Infratil 2019 Investor Day and Preliminary Guidance FY2020
Infratil Limited 5 Market Lane, PO Box 320, Wellington, New Zealand Tel +64-4-473 3663 www.infratil.com
10 April 2019
Infratil 2019 Investor Day and Preliminary Guidance for the 2020 financial year
Infratil has released the presentation material for its annual Investor Day. Presentations are recorded
during the day and will be available to view on www.infratil.com after the event.
Infratil’s objective is to keep its stakeholders well informed about how its businesses are performing and
how their delivery of strategic objectives is progressing. Over recent years Infratil has established a number
of new platforms to drive future growth and returns. Presentations on the progress of Canberra Data
Centres, Longroad Energy and Tilt Renewables will be given as part of the Investor Day.
Management will also give an update on Infratil’s overall portfolio strategy, as well as providing views on
the near-term outlook.
Infratil advises there is no change to its dividend guidance for FY19, although the final dividend for FY19
will be finalised as part of the 31 March 2019 year-end process, which will be reported on 17 May 2019.
Preliminary EBITDAF guidance has been provided for the 2020 financial year. Underlying EBITDAF from
continuing operations is forecast to be between $510-$540 million. Further information on the breakdown of
Underlying EBITDAF from continuing operations is included in the attached Infratil Presentation and should
be read in conjunction with this announcement.
Any enquiries should be directed to:
Mark Flesher, Investor Relations, Infratil Limited mark.flesher@infratil.com
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Infratil Investor Day
10 April 2019
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Portfolio reconstruction largely complete
Focus on divestment programme and enhancing the cash generative core
•The rebuild of the Infratil portfolio effectively commenced in
2013/14 with sale of Z Energy and LumoEnergy
•The establishment of significant renewables, retirement and data
platforms over the last 5 years has largely set the future
composition of the portfolio for the next decade
•Infratil is well positioned in scalable high-growth sectors with
good sector and jurisdictional diversification
•The portfolio tightening over the last twelve months was
designed to reduce complexity and direct more capital into our
high conviction platforms and is well advanced
2
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Confidence around outlook has steadily improved
Transparency of new platforms and delivery of outcomes
•We have maintained a consistent approach to investment
over multiple market cycles
–Focus on earlier stage opportunities in well
researched areas where we have strong operating
capability
–Developing scalable platforms that can create future
proprietary re-investment opportunities
–Building a balanced portfoliocapable of delivering
capital growth
–Looking for strong mid-teen investment cases with
limited downside and an asymmetric upside risk
profile
•The flexible Infratil mandate continues to be a strong
source of advantage
3
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
The future looks promising
While there are gaps, the heavy lifting is substantially complete
•We have now established a balanced portfolio capable of exceeding target equity returns, while
operating safely betweendefined credit and liquidity parameters;
–Portfolio will require ongoing active management and carry a managed proportion of early
stage risks
–Strong capital structure with minimal restrictive covenants and duration matched with
underlying assets
•While not complete, the new-look portfolio has already enhanced our long-term TSR
performance across a larger pool of invested capital;
–Still looking for high quality assets to strengthen the cash generative core of our portfolio
–Retirement sector is at a critical juncture with execution and market considerations dictating
the pace of development and next steps
•The future IFT portfolio has a very different complexion given the proportion of higher growth
services and sectors
–Data infrastructure and renewables stand out with their global re-rating potential and scale
4
Paul Newfield
Portfolio Strategy
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Our portfolio reset is paying off for shareholders
Outstanding returns delivered over short, medium and long term
6
Notes: IFT measured until 31 March 2019 at a share price of $4.17
PeriodTSR
1 Year41.3%
5 Year20.1%
10 Year16.6%
Inception17.5%
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Infratil Share Price
TSR Performance
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
What we said we would do
Last year we outlined a strategy to tighten the portfolio
Investor Day 2018 Observations:What we said we would do:
•Strong pipeline of re-investment options
in our existing development platforms
•Portfolio complexity has been a driver of
NAV discount
•Tighten the portfolio
•Focus capital deployment on our
established growth and development
platforms
1
2
7
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Tightening the portfolio
Expect further activity in 2019
8
Conditional agreements reached on three
sales...
...with three ongoing strategic reviews
Australian Social Infrastructure Partnership (‘ASIP’)
•Aspire Schools
•New Royal Adelaide Hospital
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
ANU demonstrates the strategy in action
Case Study: ANU Student Accommodation
Investment thesis (2016):
•Cash generative core infra business (high single digit yield)
•Capital upside from future development options
•Early move into a large emerging PBSA opportunity
Achievements under IFT ownership:
•Transfer of portfolio from university ownership
•Execution of first organic expansion option
Exit Rationale:
•High quality asset not fully recognised in IFT share price
•Growing institutional investor understanding of the PBSA sector
•Competition in similar assets impacting IFT’s ability to grow to scale
in sector
IFT Outcome: 34% IRR
9
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Focusing capital on our growth platforms
Committing capital to our high conviction platforms
Capital committed
1
:
~$280 million
Project Phoebe (315MW)
Rio Bravo (238MW)
Capital committed
2
:
~$150 million
10
1
Value of new equity purchases under offer in 2018 by IFT ($102.9 million) and value of equity raise ($178.9 million)
2
Infratil’sshare of A$300 million in capital deployed in the year ended 31 March 2019
TiltLongroadCDC
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
CDC exemplifies our growth infrastructure focus
Defensive infra characteristics + rapid growth in demand
Investment thesis (2016):
•Rapid growth in data consumption and shift to outsourced data centres
•Significant opportunities for expansion
•Competitively advantaged to service sensitive Government data
Achievements under IFT ownership from acquisition date to today:
•Expanded Canberra from 40MW to 60MW; commenced construction on
23MW
•Secured Sydney sites with 7MW existing, 13MW in construction and
development potential for additional 100MW
•Major contract wins with Government and Hyperscale cloud customers
•Growth in EBITDA run rate from ~A$50 million to a ~A$90 million p.a.
(March 2019)
•Forecast EBITDA run rate of ~A$135 million at March 2020
11
IFT Outcome:
IRR of ~35% to date
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Our portfolio transition is well progressed
Portfolio as at Investor Day 2018
CORE CASH GENERATIVE ASSETS
Data
Infrastructure
Retirement &
Aged Care
Emerging
Platforms
Renewable
Energy
Future retirement DMF
assets and operational
renewable assets
•Student
accomm.
•Social infra.
