Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update February 2019

Operational Update27 February 2019FCGConsumer Staples

• Anchor Chef’s Cream has been chosen by the world’s
largest foodservice distributor, Sysco, as one of their top ten

innovative products for 2019 – the first time a New Zealand

product has ever been chosen.

• Fonterra is signing up farms to supply milk for

The a2 Milk Company in the 2019/2020 season.

1

GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

FEBRUARY 2019

• Production in New Zealand to January up

on last year. US production growth remains

steady, EU growth is easing and Australia

is declining.

• Exports from the US, Australia and

New Zealand continue to grow. European

exports steady.

• Imports into Asia and China continue to grow.

Latin America increased but the Middle East

and Africa region is declining.

• Fonterra’s milk collection across New Zealand

for the eight months to 31 January was

1,083 million kgMS, up 5% on the same period

last season.

• Fonterra has updated its forecast milk collection

for the full season, to 1,530 million kgMS, up 2%

on last season, and down 1 % from the previous

forecast of 1,550 million kgMS.

• From regional New Zealand all the way to China —

Robert Spurway, Fonterra’s Chief Operating Officer Global

Operations, reflects on the value of our trade relationship

with China for regional New Zealand.

KEY DATES

28 February 2019

Final date for Applications to

Supply Fonterra

20 March 2019

FY19 Interim Results

Announcement

May 2019

Q3 Business Update

1 June 2019

Measurement Date for Share

Standard 2019/20 Season

%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

%%

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

PRODUCTION IN

NEW  ZEALAND TO

JANUARY UP ON

LAST  YEAR. US PRODUCTION

REMAINS STEADY, EU GROWTH

IS EASING AND AUSTRALIA

IS  DECLINING

Total New Zealand milk

production increased 8%

in January compared to the

same month last year.

Weather and pasture

conditions throughout

January supported

production which returned

to a more usual pattern

following the previous

season that was adversely

impacted by poor on-farm

conditions. Subsequently the

weather risk has increased

with an extended period of

dryness in the first two weeks

of February.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to January

2019 was 4% higher than

last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for January, see page

5 for details.

Australian milk

production decreased 7% in

December compared to the

same period last year.

Production for the 12 months

to December is down 2% on

the previous 12 months.

High input costs, increased

cow cull rates, and farm exits

continue to severely impact

milk production. Dairy

Australia has forecast a milk

production decline of 5% to

7% for the season.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for January, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production

decreased 1% in December

compared to the same

period last year.

The Netherlands, France

and Germany continued

to see year-on-year

decline in production

with The Netherlands

experiencing the largest

decline. This was offset

by continuing strong

growth in Ireland, as well

as solid growth in Poland

and Denmark.

Production for the 12 months

to December was up 1%

compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

was up less than 1% in

December compared to the

same period last year. Cow

numbers have continued

to decline with the small

year-on-year growth driven

by increased yield per cow.

Margins continue to be

squeezed and in many

cases have been negative

for the last quarter of 2018.

Growth is likely to remain

constrained until some

improvement in margin

is achieved.

Milk production for the

12 months to December

is continuing to hold at

1% compared to the same

period last year driven by the

relatively stronger monthly

production growth at the

start of 2018.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

Production change

for the 12 months to

December 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

January 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

December 2018

Production change


for the 12 months to

December 2018

4211

%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

%%

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

EXPORTS FROM THE

US, AUSTRALIA AND

NEW  ZEALAND CONTINUE

TO GROW. EUROPEAN

EXPORTS  STEADY

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by 10%,

or 40,000 MT, in December

compared to the same period

last year. Exports hit a record

level of 449,000 MT, the

highest volume recorded. This

was primarily driven by WMP,

up 26,000 MT. Fluid products,

AMF, and infant formula were

up a combined 18,000  MT.

Butter declined 8,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

December were up 2%, or

54,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

driven by fluid products, WMP,

infant formula, and AMF up a

combined 120,000 MT. This

was offset by declines in SMP,

cheese and cultured products

down a combined 67,000  MT.

EU dairy exports increased

by 5%, or 21,000 MT, in

November compared to

the same period last year.

This was primarily driven by

lactose, SMP, whey powder,

and butter up a combined

27,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

November were up 1%, or

49,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period with

continued growth in a broad

range of products, led by

infant formula, SMP, and

lactose but offset by declines

in fluid milk products

and WMP.

