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Global Dairy Update March 2019

Operational Update29 March 2019FSFConsumer Staples

• Forecast Farmgate Milk Price
range $6.30‑$6.60 per kgMS.

• Returned to profitability in

the first half of FY19 with a

reported Net Profit After Tax

(NPAT) of $80 million but

normalised EBIT of $323 million, down 29%.

• Full year earnings guidance revised to 15‑25 cents per share

in February. No interim dividend.

• Significant progress made on three‑point plan.

• Full strategic review underway.

Visit our website for

more details –

1

GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

MARCH 2019

• Production growth in New Zealand and

the US is easing. EU growth and Australia

production is declining.

• New Zealand exports increased in January.

Exports from Australia and the EU continue to

grow. US exports begin to ease.

• Imports into Asia and China show strong

growth. Latin America increased but the

Middle East and Africa region is declining.

• Fonterra has updated its forecast milk

collection for the full season to 1,510 million

kgMS, slightly above last season’s collections

of 1,505 million kgMS, following a prolonged

period of dry weather particularly in the

North Island and upper South Island.

• Fonterra’s Waikato and Bay of Plenty tankers are now all up

and running on biodiesel thanks to Z Energy.

KEY DATES

May 2019

Q3 Business Update

1 June 2019

Measurement Date for Share

Standard 2019/20 Season

September 2019

FY19 Annual Results

Announcement

1 December 2019

Compliance Date for Share

Standard 2019/20 Season

%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in production –

%%

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

PRODUCTION GROWTH IN

NEW  ZEALAND AND THE

US IS EASING. EU  GROWTH

AND AUSTRALIA PRODUCTION

IS  DECLINING

Total New Zealand milk

production in February was

broadly flat compared to the

same period last year.

Dry conditions continued

for most of February. Soil

moisture has dropped to

below normal, impacting key

North Island dairy regions.

Drought conditions prevail in

the upper South Island but

dairy regions in the lower

part of the South Island have

not been greatly impacted.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12‑months

to February 2019 was 4%

higher than last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for February, see

page 5 for details.

Australian milk

production decreased 11%

in January 2019 compared to

the same period last year.

Production for the 12 months

to January is down 3% on the

previous 12 months.

High input costs, increased

cow cull rates, and farm

exits continue to severely

impact milk production.

Dairy Australia has forecast

a milk production decline

of between 7% and 9% for

the season.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for February, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production

decreased 1% in January

compared to the same

period last year. This is

the fifth consecutive

monthly decline on a

year‑on‑year basis.

Growth continued to

slow through the second

half of 2018. Austria, The

Netherlands, France and

Germany saw negative

monthly growth. This was

offset by growth in Poland,

UK, Denmark and Belgium.

Ireland was broadly flat

after an extended period of

strong growth.

Production for the 12 months

to January was up less than

1% compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

was up less than 1% in

February compared to the

same period last year. Cow

numbers have continued

to decline with the small

monthly growth on a

year‑on‑year basis driven by

increased yield per cow.

Margins continue to be

squeezed and in many cases

were negative in the last

quarter of 2018. Growth is

likely to remain constrained

until some improvement in

margin is achieved.

Milk production for the

12 months to February was

just under 1% compared to

the same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

Production change

for the 12 months to

January 2019

Production change

for the 12 months to

February 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

January 2019

Production change


for the 12 months to

February 2019

4310

%
To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in exports –

%%

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

NEW  ZEALAND EXPORTS

INCREASED IN  JANUARY.

EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA

AND THE EU CONTINUE TO

GROW. US EXPORTS BEGIN

TO  EASE

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by 16%,

or 51, 000 MT, in January

compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by WMP,

up 27,000 MT. AMF, fluid

products, and butter were up

a combined 22,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to January were up 2%, or

51, 000 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

was primarily driven by

WMP, up 26,000 MT. AMF,

fluid products, butter and

SMP were up a combined

26,000  MT.

EU dairy exports increased

by 4%, or 15,000 MT, in

December compared to

the same period last year.

This was primarily driven by

SMP, lactose, whey powder,

and WPC up a combined

31,000 MT. This was offset

by declines in WMP, cultured

products, fluid products

and cheese of a combined

15, 000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to December were up

1%, or 48,000 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

Infant formula alone was up

46,000 MT to 586,000  MT.