12
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Our portfolio transition is well progressed
Portfolio post 2018-19 “tightening”
CORE CASH GENERATIVE ASSETS
Data
Infrastructure
Retirement &
Aged Care
Emerging
Platforms
Renewable
Energy
Future retirement DMF
assets and operational
renewable assets
13
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Portfoliodesigned to deliver our return target
We remain committed to a ten year 11-15% TSR target
11% -15%
Per annum
Return to
Shareholders
Management
Cost
1% of assets
Per annum
Leverage
Assumption
Average Debt
Funding 30%
at 6%p.a.
interest rate
Infratil
Portfolio
Core
Lower Risk
Core Plus /
Growth
Development
Higher Risk
Expected
Returns
8 –10%
Per annum
10 –15%
Per annum
15 –25%
Per annum
11% -15%
Per annum
Market returns continue to compress –active asset management required to achieve targeted return
14
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Moving to a “decluttered” portfolio
Smaller number of more substantial positions
26%
20%
23%
18%
8%
29%
19%
17%
10%
10%
6%
Trustpower
Wellington Airport
RetireAustralia
Tilt Renewables
CDC
NZ Bus
ANU
Perth Energy
ASIP
LongroadProperty & Other
Post “Decluttering”FY18 Portfolio
15
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Focusing on a few key sectors
Renewable energy, data infrastructure and airports dominate
39%
19%
17%
10%
6%
Renewable Energy
Airports
Data Infrastructure
Retirement
Transport
Australian Social Infrastructure
Energy
Property & Other
47%
20%
23%
8%
48%
20%
23%
8%
Post “Decluttering”FY18 Portfolio
16
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Tapping growth opportunities beyond New Zealand
Current growth platforms are focusing investment offshore
61%
38%
NZAUSUSA
50%
46%
Post “Decluttering”FY18 Portfolio
17
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Maintaining a balanced risk vs return profile
Evolving mix reflects strength of current development platforms
63%
30%
7%
CoreCore +Development
52%
28%
20%
Post “Decluttering”FY18 Portfolio
18
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Managing a dynamic portfolio
Key considerations shaping future portfolio mix
Currentgrowth and development platforms
•Options held across multiple markets
•Infratil controls the rate and prioritisation of development spend
•Development platforms “manufacture” core infra assets
Rate of growth of CDC
•On track to be Infratil’slargest investment
•Fundamentally shifts Infratil’sgrowth profile
Need to maintain portfolio balance as we grow
•Left to run, the portfolio will become underweight New Zealand core
19
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Infratil Portfolio Strategy
Key conclusions
Infratil’sportfolio strategy remains consistent
•Cash generating core assets supporting reinvestment in high returning growth platforms
We have executed on the plan presented at last year’s Investor Day
•“Portfolio tightening” is well advanced
•Capital deployment has been focused on our Data Infrastructure and Renewable Energy
platforms
•This strategy is generating outstanding shareholder returns
The future direction of the portfolio is now well set
•The Infratil portfolio is in balance to deliver our targeted returns
•Existing growth platforms will continue to drive earnings growth and capital deployment
•Portfolio mix will evolve as growth platforms grow, reinforcing need for strong New Zealand core
assets to maintain balance
20
Phillippa Harford
Performance &
Outlook
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Current portfolioRole
•Important role in cash generating core and source ofimputation credits
•Defensive characteristics as an essential service
•Reliable GDP+ earnings growth and strong reinvestment options
•Significant source ofcore cashflowsand defensive characteristics in economic downturns
•Exposure to aging population thematic and development of care services
•Cash generation with greenfield and brownfield development options
•Highly cash generative with near term emphasis on reinvestment
•Continuing to deliver rapid earnings growth
•Holds bothstable cash generating assets & a significant development pipeline
•Reinvestment focus with significant capital deployment in the near-term
•Delivery of significant development margins from capital-light model
•Expectation that adjacent investment opportunities will also emerge
Role of assets in the portfolio
Development platforms supported by cash generating assets
22
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Trustpower
Generation outlook remains strong
•Solid generation outlook, supported by long-term trend
towards electrification of transportation and industrial heat
•Well placed to support the transition to a low-emissions and
increased-renewable-electricity future
•Differentiated retail strategy focussed on bundled electricity
and telco products
•Business focus on digitalising and improving performance of
retail operations
•Retail consolidation options are likely to be important given
competitive environment and scale benefits
•Short term performance dictated by hydrology and spot prices
•Some regulatory risks arise through Electricity Price Review,
transmission pricing and zero-carbon policy implementation
23
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Wellington International Airport
High quality asset with GDP+ growth and attractive reinvestment options
•$300 million five year investment programme completed in
January 2019, with the opening of the Rydgeshotel
•Continues to provide reliable cashflows, supported by defensive
characteristics
•Increases in aircraft capacity and the success of the Singapore
service are underpinning growth
•Consultation over aeronautical charges has been postponed
pending further clarity about Wellington Airport’scapital
expenditure plan
•Forecast FY20 capex ~$100 million
•Work continues on consents required to extend the runway to
enable direct long haul services to/from central New Zealand
24
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
RetireAustralia
Strong long-term investment thematic with near term choices
•Population growth in the aging demographic supports the long-
term investment thematic
•Sector headwinds and execution challenges have resulted in a
slow down in unit resales
•Continuing demand for well-located villages
•Development pipeline of 833 Development-Approved units and
care apartments with near term options to scale to 1300 units
and care apartments
•Property market slowdown could present additional
opportunities for site acquisition
•Royal Commission into Aged Care relevant given its adjacency
to retirement living
25
Phillippa Harford
Performance &
Outlook
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Current portfolioEquity Value (NZD)Basis of Valuation
$1,125m•Market Price as at 8 April 2019
$750m -$800m•16x Multiple of forecast EBITDA (Auckland Airport >20x)
$290m -$320m•1x Multiple of Net Tangible Assets
$650m -$785m
•Independent Valuation as at 31 March 2019
•Mid-point implied share value of $2.34 (consistent with current market price)
Asset valuation and drivers
27
Updated valuations reflect a high quality portfolio of assets
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Current portfolioEquity Value (NZD)Basis of Valuation
$841m -$942m
•Independent Valuation as at 31 March 2019
•Includes A$42 million Infratil equity contribution in December 2018
•FY19 EBITDA run-rate A$90 million, increasing to A$135 million as at 31 March 2020
•Implied trading multiple of ~16 to 18x on a 1-year forward run-rate EBITDAF
•Blended cost of equity 11.5% to 12.5%
•Valuation only incorporates substantially contracted or highly probable
developments (Canberra and Sydney)
•Fyshwick2 (21MW) operational from December 2018 -over 50% contracted
•Eastern Creek (Sydney) acquisition December 2018 underpinned by significant new
customer contracts
$128m
•Independent Valuation as at 31 March 2019
•Equity Valuation Components:
–Operational Assets $31 million
–Turbine Inventory $11 million
–Near-term developments $76 million
–Balance of development pipeline $10 million
Asset valuation and drivers
Updated valuations reflect a high quality portfolio of assets
28
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