US dairy exports declined

by 11%, or 21,000 MT, in

November compared to

the same period last year.

There was a decline in

most products including

SMP, whey powder, lactose,

cheese, and WPC.

Exports for the 12 months to

November were up 12%, or

265,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was notably in

SMP, lactose, WPC and WMP,

up a combined 217,000  MT.

Australian dairy exports

increased 3%, or 2,000  MT,

in December compared to

the same period last year.

Infant formula and whey

powder were up a combined

5,000 MT. This was offset

by a decline in WMP of

2,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

December were up 5%, or

37,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Infant formula, fluid milk and

whey powder make up most

of the growth in Australian

exports, up a combined

34,000  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

1251

2

Export change for the 12

months to November 2018

Export change for the 12

months to December 2018

Export change for the 12

months to December 2018

Export change for the 12

months to November 2018

%

%%%
%

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

IMPORTS INTO ASIA

AND CHINA CONTINUE

TO GROW. LATIN AMERICA

INCREASED BUT THE MIDDLE

EAST AND AFRICA REGION

IS  DECLINING

Latin American dairy

import volumes¹ increased

9%, or 14,000 MT, in

November compared to

the same period last year.

The increase was across

most product categories,

principally SMP, cheese, MPC

and WMP.

Imports for the 12 months

to November were up 2%,

or 39,000 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. SMP, lactose, fluid

products and MPC were up a

combined 64,000 MT offset

by declines in AMF and

WMP of 22,000  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

were down marginally at

2,000 MT, in November

compared to the same

period last year. SMP and

fluid products were up but

offset by declines in MPC

and WMP.

Although down marginally

for the month, imports

for the 12 months to

October were still up 5%, or

223,000 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. This growth was driven

by fluid products and WMP

of 156,000  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 6% or 20,000 MT

in November compared to

the same period last year.

Small growth in infant

formula and cultured

products was offset by

declines in most other

product categories, totalling

25,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

November were down 5%,

or 212,000 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year. The reduction

was driven by fluid and fresh

dairy and cheese, down

a combined 229,000  MT.

This was offset by a small

increase in SMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased 17%, or

34,000 MT in December

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by increases across

a broad range of products,

particularly WMP, SMP, and

fluid products but offset

by small declines in whey

powder, butter and infant

formula. December WMP

exports from New Zealand

to China hit a record level

of 150,000 MT. Imports for

the 12 months to December

were up 8%, or 213,000  MT,

compared to the same period

last year. Strong demand out

of China continued across all

key categories in particular,

WMP and SMP which are up

a combined 82,000  MT.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

Import change for the 12

months to December 2018

Import change for the 12

months to November 2018

Import change for the 12

months to November 2018

Import change for the 12

months to November 2018

58

5

2

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%%%
To view a table that shows our

detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2018/19 SEASON

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 January

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 January

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 January

5

Decrease for the season

from 1 July to 31 January

55

16

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk collection

across Australia for the seven

months to 31 January reached

83 million kgMS, down 16% on

the same period last season.

Fonterra collections in January

reached 11 million kgMS, down

23% on January last season.

January's average temperature

was the highest on record.

Fonterra’s share of monthly

collections continues to reduce

due to high on-farm prices,

severe weather, substantial

increase in culled cows, farm

retirements and intense

competition for milk supply.

North Island milk collection

in January was 98 million

kgMS, 10% higher than January

last season reflecting the poor

on-farm conditions last season.

Northland has experienced

prolonged hot and dry

conditions. Pasture quality

in Waikato and Taranaki has

also recently declined due to

hot weather.

Milk collection for the 2018/19

season to date reached

665 million kgMS, up 5%.

South Island milk collection

in January was 71 million

kgMS, 3% higher than January

last season.

Hot weather and low rainfall

have led to pasture growth

rates slowing and use of

conserved supplementary

feed in some regions however,

Canterbury has seen little

impact from the hot and dry

conditions, having maintained

good grass growth and pasture

cover to date.

Milk collection for the 2018/19

season to date reached

418 million kgMS, up 5%.

