Global Dairy Update April 2019
• Fonterra to recognise high performing farms as part of new
approach to sustainability.
1
GLOBAL DAIRY
UPDATE
APRIL 2019
• Significant monthly production declines
in New Zealand and Australia. Monthly
production eased in the US and holding at
current levels in EU.
• Exports from Australia, New Zealand and the
EU continue to grow. US exports continue
to ease.
• Imports into Asia and China show strong
growth. Latin America and Middle East &
Africa down.
• Fonterra’s milk collections in March were
130 million kgMS, 9% down on last year.
• Fonterra is a finalist in the prestigious Corporate Register
Reporting Awards 2019 for its Sustainability Report.
• Pitching in to protect mudfish.
KEY DATES
Late May 2019
Q3 Business Update
1 June 2019
Measurement Date for Share Standard
2019/20 Season
September 2019
FY19 Annual Results Announcement
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
%
%
%%
%%%
Production change for
March 2019 compared
to March 2018
Production change for
March 2019 compared
to March 2018
Production change for
February 2019 compared
to February 2018
Production change for
February 2019 compared
to February 2018
Production change
for the 12 months to
March 2019
Production change
for the 12 months to
March 2019
Production change
for the 12 months to
February 2019
Production change
for the 12 months to
February 2019
0138
401
0
3
2
OUR MARKETS
GLOBAL PRODUCTION
SIGNIFICANT MONTHLY
PRODUCTION DECLINES
IN NEW ZEALAND AND
AUSTRALIA. MONTHLY
PRODUCTION EASED IN
THE US AND HOLDING AT
CURRENT LEVELS IN EU
New Zealand milk
production was down 8%
in March compared to the
same period last year.
New Zealand recorded its
second warmest March
on record. Dry conditions
continued across most of
the North Island and parts
of the South Island. Soil
moisture was below normal
for most of the North Island
and a large part of the
South Island.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to March was 3% higher than
last year, which was a weak
production year.
Fonterra collections are
reported for March, see page
5 for details.
Australia milk production
decreased 13% in February
compared to the same
period last year.
Production for the 12 months
to February is down 4% on
the previous 12 months.
Continued drought
conditions and high input
costs continue to put
pressure on Australian
milk production as a result
of reduced supplemental
feeding, increased cow
cull rates and farm exits.
Dairy Australia continue to
forecast a milk production
decline of between 7% and
9% for the season.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
March, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production
in February remained
unchanged from the same
period last year.
Eighteen of the 28 member
countries saw positive
year-on-year growth
including Romania, Estonia
and Poland, at 7%, 5%
and 4% respectively. The
UK, Bulgaria, and Ireland
increased 3% compared to
the same period last year.
Key exporting countries
where production declined
were Austria, France and The
Netherlands, at 6%, 3% and
2% respectively.
Production for the 12 months
to February was up less than
1% compared to the same
period last year.
US milk production
decreased 0.4% in March,
compared to the same
period last year. This is the
first year-on-year decline
since March 2013.
Tight margins, high cow
cull rates, record farm
closures and weather issues
combined to push US
production into negative
territory for the month.
Milk production for the 12
months to March was just
under 1% higher compared
to the same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
%%
3
OUR MARKETS
GLOBAL EXPORTS
EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA,
NEW ZEALAND AND THE EU
CONTINUE TO GROW. USA
EXPORTS CONTINUE TO EASE
Total New Zealand dairy
exports increased by 27%,
or 71,000 MT, in February
compared to the same
period last year. This was
primarily driven by WMP
and butter, up 39,000 MT.
Other than a slight decline
in WPC and caseinate, all
other products were up for
the month.
Exports for the 12 months
to February were up 4%, or
131,000 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by AMF, fluid
milk products, and WMP, up
a combined 135,000 MT.
EU dairy exports increased
by 12%, or 53,000 MT, in
January compared to the
same period last year. This
was primarily driven by SMP,
and fluid milk products up a
combined 47,000 MT. This
was offset by declines in
whey powder and WMP, of a
combined 7,000 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to January were up 1%, or
65,000 MT, on the previous
comparable period. SMP,
lactose and infant formula
were up a combined
149,000 MT. This was offset
by a 110,000 MT decline in
fluid milk products and WMP.
US dairy exports declined
12%, or 23,000 MT, in
February compared to the
same period last year. This
was primarily driven by SMP,
whey powder, lactose and
WPC, down a combined
31,000 MT. This was offset by
increases in cheese and fluid
milk products of 7,000 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to February 2019 were up
6%, or 127,000 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
Most products remain
ahead of the previous
comparable period. SMP and
WMP were up a combined
103,000 MT. This was offset
by a decline in whey powder
of 38,000 MT. Most of the
decline is due to lower
exports to China.