2019 Updated Guidance
Underlying EBITDAF guidance range revised to $535-$545 million
•Underlying EBITDAF guidance (year to 31 March 2019) revised to NZ$535-$545 million
•Net increase in estimated contribution from CDC, primarily from receipt of CDC’s draft 31 March 2019
investment property revaluations
•Conditional sale of ANU PBSA for $A162 million (NZ$169 million), and resulting increase in estimated
Initial Incentive Fee payable to Morrison & Co
•Increase in the estimated Initial Incentive Fee payable to Morrison and Co, primarily as a result of the
31 March 2019 valuations of CDC and Longroad
•Forecast LongroadRio Bravo development gain now expected to be recorded in FY20
•Additional Longroadoperating costs and estimated US tax expense
•Movements in forecast contributions from other portfolio entities
29
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
2019 Updated Guidance
Performance fees –movements from 30 September accrual
$Millions
September
Fair Value
Guide
September
Accrued
Fee
March
Independent
Valuation
March
Estimated
Fee
Canberra Data Centres59013.4841 -94264
LongroadEnergy16316.312822
Tilt Renewables470-650 -7852
Unrealised assets1,22329.71,73488
ANU Student Accommodation103(0.3)17012
•The Initial Incentive Fee assesses the performance of the assets over entire period since acquisition or establishment
•12% per annum hurdle and 20% fee for out-performance
•The September valuation of Longroad Energy included US$46.3 million of Mezzanine Debt that was subsequently
repaid
•The uplift in the Tilt valuation primarily reflects Infratil’s increased stake in Tilt following the takeover offer
($49.8 million) and Infratil’s contribution to Tilt’s recent equity raise ($178.9 million)
30
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
2020 Outlook
Underlying EBITDAF guidance range set at $510-$540 million
FY20 Underlying EBITDAF guidance range from continuing
operations set at $510-$540 million
•TrustpowerEBITDAF guidance of $205-$225 million
•Tilt EBITDAF guidance of A$122-$129 million
•CDC’s reported EBITDA -Infratil’sshare A$52 million
•Longroadcontribution assumes 3 development project
gains together with the Rio Bravo development gain
•No amounts are included in guidance for NZ Bus or
Perth Energy
•No Incentive Fees are forecast
2020 guidance is based on management’s current expectations and assumptions about the trading performance of Infratil’sinvestments and is subject to risks and
uncertainties, is dependent on prevailing market conditions continuing throughout the outlook period and assumes no major changes in the composition of the Infratil
investment portfolio. Trading performance and market conditions can and will change, which may materially affect the guidanceset out above.
31
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
($Millions)March 2019
Net bank debt (cash on hand)45
Infratil Infrastructure bonds905
Infratil Perpetual bonds
232
Market value of equity2,332
Total capital3,514
Gearing (net debt/total capital)34%
Infratil undrawn bank facilities403
100% subsidiaries cash55
Funds available458
Moderate gearing and funds available
Capital structure positioned to maintain flexibility for investment
•Total Infratil bonds on issue were extended
following the November 2018 maturity of
$111 million, which was replaced with two issues
totalling $246 million
•Infratil bank facilities extended to $473 million
•Funds available exclude the proceeds from the
conditional sale of Infratil’sinterest in the ANU
PBSA for $A162 million (NZ$169 million) which
are expected to be received in April 2019
32
Jason Boyes
New investment
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Future portfolio choices
Available capacity can be used to support existing platforms or create a new one
Trustpower
CDC
Wellington AirportRetireAustralia
Tilt Renewables
Other
Longroad
FY20F Portfolio
Available capacity and forecast
divestment proceeds
34
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Future portfolio choices
Looking for new investment opportunities
•Significant development
underway in existing
platforms
•Ability to extend
platforms to other
jurisdictions
•A number of core assets
realised
•Portfolio could become
underweight core as
development platforms
grow
•Continuing to invest to
identify the next platform
Investment opportunities
Cash generating core
Extending growth platformsNew opportunities
35
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Replace and top-up the cash generating core
Keeping the portfolio in balance
•Some core assets realised
•Left to run, the portfolio will become
underweight core
•Imputation credits helpful, but not critical
•Issues are finding value and managing
portfolio complexity
36
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Extending growth and development platforms
Optimisingexisting and new opportunities
•Development rate in existing growth and
development platforms
•Extending existing platforms to other
jurisdictions
•Actively seeking renewable energy
development opportunities beyond the US
•Extending Retirement and Data &
Communications platforms to other
jurisdictions interesting in the medium term
37
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
A case study for extending to other jurisdictions
LongroadEnergy could be a template for future extensions
Investment thesis is apparent elsewhere too
•Strong sector tailwinds
•Aligned with existing operational capability
•Jurisdictional diversification
•Increased scale for origination and procurement
•Strong institutional demand for operating assets once developed
Key factors to executing successfully
•Strong local, aligned management team
•Flexible capital, able to take development risk and hold operating
assets through market volatility
•Aligned co-investors
Infratil Outcomes: NZ$154m
injected, NZ$152m returned,
NZ$120-130m valuation
38
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Establishing a renewables platform in Europe
Rationale looks just as strong as Longroad
Opportunity in Europe looks attractive
•If anything, stronger sector tailwinds than the US, with more regulatory support
–Late 2018, IHS Markit forecast 140GW of renewables build in the EU by 2021 vs 75GW in the US
•Feed-in-tariff and similar support mechanisms rolling off, creating complexity, and challenging
undercapitalised developers
•Jurisdictional diversity within Europe –able to optimise development priorities and rates
•Very strong institutional demand for operating assets
Execution in Europe likely to look similar to Longroad
•Strong local, aligned development partners
•Flexible capital and aligned co-investors
•This time, we have our track record to help us originate
•But cognisant of local differences and execution risks
39
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
New opportunities
Continuing to invest to identify the next platform
•Potentially long lead times, however, Infratil’strack record is built on
being “ahead of the pack”
•Looking beyond renewable energy to decarbonisation more broadly
–Alternative fuels, carbon capture and storage
•Changes to the energy system
–Decentralised generation, smart networks
•Next generation data and communication infrastructure
•Other sectors such as waste and social infrastructure
40
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Appendices
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
Canberra Data Centres Valuation
Additional valuation information
Valuation Principles
•The fair market valuation of IFT’s 48.2% share of CDC as at 31 March 2019 is between NZ$841 –$942 million
•The independent valuer adopted a Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”) valuation methodology to assess the fair
market value of CDC
•The fair market value of CDC was assessed based on the net present value of the forecast distributions to the
equity holders of CDC
•The equity discount rate, where appropriate, incorporates specific equity risk premiums applied to reflect the
additional risk on development assets (Fyshwick 2, Hume 4, Hume 5, Eastern Creek 2 and Eastern Creek 3)
Existing Facilities and Development
•Hume 1, 2 & 3, Fyshwick 1 are mature data centres which are fully contracted