There was continued growth

in a broad range of products,

led by infant formula, SMP,

and lactose offset by declines

in fluid products and WMP.

US dairy exports declined

by 18%, or 36,000 MT, in

December compared to

the same period last year.

This was primarily driven by

whey powder, SMP, lactose

and WPC, down a combined

37,000  MT.

Although SMP was down

in December compared to

the same period last year, it

was up 108,000 MT, for the

12 months to December.

Exports for the 12 months to

December were up 9%, or

208,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Australian dairy exports

increased 32%, or 16,000  MT,

in January compared to the

same period last year. This

growth was due to SMP,

infant formula, fluid products

and whey powder up a

combined 18,000 MT. This

was offset by a decline in

WMP of 3,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to January were up 8%, or

59,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Infant formula, SMP, fluid

products and whey powder

make up most of the growth

in Australian exports, up a

combined 55,000  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

981

2

Export change for the 12

months to December 2018

Export change for the 12

months to January 2019

Export change for the 12

months to January 2019

Export change for the 12

months to December 2018

%

%%%
%

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

IMPORTS INTO ASIA

AND  CHINA SHOW

STRONG  GROWTH.

LATIN  AMERICA INCREASED

BUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND

AFRICA REGION IS  DECLINING

Latin American dairy

import volumes¹ increased

2%, or 3,000 MT, in

December compared to

the same period last year.

The increase was primarily

SMP and infant formula, up

a combined 7,000 MT. This

was offset by a decline in

WMP and whey powder.

Imports for the 12 months

to December were up 3%,

or 65,000 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. SMP, lactose, fluid

products and MPC were up a

combined 73,000 MT offset

by declines in AMF and

WMP of 18,000  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 12%, or 44,000 MT

in December compared

to the same period last

year. SMP, WMP and fluid

products were up but offset

by declines in ice cream

and cheese.

Imports for the 12 months

to December were up 6%,

or 285,000 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year. This growth

continues to be driven

by fluid products, WMP,

SMP, lactose and whey

powder of 277,000 MT. The

market remains in a solid

growth phase.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 10% or 35,000 MT

in December compared to

the same period last year.

Small growth in infant

formula and AMF was offset

by declines in most other

products, principally cheese,

WMP and butter, down a

combined 31,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

December were down 5%,

or 222,000 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. The reduction was

driven by fluid products and

cheese, down a combined

212,000 MT. This was offset

by a small increase in SMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased 17%,

or 64,000 MT in January

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by increases across

a broad range of products,

particularly WMP, SMP,

and infant formula up a

combined 64,000 MT. WMP

imports reached a record

peak of 182,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were up 6%, or

162,000 MT, compared to

the same period last year.

Strong demand continued

with imports across key

categories, particularly WMP,

SMP and infant formula

which were up a combined

128,000  MT.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

Import change for the 12

months to January 2019

Import change for the 12

months to December 2018

Import change for the 12

months to December 2018

Import change for the 12

months to December 2018

66

5

3

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%%%
To view a table that shows our

detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2018/19 SEASON

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

Increase for the season from

1 June to 28 February

Increase for the season from

1 June to 28 February

Increase for the season from

1 June to 28 February

4

Decrease for the season

from 1 July to 28 February

44

17

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk collection

across Australia for the eight

months to 28 February reached

91 million kgMS, down 17% on

the same period last season.

Fonterra collections in February

was 8 million kgMS, down 28%

on February last season.

Fonterra’s share of monthly

collection continues to reduce

due to adverse on‑farm

conditions, cull cow rates,

retirements in key regions,

and milk collection losses in a

highly competitive market.

North Island milk collection

in February was 73 million

kgMS, down 5% on February

last season.

Much of the North Island has

been affected by on‑going hot

and dry conditions, with

adverse impacts on pasture

condition and milk flows.

Supplementary feed is being

used to maintain good animal

condition and provide a degree

of support for milk volumes.

Milk collection for the 2018/19

season to date reached

738 million kgMS, up 4%.

