.5

CHEDDAR

38,438

MT

LATEST AUCTION

140,997

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
OUR PERFORMANCE

A little piece of Clandeboye in half a billion pizzas

Some already call it the

Riviera of the South and now

Timaru could also be the pizza

capital of New Zealand, as the

region becomes the Southern

Hemisphere’s largest producer

of natural mozzarella cheese.

Fonterra’s Clandeboye site fired

up its third new mozzarella

line this month, meaning it

now produces enough of the

revolutionary cheese to top

more than half a billion pizzas

a year.

The cheese, which is made

from one of the Co-operative’s

secret recipes, is made in hours

rather than in months – the

time traditional mozzarella

takes. It’s destined for pizzas all

over the world. Fonterra cheese

already tops around 50% of

the pizzas in China – one of the

fastest growing pizza markets

in the world.

Fonterra Chief Operating

Officer Global Operations

Robert Spurway said the new

plant, which was built in under

two years, is a great example

of the Co-operative’s ambition

to move more milk into value

add products.

“We’re focussed on getting

more value from every drop

of our farmers’ milk. With the

opening of this new mozzarella

plant and recent expansion

of our Darfield site, we’re able

to produce even more higher

returning products. That’s good

news for our farmers and the

communities they live in,” said

Mr Spurway.

Fonterra GM Marketing Global

Foodservice, Susan Cassidy,

said “the new plant will

double the site’s production

of mozzarella – the world’s

most popular variety of cheese,

topping more than 80% of

pizzas in Australia, China, South

East Asia and the Middle East.

We’re excited to have a slice

of this market and are looking

forward to that slice growing.

“Globally more and more

people are eating meals out of

home, in restaurants and on the

go, and the global foodservice

market is predicted to be worth

US$3 trillion by 2021. Our

foodservice business, Anchor

Food Professionals, is still

experiencing strong growth

– and this new expansion

supports our growth.”

According to global research

company Euromonitor, demand

for Western food in China has

helped pizza sales more than

double from US$1.5 billion in

2010 to US$3.5 billion in 2015.

Timaru District Mayor

Damon Odey says “it’s fantastic

to see this plan come to reality,

as it underlines the importance

of the Timaru District as a major

food hub in New Zealand, and

as an growing exporter to the

rest of the world. We welcome

this vote of confidence

that Fonterra has made in

our community.

“More and more people are

seeing the appeal of provincial

New Zealand, and investments

like this underline that people

can move to Timaru District

and get unmatched job,

housing and lifestyle options.”

Anchor Protein+ a new twist on flavoured milk

Anchor Protein+ flavoured milk

has hit New Zealand shelves,

the first time Kiwis have been

able to buy a product of its kind

in local stores.

The new beverage features 20g

of protein per serve and unlike

most flavoured milk drinks,

contains no added sugar.

Darren Moffat, Fonterra’s

General Manager of

Ready-to-Drink Beverages, said

Fonterra’s technologists spent

two years developing a product

that’s highly nutritious, as well

as great tasting.

“Anchor Protein+ flavoured

milk is the perfect choice for

people wanting a high protein,

better-for-you beverage.

“People are increasingly

seeking out nutritious on-the-

go snack options, and there’s

a growing awareness of the

importance of protein. As a

result, demand for snacking

options with good levels of

protein has sky-rocketed over

recent years,” said Mr Moffat.

Fonterra’s Head of Nutrition

Mindy Wigzell said the

Anchor Protein+ range

provides convenient ways for

New Zealanders to consume

protein throughout the day.

“Our bodies need protein every

day and getting more than just

the minimum requirement

is good for optimal health.

Research also shows spreading

protein intake throughout the

day can help our bodies use

protein more efficiently,” said

Ms Wigzell.

As well as being high in protein,

Anchor Protein+ flavoured milk

has no added sugar.

It is the third in a string of

beverages released by Fonterra

recently with a focus on

sugar reduction.

The new Primo and Mammoth

flavoured milks both contain

40% less added sugar.

All three beverages are

produced at Apollo’s new

plant in Hawke’s Bay which

has innovative beverage

filling technology.

Anchor Protein+ flavoured milk

comes in three flavours: vanilla,

chocolate and mixed berry, all

of which are made with real

milk and no artificial colours,

flavours or preservatives.

8
OUR CO-OP

FONTERRA ANNOUNCES

MANAGING DIRECTOR

FONTERRA BRANDS

NEW ZEALAND

Fonterra is pleased to

welcome Brett Henshaw

to the Co-operative as

Managing Director, Fonterra

Brands, New Zealand

(FBNZ).

Brett is currently Managing

Director of The Griffin’s Food

Company and he will take up

his role with Fonterra in the

first week of December.

Fonterra Chief Operating

Officer, Global Consumer &

Foodservice, Lukas Paravicini,

says “we are excited about

Brett joining the team. He

has an extensive 30-year

career in FMCG and we

are pleased he is coming

on board.

“Along with his time in

New Zealand, Brett has also

worked in Sydney, Singapore,

New York and the UK, and

he has a deep understanding

of consumers, their needs

and how to deliver on

those needs.”

“Brett has a strong

commercial and strategic

focus as well as end-to-end

experience across the

supply chain, including

manufacturing and

operations. He is also

recognised for the emphasis

he places on people – a

culture of mentoring,

development, teamwork

and open communication

is important to him,” says

Mr. Paravicini.

Brett says “I’m really looking

forward to taking up this key

leadership role in Fonterra

Brands and working with the

broader Fonterra team, and

our customers right across

the country.”

“As a Kiwi, who has worked

overseas for many years

prior to joining Griffin’s, I

am delighted to have the

opportunity to work with

the Fonterra Brands team on

some of New Zealand’s most

loved brands.”

Brett has previously held

brand positions with

Unilever, and a number

of senior marketing roles

with Colgate-Palmolive

worldwide. This included

Regional General

Management roles in

Australasia and in Asia,

where he was responsible

for eleven countries. He was

appointed Chief Marketing

Officer for The Griffin’s

Food Company in 2015, and

became Managing Director

in 2016.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES









,





EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to July; New Zealand and US to August.

NOTE: Data for EU to May; New Zealand, US and Australia to July.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East and Africa and Latin America to May; estimates for China for April and May.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

DEC NOV JAN

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

FEB

OCT JUN

,
 ,



,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT 

QUANTITY SOLD  MT 

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

AUGUST

2018

AUGUST


2017

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

96.593.43.3%127.7122.44.4%

North Island70.070.10.0%96.594.81.8%

South Island26.523.313.4%31.327.613.3%

Fonterra Australia9.410.5(10.5%)17.118.6(8.4%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(18 SEPTEMBER 2018)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2018)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

38,438140,997

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

14.5%9.0%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

2,9593,046

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(12.9%)(10.0%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(1.6%)–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.


GLOSSARY

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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