•Fyshwick 2 was operational from December 2018 and is now 50%+ contracted, with contracted capacity to be
delivered by 2H CY2019
•Canberra and Sydney capacity contracted in CY2018 (24MW) will be deployed over the next 2 years and
underpin the value of CDC’s development pipeline
•Funding requirements completely de-risked for explicitly valued development pipeline (Fyshwick 2, Hume 4,
Eastern Creek 2 & 3)
•Eastern Creek 4, 5 and 6 are all excluded from 31 March 2019 valuation
42
Key valuation metricsMarch 2019
EBITDA forecastA$90m
Current run-rate EBITDAA$85m
Equity Discount Rate11.5%-12.5%
Hume 1, 2 & 3, Fyshwick 1 40MW
1
Fyshwick 221MW
Hume 4 & 5Up to 50MW
Eastern Creek 1 & 219MW
Eastern Creek 3~25MW
Total debt facilitiesA$915m
Drawn facilities A$535m
1
Site capacity includes IT load and data centre operational load
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
LongroadEnergy Valuation
Additional valuation information
Valuation Principles
•The fair market valuation of IFT’s share of Longroad as at 31 March 2019 is NZ$128 million
•The independent valuer adopted a sum-of-the parts valuation approach to assess the fair market value of
Longroad. A DCF valuation methodology was employed to value income-producing assets and near-term
development options:
–Phoebe Solar, which is currently under construction, has been sold and is expected to enter commercial
operation in September 2019. The Rio Bravo Wind project is under construction, and has been sold,
with commercial operation expected in June 2019
–Prospero I is a 380MW solar project in Texas. Development of the project is on track for final notice to
proceed (FNTP) in the second quarter of CY2019
–El Campo is a 243MW wind project in Texas which LEH acquired mid-stage in 2018. The project is on
track for FNTP in the second quarter of CY2019
–Foxhound is a 108MW solar project in Virginia and is expected to begin construction in the third quarter
of CY2019
–Minnesota Wind is a 70MW project to repower operating wind projects acquired in 2017. The
repowered projects are expected to enter commercial operation in June 2020 and to then be sold
–The expected development margins from these projects are within the range previously indicated by
Longroad
–Early-stage development pipeline and wind turbine generators were valued at cost while the balance of
Longroad’s assets were valued at depreciated replacement cost
Key valuation metricsMarch 2019
Solar development margins$100-400/kWac
Wind development margins$50-300/kW
Phoebe Solar and Rio Bravo
Wind
553MW
2019 near term development
assets
800MW
Total development pipeline
assets
Over 7GW
Operating assets (excluding
Minnesota Wind)
605MW
Longroad Energy Services
(Assets under management)
1,476MW
43
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
International Portfolio Incentive Fees
Overview
•The International Portfolio comprises all Non-New Zealand Entities, being Infratil Limited (‘Infratil’) portfolio entities with
more than 50% of their assets domiciled outside New Zealand. The International Fund Management Agreement provides
an incentive for Morrison & Co Infrastructure Management Limited (‘Morrison & Co’) to identify attractive international
opportunities that meet the risk and return objectives of Infratil.
•The Agreement anticipated the relative scarcity of New Zealand based opportunities as the Infratil portfolio grew and
recognisedthe additional costs and complexity involved with origination and management of international assets.
•International Investments (including Australian Assets) are eligible for International Portfolio Incentive Fees (‘Incentive
Fees’) under the Management Agreement between Morrison & Co and Infratil.
•There are three components to the Incentive Fee calculation, which are calculated every 31 March:
1.the International Portfolio Initial Incentive Fee (‘Initial Incentive Fees’);
2.the International Portfolio Annual Incentive Fee (‘Annual Incentive Fees’); and
3.the International Portfolio Realised Incentive Fee (‘Realised Incentive Fees’).
44
Additional information
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2019
International Portfolio Incentive Fees
1.International Portfolio Initial Incentive Fee
•Every 31 March, it is necessary to determine whether Infratil has any International Investments which have been held
continuously by the Company “from a date between (and including) the third preceding 1 April and the second preceding
31 March”. To the extent that there are assets that meet this criterion, an independent valuation is performed on the asset
to determine whether an Initial Incentive Fee is payable toMorrison & Co.
•All investments that are acquired in any one financial year are grouped together for the purposes of the Initial Incentive
Fee, and an Initial Incentive Fee is payable at 20% of the outperformance of those assets against a benchmark of 12% p.a.
compounding.
2.International Portfolio Annual Incentive Fee
•Thereafter International Portfolio Assets are grouped together, and an Annual Incentive Fee is payable at 20% of the
outperformance of those assets against the higher of a benchmark of 12% p.a. after tax, relative to the most recent
31 March valuation, or cost.
3.International PortfolioRealisedIncentive Fee
•Realised Incentive Fees are payable on the realised gains from the sale or other realisation of Non-New Zealand Portfolio
Securities at 20% of the outperformance (since the last valuation date) against the higher of, a benchmark of 12% p.a.
after tax, relative to the most recent 31 March valuation, or cost.
•NoInternational Portfolio Assetshave been realisedin the year to 31 March 2019.
45
Additional information
---
Infratil Investor Day
2019
›Macro Technology Trends
›Global Data Centre Trends
›Government Hosting Strategy
›ANZ Data Centre Trends
›Eastern Creek Acquisition
Agenda
›Eastern Creek Strategic Opportunities
›Report Card –Strategic Goals
›Report Card –Ecosystem
›Report Card –Financials
›The Year Ahead
2
3
›Everyday, increasing amounts
of data is captured, stored and
accessed
›The boundaries of technology
intelligence and its use are
being pushed daily
›Secure 24/7 availability and
rapid delivery are critical to
clients
Macro Technology Trends
Cloud migration
›Data and processes are increasingly migrating to cloud hosted environments
›More Software and Apps than ever are being delivered from the cloud
Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, data analytics and High
Performance Computing (HPC) research
›Driven by applications that automate processes or personalise user experiences
›Recent aggressive investment from big players hiring AI engineers
5G (and locally NBN) –an accelerating directional trend
›Faster speeds, improved connectivity and enhanced quality of service are driving
increased data consumption and storage.
›Smart phones are now the chosen user interface over PC’s and tablets
Autonomous vehicles / driverless cars –a trend to watch
›Mid-term trend but the expectation is that proof of commercialisation occurs in the next
12-18 months. Vehicles will be highly connected, micro, mobile data centres
Security –Biometrics, Cybersecurity and Information supply chains
›Awareness of broader data issues and impacts have rapidly risen up the agenda
›Significant research, investment and effort is being directed to address the risks
Global Data Centre Trends
Client Trends
›Security, Business Continuity and Resilience remain the top client concerns
›The biggest growth area is from hyperscale providers
›Expect market consolidation towards the biggest providers
›Hyperscale providers intimately understand their needs and infrastructure requirements
›Speed to market is the priority creating a move towards bespoke co-location solutions
›Hyperscale favour large DC campuses in order to harness efficiencies and growth
›Information supply chain resilience is a topic of escalating importance
›Connectivity; both on campus, and between secure data centres has to be available
Sector Trends
›Client needs are propelling growth in the larger DC class = greatest addressable market
›The fastest growing Co-location markets are the overseas interconnection hubs like Sydney
›Consequently single client and in house enterprise Data Centre numbers are declining.