South Island milk collection

in February was 60 million

kgMS, 3% higher than February

last season.

The Upper South Island

area has been classified as

experiencing a medium‑scale

drought, with other regions

also seeing pasture growth

rates slow. Increased use

of supplementary feed has

contributed to overall milk

flow from the South Island

remaining strong.

Milk collection for the 2018/19

season to date reached

478 million kgMS, up 4%.

Fonterra’s milk collection

across New Zealand for the

current season from 1 June to

28 February was 1,216 million

kgMS, up 4% on the same

period last season.

Low rainfall and above average

temperatures continued

through February, slowing milk

production across most regions

but particularly in the North

Island and upper South Island.

Collections in February were

133m kgMS, 2% down on the

same month last season, the

first month this season where

total New Zealand production

was below the equivalent

month last season.

%

1,510M

KGMS

Fonterra has reduced its full

season forecast milk collection

for the 2018/19 season to

1,510 million kgMS, down from

1,530 million kgMS announced

in February.

Whilst collections are

4% ahead on a season to

date basis, the influence

of prolonged dry weather,

particularly in the North Island,

has had an adverse impact

on on‑farm conditions and

therefore production in the

second half of the season.

On farm conditions will

continue to be an important

factor on the milk supply for

the remainder of the season.

We will continue to

provide updates as the

season progresses.

Forecast Fonterra Milk

Collection Across New Zealand

%%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year‑to‑date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

MAR JAN

JUN

AUG

OCT

JAN MAR JUN AUG OCT MAR




,

, 

,

.

.

. 

. 

. 

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

declined marginally during

February as the Reserve Bank

signalled their intent to keep

New Zealand interest rates

on hold for the foreseeable

future against a backdrop of

global growth concerns.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

19 March 2019:

The next trading event will be held on 2 April 2019. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.4

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,386

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

20.7

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 6,190/MT

9.6

RENNET CASEIN

USD 5,089/MT

9.3

BUTTER

USD 3,317/MT

4.1

WMP

USD 4,036/MT

3.8

CHEDDAR

USD 2,438/MT

2.3

SMP

USD 5,662/MT

3.0

AMF

20,740

MT

LATEST AUCTION

523,873

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

Skim UHT milk reaches
#1 spot in China

Anchor™ Skim Milk UHT has

become the top skim milk

brand in Greater China.

This follows our skim milk

sales doubling in the first

half of 2018/19, up 131%

compared to last year.

Greater China President

Christina Zhu says achieving

the number one spot is a

fantastic result. “Skim Milk

UHT joins our Anchor UHT

which is number one both

online and offline. In 2018,

Anchor milk powder reached

the top spot and our Anchor

butter reached second place

in market share.”

As Chinese consumers

become more diet conscious,

they’re looking for lower‑fat

options. Not only low in

fat, Anchor™ skimmed

milk is rich in calcium and

protein, making it popular

with fitness‑focused

consumers and gym‑goers.

The brands team in China

launched a “calorie killer”

campaign to generate high

consumer interest on a tight

marketing budget.

“Health has always been

a big focus for Chinese

but they’re now looking

to balance their busy lives

with a more well‑rounded

lifestyle. Younger consumers,

in particular, are looking

for brands and products

that help them manage a

healthier lifestyle while on

the go.”

Globally, the wellness

market is valued at

around US$3.7 trillion,

and the number of low‑fat

products is growing as the

competition for a bigger

share of this market grows.

Fonterra to explore

opportunities in

complementary

nutrition

Fonterra has taken a stake

in Motif Ingredients, a

US‑based food ingredients

company that develops

and commercialises

bio‑engineered animal and

food ingredients.

Fonterra joins Ginkgo

Bioworks, Breakthrough

Energy Ventures,

Louis Dreyfus Companies

and Viking Global Investors.

Judith Swales, head of

Fonterra’s Global Consumer

and Foodservice business,

says the move is part of the

Co‑operative’s commitment

to its farmer‑owners to stay

at the forefront of innovation

to understand and meet

the changing preferences

of consumers. While the

terms will not be disclosed,

Fonterra’s investment

represents a minority stake

in the business.