Australia dairy exports
increased 7%, or 4,000 MT,
in February compared to
the same period last year.
This growth was due to fluid
milk products and infant
formula up a combined
7,000 MT. This was offset by
a decline in WMP and SMP
of 4,000 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to February were up 7%, or
53,000 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
Infant formula, fluid milk
products, and whey powder
make up most of the growth
in Australian exports, up a
combined 46,000 MT.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
671
4
Export change for the 12
months to February 2019
Export change for the 12
months to February 2019
Export change for the 12
months to February 2019
Export change for the 12
months to January 2019
%
%%%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
GLOBAL IMPORTS
IMPORTS INTO ASIA AND
CHINA SHOW STRONG
GROWTH. LATIN AMERICA
AND MIDDLE EAST &
AFRICA DOWN
Latin America dairy import
volumes¹ decreased 27%,
or 44,000 MT, in January
compared to the same
period last year. WMP was
up 9,000 MT. Almost all
other products were down,
principally SMP, cheese,
whey powder and lactose
with an aggregate decline of
43,000 MT.
Imports for the 12 months to
January 2019 were up 2%, or
40,000 MT, compared to the
same period the previous year.
SMP, fluid milk products, WMP,
infant formula and MPC were
up a combined 64,000 MT
offset by declines in cheese,
AMF, whey powder and other
powders of 21,000 MT.
Asia (excluding China) dairy
import volumes¹ increased
5%, or 21,000 MT, in January
compared to the same period
last year. SMP, WMP and fluid
milk products were up but
offset by declines in whey
powder, ice cream and cheese.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were up 6%, or
270,000 MT, compared to
the same period the previous
year. This growth continues
to be driven by fluid products,
WMP, SMP, lactose, cultured
products and infant formula
up a combined 253,000 MT.
The import market remains in
a solid growth phase.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 7% or 24,000 MT
in January 2019 compared
to the same period last
year. Small growth in infant
formula, fluid milk products,
cultured products and AMF
was offset by declines in most
other product, principally
cheese, SMP butter, and other
powders down a combined
27,000 MT.
Imports for the 12 months to
January 2019 were down 6%,
or 260,000 MT, compared to
the same period the previous
year. The reduction was driven
by fluid and fresh dairy and
cheese, down a combined
225,000 MT.
China dairy import volumes
increased 11%, or 20,000 MT,
in February compared to the
same period last year. This
was driven by increases across
a broad range of products,
particularly fluid milk products,
SMP, WMP and lactose up
a combined 26,000 MT but
offset by whey powder which
was down 7,000 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to February were up 7%, or
204,000 MT, compared to
the same period last year.
Strong demand out of China
continued with imports across
all key categories, in particular,
WMP, SMP and infant formula
and lactose, which are up a
combined 176,000 MT.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
Import change for 12
months to February 2019
Import change for 12
months to January 2019
Import change for 12
months to January 2019
Import change for 12
months to January 2019
67
6
2
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%
%%%
%%%
Season to date
1 July to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Decrease for March 2019
compared to March 2018
Decrease for March 2019
compared to March 2018
Decrease for March 2019
compared to March 2018
Decrease for March 2019
compared to March 2018
273149
18322
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2018/19 SEASON
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION
Fonterra’s collection across
Australia for the nine
months to 31 March reached
99 million kgMS, down
18% on the same period
last season.
Fonterra collections in March
were 8 million kgMS, down
27% on March last season.
Fonterra’s share of monthly
collections continues to
reduce due to adverse
on-farm and weather
conditions, increased cow
cull rates, farm exits in key
regions, cost of inputs and
milk collection losses in a
highly competitive market.
North Island collection
in March was 68 million
kgMS, down 14% on March
last season.
Continuing warm and dry
conditions for most of the
month across many North
Island regions adversely
impacted production. Rainfall
late in March improved
conditions, but nearing the
end of the season this may
have only a limited impact
on milk production.
Collection for the season
to date reached 806 million
kgMS, up 2% on the same
period last season.
South Island collection
in March was 62 million
kgMS, down 3% on March
last season.
Central South Island
production remained strong
in March. The lower South
Island was affected by warm
and dry conditions through
most of March, adversely
impacting milk production.
Collection for the season
to date reached 540 million
kgMS, up 3% on the same
period last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
milk collection in March was
130 million kgMS, down 9%
on March last season.
Above-average temperatures
and insufficient rainfall
across many regions
continued to adversely affect
milk production in March.