In the US 80% of large enterprise traditional DC’s are expected to be shut down by 2022
›Co-location is a mature offering but presents multiple growth opportunities such as where
Cloud and legacy equipment colocation can be flexibly accommodated for large National
Critical Infrastructure (NCI) users
›Local and regional specialists will continue to provide meaningful competition to the global
providers
›Large scale users are shaping
infrastructure and markets
›Demand is for large,
highly connected, co-location
data centre campuses
›The Data Centre market is
strongest at interconnection
hubs, like Sydney
4
Government Hosting Strategy
The strategy provides a new framework that strengthens:
›data sovereignty,
›supply chain and data centre ownership provisions
The strategy objective is to:
›increase security,
›protect privacy and
›improve resilience of data infrastructure
›Data Centres are recognised as
the cornerstones that safeguard
government held data
›The strategy addresses where
data is kept, the security it enjoys
and how it is moved and shared
›Managed Service and Cloud
providers MUSTbe located in a
Sovereign or Assured data centre
5
A new Australian Whole-of-Government Hosting Strategy was released on 29 March 2019
“This strategy will ensure that we have a trusted, secure hosting ecosystem, including data
centre and network infrastructure, and our services can rely on the data being safe and
secure throughout the supply chain”
The Hon Michael Keenan MP, Minister for Human Services and Digital Transformation
The Strategy includes a requirement for data centres that host high value government data
must achieve certification as either
Secure connectivity between certified data centres is specifically addressed with focus on the benefits of ICON
Sovereign
Assured
data centres
data centres
ANZ Data Centre Trends
›Strong demand driven by data
growth and continued
outsourcing activities
›Market remains firmly co-
location
›Hyperscale deals dominate the
take up of quality product
›Increasing demand for high density, secure and resilient data centres
›Rising demand for flexibility; DC’s need capability to support cloud and high performance computing
applications alongside client legacy equipment so creating hybrid computing outcomes for clients
›Hyperscale cloud vendors are dominating the leasing of co-location data centrecapabilities
›Data Centre modernisation is projected to emerge as high priority for large scale end users in Australia
›Government Data Centre consolidation is stimulating demand among third party, flexible, multi-tenant data
centres that can offer hybrid computing outcomes
›Co-location services continue to dominate DC revenues where growth has mostly been driven by hyperscale
cloud vendors, government, large enterprises and National Critical Infrastructure (NCI) clients that require
strict data confidentiality and complete management control of their operations
›AWS, MSFT Azure and Google have increased their uptake of wholesale data centre capacities of late
6
Frost & Sullivan estimate an increase in wholesale
colocation revenues in Australia by close to 20%
year on year, which is higher than retail co-location
Eastern Creek Acquisition
›145,000sqm Data Centre campus is located
36km west of Sydney’s CBD
›Existing building is 6 years old with zero
shutdowns or failures
›Two existing 6,000sqm data halls; DC1 is a
7MW ICT load data hall that is ~85%
occupied and income generating, including
Government clients. DC2 is white space that
is being fitted out to deliver 13MW of ICT
load
›The existing building is security accredited
and has fully operational administration,
loading dock and storage areas
›Electrical high voltage sub-station already
established on site
›Gives CDC a very significant footprint in
Australia’s leading data centre market
›The facility is perfectly positioned to address
Australia’s fastest growing sector –
hyperscale
›CDC can deliver ‘outside Canberra’
geographic diversity which is highly attractive
to existing customers.
›CDC purchased a high quality,
operational Data Centre with
significant growth options
›The existing large scale Data
Centre had no hyperscale
presence
›Significant development potential
to become ANZ’s largest data
centre campus (120MW+)
7
Eastern Creek
Sydney
Eastern Creek Strategic
Opportunities
›The campus meets hyperscale
needs; offering rapid initial
deployment and significant
future runway
›Extension space is already
leased and being fitted out
›Opportunity to tailor future
development to their needs
8
›Good Initial Income with low vacancy risk in DC1 –underwrites the purchase for early years
›Upside–by upgrading the existing DC1 and leasing up the vacant racks
›Income Growth –DC2 leased with fit out underway, income from July 2019
›Short Term Development –Design work underway on the first new building ‘DC3’ (25MW of ICT load).
Income from early 2021
›Vision–Further 3 new DC’s (each 25MW of ICT load) to create 120MW ICT load campus of 6 DC’s
›Capacity can be provisioned very rapidly through reduced development timeframes
›Ability to serve Sydney based National Critical Infrastructure providers locally
›Bi-directional runways
Report Card –Strategic Goals
›Quality projects delivered on
time and within budget
›The acquisition’s ability to
value add exceeded our
expectations
›‘Next level’ potential in
Sydney to be unlocked over
the short to medium term
9
We said...We delivered...
Deliver Fyshwick2 (21MW total load)
✓Fyshwick 2 –Operational December 2018
and now ~50% contracted
Commence Hume 4 construction
(23MW ICT load)
✓Hume 3 fully leased
✓Hume 4 –Foundations complete, ground
floor slab underway
Acquisitions and geographic diversity
✓Acquired Eastern Creek site with existing
income in December 2018 and massive
potential
We said...We delivered...
We want to expand cloud
✓~24MW contracted with delivery
underway
✓~24MW Reserved or First Right of
Refusal (FROR)
Organic growth from existing clients✓>2MW contracted and delivered
Non organic expansion from new agencies
✓5 new agencies contracted following
tenders, plus other new clients
Geographical expansion
✓Footprint in ANZ’slargest Data Centre
market, Sydney
Brisbane
Sydney
Canberra
Eastern Creek
Hume
Fyshwick
Report Card –Ecosystem
›Depth and breadth of
Ecosystem expansion was
even greater than we had
anticipated
10
Report Card –Financials
›Growth rate has accelerated
›Business value increased in
last 12 months
›Security of income/tenure
increased
11
We said...We delivered...
22.5% Year-on-Year run rate growth
✓Achieved 35%+ growth; EBITDA run rate at
31 March 2019 of ~$90m
$100m Capex investment
✓$300m deployed that includes the Sydney
purchase
Business Growth
✓$85m equity raised
✓$300m extension to debt facilities secured
to $915m. Circa $535m drawn
Strengthen the expanded Ecosystem. WALE
was 4.2 years, and 10.9 years with options
✓WALE (Weighted Average Lease Expiry)
increased to 9.0 years, and 16.7 years with
options
The Year Ahead
›Bring 24MW capacity to income production
›Eastern Creek DC2 (10MW out of 13MW
potentialICT load) to go live in 2019
›Go live of Hume 4 (23MW ICT load) by early
2020
›Commence construction of Eastern Creek
DC3 (25MW ICT load)
›Capex of $350m+ building future capacity
›Execute and deliver both
short and mid-term
›Establish a sustainable
runway for continued mid
term growth
›Grow EBITDA run rate by over 50% Year-on-Year
›Expand and secure income for Eastern Creek
›Extend financial facility headroom
›Grow National Critical Infrastructure client base
›Further strategic land acquisitions
›Develop managed services and connectivity
12
Questions?