“Farmers expect their co‑op

to get the most value from

every drop of their milk

and also keep an eye on

tomorrow to future‑proof

their co‑op for generations

to come.

“Dairy nutrition will always

be at our core, but we also

want to explore how we can

capture more value from

new types of nutrition.

“The complementary

nutrition category – where

plant, insect, algae and

fermentation‑produced

nutrition co‑exist alongside

animal proteins, including

cows’ milk – is fast evolving.

It’s not a case of either/or,

but both,” says Judith.

“If we fast forward 30 years,

there’ll be two billion more

mouths to feed and there

simply won’t be enough

food to go around just

using today’s methods. A

combination of traditional

and complementary

nutrition sources will be

required to meet the world’s

increasing need for food,

especially protein.

“Consumers around the

world will continue to want

natural, grass fed dairy

as a premium source of

nutrition. At the same time,

we recognise that no two

consumers are the same.

As diets and preferences

continue to evolve, we want

to be there, providing people

with choices.

“Our stake in Motif will

help us be part of this

emerging next‑generation

fermentation‑produced

nutrition sector,” says Judith.

Motif has been established

by Ginkgo Bioworks, one of

the world’s leading organism

companies. Using a process

similar to how insulin,

vitamins and beer are made,

Motif’s team of world leading

biotech experts will harness

state‑of‑the‑art genetic

science and fermentation

technology to recreate and

sell animal proteins and food

ingredients, including those

similar to dairy ingredients.

Jonathan McIntyre, Motif

Ingredients’ CEO, says

“Through biotechnology

and fermentation, Motif

will propel the next food

revolution with affordable,

sustainable and accessible

ingredients that meet

the standards of chefs,

food developers, and

visionary brands.”

The inclusion of off‑GDT

sales has contributed 8 cents

per kgMS for the season to

date to 31 January 2019

7

OUR PERFORMANCE

FUELLED BY
BIODIESEL

Fonterra’s Waikato and

Bay of Plenty tankers are

now all up and running

on biodiesel thanks to

Z Energy.

The Co‑op has been

working closely with

Z Energy since 2014 to

help introduce biodiesel

to New Zealand as part

of its commitment to

reduce emissions across

its operations.

Fast forward to 2019,

Fonterra now has its

156 tankers in the Waikato

and Bay of Plenty area

producing 4% less

emissions per year.

Fonterra General Manager

National Transport and

Logistics Barry McColl

says, it’s a step in the right

direction for reaching our

climate targets.

“Over the course of a year,

our use of 160,000 litres

of biodiesel, mainly in

the Waikato and Central

North Island, will prevent

around 425 tonnes

of carbon dioxide

being emitted.

“By working with Z Energy,

we’re taking another

step toward reducing

our carbon footprint.

We’re also supporting

the commercialisation

of biodiesel which will

eventually help other

businesses, the public and

farmers use it to reduce

their emissions.

“We’re one of the most

emissions efficient

producers of dairy in the

world. We’re proud of that,

but we’re also up for the

challenge of doing better.”

No modifications are

needed to use the new

fuel, which is a blend of

up to 5% biodiesel and

ordinary diesel.

Using biofuel is just one

of the ways we’re working

toward our target to

reduce emissions by 30%

across all our operations

by 2030, with a goal to

achieve net zero by 2050.

OUR CO-OP

8

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year‑on‑year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to January; New Zealand and US to February.

NOTE: Data for EU and US to December; New Zealand and Australia to January.

NOTE: Data for China to January; Asia, Middle East and Africa, Latin America to December.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR NOV

DEC

JAN JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

FEB OCT

JUN

,
,

,

,

,



,

,

,



, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT 

QUANTITY SOLD  MT 

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

FEBRUARY

2019

FEBRUARY


2018

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

133.1135.3(1.7%)1,215.71,171.23.8%

North Island72.876.7(5.1%)737.6712.83.5%

South Island60.358.72.8%478.1458.44.3%

Fonterra Australia7.810.8(27.8%)90.9109.1(16.7%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year‑to‑date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(19 MARCH 2019)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2018)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

20,740523,873

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

18.8%16.9%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,3863,014

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(10.1%)(8.9%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.4%–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

Non‑Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.


GLOSSARY

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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