Collection for the season to
date reached 1,345 million
kgMS, up 2%, due largely to
favourable spring conditions
which are now being offset
with significant decreases in
February and March.
Full season forecast remains
at 1,510 million kgMS.
%
%
%
%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
MAR
JAN
JUN
AUG
OCT
JAN
MAR
JUN
AUG
OCT
MAR
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices
and New Zealand
dollar trend
The New Zealand dollar
adjusted lower in March
following the Reserve
Bank's shift closer to easing
monetary policy settings.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
16 April 2019:
The next trading event will be held on 7 May 2019. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
1.4
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,507
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
15.6
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 6,460/MT
3.6
RENNET CASEIN
USD 5,544/MT
3.2
BUTTER
USD 3,269/MT
0.5
WMP
USD 4,319/MT
1.7
CHEDDAR
USD 2,482/MT
0.5
SMP
USD 6,126/MT
4.4
AMF
15,567
MT
LATEST AUCTION
556,430
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
OUR PERFORMANCE
The Co-operative
Difference
In line with key themes
emerging from its new
strategy, Fonterra has
announced details of its new
approach to sustainability
on farm. The Co-operative
Difference will make it easier
for farmers to know what is
expected today and in the
future, as well as recognise
those farmers who are
taking steps to produce
high quality milk in a more
sustainable way.
The farmer-owned Co-
operative signalled its
new strategy will put
sustainability at the heart of
everything it does, empower
the Co-op to maximise
its New Zealand heritage
and uniqueness, and help
it to remain a globally
competitive New Zealand
co-operative.
Co-operative Affairs
Managing Director Mike
Cronin says, “Sustainability
for our Co-op is about more
than the environment. It’s
about looking after our
people, caring for animals,
adapting to changing
customer and consumer
expectations, and respecting
the communities and land
where we live and work.
“We are proud of the global
reputation Fonterra farmers
have for producing high
quality milk. Farmers have
made tremendous progress
on farm to date and The
Co-operative Difference will
help us take that good work
to the next level so we can
continue to create goodness
for generations to come.”
The Co-operative Difference
will support the Co-op’s
emerging strategy
direction by:
• recognising farmers who
go beyond the minimum
requirements to supply
high-quality milk, care for
their animals, protect the
environment, support their
people and community,
and engage in their
Co-operative;
• helping other farmers
follow suit by making
existing on-farm
requirements easier
to understand and by
providing tailored, industry-
leading support services to
those who want to improve;
• providing more information
and advance notice to
farmers about our future
aspirations so they can plan
and progress towards our
shared ambitions;
• streamlining reporting and
auditing to save farmers’
time and energy, and
help the Co-op protect its
market position, strengthen
its sustainability claims, and
drive demand for products
that customers and
consumers value most; and,
• supporting farms wanting
to improve, while taking a
firmer line with those that
persistently fail to meet
minimum standards, and
exercising our rights to
suspend collection.
“Consumers and customers
increasingly want to know
that their food choices
support a sustainable
future. How we farm and
make our products needs
to reflect these aspirations
so we can remain a globally
competitive New Zealand
co-operative.
Our Co-operative’s strong
dairy heritage and pasture-
based system separates
us from the pack but we
must continue to earn our
customers’ and consumers’
trust and loyalty. The Co-
operative Difference will
help us share the good work
happening on farm through
our Trusted Goodness™
commitment,” says
Mr Cronin.
The Co-operative
Difference was developed
in consultation with farmers
who wanted their Co-op
to simplify and reduce
complexity of requirements,
provide direction on priority
on-farm improvements,
and increase pride in the
Co-op by recognising high
performing farms in a
way that aligns with the
Co-op’s values.
OUR CO-OP
8
GLOBAL
RECOGNITION
FOR FONTERRA
SUSTAINABILITY
REPORT
PITCHING IN
TO PROTECT
MUDFISH
Fonterra is a finalist in the
prestigious Corporate Register
Reporting Awards 2019,
which recognise the very
best in corporate reporting
worldwide.
As the only New Zealand
company represented this
year, the co-operative’s
Sustainability Report 2017
has been shortlisted in
the top 10 for the ‘Best
Report’ and ‘Openness and
Honesty’ categories.
Fonterra’s Director of
Sustainability Carolyn
Mortland says the team
is delighted.
“Entering awards like this helps
us to see where we’re at and
where we can get better in
terms of sharing our social and
environmental commitments.
To be named a finalist
reassures us that we’re on the
right track, and all the credit
goes to the team who worked
on the report,” says Mortland.