---
INVESTOR DAY
Longroad Energy
April 10, 2019
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
2
The information set forth in this document (including any written materials provided herewith) is proprietary and shall be maintained in strict
confidence. Each recipient hereof acknowledges and agrees that the contents of this presentation (i) constitute proprietary and confidential
information that LongroadEnergy Holdings, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Longroad”) derive independent economic value from not being
generally known and (ii) are the subject of reasonable efforts to maintain their secrecy. The recipient further agrees that the contents of this
document are a trade secret, the disclosure of which is likely to cause substantial and irreparable competitive harm to Longroad. Any reproduction or
distribution of this document, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents, without the prior written consent of Longroad, is prohibited. This
document shall be returned to Longroadupon request.
This document contains various estimates of financial information and valuations of securities. While all such information ispresented based on the
exercise of Longroad’sreasonable judgment, there can be no assurance that such information will prove to be accurate or that such valuations reflect
the true fair market value of the securities referenced. In addition, certain factual statements made herein are based on information from various
sources prepared by other parties. While such sources are believed by Longroadto be reliable, Longroaddoes not assume any responsibility for the
accuracy or completeness of such information.
CONFIDENTIALITY
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.3
•Introduction
•Development Company
•Operating Company
•Services Company
•Wrap-Up and Questions
AGENDA
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.4
•Focused on North American renewables
(excluding residential)
•Founded April 2016 and funded October 2016
•Flexible business model and capital focused on
three segments:
–Development
–Operating Assets
–Services
•Pre-Longroad Track Record
–Completed 3.3 GW wind and solar in 32
projects since 2004
LONGROAD
ENERGY
PARTNERS
20%
40%40%
Ownership
LONGROAD REFRESHER
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.5
LONGROAD: A SOLID START
Solid growth inception to
today
1.2 GW acquired and developed
1.4 GW services under contract
~$2 B third party capital raised to date
2019 growth plan in motion
Up to 800 MW of new development deals
~$100 mm Longroad cash and LCs
Requiring $2 B of third party capital
Further growth potential in services
Solid financial performance
to 3/31/2019
$76 mm currently invested
$77 mm realized profit
Market drivers
Politics steady
Competitive
Subsidy phase outs
Tariffs
Flexible
Capital
DevCo
ServicesOpCo
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.6
•Develop and/or acquire and
control
high quality assets;
optimize balance between
hold and monetize
•O&M, asset management,
and remote operations
•Adds value to asset buyers
and future owners
•For Longroad assets as
well as third parties
•Longer term, lower
volatility business
•Acquire operating assets
•Opportunistic value
creation
•Option to hold longer term
or fix and then monetize
BUSINESS MODEL AND SEGMENTS
•Higher risk, higher return
opportunities
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.7
HIGH VELOCITY DEVELOPMENT CAPITAL
Cash Facility+Credit Facility
$100
mm
Cash Spend
•Development
•Overhead
•Investments
Return of
capital
Cost of
capital and
profits to
shareholders,
net of write-
offs and
overhead
$150
mm
Commitments
•Pre-financial close
•PPA/interconnections
•Lease obligations
•EPC and long lead
vendors, e.g. turbines,
panels
LC capacity
returned
•Costs and
Fees
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.8
INVESTMENT THESIS: “WALL” OF CAPITAL
Private Equity & Infrastructure Funds
Pension Funds & Insurance
Strategic Acquirers
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.9
Utility Scale
•New wind
build 2021-
2030 = ~28
GW
•New solar
build 2021-
2030 = ~41
GW
•~ $60 B
investment
opportunity
•Driven by
retirements
INVESTMENT THESIS: SCALE
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.10
Near Term Opportunity Set (to 2023)
•> 100 GW expected new build
•> $85 B investment opportunity
•Results in > 250 GW total installed
capacity by end of 2023
•2-4% market share = Longroad success
INVESTMENT THESIS: 5 YEARS OF GROWTH
US Renewable Market Size
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.11
KEY DRIVER: STATE LEVEL DEMAND
Source: EQ Research
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.12
KEY DRIVER: CORPORATE PPA DEMAND
Source: Schneider Electric
Summary of 2018 Corporate PPAs
•57 deals
•70% wind, 30% solar
•42% first time buyers
•58% repeat buyers
•13 deals in TX
•13 in SPP
•~50% broker driven
Deal Size (MW)
2018
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.13
PERFORMANCE TO DATE: OPCO & DEVCO
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
201620172018
Longroad: MW Acquired and Developed
Federal StreetMN WindMilford WindRioPhoebe
+81% YOY
685
553
ProjectMWStatus
Federal Street Solar299Retained
MN Wind80Retained
Milford Wind306Retained
Rio Wind238Sold
Phoebe Solar315Sold
Total
1,238
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.14
RETAINED ASSETS: 685 MW
Federal Street (Solar)
299 MW
•Buy and hold
•Optionality in lessor
buyouts and
recapitalizations
Milford Wind
306 MW
•Buy and hold
•Attractive service
contract for Longroad
•Long term option value
given location
Minnesota Wind
80 MW
•Buy and hold
•Option to repower
Prospero I Solar
379 MW
dc
•Andrews County, TX
•FNTP Q2 2019
•COD Q2 2020
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.15
DEVCO ASSETS: 553 MW
Rio Wind (Texas)
238 MW
•LEH developed, financed,
and sold; also providing
construction management
•LES to provide O&M, AM,
and ROC services
•Project costs $301 mm
•Mortenson EPC
•Vestas technology
•15-year hedge with Citigroup
•Berkshire Hathaway tax
equity investor
•Sold 100% to Sammons
Financial in Q42018
•COD Q2 2019
•Development gain not
booked until COD
Phoebe Solar (Texas)
315 MW
dc
•LEH developed, financed,
and sold at FNTP; also
providing construction
management
•Project costs $307 mm
•First Solar EPC
•First Solar technology
•12-year hedge with Shell
•Wells Fargo tax equity
investor
•Sold 100% to Innergex
Renewables in Q32018
•COD Q3 2019
•Development gain booked
Prospero I Solar
379 MW
dc
•Andrews County, TX
•FNTP Q2 2019
•COD Q2 2020
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.16
2019 DEVCO ASSETS: 800 MW
El Campo Wind
243 MW
•Knox County, TX
•FNTP Q2 2019
•COD Q2 2020
Prospero I Solar
379 MW
dc
•Andrews County, TX
•FNTP Q2 2019
•COD Q2 2020
MN Wind Repower
70 MW
•Lincoln and Pipestone
Counties, MN
•FNTP Q3 2019
•COD Q3 2020
Foxhound Solar
108 MW
dc
•Halifax County, VA
•FNTP Q4 2019
•COD Q4 2020
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.17
EOY 2019
•Objective to achieve
financial closing on four
additional development
deals (800 MW)
–Development and
timing risk remains
–Project sale timing TBD
•Potential to exceed 2 GW in
total acquired and
developed
EXPECTED PERFORMANCE: OPCO & DEVCO
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2016201720182019
Longroad: MW Acquired and Developed
+45% YOY
Prospero I Solar
El Campo Wind
MN Wind
Foxhound Solar
Total > 2.0 GW
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.18
•Rio Wind
–238 MW
–FNTP Q2 2018
–COD Q2 2019
WIND SAFE HARBOR STRATEGY
$44 mm safe
harbor
investment
in Vestas
components
(December
2016)
•El Campo
–242 MW
–FNTP Q2 2019 (est.)