Fonterra’s milk collection

across New Zealand for the

eight months to 31 January was

1,083 million kgMS, up 5% on

the same period last season.

Despite the hot and dry

conditions continuing

to impact most regions,

production remains ahead of

this time last season, which was

the lowest in three years due to

adverse weather conditions.

Fonterra collections in January

were 169 million kgMS, 7% up

on January last season.

%

1,530M

KGMS

Fonterra has updated its

forecast milk collection to

1,530 million kgMS for the

2018/19 season.

Fonterra’s New Zealand milk

collections forecast is 2%

higher than last season, which

was negatively impacted by

poor on-farm conditions.

Fonterra has reduced its full

season forecast by 1% to reflect

the impact of ongoing hot and

dry on-farm conditions, and

the corresponding downwards

pressure on milk flows.

On-farm conditions will

continue to be an important

factor on the milk supply for

the remainder of the season.

We will continue to

provide updates as the

season progresses.

Forecast Fonterra Milk

Collection Across New Zealand

%%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

FEB DEC MAY JUL SEP DEC FEB MAY JUL SEP FEB 





,

, 

,

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.

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. 

. 

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

stabilised in the new year

following moves by the US

Federal Reserve to moderate

their rhetoric around further

removal of monetary stimuli.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

19 February2019:

The next trading event will be held on 5 March 2019. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.2

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,308

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

24.6

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,667/MT

2.9

CHEDDAR

USD 5,740/MT

2.6

RENNET CASEIN

USD 2,612/MT

2.2

SMP

USD 4,495/MT

1.1

BUTTER

USD 5,620/MT

0.7

AMF

USD 3,022/MT

0.2

WMP

24,644

MT

LATEST AUCTION

480,405

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Anchor Chef’s Cream

the real Cream of

the Crop

Anchor Chef’s Cream

has been chosen by the

world’s largest foodservice

distributor, Sysco, as one

of their top ten innovative

products for 2019 – the first

time a New Zealand product

has ever been chosen.

Each year, Sysco selects

ten products to showcase

to their restaurant partners,

where they hold the

significant distribution share

of the 1.2 million outlets

across the USA.

Director of Global

Foodservice Grant Watson

says Anchor Chef’s Cream is

one of a kind and the recipe

is a closely guarded secret.

“Our culinary cream was first

developed by our Research

and Development team

more than ten years ago.

It’s specially formulated to

perform well in professional

kitchens, while keeping a

great taste and appearance.

And it’s already reduced

saving chefs valuable

preparation time.”

Before selecting our Anchor

Chef’s Cream as one of their

top ten products, Sysco put

the cream through its paces.

“We’re pleased to say that

when tested by Sysco and

their partner restaurants, our

cream achieved one of the

highest innovation scores

and purchase intent in the

history of Sysco’s innovation

platform,” says Mr Watson.

Through their 6,000-person

sales team and their

200 chefs, Sysco will spend

2019 promoting Anchor

Chef’s Cream to chefs and

restaurants across the US.

“This is an excellent way

for us to expand our reach

across America. The US

foodservice market uses

an estimated 4.6 million

metric tonnes of dairy per

year, and with cream-based

menu items being very

popular across the US, we

believe there is a significant

opportunity to bring new

value to our farmers,

customer partners and their

consumers, with our unique

cream innovation.”

Fonterra is signing up

farms to supply milk for

The a2 Milk Company in

the 2019/2020 season.

Mike Cronin, Fonterra

Managing Director of

Co-operative Affairs, says

“Signing up New Zealand

farms to significantly

increase supply of high

quality milk to The a2 Milk

Company is a positive step

forward. It clearly shows the

strength of our strategic

relationship, and our shared

commitment to fast-track

market growth and enable

farmers to create additional

value from their milk.”

The Co-op’s initial milk

pool will be based in the

Waikato around its Hautapu

site and will support the

production of ingredients.

It is anticipated around

100 farms will be needed for

next season.

Jayne Hrdlicka, The a2 Milk

Company Managing Director

and CEO, says “The a2 Milk

Company is pleased to be

making progress on our

relationship with Fonterra.

These farms will help support

new growth areas for our

company across existing

and new markets. This is

the next step in what we

believe will be a fruitful

long-term relationship with

tremendous potential.”