“We recognise the importance
of being open with all
stakeholders about our
commitments and the
progress we’re making to help
build a better future for our
communities. Our annual
Sustainability Report, which is
independently assured, is one
of the ways we do that.”
Launched in 2007 to identify
and acknowledge excellence
in corporate responsibility
reporting, the CR Reporting
Awards are the only
independent, global annual
awards in this field.
The awards are organised by
CorporateRegister.com.
The more than 50,000
reporting stakeholders who
are registered users of the
website are entitled to vote
for the best awards across the
eight categories. Online voting
is open from mid-March,
with the winners due to be
announced in May 2019.
The Best Report category
looks at five essential elements
– content, communication,
credibility, commitment, and
comparability – while the
Openness and Honesty award
is for the report that gives a
balanced picture, telling both
the good and bad news.
Further information about
the Co-operative’s progress
is available at www.fonterra.
com/sustainability.
They may be tiny, slimy and
reclusive, but the Canterbury
mudfish are well worth
protecting.
Ko ̄waro, as they’re named in
te reo Ma ̄ori, are a treasured
species for local iwi Nga ̄i
Tahu and having more of
them around helps protect
other freshwater natives
such as ko ̄ura (crayfish) and
ka ̄kahi (mussels).
Unfortunately, they’re also rare
and endangered.
Fonterra is pitching in to
help save the mudfish by
supporting Environment
Canterbury and other
groups with a landmark
project at Haldon Pasture
Springs, located between
the Waikirikiri/Selwyn River
and the Hororata River. It’s
part of the co-operative’s
50 catchments initiative,
which involves working
collaboratively with local
stakeholders to help restore
50 freshwater catchments
across New Zealand.
“As we increase our
involvement with communities
around the country to improve
the health of our waterways, it
was really important for us to
support the efforts to protect
the Canterbury Mudfish,”
says Charles Fergusson,
Fonterra’s Head of Farm
Source for Canterbury, Tasman
and Marlborough.
Fonterra is providing funding
to Environment Canterbury
to help them implement
innovative technology in what
is the first project of its kind in
the Southern Hemisphere. The
installation of an electric trout
barrier will allow mudfish to
expand into the lower reaches
of the site and stop the
predation by trout, helping to
create a safe nursery for future
projects and replenishing
drought-affected areas.
It will lead to a 10-fold increase
in spring-fed stream habitat
for the threatened mudfish –
going from 880m2 to 8,000m2
– in the Waikirikiri/Selwyn
River catchment.
Environment Canterbury
believe the technology
could revolutionise native
fish conservation at sites
threatened by trout across
the region.
“We are delighted to be
partnering with Fonterra on
this exciting and ground-
breaking conservation project,”
says Johannes Welsch,
Environment Canterbury’s
Selwyn Waihora Zone
Delivery Lead.
“Working collaboratively in
this way is a perfect example
of how, by joining forces, we
can make biodiversity and
species protection not just a
priority, but a practical reality.”
The project is expected to be
complete early May 2019, one
year after its launch.
Fonterra’s overall work to
improve water quality in
New Zealand is centred
around six commitments,
which continue to drive action
across the country. Ongoing
guidance is provided by the
co-operative’s independent
Sustainability Advisory Panel,
chaired by Sir Rob Fenwick.
Sustainability
Report
FOR THE YEAR ENDING 31 JULY 2017
FONTERRA CO-OPERATIVE GROUP LIMITED
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL JUN MAY FEB JAN MAR SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR JAN FEB DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG
MT s
AVERAGE
9
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to February; New Zealand and US to March.
NOTE: Data for EU to January; New Zealand, Australia and US to February.
NOTE: Data for Latin America, Asia, Middle East & Africa to January; China to February.
SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
NOV DEC JAN
JUL AUG MAY SEP FEB
OCT JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
MARCH
2019
MARCH
2018
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2018/19
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2017/18
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
129.6142.6(9.2%)1,345.21,313.82.4%
North Island67.979.1(14.1%)805.5791.91.7%
South Island61.663.5(3.0%)539.7521.93.4%
Fonterra Australia8.311. 3(26.5%)99.1120.5(17.8%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(16 APRIL 2019)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2018)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
15,567556,430
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
(14.2%)15.3%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,5073,045
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(5.2%)(8.7%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(1.4%)–
Fonterra GDT Results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
LME (Liquid Milk
Equivalent)
A standard measure of the
amount of milk (in litres)
allocated to each product
based on the amount of fat
and protein (“milk solids”) in
the product relative to the
amount of fat and protein in
a standardised raw milk.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
GLOSSARY
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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