–COD Q2 2020 (est.)
•MN Wind (Repower)
–70 MW
–FNTP Q3/Q4 2019 (est.)
–COD Q2/Q3 2020 (est.)
Catalyzed > $75~95 mm
gross profit plus capital
return ($44 mm)
Note: Pro forma for El Campo
and MN Wind FNTP
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.19
COMPREHENSIVE END TO END SERVICES
•Commercial
optimization and
value creation
•Compliance
•Risk management
•Energy
Management
•Contract and
Warranty
management
•Financial partner
relationships (e.g.,
tax equity)
•Treasury and cash
management
•Reporting (e.g.
accounting and tax)
•Legal support
•Environmental
management
•24/7/365 remote
monitoring,
including
curtailment
management and
remote resets
•Utility, ISO and RTO
interface
management
•Data-monitoring,
collection &
analysis
•Resource
assessment &
performance
improvements
•Performance
reporting
•Total project
oversight
•Safety
•OEM management
•Warranty support
•Preventative
maintenance (e.g.,
blade inspections)
•Balance of plant
operations &
maintenance
•Spare parts and
supply chain
management
•Aftermarket product
installations
•Community
outreach and
support
Balance of Plant
Services
Asset
Management
24/7/365 &
Analytics
End-to-end platform and
internal capabilities designed
to maximize long-term asset
performance and value
Greenbyte
(Monitoring
& Data
Analytics)
Sage X3
(Finance &
Accounting
System)
External Data
(e.g., ISO
data)
PowerHub
(Asset Management Platform)
Integrated User Dashboard: Operational, Financial,
Other Data
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.20
•Longroad Energy Services
•1,476 MW to EOY 2018
–685 MW Longroad owned
–791 MW third party
PERFORMANCE TO DATE: SERVICES
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
201620172018
MW Under Contract
~1.5 GW in
2 years
Third Party
Wind (Rio)
Third Party
Solar
Third Party
Wind
Longroad Owned – Milford Wind
Longroad Owned – MN Wind
Longroad Owned – Fed St Solar
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2016201720182019
MW Under Contract
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.21
EOY 2019
•256 MW new growth in
advanced discussions
–Project sales could
bring further growth
–Pursuit of other third
party business
EXPECTED PERFORMANCE: SERVICES
+8% YOY
(Advanced
Discussions)
Third Party
Wind
Total 1.7 GW
Third Party
Solar
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.22
PERFORMANCE TO DATE: CAPITAL RAISING
1,702
307
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Debt, Tax Equity, M&ALCs
Third Party Capital Raising
Inception to 3/31/2019
($ mm)
Lenders
Tax Equity
M&A
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.23
PERFORMANCE TO DATE: FINANCIAL
Net $76 mm
invested in
the business
$77 mm
realized profit
Note: Excludes LES
Capital invested
Capital returned
Realized profit
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.24
Note: Excludes LES
EXPECTED PERFORMANCE: FINANCIAL
Realized (3/31/2019)
Unrealized
>$200 mm
of realized
plus
unrealized
cumulative
profit
Unrealized
profit on
closed deals -
Low
Unrealized
profit on
closed deals
- High
Projected
capital
invested
Projected
capital
returned
Projected
profit on
2019
portfolio -
Low
Projected
profit on
2019
portfolio -
High
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.25
POST 2019
• Well positioned with our solar pipeline (> 7 GW)
• Evaluating panel supply and safe harbor options
similar to wind
Growth expected to
remain, especially in solar
out to 2023
• Insolated Longroad from near term tariff and trade
dispute exposure through commitment to First Solar
panels for a significant portion of our pipeline
Tariffs and Trade Disputes
• Distributed generation
• Operating assets
• Storage
Flexible Capital Opens
the Lens on the Market
Flexible
Capital
DevCo
ServicesOpCo
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.26
•Real momentum and
traction with solid deal flow,
growth, and attractive
returns
•Provides incremental
growth and adds scale to
the overall business and is
an important strategic
offering
•Continual flow of M&A
opportunities plus
improving the financial
and technical
performance of
Longroad’sassets
WRAP UP
THANK YOU
---
Tilt Renewables
Infratil Investor Day
10 April 2019
AGENDA
•12 month highlights
•Delivering the strategy
•Current company position
•Look to the future
Overall Highlights forFY2019
3
Operational
Performance
•Fleet availability 96.7% (11
months)
•Full year production >2TWh
•Team size up to 43
•Trading electricity
commenced and LGCs
continued
•Safety performance to be
improved
•Large fleet (322 machines, 6
sites, 2 countries)
•Oldest turbines providing
useful experience
•Experience with latest
turbines also useful
Shareholder
Value Growth
•Salt Creek 54MW delivered
(A$100M)
•Dundonnell336MW in
construction (~A$560M),
A$20-25M annual cash flow
contribution
•Secured ~A$260M equity
and ~A$300M debt
•Waverley progressing to
investment decision
•Snowtown battery
progressing carefully
•~NZ$1.126B market
capitalisation* (this time last
year ~NZ$563M) =+100%
Pipeline
Enhancement
•Liverpool up to 1GW
•Waverley now 130MW
•Consented solar at 660MW
•Total pipeline to 3440MW
•25 projects, in 5 AU States
and both islands in NZ
•13 projects progressed to
near term ready
•Storage and firming options
available, including several
battery sites
•NZ pipeline expansion
* At 1 April 2019
Operational Highlights forFY2019
4
Soft Q4 wind brings full year production back to “P50”
•9 months production to 31 December 2018 was 1.6 TWh
•Soft March quarter wind conditions in AU and NZ
•Full year production was just above 2 TWh, in-line with
long term expectations
Development progress provides some EBITDAF upside
•Dundonnell Financial Close -14 November 2018
•Current year external spend and TLT labourcosts capitalised
•Waverley Wind Farm continues to progress
•Turbine procurement well advanced on 130MW layout
•Partnering with Genesis Energy on offtake
•Tracking along pathway to 2019 investment decision
FY2019 EBITDAF result expected to be at lower end of A$134 to A$138 million guidance range
(noting this range was increased from the original A$120 to A$127 million range)
Opening of Vestas Renewables Energy Hub following VRET successful bid
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Q1 YTDQ2 YTDQ3 YTDFull Year
TLT portfolio production (TWh)
Actual FY17Actual FY18Actual FY19
Revenue Contract Mix (incl. Dundonnell)
•Salt Creek delivered, on time and budget
•Dundonnellcontracted at 87% -maintains room
for further merchant exposure in portfolio
•Majority of production (>80%) contracted out to
2035 (key differentiator)
•PPA counterparties are Tier 1 retailers in Australia
and New Zealand plus Victorian Government
•Waverley set for investment decision late in 2019
05
Source: Tilt Renewables indicative P50 production offtake profile
Portfolio generation
GWh
per annum
Strategy Execution –Setting Up Our Future
Strong counterparties added
Partnering
At demerger
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
20192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035
Existing Contracts
New DDWF contracts
Uncontracted Production
636 MW operational across 322 turbines →973 MW with Dundonnell across 402 turbines
Operational and Development Projects -Geographical View
06
1.3GW pipe in NSW
0.7GW pipe in QLD
SummarisedCompany Update –At Demerger vs Today
07
2,300MW+
Demerger (October 2016)Today (April 2019)
Renewablescapacity MW
Demerger
(October 2016)
Today
(April 2019)
Key progress
Operational582636
Salt Creek WF delivered
Construction-336
Dundonnell WF in construction
Committed Portfolio582972
+390MW (+67%)
Approved~860~2,700
NEWSolar/ battery options
Seeking Approval~1,000~300
Medium-term options progressed
Feasibility~370~440
NEW QLD and NSW focus
DevelopmentPipeline MW~2,230~3,440
+1,210MW
TLTPortfolio + Pipeline~2,800~4,400
+1,600MW
2,800
MW
2.5 years
A$660M new
investment
committed
4,400
MW
08
The Future for TLT?