The location of the milk pool

was determined by several

factors. Most importantly,

the site needed the ability

to manufacture the specific

product in demand, produce

relatively small batches and

adapt easily to any product

demand changes.

“While other regions were

thoroughly considered,

ultimately the decision must

be demand-led. The ability

to efficiently manufacture

a range of products to

meet that demand was

the over-riding factor in

choosing a site. As demand

and product lines grow, we’ll

look to expand the milk pool

to enable more farmers to

participate,” said Mr Cronin.

Most of the value from the

relationship with The a2 Milk

Company will be returned

to all Co-op farmers through

the dividend. Participating

farms will also receive a

premium for their milk.

This development follows

the national launch of the

a2 Milk™ brand by Anchor

from late September2018.

OUR PERFORMANCE

FROM REGIONAL
NEW ZEALAND

ALL THE WAY

TO CHINA

Robert Spurway, Fonterra’s

Chief Operating Officer

Global Operations, reflects

on the value of our trade

relationship with China for

regional New Zealand.

Earlier this month, families

across China celebrated the

lunar new year. Alongside

them, around 170,000

Chinese New Zealanders and

their families also celebrated

the Year of the Pig. It’s

great to see opportunities

for other Kiwis to join in at

various Lantern Festivals and

community events across the

country too.

While most of the new year

festivities are being held in

the main urban centres, it’s

regional New Zealand that’s

quietly punching above its

weight when it comes to the

relationship with our biggest

trading partner.

Last year New Zealand

exports to China were worth

more than $16.6 billion,

and $3.8 billion of that

was generated by Fonterra

in rural and regional

New Zealand. In total,

around a quarter of

Fonterra’s exports went

to China where they were

consumed by around

150 million people.

An increasing Chinese

appetite for New Zealand

dairy is helping drive our

regional economies and

now 11 percent of all dairy

in China comes from

Fonterra farmers. We’re

not just talking about milk

powder either.

Fonterra mozzarella tops

more than half a billion

pizzas and our cream

goes into 500 million tea

macchiatos every year. A

little bit of New Zealand is

ending up on shelves and

tables across China and in

return that product is helping

put food on Kiwi tables.

Our China export earnings

help generate income for

forklift drivers in Darfield,

Maungaturoto tanker

operators, cheese-makers in

Stirling and processors at our

plant in Te Awamutu.

The benefits of our

relationship with China

flow into communities as

our employees and farmers

support businesses, schools

and other local organisations

across the country.

Waikato was one of

Fonterra’s biggest regions

for China exports, totalling

around $1.2 billion in

products, like cream, cheese

and milk powder. This works

out to around $2,500 per

person in the region.

Of our 30 New Zealand

sites, Clandeboye in

Canterbury was the top

producer, exporting around

$566 million in products to

China. Southland’s Edendale

came a close second

exporting nearly $560 million

and in Taranaki Whareroa

exported $437 million.

The positive influence of

Chinese consumer demand

is having a positive impact

throughout the year.

I’m fortunate my job has

taken me to China a fair

number of times and my

sense of pride is as strong as

ever when I see our products

on shelves, in bakeries and in

beverages. There’s something

special about knowing that a

little bit of regional and rural

New Zealand has found its

way into the lives of people

in places like Shanghai,

Beijing and Dongguan.

FONTERRA

EXPORTS TO

CHINA

Fonterra produced and

exported $3.8 billion in

dairy products to China

in 2017/18.

OUR CO-OP

8

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES











EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s













AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to December; New Zealand to January.

NOTE: Data for EU and US to November; New Zealand and Australia to December.

NOTE: Data for China to December; Asia, Middle East and Africa, Latin America to November.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

NOV

DEC

JAN JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

FEB OCT

JUN

,
,

,

,

,



,

,

,



, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT 

QUANTITY SOLD  MT 

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JANUARY

2019

JANUARY


2018

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

169.0158.36.8%1,082.61,035.84.5%

North Island98.389.79.6%664.8636.14.5%

South Island70.868.63.2%417.8399.84.5%

Fonterra Australia10.613. 7(22.6%)83.098.3(15.5%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(15 JANUARY 2019)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2018)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

24,644480,405

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

29.8%16.4%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,3082,981

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(11. 7%)(8.9%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.2%–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.


GLOSSARY

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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