Operational Outlook forFY2020
9
FY2020 earnings reflects portfolio before Dundonnell
•Full 12 months of Salt Creek under Meridian PPA
•P50 portfolio production circa 2 TWh
•Energy pricing reflects largely contracted position
•LGCs fully contracted (via PPA or forward sales)
•Operations & maintenance fully contracted
•Dundonnell will still be under construction at March 2020
Corporate / Development spend ‘right sized’
•Team sized to be Dundonnell ops-ready and bring further
investment options from the pipeline
•Discretionary development ‘baseline’ spend ~ A$7M
FY2020 is a springboard year before Dundonnell comes on line
by mid FY2021 with full year cash EBITDAF uplift ~A$45M
FY2020 EBITDAF guidance expected to be in the range of A$122 to A$129 million
AreaRelative to FY19
Production
P50 assumed, Salt Creek full year
offset by some SA curtailment
Energy pricing
in line, full year Salt Creek under
PPA offsets Snowtown 1 merchant
uplift
LGC pricing
in line. Non-PPA LGCs fully
contracted at higher prices for Cal-
2019 vintage, Cal-2020 prices lower
Opex
Snowtown 2 and Tararua 1&2 O&M
$/MWh step-up
New projects
No budgeted Dundonnellrevenue
or cost impact to FY20 EBITDAF
Corporate
Moderate growth in lnewith scale
of business
Development
Baseline in line with history plus
ability to flex up/down with market
conditions
Long-term Fundamentals for Australian Renewables Remain Encouraging
•Decarbonisation of Australia’s electricity market will continue over the next 20 –30 years, as coal fired power stations reach ‘end
of life’ and are replaced by lower cost renewables
•Private sector investment in new coal-fired capacity is unlikely and Government underwriting is looking doubtful
•Recenttransition to international gas pricing make CCGTs uneconomic for coal replacement
NEM wide coal-fired generation closure profile (life based)
Renewable costs have fallen below newbuild coal/gas
010
Source: AEMOSource: Lazard’s LevelisedCost of Energy (LCOE) Analysis—Version 12.0
(Prices USD)
011
Energy Transition Underway in Australia
Relative change in NEM capacity mix
Source: AEMO Integrated System Plan –Generation mix forecasts –neutral case
~35 GW ‘Grid
Scale’
Renewables
Opportunity
012
Energy Mix Change Depends on the State
Source: AEMO Integrated System Plan –Generation mix forecasts
Key Points
•Overall growth in demand
•Move away from coal
•Utility storage plays a role, especially in
heavy solar penetration areas
•Transmission system must adapt
Generation Mix
Black coal
Brown Coal
Gas/Liquid/Biomass
Hydro
Wind
Utility solar
DER(rooftop PV and battery)
Utility storage
013
Australian Market -Short Term Pain is Real
Policy
Energy & Climate will be
Federal election issues
COP21 reductions remain
committed to
Policy change and market
intervention risk
QLD, VIC and ACT have
renewables targets
Govt owned renewables
platforms (Snowy, Clean Co)
Increasing ARENA and CEFC
funding
Potential for transmission
investment could be helpful
Technical
Transmission system a huge
constraint (connection,
losses and curtailment)
Solar is very challenging
Wind site quality reducing,
offset by technology
advances
Increasing complexity in
planning processes
Market capacity to deliver is
under stress
Commercial
Traditional PPA market is fairly
stagnant, tenors tightening
Government CfDsare likely
future option.
Potential for market over-
supply
LCOE becomes key focus
Connection costs and time
Curtailment and loss factors
Banks are more curious about
projects after some set backs
014
Strategic Considerations
Australian Market
Patience is required
Appropriate
scale in 1 –5
years?
Short term
headwinds
due to grid
and politics
Sources of
debt and
equity (cost
and flexibility)
LCOE focus –
procurement
and
operational
excellence
Trading
capability
and off-take
consolidation
Pipeline
diversity and
readiness
Technology
flexibility
(solar, wind,
storage)
Access to
capability
gaps (build or
buy)
015
Strategic Considerations
New Zealand Market
Opportunity will knock
.
Market activity
is increasing as
supply tightens
TLT is the only
credible
independent
developer in NZ
Government
ambitions may
lead to
opportunities
Path to market
option via
strategic
partnerships
(e.g. Genesis)
Repowering
thinking started
-will provide
useful skills for
Australia
TLT has
experience with
large rotor,
modern turbines
Growing our
pipeline of
quality options–
TLT can respond
to market
requirements
Operation of
older assets on
tough sites is a
key skill
016
Summary
•Strategy of securing a range of development options and
delivering into opportunities, is being successfully executed
•Immediate focus is on Dundonnelldelivery, the performance of
the operational business and the next growth options
•Core Australia investment thesis remains valid
•New Zealand will provide further opportunity
•Maintaining a diverse portfolio of high quality development
options will allow various growth opportunities to be captured
•Relationships with suppliers/stakeholders remain critical
to gain early access to technology advances
•Funding flexibility and cost diversity is required to
compete –debt and equity funding structures can be
different for each project (development or operational)
•Corporate scale efficiencies will be important to capture
additional levelisedcost of energy advantage
Thank you
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018
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